Oct. 1-4 YouGov Writeup

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KILLING AL-AWLAKI RAISES OBAMA’S APPROVAL ON

TERRORISM EIGHT POINTS

Last week, a U.S. drone strike in Yemen killed Anwar al-Awlaki, the English-

speaking imam linked to several attempted terrorist attacks on the United States.

Al-Awlaki was an American citizen, but that doesn’t bother many respondents in

the latest Economist /YouGov Poll. Asked whether the military should try to kill

U.S. citizens suspected of being terrorists, or arrest them to be tried in civilian

courts, 43% would have the suspect targeted; 36% would give the American sus-

pect the Constitutional right to trial.

Should betargeted for

killing

Should be triedin a court

of law Not sure

43%

36%

21%

Should terror suspects who are U.S. citizens be deliberately killed byU.S. military forces or should they be granted the constitutional right

given to U.S. citizens to be tried in a court of law?

Majorities of Republicans, conservatives, and those over 65 years old believe terror

suspects should be killed, even if they are U.S. citizens. Men favor killing such

suspects 51% to 32%, women divide 36% in favor and 39% opposed.

As they did a year ago, Americans think any U.S. citizens captured as terror sus-

pects should be treated as enemy combatants, not given the rights of U.S. citizens.

Since Al-Awlaki’s death, the President’s approval rating for handling terrorism has

risen, just as it did after the killing of Osama bin Laden in May. In this poll, 52%

approve of the way President Obama is handling terrorism, up eight points from last

WW W.YOUGOV.CO M 285 HAMILTON AVE , SUITE 200, PAL O ALTO, CA 94301 1



week. And though only 36% of Republicans approve of the President’s handling of

terrorism, that is the highest rating Barack Obama gets from them on any issue.

President Obama's Performance on Terrorism

P e r c e n t o f R e s p o n d e n t s

"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obamais handling the issue of terrorism?"

q

q

Approve: 52%

Disapprove: 37%

20

30

40

50

60

70

2009 2010 2011

Approval of the President’s handling of terrorism rose 15 points after the killing of

Osama bin Laden.

However, ten years after the start of the war in Afghanistan, which began in the

wake of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, the public is not as positive about

the President’s performance managing that concern. Just 36% this week approve

of how the President is handling the war in Afghanistan, and half disapprove. Ap-

proval for handling the war in Afghanistan has not changed significantly in the last

week.




President Obama's Performance on the War in Afghanistan


"Do you approve or disapprove of the wayBarack Obama is handling the war in Afghanistan?"

q

q

Approve: 36%

Disapprove: 50%

20

30

40

50

60

2009 2010 2011

DESPITE AL-AWLAKI’S DEATH, 64% STILL SEE

AL-QAEDA AS A SERIOUS THREAT

Although nearly half of those in the latest Economist /YouGov Poll say the country

is safer now than in 2001, 64% still believe Al-Qaeda is a serious threat to the

country. And just about half say that a terrorist attack in the next 12 month is at

least somewhat likely.

But the public is not as fearful today as it was in the week following the killing

of Osama bin Laden. Then just about two-thirds of the public said they thought a

terrorist attack was likely.




May 2−4, 2011 October 1−4, 2011

22%

44%

17%

4%

12%14%

39%

24%

8%

15%

Very likely (more than 50%)

Somewhat likely (10% to 50%)

Not very likely (1% to 10%)Very unlikely (less than 1%)

Not sure

What do you think are the chances of a terrorist attack againstthe United States in the next 12 months?

Republicans worry more about the possibility of another terrorist attack than Democrats

do.

Fewer believe al-Qaeda is a threat to the U.S. than did in May. Then, 72% described

al-Qaeda as a serious threat.

May 2−4, 2011 October 1−4, 2011

24%

48%

15%

2%

11%

21%

43%

20%

4%

12%

An immediate and serious threat to the United States

A somewhat serious threat to the United States

A minor threat to the United States

Not a threat to the United States

Not sure

How serious a threat do you think Al Qaedaposes to the United States?




However, many Americans aren’t sure the Obama Administration policies have

made the country safer. Even though a majority of the public approves of the way

Barack Obama is handling the issue of terrorism, less than a third think his policies

have made the U.S. safer. One in five believes they have made the country less safe.

A NEW GOP FRONT-RUNNER: HERMAN CAIN LEADS

THE FIELD — WITH AND WITHOUT CHRIS CHRISTIE

The leaders in the Republican race for the GOP presidential nomination continue

to change. And this week, despite the media frenzy over the possible candidacy

of the Governor of New Jersey (who took himself out of contention Tuesday), it

is Florida straw poll winner and businessman Herman Cain who now leads the

Economist /YouGov Poll.

Given a list of announced candidates and three unannounced possibilities (New

Jersey’s Chris Christie, former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin and former New York

City Mayor Rudy Giuliani), Cain gets 21% of the vote from registered voters who

say they will vote in a 2012 Republican primary or caucus. His closest challenger

is former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, with Texas Governor Rick Perry,

Texas Congressman Ron Paul and Christie at or near double digits. Reallocating the

second choices of those who favor Christie, Palin and Giuliani changes little in therelative standing — although it does move former House Speaker Newt Gingrich

into the second tier.




If you had to choose one, which of these individuals would you want

to be the Republican nominee for president in 2012? (Registered voters who

are likely to vote in Republican primary or caucus)

For ’announced candidates only’ column, chart displays second choice candidate for respondents

whose first choice is an unannounced candidate

Announced Announced candidates

unannounced candidates only

Sarah Palin 5% —

Mitt Romney 17% 21%

Newt Gingrich 7% 10%

Michele Bachmann 3% 5%

Jon Huntsman 3% 3%

Ron Paul 8% 9%

Rudy Giuliani 5% —Herman Cain 21% 26%

Rick Santorum 1% 1%

Rick Perry 10% 12%

Chris Christie 9% —

Other 3% 4%

No preference 8% 9%

GOP voters have been fickle in their choices in recent weeks. When Perry an-

nounced, he soared to the top, displacing Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bach-

mann, and then faded. Christie emerged, and now Cain. One constant has been

Romney’s continued presence at or near the top of the field.




P e r c e n t o f R e g i s t e r e d V o t e r s L i k e l y t o V o t e

i n R e p u b l i c a n P r i m a r y o r C a u c u s

Preferred Republican Nominee for President"If you had to choose one, which of these individuals would you want to be

the Republican nominee for president in 2012?"

Perry: 10%

Romney: 17%

Bachmann: 3%

Cain: 21%

Paul: 8%

Christie: 9%

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

qq q

q q

q

q q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

0

1 0

2 0

3

0

August 2011 September 2011 October 2011

Bachmann and Perry had been favorites of the Tea Party, whose identifiers comprise

42% of Republican primary voters. This week, of all the announced candidates 38%

of Tea Party identifiers favor Cain, 15% each choose Perry and Romney. But Cain

does well even among those who are not Tea Partiers. He is the choice of 17% of

them, trailing only Romney’s 25%.




If you had to choose one, which of these individuals would you want

to be the Republican nominee for president in 2012? (Announced candidates

only; chart displays second choice candidate for respondents whose first choice is an unannounced

candidate)

Registered voters who are likely

to vote in Republican primary or caucus

All Tea Party followers Non-Tea Party followers

Mitt Romney 21% 15% 25%

Newt Gingrich 10% 11% 8%

Michele Bachmann 5% 5% 5%

Jon Huntsman 3% 2% 4%

Ron Paul 9% 2% 13%

Herman Cain 26% 38% 17%

Rick Santorum 1% 1% 2%

Rick Perry 12% 15% 10%

Other 4% 6% 3%

No preference 9% 5% 12%

OBAMA APPROVAL IS AT ONLY 39%, BUT HE LEADS

POSSIBLE GOP CHALLENGERS

President Obama’s approval rating remains low, as half the country sees the econ-

omy continuing to worsen. In this week’s Economist /YouGov Poll, 39% approve of

the way the President is handling his job overall. 53% disapprove.





"Do you approve or disapprove of the wayBarack Obama is handling his job as President?"

Obama Approval

Approve: 39%

Disapprove: 53%

q

q

1

0

2 0

3 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

7

0

2009 2010 2011

However, the President still leads at least two of his Republicans challengers, and

runs slightly better in hypothetical general election match-ups than he did just last

week, perhaps buoyed by the rising ratings he received in handling terrorism follow-

ing the killing of Muslim cleric Anwar al-Awlaki, linked to several terrorist attacks

on the United States. This week, President Obama runs ahead of Texas Governor

Rick Perry by 10 points among registered voters, including those who lean one wayor the other. Last week, he led Perry by only four points.




September 24−27, 2011 October 1−4, 2011

45%

41%

7% 7%

48%

38%

8% 7%

Barack Obama

Rick Perry

Other

Not sure

If the 2012 presidential election were being held today,and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat,

and Rick Perry, the Republican, would you vote forBarack Obama or Rick Perry?

(Registered voters only)

And the President leads former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney by one. Last

week he trailed Romney by three.

September 24−27, 2011 October 1−4, 2011

42%45%

7% 6%

44% 43%

6% 7%

Barack Obama

Mitt Romney

Other

Not sure

If the 2012 presidential election were being held today,and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat,and Mitt Romney, the Republican, would you vote for

Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

(Registered voters only)

Americans see Romney as more electable than Perry.




TWO YEARS AFTER THE PRESIDENT’S NOBEL PEACE

PRIZE, 48% SAY THE PRIZE WAS A MISTAKE

Americans are even less likely today to approve of the Nobel Committee’s decision

to award the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize to President Barack Obama than they were

two years ago, immediately after the award was announced. And according to the

latest Economist /YouGov Poll, their opinion of the decisions made by the Nobel

Committee — which is about to announce this year’s winner — has also gotten

worse.

Two years ago, a plurality of the public believed that the Nobel Peace Prize Com-

mittee generally made good decisions. This year, opinion is much more divided,

and the percentage that agrees the committee makes good decisions has dropped 17points.

October 11−13, 2009 October 1−4, 2011

44%

27%29%

27%30%

43%

Good decisions

Bad decisions

Not sure

In general, do you think the Nobel Peace Prize Committeemakes good decisions about who wins the prize?

(Asked of half of respondents)

There is a very partisan divide. Democrats say the Nobel Committee makes good

decisions 47% to 8%, Republicans say it doesn’t by an even larger margin.

That question was asked of half the sample in each poll. The other half was asked

how they felt about the committee after being reminded that the Nobel Peace Prize

has gone to people like Jimmy Carter, Nelson Mandela and the Dalai Lama. In




2009, Al Gore was on the list, in 2011, Barack Obama’s name replaced Gore’s. The

Nobel Committee fared just about as poorly when names of winners were included

— and here, too, approval has declined since 2009.

October 11−13, 2009 October 1−4, 2011

50%

26%24%

35%33% 32%

Good decisions

Bad decisions

Not sure

In the past, winners of the Nobel Peace Prize have included peoplelike the Dalai Lama, Jimmy Carter, Mikhail Gorbachev, Barack Obamaand Nelson Mandela. In general, do you think the Nobel Peace Prize

Committee makes good decisions about who wins the prize?*

(Asked of half of respondents)

*2009 wording mentioned Al Gore instead of Barack Obama

Many Americans believe the decision to award Barack Obama the 2009 Peace Prize

was simply wrong. Twice as many now disapprove as approve (in 2009, disapproval

outpaced approval by only 10 points.




October 11−13, 2009 October 1−4, 2011

35%

45%

20%

26%

51%

22%

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

In 2009, President Barack Obama was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama

receiving the Nobel Peace Prize?

Although a majority of the President’s partisans approve of the award, 20% of them

don’t and another 20% of Democrats aren’t sure. And while Democrats might

approve in principle, most aren’t sure the President really deserved the Peace Prize.

Half of Democrats are happy he won, but think the Nobel Committee should have

waited longer before considering him. And 16% of Democrats say the prize was a

mistake.That percentage is much higher among the public overall, 48% of whom now say

the award to Obama was a mistake — up seven points from two years ago.




October 11−13, 2009 October 1−4, 2011

20%

39%41%

16%

35%

48%

I think Barack Obama deserved the Nobel Peace Prize

I am happy Barack Obama received the prize, but the Nobel Committee really should havewaited until he had been president longer and had accomplished more

I think that awarding the prize to Barack Obama

was a mistake; he did not deserve it

Which of these statements best describes how you feel aboutBarack Obama being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2009?

THE TRIAL OF MICHAEL JACKSON’S DOCTOR: BY TWO

TO ONE, THOSE WITH AN OPINION WOULD VOTE

“GUILTY”

More than eight in ten American adults are following the trial of Dr. Conrad Murray,charged with involuntary manslaughter in the death of Michael Jackson more than

two years ago. And in the latest Economist /YouGov Poll, twice as many say that if

they were on the jury they would vote “guilty” than “not guilty.”




Guilty Not guilty Not sure

38%

18%

45%

If you were a member of the jury in the trial of Conrad Murray,how would you vote on the charge of involuntary manslaughter?

(Asked if respondent is aware of Conrad Murray tr ial)

Nearly half say they have not yet formed an opinion.

Women are more likely than men and blacks are more likely than whites to say they

think Murray is guilty.


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Oct. 1-4 YouGov Writeup