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Ocean Salmon Industry Group
Preseason Planning Meeting
for
Ocean Recreational and Commercial Troll
Salmon Fisheries off Oregon
BRIEFING DOCUMENTS:
• 2019 Season Summary
• 2020 Management Process Schedule
• 2019 Escapement Estimates
• 2020 Stock Abundance Forecasts
• and other materials
All data in this packet should be considered
preliminary and is subject to change
Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife
www.dfw.state.or.us/mrp/salmon/
Hallmark Inn and Resort
Newport, Oregon
February 27, 2020
Websites and Contact Information:• ODFW Websites and Contacts:
• Marine Resources Program, Newport: (541) 867-4741
• Marine Resources Program website:
www.dfw.state.or.us/MRP/ (ODFW ocean salmon page is linked from here)
• Sign-up link for email and/or text notifications:
https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/ORDFW/subscriber/new?topic_id=
ORDFW_94
• Chris Kern: (503) 947-6209 [email protected]
• Christine Mallette: (503) 947-6213 [email protected]
• Craig Foster: (971) 673-6026 [email protected]
• Eric Schindler: (541) 867-0300 x252 [email protected]
• Justine Kenyon-Benson: (541) 867-0300 x271
• N. of Falcon Commercial Mandatory Troll Reporting: (541) 867-0300 x271
• S. of Humbug Mt. Commercial Troll Reporting: (541) 867-0300 x252 or
• Pacific Fishery Management Council (PFMC):
• Main website: www.pcouncil.org
• Salmon website: https://www.pcouncil.org/salmon/background/
• Contacts page including staff emails, link to public comment e-portal, and
rosters: https://www.pcouncil.org/contact-us/contact/
• International Pacific Halibut Commission website: https://iphc.int/
• Area 2A commercial fishery and permit information available at:
https://www.iphc.int/management/fisheries/directed-commercial-
fisheries/directed-iphc-regulatory-area-2a
• NOAA Fisheries:
• SW Region: Pacific Highly Migratory Species Permit website:
https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/permit/pacific-highly-migratory-species-
permits
• Salmon Fisheries Hotline: (800) 662-9825
• Salmon Fisheries webpage: https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/west-
coast/sustainable-fisheries/salmon-and-steelhead-fisheries-west-coast
1
Ca
tch
Are
a2019
2018
2017
2009-1
82019
2018
2017
2009-1
82019
2018
2017
2009-1
8
Co
lum
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Riv
er
14,6
95
7,6
99
8,5
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oo
k21,1
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706
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7,9
41
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wp
ort
35,1
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23,5
63
10,2
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18,4
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1,0
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64
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90
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30
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os
Ba
y18,9
69
14,3
10
12,8
16
16,2
32
1,2
31
793
573
2,8
91
9,5
90
4,4
53
3,3
96
3,8
85
Bro
okin
gs
4,3
57
7,0
00
2,0
12
9,6
27
572
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93
506
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542
18
-
271
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go
n T
ota
l94,2
36
63,8
31
42,3
09
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94
6,6
06
4,9
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4,5
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10,2
34
66,3
13
25,6
72
21,2
35
34,0
46
Ca
tch
Are
a2019
2018
2017
2009-1
82019
2018
2017
2009-1
82019
2018
2017
2009-1
8
Co
lum
bia
Riv
er
193
98
342
446
558
333
2,6
27
5,7
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2,5
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oo
k144
179
182
438
567
465
717
3,9
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-
-
-
459
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wp
ort
1,6
75
1,0
43
1,2
64
1,7
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17,4
38
24,2
88
-
-
-
633
Co
os
Ba
y388
778
155
2,2
67
3,1
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734
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84
-
-
-
166
Bro
okin
gs
234
475
109
356
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329
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-
-
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-
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go
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ota
l2,6
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2,5
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28,9
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21,8
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66,0
47
1,4
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92
470
3,8
32
Eff
ort
(B
oa
t D
ays)
Ch
ino
ok (
Nu
mb
er
of
Fis
h)
Co
ho
(N
um
be
r o
f F
ish
)
Oc
ea
n S
alm
on
Eff
ort
an
d L
an
din
g E
sti
ma
tes
fo
r 2
01
9 w
ith
Co
mp
ari
so
n t
o 2
01
8, 2
01
7, a
nd
20
09
-20
18
Av
era
ge
.
Recr
eatio
nal O
cean
Salm
on
Fis
heries
Eff
ort
(A
ng
ler
Tri
ps)
Ch
ino
ok (
Nu
mb
er
of
Fis
h)
Co
ho
(N
um
be
r o
f F
ish
)
Com
merc
ial O
cean
Tro
ll S
alm
on
Fis
heries
2
Oregon’s Ocean Salmon Management Areas, Major Ports of Landing,
and Klamath Management Zone Designations
2
3
4
5
6
7
• Underlined and italicized 2019 observations are
low sample sizes for the time and area (<50 observations).
8
NOV.
Newport
Coos Bay
Astoria
Newport
Garibaldi
Bandon
Florence
Pacific City
Depoe Bay
Charleston
Port Orford
Brookings
Ilwaco, WA
Cape Falcon
Leadbetter Pt.
Humbug Mt.
Winchester Bay
JULYMAY JUNE AUG. SEPT. OCT.APRILMAR.
4/20-6/30: 1 Halibut per 2 Chinook
+ 1 Halibut & 35 Halibut/trip
Troll Halibut Regulations (overlay on salmon seasons):
Quota: 51,022 lbs. (head-on)
Catch: 49,392 lbs. (WA = 40,887 lbs.; OR = 8,473 lbs.; and CA = 32 lbs.)
7/1-18: 1 Halibut per 2 Chinook
+ 1 Halibut & 15 Halibut/trip
7/19-26:1 Halibut per 2 Chinook
+ 1 Halibut & 4 Halibut/trip
7/27-10/31: 1 Halibut per 2 Chinook
+ 1 Halibut & 2 Halibut/trip
9
10
11
12
13
March 23 PFMC Public Options Hearing Westport, WA
* Adopt state waters ocean salmon fishery regulations
* Ocean and Columbia River
North of Falcon (Public Meeting)
Hilton
Reedsport, OR
PFMC Public Options Hearing
* Public input on 2020 season alternatives
* Public input on 2020 season alternatives
Ridgefield, WA
Red Lion
Ukiah, CA
Coos Bay, OR
* 2020 Forecasts
February 27 CDFW Public Meeting Santa Rosa, CA
April 3-10 Pacific Fishery Management Council
April 1
Salem, OR
* Ocean Salmon (informational)
2020 Ocean Fishery Process Schedule
* 2020 Salmon season discussions
February 27 Ocean Salmon Industry Group Meeting
* 2020 Forecasts
Newport, OR
March 16
March 24
* Public input on 2020 season alternatives
* Adopt 2020 ocean salmon alternatives for public review
PFMC Public Options Hearing
Oregon Fish and Wildlife CommissionMarch 20
March 23
Vancouver, WA
* Adopt 2020 ocean salmon fishery regulations
April 17 Oregon Fish and Wildlife Commission
* 2020 Forecasts
* 2020 Salmon season discussions
February 28 Olympia, WAWDFW Public Meeting
March 3-9 Pacific Fishery Management Council
* 2020 Salmon season discussions
Rohnert Park, CA
DoubleTree
* Ocean/Puget S./Col. R. area salmon season negotiations
North of Falcon I (Public Meeting) Olympia, WA
14
15
16
17
Coho
Chinook
(Fall Chinook)
Rogue Fall
North Migrating
1/ Preseason expectations to the mouth of the Columbia River.
3,000
57,900
-12,900
-26,200
Preseason
Expectations
Oregon Production Index (OPI)
Sacramento Index
Oregon Coast Natural
Hatchery
2019 Ocean Abundance Estimates for Select Salmon Stocks
125,400
36,900
505,000
31,500107,60076,100
933,500
Preseason vs. Postseason
Lower Columbia Natural
Postseason Post - Pre
-633,000300,500
34,100 -2,800
Fall Brights
age 3 - 167,500
Poor Returns
and returns.
77,900
297,800239,900
Index - 383,500 NA
Columbia River Chinook 1/
379,600
-28,600
17,100 -89,000age 4 - 106,100
Upriver Spring
Willamette Spring 40,200
Oregon Coast
138,900
99,300
Lower survey results
Klamath
Lower River Wild
Tules 100,500
13,700
73,100
27,300
16,700
-22,600
18
19
Parental Escapement Marine Survival Index
Extremely
Low
Low Medium High
High > 0.75 full
seeding
≤ 8.0% ≤ 15.0% ≤ 30.0% ≤ 45.0%
Medium 0.75 to 0.50 full
seeding
≤ 8.0% ≤ 15.0% ≤ 20.0% ≤ 38.0%
Low 0.50 to 0.20 full
seeding
≤ 8.0% ≤15.0% ≤ 15.0% ≤ 25.0%
Very Low 0.20 to 0.10 of
full seeding
≤ 8.0% ≤ 11.0% ≤ 11.0% ≤ 11.0%
Critical < 0.10 of full
seeding
0 – 8.0% 0 – 8.0% 0 – 8.0% 0 – 8.0%
OCN Work Group Matrix for Oregon coastal wild coho salmon showing
maximum allowable fishery mortality rates (2020 in bold – anticipated).
Marine Survival Index
Parental Escapement
Very
Low Low Medium High
Very
High
(percent of full seeding)≤0.06% ≤0.08% ≤0.17% ≤0.40% >0.40%
Normal ≤10% ≤15% ≤18% ≤23% ≤30%
Matrix for Lower Columbia wild coho salmon showing maximum
allowable fishery mortality rates (2020 in bold - anticipated).
20
21
Lower Columbia River Tule Chinook Harvest Exploitation
Rate Limitations (2020 in bold – preseason expectation)
LCR Abundance Forecast
Total Exploitation Rate Limit
(all fisheries)
<30,000 0.30
30-40,000 0.35
40-85,000 0.38
>85,000 0.41
22
23
180
122
24
Coho
Chinook
(Fall Chinook)
Rogue Fall
North Migrating
1/ Preseason expectations to the mouth of the Columbia River.
Preliminary 2020 Ocean Abundance Forecasts for
Select Salmon Stocks
Preseason
Expectations
Oregon Production Index (OPI)
Lower Columbia Natural 24,600
Sacramento Index 473,200
Hatchery 185,700
Oregon Coast Natural 83,000
Klamath age 3 - 149,600
age 4 - 36,200
Index - 256,900
69,900 less than 2019 Forecast
126,600 less than 2019 Forecast
Oregon Coast Below recent year Decreasing spawner counts
average
Tules 97,200
Fall Brights 333,800
3,300 less than 2019 Forecast
93,900 more than 2019 Forecast
Columbia River Chinook 1/
600 more than 2019 Forecast Willamette Spring 40,800
Comments
747,800 less than 2019 Forecast
6,900 more than 2019 Forecast
12,300 less than 2019 Forecast
93,600 more than 2019 Forecast
17,900 less than 2019 Forecast
Lower River Wild 19,700
Upriver Spring 81,700
6,000 more than 2019 Forecast
17,600 less than 2019 Forecast
25
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
NO
RTH
ER
N
N
ecanic
um
1,2
18
750
431
1,0
55
3,8
27
4,4
45
2,1
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902
798
5,7
27
847
936
529
393
690
1,6
45
N
ehale
m
10,4
51
11,6
14
14,0
33
17,2
05
21,7
53
32,2
15
15,3
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2,9
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4,5
39
30,5
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3,0
79
7,5
49
5,4
86
4,1
90
12,3
83
12,8
91
T
illam
ook
1,9
95
8,7
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2,2
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4,8
28
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4,4
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2,0
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3,9
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55
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estu
cca
686
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4,4
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72
4,3
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2,7
55
In
d. Tribs.
2,1
16
1,1
21
376
639
2,0
52
1,4
73
1,3
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218
271
4,6
07
440
699
206
262
616
1,0
96
T
OT
AL
16,4
66
24,1
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17,5
29
25,5
71
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54,9
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67,3
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NO
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CEN
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alm
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79
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59
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753
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297
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332
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450
103
536
979
S
iletz
14,5
67
5,2
05
2,1
97
20,6
34
24,0
70
6,2
83
33,0
94
4,4
95
7,6
60
19,4
96
2,2
16
3,0
15
5,2
02
4,0
64
4,4
68
10,4
44
Y
aquin
a3,4
41
4,2
47
3,1
58
10,9
13
11,1
82
8,5
89
19,0
74
6,2
68
3,5
53
25,5
82
2,4
00
3,7
30
2,4
91
4,6
72
3,4
38
7,5
16
B
eaver
Ck.
2,2
64
1,9
50
611
1,2
18
3,5
75
2,0
72
2,3
89
1,8
78
2,0
15
6,5
64
332
1,7
09
1,5
53
494
720
1,9
56
A
lsea
13,9
07
1,9
72
2,1
46
13,3
20
14,6
38
9,6
88
28,3
37
8,4
70
9,2
83
25,7
86
6,1
85
7,3
75
4,3
77
5,1
12
6,0
25
10,4
41
S
iusla
w16,9
07
5,8
69
3,5
52
17,4
91
30,6
07
25,9
83
28,0
82
11,9
46
14,1
18
38,8
96
10,3
52
9,1
41
7,1
29
6,6
35
6,2
97
15,5
34
In
d. Tribs.
242
1,4
68
547
3,9
10
1,6
10
2,5
48
4,4
87
492
1,9
29
1,8
90
856
464
1,6
46
958
293
1,5
56
T
OT
AL
51,4
07
21,2
24
12,2
70
68,1
38
86,4
35
56,5
45
119,0
99
33,8
46
39,7
23
121,8
94
22,6
73
26,4
88
22,8
48
22,0
38
21,7
77
48,4
27
SO
UTH
CEN
TR
AL
U
mpqua
42,5
32
18,0
92
11,7
83
37,8
68
57,9
84
70,0
19
94,6
55
20,9
48
27,0
16
66,2
72
14,8
60
7,4
94
15,4
92
23,5
74
15,7
85
34,9
58
C
oos
17,0
48
11,2
66
1,3
29
14,8
81
26,9
79
27,6
58
10,9
99
9,4
14
6,8
84
38,8
80
3,0
30
4,6
24
2,6
89
7,2
92
13,5
56
13,1
02
C
oquille
11,8
06
28,5
77
13,9
68
8,7
91
22,2
86
23,5
64
55,6
67
5,9
11
23,6
37
41,6
60
3,3
57
9,4
94
4,6
41
5,6
88
10,3
58
17,9
60
F
lora
s C
k.506
1,1
04
340
786
3,2
03
11,3
29
9,2
17
2,5
02
1,9
36
1,0
22
1,5
85
942
693
628
830
2,4
42
S
ixes R
.105
294
97
43
176
92
334
34
567
410
168
120
69
174
155
189
C
oasta
l Lake
s14,7
25
24,1
27
8,9
55
23,6
08
17,3
49
38,7
44
20,2
81
18,9
22
13,6
59
22,0
10
4,7
29
8,0
44
1,3
02
6,7
04
7,4
46
15,3
74
In
d. Tribs.
--
-0
188
484
101
48
33
106
00
010
081
T
OT
AL
86,7
22
83,4
60
36,4
72
85,9
77
128,1
65
171,8
90
191,2
54
57,8
00
73,7
32
170,3
60
27,7
29
30,7
18
24,8
86
44,0
70
48,1
30
84,0
91
SO
UTH
R
og
ue
9,9
57
3,9
11
5,1
36
414
2,5
66
3,6
71
4,5
45
5,4
74
11,2
10
2,4
09
4,0
72
6,3
02
4,5
26
8,2
66
2,1
56
4,9
74
CO
AS
TW
IDE
164,5
52
132,7
30
71,4
07
180,1
00
265,3
01
287,0
76
360,7
88
104,6
40
135,6
21
362,0
33
61,2
14
82,2
06
65,9
03
82,3
26
94,1
04
163,3
33
Ore
go
n C
oa
sta
l Na
tura
l Co
ho
Sp
aw
nin
g E
sc
ap
em
en
t E
sti
ma
tes
, 20
05
-20
19
2005-
2019
Avg.
Com
ponent
and B
asin
Select Additional Graphics:
Note these were not included in the printed packet
