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CompanyName:OccidentalPet ro leumCorpCompanyTicker:OXYSector:BasicMaterials
Industry:EnergyEventDescription:Q32014 EarningsCall
©2014TheStreet,Inc.AllRightsReserved Page1of 26
OccidentalPetroleum(OXY)EarningsReport:Q32014ConferenceCallTranscriptThefollowingOccidentalPetroleumconferencecalltookplaceonOctober23,2014,10:00AMET.Thisisatranscriptofthatearningscall:
CompanyPart icipants
ChrisDegner;OccidentalPetroleumCorporation;SeniorDirector-IRChrisStavros;OccidentalPetroleumCorporation;EVP,CFOSteveChazen;OccidentalPetroleumCorporation;CEOVickiHollub;OccidentalPetroleumCorporation;EVPWillieChiang;OccidentalPetroleumCorporation;EVP-OperationsSandyLowe;OccidentalPetroleumCorporation;President-InternationalOil&GasOperations
OtherPart icipants
EvanCalio;MorganStanley;AnalystDougTerreson;ISI;AnalystDougLeggate;BankofAmerica;AnalystLeoMariani;RBC;AnalystEdWestlake;CreditSuisse;AnalystJeffreyCampbell;TuohyBrothersInvestmentResearch;AnalystRogerRead;WellsFargo;AnalystPaulSankey;WolfeResearch;Analyst
MANAGEMENTDISCUSSIONSECTION
Operator:
Goodmorning,andwelcometotheOccidentalPetroleumCorporationthirdquarterearningsconferencecall.
(OperatorInstructions).
Pleasenotethiseventisbeingrecorded.
IwouldnowliketoturntheconferenceovertoChrisDegner,seniordirectorofinvestorrelations.Pleasegoahead.
ChrisDegner(SeniorDirector-IR):
Thankyou,Denise.
Goodmorning,everyone,andthankyouforparticipatinginOccidentalPetroleum'sthirdquarter2014conferencecall.
OnthecallwithusismorningareSteveChazen,Oxy'spresidentandchiefexecutiveofficer,ChrisStavros,chieffinancialofficer,VickiHollub,president,oilandgasintheAmericas,WillieChiangexecutiveVicePresidentofoperations,andSandyLowe,presidentofourinternationaloilandgasoperations.
Injustamoment,IwillturnthecallovertoourCFO,ChrisStavros,whowillreviewourfinancialand
CompanyName:OccidentalPet ro leumCorpCompanyTicker:OXYSector:BasicMaterials
Industry:EnergyEventDescription:Q32014 EarningsCall
©2014TheStreet,Inc.AllRightsReserved Page2of 26
operatingresultsforthethirdquarterandalsoprovidessomeguidanceforthecurrentquarter.
OurCEO,SteveChazen,willthenprovideanupdateontheprogressofourstrategicinitiativesandoutlookfor2015.
VickiHollubwillthenprovideanupdateofouractivitiesinthePermianBasin.
WillieChiangwillconcludethecallwithanupdateonOxy'smidstreamoperation.
Asareminder,today'sconferencecallcontainscertainprojectionsandotherforward-lookingstatementswithinthemeaningofthefederalsecuritieslaws.Thesestatementsaresubjecttorisksanduncertaintiesthatmaycauseactualresultstodiffermateriallyfromthoseexpressedorimpliedinthesestatements.
AdditionalinformationonfactorsthatcouldcauseresultstodifferisavailableonthecompaniesmostrecentForm10-K.
Ourthirdquarter2014earningspressrelease,theinvestorrelationssupplementalschedules,andtheconferencecallpresentationslidescanbedownloadedoffofourwebsiteatwww.oxy.com.
I' llnowturnthecallovertoChrisStavros.Chris,pleasegoahead.
ChrisStavros (EVP,CFO):
Thanks,Chris,andgoodmorning,everyone.
Wegeneratedcoreincomeof$1.2billionforthethirdquarterof2014resultingindilutedearningspershareof$1.58,adecreasefromboththeyear-agoquarterandthesecondquarterof2014.
Thedeclineincoreearningswasattributablemainlytolowerrealizedoilpricesonourworldwideproductionandthesharpdeclineintradingperformanceonasequentialquarterlybasis.
Forthefifthconsecutivequarter,wecontinuedourstrongdomesticloadproductiongrowth.Wemetourguidanceandachievedayear-over-yeardomesticoilproductionincreaseof20,000BOEperdayorabout8%ledbyourPermianandCaliforniaassets.
Wealsorepurchased4.7millionsharesofourstockduringthethirdquarterandendedoftheperiodwith$2.9millionofcashonourbalancesheet.
Oilandgascoreafter-taxearningsforthethirdquarterof2014were$1.1billion,$90millionlowerthanthesecondquarterofthisyear,and$236millionlowerthanlastyear'sthirdquarter.
Forthethirdquarterof2014,totalcompanyoilandgasproductionvolumesaveraged755,000BOEperday,anincreaseof19,000BOEindailyproductionfromthesecondquarterand6,000BOEperdayforthesameperiodayearago,whichexcludesproductionfromthatHugotonassetsforallperiods.
Ourthirdquarter2014realizedoilpricesof$94.68perbarrelfellby$5.70comparedtothesecondquarterrealizationsof$100.38perbarrel.
Inthethirdquarterof2014,after-taxcoreincomeforourdomesticoilandgasoperationswas$538million.Onasequentialquarter-over-quarterbasis,resultsatourdomesticoperationswerenegativelyimpactedbylowerrealizedpricesacrossallproducts.
Improvedvolumes,however,offsetroughlyaquarteroftheearningsdeclinecausedbylowerprices.
Onayear-over-yearbasis,domesticoperationsdeclinedby$252millionafter-tax,whichreflectedtheimpactoflowerrealizedoilpricespartiallyoffsetbyincreasedoilproductionvolumes.
CompanyName:OccidentalPet ro leumCorpCompanyTicker:OXYSector:BasicMaterials
Industry:EnergyEventDescription:Q32014 EarningsCall
©2014TheStreet,Inc.AllRightsReserved Page3of 26
ThelowerrealizedoilpriceswereimpactedbythelargedifferentialswesawinthePermianBasin.WillieChiangwillprovideamorein-depthdiscussionaroundPermiandifferentialslateroninthecall.
Totaldomesticoilandgasproductionaveraged475,000BOEperdayduringthethirdquarterof2014,up11,000BOEperdaysequentially.
Domesticoilproductionwas282,000barrelsperdayduringthethirdquarter,anewquarterlyrecordforOxy.
Domesticoilproductionvolumesincreasedby20,000barrelsperdayfromtheyearagoquarterwithourPermianResourcesbusinessgrowingitsoilproductionby26%to43,000barrelsperday.
Onasequentialquarter-over-quarterbasis,totaldomesticoilproductiongrowthwas6000barrelsperday.
Internationalafter-taxcoreincomewas$624millionforthethirdquarterof2014withresultsimprovingby8%sequentiallyduetoaliftinginIraq,whichhadnoneinthesecondquarter,andhighersalesvolumesinbothColombiaandQatar.
Incomefromourinternationaloilandgasoperationsremainedaboutflatversustheyearagoperiod.
Internationaloilandgassalesvolumesroseby4,000BOEperdayonasequentialquarter-over-quarterbasis.TheimprovementwaslargelyduetohighervolumesinColumbia,whichexperiencedfewerpipelineincidentsintheperiod.
Oilandgascashoperatingcostswere$14.89perbarrelinthethirdquarterof2014comparedto$14.68perbarrelinthesecondquarter.
Taxesotherthanonincome,whicharedirectlyrelatedtoproductprices,were$2.54perbarrelforthethirdquarterof2014and$2.80forthefirstninemonthsoftheyear.
Thirdquarterexplorationexpensewas$53million.
Chemicalthirdquarter2014pre-taxearningswere$140millioncomparedwithsecondquarterresultsof$133millionand$181millioninayear-agoquarter.
Althoughslightlybelowourguidance,thesequentialimprovementinthethirdorderwasduetohighercausticsodapricesandvolumesalongwithlowernaturalgascostsoffsetbylowervinylsmarginsresultingfromrapidlyescalatingethylenecosts.
Weexpectourfourthquarterpre-taxchemicalearningstobeabout$150millionreflectinghistoricalslowdown--seasonalslowdownduetothecombinationofmaintenanceoutages,holidayshutdowns,andsomecustomerinitiativetoreduceyear-endinventories.
Midstreampre-taxsegmentearningswere$125millionforthethirdquarterof2014comparedto$219millioninthesecondquarterand$212millioninthesameperiodayearago.
The2014sequentialquarterlydeclineinearningsresultedinmainlyfrommuchweakertradingperformancedrivenbysharpcommoditypricemovementsduringtheperiodpartiallyoffsetbyhigherincomefrompowergenerationandthedomesticpipelinebusinesses.
Inthefirstninemonthsof2014,wegenerated$8.6billionofcashflowfromoperationsbeforechangesinworkingcapital.Workingcapitalchangesdecreasedourcashflowfromoperationsby$460millionto$8.2billion.
2014year-to-datecashflowfromoperationsdeclinedbyapproximately$1.6billioncomparedtothesameyear-agoperiod.
CompanyName:OccidentalPet ro leumCorpCompanyTicker:OXYSector:BasicMaterials
Industry:EnergyEventDescription:Q32014 EarningsCall
©2014TheStreet,Inc.AllRightsReserved Page4of 26
Thefirstninemonthsof2014includedtaxpaymentsof$570millionrelatedtothegainofthesaleofthatPGPunitsandourHugotonassets,andthefirstninemonthsof2013includedthecollectionofataxreceivable.
Capitalexpendituresforthefirstninemonthsof2014were$7.3billionnetofpartnercontributions.
Ourcapitaloutlaysincluded$410millionassociatedwiththeAlHosngasprojectand$275millionfortheBridgeTexpipeline.
Duringthefirstninemonthsofthisyear,wereceivedproceedsof$1.3millionfromthesaleatourHugotonassetsandspentabout$425milliontowarddomesticbolt-onacquisitions.
Weissued$1.6billionofcommercialpaperduringthelatterpartofthequarteraspartofourshort-termcashmanagementprocess,whichhasalreadybeenrepaid.
Afterpayingdividendsof$1.6billion,buyingbackto$2.1billionofcompanystock,andothernetflows,ourcashbalancewas$2.9billionatSeptember30.
Ourdebt-to-capitalizationratiowas16%atquarterend.
Our2014annualizedreturnonequitywas12%,andreturnoncapitalemployedwasaround10.5%.
Earlierthismonth,wereceivedcashproceedsofapproximately$5billionfromthebondofferingcompletedbyCaliforniaResources.IRIrulesmandatethattheuseoftheseproceedsberestrictedtosharerepurchases,dividendpayments,ordebtretirement.
Wewillbereceivinganadditional$1.2billionofcashfromCaliforniaResourcesconcurrentwiththespinoffinlateNovember.Theuseoftheseproceedswillbeunrestricted.
Theworldwideeffectoftaxrateonourcoreincomewas40%forthethirdquarterof2014,andweexpecttocombineworldwidetaxrateinthefourthquartertoremainaboutthesame.
LastlyIwilloutlinesomeguidanceandafewpointsonourreportingdisclosuresforthefourthquarter.
DuetotherecentsharpdeclineinoilpricesandthecompletionoftheCaliforniaspinoffattheendofnextmonth,itwillbedifficultforthefinancialcommunitytopredictourearningspershareforthefourthquarter.
WhenOxycompletesthespinoffofCaliforniaResourcesattheendofNovember,wewillreclassifythefinancialandoperationalresultstodiscontinuedoperationsforourcoreresultsdisclosure.
Assuch,ourfourth-quartercoreincomewillexcludeallofCaliforniaresults,andincomeonareportedbasiswillincludetwomonthsofCaliforniaresults.
Totalyearresultsonareportedbasiswillinclude11monthscontributionfromourCaliforniaoperationsclassifiedasdiscontinued.
IncludedintheIRsupplementalschedulesisaproformatablessegregatingOxy'ssoldandspun-offdomesticproductionfromourongoingoperationsforthehistoricalquarterly2013and2014periods.
Forthefourthquarter,weexpecttoseecontinuedproductiongrowthfromthePermianResources.
Inaddition,withthestartupoftheBridgeTexpipeline,OxywillcaptureaportionofthespreadbetweenLLSandWTIMidlandonapproximately200,000barrelsperdayofoiltransportedtotheGulfCoast.
WilliewilldiscussthebenefitsoftheBridgeTexstartupinafewmoments.
WeexpectourinternationalvolumestoincreaseinthefourthquarterwiththeAlHosnGasprojectcoming
CompanyName:OccidentalPet ro leumCorpCompanyTicker:OXYSector:BasicMaterials
Industry:EnergyEventDescription:Q32014 EarningsCall
©2014TheStreet,Inc.AllRightsReserved Page5of 26
onlineandthepositiveimpactofvolumesforourproduction-sharingcontractsthataresensitivetothedeclineinoilprices.
Onago-forwardbasisexcludingCalifornia,pricechangesatcurrentglobalpricesaffectourquarterlyearningsbeforeincometaxesby$29millionforadollar-per-barrelchangeinoilpricesand$6millionforadollar-per-barrelchangeinNGLprices.
Aswingof$0.50perMMBtuindomesticnaturalgaspricesaffectsquarterlypre-taxearningsbyabout$15million.Thesepricechangesensitivitiesincludetheimpactourproduction-sharingcontractvolumechangesonincome.
Ourfourth-quarter2014explorationexpenseisanticipatedtobeabout$60millionpre-tax.
I' llnowturnthecallovertoSteveChazenwhowillprovideanupdateonsomeofourstrategicandgrowthinitiatives.
SteveChazen(CEO):
Thankyou,Chris.
Theoverallbusinessisoperatingwell,andourincreasedinvestmentandfocusinthePermianResourcesoperationisevidencedbythe24%year-over-yeargrowthintotalproduction.
Otherlong-terminvestmentssuchastheBridgeTexpipelineandtheAlHosnGasprojectshouldalsobegincontributingtoourresultsinthecurrentquarter.
Wecontinuetomakesteadyprogresstowardsfurtheringourstrategicinitiativesoutlinedayearago.
ThespinoffofCaliforniaResourcesisontrack,andweexpecttodistributeapproximately310millionsharestothenewCaliforniacompanytoOxyshareholdersattheendofOctober.
CaliforniaResourcescompleteditsdebtfinancingearlierthismonthanddistributedapproximately$5billionincashtousasatax-freedividendinOctober9.Thedividendof$1.2billioninproceedsfromthetermloancreditfacilitywillhappenconcurrentwiththespinoff.
Afterthespinoffandforaperiodlastingupto18months,Oxywillretainapproximately75,000,000sharesoftheCaliforniacompany.
Atsomepointduringthisperiod,weintendtoconductanexchangeofferfortheremainingCaliforniasharesforOxyshares,furtherreducingourownsharesoutstanding.
Overtheyears,OxyhasmadesignificantinvestmentsinCaliforniaoilandgasandhasbuiltasolidbusiness.Withtheseparationoftheseassets,theCaliforniaoperationswillbeclassifiedasdiscontinued.
Theresultingimpactexpecttoprovidelowerunitratesforcashoperatingcost,DD&A,andF&DcostforOxyaswellasimprovedreservereplacementratiosonbothahistoricalandanongoingbasis.
RegardingourinterestintheWilliston[inaudible]Basinsgiventhecurrentproductpriceenvironment,weplantooperatetheseassetswithlesscapitalinordertogeneratefreecashandshiftourinvestmenttowardsourhighergrowthandhigherreturnoperationsinthePermianBasin.
IntheMiddleEast,wecontinuetomakeprogressinnegotiationwithourpartnerstowardsapartialmonetizationwithagoaltoimprovethebusiness'sabilitytogrowprofitablyfromasomewhatsmallerbase.
Overtime,expecttoachieveasimilarbalanceinourassetmixwithroughly60%ofoilandgasproductioncomingfromtheUnitedStates.
CompanyName:OccidentalPet ro leumCorpCompanyTicker:OXYSector:BasicMaterials
Industry:EnergyEventDescription:Q32014 EarningsCall
©2014TheStreet,Inc.AllRightsReserved Page6of 26
Overtime,wealsoexpecttomonetizeourremaininginterestintheGPofPlainsAllAmericanPipeline,whichiscurrentlyvaluedatmorethan$4billioninadditiontosomeothermidstreamassetswhenmarketconditionswarrant.
WeexpecttogeneratealargeamountofcashproceedsfrominitiativesI'vementioned.
Whileexpectthebulkoftheseproceedswillbeusedtorepurchaseourownshares,wealsohopetoinvestinthebusinessthroughattractivebolt-onacquisitionsinourcoreareaofthePermianBasin.
Opportunitiesmayexistforaccretivepropertyacquisitionsthathavecurrentproductionandgrowthprospectsandalsocomplementourexistingaacreage.
Wehavenointentionofacquiringpubliccompaniessincetheircurrentpricingreflectshigheroilpricesandanear-perfectoutcomeforproduction.
Sincetheendofthethirdquarterof2013,wehaverepurchasedapproximately31,000,000sharesofthecompanystockfornearly$3billion.
Theboardrecentlyauthorizedrepurchaseofadditional60millionsharesofthecompany'sstock,leavingtheprogramwith76millionshares.
Wearecurrentlyundergoingourannualcapitalbudgetingprocessandaremindfuloftherecentdeclineinoilprices.Asignificantamountoflong-terminvestmentincludingthecapitalforBridgeTexpipelineandtheAlHosnprojectisnearingcompletion.
Weexpectouroverallcapitalprogramtodeclinein2015giventheabsenceofCaliforniaandthecompletionofmultiplelong-termprojects.
WealsoexpectsignificantdeclineinourspendingintheMiddleEastaswebegintoreapthebenefitsofsomeofourearlierlong-terminvestments.
Thevastmajorityofcapitalbudgetnextyearwillbeallocatedtoourdomesticoilandgasdrillingoperationswherewemaintaintaxabilityinourbudget.
Wealsoexpectthatsincetheservicecompanieswerehappytoraisepriceswhenoilwasgoingupthattheywillbejustashappytohavetheirpriceslowerinthefuture.
Someofthereductionintheprogramandourlong-termprojectwillbeallocatedtoprofitablegrowthopportunitiesinthePermianResourcesmidstreamandchemicals.Iflowercrudeoilpricespersistorfallfurther,wewilladjustourcapitalprogramtomanagewithinourcashflowprobablybyreducingornotgrowingasquicklyinthebackhalfoftheyear.
Weplantoprovidemoredetailedacapitalprogramfor2015duringthefourthquarterearningscallearlynextyear.
ExcludingCalifornia,weexpecttoseeanaccelerationoftotaloilandgasproductiongrowthin2015giventheampleopportunity[inaudible]capitaldeploymentinthePermianResourcesandtheramp-upofproductionfromAlHosn.
IntheUnitedStates,weexpectPermianResourcestodeliverproductiongrowthofatleast20%in2013primarilyfromoil.Weexpecttheresourcesbusinesstoexit2014atover80,000BOEadayandtoexitnextyearatover100,000BOEaday.
OurtotaldomesticproductionexcludingCaliforniashouldgrow5%to8%reflectingamodestdeclineinnaturalgasandNGLvolumes.
CompanyName:OccidentalPet ro leumCorpCompanyTicker:OXYSector:BasicMaterials
Industry:EnergyEventDescription:Q32014 EarningsCall
©2014TheStreet,Inc.AllRightsReserved Page7of 26
IntheMiddleEast,firstproductioninAlHosnGasprojectisanticipatedlaterthisquarter.Oxy'snetshareofproductionisexpectedtoramptowards60,000BOEadayduringthefirsthalfofnextyear.
Company-wideandexcludingCalifornia,weexpectourtotaloilandgasproductiontogrow8%to10%nextyear.
Whiletherecentsharpdeclineinoilpricesmayprovidesomeheadwindstothebusinessin2015,ourcommitmenttoaconservativebalancesheetwithlow-costoilproductiongivesusconfidenceinouroperationsandthecapacitytomaketargetedpropertyacquisitions.
Weexpectourcashbalancetoexceedourtotaldebtbytheendofthisyear.OxyisbuilttothriveinanenvironmentwherecorepropertiesinthePermianEORbusinessandproduction-sharingcontractsintheMiddleEast,whichproviderelativelystablecashflow.
FollowingtheexecutionoftheCaliforniaspinoff,Oxy'sphilosophyofdisciplinedcapitalallocationwillcontinue.
Ourcorebusinesswillcontinuetofocusondeliveringmoderatevolumegrowth,generatinghigherearningsandcashflowpercentaswellasimprovedfinancialreturns.
OurPermianResourcesbusinesswillrepresentakeyareaofgrowthwithinourdomesticoperations.
I' llnowturnthecallovertoVickiHollubforanupdateonouractivitiesinthePermianResources.
VickiHollub(EVP):
Thankyou,Steve.
Inlastquarter'scall,Idiscussedourprogresstowardsreaching120,000barrelsofoilequivalentperdayofproductionin2016byachievingthefollowinggoals.
First,correlatingrockandfluidpropertiestoproductionperformanceacrossOxy'sentirePermianacreageposition,second,optimizingdevelopmentstrategyanddesigntounlockfullprimarydevelopmentpotential,andthird,efficientlyacceleratingfull-fielddevelopmentandproductiongrowth.
Wemadesignificantprogressonthesegoalsinthethirdquarterandcontinuetoimproveandoptimizeourstimulationdesignsforeachbuildandbench.
Inadditiontotestingslickwaterandhybridfluidsystems,wearetestingandanalyzingotherkeyvariablessuchaspumpingrates,padvolumes,proppanttype,proppantconcentrations,surfactants,clustercountandspacing,clustersperstage,andalternatetechnologiestoplugandperforate.
OureffortsaredrivingsignificantimprovementsinwellproductivityinourDelawareandMidlandBasinassets.
Inthethirdquarter,PermianResourceshaddailyproductionof77,000BOEperday,whichisa7%increasefromthe72,000BOEperdaythatwereproducedinthesecondquarter.
Weproduced43,000barrelsofoilperdayforthethirdquarter.Thisisa26%increasefromayearagoandan8%increasefromlastquarter.
Duringthethirdquarter,ourcapitalexpenditureswere$472million.Weoperated24rigsunderold75wellsincluding44horizontals.Weplaced71wellsonproductionincluding36horizontals.
Thenumberofwellsdrilledandplacedonproductionwasadverselyimpactedbydelaysattributabletoflooding,whichoccurredinSeptember.Thisimpactreducedthenumberofhorizontalwellsplacedon
CompanyName:OccidentalPet ro leumCorpCompanyTicker:OXYSector:BasicMaterials
Industry:EnergyEventDescription:Q32014 EarningsCall
©2014TheStreet,Inc.AllRightsReserved Page8 of 26
productionbyapproximately10.
We'veincreasedthenumberoffracspreadsinthefourthquartertoaddresstheadditionalcarry-inwellinventory.
Inthefourthquarter,weplantooperateanaverageof30rigsandexittheyearwith30forwardrigs.Weexpecttodrill80wellsandplace75wellsonproductionsincluding48horizontals.
Beforediscussingthethirdquarteractivityingreaterdetail,Iwouldliketosharesomemoreinformationregardingthedrillingpotentialweseeonouracreage.
Oxy'sunconventionalplaysinthePermianarespreadacross2,000,000acresintheMidlandBasin,CentralBasinPlatform,NorthwestShelf,andDelawareBasin.
Ourteamscontinuetoutilizeourextensiveknowledgeandappraisalworktocharacterizeperspectivebenchesandtargetlandingzoneswithineachbench.
Todate,we'veidentifiedapproximately7,100potentialwelllocations.Overall,morethan92%ofthelocationsarehorizontal,andourresultsconfirmtheeconomicsofhorizontalwellsexceedmostverticalwells.
IntheDelawareBasin,wehavecurrentlyidentified4,250horizontallocationswith1,450intheWolfcampAandBbenches.
ThemajorityoftheselocationsareinouroperatedareasinReevesCounty.
TheBoneSpringpotentialisequallyassignificantwith1,500potentiallocations.TheseareprimarilylocatedinNewMexicoandcouldincreasewithfurthersuccessinTexas.
IntheMidlandBasin,we'veidentified23horizontallocations,and1,050oftheseareinthedevelopmentphasetargetingtheSpraberry,WolfcampAandBbenches.
Wearehighlyencouragedwithrecentresultsinthesebenchesachievedthroughourfracdesignoptimizationandincreasesinlaterallength.
IntheDelawareBasin,weoperated11horizontaldrillingrigsandoneverticaldrillingriginthethirdquarter.Wedrilled41wellsandplaced40onproduction.
InourBarillaDrawacreage,weplacedeighthorizontalwellsonproductionintheWolfcampAandBbenches.Thesewellsachievedapeakrateof1,355BOEperdayanda30-dayrateof1,067BOEperday.
Our[Rodman]14-5Hwellachievedanaveragepeakrateof1,600BOEperdayanda30-dayrateof1365.
WecompletedourfirsttheDelawarezipperfracontheAnnaKatharine5Hand5Hreducingcompletioncostsby$700,000duetotheefficiencygainfromsimultaneousoperations.
Thesetwowellsachievedanaveragepeakrateof600BOEperdayandanaverage30-dayrateof1,225.
Theproductionratesachievedonourwellsplacedonproductioninthethirdquarteraresignificantlyaboveourfirsthalf2014rates.Thisincreaseisdirectlyattributabletothebreakthroughsweareachievinginouroptimizationprogramincludingincreasingsandconcentration,lengtheninglaterals,andoptimizingclusterspacing.
AdditionallyourWolfcampAwellsarematchingthe900,000BOEtypecurveandproductionfromourhorizontalwellsintheDelawareBasinisaveraging89%totalliquids,77%oil.
OurappraisaleffortsinthesecondBoneSpringandWolfcampCbenchesintheDelawareBasincontinued
CompanyName:OccidentalPet ro leumCorpCompanyTicker:OXYSector:BasicMaterials
Industry:EnergyEventDescription:Q32014 EarningsCall
©2014TheStreet,Inc.AllRightsReserved Page9of 26
inthethirdquarter.We'reexcitedtoseeenhancedperformancefromtheBoneSpringandanticipatefurthergainsasweincorporatelearningsfromthefullcoreweacquiredinthethirdquarter.Theselearningswilldriveimprovementsin2015.
AdditionallyweareencouragedbyrecentresultsachievedintheWolfcampC.Our[inaudible]206-Hwellachievedanaverageinitialrateof1,356BOEperdayanda30-dayrateof912.
IntheMidlandBasin,weoperatedeighthorizontaldrillingrigsandfourdrillingrigsduringthequarter.Wedrilled34wellsandplaced31onproduction.
WeareveryencouragedwiththeresultsintheSpraberrybenchandplantoacceleratethedevelopmentofthisbenchin2015.
Duringthethirdquarter,weplacedtheSouthCurtisRanch3526-Hwellonproduction.ThiswelliscompletedinthelowerSpraberrybenchandachievedanaveragepeakrateofninethe34BOEperdayandanaverage30-dayrateof913.
WehavetwoadditionalSpraberrywellsonflowbackwithinitialproductionresultsthatlooksimilartotheSouthCurtisRanch3526.Thesewellsareexceedingthe700,000BOEtypecurve.
IntheSpraberryWolfcampAandWolfcampB,weplaceda11horizontalwellsonproductioninthethirdquarterwithapeakrateof731BOEperdayandanaverage30-dayrateof541.Productionfromthesewellsaveraged91%totalliquids,81%oil.
Wecontinuetogatherandevaluatecores,cuttings,advancelogs,microseismictracers,andpressuredatatolinkreservoircharacterizationtowellperformance.
Wehaverecentlyacquired474feetofcontinuoushorizontalcorefromoneofourWolfcampBwells.Thiswillallowforbetterdefinitionoflateralreservoirlithologiclogicvariationsandenableustotunethosedifferencestoopen-holelogstooptimizeplacementofpreparationclustersandimprovefracdesign.
We'remakingsignificantprogressinourdesignoptimizationeffortsandareconfidentthiswilltranslateintofurtherimprovementsinwellproductivityinupcomingquarters.
Forexample,atDoraRoberts,wedrilleda10,000footlateralintheWolfcampBbench.Thiswell,theDoraRobert4027-Hachievedapeakrateof1,437BOEperdayanda30-dayrateof671.Thiswellisexceedingthe650,000BOEtypecurve.
AdditionallywerecentlydrilledtheHendrix1-HwellatQatarthatachievedanaverage30-dayrateof775BOEperday.
Inclosing,Oxy'sprogramin2014isdesignedtodelineateandappraiseouracreageinordertomaximizebothultimaterecoveryandfinancialreturns.
Wecontinuetomakerapidprogresstranslatingtheknowledgegainedinourappraisaleffortstocreatevaluefromourunconventionalacreage.
Wehaveinpositiontherequiredresourcestoexecuteaccelerateddevelopmentin2013butmaintaintheflexibilitytooptimizeourportfolioandpace.
We'reontargettodeliver15%to18%productiongrowthin2014andremainconfidentthatwewillachieveourtargetof120,000BOEperdayin2016.
I' llnowturnthecallovertoWilliewhowillprovideyouanupdateonthePermianmarketingstrategy.
CompanyName:OccidentalPet ro leumCorpCompanyTicker:OXYSector:BasicMaterials
Industry:EnergyEventDescription:Q32014 EarningsCall
©2014TheStreet,Inc.AllRightsReserved Page10of 26
WillieChiang(EVP-Operations):
Thanks,Vicki.Goodmorning,everyone.
I'dliketojusttakeafewminutestobrieflyupdateyouonourmidstreammarketingstrategiesinthePermian.
It'sparticularlyimportantintoday'smarketenvironmenttomaximizerealizedvalueforproduction,andourstrategytodosoisprimarilybyensuringaccesstomarkets.
NowIspentsometimelastearningscallonourmidstreamstrategytoshowyouhowwe'retryingtodevelopandsecuretakeawaycapacityinthePermianBasin.
Ihaveaslight29thatshowsourstrategy,whichisreallyfocusedontwonewtakeawaypoints:ColoradoCity,whichistheoriginoftheBridgeTexpipeline,andMidlandSouth,whichistheorigintokeythird-partypipelines,LongHornandCactus.
Thesetakeawaypointscomplementourcenturiangatheringsystembyprovidingustheadditionalaccesstomultiplemarkets.
Nowasyouareaware,theBridgeTexpipelinecommencedservicethisSeptember,andtogetherwiththestartupofsomeadditionalpipelinesinthenextfewmonths,weexpectdifferentialstoreturntolevelsthatwillreflectthemarginalcostoftransportation.
Slide30showsthepricingdifferentialsforMidlandWTIversusLLS.
Duringtakeawayconstrainedperiods,youcanseetheLLSMidlanddifferentialwidento$30perbarrelandasaveragedapproximately$16abarreloverthepastfouryears.
In2014,theLLS-Midlanddifferentialhasaveraged$12year-to-dateandtodayiscurrentlyroughly$10abarrel.
OuruniqueupstreamandmidstreamperspectivetothePermianBasinhasenabledustobeadrivingforcebehindtheconstructionofnewpipelineinfrastructureaswellastakeawaycapacityfromthebasin.
Slide31showshowweviewthekeyvaluecomponentsforinfrastructureprojectssuchasBridgeTex.
Asastand-alonepipelineinvestment,welookatcareoftariffrevenuetoensureasolidreturnconsistentwithourtargetedrateofreturnfordomesticmidstreamprojects.Thiscangeneratecashofroughlyadollarto$3abarrel.
Secondvaluedriveriswhenweenterintolong-termandcostadvantagetransportationcommitmentsonpipelinesasashipper.Thisgivesussufficientaccesstomarketscomparedtoothertransportationroutesandoptions.
Dependingontheproject,advantagetariffscanaddanotherdollarto$3abarrelofincrementalvalue.
However,thepointIwanttomakeisthatthecriticalvalueforOxyisreallytoavoiddiscountedpricesthatresultfrominfrastructureconstraintsandunplannedoutages.Thevalueissignificantandifyoulookatthepastfouryears,canbecomedollarsabarrelormore.
NowoursignificanttakeawaycommitmentonBridgeTexisagreatexampleofhowwecapturethisvalueandintoday'smarketisroughly$1millionadayforOxy.
OurPermianBasinstrategyutilizesallthesevaluedriverstoreachmultiplemarketsm,andwehavesecuredaccesstolong-termtakeawaycapacityofroughly3timesourcurrentproductionfromthebasin.
CompanyName:OccidentalPet ro leumCorpCompanyTicker:OXYSector:BasicMaterials
Industry:EnergyEventDescription:Q32014 EarningsCall
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Nowthisreallypositionsuswelltocontinuetogrowourproduction,maximizerealizedprices,andcapturemarketopportunities.
I' llturnthecallbacknowtoChrisDegner.Thankyou.
ChrisDegner(SeniorDirector-IR):
Hey.Thanks,Willie.
AndDenise,wearereadytotakequestions.
QUESTIONS&ANSWERS
Operator:
(OperatorInstructions).
ThefirstquestionwillcomefromEvanCalioofMorganStanley.Pleasegoahead.
EvanCalio (Analyst-MorganStanley):
Hey.Goodmorning,guys.
Steve,myfirstquestionismostofyourlarge-cap[inaudible]areincreasingly[inaudible]withincashflowormorelimitedbythebalancesheets.
GivenOxy'sunder-leveredbalancesheetversusanybodyotherthanasupermajor,wouldyoubewillingtooutspendcashflowinadownturnasamethodtoright-sizeyourbalancesheet,orreallyIguesswhatistherightortargetedcouplestructureforOxymovingforward?
SteveChazen(CEO):
Well,first,Iwouldarguewe'rebettercapitalizedthanthemajors.SoIthinkthereover-leveragedmyself.
Butanyway,IthinkasChrispointedout,we'regoingtohavealotofcashattheendoftheyearfromavarietyofsources,mostlyfromtheCaliforniabusiness.Someofthat,ofcourse,willbeusedtoreduceoursharecount,maybethebulkofthattoreduceoursharecount.
WecontinuetolookforopportunitiestogrowthebusinessinthePermianthroughinvestment.
Sotosum--whileourdrillingprogrammaybeinlinewithcashflow,ifweseeotheropportunitiesto--smallpropertyacquisitionsorevenmedium-sizedones,we'lluseourbalancesheettodothose,andthosewouldeffectivelybeeffectivelyanincreaseintheprograminexcessofcashflow.
SoIthinkwe'vealwayshadabalanceofdrillingandacquisitions.It'smoreshiftedclearlytodrillingnowbecausewehavesomuchtodo.
But--soIthink--Idon'tthinkyou'llseemassivechangesinourleverage,butyouwillseeobviouslylessequityinourequitycountaswebuydownalotofstock.
SoIthinkit' llalwaysbeabalance.Iftherewasasharpreductioninoilprices,createdmorebuyingopportunities,wewouldn'thesitatetoincreaseourleveragetogrowthebusiness.
SoIthinkthatfromourperspective,thisissortofgoodtimes.Isortofknowwhattodoat$75oilorless,butIhavenoideawhattodowith$120.
SoIthinkthisisreallygoodtimesforus.Itmaynotbegoodtimesforpeoplewhouseusasaproxyforoil
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Industry:EnergyEventDescription:Q32014 EarningsCall
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price,useourstocksasaproxyforoilprice,butasafundamentalbusinessmatter,thesecyclicaldownturnsiswhereyouusethebalancesheettobuildthebusiness.
AndIthinkthat's--I'mhoping--alotofhappytalknow,especiallyfromservicecompanies,abouthowthisistemporary.Idon'tknowhowanybodyknowsthat,butifIcouldpredictoilprices,I'dbesittingonabeachinGalveston,wouldn'tcometowork,andwouldn'tmesswiththisproductionbusiness.
SoIthinkthatasapracticalmatter,yougotto--thisisavolatiletime.Theremaybearecessionworldwide.Idon'treallyknow.Idon'tseethat.
ButalittleloweroilpricesIthinkcouldtakesomeofthebuoyancyoutofitandgivesussomeopportunitiestoaddtoourbusiness,soourgoalistogrowourearningspershare,ourreservespershare,cashflowpershare,throughacombinationofsharereduction,andhopefullybuildingthebusinesseitherthroughdrillingoracquisitionsandmaybeboth.
EvanCalio (Analyst-MorganStanley):
Clearlywell-positionedforadownmarket.
Maybearelatedquestion,butonbuybacks,youusedtohavetheslidewhereyoubuiltup100millionsharebuyback--andIguessthere'stwoquestions--isnotincludedtodayifthere'sanychangeinthoughtthere.
Andsecondly,whenyoudidthe100millionsharepotentialbuyback,itwasdeterminedwouldOxywas$100ashare.Itis$89today.Allthingsbeingequal,it' llbelowerfollowingtheCRCspin.
Atthesametime,theelementsthatarefundingthebuybackarelargelyflat,right.
SoIguessisthere--howdoyouthinkaboutthat,whichisitapproximatelyabout$1billionDelta,orisit--listento...
SteveChazen(CEO):
Wedenominatethisstuffinshares,becausethat'sthewaywethinkaboutit.Howmanysharesarewebuyingback?
We'refairlysomewhatdisciplinedinmakingsurethatwedon'tbuysharesatpricesthatimply--thatareexcessofourfindinganddevelopmentcost.
SoIthinkthat'sthewaywesortoflookatit.
Weannouncethesharerepurchasesasweactuallyhavethecashinhand.It'snotintendedasaforecastofwhatwemightultimatelydo.Asmorecashcomesinhand,youshouldexpectthatsharerepurchaseauthoritywouldrise.
SoIdon't-the60millionshareswe'veadded,sowegot76,Ithink,roughlylefttogo.Youshouldviewthatissortofthecash-in-handnumber,nottheultimate.Theultimatewilldependentonthepaceofproceedsfromvariousthings.
SoIthink--we'renottryingtoforecast.We'regoingtosay,"Thisiswhatwe'vegotinourhandnow."
Ifitturnsoutthatwehaveexcessmoneybecausethepriceofstockistoolow,we'lladjustthesharerepurchasetohighernumbers.
EvanCalio (Analyst-MorganStanley):
Gotit.
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Howwouldweconsideratimetable?Isthat--forthebuybackgivenitssignificantlyhigherthanalevelhistorically,orisitstilljustgoingtobealevel-drivenprogram?
SteveChazen(CEO):
It'sdrivenprincipallybythestockprice.Sowelookforbuyingopportunitiesinthemarketwhenpeoplebecomeirrational.
EvanCalio (Analyst-MorganStanley):
Gotit.Appreciateit,guys.Thanks.
SteveChazen(CEO):
Thankyou.
Operator:
OurnextquestionwillcomefromDougTerresonofISI.Pleasegoahead.
DougTerreson(Analyst-ISI):
Goodmorning,everybody.
SteveChazen(CEO):
Goodmorning.
DougTerreson(Analyst-ISI):
Steve,Ihaveacouplequestionsaboutthe[inaudible]business.
First,fromastrategicperspective,there'sbeencommentaryaboutdivestituresinOmanandothercountries,sowhetherornotyoucommentonassetsindividuallyorthepositionsingeneral,Iwantedtoseeifwecouldgetanupdateonlikelystrategicoutcomestheirandortheenvironmentformonetizationingeneralwhichyou'vetalkedaboutinthepast.
ThenthesecondquestionisyouguysmentionedthatAlHosn'sgoingtostartupontimeinthecurrentquarter,whichisgood.Sothesecondquestioniswhetherit'sgoingtocomeinonbudgetaswell.
Sotwoquestions.
SteveChazen(CEO):
Thesecond--we'llhaveSandyanswerthebudgetquestion.It'sasortofone-wordanswer.
Andso--butontheoverallreduction,it'ssortofoneatatime,butourobjectiveisthesame,onewayoranothertogetvalueoutoftheMiddleEastbusiness,somebysellingitandmaybesomebyspeedingupthecashoutoftheassetwhereit'smoredifficult.
Soonewayoranother,wearebasicallyusingthebusinesstodownsizethesizeofthatbusiness,makeitlessimportantinthecompany.Stillanimportantpart,butit'sgoingtobe--alotofcashisgoingtocomeoutofthatbusinessonewayoranotheroverthenextfewmonths.
AndsoIthinkwearegoingalongslowerthanIwouldlike,ofcourse,buttosomeextentbyshowing--beingtooanxioussometimes,yougetaworseresultthanyoumightgetsomeotherway.
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So--soSandywillanswerthequestiononbudgethere.
DougTerreson(Analyst-ISI):
Okay.
SandyLowe (President-InternationalOil&GasOperations):
Theanswerisoneword.Yes,weareonbudget.It'sawell-plannedprojectandwell-tended.Thestartupsequencehasbeeninitiated,andweexpecttohavesomeproductsalesinthequarter.
DougTerreson(Analyst-ISI):
Great.Thanksalotguys.
SteveChazen(CEO):
Thanks.
Operator:
OurnextquestionwillcomefromDougLeggateofBankofAmerica.Pleasegoahead.
DougLeggate (Analyst-BankofAmerica):
Thanks.Goodmorning,everybody.
Steve,Ialsohavetwoquestions.IguessmyfirstoneisforVicki.
IreallywanttotalkaboutthePermianoraskyouaboutthePermiangrowthtrajectorythatyouprovidedforus.
Yourrunratesinceyourampeduptherig[inaudible]about5,000barrelsperdayperquarter,andIrealizeit'sverysimplicityjusttolookattheabsolutemovesequentially.Butyouaresignificantlyacceleratingtherigcountandthebacklog,itlookslike.
SoI'mjusttryingtoreconcileasubstantiallyhigheractivitylevelwithasimilarquarterlyrateofgrowth,atleastimpliedbyyourprojectionsforthenextcoupleyears.
That'smyfirstquestion.I'vegotafollow-up,please.
SteveChazen(CEO):
I' llletheranswerthequestion,butIthinkIwouldn'tconfuseourexpectationswithourpromises.There'sprobablyawidedifferencebetweenthem.
Goahead,Vicki.
VickiHollub(EVP):
Yeah,Doug.Originallywehadnotplannedtoreachtheexitratethisyearwith34rigs.Butwe'veacceleratedourdevelopmentalittlebit,andasyounoticed,wearealittlebitbehindonsomeofourwellscompleted.
Butwe'veaddedanothercoupleoffracspreads,sonowasof1ofNovember,wewillbeatseventoaddressthewellinventory.
Andwithrespecttotherigsgoingforward,westillintendtostaysomewhataspertheschedulethatwehad
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showedinourlastpresentation.Wearejustseeingalittlemoreopportunityheretogetalittlebitaheadofthegame.
DougLeggate (Analyst-BankofAmerica):
Sothisisaworkinginterestissue[inaudible]Vickiintermsofsubsequentwellsfromherehavingalowerworkinginterest.Maybeyoucouldgiveusanideaofwhat[inaudible]interestin.
Thanks.
VickiHollub(EVP):
Well,wekindofgaveyouanindicationontheslideinthepresentationthatfortheMidlandBasin,generallyspeaking,ourworkinginterestiscloseto92%overallandthentheDelawareBasinaround76%generallyspeaking.
DougLeggate (Analyst-BankofAmerica):
Okay.Thanksforthat.
Steve,myfollow-upisreally--Irealizewe'regoingtohavetowaitonthecapitaltotheendoftheyear,butjustasanorderofmagnitude,Iwonderedifyoucouldhelp,givenallthemovingpartsofCaliforniagone,BridgeTexandAlHosnlargelydone.
AndwhatI'mreallytryingtogetatishowyouthinkaboutbalancingspendingwiththedividendasopposedtoassetmonetizationfundingthebuyback.Howshouldwethinkaboutdividendpolicyandmaybeabroadscaleofspendingfornextyearifyoucould?
Thankyou.
SteveChazen(CEO):
It'shardtodothebudgetrightnow,becausethere'sanumberofmovingparts,andwehavetotalkwithourpartnersintheMiddleEastaboutthesizeoftheprogramthere,andI'djustassumenottelegraphourthoughtsrightnow.
ButIthinkourPermianprogram,certainlyforthefirsthalfoftheyear,willbewhatwetoldpeopleitwouldbe.Idon'texpectanyrealchangeinthat.
Someoftheotherstuffmaybetweakedalittlebit,andsomeoftheotherprograms.Wejustdon'tknow.
Butasfarasthedividendsareconcerned,Ithinkyougobacktotheslidewe'veonlyshownforIwanttosay10years,butIthinkChrisisshakinghisheadthatit'smore.
Itsaysaftermaintenancecapital,whichismakingthecompanysafe,thenextlineisdividendsbeforegrowth.Andsoweviewourcommitmenttotheshareholdersondividendstobepartofouroverallcommitment.
Howmuchexactlyyou'regoingtoraisethedividendbyremainstobeseen,andthere'sobviouslyalittleconfusionwiththeloweroilprices.
ButIthink--Idon'tthink--we'veraisedthedividendsIthinkforadozenyears.Idon'tthinkwe'regoingtobreakthesteamnextyear,andsoIassumethedividendswillgoup.
We'vegotalotofcashandalotofprojectstofundalmostanythingwewanttodo.AndsoIdon'tthinkanybodyshouldbeconcerned.
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Ithinkwearefocusedonmakingsurethatthedrillingprogramdeliverstheresultsit'ssupposedtodeliver.Ifitdeliverstheresultsit'ssupposedtodeliver,there' llbeplentyofmoneyoverthenexttwoorthreeyearsfordividends--dividendgrowth,continueddividendgrowthandsharereductionandlotsofgrowthinthebusiness.
Soifwedelivertheresultsthatwearedoingsofarandourplansareprettymuchontarget,there' llbeplentyofcashflow,andIdon'tthinkanybodyshouldworryaboutwhereit' llbeacoupleofyearsfromnow.
Nextyear'sgoingtobeamessyyear.Yougotcomparisonsagainstthecompanywithadifferentsetofassets.Theyaregoingtohavesomesalesofthingsnextyear.
Andthesharecountisgoingtobereallyconfusing.Forexample,theproformaisnow,forthisyear--usetheaveragesharesoutstandingfortheyeartodotheEPScalculation,whichisalotmorethanthesharesoutstandingrightnow,nevermindattheendoftheyear.
Soalotofconfusingnumbersoverthenextyear,butIthinkifyoufocus--ifIwerelookingatthecompany,IwouldfocusonourprograminPermianResourcesandourcashgenerationintherestofthebusiness,andwegotalotof--andIthinkwe'venowfixedtherealizationissueoutofthePermianBasinwefacedthelastthreeorfouryears.
Unfortunatelywemayhavefixeditforeverybodyinthebasin,butwecertainly--wefixeditforourselves,soI'mprettyoptimisticaboutwherewearenextyear.
DougLeggate (Analyst-BankofAmerica):
Great.Thanksalot,Steve.
SteveChazen(CEO):
Thankyou.
Operator:
ThenextquestionwillcomefromLeoMarianiofRBC.Pleasegoahead.
LeoMariani(Analyst-RBC):
Hey,guys.
Iwaswonderingifyoucouldaddressalittlebitmorethecommentthatyouallhavemadeaboutpotentiallymoderatingactivity.Ithinkthephraseyouguysusedasisifoilpricesstayhereormovelower,andyoukindofreferredtothesecondhalfof'15.
Isthereanykindofmoregranularityyoucangivearoundthat.Irecognizethebudget'snotdoneyetandthere'smovingparts.
IknowyouhaveambitiousplanstowrapuptherigcountinthePermian.Isthereanyscenarioyoucansortofpaintwhetherornotyoustoprampingrigsinthesecondhalfoftheyear?Wouldyouactuallydroprigs?Canyoumaybejusttalkthroughthatalittlebit?
SteveChazen(CEO):
Idon'tthinkwehaveanyplanstodroprigs.Theramprateiswhatwewouldfoolwith,becausethebusinessiswecontinuetodrillwells,putthemonstream,generatecash,morecashthansomepeopleareoutlooking.
AndsoIthinkwe'llbeokay,andwecertainlyhavethefinancialflexibilitytoweatherthat.
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Industry:EnergyEventDescription:Q32014 EarningsCall
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Onalong-termbasis,wearefairlyoptimisticaboutoilprices.Overthenextyearortwo,Idon'tknow.
ButIthinkinthelong-termbasis,theindustry--despitewhatpeoplesay,theUSbusinessisnothealthy.It's$70oil,andsoIthinkhigheroilpricesareinthecardsovertime.
LeoMariani(Analyst-RBC):
Okay.
AndIguessjustinthePermian,couldyouguysmaybetalktowhattypeofwellcostsyouareseeingontheMidlandsideaswellastheDelawareside?
SteveChazen(CEO):
Vickicanprobablyanswerthat.
VickiHollub(EVP):
Yeah,dependingonthedepth,intheMidlandBasinwe'reseeingwellcoststhatareinthe$7millionto$7.5millionrangeforourSouthCurtisRanchandsomeoftheareasaroundthat.
AndtheDelawareBasininTexas,we'reseeingwellcostsintheneighborhoodof$8.6millionto$8.7million,andourdrillingcostshavebeenimprovingthroughsomeofourefficiencyinitiatives,butit'sreallythecompletioncoststhataredrivingourtotalwellcostrightnow.
Whatwe'vedonerecentlyisincreasedthesizeofourfracjobs,whichisgivingusbetterproductivityandbetter--whatwethinkwillbebetterultimaterecoveries,sowhenyou'reseeinghigherwellcostsforus,it'sbecauseweareincreasingthesizeofourfracs.
LeoMariani(Analyst-RBC):
That'shelpful.
Isthereanykindof,like,approximatelaterallengthyoucansortofputaroundthosewellcostsatall?
VickiHollub(EVP):
Aroundthe$8.6millionto$8.7million,that'sgenerallyalaterallengthofabout4,500through5,000,andinSouthCurtisRancharea,ourlaterallengthisaround6,100.
LeoMariani(Analyst-RBC):
Okay.That'shelpful.
IntermsofyourBakkenandPiceanceassets,Iguessyouhadinyourslidesthatyouplannedtolimitcapitalthere.Couldyoutalkaboutlonger-termplansforthoseassets?
Iknowyou'dspokeninthepastaboutsomeoftheBakkenpropertiesandalsoputtingthePiceanceassetsintoaJVformaybeaneventualIPO,andIguessyoualsotalkedaboutadditionalmidstreamsaleswentmarketconditionswarrant.
Couldyoumaybejusttalkthroughstrategicallyhowyou'rethinkingaboutthoseassets?
SteveChazen(CEO):
Well,theissueintheBakkenisitsimplydoesn't--can'tcompeteforthereturnsthatarebeingearnedinthePermian.It'snotthatthey'rebadassetsoranything.It'sjustnotcompetitiveinourportfolio.
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So--andthePiceanceisallgas,andgasistoughtocompeteinthisenvironment.So--andIdon'tseeanywayof--I'mnotbullishaboutgasprices.Idon'tseeanyrealwaytochangetherelativecompetitivenessofNorthDakotaversusthePermian.
WecanmoveoiloutofthePermianbypipeline.That'samuchmoreefficientwaytomoveoilthanbytrain.
SoIjustthinkthatit's--justwillnot--forourportfolio,won'tbeabletocompete,soultimatelywe'llhavetodealwiththat.
LeoMariani(Analyst-RBC):
Allright.Thatkindofappliesthateventualdisposition,Iwouldassumeatsomepoint.
SteveChazen(CEO):
Yeah.Imean,yeah.Sure.
Rightnow,it'salittlenoisy,soit'sprobablynottheperfecttimetobedoingthat.
LeoMariani(Analyst-RBC):
Okay.Makessense.Thanks,guys.
SteveChazen(CEO):
Thanks.
Operator:
OurnextquestionwillcomefromEdWestlakeofCreditSuisse.Pleasegoahead.
EdWest lake (Analyst-CreditSuisse):
Yes.Goodmorning.
Anintriguingfromyouthere,Steve,justonsayingcashflowsbeingunderestimated.Imeanobviouslyoilpricesmakealotofvolatility,butmaybesomecoloronthat.Isthatbecauseyouthinkyourpromiseisgoingtobeexceededbyyourexpectationonvolumes?Doyouthinkit'sbecausecashmarginsarebeingunderestimatedasyoushifttodrillinginthePermian--isitAlHosn,orisitallthreeandsomethingelse?
SteveChazen(CEO):
GenerallyIthinkpeoplehaveunderestimatedthecashflowthat' llcomeoutoftheassets.Theybasicallytakewhatwedidthisyearandadd2%orsomethingtoitandthenadjustforprice.
TheAlHosnprojectwillcertainlyadd.There'sotherthingsthatIthink' lladd.
ButIthinkweshowyou--Ithinkinthis--there'sadifferencewithout--welookdifferentwithoutCalifornia,andwegiveyousomenumberstohelpyoumodelthat.Wedon'tknowwhattheDD&Aratewillbenextyear,becauseitdependsonreserves.
ButtheunderlyingDD&Arate,forexample,withoutCaliforniainUnitedStatesislower.
Andso--andsamethingwithoperatingcostsandotherthings,soIthinkthere's--peoplearejustsortoftakingtheoldnumbersbecausethat'sreallyalltheyhad.ButIthinkasyoulookatit,maybealittlebitmorecarefulmodelingwiththenewnumbersmightbemorehelpfulforpeople.
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EdWest lake (Analyst-CreditSuisse):
Okay.Great
AndthenaquestiononthePermian--ImeanobviouslyifyoulookattheMidlands,you'veoutlinedDoraRoberts,SouthCurtis,maybe.ImeanthesearesweetspotsinthenorthernMidland.Butit'snotahugeamountofacreage,butitwillbeveryproductive.
AndthenintheReevesBarillaDrawarea,yougotthisfantasticresultsagain,andthat'sobviouslyalargeracreageposition.
Sothatdrivesgrowthoverthenextfive,maybesix,seven,maybeevenlongeryears.
WhenIlookattherestofthePermianandparticularly,say,ifoilpricesdidhavealongerexcursiontothedownside,howdoyouthinkthereturnsstackup?AndI'mparticularly,say,lookingattheNewMexicoDelaware.What'sthesortofbreak-evenorpriceyouneedforgettinganacceptablereturntodrillthat?
SteveChazen(CEO):
Well,Igettotakealongerview,Iguess,becauseit'sasmallerproportionofmyage.
SoifIlookbacktwoorthreeyearsago,whatwethoughtaboutthePermianBasinandwhatwethoughtinternally--forgetwhatotherpeopleweresaying--andIlookattheprogramsthathavebeenproposednow,itdoesn'tevenlooklikethesamecompany.
AndIthinkasweprogress,wecontinuetofindnewthingsthatwedidn'tthinkofbeforethatwilladdconsiderably.
Ithinkthebusiness--ultimatelyifoilpricesstayedlow--whateveryouwanttocallthecurrentpriceoratthislevelorlower--forextendedperiodoftime,marginshistoricallyhaveadjustedbythereductionofservicecosts.
Youarenotgoingtogetanenvironmentwhereoilpricesstayat,say,$75orwhateveryouthinkforfourorfiveyearsandservicecostsaregoingtobethesame.Itjustisn'tgoingtowork.
Andsopartofthegainsharingandlosssharingherewillbefrombothparties.Soallthemoneyisn'tjustgoingtogointoservicecompanycoffersandwe'regoingtoworkforfree.AndIdon't--notjustwebuteverybody.
SoIthinkintheend,itwillequilibrateandwillgenerateacceptablereturns.
Wethinkthere'salotofeconomicoilat$75,economicmeaningthatweearn15%,16%,17%returns.
DoIthinkthere'salotofeconomicoilat$50?No,Idon't.Andsomewereinthatrange,butitalsodependsonservicecosts.
Andso--butifoilpricesgobackto$100orwhateveragain,servicecostswillreboundwiththat.
SoIjustthinkthatthisthingwilltake--workitselfoutoveraoneortwoyearperiod.
AndI'm--Ihatetosaythiswaybutsortof--Ilookforwardtoalittlestressandsomeofthecrazystuffsortofgoesawayforawhile,andthatgivessortofrationalpeopleanopportunity
EdWest lake (Analyst-CreditSuisse):
Andthenafinalquestionjustonthe2015productionoutlook--that'sforhelpful--8%to10%,andyoucan
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seeobviouslythegradesconservationfromAlHosn,whichwillprobablystillhavealittlebitoftailendcontributionmaybeevenin'16aswell.
Doyou--Imean,andobviouslyreducingactivityintheMid-con,doyouthinkthePermian--itseemsfromthewellresultsandtheactivitylevel,doyouthinkthePermiancanprovideanoffsettokeepthatproductiongrowthsortofatasimilarpacein2016,ordoesitjustnaturallyslowasAlHosncomesdown?
SteveChazen(CEO):
AlHosnwon't--well,AlHosnwillbeeventuallyflattened.
ButIthinkatAlHosn,Ithinkit'spossiblethatoverthenextfewyears,theplantislargerthanitneedstobeforthedelivergas.Andso--andthecountrycontinuestoneedgasthereandtheresultingliquids,ofcourse.
SoIthinkovertime,there' llbeanexpansionprobably--it'sreallyuptothelocalgovernment--andsothere' llbe--AlHosnisnotthrough.
SoIthinkaswelookat'17and'18and'19,we'llseemoregrowthoutofAlHosn.Atsomepoint,it' llleveloff.That'strue.
ButIthinkit' llcontinuetogrowand--becauseonceyou'vespentofbasemoney,theincrementalcapwillhavereallygoodreturns,Ithink.
SoIthinkthat' lldobetter.IthinkthePermianresourcebusinesshasthepotentialtocover--tocontinuetogrowandmaybegrowbettergoingforwardasweworkthroughsomeofthehistoricalissues.
SoIthinkwe'vegotmoreacreageandmorewillproveup.TheBarillaDrawdidn'treallyexistayearago.Imean,thelanddid,buttheconceptdidn'texist.
AndsoIthinkthere'salotofgoodconceptsoutthere.Somewillworkandsomewon't,andsomeare,Ithink,over-promotedbysome.Butit'shardtoimaginethaton100,000acres,you'regoingtohave4billionbarrelsofreserves.
ButIthinkrationalexpectationsaregoodforthebaseline.IthinkPermianBasinisthebestbasinintheUnitedStatesandwillbeforthenext20or25years.
EdWest lake (Analyst-CreditSuisse):
Thanksverymuch.
SteveChazen(CEO):
Thanks.
Operator:
ThenextquestionwillcomefromJeffreyCampbell,TuohyBrothersInvestmentresearch.Pleasegoahead.
Jef f reyCampbell(Analyst-TuohyBrothersInvestmentResearch):
Goodmorning.
FirstquestionIwantedtoaskreferstoslide27,theSCR3526-HSpraberrywell.Istheearlyshallowdeclineconsistentwithyourexpectations,anddoesthisearlypositiveresulthaveanyinfluenceoveryourSpraberryappraisalplansgoingforward?
VickiHollub(EVP):
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Yeah,we'restillevaluatingtheSouthCurtisRanch3526,andtheshallowdeclineonthatissofargoodnewsforus.Butwestillwanttoseealittlemoreproductiondatafromthattodeterminewhat'scausingthat.
Jef f reyCampbell(Analyst-TuohyBrothersInvestmentResearch):
Great.Thankyou.
Andjustasabroaderquestion,justlookingatyourplanasit'sunfoldedinthePermianoverthelastseveralquarters,itdoesn'treallyappeartoencompassestheCentralBasinplatformwheresomepeershavedrilledsomenoteworthyhorizontalwells,Iwaswonderingifyouhaveanyhorizontalexplorationpotentialinthatarea.
VickiHollub(EVP):
WefeellikewehavealotofpotentialintheCentralBasinplatform,andthat'sjustoneoftheareasthatwehaveyettogetto.
We'reworkingonafairlystructuredplanto--withrespecttoourexploration,ourappraisal,andourdevelopmentprograms.
Andsowhatweshowedyouontheslidethathasthebreakoutofthezonesthatarecurrentlyunderappraisalandcurrentlyunderdevelopment,thatlistdoesnotincludewhatwe'redoingfromanexplorationstandpoint.
Soourexplorationgroupis--oneoftheirkeyareastofocusonoverthenextcoupleyearswillbetheCentralBasinplatformwherewedohavesignificantacreageandwethinkthereisalotofpotentialthere.Soitjusthasn'tgotteninthequeueyet,butit'ssomethingthatwe'reoptimisticabout.
Jef f reyCampbell(Analyst-TuohyBrothersInvestmentResearch):
It'saniceproblemtohave.Thanksverymuch.
Operator:
OurnextquestionwillcomefromRogerReadofWellsFargo.Pleasegoahead.
RogerRead(Analyst-WellsFargo):
Thankyou.Goodmorning.HopefullyI'mon.
Anyway,quickquestionontheOpExside,acoupleyearsagostartedanOpExreductionefforts.Obviouslyitwassuccessful.
ThistimearoundtalkingaboutOpEx,andthenlastnightonthecallwiththeCRC,theytalkedabouthighergasprices.
Iwaswonderingex-CaliforniaifyoucouldwalkusthroughwhatsortoftheOpExissuesarehereandhowmuchofthatisduemaybetojusttemporarygaspriceincreasesandhowmuchofitisafunctionofmaybechangesinwhatyou'redoinginthePermianResourcesarea.
SteveChazen(CEO):
JustasyoulookatOpEx,Ithinkthere'stwo--there'sthecostofenergy,whichisburiedinOpEx,becauseweusealotofelectricity.Torunpumpsandsuch.
Andsosomeofthat'sinenergy,andsomeofitisinthe--basicallydrivenbytheEORbusiness,whichuses-
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-wherethegas,theCO2wastiedtooilprice,andtheyusealittlemoreCO2andexpensethat.Itlooks--showsupasanoperatingcost.
Andsomeofitis--weincreasedtheworkoveractivityprincipallyintheEORbusiness,sowhenyoulookatournumbersforoperatingcostintheUnitedStates,thedriver--theoverwhelmingdriveristheEORbusiness,whichisbasicallyalowcapitalbusinessbutalittlehigheroperatingcostbusinessthan,say,theresourcesbusiness,whichisahighcapitalbusinessandalowoperatingcostbusiness.
SowhatyouseeisasweputmoreCO2intheground,aswetrytorepairthewells,yougetmoreoperatingcost.Andwetrytooptimizethat,andwhatwelookatisthebase--theunderlyingoperatingcost,notsomuchwhatweredoingfromquartertoquarter.Wecan'tdoanythingaboutCO2pricesoranythinglikethat.
SoIthinkit'samixofthings,butthedriverforoperatingcostfortheOxyexcludingCaliforniaistheEORbusiness,whichisalargebusinessandit'sprincipalexpensesarenotcapitalbutratheroperatingcosts,soitjustlooksalittledifferentthanyoumightbeusedto.
RogerRead(Analyst-WellsFargo):
SowithCalifornia,it'ssoontobegone.
SteveChazen(CEO):
Weactuallyshowyousomewhere--Chris?
ChrisDegner(SeniorDirector-IR):
Yeah,wegaveyouaproformaslidetableintheIRschedulesthatshowsproformawithoutCaliforniaandtheHugotonforcashoperatingcost,DD&Aandsomeothermetricsandalsoproduction,soyousortofcangobackandmodelitoffofthat.You'llseewhathappenedoverthatperiodoftime.
RogerRead(Analyst-WellsFargo):
Okay.Willdothat.
AndthentheotherquestionIhadwasalongthelinesofcatchinguponthewellcompletionsandtheadditionofthefracspreadsinWestTexas.
Anychanceforupsideperformanceintermsofproductionthererelativetotheguidance,oristhatallfullyincorporatedinthenumbers?
VickiHollub(EVP):
Thatisincorporatedinourprojectionsforproduction,sowedoexpecttocatchup,andwe'veaccountedforthat.
SteveChazen(CEO):
Ithinkwhathe'saskingishavewebeenconservativeinthenumberornot?
VickiHollub(EVP):
I'dsaythatthat--basedontheperformancewe'veseenthusfar,I'dsaythat'sofconservativenumberactually.It'sanachievablenumber.
RogerRead(Analyst-WellsFargo):
Okay.That'sforhelpful.Thankyou.
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Operator:
AndourfinalquestionwillcomefromPaulSankeyofWolfeResearch.Pleasegoahead.
PaulSankey(Analyst-WolfeResearch):
Thankyou.Goodmorning.
SteveChazen(CEO):
Goodmorning,orwhateveritis.
PaulSankey(Analyst-WolfeResearch):
Yeah,afternoon,Iguess.
Acoupleofhigh-levelstrategicquestions.
Firstly,doyouthinkyou'vebeenbehindtechnicallyinthePermian?Dothinkyoucangetahead,anddoyouthinkanykindoftechnicaladvantageissustainableinUSunconventionalgiventhecommoditizationoftheactivity?
SteveChazen(CEO):
We'llstartwith--yeah,we'rebehind.
Ithinksomewhatearlier,IsaidifIlookatwhatthepresentationsinternallyweretwoyearsagoandIlookatthequalityandthedetailofthecurrentpresentationsfornextyear'sprogram,itdoesn'tevenlooklikethesamecompany.
SoIthinkwe'vemadealotofprogress.Weareblessedwithgoodacreage,whichcompensateforwhatevertosomeextent.
SoIdon'tthinkit's--Idon'tthinkthere'smuch--Ithink--Ialwaysbelievethatit'stheacreageorthereservoirthatoverwhelmsovertime.Technologyspreadsquickly.
SoIdon'tthinkthere'ssome--there'snosecretsaucethatlastsverylong.SoIthinkasapracticalmatter,we--Ithinkwe'rewhereweneedtobeintechnology.
There'salwaysgoingtobeimprovement.Whetheryouhaverelativeimprovementagainstotherpeople,Idon'tknow.Butovertime,thetechnologyspreadsveryquickly,andso--becauseweseelotsofwells,soit'snotreallysomethingthat'shiddenfromus.
SoIthinkwhereweneedtobefromaskillsetrightatthispoint.Wewerebehind.There'snoargumentaboutthat.
Butwearefortunatethatwehaveanexceptionalacreageposition,which--intheend,thereservoirsmatter.
PaulSankey(Analyst-WolfeResearch):
Iguesstheargumenttherewouldbethatyouwereinearly,relativelyspeaking,andpaidless,butaboveall,theearlyallowedyoutogetthebetteracreage?
Isthereanyotherproved,bytheway,thatyouhavebetteracreage?Howcanweshowthat?
SteveChazen(CEO):
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MaybeVickicantellyouaboutthat.
VickiHollub(EVP):
I'dliketobuildonSteve'scommentswithrespecttoyourfirstquestion,initially.
TechnicallywehaveteamsherewithOxythatIthinkcouldcompeteorbeatanyotherteamsinthePermianBasinatthistime.
Fromasuccessstandpointintheunconditionalplays,oneofthecriticalthingsistounderstandwhatthereservoirisandwhatthereservoir'stellingyou.
Wedon'tbelievethattheseplaysshouldbecalledstatisticalplays.Wethinkthatyou'vereallygottounderstandwhatthereservoiris,andbasedonwhatthereservoiris,youdesignyourcompletionsandyourfracjob.
AndIthinkrightnow,we'reprobablyone,ifnottheonlycompany--oneofthefewcompaniesthat'sactuallytakenahorizontalcoreandalongwithourverticalcores--our3Dseismic,ourmicroseismic,andalltheadditionalworkthatwe'redoingaroundreservoircharacterization,Ithinknobodyinthebasinisanyfurtheralongthanwearewithrespecttothat.
ButIthinkwiththatsaid,theindustryasawholestillhasalottolearn.We'reallveryearlyinthis--inthedevelopmentoftheseunconventionalplaysinthePermian.
SoIstillthinkthatwe'regoingtocontinuetolearn,technologywillcontinuetoadvance,andIthinkthatasitdoes,Iexpectovertimeforcoststocomedownon--atleastfromthedrillingstandpointandpossiblyfromthecompletionstandpoint.
We'vegotsomeplansinplaceoverthenextsixmonthstodosomethingsIthinkthatcouldhavesignificantimpactonourproductivityandultimaterecoveries,butit'sjustamatterofworkingthosecoststomakesurethatthey'reeconomicforwhatwewanttodo.
AndasIsaid,technologyovertime,thecostcomesdown,andsoIthinkwewillbeabletodosomethingsthatwillcertainlyhelpsomeoftheareasthatpreviouslyhavenotbeenasgoodasourDelawareBasinarea.
SoI'msorry.NowI'veforgottenyoursecondquestion.
PaulSankey(Analyst-WolfeResearch):
No,Iwasjustsayingifthere'ssomewaythatwewouldbeabletoshoweasilythatyouracreageissuperiortosomeoneelse's?
SteveChazen(CEO):
Well,we'vegotsomuchofitthatsomeofit'sgoingtobebetterandsomenot.Imean,ifyoucompareittosomebodythat'sgot100,000acresandthat'shiswholeposition,whoknows?
ButIthinkifyoulookattheoverallresultandyousaywestartedfromastandingstarttwoyearsago--andwe'llpass80,000attheendofthisquarter,andwe'llpass100,000attheend--bytheendofnextyear,forsure.
SoI--Ijustlookat--fromastandingstarttwoyearsago,we'llbeoneofthebiggestproducersinthisunconventional--innotime.ButourwholebusinesshistoricallyhadbeenanEORbusiness.
SoI--youknow,I--it'swhateveryouwanttothink,butIthinkthere'salwayssomebodywho'sgot40,000acresthat'srealgood.Thequestioniscanyouhave2millionacresthat'srealgood?
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AndIthinkwe'vegotenough40,000acrepiecesthatwecancompetewithanybody.Ifwetookoneofour40,000acrepiecesor100,000acrepieces--andpeopleweresayingwhatawonderfulcompanyitis.It'sasgoodasthesnakecompanyorwhateverit'scalled.
PaulSankey(Analyst-WolfeResearch):
Gotacoupleofquickones,Steve.
TheinvestmentinmidstreamissimultaneouswiththeselldownoftheGPSPlainsAllAmerican.Iassumethatmeansthatyouwouldn'tbecontinuingtowanttoowntheassets,longterm.
Andfurthertothat,doesthedeliberatenamingofPermianResources--ringsabellwithCaliforniaResources.Iwonderedifthatwasapotentialspincandidate,andI' llleaveitthere.
Thankyou.
SteveChazen(CEO):
Onthemidstream,ourgoalisto--IthinkasWilliepointedout,ourgoalistomakesurethatwegetthebestpossiblepriceforourproduct,andwearenotdisadvantaged.We'vegonethroughseveralyearsofdisadvantage.
Ifwecandothatwithoutspendingcapitaltobuildpipelines,we'rehappytodothatbycommittingforspaceandreapingtheadvantagesofowningspace.
AndsoIthinkyoushouldviewitasitspurposeisbasicallytomakesurewegetgoodpricesforoil.
Ifwecanmonetize--takebacksomeofthatcapitalsomewayandputitsomewhereelsewithhigherreturns,we'redefinitelygoingtodothat.
Asfarasthenameisconcerned,that'ssortofanaccident.Iwasn'tallthatwildabouttheCaliforniaResourcesname,butIthink--Idon'tthinkyoushouldviewitasaspinoffcandidateatthispoint.
Itneedsrightnowthecashflowfromtherestofthebusinesstoaccelerateitsdrilling.Andit'sunlikeCalifornia.Californiaactuallyisagoodbusiness.Itjust--butit'sinamaturephasewhereitcanbeself-financing.
Theresourcebusinessneedscashtogrow,andit'sjustnottherighttimetoeventhinkaboutsomethinglikethat.
PaulSankey(Analyst-WolfeResearch):
Thankyouverymuch.
SteveChazen(CEO):
Thanks.
Operator:
Ladiesandgentlemen,thiswillconcludeourquestionandanswersession.
IwouldliketoturntheconferencebackovertoChrisDegnerforhisclosingremarks.
ChrisDegner(SeniorDirector-IR):
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Hi.Yes.Thankyou,everyone,andpleasegiveusacallifyouhaveanyfollow-upquestions.Haveagoodday.
Operator:
Ladiesandgentlemen,theconferencehasnowconcluded.Wethankyouforattendingtoday'spresentation.Youmaynowdisconnectyourlines.
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