Observation,Secondary Sources,

& Case StudiesESP178 Research Methods

Dillon Fitch3/8/2017

Adapted from slides by Professor Susan Handy

Observations

Observation Situations for human subjects

• Controlled – observing behavior in a lab (e.g. classic psychology studies)

• Natural – observing behavior out in the world (e.g. a natural experiment, counts of behavior)

• Intervention – observing behavior out in the world with some limited control (the intervention)

Systematic Observation

Researcher uses standard form on which to record variation in the variables of interest

Fifth Street Road Diet EvaluationGudz, E. and S. Handy. 2016. “When a Diet Prompts a Gain: Impact of Road Diet on Bicycling in Davis, California” Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC, January.

Before-and-After Road Diet

• Students and community volunteers

• 7 intersections between A and L Streets

• Two observers per intersection – one for bikes, one for peds

• Each bike/ped recorded for time, direction, gender, age group

SPEED TEST PROTOCOL

Eastbound:Start point Redwood Barn sign east of L StreetEnd point pedestrian crossing sign west of A Street

Westbound:Start point speed limit sign before A StreetEnd point yellow/black warning sign on left at end of median barrier

Driving:In right lane except to pass bike or busRegular acceleration and decelerationDriving speed of 30-32 mph (speed limit 30 mph)No red light running

Bicycling to SchoolFitch, D., Thigpen, C., and S. Handy. 2016. “Traffic Stress and bicycling to elementary and junior high school: Evidence from Davis, California” Journal of Transport and Health 3. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jth.2016.01.007 2214-1405/

p Coefficients

Bike To School Day 0.69 0.03 0.69 0.03 0.69 0.03 0.69 0.03 Tuesday -0.01 0.09 -0.01 0.1 -0.01 0.09 -0.01 0.09

Wednesday -0.13 0.08 -0.13 0.08 -0.13 0.08 -0.13 0.08 Thursday 0.03 0.08 0.04 0.08 0.04 0.08 0.04 0.08

Friday -0.22 0.08 -0.22 0.09 -0.22 0.08 -0.21 0.08 Fall 0.16 0.03 0.16 0.02 0.16 0.03 0.16 0.03

Spring 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.03 Temperature (F) 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.00 Presence of Rain -3.1 0.1 -3.1 0.1 -3.1 0.1 -3.1 0.1

% Hispanic 3.28 0.97 3.31 0.97 3.26 0.96 3.15 0.97 % Black -5.86 2.06 -5.91 2.05 -5.72 2.02 -5.89 2.04 % Asian -0.52 1.33 -0.47 1.3 -0.59 1.29 -0.61 1.25 % Male 3.41 6.04 4.03 6.6 2.1 5.37 3.05 5.16

% Free or Reduced Cost Lunch -2.31 0.57 -2.34 0.57 -2.32 0.57 -2.34 0.57 Mean Distance to School -0.12 0.64 0.01 1.04

Comfort 1 0.43 2.64 Comfort 2 1.37 1.82 Comfort 3 2.12 1.5

Comfort 4 2.67 1.22 Comfort 5 2.02 1.2 Comfort 6 2.54 1.05

WAIC 121932.6 121932.8 121932.6 121932.8 Akaike weight 0.27 0.24 0.26 0.24

Table 3. Model Parameter Estimates Model A Model B Model C Model D

Mean SD Mean SD Mean SD Mean SD I t t

𝑛𝑛𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏,𝑏𝑏 ~ 𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝑛𝑛𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵 𝑒𝑒𝑏𝑏 , 𝑝𝑝𝑏𝑏𝑖𝑖log

𝑝𝑝𝑏𝑏𝑖𝑖1 − 𝑝𝑝𝑏𝑏𝑖𝑖

= 𝛼𝛼 + 𝛼𝛼𝑖𝑖

+ 𝛽𝛽𝑖𝑖𝑗𝑗𝑗𝑏𝑏𝑗𝑗𝑗 ∗ 𝐽𝐽𝐽𝐽𝐽𝐽𝐵𝐵𝐽𝐽𝐽𝑏𝑏𝑖𝑖+ 𝛽𝛽𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 ∗ 𝐷𝐷𝐵𝐵𝐷𝐷𝑏𝑏𝑖𝑖+ 𝛽𝛽𝑡𝑡𝑏𝑏𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡 ∗ 𝑇𝑇𝑒𝑒𝐵𝐵𝑝𝑝𝑏𝑏𝑖𝑖+ 𝛽𝛽𝑠𝑠𝑏𝑏𝑑𝑑𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠 ∗ 𝑆𝑆𝑒𝑒𝐵𝐵𝑆𝑆𝐵𝐵𝑛𝑛𝑏𝑏𝑖𝑖+ 𝛽𝛽𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏 ∗ 𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝑒𝑒𝑏𝑏𝑖𝑖+ 𝛽𝛽𝑗𝑗𝑑𝑑𝑟𝑟𝑏𝑏 ∗ 𝑅𝑅𝐵𝐵𝑅𝑅𝑒𝑒𝑏𝑏𝑖𝑖+ 𝛽𝛽𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑡𝑡𝑠𝑠 ∗ 𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝑇𝑇𝑆𝑆𝑏𝑏𝑖𝑖

Another example…UC Irving study on “Does money make you mean?”See car study starting at 8 minutes

New York Times – “Privilege, Pathology and Power” 1/1/16

Other kinds of observationObservation type Definition Cul-de-sac ExampleSystematic observation

Researcher uses standard form on which to record observations

Record number of basketball hoops, other toys and play equipment, chalk drawings, etc. on each street

Complete observation

Researcher observes without actively participating

Rent a house on a cul-de-sac, tell the residents why I’m there, then sit in the front window and observe kids

Participation and observation

Researcher participates after informing some group members

Rent a house on a cul-de-sac, tell the residents why I’m there, participate in life of the street, and observe kids

Covert (or complete) participation

Researcher keeps purpose secret and tries to act like other participants

Rent a house on a cul-de-sac, don’t tell the residents why I’m there, participate in life of the street, and observe kids

Participatory action research

Researcher serves as resource to participants to effect change – form of intervention

Rent a house on a through street to observe street play and work with residents to get the city to put in a barrier

Observation types for environmentsObservation type

Definition Cul-de-sac Example

In-situ Researcher makes observations in the field or in close proximity to the action.

Record air temperature of the street using an outdoor thermometer for each participant’s street.

Ex-situ Researcher makes observations remotely (often through secondary data)

Record air temperature from interpolated local weather data.

Secondary Data (Available Data)

The Census• Article I, Section 2 of the US Constitution calls for

enumeration of people every 10 years• First census in 1790, by mail only since 1960• Used for congressional redistricting

• Questions added to census over time:• 1940 to 2000: Long-form sent to ENTIRE population to

collect detailed data every 10 years• Post 2000: American Community Survey (ACS) sent to

250,000 households every month• Published as 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year data• Margins of error provided

ACS 5-year data in lab Friday!

Uses of Census and Other Data in Research• As a source of descriptive statistics at the

start of a research project.• As a way of identifying appropriate

communities to use as a part of a sampling plan.

• As a basis for assessing how well your sample matches the target population.

Include a table in your proposal!

Source: Popovich, et al. 2015

Compare sample to census data…

Other Census Bureau Activities• Economic Census• American Housing Survey

(HUD)• Consumer Expenditure Survey

(BLS)• National Crime Victimization

Survey (DOJ)• Current Population Survey

(unemployment, BLS)• Longitudinal Employer

Household Dynamics (LEHD)

City Adoption of Sustainability PoliciesLubell, M., R. Feicock, S. Handy. “City Adoption of Environmentally Sustainable Policies in California's Central Valley.” Journal of the American Planning Association 75: 293-308, 2019.

Sources:Documents!

Key informant interviews!

Content Analysis of Media

http://www.wired.com/2015/10/can-learn-epic-failure-google-flu-trends/

Environmental Data

• Remote Sensing• GIS from local, regional, and federal governments

Biogeochemical Cycling of the Southern Ocean

Dillon T. Fitch & J. Keith Moore (2007). “Wind speed influence on phytoplankton bloom dynamics in the Southern Ocean Marginal Ice Zone” JGR Oceans, 1120 (C8)

How does phytoplankton vary across the seasonal ice melt?How strong of an influence is wind in reducing the melt effect?• DV: Chlorophyll concentrations (represent phytoplankton

population) • IVs:

• Melting sea ice = low salinity water (due to brine rejection during ice formation) causes vertical stratification (i.e. phytoplankton have more opportunity to absorb light!)

• Wind = breaks verticle stratification and decreases light availability

• Iron = phytoplankton need it to grow (not a lot of it around…except for near the continental shelfs where atmospheric dust is)

• Spatial Sensor Microware Imager (SSM/I) : Sea ice cover

• SeaWifs sensor: Chlorophyll concentrations• Quickscat: windspeed

Relationship between MIZ area and Chlorophyll

Relationship between Wind Speed and Chlorophyll

Case Studies

Case Studies

• Case = a single person, group, community, etc.• Goal is to understand the behavior of the case• Often situated in one period of time

Selection of Cases

• Information sampling• Outlier cases reveal more than typical cases

Classic example (1860’s)

• Paul Broca• Fundamental research of language and

the brain• Frontal lobe (Broca’s area) “language

localization”• Showed that two patients who suffered

from aphasia had lesions in the left frontal region of their brains

Environmental Sciences

• Case studies usually community level• Utilize lots of different data

Federal funds for bike/ped projectsHandy, S. and B. McCann. “The Regional Response to Federal Funding for Bicycle and Pedestrian Projects.” Journal of the American Planning Association 77: 23-38, 2011.

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

$500

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Mill

ions

Other

STP - non TE

CMAQ

Enhancements

Federal bike/ped spending – 1992-2006

Federal Bike/Ped $ per Capita

48

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Sacramento Minneapolis Orlando Denver Baltimore Memphis

Low spendingHigh spending

Sacra-mento

Min-neapolis

Orlando Denver Baltimore Memphis

Fedl bike/ped $ per capita

$0.95 $1.30 $1.05 $0.53 $0.59 $0.53

% of fedl $ for bike/ped

2.4% 2.5% 2.6% 1.2% 1.0% 0.6%

# fedl programs used for bike/ped

9 9 5 5 3 1

% of fedl bike/ped$ from TE

40% 75% 60% 78% 81% 99%

Project types bikeways, trails,

general

trails, bike/ped

bridges

trails, sidewalks, bike lanes

trails, sidewalks

streetscapes, sidewalks

streetscapes, sidewalks,

trails

Focus of bike/ped program

transport recreation

transport recreation

transport recreation

transport recreation

recreation recreationredevt

Bike/ped commute share (2005-07)

3.6% 2.9% 1.6% 3.1% 3.2% 1.9%

Bike % 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2%Walk % 2.2% 2.2% 1.3% 2.4% 3.0% 1.7%

COMMITMENT HIGH HIGH MEDIUM MEDIUM LOW LOW

Bike/ped commitment in case study regions high and low

State DOT-Funding suballocation-State programs-Other support

Metropolitan Planning Organizations -Funding policies-Staff and resources-Advisory committees

Local Governments-Membership on MPO board-Submission of proposed projects

Bike/PedCommitment

Advocacy Groups

Factor Expectations State Sub-allocation Could give flexibility to supportive MPOs to spend federal funds on bike/ped projects.

TE match Lower match requirement would make it easier to fund bike/ped projects. State funding for bike/ped

Could help build bike/ped planning capacity, but could lessen demand for federal funds for bike/ped projects.

State bike/ped planCould establish bike/ped investment as a priority and give direction to regional and local bike/ped planning.State bike/ped staffCould provide assistance to regional and local efforts, administer federal funds, and sometimes serve as

advocates for bike/ped projects.

State bike/ped committee

Could establish bike/ped investment as a priority and give direction to regional and local bike/ped planning.

Complete streets policy

Requires attention to bike/ped needs in all projects and could increase spending on bike/ped infrastructure as a part of road projects.

MPO Policy on federal funding

Designated programs or set-asides for bike/ped could ensure minimum level of spending, but could constrain spending in some cases.

CMAQ use for bike/ped

Making bike/ped projects eligible for CMAQ would increase potential pool of funding for bike/ped.

Regional bike/ped $

Could help build bike/ped planning capacity and provide matching funds, but could lessen demand for federal funds for bike/ped projects.

Bike/ped plan Could establish bike/ped investment as a priority and give direction to regional bike/ped planning. Numeric goals more influential than general.

Bike/ped coordinator

Could ensure attention is paid to bike/ped needs in regional planning and programming.

Bike/ped committee

Could establish bike/ped investment as a priority and give direction to regional and local bike/ped planning.

Bike/ped in model Bike/ped in travel demand forecasting model could make it easier for bike/ped projects to qualify for funding and compete with other projects.

1991 Bike/ped $ Existing bike/ped program could make it easier to take advantage of ISTEA opportunity. Local Bike/ped support Supportive local governments could submit bike/ped projects to MPO for funding and push the MPO toward

support for bike/ped investments.

Local bike/ped plans

Could establish bike/ped investment as a priority which could lead to submission of bike/ped projects to the MPO.

Local bike/ped coordinators

Could ensure attention to bike/ped needs in local planning which could lead to submission of bike/ped projects to the MPO.

Advocacy groups Could increase the priority given to bike/ped projects. Advocacy efforts at state and local level may indirectly increase priority at regional level.

Factors expected to influence bike/ped spending (importance as shown in case studies = )

Next step: Quantitative Study

• All 380+ Metropolitan Planning Organizations• Data on bike/ped spending and on each of the

factors identified in case studies• Statistical analysis of relationships between factors

and spending

Next step: More Qualitative Study• Follow-up in-depth

interviews with…• Federal officials• State officials• MPO officials• Advocates

Cycling Lanes in Santiago de Chile. Viktoria Wesslowski

To do

Thursday, 3/8 Qualitative Data

Friday 3/10 Census data exercise in 75 Hutchison!!!

Tuesday, 3/14 Course Wrap up

Thursday, 3/16 Midterm #2

Saturday, 3/24 Final Proposal due 6pm !!! Early submissions encouraged