Obama Good - Links

8/14/2019 Obama Good - Links

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SDI 08

Elections

Elections Internals and General Links

Elections Internals and General Links.................................................................................................................................................. .....11NC Shell................................................................................................................................................................................ ........ ......... ...21NC Shell................................................................................................................................................................................ ........ ......... ...3OBAMA WIN ........................................................................................................................................................................................ .....4OBAMA WIN ........................................................................................................................................................................................ .....5

OBAMA WIN ........................................................................................................................................................................................ .....6Energy Key Issue............................................................................................................................................................................. ......... ...8Alt Energy Link - General........................................................................................................................................................................... .9Alternate Energy Link General........................................................................................................................................... ........ ......... ...10Alt Energy Link - Independents............................................................................................................................................... ......... .........11Ext Independent Links........................................................................................................................................................... ........ .........12Ext Independents Links...................................................................................................................................................................... .....13Independents key.................................................................................................................................................................... ......... ......... .14Alt Energy Link Colorado ................................................................................................................................................................ ......15Ext Colorado Link.................................................................................................................................................................................. .16Colorado Key....................................................................................................................................................................................... ......17Alt Energy Link - Florida....................................................................................................................................................................... ....18Ext Florida Link............................................................................................................................................................................... .......20Emission Cap Link................................................................................................................................................................................... ..21Emission Cap Link................................................................................................................................................................................... ..22

Emission Cap Link................................................................................................................................................................................... ..23Permits/Lieberman Warner Link.................................................................................................................................................. ........ ......24Permits/Lieberman Warner Links............................................................................................................................................................. ..25Warming Link................................................................................................................................................................................. ........ ...26A2: GOP Opposes Emissions Cap........................................................................................................................................................ ..27A2: GOP Opposes - General..................................................................................................................................................... ......... .......28A2: Base Key................................................................................................................................................................................... .........29A2: Oppose Economic Costs General................................................................................................................................... ........ .........30A2: Oppose Economic Costs Emission Cuts................................................................................................................................. .........31A2: Opposes Economic Costs Permits Specific.................................................................................................................. ......... ......... .32Bush Key................................................................................................................................................................................. ........ ......... .33Bush Key................................................................................................................................................................................. ........ ......... .34Bush Key................................................................................................................................................................................. ........ ......... .35A2: McCain Distances Himself.............................................................................................................................................................. ...36Obama Solves Alt Energy....................................................................................................................................................... ......... .......37Obama Solves Emissions/Cap and Trade................................................................................................................................ ......... .......38Ext Normal Means = Grandfater.................................................................................................................................................. ........ ...39Ext Grandfathering Bad........................................................................................................................................................ ........ ......... .40Obama Solves Biofuels/Cellulistic Ethanol.......................................................................................................................................... ...41

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SDI 08

Elections

1NC Shell

A. Uniqueness (Or insert update card)OBAMA WILL WIN - INDEPENDENTS.CILLIZZA 6/26/08 [CHRIS, staff writer for washingtonpost.com, Washington Post.com,http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/26/AR2008062601307.html?hpid=topnews&sid=ST2008062601354&pos =]

Independents, who were widely written off during the 2004 election in favor of appeals by the candidates to theirrespective party bases, look likely to play a central role in picking the next president in these fourbattleground states. And for now, Obama has a clear edge over McCain among independent voters inall four states. That lead is largest in Minnesota, where Obama takes 54 percent amongindependents compared with just 33 percent for McCain. The Democrat's lead was 13 points in Wisconsin,12 in Colorado and eight in Michigan.Obama's lead among independents is all the more important given the large number of voterseschewing the two major parties in each state. In Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin, roughlythree-in-ten voters identify as independents; in Colorado that number is closer to four in ten.

The political environment in each state suggests a decidedly uphill climb for McCain in the generalelection. In Colorado, just 31 percent of voters approve of the way President Bush is handling his

job, while 63 percent disapprove. In Michigan, the numbers are even more dismal, with a meager26 percent expressing approval of Bush and a whopping 67 percent disapproving.

B. Link

1. Supporting Alternate Energy Swings Election its the key issue

Young, 6/24/08 (Eric, NRDC, PR Newswire)"Tied into both the economy and the environment, energy will be the defining issue of this election," LCV President Gene Karpinski said."The American people demand a new energy policy that breaks our addiction to oil and dirty coal. Members of Congress who fight for aclean, renewable energy future will be back to fight next year, but those who stand in the way will have to answer to the voters in

November.A Gallup poll released today indicates that energy is the top issue priority for 51% American voters . (http://www.gallup.com/poll/108331/Obama-Has-Edge-Key-Election-Issues.aspx)."Americans are feeling pain at the pump and many experts say high gas prices are here to stay," NRDC's Energy Advocate Jim Presswoodsaid. "With prices set in the global marketplace and only 2 percent of the world's oil reserves here at home, there is simply nothing we cando to impact prices by drilling. The real solution is clear: we must take bold action to break our addiction to oil and transition to a cleanenergy future. A future where new cars like plug-in hybrids go farther on a gallon of gas, enhanced public transit systems give Americans

more transportation options, and renewable sources of energy power our communities.

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SDI 08

Elections

1NC Shell

2, Increasing Bushs Popularity is the only way for McCain to win its the vital internal link and

he cant distance himself

Farmar, 5/21/08 (John, national political correspondent for The Star-Ledger of Newark, Times ofTrenton, lexis)The most important name in this November's presidential and congressional elections won't be on the ballot in the fall. It's Herbert Hoo . .. oops, it's Bush, George W. Bush.As if more evidence was needed that Bush is the chief issue this year , last week's election of a Democrat in a deeply conservative andusually reliable Republican congressional district in Mississippi, of all places, underscores the fact that he has become toxic for his party, asclose to a pariah as a president can get.Bush, whose approval ratings are lower than any previous president's, may be a nice guy, as his admirers insist, but he has made himselfand the GOP label he embodies a liability for all those who'll run under the Republican banner this fall, from John McCain, the party's

presidential standard-bearer, to any number of poor blokes running for sheriff in the boondocks.Don't take my word for it. Listen to the leaders of the GOP establishment in Washington. Virginia Rep. Tom Davis, for one, served as thecanary in the mine shaft after the stunning victory May 13 of Democrat Travis Childers in Mississippi.In a 20-page memo to his House Republican colleagues, Davis wrote that "the political atmosphere facing Republicans this fall is the worstsince Watergate and is far more toxic than it was in 2006." The GOP lost 30 House seats two years ago in districts that stretched from coastto coast; it could lose up to 25 more this year, Davis said.Republicans have gone through this kind of ordeal before, in each case as a result of a national revolt against a GOP president. In 1932,Herbert Hoover and Republicans suffered a crushing defeat, ushering in the New Deal era under Democrat Franklin Roosevelt. In

November 1974, Republicans paid for Richard Nixon's breach of the public trust even though Nixon had resigned.Davis was not alone. "The Republican brand is down, and it is going to be hard to get it back," lamented Rep. Devlin Nunes, a CaliforniaRepublican. And New York Republican Rep. Peter King even suggested that, for safety sake, Republicans may have to find another identity- like figures in the witness protection program, say."You are going to have to run on who you are," King said, "and establish some independence, and that is going to be tougher for some thanothers."What's ironic here is that many of the same Bush Republicans had little or no use for McCain who, because of his frequent breaks withRepublican orthodoxy - on embryonic stem cell research, campaign finance reform and global warming - wears the GOP brand morelightly than most. But even McCain has the Bush monkey on his back, as Mike Huckabee, his erstwhile rival for the presidency and now astaunch supporter, observed after Childers' victory in Mississippi."The Republican brand is badly damaged," Huckabee said. McCain, he said, "can't run on the Republican brand."How McCain can escape it, however, remains a mystery. He's tied hand and foot to Bush on the president's Iraq policy. But even more

potentially damning is McCain's embrace of the Bush's unwise and unfair tax cut regime, which, if kept in place, would make it virtuallyimpossible to deal rationally with the country's debt and entitlement spending problem - a first step toward restoring the value of the dollar.

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SDI 08

Elections

OBAMA WIN

OBAMA WILL WIN

EconomyFAUCHER 6/28/08[Augustine, director of macroeconomics at Moody's Economy.comin West Chester, Pa, Boston Globe,

http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2008/06/28/economy_bodes_ill_wind_for_mccain/]HISTORICALLY, ECONOMIC conditions have played an enormous role in presidential elections,even as other factors come into play. Economic downturns are bad news for the incumbent, whileexpansions tend to lead to reelection. Franklin D. Roosevelt unseated Herbert Hoover in the depth of the Great Depression in

1932. Boom times helped reelect Ronald Reagan in 1984 and Bill Clinton in 1996. For all the money and timeand effort that go into campaigning, the results of presidential elections often seem totrack basic economic conditions.My employer, Moody'sEconomy.com, has developed a model to predict the outcome of thevote in each state, based on economic conditions at the time of the election. The resultsforecast the Electoral College vote. And as of June, the model is predicting a big victoryfor the Democrat, Senator Barack Obama.

All Electoral indicatorsMONTOPOLI 6/25/06 [BRIAN political correspondent, CBS NEWShttp://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/06/25/politics/horserace/entry4207063.shtml]

Does Barack Obama already have the presidency locked up? For Democrats, it might betempting to think so.A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll out yesterday shows Obama with a 12 point edge an advantage that stretches to 15 points when Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are included.

The poll also suggests that more voters are identifying as Democrats than Republicans,and that John McCain is suffering from a passion gap while just 58 percent ofconservatives said they would vote for McCain, 79 percent of liberals vowed to vote forObama.In addition, almost every metric in the race favors the Democratic candidate amongthem the candidates fundraising ability, trends in party identification, anddisenchantment with the current (Republican) president. McCain seems to realize that he faces an

uphill battle: At a fundraiser yesterday, the presumptive GOP nominee said, We are behind, we are the underdog. Thatswhat I like to be.

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http://economy.com/http://economy.com/http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2008/06/28/economy_bodes_ill_wind_for_mccain/http://economy.com/http://economy.com/http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/06/25/politics/horserace/entry4207063.shtmlhttp://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-poll25-2008jun25,0,http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-poll25-2008jun25,0,http://economy.com/http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2008/06/28/economy_bodes_ill_wind_for_mccain/http://economy.com/http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/06/25/politics/horserace/entry4207063.shtmlhttp://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-poll25-2008jun25,0,


5/42

SDI 08

Elections

OBAMA WIN

McCain ImplodingJenkins, 6/30/08 [Paul, staff writer, Huffington Post http://www.huffingtonpost.com/paul-jenkins/the-mccainbush-effect-on_b_109881.html]

When a Republican spokesperson recently said that "there are no safe Republican seats in this election," she was talking

about Congressional races, but she may as well as have been describing the presidential election. It is increasinglyclear that the Arizona Senator can rely on very few safe havens (perhaps even includinghis ownstate.) At this point, McCain can only count on 56 (!) electoral votes as being solidly in his camp(ie, those where he leads in most recent polling by more than 10 points). By contrast, Obama can count on closeto 200 (270 are needed.) It is hard to exaggerate the difficulty of the task ahead forMcCain, even this long before the election. He is running 15 to 20% behind Bush in awhole series of red states where independents have not jumped back on his bandwagon,and where many of Bush's core supporters appear to be planning to sit it out (or vote for BobBarr, the Libertarian candidate). McCain will not win by relying on reluctantly loyal GOP support inWyoming, Utah, Nebraska, Kentucky, Kansas (barely), Nebraska, Tennessee, Oklahomaand Idaho, the only states where he is comfortably ahead. Meanwhile, Obama has basically already closedthe deal in the entire Northeast and large swaths of Midwestern and Pacific ex-swingstates.

Much will happen over the next few months but there is nothing that McCain can do to rectify the situation. There is noreason for anyone to vote for a Republican in 2008, let alone for the party's current presidential candidate, except for thosevoters who hate abortion and gay people more than war and recession. They exist, sadly, but not l ikely in numbers large

enough to make a difference. Bush has made a laughing stock of those who favored Republicans'foreign and economic policies only to see a GOP administration get the US mired innation-building and expanding deficits, and create a bigger, more powerful, moreexpensive and more intrusive Federal government. McCain is hardly the man to put the country back onthe track where 78% thing it belongs: the Iraq war is as much his as it is Bush's, and he is equally as inept on economic

issues.

PollsAngus Reid Global Monitor 6/29/08 [Angus Reid Global Monitor: Polls & Research Obama has six point lead overmccain in US http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/31115/obama_has_six_point_lead_over_mccain_in_us]

Democrat Barack Obama is leading Republican John McCain, according to a poll by the

Franklin and Marshall Colleges Center for Opinion Research. 42 per cent of respondents wouldvote for the Illinois senator in this years United States presidential election, while 36per cent would support the Arizona senator.

Multiple ReasonsBarabak 6/29/08 [Mark, LA Times Staff writer, LA Times http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/politics/la-na-mccain29-2008jun29,0,3957628.story]

That campaign, not incidentally, was the last time the economy played such a large role in a presidential election. In aworrisome sign for McCain, surveys show that economic issues again top the politicalagenda, with most voters saying Obama would do a better job addressing healthcare,record gas prices, even taxes -- usually a GOP strong suit -- than McCain.

Part of Obama's advantage may be Democrats' image as the more compassionate party.Some of it may be McCain's clumsiness (or honesty); during the primary season heconfessed to being less conversant on economic issues than on defense and nationalsecurity matters, words that Democrats have gleefully thrown back at him. The biggestpart may be guilt by association; many blame the current President Bush for the tougheconomic times and assume that McCain will continue his policies, with the sameresults, for another four years.

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SDI 08

Elections

OBAMA WIN

LATINO AND WOMEN VOTE AND SOLID BASE.Hogarth 7/1/08 [Paul, staff writer, Beyond Chron: San Franciscos Alternative Online Dailyhttp://www.beyondchron.org/news/index.php?itemid=5826]

But anyone who closely follows the election online knows that Obama has solidified the

Democratic Party base and is on a clear path to winning the presidency in November.After Hillary Clinton suspended her primary campaign and endorsed Obama, pundits wrote (and still write)stories about disgruntled Hillary supporters who will vote for John McCain in the November election. Womenare not supposed to vote for Obama because, according to Geraldine Ferraro, hes run a terribly sexistcampaign. Latinos are supposedly too racist to vote for a black candidate and pundits say a sizable numberwill vote Republican (ignoring the partys xenophobic jihad on immigration policy.)

But the facts are getting into the way of that theory. A recent poll shows Latinos breaking 62-28for Obama over McCain, with other polls showing similar results. When you consider that Bush got40% of the Latino vote in 2004, its obvious that Latinos are deserting the G.O.P. in droves. Alongwith labors unprecedented get-out-the-vote effort to target that community inNovember, Obama is likely to pick up either Colorado, New Mexico or Nevada andpossibly all three states.And McCain has more to worry about Republican women deserting him than vice versa. Not only have Democraticwomen united behind Obama, but polling shows McCains anti-choice record (once womenhear about it) is going to be ahuge liability. I'm sure there are female Hillary Clinton voters who will go for

John McCain in the general election, said Katha Pollitt inThe Nation, but I don't think too many of them will be feminists.Because to vote for McCain, a feminist would have to be insane.

Obama will win the general because he has a solidified lead in all the states John Kerrywon in 2004 even swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. While theblue states wont be enough to win the Presidency, it prevents Obama from having toplay defense giving him 252 electoral votes in the bag and shifting the battle intotraditionally Republican states.

OBAMA WILL WIN HISPANIC VOTEFeierstein and Iparraguirre 6/28/08. [Mark, VP @ Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, a Democratic polling firm, Ana, Sr,associate @ Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, Huffington Post http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-feierstein-and-ana-iparraguirre/obama-and-hispanics-anoth_b_109762.html]

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http://www.beyondchron.org/news/index.php?itemid=5826http://www.beyondchron.org/news/index.php?itemid=5826http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/6/18/1102/27911/591/537420http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/6/18/1102/27911/591/537420http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/6/17/11351/0830/975/537036http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/6/17/11351/0830/975/537036http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/6/17/11351/0830/975/537036http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080707/pollitthttp://www.thenation.com/doc/20080707/pollitthttp://www.pollster.com/08-MI-Pres-GE-MvO.phphttp://www.pollster.com/08-MI-Pres-GE-MvO.phphttp://www.pollster.com/08-WI-Pres-GE-MvO.phphttp://www.pollster.com/08-WI-Pres-GE-MvO.phphttp://www.pollster.com/08-PA-Pres-GE-MvO.phphttp://www.pollster.com/08-PA-Pres-GE-MvO.phphttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-feierstein-and-ana-iparraguirre/obama-and-hispanics-anoth_b_109762.htmlhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-feierstein-and-ana-iparraguirre/obama-and-hispanics-anoth_b_109762.htmlhttp://www.beyondchron.org/news/index.php?itemid=5826http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/6/18/1102/27911/591/537420http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/6/17/11351/0830/975/537036http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080707/pollitthttp://www.pollster.com/08-MI-Pres-GE-MvO.phphttp://www.pollster.com/08-WI-Pres-GE-MvO.phphttp://www.pollster.com/08-PA-Pres-GE-MvO.phphttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-feierstein-and-ana-iparraguirre/obama-and-hispanics-anoth_b_109762.htmlhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-feierstein-and-ana-iparraguirre/obama-and-hispanics-anoth_b_109762.html


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SDI 08

ElectionsThis is not some esoteric debate over a minor voting block. To misread Hispanic voters is to miss afundamental dynamic of the presidential race. For all the talk about race and gender, it is ethnicitythat may determine the next president of the United States.Hispanics are the fastest growing demographic group in the country, and they turnedout in the primaries in higher numbers relative to 2004 than any other segment of thepopulation, except for voters under 30. As the presidential campaigns map out paths to 270 electoral votes, nearlyevery scenario involves winning a significant share of Hispanics, who will account for up

to 1 in 10 voters in November.At the top of almost every list of swing states are four with sizeable Hispanicelectorates - New Mexico (31 percent), Nevada (13 percent), Florida (11 percent) and Colorado (8 percent). GeorgeBush won all four of these states in 2004 and all but New Mexico in 2000, but each one is likely to becompetitive this year.

Throughout the primaries, Hispanics were solidly behind Hillary Clinton, who benefited from positive memories of herhusband's presidency and an opponent whose record and background were little known to many Latinos. Obama's relativelyweak performance among Hispanics in the primary has helped fan the idea that he has a Latino problem or that Hispanics

are disinclined to vote for black candidates.In fact, Obama is running well ahead of John McCain among Hispanics, and significantlybetter than John Kerry did against George Bush in 2004. Obama's leads in national pollsare due to his strong advantage (about 35 points) among Latinos. Take out Hispanics, and therace is effectively tied.The gains that Republicans made among Latino voters in 2000 and 2004 were erased in

2006, and there are few signs that McCain is in a position to win them back. TheRepublican brand name has been so severely damaged that it would be difficult for anyRepublican to retain much support among Hispanics this year.

MCCAIN IS GOING TO LOSE BUSH EFFECT.Jenkins, 6/30/08 [Paul, staff writer, Huffington Post http://www.huffingtonpost.com/paul-jenkins/the-mccainbush-effect-on_b_109881.html]

When John McCain clinched the GOP nomination, it was widely believed that his relativepopularity among moderates and independents may well save the party from a Bush-causedbloodbath in November. Things, however, do not quite seem to be working out like that:

Texas, Georgia, Indiana, North Carolina, Alaska, Mississippi, and South Carolinaare toss-ups or barely leaning to McCain, and

dozens of House and Senate races in even the reddest of states are in play.

The horror of George W. Bush's presidency pushed away voters in the political centerand now McCain is finishing the job, causing shrinkage at the far-right of the GOP whilecompounding the losses among independents. Rather than rallying disaffectedRepublicans and unaffiliated voters, McCain's candidacy is turning off the few remainingGOP loyalists. The result: a party with which only 25% of voters identify.

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SDI 08

Elections

Energy Key Issue

Energy policy determines election

Staunton, 6/24 (Dennis, Irish Times EU Correspondent, lexis)BARACK OBAMA and John McCain have clashed over energy policy, accusing one another of pandering to voters as rising fuel prices

have become a leading issue in the American election.Nine out of 10 Americans identify energy policy as very or extremely important in deciding their presidential vote in November, making itthe top election issue, along with the economy.

Environment and energy are key issues determine swing votes

PR Newswire, 11/7/07SYRACUSE, N.Y., Nov. 27 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- With everyone paying attention to environmental issues -- even BP andWalMart are in the act -- it's no surprise that people plan to take the planet into consideration when choosing their president. Over 30,000adults across the US were recently surveyed in the new Earthsense Eco-Insights Survey that profiles attitudes about global and nationalissues, candidates, green products, eco-friendly companies and purchase intent. Concern about energy prices and the environment resonateswith more than half of all voters who indicate that it will have an extremely or strong impact on their vote in the upcoming presidential

primaries. The issue is particularly salient among Democrats, especially likely John Edwards and Bill Richardson voters. More so thanmost other issues, the environment is politicized across party lines. Swing voters place a level of importance on the issue more similar toregistered Democrats whose voting intentions are more firm; the importance of the issue for Republican voters lags by comparison.

Energy is the key issue GOP must address

NPR, 6/24/08GOP Must Address Climate ChangeEnergy policy has been fueling the debate between Barack Obama and John McCain this week. McCain has spent the past two days inCalifornia, promoting his proposals for greater energy independence. He faced protesters and chants of offshore no more today outside atown-hall-style appearance in Santa Barbara.Inside, McCain faced tough questions about his proposal to build more nuclear power plants and his call to end the federal moratorium onoffshore drilling, a ban he once supported.Recognizing that energy is a key issue for voters, McCain has enlisted some top supporters to help sell his proposals. One of them isRepublican governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota. He's a national co-chair for McCain's campaign, and he's often mentioned as a possiblerunning mate.

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9/42

SDI 08

Elections

Alt Energy Link - General

GOP must strengthen credentials on energy and environment to avoid election defeat

National Journal, 10/20/07As was indicated in the story on the energy bill in thatsame National Journal issue ["Fizzling Out?" p. 48], a GreenbergQuinlan poll for theLeague of Conservation Voters after the 2006 elections showed huge numbers of independents voting to change the leadership of Congress

because they were dissatisfied with GOP leadership on the energy issues that are so critical in the debate over addressing global warming.This data and a follow-up survey suggest that this tendency will be even more pronounced in the 2008 elections.

Supporting Alternate energy steals key issue from democrats

Raum, 6/24/08 (Tom, Writer, associate press, Lewiston morning tribune, lexis)If you pull into the Obama station, he'll promise you cash back from the windfall-profits tax he plans to slap on Big Oil. Check the tires?How about promises to go after oil-market speculators who help drive up prices as well as big subsidies for solar, wind, ethanol and otheralternative-energy projects? The Illinois senator likens his energy package to the Kennedy-era space program.Oil and gas prices that have doubled in the past year have squeezed aside the war in Iraq as the No. 1 issue this election year and both

parties are blaming each other for the price spike - and for apparent congressional paralysis.Obama and McCain have made high gas prices a top issue in their campaigns and have offered dueling remedies aimed at easing them.Their positions are being echoed daily by their surrogates on Capitol Hill. And both make it sound as if only their proposals would chart the

path to lower fuel prices and a final cure for what President Bush once labeled the nation's addiction to foreign oil.This debate is certain to get louder as the November election approaches.In a USA Today-Gallup Poll released Monday, nine in 10 people said energy, including gas prices, would be very or extremely important indeciding their presidential vote in November, tying it with the economy as the top issue. People said Obama would do a better job thanMcCain on energy issues by 19 percentage points.

Alternate energy incentives cause GOP win coopts criticism, steals a key issue and inaction hurts

incumbent party

Staunton, 6/24 (Dennis, Irish Times EU Correspondent, lexis)WASHINGTON - With consumers fuming over the high cost of gasoline, Republicans and Democrats each want to prove they alone offerthe path to lower pump prices.Republicans argue that drilling in coastal waters, Alaska and the Rocky Mountain West will boost oil supplies. Democrats counter thatalternative-energy development will free consumers from fossil-fuel captivity.The problem, energy analysts say, is that neither solution will cut prices right now. Even over the long term, only a marriage of the twoapproaches will work.And neither party will agree to a wedding in an election year with the Oval Office at stake.

"The parties have a lot of incentive not to solve the problem and blame the other side ," said Julian Zelizer, political-science professor atPrinceton University and author of several books on Congress. "Unhappy voters are the voters people think can be swayed."In the last month, Democratic Reps. Mark Udall of Eldorado Springs and Ed Perlmutter of Golden and Republican Rep. Marilyn Musgraveof Fort Morgan have held news conferences at gas stations.Lawmakers know they must offer fixes, with pollsters for both sides saying voters list fuel costs as a top concern. There are no clear-cutsolutions, however.High gas prices have started to prompt less driving, but they're still too low to force rapid change. Oil would need to hit $150 to $200 a

barrel and stay there before private investment moves heavily into alternative fuels and transportation, said John Kilduff, energy analyst atMF Global in New York.Repealing Environmental Protection Agency limits on the sulfur content in diesel fuel would increase fuel supplies, said Philip Verleger, anAspen-based energy economist. But that's politically difficult.Voters want anything that mightwork .In a Zogby International poll this month asking what government actions people favored to lower fuel costs, 60 percent backedencouraging domestic drilling. Almost as many, 59 percent, supported cutting demand by boosting fuel-efficiency standards, and 54 percentendorsed the use of alternative fuels such as ethanol and biodiesel.

The survey did not ask people to pick one option over another. Political advisers are coaching Republicans to talk about more drilling andrenewable energy. Democratic strategists suggest giving solutions that include cracking down on oil speculators and pushing gasalternatives. They also advise blaming President Bush.Playing both ends against middlePresidential candidates are aiming for pleasing the political middle, analysts said."There is a choice that is before folks," said Hari Sevugan, a spokesman in Democrat Barack Obama's presidential campaign. "Do we wantleadership that's been tied to the folks making money from (high gas prices), or do we want leadership that's fighting for us on this?"

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Alternate Energy Link General

Massive public support for alternate energy new polls prove

Marshall E. Purnell President, American Institute of Architects, CQ Testimony, 6/11/08The American public believes the time is now to reduce energy usage and reduce the impacts of climate change. The Tarrance Group and

Lake Research Partners recently conducted a nationwide poll of voters and found that 74 percent of those polled agreed that "thegovernment should take the lead in promoting real estate development that conserves our natural resources." In addition, 71 percent ofvoters agreed that "the government should immediately put into effect new energy policies that drastically reduce greenhouse gasemissions." The Americanpublic supports conserving our precious resources, and believes that it is in the best interests of our nation andthe world to reduce our reliance on fossil fuel produced energy and move towards a sustainable future. Reducing energy use in our nation'shomes would be a major step towards that goal.

Overwhelming public support for alternate energy perceive inaction now

Kull, 4/17/08 (Stephen, Director, World Public Opinion.org,http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/pdf/apr08/WPO_Oil_Apr08_pr.pdf)Of all countries polled, Americans are the most negative about their governments performance in making efforts to replace oil as a primaryenergy source.More than three in four (76%) believe that their government should make long term plans to replace oil as a primary source of energy,while just 23% feel that enough new oil will be found.A majority (57%) says that the US government is acting based on the assumption that enough new oil will be found, while just 41% believeit is making plans on the assumption that oil will need to replaced as a primary energy source.

Nearly nine in 10 (88%) feel that in 10 years, the cost of oil will be much (63%) or somewhat higher (25%) than it is now.

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Alt Energy Link - Independents

Must Reverse stance on energy and environment to win crucial swing voters

National Journal, 4/23/08When it comes to the White House, environmental issues could matter more in the general election than they have in the primaries , some

political analysts say. Daniel Weiss, senior fellow and director of climate strategy at the Center for American Progress, noted that the

Energy Department is predicting that gasoline prices will rise to $3.40 a gallon this summer as campaigns heat up. He argued that highenergy prices could hurt McCain because of his opposition to rolling back tax benefits for the oil companies and requiring electriccompanies to use more renewable sources of energy. McCain has, however, frequently supported legislation to require auto companies to

produce more-fuel-efficient vehicles. If the environmental community decides to campaign against McCain, he won't feel much pain inthe deep-red conservative states, where he has already been downplaying his green record. But green issues could be key to winning the

purple-state moderates and independent voters who could decide the general election. "Linking clean energy and global-warming solutionsto future economic growth is essential to appeal to swing voters in November," Weiss said.

Independent voters key

Chusid, 6/17/08 (Ron, physician internal medicine, liberal values, lexis)The Washington Postshows the new conventional wisdom in writing that, "McCain needs support from independents because in recentelections, partisans have overwhelmingly supported their own party's candidates, and self-identified Democrats now outnumberRepublicans." Suddenly elections are no longer decided by mobilizing the extremes but once again are decided by which direction the

independents go. This story comes in a report of their recent poll which shows that Obama and McCain are even among independents. Thismight be accurate in terms of people who at this moment in time consider themselves independents, but it can be misleading if taking along term view of politics. I'm less interested in those who say they are independents right now as opposed to a larger group of voters whoshift party allegiance over the years. Many of the people I would consider independents currently label themselves as Democrats. Suchvoters considered themselves Republicans or independents in past elections but are no longer included in polls of independents. If theseindependent voters could be accurately polled, I'm confident that Obama would have a large lead among independents. McCain also gets a

boost in a poll of self-identified independents as many people who now call themselves independents are people who were Republicansbefore George Bush. While we have only had one election since 1980 without a Bush on the ticket, this election remains heavily influencedby George Bush. It is largely due to the extremism and failed policies of George Bush that many former independents now considerthemselves Democrats and that many former Republicans are now independents or Democrats. Bush approval has reached a new low at29% in this poll, with views on Bush influencing views on McCain. While 80% of those who approve of George Bush are backing McCainonly 26% of those who disapprove of Bush are supporting him. Newstex ID: LIBV-0001-26048891

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Ext Independent Links

Reducing emissions and oil dependence are crucial issue for swing voters

Christian Science Monitor, 11/27/07Environmental issues are typically low on the list of public concerns when choosing candidates and presidents. But independent voters - a

key to winning the open primaries and general election - view energy independence and climate change as very important, according to asurvey cited in The New York Times."After immigration, reducing oil dependence and global warming is the second-most-important issueamong independent voters, said Daniel J. Weiss, the director of climate strategy for the Center for American Progress Action Fund.... Mr.Weiss cited a Democracy Corps poll released last month, which also found that among Democrats, it is the fourth-most-important issue."

Alternate Energy key issue for swing voters extremely popular

National Journal, 10/6/07Democratic pollsters disagree. "Energy is a huge issue,"said Celinda Lake, president of Lake Research Partners. "The war is top, but thenenergy is part of the next level of issues that also includes the economy and health care," she said. "Energy Is a very, very big umbrella

because it speaks to national security, it speaks to the environment, it's green jobs, it's the future." The environment and energy areparticularly important issues for independent voters, Lake noted. "They're among the top issues for Democrats to talk to independent menabout," shesaid. "They believe new energy technology will create good-paying American jobs. They like energy independence. They don'tlike oil companies."

Pro environmental policies swing independent votersMurray, 6/3/08 (Ian, DNC Member, States News Service, lexis)

"I am now, after much thought and consideration, supporting Barack Obama for the presidency of the United States and will be voting forhim at the convention in Denver. I have been a strong supporter of Hillary and Bill Clinton since 1991, having chaired and run BillClinton's 1992 and 1996 campaigns in Erie County. I have continued until this time to endorse with all my heart the candidacy of HillaryClinton. She has been a true champion of the Democratic ideals that are so important to voters of Northwestern Pennsylvania. It is clear tome though that Barack Obama has the required votes for nomination at the convention in Denver. Barack Obama's message of change andhis positions on health care, the Iraq war, the environment, the economy, and other issues vital to the Democratic Party have resonated withrecord numbers of voters including young voters, independents, and like-minded Republicans . I have been involved in running campaignsin Northwestern Pennsylvania since 1972, this epic contest between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton has fortified in me the vitality ofthe Democratic Party and its hopes and vision for our future. I pledge all my support, my heart, and my passion for Barack Obama and will

be working night and day in the coming days and weeks to bring the Obama and Clinton camps together and unify in NorthwesternPennsylvania as we begin our quest for that which all our futures and health depend, the election of Barack Obama."

Environmental issues key to swing voters

PR Newswire, 10/17/07"As voters weigh the cost and benefit of each candidate, it is important to note the lasting effect and cultural importance the environmenthas on the average voter. Across all political affiliations, the environment is seen as a major cultural issue of our time. Interestingly, a largemajority (68%) of Americans agree with Al Gore's environmental views, despite the fact that 80 percent of those polled have not seen hisfilm or read his book."As a network focused on showcasing independent thought, we believe the independent voters will be the difference in the upcomingelection. While this poll was meant to determine how significant an impact Al Gore's Nobel Prize had on the American political culture,where the environment fit into the grander political landscape and how his film and his recognition will effect the coming presidential race,it is our hope that this survey not only provides insightful understanding of our nation, but also a strong voice to those voters who are

passionate about the issues, but have not yet found their candidate."

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Ext Independents Links

Pro Environment stance key to win swing voters

Star Ledger, 3/2/07

"The importance of the endorsement is that people who care most about the environment tend to be swing voters, including liberal

Republicans and women," he said. "That helps a lot in close races."Tittel said past questionnaires have played a role in the enactment of important environmental legislation ."This questionnaire helps to focus not only on the work we do, but the work of the Legislature as well," Tittel said. "Over the past fiveelection cycles, at least two-thirds of the bills (the Sierra Club backed) have become law, such as the Highlands Act, the Clean Car Act,dedicated funding for open space, clean diesel legislation, (and) restoring the public advocate's office."Tittel said global warming is the Sierra Club's top priority and environmentalists want to know the candidates' positions on a series of billsthat work together to address the issue, including capping greenhouse gas emissions, energy efficiency and conservation.

Pro Environment popular with swing voters

Straits Times, 5/20/08With his image of being a maverick, Mr McCain has long irked the party's core conservative base with his pro-abortion, pro-immigrationand pro- environment stances .But these positions are popular with Hispanics, independents and women - the swing voters that the party needs to hold onto.

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Independents key

SWING VOTERS ARE KEY 2004 PROVESFOURNIER, STAFF WRITER FOR AP POLITICS FOR 20 YEARS,07[RON, DEMOCRATIC HOPEFULS SNUB MODERATES, AP ONLINE, JULY 25, LEXIS]

During the 2004 presidential campaign, political operatives convinced themselves that there were a

dwindling few of these so-called swing voters, and that the only way to win elections was playing to

"the base" the most dedicated Republicans and Democrats. They were wrong. The political middle is as significant asever, with voters in a mood to swing due to their frustration with both major parties.

SWING VOTERS KEY THEYRE A THIRD OF THE ELECTORATE

New York Times, 10/2/07

The fight for independent voters could be important not just in determining the nominees, but alsoas a preview of the general election battle. The percent of Americans who call themselves

independents has increased, to 32 percent from 28 percent in 2000, according to pollsby The New YorkTimes and CBS News.

( ) These swing voters are key to the election GOP is guaranteed nearly 45% of the vote.

Goldberg 07 (Jonah Goldbergs column, syndicated by Tribune Media Services, and he is the 2001 winner of theprestigious Lowell Thomas Award. LA Times October 23rd --http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/sunday/la-oe-goldberg23oct23,0,5528341.column?coll=la-util-opinion-sunday)

Besides, Bush is leaving no matter what. And unlike every other election since the 1920s, there's no White House-approved candidate in the race. Any Republican will start with 40% to 45% of the vote in his pocket once he getsthe nomination. The question that remains is whetherthe critical 5% to 10% of swing voters will think Hillary Clintonrepresents the sort of change they want.

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Alt Energy Link Colorado

Plan swings Colorado steals the most important democrat issue

Kaplun, 6/3/08 (Alex, Environment and Energy Daily Reporter, Lexis)The back-and-forth on energy policy has become a staple of recent statewide political campaigns, as voters view the development ofrenewable energy as a potentially major economic engine for Colorado and as voters in some corners of the state have expressed concern

about the impact of drilling on the environment.Pundits say that with voters worried about high gas prices in general and the economy as a whole, the candidates' ability to win the energydebate could prove to be particularly critical this time around ."As a candidate, you've got to have an economic policy and something about Iraq, but a very good way to frame it, whether you're talkingabout foreign and domestic issues, is through energy policy and in particular a renewable energy policy ," said Republican Colorado pollsterFloyd Ciruli. "It's become a very popular sort of framework for discussing everything else ."Experts say that while swing voters will likely never view the former Republican congressman as being particularly strong on theenvironment, the campaign could find success if it can simply eliminate from the voters' minds that he is an "Big Oil" candidate."I think he's going to try to make the case, but I really don't know if he's going to be able to make it successfully," Ciruli said. "The generalrule for Republicans is while they don't need to be known as environmentalists, they need to have some environmental credentials."Ciruli pointed out that while Allard is not typically viewed as a strong environmentalist, he has been able to blunt attacks in past campaigns

by highlighting his push for the creation of Great Sand Dunes National Park and a few other environmental initiatives.But officials from environmental groups say that one of their goals in the contest is to ensure that Republicans are not able to eliminatewhat they describe as the stark differences between the candidates on energy policy.

Colorado is the vital swing stateUSA Today, Political Wire and Western Democat, 5/28 (quoted in coyote Gulch, lexis)May 28, 2008 (Coyote Gulch delivered by Newstex) -- Politics West:"'The new must-have state could be Colorado, a state that's votedRepublican in the last three presidential elections but has been moving toward the Democrats,' according to USA Today. 'Tell me (whowins) Colorado and I will tell you the winner,' says Bernadette Budde, a political analyst at BIPAC, a business-oriented political actioncommittee. Evidence to support this idea has been readily apparent in Colorado this week with appearances by Sen.John McCain, Sen. Barack Obama, and President Bush - all within the last 36 hours." Political Wire:"Gallup Poll: 'In the 20 states whereHillary Clinton has claimed victory in the 2008 Democratic primary and caucus elections (winning the popular vote), she has led JohnMcCain in Gallup Poll Daily trial heats for the general election over the past two weeks of Gallup Poll Daily tracking by 50% to 43%. Inthose same states, Barack Obama is about tied with McCain among national registered voters, 45% to 46%.'" Western Democrat:"As werecently posted, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada are shaping up as key battleground states for the 2008 election. Not surprisingly, andas Kari just noted, both Senator Barack Obama and Senator John McCain are already campaigning in these three states." Category: 2008Presidential ElectionNewstex ID: COY-0001-25601850

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Ext Colorado Link

Supporting alternate energy massively popular in Colorado its the key issue

Kaplun, 6/3/08 (Alex, Environment and Energy Daily Reporter, Lexis)With the Colorado Senate race heating up, both candidates and their supporters are moving quickly to stake out a positive image onrenewable energy development -- an issue that is poised to play a central role in the November election .

The two parties have for months eyed the contest between Rep. Mark Udall (D) and former Rep. Bob Schaffer (R) as one of the pivotalSenate contests of the 2008 cycle. But the race has started to heat up over the last few weeks as the candidates formally seized their party'snomination and both camps quickly moved to establish the high ground -- or at least not fall too far behind -- in the debate over addressingthe country's energy needs.Udall and Schaffer are expected to mount a highly competative battle for the seat being vacated by GOP Sen. Wayne Allard, who isstepping down after two terms. Recent polls show Udall in the lead, though the margin varies from a virtual dead heat to the Democratleading by high single digits.Energy policy -- and in particular the development of renewable energy -- has been a major campaign topic in Colorado for severalcampaign cycles. And while it figures to be in play once again this time around, Democrats and their allies in particular see an opening toscore major electoral points by highlighting what they describe as the Republican candidate's oil-friendly record in an era when such animage can prove to be highly damaging to a campaign .

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Colorado Key

Colorado Key

Denver Post, 5/28The mountain West has become a key political battleground for the 2008 presidential election.Strategists are talking about how winning Colorado , Nevada and New Mexico could pave the way to an Electoral College win. Republican

presidential candidate John McCain came to Denver Tuesday, and today Democrat Barack Obama pays a visit.It's a heady moment for a part of the country that has flown under the radar in recent presidential campaigns. But it's also an opportunity toengage in the issues and challenge the candidates.As Coloradans, we have some particular regional concerns, such as water, public lands and energy development.But candidates can no longer stroll in, put on a cowboy hat and boots as part of some "Western strategy" and expect to hit it off withColoradans. We're a more diverse lot than that.We also have deep concerns about the war in Iraq, foreign affairs, the economy and immigration. And like the rest of the country, we want

better schools and an affordable health care system that works.But a Western strategy to win the White House is an opportunity for residents here to have their voices heard, a chance to influence the

political discourse something along the lines of the way Iowa does by having the first political caucus.We hope Coloradans take advantage of the opportunity by reading up on the issues that move them and forming opinions.As the presidential campaign moves into its final six months, the mountain West can play a key role in defining the candidates andtightening up the race.Polls done by Rasmussen Reports show Obama with a modest lead over McCain in Colorado, 48 to 42 percent. In New Mexico, thenumbers are 50 to 41 for Obama. In Nevada, McCain was leading Obama 46 to 40 percent.

One of the reasons the candidates have targeted the region is the very same reason their strategists will find it particularly difficult to get aclear bead on the place: unaffiliated voters.Colorado is loaded with them, and they're notoriously difficult to poll. McCain has traditionally done well with them.But Obama showed this week that he gets it when he said Western voters are "independent minded" and would look at the last eight years

before deciding whether the country is better off under Republican rule.A key challenge for Obama will be to make inroads with Hispanics and overcome the geographic advantage that McCain, who is fromArizona, brings to the table.McCain will have to differentiate himself from the Republican brand, which hasn't played all that well in Colorado in recent years.It's lining up to be a fascinating final few months of the presidential campaign.The Western strategy, along with the Democratic National Convention taking place in Denver in August, means there will be no shortage of

politicking as the road to the White House cuts through the mountain West. For Westerners, considered under a ``Republican lock'' duringthe Reagan years, being in play politically not only gives us the opportunity to size up the candidates firsthand but to shape the course ofthe presidential debate.

Colorado Key

Radelat, 6/18/08 (Ana, writer @ gannett news service, lexis)Political analyst Charlie Cook said Obama also is hampered by an image problem."He is a very sophisticated and exotic candidate who is not necessarily the face of all Democratic voters," Cook said.Cook said the Obama campaign probably has discounted the Deep South as it seeks to capture the 270 electoral votes needed to win theelection. The race likely will be decided by key swing states elsewhere in the country, including Pennsylvania, Ohio, Nevada, Colorado andMissouri."The bad news for Obama is he's going to win very few Southern white males," Cook said. "The good news is it doesn't matter. Thiselection isn't about Southern white Democrats. "

Colorado swings election

Madden, 6/13/08 (Kevin, GOP Strategist, CNN)So look, I think Mitt Romney is the strongest candidate in the field out there, because he has a regional -- a broad regional appeal beyond

just Massachusetts. And he has his home state roots in Michigan. He also did very well in places like Colorado and Nevada, which aregoing to be crucial battleground states in the general election.

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Alt Energy Link - Florida

Energy key issue in florida alternate energy massively popular

Business Wire, 6/12/08A recent nonpartisan opinion poll crystallizes Floridians' concerns about the economy with energy and oil prices as top concerns. The poll

shows that an overwhelming majority - 72 percent - of voters support moving forward on projects that would provide Florida with moreenergy at less cost. Four of every five persons (81%) polled wanted to see a proposed deep water natural gas port slated for 8 to 10 milesoff the coast of Fort Lauderdale completed."The reality of higher fuel and energy costs are hitting home for Florida residents," said Gene Ulm, professional pollster and primaryresearcher on the project. "Climbing fuel costs combined with worries about the economy have converged to reshape priorities forFloridians. In these times, Floridians strongly welcome any solution to short energy supplies and high costs."Key findings of the survey include:When asked which issues should be the top priorities for Florida's elected officials, 46 percent chose as their top answer either "cutting thecost of oil and energy" or "improving the job and economic situation"64 percent of voters strongly support expanding Florida's use of natural gas for electricity generation and other forms of environmentallyclean energy that are less expensive than oilWhen initially asked about the project, about six in 10 voters favor the building of the deepwater Liquefied Natural Gas port. After learningsome basic facts about the project, support increased to a full 81 percent, with 52 percent expressing "strong support." In Broward County,the closest county to the proposed off-shore site, 47 percent of residents strongly favor the building of the Calypso Deepwater Port.

Florida Key

Tallahassee Democrat, 7/1/08As an indication of how important Florida figures in this year's presidential race, Republican John McCain has put his southeastern regionalcampaign headquarters in Tallahassee.Campaign spokesman Mario Diaz said the GOP presidential contender has 17 staff members working out of the Republican Party ofFlorida headquarters. They will be handling operations for Florida, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia and the Carolinas.Florida decided the 2000 presidential race, with 25 electoral votes at the time, and it was an important "red" state in President Bush's re-election four years ago. This year, campaign strategists consider Florida a key battleground state - and Democrat Barack Obama hasmounted a serious effort in the state, too.

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Ext Florida Link

Warming is a key issue in florida

National Journal, 10/6/07Global warming could also have a high profile in California, Florida, and Minnesota, where Republican governors are aggressively backingaction to curb greenhouse-gas emissions. Speaking at the state Republican convention earlylast month, California Gov. Arnold

Schwarzenegger urged th eparty faithful to embrace more-moderate policies on climate change and other domestic issues.

Pro Environmental Policies Swing Important votes in florida

Grand Rapids Press, 04 (10/8)

While the top four issues to voters, according to polls, are the economy, terrorism and security, the war in Iraq and health care, theenvironment may be an important factor among swing voters in Florida , Ohio, Wisconsin, Oregon, New Mexico and Pennsylvania, saidMark Baldassare, research director at the institute."Moderate and independent voters are looking for candidates whose views reflect their own on a variety of issues ," he said. "Many areswing voters in the key battleground states, and they tend to have a pro-environment stances."

Alternate Energy popular in florida

Florida times union, 12/30/05Harnessing the power of the sun has long been popular in Florida, but rising fuel costs and new tax credits have many in the area looking tothe alternative energy resource with increased interest.ContWith oil still hovering near $60 per barrel, renewed interest in alternative energy sources has been on the rise. American Solar Energy has

been busy trying to meet new customer demands, said Bryan Wilson, an installer for the company. Wilson recently traipsed across the roofof a Julington Creek Plantation home to attach solar panels and cut pipes while installing a pool heating system.

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Emission Cap Link

Emission cap massively popular supporters more likely to swing votes than opponents

Kull, 04 (Stephen, Director, PIPA,http://65.109.167.118/pipa/pdf/jun04/ClimateChange_June04_rpt.pdf)

A very large majority of Americans (8 in 10) say that they support the targets of the McCain-Lieberman legislation (Climate StewardshipAct) that call for large companies to reduce their emissions to 2000 levels by 2010 and to 1990 levels by 2020. Two-thirds say they favorthe legislation even if it costs $15 a month for an average household. A modest majority says that if a candidate favors legislation requiringreductions in greenhouse gas emissions, this will increase the likelihood they will vote for that candidate ; only a very small minoritysays that it would decrease the likelihood. Those in favor of taking steps are more likely to have their vote influenced by a candidates

position than those opposed

Its popular across the political spectrum

Kull, 04 (Stephen, Director, PIPA,http://65.109.167.118/pipa/pdf/jun04/ClimateChange_June04_rpt.pdf)A very large majority of Americans say that they support the targets of the McCain-Lieberman legislation (Climate Stewardship Act).Respondents were introduced to the legislation and told about the targets for greenhouse gas emissions called for in one of the key drafts,for large companies to reduce their emissions to 2000 levels by 2010 and to 1990 levels by 2020. An overwhelming 81% said they favoredthe legislation, with just 16% opposed. Seventy-seven percent of Republicans, 85% of Democrats, and 79% of independents favored the

legislation.

Its more salient election issue for supporters than opponents

Kull, 04 (Stephen, Director, PIPA,http://65.109.167.118/pipa/pdf/jun04/ClimateChange_June04_rpt.pdf)Politics of Climate Change LegislationIf a candidate for political office were to favor a law requiring large companies to gradually reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, wouldthat make you more or less likely to vote for that candidate?Increase likelihood 52% No effect either way 32% Decrease likelihood 13% Mean 1.12Perhaps more significant, the more a person believes that the problem is real and pressing, the more likely it is to affect their vote. Amongthose who think global warming does not require taking steps right now, 48% say that a candidates position on climate change will affecttheir position, with 31% saying that if acandidate favors emission-reducing legislation this will decrease the likelihood they will vote for the candidate and 17% saying that it willincrease the likelihooda net effect of minus 14%. Among those who think that gradual steps are required, 60% percent say that it willaffect their vote, with 53% saying that favoring such legislation will make them more likely to vote for the candidate and just 7% saying itwill make them less likelya net effect of plus 46%. Among those who say that the problem requires serious action, a remarkable 85% saythat it will affect their vote, with support for such legislation producing a net effect of plus 67%.

Its politically beneficial in an election

Kull, 04 (Stephen, Director, PIPA,http://65.109.167.118/pipa/pdf/jun04/ClimateChange_June04_rpt.pdf)Apparently it would be advantageous for a political candidate to show support for such legislation. Respondents were asked how itwould affect their likelihood to vote for a candidate for political office if he or she were to favor a law requiring large companies togradually reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and asked to answer on a scale of +5 to -5, with +5 meaning that it will greatly increasethe likelihood you will vote for the candidate, -5 meaning that it will greatly decrease the likelihood you will vote for the candidate, and 0meaning that it will have no effect either way. A modest majority of 52% gave a score above zero; much more than the 12% which gave ascore below zero, while 33% gave a score of zero. Overall the mean score was 1.12.

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Emission Cap Link

Massive public support for emission cuts including mandatory controls, cap and trade and

Lieberman legislation

Global Public Opinion.org 07 (http://americans-

world.org/digest/global_issues/global_warming/gw1.cfmA variety of poll questions finds strong majority support for taking action to address global warming. As will be discussed below largemajorities favor US participation in the Kyoto Treaty and support the McCain Lieberman legislation.When respondents were simply asked in April 2005, Ipsos-Reid whether our government needs to do something about global warmingright now a strong majority of 70% agreed (very much 42%). Only 26% said they disagreed (very much 13%). [23]Gallup has found 75% favoring imposing mandatory controls on carbon dioxide emissions and other greenhouse gases. Only 22% wereopposed. [24]In a June 2004 PIPA poll, a strong 79% of all respondents said that the President should "develop a plan to reduce the emission of gases thatmay contribute to global warming." Only 19% said the President should not develop a plan. This was up significantly from a March 2001Time/CNN poll in which 67% agreed and a slightly higher 26% disagreed.[25].

Widespread majority favors mandatory emission controls

Global Public Opinion.org 07 (http://americans-world.org/digest/global_issues/global_warming/gw2.cfm

A strong majority of Americans favors the US abiding by and ratifying the Kyoto Treaty even when presented with the key arguments forand against the treaty. Only a minority is aware that President Bush opposes participation in the Kyoto Treaty. When respondents are toldthat that President Bush has decided to not abide by the Treaty approximately half oppose the decision while a fairly small minoritysupports it. A strong majority opposes his decision to not pursue reductions of carbon dioxide emissions and thinks he should proposedevelop some plan for reducing emissions. When the Kyoto Treaty was being negotiated in 1998 a strong majority supported the level ofemissions cuts proposed, even when informed that the US had originally sought less-deep cuts, and a plurality leaned toward deeper cuts.A strong majority of Americans have indicated their support for the Kyoto Treaty. In June 2005, PIPA simply asked based on what youknow, do you think the U.S. should or should not participate in the Kyoto agreement to reduce global warming. A strong majority of 73%favored participation. This was up a bit from September 2004, when only 65% favored it. Only 16% in June 2005 and September 2004opposed participation.In July 2004 the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations asked the same question in the context of a battery and found 71% in favor and19% opposed. This was up from CCFRs 2002 poll when 64% favored it and 21% were opposed.

Emission requirements are widely popular

Global Public Opinion.org 07 (http://americans-world.org/digest/global_issues/global_warming/gw2.cfmRelated to President Bush's decision to not support the Kyoto Treaty was his decision to not require reductions of carbon dioxide emissionsfrom power plants, despite his campaign promise to do so. This decision was opposed by a strong majority. In an April 2001 Pew poll 67%disapproved. [9] An April 2001 Los Angeles Times poll elaborated on Bush's reasons--adding, "He said that requiring carbon dioxidecontrols at this time would add too much to the cost of power production and that the nation instead needs an overall national energystrategy"and found a more modest majority of 54% opposed, while 34% supported Bush's decision. [10]Asked why Bush made this decision on carbon dioxide emissions, a plurality to a majority attributed it to pressure from, or his connectionsto, the energy industry. The April 2001 Los Angeles Times poll found 45% saying that it was because "Bush and some of his key advisorsare closely allied with the energy industry," while 36% said it was because "Bush now believes that there is not enough proof that carbondioxide emissions cause global warming to justify the costs." [11] A Newsweek poll taken the same month found 53% saying that it was

because of "special interest pressures from coal producers and others in the energy industry," while just 29% said it was because of "doubtsabout whether there is enough hard scientific evidence for such regulation and concerns about its effect on consumer energy prices." [ 12]Finally, it appears that even among those who are sympathetic to Bush's opposition to the Kyoto Treaty, many feel that he should come upwith some plan for addressing global warming. In a June 2004 PIPA poll, a strong 79% of all respondents said that the President should

"develop a plan to reduce the emission of gases that may contribute to global warming." Only 19% said the President should not develop aplan. This was up significantly from a March 2001 Time/CNN poll in which 67% agreed and a slightly higher 26% disagreed. [13]

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SDI 08

Elections

Emission Cap Link

Massive public support for mandatory emission reductions

Global Public Opinion.org 07 (http://americans-world.org/digest/global_issues/global_warming/gw2.cfmA key controversy is over whether the US should rely on voluntary measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or if the US should

legislate requirements for reductions. The most prominent legislation requiring such reductions of the Climate Stewardship Act, also knownas the McCain-Lieberman bill named after the Senators that have sponsored it.A very large majority of Americans say that they support US legislation that would reduce greenhouse gas emissions. PIPA introducedrespondents to the Climate Stewardship Act, and told them about the targets for greenhouse gas emissions called for in one of the keydrafts, which requires large companies to reduce their emissions to 2000 levels by 2010 and to 1990 levels by 2020. In June 2005, PIPAasked "based on what you know, do you favor or oppose having such limits on how much greenhouse gases large companies can emit" Anoverwhelming majority of 83% favored it with just 13% opposed. In June 2004 81% said they favored such limits with 16% opposed. [ 1]Americans also appear to be ready to accept significant costs in support of the legislation. First, respondents were told that "According toan estimate done by MIT, cutting greenhouse gas emissions as much as this draft of the new bill would require will increase various costs tothe average American household by about $15 a month." (See Appendix A) They were then asked how they felt about this estimate. Theresponse was neutral overall, with a plurality of 38% assuming that it is "approximately correct" and nearly as many saying that it seems onthe high side (28%) as saying it seems on the low side (27%). [2]They were then asked if they would favor the bill "If in fact it appears that it would likely cost $15 a month for an average household." Twoout of three (68%) said they would, while 28% said they would not. Democrats were just slightly more willing to accept the $15 cost (72%)than Republicans (67%). This support was virtually unchanged from June 2004, when 67% said they would accept costs of $15 a month.Only 28% said they would oppose it. [3]

Emission cap boosts electoral chances

Global Public Opinion.org 07 (http://americans-world.org/digest/global_issues/global_warming/gw2.cfmA modest majority says that if a candidate favors legislation requiring reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, this will increase thelikelihood they will vote for that candidate, while only a very small minority says that it would decrease the likelihood.In June 2004, PIPA also asked how it would affect the likelihood that they would vote for a candidate for political office if he or she "wereto favor a law requiring large companies to gradually reduce their greenhouse gas emissions" and asked to answer "on a scale of +5 to -5,with +5 meaning that it will greatly increase the likelihood you will vote for the candidate, -5 meaning that it will greatly decrease thelikelihood you will vote for the candidate, and 0 meaning that it will have no effect either way." A modest majority of 52% gave a scoreabove zero; much more than the 12% which gave a score below zero, while 33% gave a score of zero. Overall the mean score was 1.12. [ 5]

It is worth noting that Americans were more willing to support a candidate that favors the Climate Stewardship Act regardless of partyaffiliation, though as one might expect, Republicans were less likely to support such a candidate than Democrats and Independents.Perhaps more significant, the more a person believes that the problem is real and pressing, the more likely it is to affect their vote. Amongthose who think global warming does not require taking steps right now, 48% say that a candidate's position on climate change will affecttheir position, with 31% saying that if a candidate favors emission-reducing legislation this will decrease the likelihood they will vote forthe candidate and 17% saying that it will increase the likelihood-a net effect of minus 14%. Among those who think that gradual steps arerequired, 60% percent say that it will affect their vote , with 53% saying that favoring such legislation will make them more likely to votefor the candidate and just 7% saying it will make them less likely-a net effect of plus 46%. Among those who say that the problem requiresserious action, a remarkable 85% say that it will affect their vote, with support for such legislation producing a net effect of plus 67%.When asked about hypothetical candidates Americans also show support for those who express concern and seek action on global warming.In the Mellman Group's September 1998 poll, 58% said they would view "a candidate for political office" who "spoke out in support ofreducing the threat of global warming" as "forward-looking and speaking to a real problem," while only 23% said they would view such acandidate as "too interested in environmental issues and ignoring bigger problems." [6]However, it does not appear that most voters regard this issue as decisive. When asked to assume that "you agreed with a particularcandidate on most issues and were of the same political party, however, that candidate voted against efforts to reduce the threat of global

warming," a plurality of 41% said they would still be likely to vote for that candidate, while 38% said they would not. Nonetheless, the factthat 38% said they would change their vote over this issue is still quite high. [7]

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