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NO LOST CAUSESInside the transformation of Colombia
Remarks by Alvaro Uribe VélezAPRIL 2013
Issues to address
1. A historical problem2. Facing the problem: From
campaign to Government3. Generating change in times of
crisis4. Colombia current challenge5. Peace process with FARC6. Latin America’s big challenges
1. A historical problem
“Every creative journey begins with a problem”
Colombia in 2002 was a fragile State
Security
28.837 homicides
2.882 kidnappings
69 homicides per 100.000 habitants
1.645 terrorist attacks
350 mayors out of their municipalities
158 municipalities without police
Economy
Average Economic Growth 1994-2001: 2.1%
GDP per Capita: US$2377
Investment as % of GDP: 16.5%
Exports: US$11.975 million
FDI: US$2.100 million
Inflation: 6.99%
Fiscal balance: -3.2%
SocialUnemployment: 16.2%
Health Coverage: 25 million Colombians.
Pension affiliates: 4.5 million
Poverty:57%
Education Coverage: Primary 97%, High school: 57%, University: 24%.
Mobil Phone Lines: 4.6 million
Internet coverage: 1.9 million
The Colombian Paradox: a long and stable democracy in a permanent threat from terrorist groups, drug dealers and organized
crime…
1. A historical problem
Colombia faced a Confidence DeficitThe elusive quest for
peaceMany governments exhausted all their
political capital attempting to reach
peace through political dialogue…the result was military strengthening
from illegal armed groups and a rapid growth in
their criminal activities (68% thought the
country was going in a negative track)
Terrorist Groups (Guerrillas and
Paramilitaries) had created a sense of
defeat in the Colombian people
Fear impacted in the Colombian people
Mindset
The lack of investmentThe drain of human
capitalThe sense of danger in
Colombian roadsThe expansion of
massive kidnappings created an emotional
domino effect
2. Facing the problem
Vision
Policy
PRINCIPLES
CommunicationInnovation
Leadership
Results
2. Facing the problem
VISIONOur vision was to build a Comunitary State:
CONFIDENCE was our main goal Without Confidence:
No investment Unemployment Lack of opportunities Brain Drain (Young people wanted to leave without a
return ticket) Three main Policies:
Democratic Security Investment with fraternity Social cohesion
For the First Time a National Development Agenda had Security as a driver of Development (Security = Investment = Social Cohesion)
No more a debate between left and right
2. Facing the problem
POLICY• Democratic Manifiesto (100 Points)
Democratic Security
Security for All
Fight all forms of crime
Security without Martial Law
Security with liberties and Human Rights
Victims recognition
Investment with Social
ResponsibilityInvestor Security (Human, Legal
and Political)
Sound Macroeconomics
Incentives
Access to markets
Competitiveness Factors (Infrastructure, Connectivity,
Banking,)
Social Cohesion
Education Revolution
Health with coverage and quality
Access to credit (Banca de oportunidades)
Vocational Training
Conditional Cash Transfers
2. Facing the problem
Principles
Political Pedago
gy
Build a citizen
coalition
Macro Vision & Micro
Management
Permanent dialogue
with citizenship
Beyond traditional
politics (Colombia
FIRST)
Accountability
Security as a
Democratic Value
2. Facing the problem
Messages
Security as a Democratic Value
Strong hand with a big heart
To work, work and work
Against corruption and traditional politics
Communication
2. Facing the problem
InnovationBefore
Presidents inside the office
Presidents not engaged in details
Lack of an effective vision communication
Solve problems through political
channels
Political calculations
Secretaries appointed by Political
Representation
Secretaries rotated on a permanent basis
Luxurious governments
Congressional Governance
InnovationPresident with the People(Consejos Communitarian)
Macro vision & Micro Management
Three eggs
Face problems with regular citizens
Pedagogic policy formulation
Secretaries appointed by experience
4 year term secretaries
Austerity
Citizen Governance
2. Facing the problem
Innovation in SecurityRecovering
SecurityMacro Vision and Detailed Follow up:•Daily commitment to monitor security in every region.
•How citizens had the President Mobile Phone Number
Early Victories :•Road caravans
•Massive kidnappings are over
Strategic Force Integration•All Forces working together.
•Share success
National Informant Network•Citizens became active in denouncing criminals
•Reward Mondays
Commander in Chief assumes responsibility•The Granda Story
•Operation Fenix: Fire the Air Force Commander
•Operation Jaque: The pressure for a humanitarian exchange and the final outcome
Smart Weapons:•The importance of strategic warfare
Extradition:•The decision to extradite the Paramilitary Kingpins
2. Facing the Problem
Leadership
Mobilization
Drivers
306 Communita
rian Councils
Weekly Security Councils
52 Economic dialogues
Result Driven
Administration
Leading by example
Direct Democracy
(Sate of opinion)
Determination to find solutions
Communication with the truth
2. Facing the problem
Moments of truth:1. Nogal Bomb: Bogota cries but never surrenders2. Killing of 11 regional senators: Facing their families
when rejecting humanitarian exchanges3. The rescue of Fernando Araujo4. Meeting Chavez after the Bombardment in Ecuador:
a debate in live T.V.5. The rescue of National University President6. The story of Emmanuel7. The military agreement with the U.S.8. Operations FENIX and Jaque9. Extradition of the paramilitary leaders
Leadership: Tough Decisions
2. Facing the problem
Indicator 2002 2010
Homicides 28.838
15000
Kidnappings 2.882 228
Homicides per 100K Habitants
69 35
Terrorist attacks
1.645 250
Municipalities without mayors
presence
350 0
Municipalities without police
158 0
Security EconomyIndicator 2002 2010
Average Economic Growth
2.1% 4.3%
GDP per Capita
2.377 5.300
Invest % GDP
16.5% 24.6%
Exports US$11.000
US$ 39.000
FDI US$2.100
US$ 7.000
Inflation 6.9% 2.5%
SocialIndicator 2002 2010
Unemployment 16.2% 11.6%
Health Coverage 25.1 million
43.1 million
Pension affiliates 4.5 million
7.1 million
Poverty 57% 37%
Education coverage (Primary,
Hs, University)
97%57%24%
100%79.4%35.5%
Mobile phone users
4.6 million lines
41 million lines
The combination of our Policies produced significant results: Lowest violence levels in two decades, highest levels of social coverage in Colombian History and highest levels of
Exports and FDI in more than 5 decades.
Results
2. Facing the problem
Leadership, governance based on citizen support and political Will, helped built significant historical changes in strategic sectors: Reform the oil and gas sector:
1. Colombia is close to produce 1 million barrels per day from 250.000 in 2002 2. Ecopetrol Reform 3. Created the National Hydrocarbon Agency
Reform the Telecom Sector:1. Restructure the Colombian Telecommunications Agency
Reform the Colombian Social Security Agency More than 2000 criminals were extradited Paramilitary structures were dismantled FARC suffered its biggest historical defeats Colombia experienced its largest historical FDI flows Biggest historical reduction in illicit crops More than 10 FTA’s signed and negotiated Largest historical health and education coverage Largest historical credit expansion Largest historical tourism flows to the country
Results
3. Change in times of crisis
Lessons
Lincoln• Get out of the
office• Honesty• Courage• Strong Hand• Commit to
results• Preach a vision• Talk to people
directly
Kotter• Honesty• Energy• Competence
Moss Kanter• Consistency• Congruence• Competence• Caring
Security
Maintain Macro-Vision and Micro-
Management
Continue dismantling all
terrorist organizations
Continue dismantling drug cartels apparatus
Strengthen Citizen Security agendas
with local authorities
Economic
Face new trends of currency
appreciationMaintain and
increase FDI flows (Security,
incentives and stability rules)Fiscal Policy to
face new countercyclical
challenges
Increase tax collections
Expand new trade markets through
FTA’s
Social Cohesi
onFight labor
informality and create quality jobs
Insure education and health quality
Expand vocational training coverage
Create Entrepreneurial Family Transfers
program
Political
Judicial reform
Strengthen Democratic Center
Improve local institutional
capacity
New law implementation
(Victims and land)
Prevent the emergence of
populist movements
4. Colombia current challenges
5.Peace talks in Colombia
1. Defining peace: Colombian National Seal has two important concepts: Liberty
and Order A peaceful country requires the right exercise of individual
liberties and a general environment of institutional and social order
In 2002 Colombia lacked both Concepts: 28.000 homicides 2800 Kidnappings 1645 terrorist attacks 350 Municipalities without majors
Our Democratic Security Policy was built to restore institutional order and protect the exercise of individual liberties. It was a policy for peace not a policy for war. The great evidence is that by 2010 homicides were reduced 50%, kidnappings 80% and terrorist attacks by 90%
5.Peace talks in Colombia
2. Our Democratic Security Policy was based on Strong Hand and Big Heart. We conceived Universal Demobilization for all members of
illegal armed groups We confronted all illegal armed groups with the same
determination and open the door for peace processes. Under clear conditions defined in the Peace, Truth and Reparation Law
The peace process with AUC was based on: Cease of illegal activities International verification (OAS) Incarceration Anyone who did not cooperate or continued with illegal activities will
lose the privileges and be extradited if any extradition request existed
No eligibility for those accused for crimes against humanity or crimes different than political delinquent practices
5.Peace talks with FARC
Prevent Big Failures today:
Negotiation without seizure of criminal activities Negotiating Policy with weapons on the table
clearly affects Colombian Democratic Values Allowing political participation to individuals
responsible for crimes against humanity is a wrong message for our democracy
No imprisonment Allowing dictatorial regimes that affect liberties
and support FARC, as guarantors is a bad signal
5. Peace talks in Colombia The Peace process that I would support:What Colombia
thinks
68% of Colombians are not willing to pardon crimes committed by terrorist
organizations
78% of Colombians are against no prison sanctions
for terrorists
72% of Colombians are against political
participation by terrorist groups
My opinions
No impunity for crimes against humanity
Justice, peace and reparation
Immediate release of kidnapped people
Unilateral cease of criminal activities
My opinions
International verification of disarmament
No policy agenda on the table
Reinsertion agenda
6. Latin America’s big challenges
Policy Changes since 1980 match four range of opportunities
Population
Close to 600 million people
Average age between 24 and
28
Per Capita Income in PPP
close to US$10.000
Poverty reduction
64% of our population is a expanding middle class
During the last decade 40 million people have left
the poverty lineLife expectancy has
increased from 65 to 75 years
Child mortality has been reduced by 50 per cent
Literacy rates are above 94%
Mobile phone penetration has increased by 78 per
cent
Internet access has increased by 33%
Healthcare coverage has increased by 50 percent
water and sanitation coverage has reached
80%
Commodities in time of Demand10 percent of the
World oil reserves
6 percent of the World Gas reserves
Almost 50 percent of the World cooper
reserves 50 per cent of the
World silver reserves
13% of the World iron reserves
26% of the World fertile land
24% of the World beef supply
Bio Reserves
20 per cent of the World
Biodiversity is concentrated in the Amazon ring
Almost 50% of the World
potable water supply
57% of the world primary
forest
The strengthening of Liberal
Democracy
The adoption of an institutional
Framework in favor of foreign
and national investment
The construction of a sound and
sustainable social safety net
The expansion of export markets
and the commercial
integration with the World (FTA’s)
A public administration
driven by results
A sound Macroeconomic Administration driven by fiscal and monetary
prudence
Better regulatory environment
Construction of strategic
infrastructure
The consolidation of an innovation
agenda leaded by an improvement in
education
A well capitalized financial sector and
the constant expansion of
financial services
The change process is a consequence of the consistency, congruence and sense of urgency that a group of countries have adopted as their policy cornerstone. Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Chile, Peru and Uruguay represent 70 per cent of the region’s population and 75% of the regional GDP.
Today countries like Panama, Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Paraguay, as well as most of the Caribbean States, are following that line of behavior
6. Latin America’s big challenges
The regional current Political Map is a “Tale of two cities” like the Charles Dickens Book… (The ALBA and the non Alba Model)
ALBA (Leaders: Venezuela, Ecuador,
Bolivia, Nicaragua and Cuba)
Anti-U.S
Anti-Free Trade
Lack of investment Confidence
Weak institutions
Political Insecurity
Ideology driven countries
Political Polarization
Modern Democratic Center Countries (Brazil, Colombia,
Peru, Chile, México, Uruguay, Paraguay, Panamá, Republic Dominican, Costa Rica, etc)
Cooperation with the U.S.
Pro Free Trade
Investment Confidence
Independent Institutions
Political Stability
State Long Term Policies and Mgt by
Results
Organized Party Systems
The Democratic Center takes the lead: • Investment grade countries are in this Group: Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Panama.• Countries with more market access through FTA’S are in this group• Countries with more FDI are in this group• Countries with more Middle Class Expansion are in this group.• Better fiscally sustainable social programs: Chile, Mexico, Brasil and Colombia.
Only the group of Countries in the Democratic Center will become the regional active participants of the Emerging Markets Boom…some of the ALBA Members will see some benefits, but without solid long term development agendas, they will face transitory profits…
But not all the socio-economic models are a success story…
6. Latin America’s big challenges
Venezuela
Inflation
Reduction in oil production
Brain drain
Social conflict
Insecurity
Private initiative in Jeopardy
Bolivia
Loss of citizen support
Quality of live deterioration
Lack of private initiative
Loss in private investment
Ecuador
Press Liberties in danger
Lack of long term private
investment
Political stability at the expense of higher tensions
Oil driven political power
Nicaragua
Institutional deterioration
(Reelection without constitutional
authority)
Corruption
Private initiative: Uncertainty
Shameful Chavistas
Bad policies are deteriorating the political and economic context in the ALBA Countries….
6. Latin America’s big challenges
Building Modern
Democracies (5
parameters)Security
Freedoms and Private Initiative
Independent Institutions
Social Cohesion
People Participation
A dynamic Economic
transformation
Investment Target Policies
Maintaining Fiscal and Monetary transformation
Integrate commodity and
knowledge based economies
Expand export markets
Create an Entrepreneurship culture (Innovation
agenda)
Closing Social Gaps
Improve education (quality, coverage,
vocational)
Insure Universal Healthcare
Formal Job creation
Access to Finance
Climate Change,
Environment and
Energy Sustainabilit
yExpand renewable sources
Install an energy efficiency
conscience
Improve waste management
Protect the Amazon Ring
Reduce Co2 Emissions
Despite the changes that have been achieved some important challenges remain…
The region top challenges
6. Latin America’s big challenges
Final Thoughts
1. Human problems require human solutions
2. Our strategy worked because it was conceived by the people, by the people for the people
3. Our esence was pedadogy not demagogy
4. Macro Vision and Micro Management are esential to succed in times of crisis
www.alvarouribevelez.com