NWS River Forecast Operations Current Status and Future Plans

Kate E. Abshire National Water Center

National Weather Service

NASA Flood Response Workshop

June 13, 2016

NWS Mission and Goals

• NOAA NWS Mission

– “NOAA’s NWS provides weather, water, and climate data, forecasts and warnings for

the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy.”

• Strategic Outcome: Weather Ready Nation

– Ready, Responsive, and Resilient

• NWS Strategic Goals

– Improve Weather Decision Services

– Improve Water Forecasting Services

– Enhanced climate services and adapt to climate-related risks

– Improve sector-relevant information in support of economic productivity

– Enable environmental forecast services supporting healthy communities and

ecosystems

– Sustain a highly skilled workplace equipped with training, tools, and infrastructure to

meet mission 2

Socioeconomic Impacts

On average, over the past 30

years in the U.S., flooding has

claimed near 90 lives and caused

damages in excess of $8 billion

annually

• Floods occur in all 50 of the

United States

• Threat all months of the year

• More fatalities than any other

severe weather related

phenomenon

• More than half of all flood-related

deaths result from motorists

being swept away in their vehicles

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NWS Operational Infrastructure

4 National Water Center

National

Water Center

Weather

Prediction Center

National

Hurricane

Center

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NCEP Centers • Weather Prediction Center - QPF, PQPF, Excessive

Rainfall Product, Heavy Rain Mesoscale Discussion

• Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 day, 8-14 day, and monthly/seasonal temperature and precipitation anomaly products

National Water Center • National Snow Analysis • National Water Model (Coming Soon)

NWS Operational Infrastructure

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River Forecast Centers (RFCs)

• Flash flood guidance

• QPF

• Multi-sensor precipitation analyses

• River forecast guidance (deterministic and probabilistic) with extended service/hours during flood events

• Significant River Flood Outlook

• Routine multi-agency collaboration

• Water supply forecasts

• Outreach, training, and general WFO support (SCH & DOH)

• Model calibration, verification, and other development activities

NWS Operational Infrastructure

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Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) • 24x7 hydromet watch function

• QPF

• Flash flood watches and warnings

• River forecasts and warnings

• Local outreach and education (SH, hydro focal point, or WCM)

• Flash flood verification (LSRs and Storm Data Reports)

• Real-time precipitation and river gage data analysis and quality control

• Local data network management (equipment and data base management (e.g., (IHFS))

• Event-based decision support services

• Web service delivery QA/QC

WGUS42 KTAE 021419 FLWTAE FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 919 AM EST TUE DEC 02 2008 OCHLOCKONEE RIVER NEAR CONCORD AFFECTING GADSDEN AND LEON COUNTIES ...MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING...FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE... SAFETY MESSAGE...ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU SEE FLOOD WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN. FLC039-073-031419- /O.CON.KTAE.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /CONF1.2.ER.081201T0846Z.081202T1401Z.000000T0000Z.UU/ 919 AM EST TUE DEC 02 2008 ... OBSERVED FLOODING INCREASED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY... THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER NEAR CONCORD. * UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 9:01 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 32.2 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 30.0 FEET. $$

NWS Operational Infrastructure

http://weather.gov/

“click on” RIVERS, LAKES & RAINFALL

for current river conditions

http://water.weather.gov/ahps

Accessing AHPS Information

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“click on” the forecast location to access the local hydrograph

Accessing AHPS Information

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“click on” Probability tab to view probabilistic forecasts

Accessing AHPS Information

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• Provide spatial extent and depth of flood waters

• Display inundation maps for levels from minor flooding through flood of record

• Better mitigate impacts of flooding and build more resilient communities

• Libraries include NWS flood severity categories and regulatory FEMA flood frequency maps

Implementation Status:

137 Flood Inundation Map Libraries

Continued Partnership with FEMA, USACE, USGS, States, & Others

“click on” Inundation Mapping tab to view flood inundation maps

Accessing AHPS Information

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Enhancing Current Forecasting System Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS)

Probabilistic information to support risk-based decisions

• Incorporates both atmospheric and hydrologic uncertainties

• 123 locations have experimental product for short-range river forecasts

• Testing and evaluation ongoing; collecting feedback via web

• New river service locations will expand throughout 2016

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• Weather-Ready Nation (WRN)

• Ambassadors Program

• Turn Around Don’t Drown

• Partner and community engagement

• Seasonal Safety Campaigns

• Partner engagement - coordinated flood messaging

• High Water Mark Initiative

• Federal Working Group

New Services: Outreach

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Impetus for Change Growing Water Challenges

Multiple Threats

•Population growth and economic development are stressing water supplies and increasing vulnerability

•A changing climate is impacting water availability and quality, increasing uncertainty

•An aging water infrastructure is forcing critical, expensive decisions

•Socio-economic risks of floods and droughts are escalating

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Stakeholder Priorities Case for Change

Flooding Water

Quality Water

Availability Drought

Climate Change

Need integrated understanding of near- and long-term outlook and risks

Transform information into intelligence by linking hydrologic, infrastructural, economic, demographic, environmental, and political data

Actionable Water Intelligence High Resolution, Integrated Water Analyses, Predictions and Data

National Water Center Initial Operating Capacity: May 26, 2015

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A Catalyst to Transform NOAA’s Water Prediction Program

Mission: Nationally Integrated Water

Prediction

• Earth system modeling and geo-intelligence for water prediction

• Operations Center for water resources common operating picture

• Decision support services for spectrum of water stakeholders

• Proving ground to accelerate research to operations

• Interagency and Academia Collaboration

Transforming NOAA Water Prediction

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TODAY THE FUTURE

Approximately 4000 forecast locations at points

Approximately 2,700,000 forecast stream reaches

Forecast river flow/stage, from summit to coastal zone

Forecast all hydrologic parameters which define the water budget, from summit-to-sea

Driven by large catchment “lumped” modeling

Driven by high/hyper resolution Earth System modeling

Forecaster “in the loop” – serial, basin to basin, modeling of flow through the river network

Forecaster “over the loop” – parallel, simultaneous modeling the nation’s entire river network

Average basin size greater than 420 square miles

Average basin size ~1 square mile

13 RFCs developing separate versions of the same regional model

13 RFCs, NWC, academia, and federal partners developing/evolving same state-of-the-science national model

RFC-generated river forecasts coordinated with WFOs to deliver Impact-based forecasts at selected points

NWM-based predictions coordinated among NWC, RFCs, and WFOs and linked with detailed local infrastructure data to communicate street level impacts

Movie (slide show to view)

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lbA2KoYSEsg

• WCOSS Implementation and experimental product availability in FY16 Q4

• NWC/NCAR/NCEP partnership

• Implementation accelerated by 2 years

• Foundation for sustained growth in operational hydrologic forecasting capability

• Goals for NWM V1.0

• Provide forecast streamflow guidance for underserved locations

• Produce spatially continuous national estimates of hydrologic states (soil moisture, snow pack, etc.)

• Implement a modeling architecture that permits rapid infusion of new data and science, and allows for geointelligence linkages

• Complimentary Water Resources Data Services and Evaluation Services are required

National Water Model Version 1.0

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• Hydrologic Output

• River channel discharge and velocity at 2.7 million river reaches

• Reservoir inflow, outflow, elevation

• Surface water depth and subsurface flow (250 m CONUS+ grid)

• Land Surface Output

• 1km CONUS+ grid

• Soil and snow pack states

• Energy and water fluxes

• Direct-output and derived products (e.g. stream flow anomalies)

• Three pronged dissemination strategy

• NOMADS

• Web

• Direct to field

NWM V1.0 Experimental Output

Current NWS AHPS points (red) NWM output points (blue)

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Current NWS River Forecast Points (circles) Overlaid with NWM Stream Reaches

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Summary • NOAA’s Water Services are Evolving

• We are building a foundation for change – but have a long way to go

• Deliver comprehensive, integrated actionable water intelligence

• Compliment current services with new information spanning Summit-to-Sea, Floods to Droughts, Treetops to Bedrock

• Implementing State-of-the-Art Technical Approach

• Water prediction through state-of-the-science earth system modeling

• Impact-based decision support services underpinned by geo-intelligence

• Scale Change: Orders of Magnitude More Data

• Reach-based “Street Level” prediction

• High Performance Computing

• New Organization, Cornerstone Facility and Philosophy

• National Water Center

• Collaborative, cross-NOAA, interagency, academic partnerships

Questions?

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