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NWS & IAEM Partnership in the Digital Era. Brig. Gen. D.L. Johnson, USAF (Ret.) NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services November 15, 2005. Climate. Atmosphere. Land. Oceans. Space Environment. Overview. NWS & IAEM Partnership in the Digital Era. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"
Brig. Gen. D.L. Johnson, USAF (Ret.)
NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services
November 15, 2005
Brig. Gen. D.L. Johnson, USAF (Ret.)
NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services
November 15, 2005
NWS & IAEMPartnership in the Digital EraNWS & IAEMPartnership in the Digital Era
“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"
OverviewOverview
• The Nation’s Risks: Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water
– 2005 (YTD) in Review
• The Future: Action for America
– Strategic Initiatives
• The Nation’s Risks: Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water
– 2005 (YTD) in Review
• The Future: Action for America
– Strategic Initiatives
LandOceans Space Environment
AtmosphereClimate
NWS & IAEM Partnership in the Digital EraNWS & IAEM Partnership in the Digital Era
“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"
• Provide climate, water, weather forecasts and warnings to protect life and property and enhance the economy
• 76 billion observations
• 1.5 million forecasts
• 50,000 warnings
• Provide climate, water, weather forecasts and warnings to protect life and property and enhance the economy
• 76 billion observations
• 1.5 million forecasts
• 50,000 warnings
A Typical Year Brings: A Typical Year Brings:
– 6 Hurricanes6 Hurricanes
– 1,000 Tornadoes1,000 Tornadoes
– 5,000 Floods5,000 Floods
– 10,000 Violent Thunderstorms10,000 Violent Thunderstorms
– Drought ConditionsDrought Conditions
– 500 Deaths; 5,000 Injuries; 500 Deaths; 5,000 Injuries; $14 Billion in Losses$14 Billion in Losses
The Nation’s Risks:Extreme Climate, Weather, and WaterThe Nation’s Risks:Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water
“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"
Data Assimilation and Modeling
Data Assimilation and Modeling
DisseminationDissemination
Observations
Observations
Products & Services
Products & Services
ActionAction
Information
TechnologyInformation
Technology
Research to
OperationsResearch to
Operations
Research
Research
The Nation’s Risks:Extreme Climate, Weather, and WaterThe Nation’s Risks:Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water
“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"
16
7
3
15
9
6
25
13
7
0
5
10
15
20
25
2003 2004 2005
Hurricanes
Named Storms
Hurricanes
Major Hurricanes
16
7
3
15
9
6
25
13
7
0
5
10
15
20
25
2003 2004 2005
Hurricanes
Named Storms
Hurricanes
Major Hurricanes
2005 in Review (YTD)
The Nation’s Risks:Extreme Climate, Weather, and WaterThe Nation’s Risks:Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water
“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"
Atlantic Tropical Cyclones since 1886
The Nation’s Risks:Extreme Climate, Weather, and WaterThe Nation’s Risks:Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water
“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"
Forecast for
Advisory 23 Issued
BULLETINHURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 23NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL10 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA…EVEN STRONGER…HEADEDFOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST….
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 175 MPHHAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 175 MPH…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES..
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS…LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEETAS HIGH AS 28 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
000WWUS74 KLIX 281550NPWLIX
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005
...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED.......DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED....
HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITYOF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKSUNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTEDCOMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE. HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.
AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.STRUCK.
POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKSPOWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWNAND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED.LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED.
AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE!
Hurricane KatrinaHurricane Katrina
The Nation’s Risks:Extreme Climate, Weather, and WaterThe Nation’s Risks:Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water
2005 in Review (YTD)
“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"
Ph
oto
s b
y A
P
Hurricane KatrinaCostly Human and Societal EffectsHurricane KatrinaCostly Human and Societal Effects
The Nation’s Risks:Extreme Climate, Weather, and WaterThe Nation’s Risks:Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water
2005 in Review (YTD)
“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"
1033
1376
1819
1113
0
500
1000
1500
2000
10 Yr Avg 2003 2004 2005
Tornado Reports
RecordRecord
YTDYTD
The Nation’s Risks:Extreme Climate, Weather, and WaterThe Nation’s Risks:Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water
2005 in Review (YTD)
“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"
Indiana & Kentucky Tornadoes (Nov. 6)
Indiana & Kentucky Tornadoes (Nov. 6)
AP Photos
The Nation’s Risks:Extreme Climate, Weather, and WaterThe Nation’s Risks:Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water
2005 in Review (YTD)
“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"
Cheshire County Floods Oct. 17Cheshire County Floods Oct. 17
The Nation’s Risks:Extreme Climate, Weather, and WaterThe Nation’s Risks:Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water
2005 in Review (YTD)
“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"
The Future Action for AmericaThe Future Action for America
“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"
Community Preparedness & Safety
The Future Action for AmericaThe Future Action for America
“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"
• Van Wert, Ohio is StormReady
– Preparedness in Place
– Threat Detected
– Warning Issued
– Warning Understood
– Action Taken
– LIVES SAVED
• Van Wert, Ohio is StormReady
– Preparedness in Place
– Threat Detected
– Warning Issued
– Warning Understood
– Action Taken
– LIVES SAVED Photo credit: Todd Campbell
The Future Action for AmericaThe Future Action for America
Successful Community Preparedness
“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"
• Know and Anticipate Customer Needs
• Research to Operations
• Balanced Skill Mix
• Infuse Proven Science and Technology
• Grow National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)
•Better Radar
• Know and Anticipate Customer Needs
• Research to Operations
• Balanced Skill Mix
• Infuse Proven Science and Technology
• Grow National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)
•Better Radar
Air Quality Forecasts
Current RadarCurrent Radar Upgraded RadarUpgraded Radar
Gridded Gridded Forecast Forecast DatabaseDatabase
Gridded Gridded Forecast Forecast DatabaseDatabase
TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE
TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE
IFPSIFPS
The Future Action for AmericaThe Future Action for America
Integrating and Improving Skills & Tools
Integrating and Improving Skills & Tools
“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"
Atmosphere
Snow Pack
FreshWater
TerrestrialWeather
Estuaries
Ocean
Air Quality
Soil Moisture
SpaceWeather
Total Environmental AwarenessTotal Environmental Awareness
The Future Action for AmericaThe Future Action for America
“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"
More weather data
Higher resolution forecasts
Visual displays of probability
User-defined products create business opportunities
More weather data
Higher resolution forecasts
Visual displays of probability
User-defined products create business opportunities
Different Products for
Different Customers
Different Products for
Different Customers
The public, emergency managers and city planners use WWW. graphic products for detailed forecasts
The public, emergency managers and city planners use WWW. graphic products for detailed forecasts
Commercial weather companies & emergency managers use grids to generate tailored products
Commercial weather companies & emergency managers use grids to generate tailored products
TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70%.
TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70%.
Radio stations & public read text forecastsRadio stations & public read text forecasts
The Future Action for AmericaThe Future Action for America
Digital Services (NDFD)Digital Services (NDFD)
“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"
Polygon EliminatesFalse Alarm Area
Polygon EliminatesFalse Alarm Area
Polygon Warnings & Demographic DataPolygon Warnings & Demographic Data
The Future Action for AmericaThe Future Action for America
“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"
ResultsResults
Improved Hurricane Track, Improved Hurricane Track, Intensity and Precipitation Intensity and Precipitation
ForecastsForecasts
Improved Tornado and Improved Tornado and Flash Flood ForecastsFlash Flood Forecasts
Improved Aviation, Fire, Marine, Improved Aviation, Fire, Marine, and Space Weather Forecastsand Space Weather Forecasts
Improved Flood, River, and Improved Flood, River, and Ocean PredictionsOcean Predictions
Improved Seasonal Climate Improved Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Energy, Forecasts for Energy,
Agriculture, Etc.Agriculture, Etc.
AdvancesAdvances
ObservationsObservations
Data AssimilationData Assimilation
ModelsModels
Forecasting TechniquesForecasting Techniques
Information TechnologyInformation Technology
Dissemination MethodsDissemination Methods
The Future Action for AmericaThe Future Action for America
“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"
• Develop an organization-wide concept of operations
• Consolidate data-level IT management
• Provide Aviation Products and Services
• Develop an organization-wide concept of operations
• Consolidate data-level IT management
• Provide Aviation Products and Services
Three Strategic InitiativesThree Strategic Initiatives
The Future Action for AmericaThe Future Action for America
“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"
Strategic Initiatives
Develop an Organization-Wide Concept of Operations
Strategic Initiatives
Develop an Organization-Wide Concept of Operations
The Future Action for AmericaThe Future Action for America
“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"
NOAA NWSNOAA NWS END USERSEND USERSPARTNERSPARTNERS
Integrative Communication ModelIntegrative Communication Model
The Future Action for AmericaThe Future Action for America
“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"
Academic/ResearchAcademic/Research
BroadcastersBroadcasters
Private SectorPrivate Sector NOAA NWS
NOAA NWS
Protect Life and Property& Enhance U.S.A EconomyProtect Life and Property& Enhance U.S.A Economy
NWS & IAEM Partnership in the Digital EraNWS & IAEM Partnership in the Digital Era
EmergencyManagersEmergencyManagers