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Gazelle Hunting Meeting #3
Northwest Biotherapeutics, Inc (NWBO)
Product Portfolio: Customized Cancer Therapies
Jocelyn Bao, Product Analyst
Hao Liu, Financial Analyst
Yi (Shirley) Shen, Market Analyst
Mark Verdecia, Scientific Advisor
Haohan Xu, Team Leader
AgendaCompany Overview
Financial Highlights
Company Management
Comparison of Treatment
Valuation, Price, and Costs
Germany Market
Financial Forecast
Investment Thesis
Sensitivity Analysis
Risk Factors
(Supporting Slides)
(Appendix: financial and valuation models)
Company Overview• Northwest Biotherapeutics., is a biotech company that aims at developing more
effective vaccines to treat solid tumor cancers.
• Headquartered in Bethesda, MD
• Products:
DCVax-L, DCVax-Direct, DCVax-Prostate
Investment Thesis- BUY
Current market price: $6.07 as of 4/22/2014
Recommend to buyat $12 or lower
Recommend to sellat $25 or higher
Financial HighlightsMarket Cap: 326.19 M
Shares outstanding: 53.74 M
52wk range: $3.10- $10.64
EPS: -2.00
Debt structure: No outstanding debt
Funding: $36 M
Additional funds available: $5.5 M grant from German government
Monthly burn rate: $2.7 million
Company ManagementLinda F Powers (CEO)
Harvard Law School, JD; Princeton, BA in economics
Holdings: $1.02 million/ 0.3% of NWBO (as of 4/11/2014)
Date Organization Title
6/2011- Present NWBO Chairman/CEO
2001- Present Toucan Capital Corp Managing Director
Present Toucan Partners Managing Member
Present Moffitt Technology Corp Board Member
Present M2gen Board Member
Source: Morningstar, Business Week
Company ManagementDr. Alton Boynton
University of Iowa, PhD in Radiation Biology
Holdings: $50 million/ 5.8 % in stock, 7.6% in options of NWBO (as of 4/11/2014)
Date Organization Title
Present NWBO Chief Scientific Officer
1998- Present NWBO Board Member
Source: Morningstar, Business Week
Comparison of Treatment
DCVax-L Avastin Standard
Of Care
(SOC)
Average
Overall
Survival
(OS)
36
months
15.7
months
14.6
months
DCVax-L vs. Avastin
AVASTIN
• Produced in an engineered cell line.• Generic product, fewer
manufacturing steps.• IP is the engineered product.• Economies of scale decrease
COGS.• Significant patient burden from
treatment course.
DCVAX-L
• Directly made from an individual patient.• Custom product, more
manufacturing steps.
• IP is the manufacturing process.
• Cannot be scaled.
• Lessened patient burden.
• Both are biologics. Expensive technical expertise& high manufacturing costs
Valuation-Price and Cost
Provenge DCVax-L
Technology Platform Immune/DC cellsImmune/DC cells/Patient specific
antigen
Cost of Production Relatively lowerMore extraction process, relatively
higher
Efficiency Relatively low High
Dose Less More
Pricing
$93,000
$120,000
$-
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
Provenge DCVax-L
Price
TreatmentYear 1: 7 dosesYear 2: 3 dosesYear 3: 1 dose
Revenue: front-loaded
Addressable Market
Launch year 2016
Population of EU in 2013
733 M
Population of US in 2013
317 M
Population of Germany in
201382 M
Annual GBM incidence
2/100,000
Market Penetration
From 10% to 50%
300 450
6,820
11,698
18,433 20,822
25,516 28,391 29,431 29,549
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E
# of GBM patients under DCVax-L
# of patients in EU # of patients in US # of patients in Germany
Milestones-DCVax-LEvent Date
Early access program in Germany 03/2014
Enroll patients (outside of trial) in Germany Q2 2014
Phase III results 2015
Approval and commercialization globally 2016-2017
Source: Clinicaltrials.gov, Company press releases
Pre-approval in GermanyApproval Renewable 5 year exemption from the Paul Ehrlich Institute (FDA equivalent)
DCVax-L to patients with any type of glioma brain cancers
7,000 new cases/ year at full price
Eligible for reimbursement from Sickness Funds
Source: Company Press Release
Germany MarketNew patients enrollment
2014: 300, 2015: 450
Partnership: 6 major hospitals
–
5,000,000.0
10,000,000.0
15,000,000.0
20,000,000.0
25,000,000.0
30,000,000.0
35,000,000.0
40,000,000.0
45,000,000.0
50,000,000.0
2014E 2015E
Germany
Revenue
Net Income
Source: Company Press Release
Financial Forecast
–
200,000,000.0
400,000,000.0
600,000,000.0
800,000,000.0
1,000,000,000.0
1,200,000,000.0
1,400,000,000.0
2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E
Revenue Projection (Worldwide)
Revenue
Net Income
Sensitivity Analysis
Risk FactorsRegulatory risks: product approval
Operational risks: market penetration
Financial risks: funding; cash outflow
Third party risks: reimbursement from insurance companies
Industry risks: Roche and Novartis
Q&AThank you!
Any questions?
ReferenceSummer Street Research Partners
http://www.bizjournals.com/washington/news/2011/06/06/northwest-biotherapeutics.html
Clinicaltrials.gov
Crunchbase
Morningstar
Bloomberg
Business week
Company reports and news releases
Rationale
Discount rate
- VC hurdle rate: 30-50%
- A Survey by 300+ biotech stakeholders
80% range: 12%-40% for Mid-stage
P/E multiple
- Based on the median and average.
Risks in biotech
Waxman’s Impact on U.S. Drug Pricing: Hype or hard times ahead?
US Senate NO regulatory power over drugs
Physicians expensive biotech drugs
Generic manufacturers expensive drugs less competition
Financials- Assumption
Financials- Revenue and NI
Valuation- DCF