NT Pastoral Feed Outlook - September 2016 · Web viewNT Pastoral Feed Outlook - September 2016 The purpose of this quarterly outlook is to summarise information relevant to the pastoral

DEPARTMENT OF PRIMARY INDUSTRY AND RESOURCES

NT Pastoral Feed Outlook - September 2016The purpose of this quarterly outlook is to summarise information relevant to the pastoral industry such as current feed supplies, seasonal conditions, the development of drought conditions in central Australia and fire risk.

You can see the entire document and all districts by continuing to scroll through this file. If you are interested in selected sections, you can click on the links below.

Summary of current situation & trends - all districts

Northern Territory Seasonal Outlook – as at September 2016

Individual District Summaries:

Darwin District

Katherine District

Victoria River District

Sturt Plateau District

Roper District

Gulf District

Barkly District

Tennant Creek District

Northern Alice Springs District

Plenty District

Southern Alice Springs District

Summary of current situation & trends - all districts – September 2016KEY Green = low risk Orange = watch Red = high risk

KEY ↑ = increasing trend ↓ = decreasing trend ↔ = steady

Northern Territory Pastoral Districts

Indicator Darwin Katherine VRD Sturt

Plateau Roper Gulf Barkly Tennant Creek

Northern Alice Springs

PlentySouthern Alice Springs

Comments

2015/16 total pasture growth ↓ ↓ ↔ ↔ ↓ ↓ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ Arrows indicate trend

compared to the long-term median.

Current estimated standing biomass ↓ ↓ ↔ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↑ Arrows indicate trend

since previous quarter.

Current seasonal outlook ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑

Arrows indicate the trend since previous quarter and taking into account the forecasted model predictions.

Current fire risk ↑ ↑ ↔ ↔ ↑ ↔ ↑ ↑ ↔ ↔ ↑ Arrows indicate the trend since previous quarter.

For further information about this Outlook, please contact Chris Materne on 8951 8135 or Caroline Pettit on 8999 9014

© Northern Territory Government Page 2 of 17

Northern Territory Seasonal Outlook as at 13 September 2016Sourced from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/ The national outlook for September to November 2016 period indicates that:

Wetter than average across the majority of the NT, especially across the VRD, Sturt Plateau and Barkly districts.

Warmer than normal days and nights more likely across the entire NT.

Climate influences include a weakening negative Indian Ocean Dipole, and tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures which may approach—or briefly exceed—La Niña thresholds

Seasonal Indicators Comments (sourced from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology)

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/Current outlook:

NeutralLa Niña WATCH Level(ENSO status)

La Niño remains neutral and chances of forming in 2016 have reduced. La Niño watch remains.

If La Niña does form, models suggest it will be weak, potentially short-lived, and well below the strength of the significant 2010–12 event.

During La Niña, northern and eastern Australia typically experience above average spring rainfall, with the first rains of the wet season typically arriving earlier than average in northern Australia. At present, warmer than average seas surrounding Australia—which more typically occur during La Niña—mean some La Niña–like impacts may occur even if thresholds are not exceeded.

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-OceanCurrent outlook:

Negative

Negative IOD dominates Australian climateA new surge in strength of the negative IOD, combined with a La Niña –like pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean and seas around Australia, is strongly influencing Australian climate

The weekly IOD index is close to the record values observed in July. Despite this recent re-intensification, climate models continue to suggest the IOD will weaken in the coming months, returning to neutral values before the end of 2016.

During a negative IOD much of eastern Australia typically experiences above average spring rainfall.


Chance of exceeding the median rainfallSeptember - November 2016

Chance of exceeding the median max. temp.September - November 2016

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/

Northern Rainfall Onset

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/rainfall-onset/

Current outlook:

Early

Early rainfall onset likely for the tropical far northThe chance of an early rainfall onset is high for the tropical far north of Australia. This includes the Top End of NT, Cape York Peninsula, the Kimberley and the Gulf Country. This suggests that most of northern tropical Australia will receive the first rains of the wet season earlier than usual.

The chances of an early or late rainfall onset are roughly equal over the tropical inland areas of Western Australia, the Northern Territory, and Queensland.

What is the normal onset date?The northern rainfall onset occurs when enough rainfall has fallen to stimulate plant growth after the dry season. This is defined as the date when at least 50mm has accumulated after 1 September. In general, parts of coastal Queensland and the western Top End receive the first useful rainfall by late October or early November, and this spreads further south and inland over ensuing weeks. The southern inland regions of the Northern Territory and western parts of Western Australia usually have the latest northern rainfall onset, around mid-January. The long-term median is calculated by averaging the onset date for each year from 1960–2009.

Current NT ConditionsAs predicted, early rain has fallen over most of the NT with falls of over 150mm in south eastern parts of the Top End.


NT Pastoral Feed Outlook - September 2016

Darwin DistrictRisks:

- 51% of the district had received below average pasture growth for the 2015/16 wet season, and 71 % currently with below average standing dry matter.

- In a typical wet season pasture growth in the Darwin region is limited by the available soil nitrogen, not water. Therefore a poor wet season may not generally affect the quantity of pasture growth; however it may reduce pasture growth on the flood plains by a lack of runoff.

2015/16 Wet Season

Pasture Growth(% of district)

Below Average51%

Average41%

Above Average8%

<1,000kg/ha0%

>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha

51%>2,000kg/ha

49%

Currently (as at 1st September 2016)

Total Standing Dry Matter

(% of district)

Below Average71%

Average28%

Above Average1%

<1,000kg/ha52%

>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha

47%>3,000kg/ha

1%Fire Risk

(% of district)High96%

Moderate4%

Low0%

Area Burnt(% of district)

47% (since 1st January 2016)18% (2016/17 Total Area Burnt)

2015/16 Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha)(Running Total)

Chance of exceeding Median Pasture Growth

(September – November 2016)

Total 2016/17 Pasture Growth(July – August 2016)

Current EstimatedTotal Standing Dry Matter

© Northern Territory GovernmentPage 5 of

17


Katherine DistrictRisks:

As at the 1st September 2016, 100% of the district had a high fire risk.

2015/16 Wet Season


Below Average31%

Average46%

Above Average23%

<1,000kg/ha0%

>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha

33%>2,000kg/ha

67%



(% of district)

Below Average56%

Average43%

Above Average1%

<1,000kg/ha15%

>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha

83%>3,000kg/ha

2%Fire Risk


Moderate0%

Low0%



2015/16 Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha)

(Running Total)






17


Victoria River DistrictRisks:

- As at the 1st September 2016, 97% of the district had a high fire risk.

2015/16 Wet Season


Below Average17%

Average74%

Above Average9%

<1,000kg/ha16%

>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha

41%>2,000kg/ha

43%



(% of district)

Below Average45%

Average48%

Above Average7%

<1,000kg/ha15%

>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha

70%>3,000kg/ha

14%Fire Risk


Moderate3%

Low0%




(Running Total)






17


Sturt Plateau DistrictRisks:


2015/16 Wet Season


Below Average18%

Average55%

Above Average27%

<1,000kg/ha6%

>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha

37%>2,000kg/ha

57%



(% of district)

Below Average50%

Average50%

Above Average0%

<1,000kg/ha20%

>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha

79%>3,000kg/ha

1%Fire Risk


Moderate4%

Low0%






Total 2016/17 Pasture Growth Current Estimated© Northern Territory Government

Page 8 of 17


(July – August 2016) Total Standing Dry Matter

Roper DistrictRisks:

- 91% of the region had experienced below average pasture growth for the 2015/16 Wet Season, and 85% has below average total standing dry matter.


2015/16 Wet Season


Below Average91%

Average8%

Above Average1%

<1,000kg/ha4%

>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha

66%>2,000kg/ha

30%



(% of district)

Below Average85%

Average15%

Above Average0%

<1,000kg/ha16%

>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha

79%>3,000kg/ha

5%Fire Risk


Moderate0%

Low0%


8.5% (since 1st January 2016)3% (2016/17 Total Area Burnt)


(Running Total)




17




Gulf DistrictRisks:

- 64% of the region has experienced below average pasture growth for the 2015/16 Wet Season, and 81% has below average total standing dry matter.


2015/16 Wet Season


Below Average64%

Average31%

Above Average5%

<1,000kg/ha9%

>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha

62%>2,000kg/ha

29%



(% of district)

Below Average81%

Average18%

Above Average1%

<1,000kg/ha30%

>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha

62%>3,000kg/ha

8%Fire Risk


Moderate1%

Low0%






17


(Running Total) (September – November 2016)



Barkly DistrictRisks:


2015/16 Wet Season


Below Average4%

Average61%

Above Average35%

<500kg/ha10%

>500 & <1,000kg/ha

41%>1,000kg/ha

49%



(% of district)

Below Average12%

Average69%

Above Average19%

<500kg/ha13%

>500 & <1,000kg/ha

56%31%

Fire Risk(% of district)

High90%

Moderate10%

Low0%


<1% (since 1st January 2016)0% (2016/17 Total Area Burnt)




17


(Running Total) (September – November 2016)



Tennant Creek DistrictRisks:

- None to report

2015/16 Season


Below Average0%

Average54%

Above Average46%

<250kg/ha4%

>250 & <500kg/ha

25%>500kg/ha

71%



(% of district)

Below Average19%

Average62%

Above Average19%

<500kg/ha15%

>500 & <1,000kg/ha

23%>1,000kg/ha

62%Fire Risk


Moderate11%

Low0%


<1% (since 1st January 2016)<1% (2016/17 Total Area Burnt)

2015/16 Median Pasture Chance of exceeding Median


17


Growth (kg/ha)(Running Total)

Pasture Growth(September – November 2016)



Northern Alice Springs DistrictRisks:

- None to report

2015/16 Season


Below Average4%

Average83%

Above Average13%

<250kg/ha14%

>250 & <500kg/ha

27%>500kg/ha

59%



(% of district)

Below Average8%

Average77%

Above Average15%

<250kg/ha3%

>250 & <1,000kg/ha

38%>1,000kg/ha

59%Fire Risk


Moderate16%

Low0%


<1% (since 1st January 2016)<1% (2016/17 Total Area Burnt)


17







Plenty DistrictRisks:

- None to report

2015/16 Season


Below Average0%

Average55%

Above Average45%

<250kg/ha24%

>250 & <500kg/ha

23%>500kg/ha

53%



(% of district)

Below Average11%

Average66%

Above Average23%

<250kg/ha11%

>250 & <1,000kg/ha

51%>1,000kg/ha

38%Fire Risk


Moderate27%

Low0%




17







Southern Alice Springs DistrictRisks:

- None to report

2015/16 Season


Below Average0%

Average73%

Above Average27%

<250kg/ha32%

>250 & <500kg/ha

27%>500kg/ha

41%



(% of district)

Below Average12%

Average72%

Above Average16%

<250kg/ha2%

>250 & <1,000kg/ha

55%>1,000kg/ha

43%Fire Risk


Moderate15%

Low1%


<1% (since 1st January 2016)0% (2016/17 Total Area Burnt)


17







Pasture Information

The pasture and fire risk information in this document is derived from AussieGRASS. AussieGRASS is a model that simulates pasture growth and standing biomass using climate data, vegetation mapping, fire history and regional estimates of grazing pressure. The model can be used to track simulated pasture growth and total standing pasture biomass at the landscape scale.

Note that the model does not use stocking rate data for individual properties. Where stock numbers are significantly higher or lower than typical for a district, model estimates of total standing dry matter may be erroneous.

Disclaimer

While all care has been taken to ensure that information contained in this document is true and correct at the time of production, changes in circumstances after the time of distribution may impact on the accuracy of its


17

NT Pastoral Feed Outlook - September 2016information. The Northern Territory of Australia gives no warranty or assurance, and makes no representation as to the accuracy of any information or advice contained herein, or that it is suitable for your intended use.

You should not rely upon information in this document for the purpose of making any business or investment decisions without obtaining independent and/or professional advice in relation to your particular situation.

The Northern Territory of Australia disclaims any liability or responsibility or duty of care towards any person for loss of damage caused by any use of or reliance on this information.


17

Documents

NT Pastoral Feed Outlook - September 2016 · Web viewNT Pastoral Feed Outlook - September 2016 The purpose of this quarterly outlook is to summarise information relevant to the pastoral