Sponsored by the National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs

Convened by the Arctic-CHAMP Science Management Office

NSF-ARCSSFreshwater Integration study

(FWI)Review of Status and

ProgressCharles Vörösmarty

NSF-ARCSS Committee Meeting

Washington, DC2-4 May 2007

Goals Arctic-CHAMP/ASOF/SEARCH Freshwater Initiative (FWI) Are

Fundamentally Synthetic

Q1: Is the Arctic FW Cycle Intensifying?• Quantify Stocks and Fluxes• Document Changes to the Arctic Hydrologic Cycle

Q2: If So, Why?• Understand the Source of the Change: Attribution

Q3: What Are the Implications• Develop Predictive Simulations of Feedbacks to the

Earth and Human Systems

Arctic-CHAMP= Community-wide Hydrologic Analysis and Monitoring Program

ASOF = Int’l Arctic-Sub-Arctic Ocean Flux study

BROAD PORTFOLIO OF PROJECTS

-CHAMP/ASOF/SEARCH-

Broad balance of: (a) time/space scales; (b) disciplines; (c) tools/approaches

FWI PROGRESS THROUGH 2007

• Majority of the 22-funded FWI Projects active -- Near completion of 5th year of effort for the original 18 projects and 4th year for 4 additional projects

• FWI continues to generate tangible products (some high profile), “brand-name”

FWI PROGRESS THROUGH 2007

• >100 peer-reviewed publications giving attribution to support from ARCSS and FWI

• >100 PI and co-I presentations at prominent National and Int’l forums, including the ACIA, ARCSS Synthesis Retreats, AGU Fall and Spring Meetings/Union Session, EGU, ASLO, & many others

• More than 24 Graduate and Undergraduate FWI Students

• Outreach efforts include an AGU Press Conference, interviews on CNN, involvement in a multimedia documentary effort by NY Times / Discovery Channel / Canadian Broadcasting Co., and feature interviews on NPR’s ‘All Things Considered’, to name a few examples

• Well-circumscribed topic and end-point

• Provides a critical system-wide view

• Entrained many perspectives/FWI contributors

• Provides critical raw material upon which to proceed further

Example of FWI Synthesis: Budgeteers Group

Serreze et al., 2006, JGR-Oceans

The Arctic Freshwater Budget

CHANGES AND ATTRIBUTIONWorking Group

White et al. JGR, Biogeosciences (submitted)

Francis et al., (in prep.)

Document basic character of

Feedbacks & implications on major subsystems

Folland et al., IPCC/TAR

Rosenlof, 2003, Science 302:1691-2.

Stratospheric water

New et al. 2000, J. Climate v. 13

Surface VP trend, 1975-95

CM per /DECADE

+0.3

+0.1

+1.0

+3.1

+0.9

+0.8

+2.5

Growing Season Soil Moisture“Strands” of evidencefor an Intensified Water Cycle

ET-Eastern US Forests

Huntington et al. 2003, Ag.For.Met v. 117

Amazon

Costa & Foley 1999, JGR v. 104

CCSM3 Modeled Eurasian River trend over 20th century = 6.7e-3 Sv/century (2.11 km3/yr)

Results in 7% increase in Eurasian river flow over the century

Agrees well with observed trends discussed by Peterson et al. (2002) (12%, 2.05 km3/yr)

Dat

a G

ap

What does “intensification” look like? 2nd derivative of

Model Forecasts to 2100Coherent Tracking of Fresh

Water

Holland et al., 2006

Anticipated FWI Sunset Products & Activities: 2007+

• Many forthcoming individual project articles• JGR-Biogeosciences Special Issue (24 submitted)• AGU-Eos FWI summary• Support water-oriented session at Arctic Forum

• Arctic-CHAMP Capstone Synthesis WS (2008) (int’l as an IPY-affiliated meeting)

• Planning for IPY and beyond (HYCOS, HYDRA, ICARP II)

• Last All-Hands, Bodega Bay CA (cast as workshop on key findings)

• Perhaps another capstone…..