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N Wh t?Now What?
RAPAPORTInternational Diamond Conference 2009
September 10, 2009
A t ti b
1
A presentation by Christopher Ellis, President
Housing Wealth Down 30% since 2006
Household Net Worth Down $11.2 trillion from 2007
6Negative Equity (home worth less than mortgage) 33% of mortgaged homes
(as of June 30, 2009)70.0
Mortgaged Properties with Negative Equity (by State, as of June 30, 2009)
N N ti E it
%
50.0
60.0 Near Negative Equity
Negative Equity
40.0
50.0
30.0
10.0
20.0
‐
NV
AZ
OH
FL MI
CA GA
CO VA
IL NH
MD
TN NB
WI
MI
AK
UT
ID MN
TX SC IA KY NJ
DC DE
KS WA
OR
NC
MA
RI AK OK
NM
CT ND
AL
PA IA HI
NY
MT
7
Wages & Salaries Down 4.7%
Unemployment Rate 9.7%
Unemployment Rate 16.8%
8Extract from The Job Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan published in January 2009 by the Council of Economic Advisers
Sample Retail Bankruptcies*h hOver the Last 12 Months
Stores Prior to Filing
Surviving Stores
Friedman's 650 0ed a s 650 0Whitehall 373 17Shane 26 20Robbins Bros 16 10Robbins Bros. 16 10Ultra 194 174Christian Bernard 15 0
1274 2211274 221
10
*Consensus acted as financial advisor to various stakeholders in each of these companies.
Sales Change vs. Prior Year for Selected Public Specialty Jewelers
40%
20%
30%
0%
10%Zale
Tiffany
‐20%
‐10%Tiffany
Signet
Blue Nile
‐40%
‐30%
Q1 '07
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 '08
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 '09
Q2
11
Monthly Changes in Jewelry Sales from a 2006 Baseline(Mass Merchants and Specialty Stores )(Mass Merchants and Specialty Stores )
12
Monthly Changes in Jewelry Sales from a 2006 Baseline(Specialty Stores Only)(Specialty Stores Only)
13
Consensus l l hRetailer Health Ratings
Healthy Growth Asset Utilization Pricing Power Balance Sheet Risk
Approximately 175 Publicly Traded Retailers
14
Retailer Health Ratings
Asset Utilization
5‐year Adjusted Inventory Turn Turn Volatility Cap Ex Productivity
Rank Company Name Rank Company NameAsset Utilization Top 10 Asset Utilization Bottom 10
Rank Company Name Rank Company Name1 PC Mall Inc. 166 Borders Group Inc.2 Amazon.com 167 Advance Auto Parts Inc.3 Blue Nile 168 Books‐A‐Million Inc.3 684 Charlotte Russe Holdings Corp. 169 O'Reilly Auomotive Inc.5 Costco Wholesale Corp. 170 Autozone Inc.6 BJ's Wholesale Club Inc. 171 Trans World Entertainment Corp.7 Aeropostale Inc. 172 Jos A Bank Clothiers Inc.8 Wet Seal Inc. (The) 173 Tiffany & Co.9 Walmart Stores Inc. 174 Zale Corp.
b S i
15
10 Bebe Stores Inc. 175 West Marine Inc.
Retailer Health Ratings
Pricing Power
Impact to sales of change in gross margin
Rank Company Name Rank Company NamePricing Power Top 10 Pricing Power Bottom 10
Rank Company Name Rank Company Name1 Liberty Media 166 Best Buy Company Inc.2 BJ's Wholesale Club Inc. 167 Haverty Furniture Companies Inc.3 Nordstrom Inc. 168 O'Reilly Auomotive Inc.3 68 y4 Advance Auto Parts Inc. 169 Costco Wholesale Corp.5 Macy's Inc. 170 Amazon.com6 Syms Corp. 171 Petmed Express Inc.7 Shoe Carnival Inc. 172 Blue Nile8 Office Depot Inc. 173 Gamestop Corp.9 Stage Stores Inc. 174 Autonation Inc.
C ll
16
10 PC Mall Inc. 175 Drugstore.com
How to Survive & Thrive: Thoughts for Independents
R i Thi ki• Revise Thinking
• Clean Up the Balance Sheet
19
How to Survive & Thrive: Thoughts for Independents
R i Thi ki• Revise Thinking
• Clean Up the Balance Sheet
• Streamline and Spice Up Offerings
20
How to Survive & Thrive: Thoughts for Independents
R i Thi ki• Revise Thinking
• Clean Up the Balance Sheet
• Streamline and Spice Up Offerings
• Plan/Budget for Sales Levels Below Last Year
21
How to Survive & Thrive: Thoughts for Independents
R i Thi ki• Revise Thinking
• Clean Up the Balance Sheet
• Streamline and Spice Up Offerings
• Plan/Budget for Sales Levels Below Last Year
• Whatever You Have, Spend Less
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