November 2nd, 2016

Background on student growth in the Dulles South Region

Updated status of approved construction

Identify Actions Required of the School Board

What has Changed since the September 2015?

Updated Enrollment Projections

Some thoughts on a way forward

Tools to help get it right

What if we don’t fix it?

Upcoming Events

September 2014: Mercer Middle School (MMS) enrollment

projected at 126% of capacity for School Year (SY)2016-17

March 2015: Dulles District Supervisor Matt Letourneau and

School Board Representative Jeff Morse issue Community Alert

Newsletter to Dulles District concerning overcrowding

September 2015: MMS enrollment updated projection for 2016-

17 is 138% of capacity

May 2016: Boundaries created for Brambleton Middle School:

Decision made to delay significant changes in order to allow

consideration of updated enrollment projections.

September 2016: Actual MMS enrollment for SY 2016-17 is

138% of capacity; 120% with Champe space included. Projection

for SY 2017-18 is 149% capacity; 133% with Champe space

Fall 2017: Brambleton Middle School

Fall 2018: Dulles South Middle School (MS-7)

Fall 2019: Brambleton High School (HS-11)

Fall 2021: Dulles South High School (HS-9)

1. Solve School Year 2017-18 overcrowding

2. Create new Boundaries for MS-7

3. Determine Phase in, Grandfathering, Phase out, and Resource Allocation

Increase Debt Capacity to Build Schools Faster

Reduce Growth

Change Zoning for Housing Density

Direct Road/Highway Construction

8 Modular Classrooms @ Champe were accelerated◦ Opened this School Year SY 2016-17

◦ Provided Champe classrooms for Mercer 8th graders for SY 2016-17 and SY 2017-18

Dulles South Middle School 7 (MS-7) construction accelerated 1 year to open SY 2018-19

Updated Middle School Projections*:◦ Brambleton Middle School: +28 students

◦ Lunsford: -17 students

◦ Mercer: +36 students

◦ Stone Hill: +29 students

*When comparing last year’s 2017 projections, and this year’s 2017 projections in the newly approved boundaries

Know Location of Proposed HS-9 near MS-7

Updated SY 2019-20 High School Projections* :◦ John Champe: - 57

◦ Rock Ridge: + 442 (seniors staying at RRHS)

◦ Freedom: -112

◦ HS-11 (Bram):-278 (no seniors)

*When comparing last year’s CIP projections adjusted under the new boundaries from May 2016, and this year’s CIP 2019 projections

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Capital Improvement Program Estimates By Date

MMS Enrollment Projections

Mercer EnrollmentEstimate (CIP - Dec 2013)

Mercer EnrollmentEstimate (CIP - Dec 2014)

Mercer EnrollmentEstimate (CIP - Dec 2015)

Mercer EnrollmentEstimate (CIP - Oct 2016)

Mercer Capacity

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Capital Improvement Program Estimates By Date

Lunsford Enrollment Projections

Lunsford EnrollmentEstimate (CIP - Dec 2013)

Lunsford EnrollmentEstimate (CIP - Dec 2014)

Lunsford EnrollmentEstimate (CIP -Dec 2015)

Lunsford EnrollmentEstimate (CIP- Oct 2016)

Lunsford Capacity

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Capital Improvement Program Estimates By Date

JCHS Enrollment Projections

Champe EnrollmentEstimate (CIP - Dec 2013)

Champe EnrollmentEstimate (CIP - Dec 2014)

Champe EnrollmentEstimate (CIP - Dec 2015)

Champe EnrollmentEstimate (CIP - Oct 2016)

Champe Capacity

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Capital Improvement Program Estimates By Date

FHS Enrollment Projections

Freedom EnrollmentEstimate (CIP - Dec 2013)

Freedom EnrollmentEstimate (CIP - Dec 2014)

Freedom EnrollmentEstimate (CIP -Dec 2015)

Freedom EnrollmentEstimate (CIP -Oct 2016)

Freedom Capacity

30-Sep-14 30-Sep-15 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-17 30-Sep-18 30-Sep-19Lunsford Enrollment Estimate (CIP - Dec 2013) 1510 1540 1572 1554 1547 1534Lunsford Enrollment Estimate (CIP - Dec 2014) 1470 1520 1534 1483 1448 1449Lunsford Enrollment Estimate (CIP -Dec 2015) 1504 1519 1516 1520 1536Lunsford Enrollment Estimate (CIP- Oct 2016) 1521 1499 1492 1470Lunsford Capacity 1406 1406 1452 1452 1452 1452Mercer Enrollment Estimate (CIP - Dec 2013) 1118 1234 1374 1433 1530 1618Mercer Enrollment Estimate (CIP - Dec 2014) 1255 1462 1662 1873 2036 2230Mercer Enrollment Estimate (CIP - Dec 2015) 1584 1859 2136 2383 2711Mercer Enrollment Estimate (CIP - Oct 2016) 1865 2066 2230 2460

Mercer Capacity 1350 1350 1350 1388 1388 1388Mercer Capacity with Champe space 1550 1554 1388 1388Enrollment (as a % of Capacity) at JML 107% 105% 103% 103% 101%Enrollment (as a % of Capacity) at MMS 117% 138% 149% 161% 177%

Enrollment with Champe space 120% 133% 161% 177%* Seats at Champe revert back to High School seats 30 Sep 18**New Middle School (1350 seats) to open in School Year 2018-19

Dulles South Middle School Projections

30-Sep-14 30-Sep-15 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-17 30-Sep-18 30-Sep-19 30-Sep-20

Freedom Enrollment Estimate (CIP - Dec 2013) 1473 1692 1844 2057 2116 2097

Freedom Enrollment Estimate (CIP - Dec 2014) 1454 1651 1816 2035 2170 2220

Freedom Enrollment Estimate (CIP -Dec 2015) 1616 1854 2084 2150 2181 2188

Freedom Enrollment Estimate (CIP -Oct 2016) 1711 1908 2082 2069 2022

Freedom Capacity 1639 1867 1858 1858 1858 1858 1858

Champe Enrollment Estimate (CIP - Dec 2013) 1173 1291 1429 1583 1813 2023

Champe Enrollment Estimate (CIP - Dec 2014) 1251 1457 1666 1977 2304 2693

Champe Enrollment Estimate (CIP - Dec 2015) 1515 1813 2099 2472 2895 3393

Champe Enrollment Estimate (CIP - Oct 2016) 1753 2092 2379 2646 2853

Champe Capacity 1882 1882 1923 1923 2089 2089 2089

Enrollment (as a % of Capacity) at Freedom 87% 92% 103% 112% 111% 109%

Enrollment (as a % of Capacity) at Champe 80% 91% 109% 114% 127% 137%* Seats in modulars revert back to Champestudents in 30 Sep 18

** New High school (HS-9) to open 30 Sep 21

Dulles South High School Projections

Temporary Equilibrium:

In 2021, Freedom aligns with Lunsford, Champe with Mercer, HS-11with MS-7

Champe overcrowding exceeds 120% capacity SY 2018-19 Champe population projected (capacity includes modulars):

2019: 127% 2020: 137%

Freedom overcrowding is 112% capacity SY 2018-19

Solutions to this long term projection:

1. Place 20 more modulars Champe for 770 students above capacity

2. Move children who will be Dulles South high school students in Sep 2019 to available seats (Rock Ridge 300-500 seats)

3. Create Intermediate Schools for students in grades 6-12 in MS-7, Mercer and Champe footprint until HS-9 opens (6-7, 8-9, 10-12)

4. Accelerate HS-9

5. Balance Champe population with Freedom

Opens SY 2020 with both schools at 124%

To solve the High School issue from 2018-2020,solutions 2 and 3 seem most realistic/feasible

Immediate issue in SY 2017-18: Mercer overcrowding Solutions:

◦ 1. Use Capacity at Brambleton Middle School (150 seats available)

◦ 2. Balance enrollment across DS schools based on capacities

Lunsford balanced with Mercer: SY 2017 enrollment @ both schools would start at 117%

Surge into Lunsford exacerbates Freedom overcrowding in 2018

◦ 3. Use Capacity at Stone Hill (Seats available in 2017: 407)

Return to Mercer for 9th grade or Champe for 10th (if three school solution is implemented)

◦ 4. Hold 6th graders in Elementary Schools (346 Seat Deficit)

◦ 5. Use Modular Classrooms in CIP to help alleviate overcrowding

Locate at Freedom/Champe

Needed for 1 year

Freedom at 112% capacity in 2018; Champe at 114% capacity

Additional costs associated with modulars and student movement

To Solve the MS Issue in 2017, solutions 2, 3, and 5 seem most feasible

New School Boundaries Required in SY 2018-19 with opening of new Dulles South Middle School (MS-7)

All students would have one additional school transition if the intermediate school solution is selected (all Mercer/Champefootprint students will have a minimum of 4 schools in 6 year span)

Students moved out of Mercer moved back?

Potential HS/MS alignment identified, but alignment of middle/high school clusters delayed until new high school is built (SY 2021-22)

Significant capacity at MS through 2020 may provide support to high school seat shortage through 2020.

SY 2018 Middle School Seats Appear To Be A Good Solution For SY 2018- SY 2020 High School Seat Shortage

Seats:

2840

Students (SY 2017-18):

3565

Where do we place 725 + students? (They keep coming!)

1388

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MMS

JML

Champe

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525???

Mercer built for 1180 students; expanded to 1350 in 2013; Champe space from modulars expands Mercer seats to 1588

Projected Enrollment for 2017 (2066):◦ Based on 1180 building chassis: 175% capacity

◦ Based on 1350 school capacity: 153% capacity

◦ Based on 1588 seats with Champe space: 133%

If students are moved, how many?◦ Mercer Population starts at 2066 and grows to 2230 over

SY 2017-18 + summer

◦ Overage could approach 842 by the end of SY 2017-18

◦ Staff estimates shifting 400 students would balance the schools

Status Quo is NOT Possible

When changing school attendance zones, the School Board may consider many factors but recognizes that it may not be reasonably practicable to reconcile each and every component. Any attendance zone adopted by the School Board should be based on the following factors to the greatest extent possible:

Initial Considerations:Facilities (Overcrowding versus Excess Capacity) Proximity (Walkers or Bus Riders: Double Runs/1 hour cap)Community (No fragments or splinter feeds; break would be @ MS only)Demographics (Highly diverse: need to closely watch at risk populations)

Further Considerations:Accessibility (Major construction completed in summer changes model)Stability (Most difficult in young, high growth areas)Cluster Alignment (Complete overhaul if Intermediate Model used)

There is no formula, and there is no “Perfect Solution”,But there are analytic tools that help paint a picture

Shows the impact of zone shifts upon enrollment versus capacity

CapacityCurrent

Enrollment

Current Yearstudents in new zones*

SY 2017-18

SY 2018-19

SY 2019-20

SY 2020-21

SY 2021-22

SY 2022-23

ERM 1260 1514 1353 1366 1290 1251 1247 1238 1192

SHM 1339 1675 776 932 1039 1140 1126 1140 1215

BAM 1350 0 1018 1200 1364 1552 1636 1798 1879

MMS** 1388 1865 1744 2066 2230 2460 2563 2630 2735

JML 1452 1521 1519 1499 1492 1470 1463 1453 1459

MS-7 1350 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 06575 6410 7063 7415 7873 8035 8259 8480

Green Less than capacity

Yellow 100%-110%

Red 110%-125%

Black 125%+

* How many existing students will be in the new boundary of that school?

**Includes 200 seats only for 2017-2018 school year to account for Champe seats

Shows all options and the number ofSchool changes for the students in that zone

Green No changes

Lime One change

Yellow Two changes

Orange Three changes

Red Four changes

8th grade SHMS 9th grade RRHS 10th grade RRHS 11th grade RRHS11th grade HS-911th grade FHS

6th grade Mercer 7th grade SHMS

11th grade HS-99th grade Champe

10th grade Champe

11th grade Champe

8th grade MS-711th grade FHS

9th grade HS-11 10th grade HS-11 11th grade HS-1111th grade HS-911th grade Champe

9th grade FHS 10th grade FHS 11th grade FHS11th grade Champe11th grade HS-9

Zones A, B, and C BMS MS7 HS11 HS9

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021StudentMoves

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1

k 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2

k 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 3

k 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 3

k 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2

k 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0

k 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0

k 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1

k 1 2 3 4 5 6 1

Elementary Change

Middle Change

High Change

Possible ChangeSeniors are grandfathered; k, 6th and 9th graders enter new school in first year

Zones X, Y, and Z BMS MS7 HS11 HS9

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Student Moves

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 0

k 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1

k 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2

k 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 4

k 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 3

k 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1

k 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1

k 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0

k 1 2 3 4 5 6 0

Count the number of moves for an individual student, not a house!

Gymnasium and Cafeteria capacity Transition between classes Science Labs on wheels Resource rooms become classrooms Course Offerings limited MS house model is compromised Student pickup/dropoff challenges Extra staff required without additional office

space Locker issues Modular Classrooms do not address many of

these issues

What to do to resolve middle school overcrowding in 2017?

With the opening of MS-7, will there be a three middle school solution or intermediate school solution?

How many students need to move? Which zones will move? If moved, will those students return for high school,

or will they stay in the cluster? Impact on Teachers? Impact on At Risk Populations? What are the capital/operating budget implications? When do we address the high school realignment

with HS-9

November 3 Thursday 6:30 p.m. John Champe High School PTSO Meeting

November 7 Monday 6:30 p.m. School Administration Building MS-7 Attendance Zones Work Session (No public input)

November 10 Thursday 6:30 p.m. Creighton’s Corner Elementary PTA Meeting

November 14 Monday 6:30 p.m. School Administration Building MS-7 Attendance Zones Public Hearing

November 21 Monday 6:30 p.m. School Administration Building MS-7 Attendance Zones Work Session (No public input)

November 28 Monday 6:30 p.m. School Administration Building MS-7 Attendance Zones Public Hearing

November 29 Tuesday 6:30 p.m. School Administration Building School Board Meeting with MS-7 Attendance Zone plans on information agenda

December 5 Monday 6:30 p.m. School Administration BuildingMS-7 Attendance Zones Public Hearing

December 13 Tuesday 6:30 p.m. School Administration Building School Board Meeting with MS-7 Attendance Zone Adoption

Full School Board: ◦ lcsb@lcps.org

Beth Huck, At Large Member: ◦ Beth.huck@lcps.org

Jill Turgeon, Blue Ridge District:◦ Jill.turgeon@lcps.org

Jeff Morse, Dulles District:◦ Jeff.morse@lcps.org

Speaker sign-up for Public Hearings:◦ (571) 252-1050 by 4:00 p.m. or in person at the

hearing between 6:00 p.m. and 6:25 p.m.

Q&APlease keep the questions respectful and yield the floor when requested.

Also, please refrain from audible interruptions and respect all speakers’ perspectives.