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November 2021 – Market Update
Forward Looking Statements
This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements may include, but are
not limited to, statements about proposed or pending future transactions or strategic plans and other statements about future financial and operating results. Such
statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of The Mosaic Company’s management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. These
risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to: the economic impact and operating impacts of the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic, the potential drop in oil
demand/production and its impact on the availability and price of sulfur, political and economic instability and changes in government policies in Brazil and other
countries in which we have operations; the predictability and volatility of, and customer expectations about, agriculture, fertilizer, raw material, energy and
transportation markets that are subject to competitive and other pressures and economic and credit market conditions; the level of inventories in the distribution
channels for crop nutrients; the effect of future product innovations or development of new technologies on demand for our products; changes in foreign currency and
exchange rates; international trade risks and other risks associated with Mosaic’s international operations and those of joint ventures in which Mosaic participates,
including the performance of the Wa’ad Al Shamal Phosphate Company (also known as MWSPC), the timely development and commencement of operations of
production facilities in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and the future success of current plans for MWSPC and any future changes in those plans; difficulties with
realization of the benefits of our long term natural gas based pricing ammonia supply agreement with CF Industries, Inc., including the risk that the cost savings initially
anticipated from the agreement may not be fully realized over its term or that the price of natural gas or ammonia during the term are at levels at which the pricing is
disadvantageous to Mosaic; customer defaults; the effects of Mosaic’s decisions to exit business operations or locations; changes in government policy; changes in
environmental and other governmental regulation, including expansion of the types and extent of water resources regulated under federal law, carbon taxes or other
greenhouse gas regulation, implementation of numeric water quality standards for the discharge of nutrients into Florida waterways or efforts to reduce the flow of
excess nutrients into the Mississippi River basin, the Gulf of Mexico or elsewhere; further developments in judicial or administrative proceedings, or complaints that
Mosaic’s operations are adversely impacting nearby farms, business operations or properties; difficulties or delays in receiving, increased costs of or challenges to
necessary governmental permits or approvals or increased financial assurance requirements; resolution of global tax audit activity; the effectiveness of Mosaic’s
processes for managing its strategic priorities; adverse weather conditions affecting operations in Central Florida, the Mississippi River basin, the Gulf Coast of the
United States, Canada or Brazil, and including potential hurricanes, excess heat, cold, snow, rainfall or drought; actual costs of various items differing from
management’s current estimates, including, among others, asset retirement, environmental remediation, reclamation or other environmental regulation, Canadian
resources taxes and royalties, or the costs of the MWSPC; reduction of Mosaic’s available cash and liquidity, and increased leverage, due to its use of cash and/or
available debt capacity to fund financial assurance requirements and strategic investments; brine inflows at Mosaic’s potash mines; other accidents and disruptions
involving Mosaic’s operations, including potential mine fires, floods, explosions, seismic events, sinkholes or releases of hazardous or volatile chemicals; and risks
associated with cyber security, including reputational loss; as well as other risks and uncertainties reported from time to time in The Mosaic Company’s reports filed
with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Actual results may differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements.
Rapid run-up of fertilizer prices has pushed affordability index up despite crop prices remaining generally elevated
3
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21
2018=100 Commodity PricesIndexed Daily Close of Front Month Contract
Corn Soy Wheat Palm Oil
Source: CME; MDEX
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Plant Nutrient AffordabilityPlant Nutrient Price Index / Crop Price Index
Affordability Metric Average 2010-present
Sources: Weekly Price Publications, CME, USDA, AAPFCO, Mosaic
Data through October 28, 2021
Less Affordable
More Affordable
As fertilizer prices have continued to rise, the affordability
index is climbing to the levels seen in 2008/09. However,
demand continues to be robust and unlike in 2008 global
channel inventories continue to be thin. Also important to
note is that P&K prices remain well below the peaks of 2008.
Commodity Current Price YTD Y-o-Y
Corn $5.63/bu +16% +40%
Soybean $12.34/bu -6% +17%
Wheat (HRW) $7.90/bu +32% +45%
Palm Oil MYR 5,310/t +34% +63%
Data through October 28, 2021
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Jan '07 Jan '09 Jan '11 Jan '13 Jan '15 Jan '17 Jan '19 Jan '21
$ per tonne Global DAP/MAP Benchmark PricesPublished Spot Prices
DAP, NOLA DAP, India MAP, NOLA MAP, Brazil
Sources: Argus; Green Markets, Fertecon, ICIS
Phosphate: Supply disruptions have accelerated pricing momentum in 2021; still well below 2008 peak
4
Phosphate prices in 2021:
• NOLA DAP + $312/ tonne
• NOLA MAP + $355 / tonne
• Brazil MAP + $385 / tonne
• India DAP + $408 / tonne
*weekly average reported spot pricing for prompt delivery
Data through October 28, 2021
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Jan '07 Jan '09 Jan '11 Jan '13 Jan '15 Jan '17 Jan '19 Jan '21
$ per TonneHigh-Analysis Phosphate Global Net Price
Calculated from Published Weekly Spot Prices
Source: Argus, Mosaic
Phosphate: Industry margins moved higher in Q3
5
Data through October 28, 2021
• Phosphate industry margins –
using the global net price as a
proxy – continued to move higher in
Q3 on strong fertilizer pricing and
broadly flat raw material pricing.
Global net price averages several global price benchmarks for finished phosphates and raw materials. It does not include any
handling, storage, transportation or conversion costs.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Jan '20 Apr '20 Jul '20 Oct '20 Jan '21 Apr '21 Jul '21 Oct '21
$/MMBtu European Natural Gas Futures PricesDutch TTF
Source: NYMEX
Sulphur prices moderated but ammonia prices moved higher on rising gas prices and tight nitrogen supply
6
• Recent hike in European gas prices prompted several
regional nitrogen producers to stop/curtail production in
September/October.
• Strong demand combined with reduced supply is fueling a
further increase in global nitrogen prices in Q4.
• This supply/cost push is expected to feature
through Q1 2022.
• Sulphur price (Q3) settled down $12/LT q-o-q, but is
up $114/LT y-o-y.
• Tampa ammonia settled at $825/MT for November, up
$590/MT y-o-y and up $160/MT from October.
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Jan '07 Jan '09 Jan '11 Jan '13 Jan '15 Jan '17 Jan '19 Jan '21
Sulphur$/LT
Ammonia$/MT
Weekly Raw Materials Pricesc&f Tampa
Ammonia Sulphur
Source: Argus
Data through October 28, 2021 Data through October 28, 2021
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Jan '18 Jul '18 Jan '19 Jul '19 Jan '20 Jul '20 Jan '21 Jul '21
$/MMBtuHenry Hub Natural Gas
Daily Close of Front Month Contract
Source: NYMEX
U.S. drilling activity has thus far been slow to respond to higher prices
7
• Drilling activity, particularly for gas, has been slow to ramp up despite sharply higher prices since July 2020, as
oil/gas producers appear to have shifted their focus from growth to margin.
• We expect the current energy spike to correct lower post winter, which should in turn bring about greater
ammonia supply and lower pricing.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Jan '18 Jul '18 Jan '19 Jul '19 Jan '20 Jul '20 Jan '21 Jul '21
U.S. Gas and Oil Rig Counts (Baker Hughes)
Oil Rigs
Gas Rigs
Source: The American Gas & Oil Reporter
Data through October 28, 2021
2.4
1.6
3.2
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
2019 2020 2021
U.S. Q1-Q3 ImportsMil Tonnes DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP
2021 Q1-Q3 Regional Phosphate Roundup
8Source: Genscape, China Customs, Siaesp, TDM, Mosaic
U.S. imports from
offshore sources
remained elevated
through Q3. Total
imports rebounded
102% or over 1.6mmt
y-o-y.
DAP import arrivals
dropped to <200kt a
month in Aug/Sep.
YTD Indian imports
plummeted 42% or
over 2mmt y-o-y to
2.8mmt – the 2nd
lowest level in a
decade.
China had another
record quarter for
phosphate exports in Q3
as producers tried to
beat more stringent
government export
restrictions. Total YTD
exports were up 46% or
almost 3.2mmt y-o-y
The pace of imports
continued to accelerate
in Q3. Brazilian
phosphate imports during
the first nine months of
the year were up 1.7mmt
or 28% y-o-y.
4.44.9
2.8
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2019 2020 2021
India Q1-Q3 ImportsMil Tonnes DAP
7.96.9
10.0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2019 2020 2021
China Q1-Q3 ExportsMil Tonnes DAP/MAP/TSP
5.56.1
7.8
0
2
4
6
8
10
2019 2020 2021
Brazil Q1-Q3 ImportsMil Tonnes DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP
U.S. phosphate fertilizer imports remained elevated through Q3
9
• Strong demand in the U.S.
attracted products from a
more diversified supply
base.
• Imports through September
were more than double the
same period a year ago.
• Heavy vessel lineup extends
into October (at least).
• Our estimates of channel
inventories continue to point
towards below average
levels, as domestic demand
clearly shifted higher.
• Includes volumes from Morocco for bonded shipment to Canada via the U.S.
• Other origins include Australia, Bulgaria, Egypt, Lebanon, Senegal, Turkey.
Source: Genscape; market publications, Mosaic
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Q12020
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12021
Q2 Q3
Mil TonnesU.S. Offshore Phosphate Imports
(DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP)
Other
Tunisia
Jordan
Mexico
Saudi
Israel
Russia+Lithuania
Morocco
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21E 22F
Mil TonnesGlobal Phosphate Shipments
DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP
Global Phosphate Demand
10
75 - 78
* NPS products included in this analysis are those with a combined N and P2O5 nutrient content of 45 units or greater.
• We revised our forecast of global phosphate shipments to less than 76mmt in 2021, primarily on meaningful downward revisions to our forecasts for China and India (which sets the stage for a lift from pent-up demand in 2022).
• Our preliminary forecast for 2022 calls for flat to moderately higher shipments to a range of 75-78mmt, as a recovery of shipments in China and India is partially offset by flat to slightly lower shipments in some other geographies (with demand expected to be curbed in places due to current higher pricing levels that we expect to persist).
• It is important to note that there remains considerable upside to our base case.
1.2
-0.4
1.5
-0.1
0.2
-2.3
0.6
-1.5
0.8
-4.5
-3.5
-2.5
-1.5
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
2021E 2022F
YoY Changes of Phosphate Shipments(Mil Tonnes DAP/MAP/NPs/TSP)
China
India
Other Asia
Brazil
Other L Amer
Europe+FSU
North America
Global Phosphate Shipment Forecasts by Region
11
DAP/MAP/NPS*/TSP
Mil Tonnes2020 2021E
Low
2022F
High
2022FComments
China 18.8 17.3 18.0 18.5
We expect domestic phosphate shipments to be reduced 8% in 2021 despite strong ag fundamentals throughout most of the year, as robust
export markets limited domestic availability and higher prices resulted in some cautious fill buying. Even with export restrictions taking affect in
Q4 and the need for inventory building, a slowed pace in production will likely limit shipment growth to close out the year. While production is up
12% over last year’s COVID-impacted levels (through September), we expect the pace to slow due to power/coal consumption restrictions and
resulting energy and ammonia availability and price. The reduction in 2021 shipments, however, is expected to lead to pent-up demand that
should boost 2022 shipments.
India 11.5 9.2 9.7 10.2
India phosphate shipments are forecast to drop a dramatic 20% in 2021 due largely to limited supplies (as farmer demand has been relatively
robust). DAP imports are down 42% y-o-y (through September) as India’s MRP and subsidy levels have made it the lowest netback market and
have kept importer economics and domestic production in the red (production is down 18% y-o-y). This has led to a significant decline in stocks
(down 69% y-o-y) and notable pent-up demand that should result in higher 2022 shipments, though we are currently taking a rather cautious
stance on a rebound. The extent of the forecast increase in ‘22 shipments will be heavily dependent on further adjustments to subsidy levels, as
recent ones have thus far not been sufficient, while global prices are expected to remain at current elevated levels through at least H1 2022.
Other Asia/Oceania 10.1 10.3 10.0 10.3
Favorable weather patterns in the region and strong farmer economics have supported demand growth this year, and trade data shows multiple
importing nations (Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, etc.) in the region registering double-digit import growth y-o-y through September. We have
assumed a modest Q4 slowdown in total regional imports from the strong YTD pace, believing that prevailing prices may cause some deferral into
2022. Affordability is expected to curb demand only slightly in 2022, as grower economics remain solid for many regional crops.
Brazil 9.6 11.1 10.8 11.2
We project 2021 phosphate shipments in Brazil to surge to just over 11mmt. Phosphate imports were up a whopping 28.5% y-o-y through Q3 due
to strong demand and lower domestic production. This growth is expected to continue in Q4, but the current price environment is expected to slow
the pace of growth. As we look to 2022, farm economics are expected to remain decent (though not as strong as seen in recent years), and as
such, fertilizer shipments in 2022 are expected to be flat to lower.
North America 9.6 10.8 10.2 10.6Strong ag commodity prices and high planted acreage drove on-farm demand sharply higher in Spring ‘21 and current fertilizer prices have yet to
meaningfully impact Fall demand. As such, we expect 2021 shipments to come in near 10.8 mmt (the highest year on record). However, as
fertilizer prices and other input costs remain elevated going into 2022, there is the potential for shipments to pull back modestly.
Europe and FSU 7.1 7.3 7.1 7.5
The expectation of typical Fall demand in Europe coupled with steady expansion in the FSU have supported marginal y-o-y growth in the region.
Rapid increases of fertilizer prices may lead to some cautious Q4 buying in Europe (though not seen as yet), offsetting some of the strong pace
seen earlier this year, while Russian shipment growth seems more secure given steps taken to ensure supply and stabilize prices. Looking forward
to 2022, we expect generally flat shipments.
Other 9.4 9.7 9.2 9.7We expect demand to post slight gains in 2021 on the back of solid ag fundamentals globally. For 2022, we expect demand to be trimmed due to
affordability concerns, particularly in Africa, while shipments to Latin America (ex-Brazil) and the Middle East should be more resilient.
Total 76.0 75.6 75.0 78.0
Due to the sizable downward revisions made to our China and India 2021 shipment forecasts, total global shipments are now expected to remain
relatively flat vs. 2020. A few production setbacks and rising fertilizer prices have slowed shipments in the latter half of the year, along with India
MRP and subsidy levels curbing their ability to import. Despite this downward revision in shipments, channel inventories remain tight, which
bodes well for shipment expectations in 2022, even at current elevated pricing levels. Our initial view of global 2022 shipments is in the range 75-
78 mmt, with a point estimate in the middle of the range at 76.4mmt representing 1.1% y-o-y growth.
Source: IFA, CRU and Mosaic(regional figures may not sum to total due to rounding)
* NPS products included in this analysis are NP and NPS products with a combined N and P2O5 nutrient content of 45 units or greater.
November 2021
2021E and 2022F Major Phosphate Market Demand Summary
12Source: CRU and Mosaic
Total North America
shipments are expected
to moderate from the
record-high level seen
in 2021 (this assumes
no meaningful
restocking of channel
inventories).
Low DAP supply likely
will drag total India
shipments down by
~2mmt this year.
Extremely low in-country
inventories may force the
government to consider
higher subsidy to secure
supply to meet strong
farmer appetite for DAP.
After 2 consecutive years of
double-digit growth, we
forecast Brazilian
shipments to stay flat or
retreat slightly in 2022 due
to tempered, though still
positive, grower economics.
China’s phosphate
shipments this year are
estimated to decline y-o-y
with a subdued H2. We
expect domestic shipments
to recover in 2022 on solid
farmer economics and some
help from the government to
keep products in the
country.
9.6
10.8
8
9
10
11
20 21E 22F
North AmericaMil Tonnes DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP
18.8
17.3
14
16
18
20
20 21E 22F
ChinaMil Tonnes DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP
11.5
9.2
6
8
10
12
20 21E 22F
IndiaMil Tonnes DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP
9.6
11.1
8
9
10
11
12
20 21E 22F
BrazilMil Tonnes DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP
10.2 – 10.618.0 – 18.5
10.8 – 11.2
9.7 – 10.2
Phosphate S/D: Relatively balanced market suggests stable / elevated 2022 pricing; China+India are the key swing factors
13
Phosphate Supply / Demand Forecast
(Incremental Y-o-Y Change)
Mil Tonnes DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP 2020E 2021F 2022F Comments
Projected Shipment Changes 3.94 -0.44 0.83
Percent Change 5.5% -0.6% 1.1%
Potential Supply Changes 0.29 -0.19 1.12
Base Case China Export Change -0.69 1.38 -1.84Lower exports in Q4 '20 and Q1 '21 due to export restrictions; rebound in domestic
demand in '21 and continued production switch away to PPA-based products.
OCP Ramp-ups and Debottlenecking 1.50 0.05 0.68 Line F commissioning delayed: Assume end-'21 and full capacity end-'22.
MWSPC Ramp-Up -0.11 0.34 0.40 Production recovers after setback in 2020; full capacity in 2022.
GCT M'dilla Commissioning / Ramp-up 0.00 0.09 0.09 Reports of higher downstream output this year, but labor unrest remains an issue.
Turkey/Egypt Greenfields 0.27 0.11 0.07 We assume both projects achieve full utilization in 2021.
Russian Expansions 0.00 0.15 0.15 Incremental volumes from PhosAgro Volkhov.
Other FSU Expansions 0.00 0.00 0.09 Kazphosphate 480kt P2O5 expansion included in Q4 '22 after significant delays.
Other Ramp-Ups / Closures -0.13 0.00 0.00 Includes Eurochem Salitre project in 2023.
Misc. Known Operational Changes -0.55 -2.30 1.50Primarily COVID-19 Curtailments in '20; Misc outages and op. rate changes in '21 -
e.g. in U.S. (MOS and Itafos), India, Brazil and S. Africa.; Rebounds forecast in 2022.
S/D Surplus (+) / Deficit (-) -3.65 0.26 0.29
Source: Mosaic
Flat to lower shipments in multiple geographies in 2022 is more than offset by
moderate demand recovery in China and India.
The 2021 “surplus” depicted above is driven by a small
producer inventory build in China in Q4 2021 after
shortfalls to domestic demand and export restrictions.
Note that the small “surplus” in 2022 could easily be dwarfed
by a larger shipment recovery in China/India, and in any event
does little to rebuild very depleted channel inventories globally
(remember the huge drawdown implied in 2020).
Phosphate: DAP inventory in India has dropped to dangerously low levels – expect an import rebound
14Source: India Department of Fertilizer and CPFIA
Channel Inventory: India inventory figures provide a stark
example of supply tightness:
• Total inventories in late-October are 3.1mmt or 69%
lower y-o-y.
Producer Inventory: China producers inventory figures
remain subdued:
• Inventory as of the end of August of 1.15mmt were 28%
or 0.75mmt lower y-o-y.
• Expect these to recover modestly in Q4 due to the export
restrictions imposed (though we do not expect these to
be burdensome as domestic demand rebounds in
2022 and domestic production faces headwinds).
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20 Sep-20 Mar-21 Sep-21
Mil Tonnes India DAP Inventory
Trade Company
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21
Mil Tonnes
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
China DAP/MAP Producers Inventory
MAP DAP
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21E 22F
Mil Tonnes Brazil Phosphate Imports
DAP TSP MAP/NPS Forecast Range
Brazil Phosphates
15
2020 4% or
43 kt y-o-y
Source: ANDA, Siacesp, Mosaic
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Mil Tonnes Brazil Phosphate Imports(DAP/MAP/TSP/NPS)
2019=6.8mmt 2020=8mmt 2021=10mmt
2021 Q1-Q3
28% or
1.7mmt y-o-y
• The Brazilian fertilizer market is forecast to grow to a record of ~44mmt in 2021. Total Brazilian phosphate imports likely will top
~10.0mmt in 2021.
• Our 2022 expectations have been tempered, as the rapid surge of fertilizer (and other) costs constrains farmer economics.
Domestic production is also likely to rebound (down ~500kt in 2021) and reduce import demand in 2022.
9.5 – 10.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21E 22F
Mil Tonnes India DAP Imports
Actual/Estimate Forecast Range
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Mil Tonnes India DAP Imports
2019=5.6mmt 2020=6.3mmt 2021=4.8mmt
India DAP
16
2021 Q1-Q3
42% or
2.0mmt y-o-y
• DAP imports were down more than 2.0mmt during the first three quarters of the year. We expect import arrivals to rebound to
~2.0mmt in Q4 based on heavy lineups in October and high shipment expectations in November.
• Together with the ~700kt decline in DAP fabrication, total shipments are likely to be down by ~2.0mmt this year.
• We expect DAP imports to rebound in 2022 to meet strong demand, though a more workable (for importers and producers)
subsidy regime is necessary.
4.8 – 5.3
Source: FAI, India Department of Fertilizer, Mosaic
The incentive to produce more DAP is low due to elevated raw material prices / insufficient subsidy
17
-88
-39
44
-46
-131
-98
-2
-130
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
20:20:0:13 10:26:26 12:32:16 DAP
$ per tonne Producer Margin for DAP vs NPKs
$1,160 $1,330
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mil Tonnes
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
India DAP Production
Min/Max Range (16-20) 2021 2020
Acid prices
1,000 Tonnes 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Change Pct Chg
DAP 3,643 2,737 3,472 3,023 2,472 -551 -18.2%
Annual Total 4,826 3,552 4,752 4,120 -
January-September 2021 vs. 2020
India DAP Production • Q4 phosacid contract at $1,330/t P2O5 (+$170 from Q3)
and DAP purchase at $780/t CFR continued to suggest
that the government needs to further increase subsidy
in order to provide the economic incentive to
significantly boost DAP supply.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21E 22F
Mil Tonnes China Phosphate Exports
TSP MAP DAP Forecast Range
China Phosphates
18
• Phosphate exports exceeded earlier expectations in Q3 and came in at over 4.0mmt for the quarter. Export CIQ controls
became effective on Oct 15th, and we expect phosphate exports to drop in Q4.
• Furthermore, strict energy consumption control could weigh on phosphate production in Q4 (potentially 700-800kt reduction).
• Our base case assumes export restrictions to last through Q1 (exports down to ~500kt). In conjunction with lower production
(switching to industrial markets) and a recovery of domestic shipments (to around 3-year averages), we forecast China
exports to range 8.8-9.4mmt in 2022.
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Mil Tonnes China Phosphate Exports
2019=10.1mmt 2020=9.3mmt 2021=10.7mmt
2021 Q1-Q3
46% or
3.16mmt y-o-y
Source: China Customs and Mosaic
8.8 – 9.4
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21E 22F 23F 24F 25F
UtilizationMil TonnesGlobal Phosphate Shipments
DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP
Actual/Estimates Mosaic Forecast Ranges
CRU - July 2021 Capacity Utilization
Phosphate Outlook
19
• We expect industry operating rates to
hold relatively stable around the
current historically-elevated rates
unless additional new projects are
announced/commissioned later in the
forecast period.
Source: IFA, CRU and Mosaic
~2.2% CAGR ~1.7% CAGR
* NPS products included in this analysis are those with a combined N and P2O5 nutrient content of 45 units or greater.
Potash: Prices continued their upward trajectory on tight market conditions in Q3
20
*weekly average reported spot pricing for prompt delivery
Data October 28, 2021
• Cornbelt prices are up over
$446/MT since January 2021.
• The tight market situation in
Brazil pushed prices to near
$800/MT at the end of October.
• Prices in SE Asia rose rapidly in
Q3 to circa $600/MT.
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
Jan '07 Jan '09 Jan '11 Jan '13 Jan '15 Jan '17 Jan '19 Jan '21
$ per tonne
Source: Argus; Green Markets
Published MOP Prices
c&f SE Asia delivered Corn Belt c&f Brazil
Potash prices in 2021:
• SE Asia + $350/ tonne
• Cornbelt + $446 / tonne
• Brazil + $548 / tonne
2021 Q1-Q3 Regional Potash Roundup
21Source: Genscape, China Customs, Siaesp, TDM, Mosaic
Steady vessel lineups
kept U.S. offshore
imports at elevated
levels in Q3. Total
imports jumped 85% or
980kt from a year ago
on very strong demand.
Indian imports were
down 32% or 1.16mmt
y-o-y, as rising prices
internationally have
made India amongst
the lowest netback
markets globally.
7.86.8
6.1
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
2019 2020 2021
China Q1-Q3 ImportsMil Tonnes KCl
3.33.6
2.5
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
2019 2020 2021
India Q1-Q3 ImportsMil Tonnes KCl
China gross MOP
imports remained at
relatively low levels in
Q3 and that brought
total arrivals to almost
6.1mmt, down 11% or
740kt y-o-y from last
year’s already low level.
Brazilian MOP imports
peaked in July but
remained at over
~1.1mmt a month.
Imports Jan-Sep
exceeded 9mmt and
were up 13% or
~1.0mmt y-o-y.
1.41.2
2.1
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2019 2020 2021
U.S. Q1-Q3 ImportsMil Tonnes KCl (offshore)
8.0 8.09.1
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
2019 2020 2021
Brazil Q1-Q3 ImportsMil Tonnes KCl
Indonesia and Malaysia MOP imports rebounded to more healthy levels on strong CPO prices this year
22
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
Jan '10 Jan '12 Jan '14 Jan '16 Jan '18 Jan '20
Ringgits/MT Malaysian Palm OilDaily Close of Front Month Contract
Source: CRB
27%
31%
43%
30%
23%
32%
39%
35%
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mil Tonnes Indonesia + Malaysia MOP Imports(cumulative)
Min/Max Range (16-20) 2021 2020
Source: TDM
Data through October 28, 2021
• MOP imports, as reported by TDM, were up 35% y-o-y in Indonesia (+32%) and Malaysia (+42%) and we expect that to
potentially reach 5.2mmt by the end of this year.
• CPO prices remained volatile at very high levels due to strong vegetable oil and crude oil prices, lower-than-expected
recovery of palm oil production and solid demand.
U.S. MOP imports have slowed to a more ‘normal’ level in Q3
23
• Very large spring demand
and depleted inventories to
start the year has
prompted strong import
demand.
• Imports from Belarus have
yet to recede.
• Q4 imports are expected to
remain in the 450-550kt
range.
Source: Genscape; USDOC, Mosaic
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
Q12020
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12021
Q2 Q3
Mil Tonnes U.S. Offshore MOP Imports
Other
Germany
Israel
Belarus
Russia
• Other includes Jordan
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21E 22F
Mil TonnesKCl Global MOP Shipments
Global Potash Demand
24
Source: IFA, CRU, TFI and Mosaic
69.5 – 72.5
• We maintain our forecast for global MOP shipments in 2021 at ~70mmt, as downward revisions of China and
India were offset by higher forecasts for SE Asia and North America.
• Our preliminary forecast for 2022 calls for ~1.5% growth, primarily driven by our cautious view on recovery in
China and India and continued growth in SE Asia.
0.4 -0.2
0.6
1.2
-0.4
1.0
-0.1
0.9
0.5
-1.5
0.7
-1.6
0.6
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2021E 2022F
YoY Changes of MOP Shipments(Mil Tonnes KCl)
China
India
Indonesia+Malaysia
Latin America
North America
Europe+FSU
Other
Global Potash Shipment Forecasts by Region
25
Muriate of Potash
Mil Tonnes KCl2020 2021E
Low
2022F
High
2022FComments
China 16.4 14.8 15.3 15.7
We revised down China MOP shipments this year to less than 15.0mmt. Lower domestic supply (lower production and producer inventories)
and lower imports (due to the low contract price disincentivizing suppliers to maintain historical volumes) reduced availabil ity, while delayed
crop harvest and autumn planting dampened Fall potash demand. As a result of this latter issue, port offtake has slowed down in recent weeks
and port inventories creeped back up to ~2.6mmt by late-October. For 2022, we forecast MOP imports to rebound (assuming a timely
settlement of a new contract) on a need to refill the in-country pipeline and to satisfy moderate demand growth.
India 5.1 3.6 4.0 4.4
Lack of availability and impractical subsidy/import pricing dragged down potash shipments this year and we have revised our forecast ~450kt
lower. MOP imports likely will drop to ~3.5mmt in 2021, the 2nd lowest level in more than a decade. With inventories dropping to very low levels
(-61% y-o-y) by late-October and large pent-up demand (due to solid farmer economics), we project MOP shipments to rebound by ~0.7mmt
next year (recovering about half of the reduction in ‘21), though adjustments to subsidy (and/or MRP) are likely necessary to achieve this.
Indonesia & Malaysia 4.3 5.2 5.5 5.9CPO prices will likely remain volatile at elevated levels in 2022 on tight supply, lifting already-positive demand prospects. MOP imports in
Indonesia and Malaysia were up 35% y-o-y through August despite COVID-related labor/logistics restrictions at the plantations, and we have
revised our 2021 forecast ~250kt higher. We forecast MOP imports to grow again in 2022 and exceed the previous peak of 5.4mmt (in 2018).
Other Asia 4.9 5.2 4.9 5.1Our 2021 forecast is unchanged. Regional imports are expected to slow down in Q4 (partly due to low seasonal requirements in some
markets) and could remain subdued as buyers awaits new price signals from contract negotiations in China and India over the next few
months. MOP imports are projected to slip slightly in 2022 from record or near-record levels this year as affordability weighs on demand.
W. Europe 5.0 5.2 5.0 5.2Shipments in 2021 have exceeded prior expectations. We forecast potash shipments be just slightly lower in 2022 on healthy farmer balance
sheets, but we are monitoring how elevated farm input costs (nitrogen in particular) could curb potash demand in the region.
E. Europe & FSU 5.9 6.3 6.3 6.5 We continue to expect the market to grow next year in the face of healthy farm economics and favorable support policies.
Brazil 11.3 12.1 11.7 12.1Strong ag fundamentals fueled solid growth in crop nutrient demand this year, with total fertilizer shipments expected to reach a record of
~44mmt, up ~3.5mmt y-o-y Full year MOP imports are forecast to set another record, likely topping 11.7mmt, up almost 7% y-o-y. We took a
conservative view of 2022 prospects, as grower profitability shrinks from the very lofty levels seen the prior two years.
Other L. America 3.0 3.3 3.0 3.2 2021 shipments have been revised slightly higher, but the surge in fertilizer prices is expected to crimp potash demand slightly in 2022.
North America 10.4 11.6 11.0 11.3We revised North American shipments ~300kt higher to ~11.6mmt in 2021 (a record-high) as grower demand continued to surprise us to the
upside. Despite strong imports year-to-date (+85% y-o-y Jan-Sep) and little-improved domestic output, prices continued to rise on supply
concerns, healthy fall demand and low channel inventory. We project shipments to moderate in 2022, assuming no or minimal channel refill.
Other 2.9 3.0 2.8 3.1The combined demand in this market (Oceania, Middle East and Africa) is expected to stay relatively flat in 2022 although the risk profile skews
to the low side of the range due to affordability concerns, most notably in Africa.
Total 69.3 70.2 69.5 72.5We maintain our forecast for global MOP shipments in 2021 at ~70mmt and our preliminary forecast for 2022 shows a range of 69.5-72.5mmt,
with a point estimate in the upper half of the range at 71.3mmt, representing ~1.5% growth. There remains meaningful upside to the forecast if
the recoveries in China and India exceed our cautious expectations.
Source: IFA, CRU and Mosaic(numbers may not sum to total due to rounding)
November 2021
2021E and 2022F Major Potash Market Demand Summary
26Source: CRU and Mosaic
Record-setting
shipments of 11.6mmt
in North America for
2021 are expected to
moderate as higher
prices trim demand
(but without
meaningful channel
stock recovery).
Imports to India will
show a sharp drop in
2021, but pent-up
demand and an empty
channel should result
in at least a moderate
rebound next year.
Additional subsidy will
be key.
After 2 consecutive years
of double-digit growth, we
forecast Brazilian
shipments to stay flat or
retreat slightly in 2022 due
to tempered, though still
positive, grower
economics.
Elevated CPO prices and
improving logistics
underpin strong potash
demand in Malaysia and
Indonesia. Total MOP
imports are forecast to
recover to over 5.0mmt in
2021 and over 5.5mmt in
2022.
10.4
11.6
8
9
10
11
12
20 21E 22F
North AmericaMil Tonnes KCl
11.3
12.1
9
10
11
12
13
20 21E 22F
BrazilMil Tonnes KCl
5.1
3.6
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
20 21E 22F
IndiaMil Tonnes KCl
4.3
5.2
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
20 21E 22F
Malaysia and IndonesiaMil Tonnes KCl
11.0 – 11.3
4.0 – 4.4
11.7 – 12.1
5.5 – 5.9
Potash S/D: Supply could potentially catch up with demand in 2022
27
Projected MOP Supply/Demand Changes
Mil Tonnes KCl 2020 2021F 2022F Comments
Projected Shipment Changes 5.89 0.99 1.06 Moderate demand growth forecast after big upturn in 2020.
Percent Change 9.3% 1.4% 1.5%
Projected Supply Changes 3.95 0.98 1.94
SQM Production Adjustments 0.22 0.10 0.08 Incremental increases.
K+S Bethune Ramp-Up 0.31 0.08 0.13
Eurochem Usolskiy Ramp-Up 1.08 0.03 0.05
Eurochem Volgakaliy Ramp-Up 0.04 0.11 0.10
Uralkali Production / Ramp-Ups 0.20 0.10 0.00
Belaruskali Petrikovsky 0.03 0.28 0.35
Net Changes from Others 0.64 0.03 0.09
Other Existing Utilization 1.44 0.25 1.15
S/D Surplus (+) / Deficit (-) -1.94 -0.01 0.88
Source: Mosaic
NTR+MOS estimated operational changes
Ramp-up of 1.5mmt mine (first trial MOP production in August '20; official commissioning in August
'21). BPC sanctions could result in lower exports from Belarus, but this is not assumed in our base
case.
Minor changes at ICL (Spain and Israel), Jordan, China, Europe, Laos etc.
Phase 1.1 capacity: 0.4mmt ramping from '22; Phase 2 capacity 1.0mmt startup in 2025.
Pond production to slowly ramp up (Phase I & II).
Limited test production in '20-'21; Phase 1 capacity of 2.3mmt achieved in '25.
Recovery of S-2; Incremental increases from existing sites and S-3 expansion. Ust-Yayvinsky startup
in 2024.
The potash market remains very tight in
2021, with deferred demand in China/India
necessary to balance the market.
A small “surplus” in 2022 is expected to develop in H2, allowing inventories
to be modestly rebuilt. However, a more pronounced recovery of
India/China shipments (to 2020 levels) would flip the script to a ~1mmt
“deficit”. Also note that we do not forecast a reduction in Belarus exports in
2022 in our base case, despite the sanctions, which may prove optimistic.
Potash: Low inventories, particularly in India, should encourage early settlement of new contracts
28
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mil Tonnes
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
China Weekly MOP Port Inventory
Min/Max Range (16-20) 2021 2020 2019
Source: India Department of Fertilizer, Mosaic China
Port Inventory: After dropping to ~2.3mmt in July, China
MOP port inventories recovered to roughly 2.7mmt in mid-
October, down 26% or ~1.0mmt y-o-y.
Channel Inventory: total inventories in India fell below
800kt in late-October, down 61% or over 1.2mmt y-o-y.
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20 Sep-20 Mar-21 Sep-21
Mil Tonnes India MOP Inventory
Trade Company
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21E 22F
Mil Tonnes Brazil MOP Imports
Actual/Estimate Forecast Range
• The Brazilian fertilizer market is forecast to grow to a record of ~44mmt in 2021. Total Brazilian MOP imports are likely to hit
~11.7mmt this year.
• Our 2022 expectations have been tempered, as the rapid surge of fertilizer (and other) costs constrains farmer economics,
resulting in flat to lower imports.
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Mil Tonnes Brazil MOP Imports
2019=10.2mmt 2020=10.9mmt 2021=11.7mmt
Brazil Potash
29
Source: ANDA, Siacep and Mosaic
2021 Q1-Q3
13% or
1.0mmt y-o-y
11.3 – 11.7
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21E 22F
Mil Tonnes India MOP Imports
Actual/Estimate Forecast Range
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Mil Tonnes India MOP Imports
2019=4.1mmt 2020=5.1mmt 2021=3.5mmt
India Potash
30
• We expect MOP imports in India to plummet 32% to 3.5mmt for calendar year 2021, the lowest level since 2013. Many global
suppliers have been reluctant to place scarce tonnes under the low prevailing contract price.
• Imports are forecast to rebound to more ‘normal’ levels assuming that increases in CFR prices are offset by subsidy and MRP
increases. The risk profile skews to the low side given the uncertainty in subsidy development (in the face of elevated nitrogen
and phosphate prices too).
Source: FAI, India Department of Fertilizer, Mosaic
2021 Q1-Q3
32% or
1.16mmt y-o-y 4.0 – 4.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21E 22F
Mil Tonnes China MOP Imports
Actual/Estimate Forecast Range
China Potash
31
• MOP imports dropped in Q3 as expected and total (gross) imports are forecast to decline to ~7.6mmt this year.
• Our China team reported growing concerns of less attractive fertilizer affordability and delayed harvest – that could negatively
impact potash demand in Q4.
• For 2022, we expect MOP imports to rebound, assuming timely settlement of new contract, on a need to refill the in-country
pipeline and to satisfy moderate demand growth.
Source: China Customs and Mosaic
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Mil Tonnes China MOP Imports
2019=9.1mmt 2020=8.8mmt 2021=7.6mmt
2021 Q1-Q3
11% or
740kt y-o-y
7.8 – 8.3
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21E 22F 23F 24F 25F
UtilizationMil Tonnes KCl Global MOP Shipments
Actual/Estimates Mosaic Forecast Ranges
CRU - September 2021 Capacity Utilization
Potash Outlook: New supply expected to slightly trail demand, leading to higher industry operating rates
32
• We have made limited changes to our
medium-term view.
• We continued to expect range-bound
global capacity utilization (at generally
elevated levels) over the next few years
based on steady demand growth and
continued ramp-up of existing
brownfield and greenfield projects.
Source: IFA, CRU and Mosaic
~2.6% CAGR ~2.0% CAGR
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%
22%
23%
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
425
450
475
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
PercentMil Tonnes World Less China Grain and Oilseed Stocks
Stocks Percent of Use
Source: USDA
Strong economic rebound from COVID-low and tight ag fundamentals
33
• Global G&O balance sheets are snug – S:U ratio dropping to 15.9% in 2020/21 (lowest since 2007/08).
• USDA’s forecast calls for the stocks-to-use ratio remaining low in 2021/22, even in the face of a projected ~3% increase in
global harvest.
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
% World G&O Demand vs. World Real GDP(y-o-y % change)
World GDP Growth (%) World G&O Demand Growth (%)
Source: USDA; World Bank; IMF Oct 2021 Forecast (World GDP)
Corn275%
Soybean-1%
Wheat29%
Barley85%
Pork -6%
Beef11%
Poultry-4%
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
-3.0 2.0 7.0 12.0 17.0 22.0
Chg (%)
Chg (mil tonnes)
China Ag Commodity ImportsSeptember 2021 YTD Y-o-Y Changes
356%414%
438%301%
323%
318%
297%
284%
275%
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mil Tonnes China Corn Imports(cumulative)
10-yr Range 2020 2021
2015: 4.7
2016: 3.2
2017: 2.8
2018: 3.5
2019: 4.8
2020: 11.3
China’s appetite across a wide range of ag commodities continues to drive ag markets
34
• Since May, China’s monthly corn imports have averaged ~3.3mmt. Prior to 2020, the highest monthly import volume was
1.16 (reached in April of 2016). This pushes YTD imports to an eye-popping record of 24.9mmt (+275% y-o-y).
• China’s soybean import growth has slowed slightly in 2021 (vs 2020), but still very strong by historical standards.
• Growth in major meat imports (pork + beef + poultry) have also slowed relative to 2020, as China has worked to rebuild its
hog inventory and higher retail prices have stymied domestic consumption. That said, beef imports remain up 11% y-o-y.
• We expect Chinese imports of ag commodities to continue to be elevated through 2022.
Source: China Customs
y-o-y change
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
Jan '15 Jan '16 Jan '17 Jan '18 Jan '19 Jan '20 Jan '21
Mil Gal/Day
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Mil GallonsU.S. Weekly Fuel Ethanol
Stocks Production 2017-19 Avg
Source: EIA
20/21 U.S. corn demand supported by recovering ethanol grind and elevated export demand; 21/22 to remain strong
35
• Ethanol production has recently recovered to near its pre-COVID level.
• USDA projects ethanol grind to rebound to 5.03 bbu in 20/21 and 5.20 bbu in 21/22.
• U.S. corn use reached a record high of 14.8 bbu in 20/21. We see strong export demand (upside risk to latest USDA
expectation) to continue into the 21/22 crop year and could keep corn use at a similar level next year.
• U.S. corn stocks-to-use ratio is estimated to have dropped to 8.3% in 2020/21 (revised higher), but still tight relative to recent
history (2013/14-2019/20 averaged 13.4%). USDA currently projects a S:U ratio of 10.1% for 21/22 on their higher
production estimate in the October WASDE.
5.3 5.4 5.9 5.6 5.6
5.6 5.4 4.9 5.0 5.2
1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
2.4 2.1 1.8 2.8 2.5
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21E 21/22F
Bil BuU.S. Corn Use
Feed & Residual Ethanol Other FSI Exports
Source: USDA
Data through October 22, 2021
U.S. farm economics are still constructive despite rapid run-up of all costs
36
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21F 22F
Bil $ U.S. Farm Sector Net Cash Income
Gov't Payments "Market"
Source: USDA & Mosaic (22F) Source: University of Illinois, USDA, CBOT, Mosaic
• 21/22 farmer economics have been supported by tight commodity markets and ongoing CFAP payments.
• 22/23 farmer economics are expected to be down relative to 21/22, but still relatively healthy.
• Costs are expected to be up across the board.
• Government payments are expected to decline relative to the past couple years that have been boosted by CFAP
and market facilitation payments (offsets for retaliatory tariff impacts).
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021E
$ per acre Estimated Corn Farmer Returns in Central Illinois (high-productivity farm)
Note: Central Illinois farmer returns are for illustration only and calculated after estimated land rent. Historical data based on published information from University of Illinois and
Farm Business Farm Management (FBFM). 2021E and 2022F returns are based on CBOT nearby and Dec ‘22 corn future contracts and fertilizer cost assumptions by Mosaic.
We also assume certain percentage increases in other inputs (i.e. seed, chemicals, energy) in the 2022 forecast.
Additional breathing room for stocks expected in 2021/22, but still rather tight markets
37
Source: USDA (October WASDE)
10-year average = average 2010/11 – 2019/20
Corn10-year
Average18/19 19/20 20/21E 21/22F
Planted Acreage
(mil acres)91.4 88.9 89.7 90.8 93.3
Yield (bu/acre) 161.5 176.4 167.4 171.4 176.5
Use (bil bu) 13.5 14.3 14.0 14.8 14.8
Exports (bil bu) 1.8 2.1 1.8 2.8 2.5
Carryout (bil bu) 1.6 2.2 1.9 1.2 1.5
Stocks-to-use 11.8% 15.5% 13.7% 8.3% 10.1%
7.4%
8.3%
10.1%
2.6%
5.7%
7.3%24.2%
28.5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
WheatCorn & Soy
Crop Year
Stocks-to-Use Ratio
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Source: USDA
Soybeans10-year
Average18/19 19/20 20/21E 21/22F
Planted Acreage
(mil acres)81.1 89.2 76.1 83.1 87.2
Yield (bu/acre) 46.4 50.6 47.4 51.0 51.5
Use (bil bu) 3.7 4.0 4.0 4.5 4.4
Exports (bil bu) 1.7 1.8 1.7 2.3 2.1
Carryout (mil bu) 318 909 525 256 320
Stocks-to-use 8.3% 22.9% 13.3% 5.7% 7.3%
▪ Malaysia and Indonesia total palm oil stocks have lagged behind 2020 for much of the year despite the marginal production gains.
▪ Demand (especially exports) has been healthy and recent policy changes further improve export prospects.
• India removed restrictions on imports of refined palm oils and reduced import taxes.
• Indonesia cutting the ceiling rate for CPO export levies (on July 2) led to an increase in July exports and dramatic y-o-y increases in August.
• Indonesian domestic demand has also picked up y-o-y - more than offsetting 2020 declines in food and biodiesel uses. While
lagging 2020, domestic demand in Malaysia for crude palm oil has been increasing throughout 2021, reaching 2020 levels in
September.
Positive demand developments overshadow potential supply recovery in the palm oil market
38
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mil Tonnes Malaysia & Indonesia Total Palm Oil Stocks
(Crude Oil and Processed Oil)
2020 2021Sources: MPOB, IPOA
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mil Tonnes Malaysia & Indonesia Total Palm Oil Exports
(Crude Oil and Processed Oil)
2020 2021
Coffee and sugar prices are soaring on supply concerns
39
Data through October 28, 2021
• Sugar prices rebound from a 12-year low to a 4-year high. Prices are supported by weather-related supply concerns.
• Brazil production concerns (e.g. due to frost damage) have resulted in a surging coffee market.
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
Jan '17 Jan '18 Jan '19 Jan '20 Jan '21
$/cwt SugarDaily Close of Front Month Contract
Source: NYMEX
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
Jan '17 Jan '18 Jan '19 Jan '20 Jan '21
$/cwt CoffeeDaily Close of Front Month Contract
Source: NYMEX