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1 ROLE OF GREAT BELT IN THE NORTH-SOUTH TRAFFIC
The traffic function of the Great Belt Fixed Link (GBFL) is
mainly the connection between East-
ern and Western Denmark.
At the same time however, it provides an important international
connection between Eastern
Denmark/the Scandinavian peninsula and Germany/the continent
(North-South traffic),
Therefore the Great Belt had to be considered in the
FTC-study
(1) To be able to capture the total market of the North-South
traffic
(2) To be able to measure the existing market share of this
connection and the possible
shift to the FBFL when in operation
Indeed, the results of the FTC-study indicate that a
considerable share of the traffic jump
caused by the FBFL is related to shifts from Great Belt to FBFL
(around 55 % of the 1,3 million
cars/year).
Although the route via the GBFL is 140 kilometers longer
compared to the route via Rdby-
Puttgarden for most traffic flows, it is a very attractive
route:
Considering waiting times and times for access and egress for
the ferries the travel times
are approximately the same between the route via GB and via the
Rdby Puttgarden fer-
ry-line
However the passage via the Rdby-Puttgarden ferry-line is
considerably more expensive
(around 65 per car) than the toll on Great Belt (33 per car)
even if taking additional fuel
costs on the GB route into consideration.
And due to rising fares on the ferry compared to stable toll
rates on GBFL the attractivity of the
ferry-line is decreasing. This is the main reason for the
stagnating car transports on the ferry-
line and vice versa is one reason for the strong growth of the
GBFL transport figures.
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2 TREATMENT OF GREAT BELT IN THE FTC-STUDY
From different sources in Germany (Bundesverkehrswegeplanung,
tourism surveys and others)
and Denmark (national transport model, passenger surveys) a
reliable database of the traffic
between Germany and Scandinavia could be created for the study,
including main traffic flows
(origins and destinations) and modal split. To be able to
capture the traffic totals in the North-
South traffic reliable road and railway counts and ferry
statistics (not only for Rdby-
Puttgarden but for all other relevant lines) have been used.
Among that for GBFL the traffic per
vehicle category is reported regularly and reliably on monthly
basis.
Samples of plate counts in summer indicate a share of 5 to 6 %
of foreign cars on GBFL. For-
eigners use the GBFL mainly on North-South traffic. In winter
the share is lower, 2 to 3 %, which
is logical as in winter the price differences between GBFL (no
seasonal or daytime variation of
toll rates) and the ferry line Rdby-Puttgarden (much higher
prices in peak periods) is lower than
in summer.
Assuming a similar number of Danish cars using GBFL in
north-south traffic instead of domestic
traffic between east and west Denmark, in total a share of 8 %
of the GBFL traffic can be as-
signed to international resp. north-south traffic on GB. This is
a quite reliable figure for 2011.
In 2014/15 this share should be higher due to a growing price
gap between GBFL (stable toll
rates and decreasing fuel costs for longer distance) and
Rdby-Puttgarden (raising prices).
The numbers for the GB transports in the north-south traffic
(713.000 cars in 2011) have been
added to the transports on the relevant ferry lines (around 2.9
million cars per year in 2011) to
get the totals of north-south traffic. At the same time it has
been used in the same way as the
ferry statistics: to calibrate the route choice model for the
forecasting.
3 EFFECTS OF THE FBFL
With FBFL some advantages of the GBFL compared to the existing
Rdby-Puttgarden connec-
tion will cease to exist: the FBFL toll will stay roughly the
same as the ferry line but the FBFL will
be approximately one hour faster. That means it is also one hour
faster than the GB route for
most relations. Therefore a big share of traffic will divert
from GBFL to FBFL, which is partly a
re-diversion due to the fact that, today, raising prices on the
Rdby-Puttgarden ferry line is in-
creasingly pushing traffic from the Rdby-Puttgarden connection
to the GB route.
