Not so fast…2014 Congressional - Democracy Corps · District Representative 2012 Presidential margin 2012 Congressional margin ... NE-2 Lee Terry Romney +7.2 +2.4 ... Ohio-6 (R)

Not so fast…2014 Congressional

Battleground very competitive

First survey suggests Republicans just as vulnerable as 2012 cycle and Democrats can make net gains

June 20, 2013

Methodology and Overview

2

This presentation is based on a unique survey of 1,250 likely 2014 voters in the most competitive Congressional seats across the country, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Democracy Corps. The “battleground” is comprised of a total of 80 districts:

• 750 interviews conducted in 49 Republican-held districts • Tier 1 (375 interviews): the 24 most competitive Republican districts • Tier 2 (375 interviews): the 25 next most competitive “reach” Republican

districts

• 500 interviews conducted in 31 most competitive Democratic-held districts This survey was conducted from June 6-12, 2013 using a list of 2010 voters and new registrants. Some questions were asked only in Democratic-held or Republican-held seats. For questions asked of all respondents, the margin of error = +/- 2.77% at 95% confidence. For questions asked just in Republican districts, the margin of error = +/- 3.58% at 95% confidence. For questions asked in just Democratic districts, the margin of error = +/- 4.38% at 95% confidence.

The Battleground: background

3

The Democracy Corps Congressional battleground research is one of a kind. Nobody else conducts a poll only in the most competitive Democratic and Republican seats, using the actual names of the incumbents in each district.

This survey is a very conservative estimate of likely 2014 voters – with respondents selected off of a voter list who voted in the 2010 off-year election or new registrants with a high intention to vote in 2014. Only 9 percent of these voters are under 30; only 5 percent are Latino and 5 percent African American. We took account of population growth in our weighting, but these are 2010 voters.

We include comparisons to results from past battleground surveys from prior election cycles – when one party saw their majority reduced or increased. We compare results for the most competitive seats but note that the districts are not the same.

There is every reason to believe that Republicans will have a reduced majority after 2014.

Battleground Tier 1 -- the 24 most competitive Republican districts

4

District Representative 2012 Presidential margin 2012 Congressional margin

CA-10 Jeff Denham Obama +3.6 +7.1

CA-21 David Valadao Obama +11.1 +17.9

CA-31 Gary Miller Obama +16.6 +10.5

CO-6 Mike Coffman Obama +5.1 +3.6

FL-10 Dan Webster Romney +7.6 +3.5

FL-13 Bill Young Obama +1.5 +15.2

FL-2 Steve Southerland Romney +5.9 +5.5

IA-3 Tom Latham Obama +4.3 +8.7

IL-13 Rodney Davis Romney +0.3 +0.4

IN-2 Jackie Walorski Romney +14.0 +1.4

KY-6 Andy Barr Romney +13.6 +3.9

MI-1 Dan Benishek Romney +8.3 +0.7

MI-7 Tim Walberg Romney +3.1 +10.3

MN-2 John Kline Obama +0.1 +8.2

NE-2 Lee Terry Romney +7.2 +2.4

NV-3 Joe Heck Obama +0.8 +7.6

NY-11 Michael Grimm Obama +4.4 +6.6

NY-19 Chris Gibson Obama +6.3 +6.9

NY-23 Tom Reed Romney +1.2 +3.9

OH-14 David Joyce Romney +3.3 +15.8

OH-7 Bob Gibbs Romney +9.5 +13.3

PA-8 Mike Fitzpatrick Romney +0.1 +13.3

WI-7 Sean Duffy Romney +3.1 +12.3

WV-2 OPEN (Capito) Romney +22.0 +39.6

Battleground Tier 2 -- the 25 next most competitive Republican districts

5


AR-1 Rick Crawford Romney +24.6 +17.4

AR-2 Tim Griffin Romney +11.8 +15.7

CA-25 Buck McKeon Romney +1.8 +11.2

FL-16 Vern Buchanan Romney +9.3 +7.2

IA-4 Steve King Romney +8.2 +8.6

IN-8 Larry Bucshon Romney +18.8 +10.3

MI-11 Kerry Bentivolio Romney +5.4 +6.4

MI-3 Justin Amash Romney +7.4 +8.6

MI-8 Mike Rogers Romney +3.2 +21.3

MN-3 Erik Paulsen Obama +0.8 +16.3

MT-AL Steve Daines Romney +13.7 +10.3

NC-9 Robert Pittenger Romney +13.4 +6.1

NJ-2 Frank LoBiondo Obama +8.2 +17.9

NJ-3 Jon Runyan Obama +4.6 +8.9

NJ-5 Scott Garrett Romney +3.0 +13.1

NM-2 Stevan Pearce Romney +6.8 +18.2

NY-2 Peter King Obama +4.4 +17.5

OH-16 Jim Renacci Romney +8.2 +4.5

OH-6 Bill Johnson Romney +12.5 +6.7

PA-12 Keith Rothfus Romney +16.9 +3.6

PA-6 Jim Gerlach Romney +2.5 +13.9

PA-7 Pat Meehan Romney +1.8 +18.9

VA-2 Scott Rigell Obama +1.5 +7.6

WA-3 Jaime Herrera Beutler Romney +1.6 +20.2

WI-8 Reid Ribble Romney +4.5 +11.9

Battleground: the 31 Democratic districts

6


AZ-1 Ann Kirkpatrick Romney +2.5 +3.3 AZ-2 Ron Barber Romney +1.6 +0.2 AZ-9 Kyrsten Sinema Obama +4.5 +3.1 CA-24 Lois Capps Obama +11.0 +9.6 CA-26 Julia Brownley Obama +10.3 +4.0 CA-3 John Garamendi Obama +11.2 +7.8 CA-36 Raul Ruiz Obama +3.2 +3.9 CA-52 Scott Peters Obama +6.4 +1.1 CA-7 Ami Bera Obama +3.9 +1.6 CT-5 Elizabeth Esty Obama +8.2 +3.0 FL-18 Patrick Murphy Romney +4.2 +0.6 FL-26 Joe Garcia Obama +6.7 +10.6 GA-12 John Barrow Romney +11.8 +7.4 IL-10 Brad Schneider Obama +16.4 +1.0 IL-12 Bill Enyart Obama +1.5 +8.7 IL-17 Cheri Bustos Obama +16.9 +6.6 MA-6 John Tierney Obama +10.9 +1.0 MN-7 Collin Peterson Romney +9.7 +25.5 MN-8 Rick Nolan Obama +5.5 +8.9 NC-7 Mike McIntyre Romney +19.2 +0.2 NH-1 Carol Shea-Porter Obama +1.6 +3.7 NH-2 Ann McLane Kuster Obama +9.6 +5.1 NV-4 Steven Horsford Obama +10.7 +7.9 NY-1 Tim Bishop Obama +0.5 +4.3 NY-18 Sean Maloney Obama +4.3 +3.4 NY-21 Bill Owens Obama +6.2 +2.2 NY-24 Dan Maffei Obama +16.0 +4.6 TX-23 Pete Gallego Romney +2.7 +4.8 UT-4 Jim Matheson Romney +37.0 +1.2 WA-1 Suzan DelBene Obama +10.8 +20.3 WV-3 Nick Rahall Romney +32.2 +7.9

Upscale Rural

New Hampshire-2 (D)

New York-19 (R)

Upscale Exurban

Michican-7 (R)

New York-23 (R)

Downscale Rural

Arkansas-1 (R)

Iowa-4 (R)

Michigan-1 (R)

Minnesota-7 (D)

Minnesota-8 (D)

Montana-AL (R)

New York-21 (D)

North Carolina-7 (D)

Ohio-6 (R)

West Virginia-2 (R)

West Virginia-3 (D)

Wisconsin-7 (R)

Downscale

Exurban

Arizona-1 (D)

Illinois-13 (R)

Indiana-2 (R)

Indiana-8 (R)

New Mexico-2 (R)

Wisconsin-8 (R)

Upscale Urban

Nebraska-2 (R)

New York-11 (R)

Virginia-2 (R)

Rural Suburban Upscale Suburban

Arizona-2 (D)

California-24 (D)

California-25 (R)

California-26 (D)

California-7 (D)

Colorado-6 (R)

Connecticut-5 (D)

Florida-16 (R)

Florida-26 (D)

Illinois-10 (D)

Massachusetts-6 (D)

Michigan-8 (R)

Michigan-11 (R)

Minnesota-2 (R)

Minnesota-3 (R)

Nevada-3 (R)

New Hampshire-1 (D)

New Jersey-3 (R)

New Jersey-5 (R)

New York-1 (D)

New York-18 (D)

New York-2 (R)

Ohio-14 (R)

Downscale Suburban

Arkansas-2 (R)

California-3 (D)

California-21 (R)

California-31 (R)

California-36 (D)

Florida-13 (R)

Florida-18 (D)

New Jersey-2 (R)

Ohio-7 (R)

Ohio-16 (R)

Upscale Metro

Arizona-9 (D)

California-10 (R)

California-52 (D)

Florida-10 (R)

Iowa-3 (R)

Michigan-3 (R)

New York-24 (D)

North Carolina-9 (R)

Washington-3 (R)

Downscale Metro

Florida-2 (R)

Georgia-12 (D)

Illinois-12 (D)

Illinois-17 (D)

Kentucky-6 (R)

Texas-23 (D)

Metro Urban Exurban Rural

Battleground Districts: by type

Suburban Upscale Suburban

Pennsylvania-6 (R)

Pennsylvania-7 (R)

Pennsylvania-8 (R)

Pennsylvania-12 (R)

Utah-4 (D)

Washington-1 (D)

*Note: Some new district typologies were unavailable due to redistricting. Such districts were estimated based on the majority of the makeup of the old district.

Downscale Urban

Nevada-4 (D)

Key findings

8

Why are Republicans at risk? 6 reasons:

Tea Party

Republican Party brand

Gridlock and fight with Obama

Obsession with repealing health care

For the rich and won’t tax

Seniors

Key findings

9

Why Democrats will mostly hold their seats:

Concentration of Democratic lead in suburban and Obama seats

Seniors

Disdain for Republicans and Tea Party

Health care

Job approval of incumbents in most difficult areas

The Republican Battleground

44 42

54 47

Democrat Republican Democrat Republican

Democrat Republican

I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for Congress in 2014, if the election for U.S. Congress were

held today, would you be voting for – the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?

June 2013 November 2012

Actual Vote

+10 +5

Republicans have lost real ground in their battleground seats, despite a 2014 likely electorate

*Note: Incumbent names were inserted with party identification. Generic challengers were inserted as “The Democratic Candidate.” 2012 results are from actual votes in these districts in the November election. 11

Republican-held districts

42 42 41 47

43 50

Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Republican

Democrat Republican

Republican

districts

+5

With Republican incumbents at only 43 percent in most competitive seats, Republicans will face real losses

*Note: Incumbent names were inserted with party identification. Generic challengers were inserted as “The Democratic Candida te.” 12

+1 +9

Republican

Tier 1 Republican

Tier 2


held today, would you be voting for – the Democratic candidate or Republican (HOUSE INCUMBENT)?

42 48

44 42 47

42 46 47

Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Republican

Democrat Republican



+5 +2 +6 +5

Republicans at same margin at this point as in 2007 and Democrats in 2009 when both lost big

July 2009

40 Democratic seats

(Dems lost 36 seats – 90%)

March 2011

50 Republican seats

(Reps lost 13 seats – 26%)

June 2013

49 Republican seats

June 2007

40 Republican seats


13

45 47 46 42 43 43 45 43


Democrat Republican



+2 +1 +4 +1

And in most competitive seats, GOP members more vulnerable than past cycles when lost at least 44% of seats

July 2009

Dem Tier 1: 20 districts


March 2011

Rep Tier 1: 25 districts


June 2013


June 2007



Tier 1: most competitive seats

14

32

8 15 11 12 8

45

28 38

33 33 30

35 33 31 32 32 33

42 46 44 45 47 47

Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25)

Barack

Obama

Why? Republican brand in trouble and trails Democrats in these new Republican battleground seats

Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold.

15

Mean: 49.8

Net: +3

Mean: 45.5

Net: -6

Mean: 40.7

Net: -17

Mean: 42.8

Net: -12

Mean: 42.9

Net: -14

Republican

Congress

Democratic

Party

Democrats in

Congress

Republican

Party

John

Boehner

Mean: 40.2

Net: -18

+17 +5 +3

17 21 20 15 14 18 16 11

39 38 43

38 37 35 37 33

31 35 32 31 28 36

34 32

44 46 42 44 43 49 47 45


Democratic

Party

GOP problem same as last cycle when lost 18 seats – despite shift to new more Republican battleground


16

Mean: 44.7

Net: -8

Mean: 45.5

Net: -6

Mean: 42.8

Net: -12

Mean: 43.1

Net: -14

Mean: 43.7

Net: -10

Mean: 47.7

Net: +1

Republican

Party

July 2012 Oct 2012 June 2013 July 2012 Oct 2012 June 2013

*Note: Trend data compares total Republican-held districts in each poll. Does not consist of exactly the same make-up of districts.

Mean: 45.9

Net: -5

Mean: 46.0

Net: -6

Mar 2011 Mar 2011

2012 Election 2012 Election

16 17 15 15

44 45

38 40

15 18 15 16

29 29 25

30

27 25

38

29

App Disapp DK App Disapp DK App Disapp DK App Disapp DK

Strongly approve Strongly disapprove Don't know

Approval rating of GOP incumbents now lower than at like points in prior cycles when one party faced real losses

Do you approve or disapprove of the way (HOUSE INCUMBENT) is handling his/her job as a member

of the U.S. Congress?

17

+16 +16 +13 +10

July 2009

40 Democratic seats


March 2011

50 Republican seats


June 2013

49 Republican seats

June 2007

40 Republican seats


16 15 12

45

39 40

18 15 16

29 25

30

26

36 31

App Disapp DK App Disapp DK App Disapp DK


Republicans in most competitive seats weaker than predecessors in prior cycles

Do you approve or disapprove of the way (HOUSE INCUMBENT) is handling his/her job as a member

of the U.S. Congress?

18

+16 +10 +14

July 2009



March 2011



June 2013



32 32 34

43 45 46

27 28 25

43 40 38

Can't re-elect Will re-elect Can't re-elect Will re-elect Can't re-elect Will re-elect

“Can’t re-elect” incumbent number higher than 2010 cycle when lost many seats

19

Now I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.

I CAN'T vote to reelect (HOUSE INCUMBENT) in 2014 because we need new people that will fix Washington and get things done.

I WILL vote to reelect (HOUSE INCUMBENT) in 2014 because (he/she) is doing a good job and addressing issues that are important to us.

Even +5 +8

July 2009

40 Democratic seats


March 2011

50 Republican seats


June 2013

49 Republican seats

33 32 36

46 45 48

24 26 23

41 40 37

Can't re-elect Will re-elect Can't re-elect Will re-elect Can't re-elect Will re-elect

And in most competitive seats, significantly more say can’t re-elect their GOP member

20


I CAN'T vote to reelect (HOUSE INCUMBENT) in 2014 because we need new people that will fix Washington and get things done.

I WILL vote to reelect (HOUSE INCUMBENT) in 2014 because (he/she) is doing a good job and addressing issues that are important to us.

+5 +11

July 2009



March 2011



June 2013


+5


42 41 43 40

43 44 45 48


Democrat Republican



+1 +2 +3 +8

Seniors a big story in GOP battleground; pulling back from GOP in major way

Seniors White seniors 50 and over White 50 and

over

21

55 52

72

55

33 36

20

36


Democrat Republican



Minority Unmarried women Youth (under 30) Rising American

Electorate

+22 +52 +19 +16

Work to do among Rising American Electorate

22

25 26 34

19 19 16

75 74 72 68 67

56

Total Independents Seniors Rising AmericanElectorate

White non-college

Unmarriedwomen

Very closely

How closely have you been following news about politics and Congress -- very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or

not closely at all?

Critical target: unmarried women vote favor Democrats, but question of turnout

23

19 17

3 4

15

2 4

37

Loyalist Supporter Conditional Vulnerable Winnable In Reach Peripheral Unreachable

18 20

3 5

11

4 5

34

Loyalist Supporter Conditional Vulnerable Winnable In Reach Peripheral Unreachable

Democrat

Republican

Not Democrat

Not Republican

Democrats have more winnable voters in these Republican districts

24

45 47 47 46


Democrat Republican

I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election

for Congress this November, if the election for U.S.

Congress were held today, would you be voting for – the

Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?

+2 +1

Last year, battle of messages and attacks yielded no shift in GOP seats

Now, let me ask you again, I know it's a long way off, but

thinking about the election for Congress this November, if

the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would

you be voting for – the Democratic candidate or the

Republican candidate?

July 2012

Republican Districts

25

50 49 44 43


Democrat Republican

+6 +6

And no shift in most competitive seats

Tier 1

I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election

for Congress this November, if the election for U.S.

Congress were held today, would you be voting for – the

Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?

Now, let me ask you again, I know it's a long way off, but

thinking about the election for Congress this November, if

the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would

you be voting for – the Democratic candidate or the

Republican candidate?

July 2012


26

42 44 41

44 43 40

50 45


Democrat Republican

Now let me ask you again, I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for Congress in 2014, if the election

for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for – the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?

Re-vote after hearing

balanced debate Initial vote

+1 +1

But now, Democrats move ahead in most competitive and to even in the rest – suggesting potential for bigger gains

Republican Tier 1

+4 +9

Republican Tier 2



27

The Republican Congress defined

48

15

23

11

Yes, Republicans Yes, split Yes, Democrats No

Do you know which political party controls the U.S. Congress? Do you believe it is the Democrats or the Republicans?

The voters think Republicans are in control in the US Congress

Republican-held seats

29

63%

21 17 15

33 30 28

38 38 41

45 45 50


July 2012

Big turn against Tea Party – despite in more Republican districts


30

Mean: 41.8

Net: -12

Mean: 41.0

Net: -15

Mean: 38.1

Net: -22

June 2013 Oct 2012

*Note: Trend data compares total Republican-held districts in each poll. Does not consist of exactly the same make-up of districts.

The Tea Party

2012

Election

By 2 to 1 voters in most competitive seats think Democrats better than GOP on putting progress ahead of partisanship

20 20 20

38 43

33

14 13

15

29 25

32

Dem better Rep better Dem better Rep better Dem better Rep better

Dem much better Rep much better

Now I am going to ask you something different. I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall , you

think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with this issue.

+9

31

+18 +1

Putting progress ahead of partisanship


Republican Tier 1 Republican Tier 2

47 53 55

54 59

64

38 31 25

41 34

30

Work with Obama Stop Obama Work with Obama Stop Obama Work with Obama Stop Obama

Dramatic rise in voters in GOP districts wanting House incumbent to work with President Obama

32


I want (HOUSE INCUMBENT) to try and work with President Obama to address our country's problems.

I want (HOUSE INCUMBENT) to try to stop President Obama from advancing his agenda for the country.

+13 +25 +34

July 2012


Oct. 2012


June 2013


2012

Election

49 57 56

54

63 69

37 27 22

40

30 26

Work with Obama Stop Obama Work with Obama Stop Obama Work with Obama Stop Obama

In most competitive seats, more than two-thirds say work with Obama, 56 percent strongly

33


I want (HOUSE INCUMBENT) to try and work with President Obama to address our country's problems.

I want (HOUSE INCUMBENT) to try to stop President Obama from advancing his agenda for the country.

+14 +33 +43

July 2012

Republican Tier 1

Oct. 2012

Republican Tier 1

June 2013

Republican Tier 1

Tier 1: most competitive seats 2012 Election

44 44

52 50

32 31

39 39

Ask wealthy/addressproblems and deficit

No tax increase Ask wealthy/middle classand deficit

No tax increase

Voters show no interest in Republican who says won’t vote for tax increases – in these GOP seats

34


I want to vote for a Member of Congress who will ask the wealthiest to pay a greater share of taxes to address our problems and reduce the deficit.

I agree with (HOUSE INCUMBENT) who says (he/she) won't vote for any tax increase.

+13 +11


I want to vote for a Member of Congress who will ask the wealthiest to pay a greater share of taxes to invest in the middle class and reduce the deficit.

I agree with (HOUSE INCUMBENT) who says (he/she) won't vote for any tax increase.

35

33

32

31

28

26

25

21

21

18

16

Side with the richest and big corporations and protecting theirbreaks and low taxes

Protect the rich and big corporations ahead of middle class

So uncompromising that Washington is gridlocked

Only focused on blocking Obama's agenda

Impose their religious views on issues like contraception andeducation

Support budget cuts that are slowing the economy and hurtingjob growth

Prioritize cutting Medicare, Social Security and Medicaid

Support budget cuts that hurt the most vulnerable

Block opportunities for minorities, women and gays

Consumed with Tea Party agenda

Have an agenda that would take us back to the 1950s

Republicans defined by protecting rich and anti-Obama gridlock

35

Now let me read you a list of concerns some people have about the Republican control of Congress. After I read them, please tell me which THREE of the following are the biggest concerns in your own mind about the Republican control of Congress.

Percent saying biggest concern (top 3) Republican-held seats

31 34

48 49

26 25

31 30


GOP out of touch on Planned Parenthood in these Republican battleground seats


36

Mean: 56.3

Net: +19

Mean: 54.4

Net: +17

Planned Parenthood

Total Republican districts Women

38

32

30

30

29

21

18

17

Big increases in government spending and higher deficits

Total government control with no checks and balances

Government takeover of the health care system

Unwilling to reform Social Security and Medicare to savethem for future generations

Would take away Second Amendment right to bear arms

Extreme environment agenda keeps from developingAmerican energy and jobs

Don't stand up for middle class Americans

Promote abortion rights that undermine the family

Biggest concerns about Democrats? All about spending and total government control

37

Now let me read you a list of concerns some people have about Democrats if they were to control Congress. After I read them, please tell me which THREE of the following are the biggest concerns in your own mind about Democrats if they were to control Congre ss.

Percent saying biggest concern (top 3) Republican-held seats

The attacks and vulnerabilities

34

35

35

36

66

60

70

70

Very serious doubts Serious doubts

Best attacks on Republicans: not standing up for women, gone Washington and Medicare

Now I'm going to read you some things that some people might say about (REPUBLICAN HOUSE INCUMBENT).

After I read each one, please tell me whether this raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real

doubts in your own mind about (REPUBLICAN HOUSE INCUMBENT).

(MEDICARE W/ BREAKS) (HOUSE INCUMBENT) voted to end

Medicare as we know it, turning it into a voucher program, massively

cutting health care benefits for seniors, forcing them to pay 64 hundred

dollars more a year for their health care, while giving tax breaks to

millionaires, big oil, and companies that ship jobs overseas.

(WOMEN) (HOUSE INCUMBENT) voted to eliminate the Violence

Against Women Act, which protects women against domestic violence,

sexual assault and rape, and fought to prevent the bill from even getting a

vote.

(PERKS) (HOUSE INCUMBENT) voted to protect taxpayer funded perks

for travel, meals and chauffeurs for Members of Congress, refusing to

scale back their own budgets when Americans are scaling back theirs.

39

(BACKGROUND CHECKS) (HOUSE INCUMBENT) would not even allow

a vote in the House to require background checks to purchase a gun even

after the families of the victims of the Sandy Hook Elementary shooting

appealed to (him/her).

27

28

30

31

57

55

61

65


Next tier of attacks, but food stamps and low-wage worker biggest impact on vote in model

Now I'm going to read you some things that some people might say about (REPUBLICAN HOUSE INCUMBENT).

After I read each one, please tell me whether this raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real

doubts in your own mind about (REPUBLICAN HOUSE INCUMBENT).

(LOW-WAGE) (HOUSE INCUMBENT) voted against increasing the

minimum wage from seven to ten dollars an hour and voted to eliminate

overtime pay for working families, many of whom rely on overtime pay to

make ends meet, cutting a worker's paycheck by up to 10 percent and

pushing more working families into poverty.

(STUDENT LOANS) (HOUSE INCUMBENT) voted to double the interest

rate on student loans, forcing middle class families and students already

burdened with debt to pay another 5 thousand dollars more in out-of-

pocket costs for their college education.

(FOOD STAMPS) (HOUSE INCUMBENT) voted to cut food stamps by 20

billion dollars, leaving nearly 50 million Americans, including over 16 million

children, faced with the risk of going hungry each day.

40

(PAYCHECK FAIRNESS) (HOUSE INCUMBENT) voted against equal

pay for equal work, allowing employers to pay men a higher salary than

women based solely on gender and not job performance.

31

31

36

36

39

58

59

61

67

60

Very serious doubts Somewhat serious doubts

Republican attacks weaker in these Republican districts

Now I'm going to read you some things that some people might say about the Democrats in Congress. After I read

each statement, please tell me whether this raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts

in your own mind about the Democrats in Congress.

(OBAMACARE) Democrats in Congress supported President Obama's trillion

dollar government takeover of our health care system, which will raise the cost

of health insurance premiums by as much as 30 percent, increase taxes, and

force small businesses to drop plans entirely or lay off workers, all while making

it harder for people to see their doctors and get access to quality care.

(KEYSTONE/ENERGY) Democrats in Congress pursued a radical

environmental agenda, opposing efforts to increase energy production by

blocking the Keystone pipeline, attacking coal, and restricting access to

offshore drilling, driving up energy and gas prices which are at their highest in

150 years.

(SPENDING) Democrats in Congress repeatedly voted for higher spending that

have devastated our economy, including Obama's failed 1 trillion dollar stimulus

plan, which hasn't created jobs, increased our debt, and will cost our children

their economic future.

(MEDICARE) Democrats in Congress supported President Obama's plan that

raided 716 billion dollars from Medicare, changing the program forever, and

used that money to pay for Obamacare, the massive government takeover of

the healthcare system, jeopardizing coverage for seniors who have paid into

Medicare for years.

41

(ANTI-BUSINESS) Democrats in Congress repeatedly voted for an anti-

business, job killing agenda. Obamacare is filled with new red tape, mandates

and higher costs on small businesses, and a new energy tax and environmental

regulations would drive up costs for manufacturers.

The health care battle

It’s simple: voters prefer Democrats by big margin on who should handle health care reform in most competitive seats

26 23 28

43 44 42

23 23 23

41 38

43

Dems Reps Dems Reps Dems Reps

Dems much better Reps much better

Now I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Democrats or the

Republicans would do a better job with this issue.

+2 +1 +6

43

Tier 1

Republican

Republican

Districts

Tier 2

Republican

Health care reform

43 39

50 48

36 43

42 48

Implement Repeal Implement Repeal

Voters in most competitive districts strongly in favor of implementation over repeal, with stronger intensity

44


We should implement and improve the health care reform law.

We should repeal the health care reform law.

+8 Even

Republican Tier 1 Republican Tier 2

45 48

54 56

37 36

40 40

Implement/ Improve Repeal Implement/ Fix Repeal

And voters in Democratic battleground support implementing and improving/fixing the health care reform – few for repeal

45




+14 +16

We should implement and fix the health care reform law.


Democratic-held districts

50 53

54 62

28 22

31 28


Unmarried women and Rising American Electorate strongly favor implementing law

46




+23

Unmarried women RAE

+34 Republican-held districts

52 51

55 54

38 39

41 42


Seniors and swing voters across all Republican districts favor implementation over repeal

47


+14

Seniors White Seniors



+12


28

29

30

31

56

60

61

65


Democrats’ strongest attacks focus on specific benefits of law and services for women

Now I'm going to read you a few statements that some people might say about the efforts of (HOUSE INCUMBENT/the Republican

Congress) to repeal the health care law. After I read each statement, please tell me whether this raises very serious doubts, serious

doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about (HOUSE INCUMBENT/the Republican Congress ).*

(MOVE ON/NO SOLUTIONS) (HOUSE INCUMBENT/the Republican

Congress) has voted to repeal the health care law 37 times, wasting time and

50 million dollars from taxpayers, refusing to offer any solutions. Instead of

focusing on the economy and getting people back to work, (HOUSE

INCUMBENT/the Republican Congress) wants to refight the same old battles.

(NEW COVERAGE) (HOUSE INCUMBENT/the Republican Congress) voted to

deny health care coverage, for the first time for many, to over 30 million low-

wage workers and vulnerable families earning less than 16,000 dollars per

year, including many female-headed families, children, and people with

disabilities.

(WOMEN) (HOUSE INCUMBENT/the Republican Congress) voted to put

insurance companies back in charge of your health care, allowing them to once

again discriminate against women by charging women higher rates than men,

not cover mammograms, screenings for cervical cancer, birth control and other

services.

(SPECIFIC COVERAGE) (HOUSE INCUMBENT/the Republican Congress)

voted to put insurance companies back in charge of your health care, allowing

them to once again be able to deny coverage to people with pre-existing

conditions, drop your coverage if you become sick, and allow insurance

companies to impose lifetime limits.

48 *Note: In Republican districts, the incumbent name was inserted. In Democratic districts, “the Republican Congress” was inserted.

34 37 35 31

66 70 68 61

Specific coverage Women Specific coverage Women

Very serious doubts

And attacks raise serious doubts among key groups




49 *Note: In Republican districts, the incumbent name was inserted. In Democratic districts, “the Republican Congress” was inserted.

Seniors Suburban

45 44 43 34

79 81 71 70

Specific coverage Women New coverage Move on/no solutions

Very serious doubts

Especially among unmarried women; very serious doubts reach near 50%




50

Unmarried women

*Note: In Republican districts, the incumbent name was inserted. In Democratic districts, “the Republican Congress” was inserted.

30

33

35

37

60

62

60

65


Best attacks on Democrats – the IRS scandal and bigger deficits

(INCREASE DEFICIT) (HOUSE INCUMBENT/Democrats in Congress) have

already run up record deficits. Obamacare would bankrupt the country with an

estimated one point seven-five trillion dollars more in deficit spending, which will

be paid for by cutting Medicare for seniors, and raising taxes on individuals and

small businesses.

(RAISE COSTS) (HOUSE INCUMBENT/Democrats in Congress) voted for the

new health care law which will raise premiums by as much as 30 percent for

working people who already have health insurance and will force companies to

drastically scale back health benefits for their employees.

(TAXES) (HOUSE INCUMBENT/Democrats in Congress) voted for the new

health care law which contains at least 20 new taxes totaling 500 billion dollars,

including new taxes on insurance companies, which will be passed on to

consumers.

(IRS) (HOUSE INCUMBENT/Democrats in Congress) voted to put the IRS in

charge of your health care, giving the same agency that is currently under

investigation for targeting ordinary Americans for their political beliefs the power

to collect penalties, taxes and fines related to the health care law.

51

Now I'm going to read you a few statements about the health care reform law that some people might say about (HOUSE

INCUMBENT/Democrats in Congress). After I read each statement, please tell me whether this raises very serious doubts, seriou s

doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about (HOUSE INCUMBENT/Democrats in Congress ).*

*Note: In Democratic districts, the incumbent name was inserted. In Republican districts, “Democrats in Congress” was inserted.

After attacks on health care reform, GOP gets to just even on best approach, but still loses in most competitive seats

34 36 33 38

41 44

39

46

36 34 38

30

43 40

47

39

Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep

Dem approach much more Rep approach much more

Overall, do you find yourself wanting to go with the Democrats' or Republicans' approach on health care reform?

+2 +8 +4 +7

52


Republican Tier 1 Republican Tier 2 Democratic-held

districts

The vote shifts sharply against Republicans

42 44 41

44 43 40

50 45


Democrat Republican





+1 +1

Vote moves in both Tier 1 and Tier 2 districts

Republican Tier 1

+4 +9

Republican Tier 2



54

9

16 13 13 13 12 11 11 11 11

Shift toward Democrats

Biggest shifters: independents, white seniors, unmarried women

55



Republican seats

The Democratic Battleground

44 47

44 40 42

38

45 47



held today, would you be voting for – Democrat (HOUSE INCUMBENT) or the Republican candidate?

Rural

23% of Democratic

battleground

Suburban

49% of Democratic

battleground

Metro

21% of Democratic

battleground

+9 +1 +7

Democrats have big lead in suburban seats that form half of the Democratic battleground

Democratic seats

57

+2

Total

Democratic

battleground

46 40 39

51


Democrat Republican

Districts Obama won

71% of Democratic battleground

+7 +11

And ahead in districts that went for Obama – over 70% of the battleground

58

Democratic seats

Districts Romney won

29% of Democratic battleground



47 44 46 44 43 45

42 45


Democrat Republican

+4 +4 +1 +1

Democrats strong among older voters in their seats

Seniors White seniors 50 and over White 50 and

over

Democratic seats

59



Democratic incumbents popular in suburban, rural districts

16 21

15

36

45

28

18 18 23

27 29

31

36

26

41

Approve Disapprove DK Approve Disapprove DK Approve Disapprove DK


Do you approve or disapprove of the way (HOUSE INCUMBENT) is handling his/her job as a member of the U.S.

Congress?

+3 +9

60

Rural Suburban Metro

+16

34

7 19

8 15 7

47

26

39 28

37 28

38 36 32 35 33 35

45 51 47 50 46 50


Barack

Obama

Massive party advantage in Democratic battleground


61

Mean: 49.1

Net: +2

Mean: 45.7

Net: -8

Mean: 39.0

Net: -22

Mean: 39.5

Net: -22

Mean: 44.8

Net: -9

Republican

Congress

Democratic

Party

Democrats in

Congress

Republican

Party

John

Boehner

Mean: 37.9

Net: -25

+21 +11 +9

12

25

40

51


Tea Party is wildly unpopular


62

Mean: 37.4

Net: -26

The Tea Party

Health care reform in Democratic districts

Base of support higher in suburban and Obama districts

27 30 29

42 46 47

23 20 19

39 37

35

Dems Reps Dems Reps Dems Reps

Dems much better Reps much better

Now I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Democrats or the

Republicans would do a better job with this issue.

+9 +12

64

Suburban Districts Democratic districts

won by Obama

Health care reform

+3

Total Democratic

districts

45 48

54 56

37 36

40 40

Implement/ Improve Repeal Implement/ Fix Repeal

Voters in these districts support implementing and improving/fixing the health care reform by sizeable margin

65




+14 +16



Democratic Districts

35

36

45

66

67

64

Much more favorable Somewhat more favorable

The positive case for health care reform: women, improving the law, and bringing down costs for middle class families

Now I am going to read you some things Democrats who support the health care reform law say about how the law will help the

country. After I read each one, please tell me if it makes you feel much more favorable toward the health care reform law, so mewhat

more favorable toward the health care reform law, neither favorable nor unfavorable, or less favorable toward the health care reform

law.

(WOMEN) We can't go back to insurance companies calling the shots on

women's health. The health care reform law makes sure insurance

companies can't charge women higher premiums solely based on gender,

and covers important preventive health care, such as mammograms,

screenings for cervical cancer and other services.

(IMPROVE LAW) The Affordable Care Act makes good changes that we

should keep. It cut what seniors spend on drugs, barred insurance

companies from using pre-existing conditions, and helps young people

stay on insurance. But there is a lot we need to fix. We need to make

sure it is not a burden on small businesses, does not give insurance

companies an excuse to raise rates, and we need to take even more

steps to cut health care costs.

(AFFORDABLE FOR MIDDLE CLASS) Health care costs are an

enormous burden on the middle class. The health care law eliminates

lifetime limits on your care and premiums are already going down in some

states, while patients are able to keep their current plans and doctors. We

need to continue to work to lower costs, lower health care debt, and make

sure coverage is affordable for middle class families.

66

29

30

31

33

55

55

53

54


And reduced costs and moral arguments for the law strong drivers in regressions




law.

(MEDICAID EXPANSION) Governors from both parties are getting behind the

health care reform law because it expands access to affordable health

coverage to millions of uninsured children, people with disabilities and the

working poor earning less than 16,000 dollars per year, and it will pump millions

of federal dollars into their state, spurring economic growth by providing money

to hospitals, and lowering costs in the long run.

(REDUCED COSTS) The health care reform law expands access to

affordable health care to millions, lowering costs for everyone because there

will be fewer uninsured who end up costing the most. And by focusing more

on preventive care, we will decrease our health care costs and our deficits in

the long-term, strengthening our health care system and economy.

(MORAL) Passing health care reform was the right thing to do because it will

provide affordable coverage for millions who didn't have it before. This law

makes sure children, people with disabilities and the working poor can

receive quality health care at an affordable price, while ensuring those who

have insurance can keep their current plans and doctors.

67

(SMALL BUSINESS) The health care law helps small businesses provide

affordable health insurance to their employees by allowing them to shop in their

own health insurance marketplace to compare plans. Many small businesses

are eligible for tax credits to help cover the cost of providing coverage, so they

can offer insurance that is affordable both for them and their employees.

37

39

51

74

71

71


Among women, focusing on benefits and services intensely strong




law.



















68

Among women

31

42

54

74

82

78


Same among unmarried women




law.



















69

Among unmarried women

31 45

37 28 28 26

75

85 78

73 71 65

Total Seniors Independents White non-college

Rising AmericanElectorate

Unmarriedwomen

Very closely

How closely have you been following news about politics and Congress -- very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or

not closely at all?

In Democratic seats, seniors are really paying attention

70

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