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Norwegian Air Shuttle ASAQ4 2016 Presentation 16 February 2017
Highlights Q4 2016
Final approval for NAI by the US Department of Transportation (DOT)
Reported EBITDA of NOK 673 million (-266)
Q4 load factor up 1 p.p. to 86 %
Added three new Boeing 737-800, one 787-9 Dreamliner and the first two Airbus 320neos
Started 15 new routes in Q4
Norwegian.com voted best low-cost airline website at The World Travel Awards
Norwegian Reward reached 5 million members
2
Highlights FY 2016
Reported EBITDA of NOK 3.1 bn (1.5)
Full-year load factor up 2 p.p. to 88 %
Added 17 new 737-800, four 787-9 Dreamliners and two 320neos
34 new routes, including nine new intercontinental routes
Launched new crew bases in Rome and Palma
Start-up of routes between several US cities and Paris
SkyTrax awards for World’s Best Long Haul Low-Cost Airline (second time) and Europe’s Best Low-Cost Airline (fourth year in a row)
3
7 million passengers in Q4 2016 (+17 %)
4Pax (mill) 2.0 2.2 2.8 3.3 4.0 4.4 5.2 5.6 6.1 7.2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Q4 07 Q4 08 Q4 09 Q4 10 Q4 11 Q4 12 Q4 13 Q4 14 Q4 15 Q4 16
Pass
enge
rs (m
illio
n)
+ 17 %
Q4 load factor of 86 % (85 %)
5ASK 2,122 2,783 3,432 4,516 5,461 6,517 9,176 11,142 11,909 15,109
Load Factor 77.6 % 76.2 % 76.1 % 77.4 % 78.5 % 76.7 % 77.9 % 80.7 % 84.9 % 85.8 %
77.6 % 76.2 % 76.1 % 77.4 % 78.5 % 76.7 % 77.9 %80.7 %
84.9 % 85.8 %
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000
10,00011,00012,00013,00014,00015,00016,00017,00018,00019,00020,000
Q4 07 Q4 08 Q4 09 Q4 10 Q4 11 Q4 12 Q4 13 Q4 14 Q4 15 Q4 16
Load
Fact
or
Avai
labl
e Se
at K
M (A
SK)
ASK Load Factor Load+0.9 p.p.
27 % growth in capacity (ASK)
28 % growth in traffic (RPK)
Average flying distance increased by 8 %
Market share up at all key airports
6
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
Oslo Arlanda Copenhagen Helsinki Gatwick Spanish bases
Q4 11 Q4 12 Q4 13 Q4 14 Q4 15 Q4 16
+ 1,096,000 pax 42 % mkt share
+ 495,000 pax21 % mkt share
+ 486,000 pax17 % mkt share
+ 185,000 pax14 % mkt share
+ 657,000 pax11 % mkt share
+ 1,661,000 pax5 % mkt share
Mkt:26 mill
Mkt:27 mill
Mkt:146 mill
Mkt:42 mill
Mkt:17 mill
Mkt:29 mill
Source: 12 month rolling passengers as reported by Avinor, Swedavia, Copenhagen Airports, Finavia, Gatwick Airport, Aena
Over 3.6 million passengers in Spain (+1.1 million) in FY 2016Strongest passenger growth in Spain, US and UK3 % passenger growth in Norway (adj. for the strike in 2015)
Growth in number of passengers in 2016 (%): Split passengers by origin for 2016:
More than 1 million new passengers in Spain
7
8
Key revenue drivers: More customers, new ancillary products and Reward
Q4 unit passenger revenue -13 % to 0.32 (-8 % in constant currency)
An average 18 % revenue growth over the last five years
15 % revenue growth in Q4
Total revenue 3,106 3,786 4,602 5,319 6,102Passenger 2,709 3,187 3,768 4,324 4,796% y.o.y. chg 23 % 18 % 18 % 15 % 11 %Anci l lary 340 458 663 774 927% y.o.y. chg 16 % 35 % 45 % 17 % 20 %Other 57 140 172 220 379% y.o.y. chg 14 % 145 % 23 % 28 % 72 %
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Q4 12 Q4 13 Q4 14 Q4 15 Q4 16
NO
K m
illio
n
Other
Ancillary
Passenger
Total revenue
+ 15 %
20 % growth in total ancillary revenue in Q4
9
Per passenger sales increased by 2 % to NOK 129 in Q4
Seasonal variation
Full-year 2016 per passenger of NOK 134 (+5 %)
Split by category:
A total of 50 intercontinental routes in 2017
10
Adding USA - Barcelona and Copenhagen - San Francisco in 2017More new routes to be announced and adding frequency to existing routes
Scaling up the Dreamliner fleet to 32 by 2018
11
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Aircraft 3 7 8 12 21 32Seats 873 2 037 2 328 3 704 6 800 10 584
Deliveries 787-8(291 seats)
Deliveries 787-9(344 seats)
Widebody aircraft (delivered and firm orders)
Key figures and estimated Dreamliner growth
12
2013 2014 2015 2016ASK (mill ion) 1,571 8,087 10,388 14,681 Load Factor 89 % 87 % 93 % 93 %Passengers 192,579 941,265 1,293,767 1,872,694 Legs 769 3,683 4,799 6,668
2016 2017P 2018PASK 14 681 23 500 47 000 growth 41 % 60 % 100 %Legs 6 668 10 400 19 500 growth 39 % 60 % 100 %
2016 2017P 2018PASK 14,681 23,500 47,000 growth 41 % 60 % 100 %Legs 6,668 10,400 19,500 growth 39 % 60 % 100 %
Forecast Dreamliners
Key figures Dreamliners
Adding 32 new aircraft in 2017
13
8 58 11 1320
22 2323 22
115 5
2
2 55 5
55 5
5
7 16 21
2325 29
2927 23 19 15
28
1013
13
13 1719
19
2
7 15 23
30 41 5164
7981
6 16
2
55
9
14
20
1
23
3
7
12
8 11 1322
3240
46
5762
68
85
9599
116
144
163
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2003year-end
2004year-end
2005year-end
2006year-end
2007year-end
2008year-end
2009year-end
2010year-end
2011year-end
2012year-end
2013year-end
2014year-end
2015year-end
2016year-end
2017year-end
2018year-end
B788/B789 owned
B788/B789 leased
B737 MAX 8 owned
B738 owned
B738 S&LB
B738 leased
B733 owned
B733 leased
M80 leased
2017:Deliveries 787-9
+3096 seatsDeliveries 737-800 and 737Max
+4,296 seatsRe-deliveries 737-800
-744 seats
Unit cost comparison based on the latest full-year results (in NOK)
14
Sources: Based on official full-year 2015 annual report for Norwegian Air Shuttle, Finnair, Vueling, SAS Group (31.10.2015), Easyjet (30.09.2015), and full-year 2015 report for Ryanair and WizzAir (31.03.2016). Eurowings figures are from the “Eurowings Management Presentation” 10.06.2016.
• Cost per available seat kilometer is an industry-wide cost level indicator often referred to as “CASK”. Usually represented as operating expenses before depreciation and amortization (EBITDA level) over produced seat kilometers (ASK). • Foreign exchange rates used are equivalent to the daily average rates corresponding to the reporting periods and as stated by the Central Bank of Norway• Note: For some carriers the available financial data represents Group level data which may include cost items from activities that are unrelated to airline operations.• Other losses / (gains) is not included in the CASK concept as it primarily contains hedge gains/losses offset under financial items* as well as other non-operational income and/or cost items such as gains on the sale of spare part inventory and unrealized foreign currency effects on receivables/payables and (hedges of operational expenses).
*Norwegian hedges USD/NOK to counter foreign currency risk exposure on USD denominated borrowings translated to the prevailing currency rate at each balance sheet date. Hedge gains and losses are according to IFRS recognized under operating expenses (other losses/ (gains) while foreign currency gains and losses from translation of USD denominated borrowings are recognized under financial items.
Financials
15
EBITDA improved to NOK 673 million in Q4
16
Q4 13 Q4 14 Q4 15 Q4 16 Q4 13 Q4 14 Q4 15 Q4 16EBITDA margin -1 % -19 % -5 % 11 % EBT margin -7 % -26 % -13 % 5 %
-41
-869
-266
673
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
NO
K m
illio
n
-283
-1,185
-703
300
-1,500
-1,250
-1,000
-750
-500
-250
0
250
500
NO
K m
illio
n
EBT development Q4EBITDA development Q4
(NOK million) Q4 16 Q4 15 Chg 2016 2015 Chg
Revenue 6,102 5,319 783 26,055 22,491 3,564
EBITDAR 1,357 295 1,062 5,958 3,694 2,264
EBITDA 673 (266) 940 3,116 1,481 1,635
Pre-tax profit (EBT) 300 (703) 1,003 1,508 75 1,433
Net profit 197 (373) 571 1,135 246 889
Clean EBITDA* increased to NOK 3.2 bn
17* Clean EBITDA: Reported EBITDA adj. for other losses/gains and non-recurring items
NOK million Q4 16 Q4 15 Chg 2016 2015 Chg
Revenue 6,102 5,319 783 26,055 22,491 3,563
EBITDA as reported 673 -266 940 3,116 1,481 1,635
Other losses/gains 852 -515 1,367 577 -474 1,051
EBITDA ex. other losses/gains -179 249 -427 2,540 1,955 584
Non-recurring items: - industry action - - - -110 - additional expense engine overhaul - - - -118 - extra passenger compensation and refunds - - -192 - - writedown assets for sale, gain SLB 75 -60 104 -60 - wetlease -60 - -529 -105 Sum non-recurring items 15 -60 -617 -393
Clean EBITDA -194 309 -502 3,157 2,348 808 Margin clean EBITDA -3.2 % 5.8 % 12.1 % 10.4 %
Margin recovery following long haul build-up
18
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
EBITDAR-margin (12 months rolling) EBIT-margin (12 months rolling)
Financial crisis
Fuel pricedrop
launched Long haul
Q4 unit cost cut by 2 % to NOK 0.42
1 % lower unit cost in constant currency
Unit cost ex. fuel decreased 1 % to NOK 0.32 (flat in constant currency)
19Other losses / (gains) is not included in the CASK concept as it primarily contains hedge gains/losses offset under financial items* as well as other non-operational income and/or cost items such as gains on the sale of spare part inventory and unrealized foreign currency effects on receivables/payables and (hedges of operational expenses).*Norwegian hedges USD/NOK to counter foreign currency risk exposure on USD denominated borrowings translated to the prevailing currency rate at each balance sheet date. Hedge gains and losses are according to IFRS recognized under operating expenses (other losses/ (gains) while foreign currency gains and losses from translation of USD denominated borrowings are recognized under financial items.
Cost per ASK (CASK) NOK 0.56 0.63 0.49 0.47 0.48 0.45 0.42 0.43 0.43 0.42
CASK ex. fuel 0.41 0.42 0.40 0.36 0.33 0.30 0.28 0.30 0.32 0.32
0.41
0.42 0.400.36
0.330.30
0.280.30
0.32 0.32
0.15
0.21
0.15
0.11 0.15
0.15 0.14
0.13 0.10 0.10
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
Q4 07 Q4 08 Q4 09 Q4 10 Q4 11 Q4 12 Q4 13 Q4 14 Q4 15 Q4 16
Ope
ratin
g co
st E
BITD
A le
vel p
er A
SK (C
ASK)
CASK ex. fuel
Fuel share of CASK
Cost per ASK (CASK) (NOK) 0.53 0.56 0.49 0.46 0.46 0.45 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.41
CASK ex. fuel 0.40 0.37 0.38 0.34 0.32 0.31 0.29 0.29 0.31 0.32
0.40
0.37 0.380.34
0.32 0.310.29 0.29
0.31 0.32
0.130.19
0.15
0.120.14 0.14
0.14 0.140.11 0.09
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Oper
atin
g co
st EB
ITDA
leve
l per
ASK
(CAS
K)
CASK ex. fuel
Fuel share of CASK
Full-year unit cost cut by 3 % to NOK 0.41
6 % lower unit cost in constant currency
Unit cost ex. fuel increased 2 % to NOK 0.32 (-1 % in constant currency)
20Other losses / (gains) is not included in the CASK concept as it primarily contains hedge gains/losses offset under financial items* as well as other non-operational income and/or cost items such as gains on the sale of spare part inventory and unrealized foreign currency effects on receivables/payables and (hedges of operational expenses).*Norwegian hedges USD/NOK to counter foreign currency risk exposure on USD denominated borrowings translated to the prevailing currency rate at each balance sheet date. Hedge gains and losses are according to IFRS recognized under operating expenses (other losses/ (gains) while foreign currency gains and losses from translation of USD denominated borrowings are recognized under financial items.
Full impact of lower fuel cost
Stable personnel cost at 16 %
Fuel cost share reduced to 22 %
Status on fuel hedging:52 % of 2017 at USD 49414 % of 1H 2018 at USD 497
21
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
Q4 11 Q4 12 Q4 13 Q4 14 Q4 15 Q4 16
12 mths rolling 12 mths rolling 12 mths rolling 12 mths rolling 12 mths rolling 12 mths rolling
Personnel
Other
Technical
Airport/ATC
Leasing
Depreciation
Sales & Distribution
Handling
Fuel
Fuel22 %
Personnel16 %
Airport & ATC12 %
Handling12 %
Leasing10 %
Technical9 %
Gen. and adm. exp.
5 %
Other flight ops. exp.
4 %
Depr.4 %
Sales/ distrib.
2 %
NOK 3 bn cash-flow from operations in 2016
22
Invested NOK 6.5 bn in new aircraft of which NOK 3.2 bn financed by own cash
NOK 2.3 bn in cash at the end of Q4 (+NOK 0.7 bn in undrawn facility)
NOK million Q4 16 Q4 15 Chg 2016 2015 Chg
Profit before tax 300 -703 1,003 1,508 75 1,433 Paid taxes - - - -29 -44 16 Depreciation 338 367 -29 1,296 1,133 163 Change air traffic settlement liabilities -445 -186 -259 652 1,049 -397 Change working capital 13 245 -231 -381 143 -524 Net cash flows from operating activities 206 -278 483 3,047 2,357 690 Net cash flows from investing activities -1,112 -657 -455 -6,512 -5,189 -1,323 Net cash flows from financial activities 981 1,081 -100 3,303 3,282 21 Foreign exchange effect on cash 16 11 5 33 -7 40 Net change in cash and cash equivalents 90 158 -67 -131 443 -574 Cash and cash equivalents, end of period 2,324 2,454 -131 2,324 2,454 -131
2,454Cash
2,324
2,657Receivables
3,470
2,102 Other assets
2,241
5,939
Aircraft PDP 7,156
18,482
Aircraft22,572
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Q4 15 Q4 16
NO
K m
illio
n
Equity4,049 2,965
Pre-sold tickets4,666 4,014
Otherliabilities
5,573 5,070
PDP and bonds5,895
4,695
Aircraft financing
17,580
14,890
Q4 16 Q4 15
Equity improved by NOK 1.1 bn
23
Added 13 new 737-800 on balance the last 12 months + PDP’s
NOK 21 bn net debt (from 17 bn in 2015)
11 % equity ratio (9 %). 16 % when adding market value of Bank Norwegian (NOFI)
Debt mix:
Number of aircraft:
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2017 2018 2019 2020 After 2020NO
K m
illio
n
Long-term financing PDP Bonds
Balanced mix of funding
24
30 aircraft financed in US capital markets, 37 by export credits
3.7 % average interest rate on long-term aircraft financing
95 % of AC financing on fixed rates
# aircraft B737 B787 A320Export credits 34 3EETC 10Private placement/banks 20 2SLB 17Leasing 23 9Total 104 12 2
Debt maturity profile:
Financing on track
Expected capex (all aircraft incl. PDP)USD 1.8 bn for 2017 (reduced from USD 2.1 bn)USD 2.1 bn for 2018 (increased from USD 2.0 bn)
PDP financing / liquidityPDP financing for 50 320neos in placeNew unsecured bond in January (SEK 800 million)New credit facility (NOK 1 bn)
Long-term financingEx-Im and ECA guaranteed financingEETC financingPrivate placementsSale leaseback (SLB)Banks
25
Outlook for 2017
Markets and businessNegative impact from passenger tax in Norway
Weaker demand in the UK post Brexit
Booking volumes on par with last year, capacity adjusted
An estimated production growth (ASK) of 30 % (unchanged)737-800 / 737 MAX +20 %, 787 Dreamliners +60 %
Increasing distance driven by mix
Unit cost target of NOK 0.39 to 0.40 (up from 0.38 to 0.39)Assumptions: Fuel price of USD 500 per metric ton, USD/NOK 8.25, EUR/NOK 9.00
Impact of SLB (leasing is included in CASK) and ramp-up of intercontinental operations
Based on the current route portfolio and planned production
32 new aircraft entering operations in 201717 737-800 (returning four old leased aircraft)
Six 737 MAX
Nine 787-9 Dreamliners (incl. five leased)
Three 320neos to be leased out to HK Express (Seven neos delayed)26
Summary
Strongest full-year result in the history of Norwegian
Building load factor
Continued passenger growth
Preparing for global expansion
Launch of new intercontinental routes with the 737 MAX in 2017
Financing on track
27
Norwegian operates 471 routes to 130 destinations
28
From bases in
SWEDEN DENMARK FINLAND
From the
UK base
From bases in
SPAIN
Intercontinental
From bases in
NORWAY