Northwest ISD Quarterly Demographic Report

2Q13

• Texas has had a job growth of 31.5 percent since 1995. Almost triple the nationwide growth of 12 percent. (City Journal – Winter 2013)

• DFW, Houston and Austin Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) created more than 230 thousand jobs in the last 12 months. (Metrostudy)

• The state's unemployment rate has been at or below the national rate for 78 consecutive months. (http://www.thetexaseconomy.org/economic-outlook/ )

• Since 2000, 1 million more people have moved to Texas than have left for other states. In 2011, Houston became the 5th largest MSA in the country with DFW

the 4th behind only NYC, LA and Chicago (City Journal – Winter 2013)• Unemployment rates - Texas Labor Market Information (July 2013)

- U.S. 7.6%- Texas 6.5%- DFW MSA 6.2%- Tarrant County 5.7%- Fort Worth 6.3%

• DFW builders put up 5,861 new homes in the last quarter, a 27 percent increase year over year. (Dallas Business Journal)

• Texas sales tax collections have increased for 39 consecutive months (Year-over-

year) and sales tax receipts for June 2013 were 9.1 percent higher than for June 2012 (Texas Comptroller)

Economic Conditions

Dallas/Fort Worth MarketMultiple Listing Service – YTD SFD Activity & Inventory

Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center for NTREIS

Jun-13 % ChangeYTD Sales 43,230 19%Average Price $225,232 9%Median Price $170,000 10%Listings 23,791 -19%DOM 50 -26%Months Supply 3.5 -32%

Dallas/Fort Worth Market SFD-TH – Starts and Closings

20,246

17,931

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2Q03 2Q04 2Q05 2Q06 2Q07 2Q08 2Q09 2Q10 2Q11 2Q12 2Q13

Annual Sta

rts

& C

losi

ngs

Annual Starts

Annual Closings

Legend

5 Year Change

5 YR Change

Negative

0 - 100

100 - 250

250 - 750

750 - 1500

> 1500

Region 10 and 11 Growth2007/08 – 2012/13

Regional Enrollment TrendsDallas/Fort Worth

Region 11 Region 10

Rank District Name2007/08

Enrollment2012/13

Enrollment2007/08 -

2012/13 Growth1 NORTHWEST ISD 11,898 17,813 5,9152 DENTON ISD 20,892 25,782 4,8903 FORT WORTH ISD 78,857 83,491 4,6344 KELLER ISD 29,458 33,365 3,9075 EAGLE MT-SAGINAW ISD 14,165 17,731 3,5666 MANSFIELD ISD 29,696 32,883 3,1877 LEWISVILLE ISD 49,636 52,522 2,8868 ARLINGTON ISD 62,863 65,005 2,1429 BIRDVILLE ISD 22,063 24,189 2,126

10 BURLESON ISD 9,047 10,581 1,53411 HURST-EULESS-BEDFORD ISD 20,392 21,819 1,42712 LITTLE ELM ISD 5,409 6,399 99013 WHITE SETTLEMENT ISD 5,716 6,540 82414 EVERMAN ISD 4,746 5,401 65515 LAKE WORTH ISD 2,853 3,256 40316 CASTLEBERRY ISD 3,422 3,814 39217 KRUM ISD 1,506 1,895 38918 AUBREY ISD 1,634 2,006 37219 WEATHERFORD ISD 7,264 7,635 37120 ALEDO ISD 4,444 4,729 285

Rank District Name2007/08

Enrollment2012/13

Enrollment2007/08 -

2012/13 Growth1 FRISCO ISD 27,418 42,703 15,2852 RICHARDSON ISD 34,180 38,046 3,8663 PROSPER ISD 2,675 5,502 2,8274 ALLEN ISD 17,102 19,891 2,7895 WYLIE ISD 10,743 13,425 2,6826 MESQUITE ISD 36,640 39,128 2,4887 IRVING ISD 32,746 35,028 2,2828 MCKINNEY ISD 22,426 24,444 2,0189 GRAND PRAIRIE ISD 25,317 26,928 1,611

10 FORNEY ISD 7,015 8,571 1,55611 PLANO ISD 53,683 55,188 1,50512 ROCKWALL ISD 13,064 14,483 1,41913 LOVEJOY ISD 2,501 3,650 1,14914 DALLAS ISD 157,804 158,915 1,11115 WAXAHACHIE ISD 6,561 7,652 1,09116 COPPELL ISD 9,948 10,997 1,04917 GARLAND ISD 57,169 58,056 88718 DUNCANVILLE ISD 12,467 13,271 80419 PRINCETON ISD 2,674 3,435 76120 ROYSE CITY ISD 4,144 4,905 761

New Home Ranking Report by ISD – 2Q13

Dallas/Fort Worth AreaRank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future

1 Frisco ISD 2,767 2,240 4,287 10,2682 Northwest ISD 1,193 1,133 1,619 22,6413 Denton ISD 1,172 995 2,538 14,4484 Keller ISD 869 890 1,375 3,3645 Lewisville ISD 900 797 1,499 2,0106 Prosper ISD 868 761 1,682 15,4197 Dallas ISD 880 706 2,175 7,3408 Eagle Mtn. - Saginaw ISD 726 651 1,759 20,0469 Mansfield ISD 644 634 836 5,723

10 Little Elm ISD 669 630 939 6,99611 McKinney ISD 732 621 1,315 3,03612 Allen ISD 631 548 1,023 1,44713 Plano ISD 398 385 925 1,38314 Rockwall ISD 529 377 1,705 8,07315 Crowley ISD 406 368 2,009 8,22916 Wylie ISD 339 350 502 4,15517 Forney ISD 403 329 1,528 11,45818 Fort Worth ISD 347 326 1,225 4,80119 Burleson ISD 373 315 838 3,70620 Anna ISD 353 303 416 3,735 Totals 20,384 18,098 48,859 274,328

Home Value Comparison

Source: Zillow-Yahoo Real Estate Network

Jan 2008

Jul 2008

Jan 2009

Jul 2009

Jan 2010

Jul 2010

Jan 2011

Jul 2011

Jan 2012

Jul 2012

Jan 2013$100,000

$140,000

$180,000

$220,000

$260,000

$300,000

Average Home Value by City

Haslet Justin Trophy Club Roanoke

Source: Tarrant County Appraisal District

128,752139,907

112,509 117,730

192,191204,771

161,333

183,254

50,000

70,000

90,000

110,000

130,000

150,000

170,000

190,000

210,000

230,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

SF V

alue

North Tarrant SF average valueEagle Mountain-Saginaw ISD Fort Worth ISD Keller ISD Northwest ISD

Foreclosure Distribution 2Q13

ISD 2Q11 2Q12 2Q13Dallas ISD 507 502 500Fort Worth ISD 277 266 228Arlington ISD 257 251 183Garland ISD 245 208 166Mesquite ISD 142 154 146Mansfield ISD 191 196 127Lewisville ISD 155 156 115Grand Prairie ISD 86 98 106Crowley ISD 106 114 94McKinney ISD 93 63 90Keller ISD 142 143 86Plano ISD 154 148 83Denton ISD 113 107 83Birdville ISD 98 99 78Eagle Mt-Saginaw ISD 94 99 72Frisco ISD 153 122 71De Soto ISD 73 98 71Carrollton-Farmers Branch ISD 96 66 68Northwest ISD 78 100 66Rockwall ISD 53 64 65Little Elm ISD 47 49 64Richardson ISD 99 89 57Carroll ISD 15 15 57Irving ISD 72 69 54Azle ISD 23 22 54Midlothian ISD 30 20 41Hurst-Euless-Bedford ISD 75 72 40Royse City ISD 22 21 33Grapevine-Colleyville ISD 30 20 33

Northwest ISD New Housing Activity

Starts 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Closings 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1Q 339 185 303 235 251 288   1Q 462 233 232 230 218 226

2Q 419 251 345 268 298 363   2Q 446 276 340 230 331 318 

3Q 387 366 264 282 286     3Q 444 303 348 263 333  

4Q 275 258 204 256 257     4Q 421 308 276 295 258  

Total 1,420 1,060 1,116 1,041 1,092 651   Total 1,773 1,120 1,196 1,018 1,140 544

2Q083Q08

4Q081Q09

2Q093Q09

4Q091Q10

2Q103Q10

4Q101Q11

2Q113Q11

4Q111Q12

2Q123Q12

4Q121Q13

2Q130

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900 Starts Closings Inventory

• Quarterly starts are above 350 for first time in 4 years with a 22% increase over 2Q12.• 2Q13 closings are over 300 following the upward trend of starts and inventory.

Annual Closing Distribution 2Q13

Rank SubdivisionAnnual Starts

Quarter Starts

Annual Closings

Quarter Closings

1 Highlands at Trophy Club 174 43 199 442 Sendera Ranch - TES 163 65 122 363 Briarwyck 82 17 80 294 Harmon Ranch 93 31 73 255 Tehama Ridge 82 26 68 336 Willow Ridge Estates 63 19 59 187 Trophy Club/Turnberry 54 13 52 178 Shale Creek 28 4 47 69 River's Edge 31 5 41 49 Valley Ridge 40 13 41 159 Trails of Fossil Creek 21 0 41 12

TOTALS 831 236 823 239

Top Subdivisions - 2Q13 (Ranked by Annual Closings)

Vacant Developed Lots 2Q13

Top 10 Subdivisions -2Q13 (Ranked by remaining Vacant Developed Lots)

Rank Subdivision VDL Future1 Sendera Ranch - TES 141 3,7842 Tehama Ridge 111 03 Highlands at Trophy Club 105 2654 Highlands Glen 95 05 Willow Ridge Estates 91 3796 Dorado Ranch 75 1407 Chadwick Farms 68 1338 Willow Springs Ranch 64 09 Seventeen Lakes 63 550

10 Reatta Ridge Addition 59 99 TOTALS 872 5,350

Future Lots 2Q13

Top 10 Subdivisions - 2Q13 (Ranked by Future Inventory)

Rank Subdivision VDL Future1 Tradition 0 4,5172 Sendera Ranch - TES 141 3,7843 Sendera Ranch - SRES 50 2,7734 Bonds Ranch 0 1,1625 Richmond 0 7406 Canyon Falls 0 7267 Trails of Fossil Creek 14 7088 Shale Creek 48 6009 Seventeen Lakes 63 550

10 Elizabeth Creek Estates 0 539 TOTALS 316 16,099

Overall Housing Databy Elementary Attendance Zone

Elementary ZoneAnnual Starts

Quarter Starts

Annual Closings

Quarter Closings

Occupied Homes Model

Finished Vacant

Under Construction Inventory

Vacant Dev. Lots Future Lots Total

BECK ELEMENTARY 10 3 12 2 859 0 4 5 9 122 234 1,224CLARA LOVE ELEMENTARY 31 5 41 4 1,678 1 0 4 5 2 311 1,996

COX ELEMENTARY 43 10 41 9 711 1 8 15 24 131 1,317 2,183GRANGER ELEMENTARY 6 0 15 1 2,351 0 1 0 1 0 0 2,352

HASLET ELEMENTARY 40 13 30 12 1,318 0 1 15 16 84 1,100 2,518HATFIELD ELEMENTARY 71 50 31 7 545 2 3 48 53 63 6,078 6,739HUGHES ELEMENTARY 86 28 67 28 1,329 2 18 26 46 57 94 1,526JUSTIN ELEMENTARY 23 9 15 6 995 0 0 9 9 162 365 1,531

LAKEVIEW ELEMENTARY 248 56 277 64 2,597 7 21 70 98 149 297 3,141NANCE ELEMENTARY 43 4 65 16 1,272 1 4 3 8 52 1,559 2,891

PETERSON ELEMENTARY 193 63 161 65 1,719 6 19 70 95 195 597 2,606PRAIRIE VIEW ELEMENTARY 28 4 47 6 822 1 1 4 6 72 786 1,686

ROANOKE ELEMENTARY 82 17 80 29 866 2 7 20 29 52 1,244 2,191SCHLUTER ELEMENTARY 100 25 94 28 1,321 6 13 28 47 182 1,828 3,378

SENDERA RANCH ELEMENTARY 9 2 29 3 1,062 5 1 0 6 50 2,773 3,891SEVEN HILLS ELEMENTARY 17 9 6 2 626 1 2 8 11 105 274 1,016THOMPSON ELEMENTARY 163 65 122 36 1,271 0 21 63 84 141 3,784 5,280

Grand Total 1,193 363 1,133 318 21,342 35 124 388 547 1,619 22,641 46,149                         

*Inventory = models + finished vacant lots + under construction

Note: Sendera Ranch has been split between SRES and TES as per plat information provided by Metrostudy.

Ten Year Forecastby Grade

GRADE LEVEL PROJECTIONS

Year (Oct.) EE/PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Growth %

2007/08 210 1,041 1,067 973 997 945 957 908 890 867 966 797 695 592 11,905

2008/09 201 1,166 1,141 1,147 1,035 1,085 1,009 1,029 995 950 1,008 887 732 627 13,012 1,107 10%

2009/10 252 1,227 1,220 1,218 1,148 1,127 1,151 1,058 1,101 1,044 1,114 1,013 821 670 14,164 1,152 8.9%

2010/11 285 1,284 1,297 1,303 1,282 1,201 1,219 1,230 1,122 1,116 1,219 1,122 925 766 15,371 1,207 8.5%

2011/12 270 1,376 1,376 1,394 1,362 1,326 1,287 1,311 1,274 1,182 1,287 1,214 1,030 866 16,555 1,184 7.7%

2012/13 278 1,442 1,456 1,445 1,472 1,428 1,395 1,397 1,377 1,321 1,343 1,298 1,157 954 17,763 1,208 7.3%

2013/14 291 1,557 1,590 1,591 1,571 1,607 1,574 1,398 1,438 1,419 1,478 1,283 1,210 1,128 19,135 1,372 7.7%

2014/15 291 1,666 1,683 1,693 1,705 1,674 1,697 1,599 1,458 1,500 1,617 1,414 1,196 1,185 20,378 1,243 6.5%

2015/16 291 1,778 1,797 1,802 1,790 1,818 1,776 1,734 1,648 1,505 1,707 1,573 1,327 1,177 21,723 1,345 6.6%

2016/17 291 1,888 1,917 1,912 1,912 1,908 1,926 1,803 1,784 1,693 1,704 1,646 1,471 1,306 23,161 1,438 6.6%

2017/18 291 2,012 2,040 2,045 2,036 2,042 2,026 1,963 1,857 1,838 1,947 1,644 1,540 1,451 24,732 1,571 6.8%

2018/19 291 2,153 2,180 2,184 2,171 2,181 2,172 2,064 2,017 1,911 2,088 1,885 1,540 1,518 26,355 1,624 6.6%

2019/20 291 2,290 2,327 2,325 2,309 2,312 2,320 2,206 2,116 2,076 2,172 2,018 1,768 1,516 28,046 1,691 6.4%

2020/21 291 2,435 2,467 2,480 2,457 2,468 2,460 2,361 2,267 2,178 2,362 2,100 1,894 1,741 29,961 1,915 6.8%

2021/22 291 2,590 2,626 2,632 2,626 2,629 2,629 2,502 2,424 2,333 2,471 2,287 1,971 1,860 31,871 1,910 6.4%

2022/23 291 2,752 2,792 2,799 2,788 2,808 2,801 2,674 2,569 2,494 2,645 2,391 2,147 1,935 33,886 2,015 6.3%

Elementary CampusTen Year Forecast

• Elementary growth = one new elementary per year

NORTHWEST ISD ProjectionsElementary Schools 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23Beck Elementary 711 788 841 935 1,007 1,081 1,131 1,179 1,213 1,260 1,309Clara Love Elementary 569 632 697 728 748 757 799 803 791 793 797Cox Elementary 357 391 446 491 548 604 680 765 862 971Granger Elementary 876 882 879 887 879 862 832 821 819 817 820Haslet Elementary 494 484 475 497 497 519 548 571 597 623 649Hatfield Elementary 443 386 427 470 522 581 635 708 785 865 948Hughes Elementary 575 596 615 601 639 667 692 739 782 824 862Justin Elementary 510 503 523 534 555 582 612 632 651 667 676Lakeview Elementary 485 544 562 590 616 625 648 670 689 707 726Nance Elementary 454 483 505 508 519 528 553 570 589 612 634Peterson Elementary 614 695 776 871 926 963 1020 1059 1109 1163 1217Prairie View Elementary 445 486 523 547 586 598 614 628 641 658 674Roanoke Elementary 808 864 933 958 1019 1097 1187 1284 1395 1513 1641Sendera Ranch Elementary 556 605 668 764 844 987 1165 1309 1454 1603 1741Seven Hills Elementary 526 546 579 616 662 732 790 860 940 1023 1117Schluter Elementay 418 451 496 545 619 689 779 881 997 1127 1275Thompson Elementary 432 481 520 555 624 676 722 779 841 904 974TOTAL ELEMENTARY 8,916 9,781 10,409 11,052 11,754 12,492 13,332 14,174 15,058 16,023 17,031Elementary growth 525 865 628 643 702 738 841 842 884 965 1,008

Middle School & High School Ten Year Forecast

Middle Schools 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23Chisholm Trail Middle School 863 883 912 983 1,041 1,133 1,175 1,280 1,363 1,464 1,569Gene Pike Middle School 758 769 775 791 794 881 914 958 1,010 1,099 1,160Medlin Middle School 895 976 1,052 1,122 1,185 1,223 1,286 1,367 1,465 1,548 1,632Tidwell Middle School 911 929 1,038 1,196 1,395 1,548 1,671 1,770 1,824 1,876 1,964Wilson Middle School 668 698 780 795 865 873 946 1,023 1,144 1,272 1,412TOTAL MIDDLE SCHOOL 4,095 4,255 4,557 4,887 5,280 5,658 5,992 6,398 6,806 7,259 7,737MIDDLE SCHOOL GROWTH 328 160 302 330 393 378 334 406 408 453 478High Schools 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23Northwest High School 2,493 2,716 2,890 3,109 3,334 3,499 3,691 3,866 4,111 4,330 4,636Byron Nelson High School 2,129 2,260 2,399 2,552 2,670 2,960 3,217 3,485 3,863 4,136 4,359Steele Accelerated High School 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90Denton County JJAEP 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2Denton Creek 38 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 TOTAL HIGH SCHOOL 4,752 5,099 5,412 5,784 6,127 6,582 7,031 7,474 8,097 8,589 9,118HIGH SCHOOL GROWTH 355 347 313 372 343 455 449 443 623 492 529TOTAL 17,763 19,135 20,378 21,723 23,161 24,732 26,355 28,046 29,961 31,871 33,886Growth 1,208 1,372 1,243 1,345 1,438 1,571 1,624 1,691 1,915 1,910 2,015% Growth 7.3% 7.7% 6.5% 6.6% 6.6% 6.8% 6.6% 6.4% 6.8% 6.4% 6.3%

Summary

• Texas Economy continues to be the strongest state economy in the country.

• New home construction booming and should continue into 2014.

• Home prices are climbing due to low inventories of existing homes and surge in demand.

• Vacant Developed Lot supply is tight with only 1,619 lots, only a 16 month supply.

• Northwest ISD has the highest future lot total in the DFW area with over 22,000 future lots planned.

• Northwest ISD can expect an increase of approximately 7,000 students during the next 5 years.

• North Tarrant and DFW will continue to be one of the strongest growth areas in the country.