Northern Ireland, tourism and peace

Pergamon

Reports

Northern Ireland, tourism and peace

The ongoing peace process in Northern Ireland is considered by u vuriety of commentutors to hold suhstuntial prospects for increasing visitor numbers, growth in business activity and an expanding economy. Albeit early in the process the indications are that such prospects are well founded. This article explores some of the issues und wider implications for tourism development arising from the development of peace and economic growth. Areus considered are changes in the traditional market structure of tourist arrivals, the range and quality of the product and grunt aid.

The current attention that Northern Ireland (NI) is gaining. catalysed by the IRA’s ceasefire of September IYY4. has prompted comments on the potential benefits to arise from the

‘peace dividend’. Such comments may. however. be rather premature and based more on optimism rather than informed opinion. One promis- ing area is tourism and the prospect of increased visitor numbers as a result of peace in the province.’ In the wider context there are also prospects for increasing business activity and an expanding economy. Welcome as these pr.ojections are, they do have implications for the future development of tourism. One such implication is the assumljtion that visitor numbers will incrcasc and traditional market seg-

ments will be maintained. Of more

significance arc the effects on tourism

development of expanding business

activity and an overall improved economy. In the longer term this, para- doxically perhaps, has implications for the viability of assisted projects and local authority services and the hither-

to high levels of grant aid from the Government and the European Union (EC!).

These are important issues. Tour- ism is seen by the Government as a key strategy to ameliorate the ccono- mic and social problems of the pro-

vince. Therefore it is appropriate that we first establish the context which has catalysed this policy which will serve to underpin the subsequent considera- tion of the potential effects of a ‘peace

dividend’ on tourism-related demand. projects and grant aid. The aim here is to present an overview and thereby to highlight key factors involved and to stimulate debate.

Northern Ireland and the development of tourism

The province is one of the most peripheral areas of the UK and the EU. It covers an area of approximate-

ly 5500 square miles. 75% of which is

in agricultural use,’ with a population of approximately I .S million which. in comparison with the rest of the LIK.

has had a consistently higher rate of natural increase.3 Since the lY6Os NI’s economy, as elsewhere. has suffered from the decline of traditional indus- tries, reduced levels of employment in agriculture. collapse of major txm- ployers and periods of recession and

inflation. Allied to this is a lack of

private sector investment. Other related socioeconomic problems include lower income levels. generally higher

fuel prices and a relatively higher cost of living compared with the rest of the

UK.” Further recognition of the plight

51

of the economy is evidenced by its

designation as a ‘less favoured region’

by the EU.i Exacerbating the effects

of these factors have been what arc

euphemistically termed ‘the troubles’.

Violence flared in the late IY6Os and

lY7Os and even though comparative

levels of terrorist acts declined in the

lY8Os the image of ;I land torn by

conflict lingered on. In response. primarily to the econo-

mic problems. the UK Government

has given increasing attention to

tourism”‘.* within the overall strategy

for economic growth, notably en-

capsulated by Sir Kenneth Hloom-

field:

In Great Britain It I\ iin accepted Iact that tourism is a maior contributor to the dc- velopmcnt and .improvcmcnt of the c‘co- nomy. Despite its rclativcly small size and image difficulties. Northern Ireland cork tinucs to share in what is now widely regarded as an intiustr\ with significant growth potential.”

The emphasis on the idevelopment of

tourism and the associated economic

benefits is particularly suitable given

the geographic location, topography

and the problems identified.

Benefits of tourism to the province

The most often cited benefits are:

?? rourisr c~xpc’mlirurc: for lYY4 this was estimated at Cl83 million (in

real terms tourist revenue only ex-

ceeded the I%57 level in IYXY);

* It is noteworthy that government attention to developing tourism in NI has a long record. Local authorities were given pow- ers to promote tourism long bcforc their counterparts in Britain.J The NIT13 was the first statutory TB in the UK created under the Development of Tourist Traffic Act. 194x.

Reports

Table 1 Visitors to NI: 1967-94

Total visitors Purpose of trip (%)

Year (000s) VFR Business Holiday

1967 1080 1970 977 1972 435 1974 486 1976 432 1978 628 1980 710 1982 712 1984 908 1986 824 1988 930 1989 1090 1990 1152 1992 1254 1993 1262 1994 1294

38 25 36

57 26 10 60 23 14 59 20 13 50 21 14 52 22 13 49 24 14 50 24 14 45 25 19 41 30 20 41 30 20

Source: NITB Tourism Facts (annual).

employment: whilst estimates vary, 10 000 jobs is a figure regularly cited by the NITB; GDP: the contribution has been consistently estimated at 1.5%“’ (also Research Department of the NITB, personal communication, 1994).

Valuable as these benefits are, they do indicate low levels of tourist activity. Even so, they have arguably only been attained through the development of infrastructure and superstructure, key influences on the scale and value of a region’s tourism. It is infrastructure that has benefited substantially from government funding and particularly EC structural funds4 The latter, notably from the European Regional De- velopment Fund (ERDF) as a result of NI’s ‘less favoured region’ status, have, in terms of overall funding, pro- vided one of the most substantial grants in the EU.4 In combination with government funding this has re- sulted in an improved infrastructure, notably access by air and inter- regional travel, and a plethora of local authority projects which have facili- tated tourism. Significantly, the local community also is served by such im- provements.

Indeed, the development of tourism gives rise to potential benefits for the community, of particular significance to the province given the levels of deprivation, especially in urban en-

vironments. It can play a significant part in ameliorating negative urban conditions especially when developments seek to improve the visual amenity of the urban townscape, eg in Derry, Carrickfergus and Belfast. Such developments are also important to the local populace as they serve to counteract the situation described by Nicholson-Lord” as ‘derelict land makes derelict people’ and bring potentially substantial benefits to the quality of life. Second, they promote a more positive image thereby stimulat- ing interest from outside investors.” The exemplar is the Lagan Valley development plan’ which sought to address the problems, and contemporary opportunities, arising from the dereliction and decline of traditional activities along the river Lagan within the Greater Belfast area. Tourism, as Roberts argued, is thus:

no longer seen as an ephemeral ‘seaside’ activity, hut a major component of urban and rural renewal strategies.‘”

Overall, through well thought-out strategies, tourism can provide a check to economic decline, catalyse regeneration and new developments and thereby lead to increased levels of tourism demand and related activities. However, contemporary initiatives and developments in NI, it is argued, are more a case of aiming to bring the province up to par rather than developing new ground. The overall situation is that the great majority of projects and attractions, are small scale, predominantly run by local authorities and developed with the aid of grants. This is partly explained by the fact that EU funding was not available for private sector projects pre-1990, since when f6m has been made available out of a total of s2m of structural funds. However, the NITB has been able to assist funding for private sector projects, the main recipients being accommodation operations. Outside this area the private sector has not hitherto considered demand as justify- ing investment. This brings into focus the demand for tourism in the pro-

+ This is one of the largest urban initiatives seen in Europe with initial project costs in excess of f240m.

vince and the market share accorded to the traditional segments.

Visitor flows and market segments

The levels of visitor numbers and the key market segments are presented in Table 1. Following the dramatic decline in visitors in the early 1970s a generally increasing growth is evident. This is partly accounted for by Hen- derson:

‘An Acceptable Level of Violence’. The politician who coined this phrase was roundly condemned in many quarters, and it is a truism that there is no acceptable level of violence. However, experience in Northern Ireland has shown that once ran- dom violence largely ceases, tourists start to return albeit slowly but at an ever increasing rate.14

The low numbers in Table I correlate with periods of economic depression in the UK: the early 1970s oil crisis, high inflation in the mid-1970s, early and late 1980s. The consistent rise since 1988, a 7% average growth rate, may be stabilizing given the more recent figures, ie 1992-1994.’ Signifi- cantly, over the same period domestic tourism has declined. To further this analysis we now turn attention to the main market segments. First, a comparison of 1992 and 1989 with 1967. Whilst total visitor numbers in 1967 were first exceeded in 1989, what is of more importance is that the holiday category has still to grow substantially to achieve the level of demand evident before ‘the troubles’. The mainstays of tourism in NI have been VFR and business. The VFR market accounts for more than one in two of all visitors, more than 50% of tourist nights and approximately 47% of all visitor expenditure for most of the last two decades.‘” We see a declining VFR share from the late 1980s correlating with rising business and holiday markets which reflects the comparative decline in the levels of terrorist activi-

* NITB - personal communication with Research Department. This projection was based on the situation at the end of the summer of 1994. However, it is clear that visitors during the autumn period rose substantially, particularly from the Republic of Ireland. Undoubtedly, this was due to the ceasefire.

52

the prospect that ‘every local authority has one’. Predominantly, these are recent initiatives, eg Lough Neagh Discovery Centre, the Tower Museum in Derry, the Navan Centre or the Knight Ride and Heritage Plaza in Carrickfergus. Many are ‘state of the art’ but then so are many other ‘like‘ attractions in competing destinations. Recent initiatives in the ‘non-heritage’ category are the further development of Dundonald Leisure Park. initiated in the late 1980s (a project which will cost in excess of f3Om if the ultimate aims are realized), the Dunluce Cen- tre in Portrush (f3.7m) and a pro- posed conference centre for Belfast (f27m). Significantly these developments represent millions of pounds of grant aid: in excess of f28m from the EU and f17m from the International Fund for Ireland (IFI). These developments undoubtedly contribute to sustaining current levels of tourist activity but they are rarely on a scale to generate specific demand or significantly extend visits (except for the conference centre. the viability of which is a matter of debate). Second, they are basically what is expected by the experienced tourist, rather than unique.

Although our focus is on visitors to the province, the ‘peace dividend’ has implications for indigenous tourism owing to changes in the wider economy, thus some general observations of the implications of this ‘peace dividend’ are noteworthy. The major proportion of employees are engaged in the public sector, even more if government-funded organizations are taken into account. A reduction in the Government’s involvement could lead to significant reductions in this area and thus in local demand for tourism. Second, there will be a reduction in the army presence and thus reduced revenues for those who directly or indirectly cater to their needs. This might bring into question the viability of some operations which also cater to tourists. Further, government funding of local authorities and their expenditure will be more closely examined. This is liable to lead to greater attention to the subsidizing of leisure facilities and amenities, which has implications for those facilities more narrowly

ties and less negative media coverage witnessed since the 1970s. The rise in business visitors may be attributable to this, indicating greater confidence in the province as well as increased business activity generally. But this also could explain the decline in the VFR market, a continuance of which has implications for the hospitality sector, particularly non- accommodation related services, and levels of tourist activity in urban areas.

The ‘pure holiday’ category

The ‘pure holiday’ category is the most important market segment in terms of destination marketing. The initial decline in holiday traffic is undoubtedly attributable to the rise of terrorism in the province. The varia- tions evident in the 1980s reflect the actions of political organizations to government initiatives, eg demonstra- tions against the Anglo-Irish agree- ment, or atrocities, eg the Enniskillen bombing - after which a number of holiday cruiser firms in Fermanagh reported an almost immediate can- cellation of bookings for the following summer. The fact that the ‘holiday’ segment has been consistently around 13% until the 1990s might be indica- tive of a high degree of return visits every year. For instance, cruising is particularly popular with visitors from Europe, especially Germany, account- ing for some 774 booking weeks in 1989, one in three of which were repeat visitors. ” Alternatively it may indicate a lack of return visits which raises questions as to why; allowing for changes in taste, consumer be- haviour and interests this may indicate, for example, poor experiences on the part of the tourist.

The downturn in the holiday market post-1967 cannot solely be attributed to the ‘troubles’ - undoubtedly general trends in holidaying demand are manifest (for a detailed discussion, see Buckley and Klemm”). Essentially, the dramatic expansion in the supply and diversity of international package holidays coupled with lower costs in real terms has increased competition and the decline of traditional markets. Price is particularly influential. For example a week in Newcastle, Co. Down for a family of four is more

expensive than an equivalent lo-day package holiday in many of the popular resorts of the north Mediterranean coast, a situation which discourages domestic tourism and one exacerbated by the cost of access routes. Addition- al costs incurred in travel by car (a key factor in domestic tourismlx) militate against choosing NI in preference to comparable destination localities in Britain.

Second, other destinations may be offering better products and be more effective at marketing their destinations. As the NIHCA said:

Northern Ireland’s tourist industry is bemg outperformed by Its competitor destinations and continues to lose its share of an expanding internatlonal market for leisure travel.‘”

Other factors that have influenced demand are the availability of information, range and quality of products and ease of reservations: weaknesses in all these areas are still evident to varying degrees.4.‘7,z0 Further influences on demand for holidays include the type of activities and range of attractions: these areas have gained considerably from grant aid.

Activities and attractions

The great majority of activities and attractions are in the countryside:2’ land-use based, eg fishing, inland cruising, golf; or ‘heritage’ based, eg Navan Fort, Giant’s Causeway, Ulster Folk Park and genealogy. There is no Center Part or Alton Towers in NI. The travel time between visitor sites is rarely long and thus may be ‘con- sumed’ easily in a short time. Further, the lack of a large catchment population (the whole island has only about 4.5m people) raises questions about the viability of attractions which are dependent. to any degree. on revenue generation.

The attractions that are present may be lacking in additional facilities, the value of which lies in encouraging longer stays (thus increased expenditure and associated benefits) at the site. It is unlikely that the indigenous population will make many repeat visits to the majority of these attractions; other concerns include the growth of ‘The Heritage Industry’ and

Reports

considered as tourism based. Further- more, the reduction in size, and income of members (ie overtime), of the RUC has implications for leisure spending generally and in particular tourism-related activities.

Towards a conclusion The foregoing discussion serves to establish that whilst NI has sought to develop tourism since the 1960s the key issue emerging is: what is considered to be unique to its main market source - the mainland? No longer are the traditional seaside holidays of the 1960s attractive to the majority, resorts are aged, the ‘natural’ is bounti- ful and much of the rest is ‘add on’ which raises questions about the real potential for substantial growth in the holiday market. Second, we can identify a range of issues arising from the ‘peace dividend’ as follows.

Visitor numbers The demand for NI as a holiday destination is based extensively on rural activities. Whilst it has extensive san- dy beaches, etc the climate is poor and the range of things to do is limited. Overall, many potential visitors may have an image of the province as comprising predominantly quiet countryside, a place for outdoor activities/ recreations, etc; ie not dissimilar to several other regions in Britain. This lacks major appeal as a main holiday destination, especially if climate and access are taken into account. Whether or not such an image is accu- rate is not the key, it is what is per- ceived that counts.2’ However, in terms of the wider European market it does have a degree of uniqueness which makes this market one with the highest potential for growth whilst the USA and Canada hold potential opportunities for ‘tracing the past’, as well as visiting the province out of curiosity if security is felt to be assured.

Undoubtedly VFR visitors have been the mainstay of tourism since the 1960s. Whilst the ‘troubles’ may have deterred ‘pure holiday’ tourists they have probably encouraged VFR traffic; eg emigration has been stimulated by the ‘troubles’ and has undoubtedly

encouraged e’migrks to return for ‘peace of mind’ regarding family and friends. An additional factor is that the traditional family unit is compara- tively strong in the province. The likely effect of a ‘peace dividend’ is that this market will decline, as already appears to be happening. Possibly compensating for this will be a rise in business visitors as a result of any increasing business activity. However, what degree of business travel is related to the public sector and/or ‘the troubles’ is unknown; thus, the oppo- site may be the case.

Attractions The attractions, by and large, are small scale, financed by government funds, and supported by EU and IF1 grants. Few that are not ‘natural’ or based on a heritage theme are substantial enough to engage the visitor for long or to encourage regular repeat visits. Some that are dependent on revenue generation will encounter viability problems, not to mention fi- nance for further development, up- grading, etc.

Grunt aid As noted, the levels of financial aid for tourism projects have been substantial. But are these developments more a case of catching up with the past rather than pre-empting the future? Certainly they contribute to sustaining levels of tourism activity and thus to the economy but the economic and social problems are not going to dis- appear overnight. Any devolution by the Government probably will lead to a significant reduction in funding apart from perhaps a substantial ‘endow- ment’ initially. Further support, and with at least an initially increased budget because of the countries involved - especially the USA - will be forthcoming from the IFI. Third, funding from the EU. probably helped by a ‘sympathy’ factor, in the absence of the troubles may become hard to justify given the economic problems evident elsewhere in the EU.

Cooperative efforts Continued peace and the quest for a permanent political solution present

many opportunities, notably for joint initiatives between tourism organizations in the province and those in the Republic of Ireland to market and promote both North and South, in effect the island of Ireland. To a degree this potential has already been recognized; for instance, the ‘One Is- land’ campaign, catalysed and funded by the IFI, launched in 1989 and targeted at the United States market. The campaign, including programmes promoting golf and heritage, was de- signed to encourage visits to the province by holiday-makers in Eire. A major development following this was the launch of the Gulliver Reservation System throughout the island, also supported by the IF1 and a mark of wider cooperation, particularly between the national tourist boards. More recently, in the summer of 1994, pre-dating the ceasefire, was the joint initiative of the Irish Hotels Federa- tion and the Hospitality Association of NI to produce a joint promotional brochure.

The network of Tourist Information Centres on either side of the border are working more closely together, to their mutual benefit and that of the tourist. One other initiative, arguably a direct outcome of the ceasefire, is that by Aer Lingus which has intro- duced a service to Belfast from New York via Shannon. The peace initiative has also furthered the forging of closer working relationships between organizations not necessarily directly involved in tourism; for example, the Overseas Trade Marketing Program- me has received added impetus and the promotion of consumer advertis- ing in Europe and the USA is serving to support tourism.

Overall, the effects of ‘the peace dividend’ on tourism look less likely to be positive in the medium to long term. Certainly there will be a continuance in the immediate future of the initial growth in visitor numbers; witness levels of demand for accommodation in Belfast towards the end of 1994. The tourism market has changed substantially since the high days of the 1960s. NI has been left behind and it is only recently that we can identify developments in the range, type and quality of attractions.

Arguably, it is more a case of catching up and helping to sustain what is current rather than breaking new ground. This, perhaps, is not surprising given the population size which does bring into question the viability of any sub- atantial attraction; compare the lack of private sector tourism projects of any scale. However, given the low base of visitor numbers even a small but sus- tained, gradual growth in demand for holidays potentially offers substantial benefits to the myriad of small businesses involved. More substantial growth is a matter of conjecture. What will happen once the initial flurry of activity, initiatives and projects settles and peace prevails. as one sincerely hopes it will, is open to debate. What is likely is that the favoured support received will decline, with a concom- itant increase in demand for indigenous resources. The future development of tourism will thus become more dependent on actual demand, potentially exacerbating weaknesses in the product portfolio. The key role players and agents will be faced with a new set of problems. However, they have persevered in the face of adver- sity and the unexpected; thus, given their enthusiasm and abilities, there is little to doubt that they will address tomorrow’s problems with the notable optimism of the past.

David Leslie Department of Hospitality, Tourism

and Leisure Management Glasgow (hledonian University

Park Campus I Park Drive

Glasgow G-3 61~ P, Scotland

References

‘Terry. E ‘Peace dividend for tourism’ Lei- .Sl,i?’ o/‘pc’Yfunirir.s IYY3 ( 127) 15 ‘IJlhtcr Television Murkering Guide 10 Nor/hcrn Idand Marketing and Research Department. Ulster Television. Belfast ‘Ryder. C‘ ‘Northern Ireland’ Dai/y Tde- gruph I6 January IYYI ‘Lcslic. D ‘Tourism and Northern lrcland _ a trouhlcd time lY67-IYYI’. unpublished hlnhtcr of Philosophy thesis. University 01 Lllster. September 1991 ‘Lcslic. D, McGurran, F and McDowell, D A ‘European Regional Development Fund and Northern Ireland: the additional-

ity issue‘ J Public Policy und Adtninktrri- /ion 1989 4 (3) 32--U) “Horwath & Horwath Norrkrn Idand Tourism Srudy. Horwath & llorw;tth, Loll- don (1980) ‘Department of Economic Development (NI) Touri.sm Policy Guiddinrt .Ytu~nwrrr (1986) ‘Graham, C ‘(‘ritcria for government sup port‘ in McDowell. D A ;md Leslie, D (eds) Pkmning fiv Tourism crncf Leisure University of Ulster (IYXX) ‘Bloomfield. Sir Kenneth [then Head t)f the Northern Ireland Civil Service] ‘North- cm Ireland. hospitality and tourism‘ 111 McDowell. D A and Leslie. D (cds) Torrr- ism Resourw~: I.SSIW~, P/annin~ trnri I)(,- velopmen~ University of Ulster (IYYI) “‘Horwath & Horwath Tourism rrntl flrcj Northern Irelund Ecorrom~, London ( I0X-I) “Nicholson-l.ord, D Tlfc, (;rwrrinK 01 Ciries Routlctlgc & Kcgan P;tul. Londrm (19X7) “Judge. E “I’hc role of tourism in the regional and urban economy’ Regionul Slu- dies Associurion Newdefter I YXY ( 164) “Roberts. P Ithcn Chairman of the Kc- gional Studies Association] cluotcd in

Judge. E ‘The role of tourism in the rcgion- al and urban economy’ Re,qionul .Sfudic~.t Axsociation Nrwslenc~r I YXY ( 164) “Henderson. I ‘The Northern Ireland cx- pcrience’ paper presented at the conler- cnce on ‘Tourism - il Vital Force foi Peace‘, Vancouver. C;mada. IYXX 15NITB Ar1r71& .Srrrti.~rics (vcarly) ‘“NITB lYY0 “Buckley. P J and Klemm. M ‘The dechnc of tourism in Northern Ireland - the GIUS~S Tourism Munqem~~nt 1901 14 (J) ‘XETBINITB/STBIWTB ;%c, 1 ‘k Ir,rtrr.\r (annual) “‘NIHCA .Suhnli.ssro,r /o I’our~srn Rct~rcw Group Northern Irclanc Hotclicrh zlnd Caterers Association Bclf;l\t. (IYXY) “‘Dcpartmcnt of Economic Development (NI) Tour/w in .Yorrhc,rn /rd~Ind: (I View fo rhe Fu/uw. HMSO. London ( I’IXY) “NITB Visitor Reporr (IWO) ‘2Krippcndorf. J /‘/I(, ilolrcicr~ ,MnXcrt Hcinemann. Oxlord ( lYX~7) “Pcarcc. P L. “l’ourihm-rcsidcnt impacts: cxamplcs, cxpl3n;itions ;md cmcrglng hoIll- tiom’ in Theobald. W (cd) Glohrrl 7intnvrn - ihe Nctf llrc~utic Buttcrworth- tlcincmann. Oxiortl ( IWI)

Tourism in Cuba in the 1990s: back to the future? In order to understand tourism in Cuba and what the situation of the tourism sector has been and will be in the future, it is necessary to define what the term tourism means for both the Cuban government and the Cuban people. For the Cuban government, it

means the development of foreign tourism for political purposes and not domestic tourism. In most countries today travel and tourism has strong linkages to cultural pursuits and pro- vides opportunities to increase world- wide understanding and mutual good- will. In Cuba it is different. In Cuba travel and tourism is an activity that allows the government to support its ideas through linkages to foreign policy initiatives. For the Cuban govcrn- ment this is the first and major purpose of tourism.

Travel and tourism is also seen as a

means of economic development by the Cuban government, but the Cuban people see this somewhat differently. For the Cuban people, tourism is synonymous with economic, social and environmental decline. They see

tourism as the only current alternative way to survive, the only way to feed and clothe themselves adequately. For example, Cuban nationals with the means to travel abroad try not to spend hard currency in foreign countries. Currency they obtain abroad (gifts, economic help. etc) is taken back to Cuba and used by them to pay living expenses.

Rebirth and growth of the Cuban tourism industry

Traditionally, travel and tourism in Cuba was one of the main economic sectors. In the pre-revolution period, the principal Caribbean destination was Cuba. In 19%. 272 266 foreign

tourists visited Cuba, but in lY50, the year of the revolution. tourism virtual- ly disappeared from Cuba. This was

an understandable reaction to the ex-

cessive negative social impacts of tour-

ism in Cuba before the revolution, when international tourism was based on prostitution and gambling in addition to sun. sand and $urf.’ In his lY60

Documents

Northern Ireland, tourism and peace