Northeast Regional Climate Center Dr. Art DeGaetano, Professor Department of EAS Director of the NOAA Northeast Climate Center, Cornell

Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Dr. Art DeGaetano, Professor Department of EAS Director of the NOAA Northeast Climate Center, Cornell University Climate Change in the Northeast U.S.

Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Global Average Annual Temperature Anomaly ( o F) From meteorological stations 1880-2005 Hansen et al. (2001) J. Geophysical Res. Vol 106, p. 23,947-23,963 Data from http://www.giss.nasa.gov/data/update/gistemp/

Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Time-series represents an areally weighted average of data from 56 stations in the Northeast that have been in operation continuously since 1900. Data from the NOAA-NCDC (ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushcn). Average Annual Temperature in the Northeast 1899-2000

Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Linear trend in annual temperature ( o F) from 1899-2000 for the Northeast. The change was estimated from a linear regression of annual average temperature for each station. Spatial Variation of Annual Temperature Trend 1899-2000

Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Average Winter Temperature in the Northeast 1899-2000 Time series represent areally weighted average of 56 meteorological stations.

Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Spatial Variation Winter Linear Temperature Trend 1970-2000 Linear trend in winter temperature ( o F) from 1970-2000 for the Northeast. The change was estimated from a linear regression of annual average temperature for each station.

Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Spatial Variation of Growing Season (32 o F) Trend 1970-2000 Linear trend in length of growing season (days) from 1970-2000 for New England. The change was estimated from a linear regression of annual average growing season length for each station.

Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Average Annual Precipitation in the Northeast, 1899-2000 Time series represent average of 79 meteorological stations in the Northeast.

Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu 16% 3% 23% 31% 15% 67% 20%

Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Extreme Precipitation Events (>2 in in 48 hrs)

Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Spatial Variation of Snowfall Trend 1970-2000 Linear trend in DJF snowfall s estimated from a linear regression of data for each station

Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Lake Effect

Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Spatial Variation of Days with Snow on Ground 1970-2000

Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Average Ice Out Day Trend 1925-2001 (27 Lakes) 6 days earlier over last 77 years 13 days earlier over last 30 years Ice Out Dates compiled by Hodgkins et al., 2002.

Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu

Dates of Center-of-Volume River Flow Smooths of the winter/spring (Jan 1 to May 31) center-of-volume dates for the 13 longest record, rural, unregulated rivers in New England (Hodgkins et al., 2003)

Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Lake Levels Erie Ontario

Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Sea Level Rise

Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Sea Surface Temperatures Gulf of Maine 1.1 o F warming over last 150 years 1.6 o F warming over last 150 years

Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu ECWS Frequency

Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Hurricane Frequency

Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu ClimAID: Integrated Assessment for Effective Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in New York State To provide New York State with cutting-edge information on its vulnerability to climate change and to facilitate the development of adaptation policies informed by both local experience and state-of-the-art scientific knowledge.

Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Sectors - Agriculture/Ecosystems - Coastal Zones - Energy - Public Health - Transportation/ Communication - Water Resources Key Themes - Climate Risks - Vulnerability - Adaptation Cross Cutting Elements - Science/Policy Linkages - Economic Policy Linkages - Environmental Justice

Seasonality

Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Quantitative Projections by Region: Mean Changes Region 6 Baseline 1971-2000 2020s2050s2080s Air temperature Min (Central Range) Max 44 F+ 0.5 (1.5 to 3.0) 4.0 F+ 2.5 (3.5 to 5.5) 7.5 F+ 3.0 (4.5 to 9.0) 10.5 F Precipitation Min (Central Range) Max 51 in- 5 (0 to + 5) 15 %-5 (0 to + 10) 15%-5 (+ 5 to 15) 20% 4 2 3 1 5 6 7 Region 5 Baseline 1 1971-2000 2020s2050s2080s Air temperature Min (Central Range) Max 2 50 F0.5 (1.5 to 3.0) 3.5 F2.5 (3.0 to 5.5) 7.5 F3.0 (4.0 to 8.0) 10.0 F Precipitation Min (Central Range) Max 51 in- 5 (0 to + 5) 10 %-5 (0 to + 10) 10 %0 (5 to 10) 15% Utica, Yorktown Heights, Saratoga Springs, Hudson Correctional Facility Boonville, Watertown

Sea level rise Source: CCSR Directly from GCMs No downscaling Thermal expansion Glacier melt Ice cap/ice sheet melt Local land sinking/subsidence Local water surface elevation

Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Sea level rise Source: CCSR Rapid ice melt based on paleoclimate data 20,000 10,000 0.39-0.47 in/yr Local modeling for Hudson to Troy river has low topographic gradient change at Battery = change at Albany

Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Source: CCSR NYC Troy New York City Baseline (1971-2000) 2020s2050s2080s Sea level rise (central range) NA+ 2 to 5 in+ 7 to 12 in+ 12 to 23 in Rapid Ice-Melt Sea level rise NA~ 5 to 10 in~ 19 to 29 in~ 41 to 55 in Troy Baseline (1971-2000) 2020s2050s2080s Sea level rise (Central range) NA+ 1 to 4 in+ 5 to 9 in+ 8 to 18 in Rapid Ice-Melt Sea level rise NA~ 4 to 9 in~ 17 to 26 in~ 37 to 50 in Sea level rise

Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Years Flooding -- relative contribution of rain vs pet will lead to floods or droughts, and uncertainty less snow / more rain larger storm rainfall amounts longer growing season ++ more ET/ drier soils + = ?

Water Quality

Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu INTEGRATING CLIMATE INTO LOCAL ADAPTATION DECISIONS

Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu About the NOAA Northeast Regional Climate Center at Cornell University

Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu NOAA Regional Climate Centers

Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Mission of the RCCs Facilitate the collection, dissemination, quality and use of climate data Monitor regional climate conditions and their impacts Conduct applied research

Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Web Presence

Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu climod.nrcc.cornell.edu

Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu 43 http://www.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=btv

Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu 44 AgACIS (Custom NRCS data and products) http://agacis.rcc-acis.org/

Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu 45 http://threadex.rcc-acis.org/

52 Map Navigation Tools GIS Tools Metadata

Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Operational Monitoring Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu/page_regional.html

Art DeGaetano: [email protected] (607) 255-0385 Questions?

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Northeast Regional Climate Center Dr. Art DeGaetano, Professor Department of EAS Director of the NOAA Northeast Climate Center, Cornell