North Carolina Agriculture

Blake Brown, PhDExtension Economist & Hugh C. Kiger Professor

Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics

North Carolina State University

Factors Impacting the U.S. Agriculture Outlook

• Immigration reform (by executive order or otherwise)

• Regulation: FDA, EPA….• Rising interest rates• Lower energy prices • Strengthening dollar• Weak economic recovery in Europe• “Know your food”

“Farms with direct sales to consumers were 6.9 percent of the nation’s 2.1 million farms in 2012, but those sales accounted for only 0.3 percent of total agriculture sales.” “Farmers Marketing” USDA 2012 Census of Agriculture

“USDA estimates that farm-level value of local food sales totaled about $4.8 billion in 2008,…”

Congressional Research Service

Value of NC Ag Direct Sales: $29.1 million in 2007 Census

What about growth in global demand for food?

“Current UN projections indicate that world population could increase by 2.25 billion people from today’s levels, reaching 9.15 billion by 2050. At the global level, agricultural production and consumption in 2050 are projected to be 60 percent higher than in 2005/07.” FAO

“Question your Assumptions” about Global Growth in demand says Michael Swanson, Wells Fargo Ag Economist & Senior VP•GNP growth drives demand not population growth•China GNP growth will be primary driver•Brazil has 470 million acres in untapped potential•Africa has 990 million acres in untapped potential….but is plagued by Political Instability and poor or no infrastructure

Factors Impacting the U.S. Agriculture Outlook

• China– Slowing economic growth in China– But increasing demand for meat

• Growing world population….• Growing world GNP….• Competition from Brazil• Competition from other regions???• Political conflict & Infrastructure

Urban Growth and NC Agriculture

Composition of NC Agriculture

Source: NC Ag Statistics Yearbook 2013

NC Agriculture is Diverse

Broilers 24.7%

Turkeys 6.1%

Dairy 1.9%

Livestock, Poultry and Dairy 2/3 of all NC Farm Receipts

Eggs 3.4%Cattle 2.6%

Specialty Crops 2012 Cash Receipts$ million

Tobacco $754

Sweet Potatoes $198

Peanuts $151

Christmas Trees $75

Blueberries $71Squash $37Potatoes $36Watermelons $35Strawberries $29Cucumbers $29

NC Agriculture’s Place in US Agriculture

Distribution of 2010 Cash Farm Receipts: Total Crops, Livestock and Government Payments

Source: NCDACS

Structure of NC farms

NC had 52,913 farms in 2007Average Farm Acreage: 160

Sales less than $250,000

Source: USDA-NASS

NC had 50,210 farms in 2012Average Farm Acreage: 168

Source: USDA-NASS

Type of Farm: Total SalesNC farms had total sales of $10.3 billion in 2007

Source: USDA-NASS

Type of Farm: Land in FarmsNC farms had 8.47 million acres of farm land in 2007

Source: USDA-NASS

Summary of NC Agriculture

• Very diverse agriculture• Many small farms, but also large diversified

farms• Characterized by vertically coordinated

contract hog & poultry sector• AND by very diverse specialty agriculture• Growing urban population with growth in

local foods