NORTH AMERICAN MARKET OUTLOOK - memafsg.com...recessions in 2016, although the outlook improves as stronger demand lifts exports, and a low basis supports stabilized domestic consumption

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NORTH AMERICAN MARKET OUTLOOK

Q3 2016

Charles ChesbroughExecutive Director: Research, Analysis and Senior EconomistOriginal Equipment Suppliers [email protected]

Bumps on the Road Ahead


Charles ChesbroughExecutive Director, Strategy, Research and Senior EconomistOriginal Equipment Suppliers Association (OESA)

Charles is a seasoned quantitative analyst and researcher with over 25 years of experience utilizing data to identify industry trends and opportunities.

Charles joined OESA in 2016 is managing the organization’s research and analysis initiatives, and provides guidance to members on the economic and industry outlook.

Charles comes to OESA after working at IHS Automotive for 10 years as Director of Industry Analysis and Senior Economist. At IHS, Charles was responsible for developing and integrating statistical models and economic scenarios into IHS global automotive forecasts. Charles also represented IHS forecasts and research to organizations, clients and media, and at professional seminars and international industry events.

Prior to IHS, Charles worked for Ford Motor Company's marketing strategy group as well as two technology start-up companies and two market research firms. He began his career as a floor trader at the Chicago Board of Trade.

Charles earned a bachelor’s degree in economics from the College of Business at Michigan State University and a master’s degree in applied economics from the University of Illinois at Chicago. He returned to Michigan State University and completed all courses for the economics PhD program.

Charles has won many economic forecasting accuracy awards and is a board member and former President of the Detroit Association for Business Economics and member of the National Association for Business Economics.

2

Introduction


• US Economic Outlook

• Status of Vehicle Demand and Supply

• Long-term Trends and Concerns

3

Agenda

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World UnitedStates

Japan EU 15 Brazil Russia India China

2014 2015 2016 2017

GDP Growth Rate %

World Average

World: Economic Growth RatesEmerging market slowdown having global implications

• Global economic growth expected to remain flat, near 3.0%, in 2016 – modest strength in mature markets continues to be offset by weakness in many large developing countries.

• Russia and Brazil facing continued, deep, self-inflicted recessions in 2016, although the outlook improves as stronger demand lifts exports, and a low basis supports stabilized domestic consumption.

• US and Eurozone expected to improve in 2017 as improving labor markets lifts incomes and leads to strong consumer spending growth.

• China’s economy slowing, and transition to domestic consumption focus has been difficult – hard landed not expected, but numerous threats in construction, export and banking sectors still large.

• Weak demand from many markets, plus too much supply from excess capacity, is creating a low inflation economy and is driving commodity prices lower.

• US/Mexico/Canada all closely linked – how US goes drives entire North American region.

Source: OECD Forecast


World: Commodity PricesGlobal economic weakness causing price declines; Likely to remain low until Russia/Brazil improve

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

West Texas Crude Oil (spot price)

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

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280

300

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Iron/Steel PPI Annual Change

Producer Price Index (Iron and Steel)

Sources: EIA, US Bureau of Labor Statistics


• Real GDP – Economic signals mixed; Consumer confidence and many sectors improving, but strong dollar hurting trade. Growth weaker this year; next year improves from consumer spending.

• Monetary Policy – FED expected to continue to raise interest rates, delayed by weak global conditions and US labor market. Key Question: Do rising wages support tightening?

• Fiscal Policy – Spending rising in 2016 thanks to recent budget deal, contributing to growth for first time in years, however the upcoming elections creating massive uncertainty, and another fiscal cliff approaching in December

• Consumption – Real consumer spending keeping economy out of recession - improving from higher net worth and wages, with low energy prices contributing.

• Housing – Plenty of recovery left to go (Starts only at 2/3 of pre-crash averages) however pace of growth now moderating as recovery enters later stage.

• Employment – Job creation slowing, but still positive. Initial claims at 40 year lows suggesting market tightening – should put upward pressure on wage rates.

• Foreign Trade – Strong dollar is hurting trade balances, a drag on the US economy through 2018.

1.4

1.9

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

Real GDP Growth (%)

US: Economic OutlookNo recession forecasted but possibility continues to rise

Source: Wells Fargo, Federal Reserve FOMC assumption


Income

SpendingJobs

Positive forces• Employment and Wealth growth• Low oil/gasoline prices• Robust credit conditions

Negative forces• Government and Student debt • Weak wage growth• Low labor participation rate

US: Economy Attempting Virtuous CycleHigher incomes…more spending…more jobs…more income…; not there yet


-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

US: ConsumptionSpending growth is strong and trending higher; tighter labor markets will continue to support

8

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (monthly, annual change)

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

Consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of US economic activity, and is now growth well

above overall economic growth rate of 2%. Other factors holding back GDP – not consumers.


US: Housing MarketLots of recovery to go for new construction; Home prices gaining steam

Source: US Census Bureau

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

Single-Family Multi-Family

Housing Starts (millions)

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

Median, Existing Houses Median, New Houses

Median Home Sale Price (thousand US$)

Existing Home prices now above pre-recession peaks; New Home prices much higher – demand

strong, new construction supply low

Source: US Census Bureau

Still far below pre-recession levels – lots of upside will

support more employment/spending

Multi-Family construction much greater share since recession


$1,354

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

13%

14%

15%

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Loans Outstanding - L Annual Growth - R

Total Student Loans Outstanding (millions US$)

Source: Federal Reserve, Student Loans Outstanding

Now over 1.3 trillion $, up 175% over last decade.

Growth rate decline - still high

Annual Growth

US: Debt Problems – Students and Uncle SamExplosion in debt hindering young buyers; Government debt impacting confidence and investment

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

-1,600,000

-1,400,000

-1,200,000

-1,000,000

-800,000

-600,000

-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Budget Deficit - L Total Debt % of GDP - R

Budget Balance (billions US$) Federal Debt % of GDP

Big Problem? Federal Debt $19 trillion, +$3 trillion State + Local

Or No Problem? Long term bond yields remain < 3%


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

$600

$650

$700

$750

$800

$850

$900

$950

$1,000

$1,050

$1,100

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

US: Non-Residential Fixed Investment Business is pulling back since Q3 2015 peak; Recession approaching? History suggests Yes

11

Real Gross Private Domestic Investment (billion US$, quarterly)


Business investment now contracting –collapse in energy sector having

significant implications.

Annual Change (quarterly, percent)

Historically, negative investment growth occurs during recessions. Recent data suggests

economy now re-entering contractionary period.


Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

US: Employment ConditionsEmployment conditions strong – concern is that economy doesn’t stay at these levels for long

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Initial Claims (4 week moving average)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Unemployment Rate (%)

3.8 years

5.6 9.8

11.16.5

9.6


Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

US: Job Market5.9 million openings; Quits rising too – workers gaining confidence, wages to follow

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2000

2005

2010

2015

Total Non-Farm Manufacturing

Openings: Jobs Open Per 100 Employed (3m average) Quits: Jobs Quit Per 100 Employed (3m average)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2000

2005

2010

2015

Total Non-Farm Manufacturing

Job opportunities strong – at 16 year highs – well above pre-recession levels

Quits continue to rise, although within manufacturing they remain relatively low. Higher worker confidence will

force business to raise wages to reduce turnover.


Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Production Non-supervisory

US: Labor Market WagesWage growth weak since recession; FED watching closely as a potential inflation “spark”

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

$20

$22

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Average Earnings $/hr - L Annual Change 3m avg - R

Average Hourly Earnings (monthly) Annual Change (3m average)

Average Annual Wage Growth

1986-2009: 3.2%2010-2016: 2.1%


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

Federal Funds%10-Year Treasury%30 yr Mortgage%

Effective Federal Funds Rate (%, overnight)

Source: IHS Economics, current quarterly forecast

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Key Interest Rate Forecasts (%)

FED raised rates during 1970s inflation, then lowered 1980-2015 to spur growth – never raised to

create growth

Global weakness + poor wage growth impacting rate decisions

Cost of borrowing to rise across economy

– vehicle affordability to

weaken.

US: Interest RatesPace of increases slowing due to weak wages and exports; FED walking a tightrope

Source: Federal Reserve Bank





16

Agenda


4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Total Car Light Truck

17

“Keep AmericaRolling” “Employee Pricing

For All”

“Cash ForClunkers”

Monthly Sales (SAAR, millions)


US: New Light Vehicle SalesPace has slowed since Q4, but still on track for record high

• Monthly sales SAAR fell to 16.9 in August from 17.9m in July. Sales have slowed significantly from Fall 2015 when market was moving at 18m pace.

• YTD sales up 0.5% - suggesting a record high of 17.5m in 2016: Light Truck sales up 8% while Car sales down 8.8% (only 38% share in August, 40% share YTD vs 45% last year)

• Light trucks leading market to record highs – popularity of new CUV products, coupled with low gas prices and strong buying conditions, supporting consumers’ purchases of larger, more expensive vehicles.

• Similar market seen in 2000s when rise of new SUVs, and strong incentive activity and robust housing sector, led consumers to choose light trucks over cars.

• Car share, which has fallen below 40% over recent months, should regain some ground as market slows in coming years. Consumers will seek affordability – lower purchase price and ownership costs – as gas prices and interest rates rise.


US: Housing Starts and Light Vehicle SalesSectors recovering at different speeds; housing has a long way to go

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Housing Starts - L LV Sales - R

Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Census Bureau

Housing Starts (thousands,12m avg) Light Vehicle Sales (millions,12m avg)

• Sectors are highly correlated – as expected: both expensive products requiring confident, employed buyers; dependent on interest rates

• Sectors’ timing has changed: Housing bubble in mid-2000s didn’t lift vehicle sales – they had already peaked years earlier

• Vehicle sales have had a strong V shaped recovery and have reached all time highs while housing still has a long way to go to reach previous peaks.

• More recovery in housing will only help vehicle sales – more construction jobs, more economic activity will support greater demand.


US: Consumer Sentiment and Light Vehicle SalesOptimism improving but still far below pre-2001

8

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10

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12

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18

60

65

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75

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100

105

110

1978

1980

1982

1984

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2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Consumer Sentiment - L LV Sales - R

Incentive Bubble

Consumer Sentiment (12m avg) Light Vehicle Sales (millions,12m avg)

Sources: University of Michigan sentiment survey, 1966=100, US Bureau of Economic Analysis

• A strong relationship exists between vehicle sales and consumer sentiment. Confidence is an important contributor to a robust vehicle market - potential buyers must be confident in their own economic situation before taking on a big purchase like a new vehicle.

• Vehicle sales now exceed pre-crisis levels while confidence still remains slightly behind, and is far below the levels seen in the late 1990s/early 2000s when a strong economy and record high equity markets ruled. In a post 9/11 world, confidence may never exceed previous peaks again.

• Labor agreements of early 2000s contributed to an “Incentive Bubble” for the industry due to the OEs’ price discount strategy: real demand fell, but Detroit 3 UAW contracts required labor be paid, utilized or not, less loss to build the vehicle and employ large discounts support sales


0%

10%

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100%

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

18,000,00019

8219

8419

8619

8819

9019

9219

9419

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9820

0020

0220

0420

0620

0820

1020

1220

14

VIO Count Survival Rate

VIO Count By Model Year

Source: IHS Automotive, survival rate=Polk registrations data/new sales

Survival Rate (Sales/Registrations)

At end of 2015:82% post MY 2000

Lots of higher quality, inexpensive vehicles

available to meet transportation needs

US: Vehicles In OperationsOver 260 million on the road; half-life is 16 years – 50% no longer registered after that point

0%

1%

2%

3%

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5%

6%

7%

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9

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16

2001

2002

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2007

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2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Estimated Scrappage Scrap Share of Parc

Millions of LVs Scrapped Scrappage Share of Parc


Source: IHS Automotive, <10K lbs, Polk used registrations

US: Light Vehicle Used MarketSales remain in the 37 million range, but prices weakening – will impact residual values

-6.0%

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

34,000,000

34,500,000

35,000,000

35,500,000

36,000,000

36,500,000

37,000,000

37,500,000

38,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total Growth

Used Registrations Annual Growth

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

New Annual Change Used Annual Change

Vehicle Prices (annual change)

Source: CPI, US Bureau of Labor Statistics


14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

24%

26%

28%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Lease Share Fleet Share

Lease and Fleet Share of New Registrations

Source: IHS Automotive, GVW<10K, Light Vehicle Registrations Data – March 2016

US: Lease and Fleet ShareLow monthly payments driving market success; Recent Fleet increases may be warning sign

• Leasing has been a driving force for the vehicle market’s recovery since the recession – now approaching 30% of all new sales.

• Strong used vehicle prices have supported strong residual values which has allowed for aggressive leasing –however used prices now weakening, increasing OEM leasing costs.

• Fleet sales – generally less profitable –have been less important during the recovery phase, however they have jumped in 2016, suggesting a need by OEMs to act more aggressively to reduce inventories.


-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

LV Sales Growth - L GDP Growth - R

23

US: Economic Growth and Light Vehicle SalesStrong relationship historically, but some divergence since 2009 recession

LV Sales Growth (quarterly, YOY) GDP Growth (quarterly, YOY)

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Sales growing at much faster rate since recession – new products, aggressive

financing lifting market above “normal”

Simple Regression Model:Each 1% economic growth lifts sales 3%, No growth – market contracts nearly 7%


US: Auto Loan Credit ConditionsCredit quality remains strong, but availability may be slowing down

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

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1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Loans Outstanding - L Annual Change - R

Motor Vehicle Loans Outstanding (billion $) Annual Change (%)

Source: Federal Reserve Bank, Quarterly Data, Source: Experian, monthly data

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

First Mortgage DefaultConsumer Credit DefaultAuto Loan Default

S&P/Experian Default Indices

Credit peaked in Q4 2005 –long before recession began

Low default rate may explain why auto credit has been so

strong since recession


-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Stronger Demand for Auto Loans

Tighter Standards for Auto Loans

Net

Res

pond

ents

“Ye

s”, i

n pe

rcen

t

Sources: Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Loan Officer Survey, 4 quarter average

$28,140

$24,500

$25,000

$25,500

$26,000

$26,500

$27,000

$27,500

$28,000

$28,500

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

US Average Amount Financed Auto Loan Availability

For a 4%, 5 year loan of $28K, each 1% increase in rates

adds $13 to monthly payment, or about $800 total.

FED rate increases may add $2,000+ over near-term

US: Borrowing Conditions VulnerableConsumers spending all loan “savings”; Banking survey suggests change is coming

Jumped from -3 to +8 last quarter


US: Light Vehicle Sales OutlookForecast varies among firms – if/when recession is key assumption

Annual Sales (millions)

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18

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2018

History PWC-Autofacts IHSMarket LMC Wells Fargo

• Year to date sales are up 0.5% over last year –at this pace sales will reach a new peak over 17.5m – however the pace has been slowing and many expect the second half of the year to be weaker than the first half.

• Forecasting firms are in general agreement on the current year, but the outlook varies greatly over the near-to-mid term.

• Some firms expect 2015 or 2016 to be the peak of this cycle with sales slowing from here due to higher oil prices, saturated market, less credit availability, and a mild recession next year.

• Other firms are more optimistic and expect sales to rise in 2017 and remain strong in 2018 with continued job creation, stronger wages, and low interest rates all supporting a robust market.

Trend: 1968-2008Rising 125K/year


0

4

8

12

16

20

24

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

1-Shift 2-Shift 3-Crew/Shift NA Production

Production Capacity by Shift

Source: IHS Automotive, variable capacity estimate and production forecast, July 2016

North America: Light Vehicle Production ForecastImportant trends emerging – more variable capacity and more Mexico share

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Canada Mexico US

Share of Region Production


US: Medium-Heavy Truck MarketTruck market peaked in 2015; Large expected to return to modest growth over near-term

Sales: Class 4-8 (000s, monthly, adjusted) N American Production (Class 4-8)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Jul-0

9

Jul-1

0

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1

Jul-1

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Jul-1

5

Jul-1

60

50,000

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250,000

300,000

350,000

2010

2011

2012

2013

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2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Class 8 Class 4-7


Supplier Barometer Index (SBI and 6m avg)

48

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Sep-

2006

Feb-

2007

Nov

-200

7

Sep-

2008

Jul-2

009

May

-201

0

Mar

-201

1

Jan-

2012

Nov

-201

2

Sep-

2013

Jul-2

014

May

-201

5

Apr-2

016

OESA Supplier Barometer: July ResultsSBI score falls to 48 – lowest level in four years; Business outlook trending lower

Source: OESA Supplier Barometer, July 2016

Euro Crisis

Begins

Japan Tsunami/

Grexit Crisis

US Fiscal Cliff

The Great Recession

Begins


Much more prepared

36%Somewhat

more prepared

42%

Equally prepared

21%

Somewhat less prepared

1%

30

Considering the last industry downturn and the steps taken in response, how prepared is your organization to

adjust should another downturn occur in the future?

OESA Supplier Barometer: Downturn PreparationNearly 4 of 5 respondents state their business is better prepared for the next downturn

Comments:

• Our business is more diversified, not so reliant on a single industry

• Experience has taught us we can go much deeper (cost cutting) than originally thought

• We were well prepared last time and continue to keep contingency plans in place

Source: OESA Supplier Barometer, July 2016





31

Agenda


Source: IHS Automotive, survival rate=Polk registrations data/new sales

World: Light Vehicle Penetration RatesRising incomes from economic development are critical to vehicle sales

Russia

China

India

Japan

South Korea

Canada

Mexico

United States

Australia

Brazil

France

Germany

Italy

Spain United Kingdom

0

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900

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000

Source: IHS Automotive, CY2015

Vehi

cles

In U

se P

er 1

000

Peop

le

Real GDP Per Capita

Vehicle Development Path:Higher incomes creates strong

demand/need for personal transportation

S AmericaAsiaMEA

Eastern/ Central Europe

Mature Markets

Join. Engage. Advance.33

Economic development

City of Today

Peak car?Mature-market track

Weak car?Emerging-market track

Vehi

cle

dens

ity

Rural path

City of Tomorrow?

Source: IHS Automotive

• Social media• Rising ownership costs• Congestion• Technology• Autonomous vehicles• Share economyAll impacting need/desire for personal transportation

Economic Development - Vehicle Penetration PathNeed and desire for transportation changing; paradigm shift occurring?


1.0

1.21.3

1.7

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1.8

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Passenger CarsPass Cars + LD and HD Trucks

Vehicles In Operation (in billions)

Source: IHS Economics, Vehicles in Use Forecast

World: Vehicles in OperationEconomic development creating new consumers – and they want/need transportation

262

165

7548 38 31 40 45

0

50

100

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350

Uni

ted

Stat

es

Chi

na

Japa

n

Ger

man

y

Fran

ce

Indi

a

Braz

il

Rus

sia

Total LV in Operation (2005 – 2022, millions)


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90

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2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

New BuyersUsed BuyersAll

Average Length of Ownership (months)

Source: IHS Automotive, Light Vehicle Registrations Data

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

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1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Miles Traveled - L Miles Per Person - R

Source: Dept. of Transportation

Miles Traveled (trillions) Per Person Usage (000s)

Usage remains muted since recession – still recovering

US: Consumer Behavior ChangingConsumers “investing”: keeping vehicles longer and using them less


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Sources: IHS Automotive, U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration Statistics, LV+HV

Motor Vehicles in Use Per 1000 People

Great Depression World War 2

Great RecessionGulf War I

No One Two 3+vehicles vehicle vehicles vehicles

1960 21.5% 56.9% 19.0% 2.5%1970 17.5% 47.7% 29.3% 5.5%1980 12.9% 35.5% 34.0% 17.5%1990 11.5% 33.7% 37.4% 17.3%2000 9.4% 33.8% 38.6% 18.3%2010 9.1% 33.8% 37.6% 19.5%

US Census Household Ownership Survey ?

DisruptiveTechnology

Shared/Autonomous TechnologiesOwnership Impact:

US has experienced rapid changes before –1960s to 1980s the largest

Today: If 10% of households changed categories, ownership quickly reverts to 1980 levels – no car households rise by 5 million

US: Vehicle OwnershipAmerica loves cars – does the romance continue?

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NORTH AMERICAN MARKET OUTLOOK - memafsg.com...recessions in 2016, although the outlook improves as stronger demand lifts exports, and a low basis supports stabilized domestic consumption