Non traditional security

NonNon--Traditional Security :Traditional Security :NonNon--Traditional Security : Traditional Security : Trends and IssuesTrends and Issues

Deputy Director of Strategic Studies and Research DivisionStrategic Studies Center, National Defence Studies Institute

Royal Thai Armed Forces Headquarter

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Royal Thai Armed Forces HeadquarterMobile: 09-893-3126, Web Site: http://tortaharn.net

[email protected], [email protected]

O tliO tliOutlineOutlineF i th N Ch ll d IF i th N Ch ll d I•• Facing the New Challenges and IssuesFacing the New Challenges and Issues

•• Thailand’s NonThailand’s Non--Traditional Security Challenges Traditional Security Challenges y gy g•• Risk and Impact Risk and Impact AnalysisAnalysis•• Thailand’s NonThailand’s Non Traditional Security IssuesTraditional Security Issues•• Thailand s NonThailand s Non--Traditional Security IssuesTraditional Security Issues•• Lessons and LearnLessons and Learn•• ConclusionsConclusions

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Source : Dr. Suvit Maesincee - Thailand in the New Global Landscape3
























The End of NationThe End of Nation--State?State?



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Thailand’s NTS Challenges

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Thailand’s NTS ChallengesThailand s NTS Challenges

• Political Turmoil

I• Insurgency• Poverty• Poverty• Drug / Narcotic ThreatsDrug / Narcotic Threats

• Infectious Diseases / Pandemics• Illegal Migration / Human Trafficking

• Terrorism 35

Thailand’s NTS Challenges (con’t)Thailand s NTS Challenges (con t)

• Energy SecurityF d S it• Food Security

• Disaster• Disaster• Transnational CrimesTransnational Crimes

• Economy Instability

• Environmental Degradation

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Risk and Impact AnalysisRisk and Impact Analysis

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Risk and Impact AnalysisRisk and Impact Analysis The Vital Concern

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The Vital Concern of Thailand’s NTS

• Political Turmoil

• Insurgency

** The Rest Issues will be provided in the pother session 39

Thailand’s NTS IssuesThailand’s NTS Issues

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Political TurmoilPolitical TurmoilCauses of ConflictCauses of Conflict 41

Pareto AnalysisPareto Analysis

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Clash between Clash between Conservative & ProgressiveConservative & ProgressiveConservative & ProgressiveConservative & Progressive

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Security Sector Governance (SSG)Security Sector Governance (SSG)

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Groups of Power in ThailandGroups of Power in Thailand

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Equilibrium State for Thai SocietyEquilibrium State for Thai Society

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Thailand’s Southern Provinces Thailand’s Southern Provinces InsurgencyInsurgency

Causes of ConflictCauses of Conflict

Asymmetric WarfareAsymmetric Warfare

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Causes of ConflictCauses of Conflict

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Conflict and ComplicationConflict and ComplicationConflict and ComplicationConflict and Complication

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A Solution in the Past

Phase I : Sponsor Block

Phase II : Military Push

Phase III : Forgive and Forget

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A Conceptp

“P liti l L di“Political Leading

th Milit O ti ”the Military Operations”

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An Ultimate Gold

“All Thais are living together in the

f l d H i ti ”peaceful way and Harmonization.”

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A Conceptp

“S i lt L di“Socioculture Leading

th Milit O ti ”the Military Operations”

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A Solution Framework

Phase I : Stabilize

Phase II : Strike Back

Ph III H iPhase III : Harmonize

Ph IV S t iPhase IV : Sustain

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A Solution Driven

“All Thais are

Social

All Thais are living together in the peaceful way

and

Social&

&Economic

and Harmonization.”

Social &Military

• Phase IV• Sustain

&Political

• Phase III• Harmonize

• Phase II• Strike Back

Military

• Phase I• Stabilize 63

Insurgency Conclusionsg y

• Cause of the insurgency is not the religious• Cause of the insurgency is not the religious.

• The contexts of Thailand’s southern provinces are• The contexts of Thailand s southern provinces are

causes of the insurgency.causes of the insurgency.

• It takes time to come to an end (more than 10

years).

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Conclusions Conclusions 65


Last WordsLast Words

“The world is not dangerous “The world is not dangerous because of those who do harm because of those who do harm because o t ose o do abecause o t ose o do a

but because of those who look at but because of those who look at it without doing anything.”it without doing anything.”g y gg y g

Albert Einstein

Hence, we must cooperate to make the world a Hence, we must cooperate to make the world a i i i i ii i i i ibetter place to live in and we will consider it our better place to live in and we will consider it our

mission to assist our country and the world. mission to assist our country and the world.

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Non traditional security