Non-life insurance services

1

UN STATISTICS DIVISION Economic Statistics Branch

National Accounts Section

UNSD/ECA National accounts workshop November 2005

Background

Catastrophic events generate massive claims on non-life insurance companies.

Mechanical use of the current SNA formula for non life insurance services may lead to absurd movements in production and consumption of insurance services in current prices in the national accounts.

Some NA compilers neutralize these effects.

The task force on the measurement of non life insurance

Proposed changes that the AEG mostly has agreed.

General principle

The concept of insurance service is the service of covering risk. The measurement of insurance services should not be affected by the volatility of the occurrence of risk.

Neither the volume nor the price of insurance services should be directly affected by the volatility of the claims.

Main recommendation

Continue to use the same formula for output but with adjusted premium earned and adjusted claims incurred to correct for the volatility of observed flows or negative output.

Output = Adjusted premium earned - Adjusted claims incurred

Capital transfer must be introduced to maintain the same saving of every sector in the economy.

3 practical ways of implementation

Expectation approach Accounting approach Sum of costs plus ‘normal’ profit

approach

The AEG recommends reference to these three solutions in the updated SNA.

Expectation approach

Replicating ex-ante models used by the insurers to price premiums, based on expectations for claims and income.

Use of micro data or smoothing past data for claims and premium supplements.

Formula for output Actual premiums earned

+ Expected (adjusted) premium supplements – expected (adjusted) claims incurred

Expectation approach

U.S. method: For each type of insurance, premium supplements will be calculated as

geometric-weighted moving average of past investment gain/loss multiplied by the premiums earned during the current period.

PSt = NIRt * Pt

NIRt = IRt + (1- ) * IRt-1 + (1 –)2 * IRt-2 + …..

PSt = Premium supplement in period t Pt = Premium earnedNIRt = Normal Investment Ratio IRt = Investment Ratio – that is It / Pt

parameter = 0.3 (based on the evidence that it provides best prediction of future values)

Accounting approach

Consists of (1) Extending the scope of technical

reserves (provisions)(2) Applying an extended formula

including, when necessary, changes in own funds

Formula for output Premiums earned + premium supplements - (claims incurred + addition to, less

withdrawal from equalization provisions + additions to, less withdrawal from own funds)

Sum of costs and “normal” profit approach

“ Normal” profit can be estimated based on smoothed past actual profits.

The approach is in practice similar to the expectation approach.

Adjustment in the insurance company accounts

Claims incurred 27 Premiums earned 22

Output 2 Premium supplements 7

Adjusted claims 19 Premiums earned 22

Output 10 Adjusted Premium supplements 7

Adjusted method

Traditional method

Adjustment in the SNA account of insurance company

Production cost 2 Output 2

Claims incurred 27 Net premium earned 27

Saving 0

Traditional method

Adjusted method

Production cost 2 Output 10

Claims incurred 19 Net premium earned 19

Capital transfer 8

Saving 0 

Other changes Treating reinsurance gross (same formula as for

direct insurance) → insurance service as intermediate consumption (now consolidated)

Excluding income from own funds from premium supplements and income to policy holders

Include equalization provisions and other special provisions in SNA’s definition of provisions for unearned premiums and claims outstanding.

Commission and rebates as negative premiums

Profit sharing and bonuses as other income transfers

Change in terminology: Technical reserves → Technical provisions,

Claims due → Claims incurred

Thank You