Non FIT Ginatilan Financial Model

GINATILAN INITIAL 50MW WINDFARM PROJECT FINANCIAL MODEL (Non-FIT-REGULAR ENERGY SUPPLY)

GINATILAN CEBU WINDFARM

Training & Support

Units: Metric

Site Conditions Estimate Notes/RangeProject name GINATILAN INITIAL 50MW WINDFARM PROJECT See Online ManualProject location Ginatilan Cebu, PhilippinesWind data source Wind speedNearest location for weather data PAGASA Cebu City See Weather DatabaseAnnual average wind speed m/s 6.6Height of wind measurement m 80.0 3.0 to 100.0 mWind shear exponent - 0.25 0.10 to 0.40Wind speed at 10 m m/s 4.0Average atmospheric pressure kPa 101.3 60.0 to 103.0 kPaAnnual average temperature °C 28 -20 to 30 °C

System Characteristics Estimate Notes/RangeGrid type - Central-gridWind turbine rated power kW 2000Number of turbines - 25Wind plant capacity kW 50,000Hub height m 90.0 6.0 to 100.0 mWind speed at hub height m/s 6.8 Wind power density at hub height W/m² 334Array losses % 0% 0% to 20%Airfoil soiling and/or icing losses % 1% 1% to 10%Other downtime losses % 2% 2% to 7%Miscellaneous losses % 2% 2% to 6%

Estimate EstimateAnnual Energy Production Per Turbine Total Notes/Range

Wind plant capacity kW 2,000 50,000MW 2.000 50.000

Unadjusted energy production MWh 7,795 194,882 Pressure adjustment coefficient - 1.00 1.00 0.59 to 1.02 Temperature adjustment coefficient - 0.96 0.96 0.98 to 1.15Gross energy production MWh 7,483 187,087 Losses coefficient - 0.95 0.95 0.75 to 1.00Specific yield kWh/m² 749 749 150 to 1,500 kWh/m²Wind plant capacity factor % 41% 41% 20% to 40%Renewable energy delivered MWh 7,115 177,881

kWh 7,115,260 177,881,489

Version 3.2 © Minister of Natural Resources Canada 1997-2005. NRCan/CETC - Varennes

Complete Equipment Data sheet

Complete Cost Analysis sheet

RETScreen® Energy Model - Wind Energy Project

2/3/2015; Non-FIT-Ginatilan Financial Model.xls

RETScreen® Equipment Data - Wind Energy Project

Wind Turbine Characteristics Estimate Notes/RangeWind turbine rated power kW 2000 See Product DatabaseHub height m 90.0 6.0 to 100.0 mRotor diameter m 110 7 to 80 mSwept area m² 9,499 35 to 5,027 m²Wind turbine manufacturer CNYDWind turbine model YDF-2000-110Energy curve data source - Custom Weibull wind distributionShape factor - 2.2 1.0 to 3.0

Wind Turbine Production Data

Wind speed Power curve data Energy curve data(m/s) (kW) (MWh/yr)

0 0.0 -1 0.0 -2 0.0 -3 2.9 702.94 104.3 2,075.95 266.3 4,058.26 507.2 6,216.27 841.4 8,204.98 1,284.5 9,888.19 1,807.8 11,252.310 2,050.1 12,320.511 2,050.1 13,112.612 2,050.1 13,642.213 2,050.1 13,926.014 2,050.1 13,989.815 2,050.1 13,867.016 2,050.1 -17 2,050.1 -18 2,050.1 -19 2,050.1 -20 2,050.1 -21 2,050.1 -22 2,050.1 -23 2,050.1 -24 2,050.1 -25 2,050.1 -

Return toEnergy Model sheet


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RETScreen® Cost Analysis - Wind Energy Project

Type of analysis: Feasibility Currency: $ $ Cost references: NoneSecond currency: Denmark DKK Rate: $/DKK 0.17900

Initial Costs (Credits) Unit Quantity Unit Cost Amount Relative Costs Quantity Range Unit Cost RangeFeasibility Study

Site investigation p-d 90.0 1,500$ 135,000$ - -Wind resource assessment met tower 1 100,000$ 100,000$ - -Environmental assessment p-d 90.0 1,000$ 90,000$ - -Preliminary design p-d 90.0 2,000$ 180,000$ - -Detailed cost estimate p-d 90.0 1,000$ 90,000$ - -GHG baseline study and MP project 1 30,000$ 30,000$ - -Report preparation p-d 90.0 1,000$ 90,000$ - -Project management p-d 90.0 2,500$ 225,000$ - -Travel and accommodation p-trip 40 2,000$ 80,000$ - -pre-feasibility study Cost 1 200,000$ 200,000$ - -

Sub-total: 1,220,000$ 1.1%Development

PPA negotiation p-d 90.0 1,000$ 90,000$ - -Permits and approvals p-d 90.0 2,000$ 180,000$ - -Land rights project 1 50,000$ 50,000$ - -Land survey p-d 90.0 1,500$ 135,000$ - -GHG validation and registration project 1 30,000$ 30,000$ - -Project financing p-d 90.0 1,000$ 90,000$ - -Legal and accounting p-d 300.0 100$ 30,000$ - -Project management p-yr 1.00 600,000$ 600,000$ - -Travel and accommodation p-trip 40 2,000$ 80,000$ - -Other - Development Cost 1 50,000$ 50,000$ - -

Sub-total: 1,335,000$ 1.2%Engineering

Wind turbine(s) micro-siting p-d 90.0 2,500$ 225,000$ - -Mechanical design p-d 90.0 2,500$ 225,000$ - -Electrical design p-d 90.0 2,000$ 180,000$ - -Civil design p-d 90.0 2,500$ 225,000$ - -Tenders and contracting p-d 90.0 1,500$ 135,000$ - -Construction supervision p-yr 1.00 500,000$ 500,000$ - -Other - Engineering Cost -$ - -

Sub-total: 1,490,000$ 1.3%Energy Equipment

Wind turbine(s) kW 50,000 1,100$ 55,000,000$ - -Spare parts % 5.0% 55,000,000$ 2,750,000$ - -Transportation turbine 25 400,000$ 10,000,000$ - -Other - Energy equipment Cost 50 200,000$ 10,000,000$ - -

Sub-total: 77,750,000$ 70.4%Balance of Plant

Wind turbine(s) foundation(s) turbine 25 350,000$ 8,750,000$ - -Wind turbine(s) erection turbine 25 350,000$ 8,750,000$ - -Road construction km 8.00 200,000$ 1,600,000$ - -Transmission line km 8.00 300,000$ 2,400,000$ - -Substation project 1 3,000,000$ 3,000,000$ - -Control and O&M building(s) building 1 200,000$ 200,000$ - -Transportation project 1 100,000$ 100,000$ - -Other - Balance of plant Cost 50 40,000$ 2,000,000$ - -

Sub-total: 26,800,000$ 24.3%Miscellaneous

Training p-d 90.0 1,500$ 135,000$ - -Commissioning p-d 60.0 2,250$ 135,000$ - -Contingencies % 2% 108,865,000$ 1,632,975$ - -Interest during construction 0.0% 110,497,975$ -$ - -

Sub-total: 1,902,975$ 1.7%Initial Costs - Total 110,497,975$ 100.0%

Annual Costs (Credits) Unit Quantity Unit Cost Amount Relative Costs Quantity Range Unit Cost RangeO&M

Land lease project 1 173,333$ 173,333$ - -Property taxes project 0 -$ -$ - -Insurance premium project 1 552,490$ 552,490$ - -Transmission line maintenance % 5.0% 5,400,000$ 270,000$ - -Parts and labour kWh 177,881,489 0.003$ 533,644$ - -GHG monitoring and verification project 1 15,000$ 15,000$ - -Community benefits project 1 257,777$ 257,777$ - -Travel and accommodation p-trip 85 1,000$ 85,000$ - -General and administrative % 10% 1,887,245$ 188,724$ - -Other - O&M Cost 1 18,000$ 18,000$ - -Contingencies % 10% 2,093,969$ 209,397$ - -

Annual Costs - Total 2,303,366$ 100.0%

Periodic Costs (Credits) Period Unit Cost Amount Interval Range Unit Cost RangeDrive train Cost 10 yr -$ -$ - -Blades Cost 15 yr -$ -$ - -

-$ - -End of project life Credit - -$ -$


Go to GHG Analysis sheet


RETScreen® Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emission Reduction Analysis - Wind Energy Project

Use GHG analysis sheet? Yes Type of analysis: StandardPotential CDM project? Yes Use simplified baseline methods? No

Background Information

Project Information Global Warming Potential of GHG Project name GINATILAN INITIAL 50MW WINDFProject capacity 50.00 MW 21 tonnes CO2 = 1 tonne CH4 (IPCC 1996)Project location Ginatilan Cebu, Philippines Grid type Central-grid 310 tonnes CO2 = 1 tonne N2O (IPCC 1996)

Base Case Electricity System (Baseline)

Fuel type Fuel mix CO2 emission factor

CH4 emission factor

N2O emission factor

T & Dlosses

GHG emission factor

(%) (kg/GJ) (kg/GJ) (kg/GJ) (%) (tCO2/MWh)100.0% 94.6 0.0020 0.0030 12.0% 1.117

0.0 0.0000 0.0000 12.0% 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000

Electricity mix 100% 307.1 0.0065 0.0097 12.0% 1.117

Does baseline change during project life? No Change in GHG emission factor % -20.0%

Proposed Case Electricity System (Wind Energy Project)

Fuel type Fuel mix CO2 emission factor

CH4 emission factor

N2O emission factor

T & Dlosses

GHG emission factor

(%) (kg/GJ) (kg/GJ) (kg/GJ) (%) (tCO2/MWh)Electricity system

Wind 100.0% 0.0 0.0000 0.0000 12.0% 0.000

GHG Emission Reduction Summary

Base case Proposed case End-use GHG credits Net annualGHG emission GHG emission annual energy transaction GHG emission

factor factor delivered fee reduction(yr) (tCO2/MWh) (tCO2/MWh) (MWh) (%) (tCO2)

Electricity system 1 to 4 1.117 0.000 156,536 0.0% 174,862

Version 3.2 © United Nations Environment Programme & Minister of Natural Resources Canada 2000 - 2005. UNEP/DTIE and NRCan/CETC - Varennes

CoalLarge hydro

Years of occurence

35.0%

Complete Financial Summary sheet

Fuel conversion efficiency

(%)

100.0%

Fuel conversion efficiency

(%)

100.0%

Complete Financial Summary sheet

Gross annualGHG emission

(tCO2)174,862

reduction


RETScreen® Financial Summary - Wind Energy Project

Annual Energy Balance Yearly Cash FlowsYear Pre-tax After-tax Cumulative

Project nameGINATILAN INITIAL 50MW WINDFARM PROJECT Peak load kW Central-grid # $ $ $Project location Ginatilan Cebu, Philippines Grid energy demand MWh - 0 (110,497,975) (110,497,975) (110,497,975) Renewable energy delivered MWh 177,881 Net GHG reduction tCO2/yr 174,862 1 23,405,252 23,405,252 (87,092,723) Excess RE available MWh - Net GHG reduction - yr 5 + beyond tCO2/yr 174,862 2 23,334,078 23,334,078 (63,758,645) Firm RE capacity kW - Net GHG emission reduction - 25 yrs tCO2 4,371,554 3 23,260,769 23,260,769 (40,497,876) Grid type Central-grid Net GHG emission reduction - 25 yrs tCO2 4,371,554 4 23,185,260 23,185,260 (17,312,616)

5 23,107,487 23,107,487 5,794,871 Financial Parameters 6 23,027,380 23,027,380 28,822,251

7 22,944,869 22,944,869 51,767,120 Avoided cost of energy $/kWh 0.1400 Debt ratio % 0.0% 8 22,859,884 21,014,185 72,781,305 RE production credit $/kWh - Debt interest rate % 4.0% 9 22,772,349 20,847,345 93,628,650 RE production credit duration yr 25 Debt term yr 5 10 22,682,188 20,695,754 114,324,404 RE credit escalation rate % 2.5% 11 22,589,322 20,555,818 134,880,221 GHG emission reduction credit $/tCO2 5.0 Income tax analysis? yes/no Yes 12 22,493,670 20,424,645 155,304,866 GHG reduction credit duration yr 25 Effective income tax rate % 10.0% 13 22,395,148 20,299,907 175,604,774 GHG credit escalation rate % 0.0% Loss carryforward? - Yes 14 22,293,671 20,179,723 195,784,497 Avoided cost of excess energy $/kWh - Depreciation method - Declining balance 15 22,189,150 20,062,570 215,847,067 Avoided cost of capacity $/kW-yr 120 Depreciation tax basis % 95.0% 16 22,081,493 19,947,212 235,794,279 Energy cost escalation rate % 0.0% Depreciation rate % 20.0% 17 21,970,606 19,832,640 255,626,919 Inflation % 3.0% Depreciation period yr 15 18 21,856,392 19,718,029 275,344,948 Discount rate % 7.0% Tax holiday available? yes/no yes 19 21,738,753 19,602,698 294,947,646 Project life yr 25 Tax holiday duration yr 7 20 21,617,584 19,486,082 314,433,727

21 21,492,780 19,367,707 333,801,434 Project Costs and Savings 22 21,364,231 19,247,172 353,048,607

23 21,231,827 19,124,135 372,172,742 Initial Costs Annual Costs and Debt 24 21,095,450 18,998,298 391,171,040

Feasibility study 1.1% $ 1,220,000 O&M $ 2,303,366 25 20,954,982 18,909,056 410,080,096 Development 1.2% $ 1,335,000 Fuel/Electricity $ - 26 - - 410,080,096 Engineering 1.3% $ 1,490,000 Debt payments - 5 yrs $ - 27 - - 410,080,096 Energy equipment 70.4% $ 77,750,000 Annual Costs and Debt - Total $ 2,303,366 28 - - 410,080,096 Balance of plant 24.3% $ 26,800,000 29 - - 410,080,096 Miscellaneous 1.7% $ 1,902,975 Annual Savings or Income 30 - - 410,080,096

Initial Costs - Total 100.0% $ 110,497,975 Energy savings/income $ 24,903,409 31 - - 410,080,096 Capacity savings/income $ - 32 - - 410,080,096

Incentives/Grants $ - RE production credit income - 25 yrs $ - 33 - - 410,080,096 GHG reduction income - 25 yrs $ 874,311 34 - - 410,080,096

Annual Savings - Total $ 25,777,719 35 - - 410,080,096 Periodic Costs (Credits) 36 - - 410,080,096 # Drive train $ - Schedule yr # 10,20 37 - - 410,080,096 # Blades $ - Schedule yr # 15 38 - - 410,080,096 # $ - Schedule yr # 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0 39 - - 410,080,096

End of project life - Credit $ - Schedule yr # 25 40 - - 410,080,096 41 - - 410,080,096

Financial Feasibility 42 - - 410,080,096 Calculate energy production cost? yes/no Yes 43 - - 410,080,096

Pre-tax IRR and ROI % 20.7% Energy production cost $/kWh 0.0667 44 - - 410,080,096 After-tax IRR and ROI % 20.1% Calculate GHG reduction cost? yes/no Yes 45 - - 410,080,096 Simple Payback yr 4.7 GHG emission reduction cost $/tCO2 (69) 46 - - 410,080,096 Year-to-positive cash flow yr 4.7 Project equity $ 110,497,975 47 - - 410,080,096 Net Present Value - NPV $ 140,598,302 Project debt $ - 48 - - 410,080,096 Annual Life Cycle Savings $ 12,064,813 Debt payments $/yr - 49 - - 410,080,096 Benefit-Cost (B-C) ratio - 2.27 Debt service coverage - No debt 50 - - 410,080,096


2/3/2015;Non-FIT-Ginatilan Financial Model.xls

RETScreen® Financial Summary - Wind Energy Project

Cumulative Cash Flows Graph

Wind Energy Project Cumulative Cash FlowsGINATILAN INITIAL 50MW WINDFARM PROJECT, Ginatilan Cebu, Philippines

Renewable energy delivered (MWh/yr): 177,881 Total Initial Costs: $ 110,497,975 Net average GHG reduction (tCO2/yr): 174,862

IRR and ROI: 20.1% Year-to-positive cash flow: 4.7 yr Net Present Value: $ 140,598,302


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2/3/2015;Non-FIT-Ginatilan Financial Model.xls

RETScreen® Sensitivity and Risk Analysis - Wind Energy Project

Use sensitivity analysis sheet? Yes Perform analysis onPerform risk analysis too? Yes Sensitivity rangeProject name GINATILAN INITIAL 50MW WINDFARM PROJECT Threshold 15.0 %Project location Ginatilan Cebu, Philippines

Sensitivity Analysis for After-tax IRR and ROI

Avoided cost of energy ($/kWh)RE delivered 0.1120 0.1260 0.1400 0.1540 0.1680

(MWh) 20% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%142,305 -20% 11.4% 13.4% 15.4% 17.3% 19.2%160,093 -10% 13.4% 15.6% 17.8% 19.9% 22.0%177,881 0% 15.4% 17.8% 20.1% 22.5% 24.8%195,670 10% 17.3% 19.9% 22.5% 25.0% 27.5%213,458 20% 19.2% 22.0% 24.8% 27.5% 30.3%

Avoided cost of energy ($/kWh)Initial costs 0.1120 0.1260 0.1400 0.1540 0.1680

($) 0.2 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%88,398,380 -20% 19.8% 22.7% 25.6% 28.4% 31.3%99,448,178 -10% 17.3% 20.0% 22.6% 25.1% 27.7%110,497,975 0% 15.4% 17.8% 20.1% 22.5% 24.8%121,547,773 10% 13.7% 16.0% 18.1% 20.3% 22.4%132,597,570 20% 12.3% 14.4% 16.4% 18.4% 20.4%

Avoided cost of energy ($/kWh)Annual costs 0.1120 0.1260 0.1400 0.1540 0.1680

($) 0.2 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%1,842,693 -20% 15.9% 18.3% 20.7% 23.0% 25.3%2,073,030 -10% 15.6% 18.0% 20.4% 22.7% 25.0%2,303,366 0% 15.4% 17.8% 20.1% 22.5% 24.8%2,533,703 10% 15.1% 17.5% 19.9% 22.2% 24.5%2,764,040 20% 14.8% 17.2% 19.6% 21.9% 24.3%

GHG emission reduction credit ($/tCO2)Net GHG emission reduction - 25 yrs 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0

(tCO2) 0.2 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%3,497,244 -20% 19.8% 19.9% 20.0% 20.0% 20.1%3,934,399 -10% 19.9% 20.0% 20.1% 20.1% 20.2%4,371,554 0% 20.0% 20.1% 20.1% 20.2% 20.3%4,808,710 10% 20.0% 20.1% 20.2% 20.3% 20.4%5,245,865 20% 20.1% 20.2% 20.3% 20.4% 20.5%


After-tax IRR and ROI20%


RETScreen® Sensitivity and Risk Analysis - Wind Energy Project

Risk Analysis for After-tax IRR and ROI

Parameter Unit Value Range (+/-) Minimum MaximumAvoided cost of energy $/kWh 0.1400 15% 0.1190 0.1610RE delivered MWh 177,881 15% 151,199 204,564Initial costs $ 110,497,975 20% 88,398,380 132,597,570Annual costs $ 2,303,366 15% 1,957,861 2,648,871GHG emission reduction credit $/tCO2 5.0 50% 2.5 7.5

Impact on After-tax IRR and ROI

Effect of increasing the value of the parameter

Median % 20.1%Level of risk % 5%Minimum within level of confidence % 15.7%Maximum within level of confidence % 24.6%

Distribution of After-tax IRR and ROI

After-tax IRR and ROI (%)

0.0% of cases have an after-tax IRR and ROI not defined.

Minimum Maximum2.5% 2.5%

15.7% 24.6%


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Non FIT Ginatilan Financial Model