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Nobody’s Unpredictable© 2011 Ipsos Canadian Public Affairs All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
The Economic Pulse of the World -- Canada in a Global ContextCitizens in 24 Countries Assess the Current State of their Country’s Economy
Canadian Public Affairs October 2011
Public PerspectivesPublic Perspectives
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Canadian Public Affairs Public Perspectives – October 2011 – The Economic Pulse
Contents and Ipsos Reid Public Affairs Canada
A little about us… Ipsos Reid Public Affairs conducts strategic research in partnership with clients to understand and manage issues,
advance reputations, determine and pinpoint shifts in attitude and opinion, enhance communications, and evaluate policy. Strategic advice is the key deliverable. We provide clients with advice that goes beyond reporting on data, based on a concrete understanding of their issues and their context. We specialize in:
– Public Sector Research Government and Social Program Evaluation /Performance Measurement Not-for-Profit Municipal
– International Trends– Public Opinion Polling for Media Release– Reputation & Risk Management
For more information about this report or Canadian Public Affairs please contact: – Mike Colledge, President, Canadian Public Affairs, 613-688-8971, [email protected]– Chris Martyn, Chief Research Officer/Managing Director, 416-324-2010, [email protected]– Alexandra Evershed, Senior Vice President Ottawa, 613-688-8972, [email protected]– Sandra Guiry, VP and Manager Toronto, 416-324-2018, [email protected]– Kyle Braid, VP and Manager Western Canada, 778-373-5130, [email protected]
Visit www.ipsos.ca for information about all of our products and services.
Copyright Ipsos 2011. All rights reserved. The contents of this publication constitute the sole and exclusive property of Ipsos.
In this report Canadians and citizens of 23 other countries assess the current state of their country’s economy. This is the first of a series of Public Perspectives reports that Ipsos Reid Public Affairs (Canada) will distribute throughout the year. We hope that you find it useful.
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Canadian Public Affairs Public Perspectives – October 2011 – The Economic Pulse
How is the Economic Pulse measured?
There are three analytic components that make up the findings of this report:
Nobody’s Unpredictable© 2011 Ipsos Canadian Public Affairs All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
Canada At A Glance…
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Canadian Public Affairs Public Perspectives – October 2011 – The Economic Pulse
Positive about today’s national economy but declining; less optimistic and declining view of local economy over the next 6 months…
Country - Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? Local --Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy. Local 6 months - Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Apr
200
7
Oct
200
7
Apr
200
8
Nov
200
8
Apr
200
9
Jan
2010
Mar
201
0
Jun
2010
Sep
2010
Dec
201
0
Jan
2011
Mar
201
1
Jun
2011
Jul 2
011
Aug
201
1
Sep
2011
Canada - Country Canada - Local Canada - Local 6 MonthsVery good/good Rate 5-7 scale 1-7 Much/Somewhat Stronger
High 87%
Low 43%
High 38%
Low 15%
High 51%
Low 42% 48%
66%
15%
Nobody’s Unpredictable© 2011 Ipsos Canadian Public Affairs All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
Assessing Each Country’s Current Economic Situation…
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Canadian Public Affairs Public Perspectives – October 2011 – The Economic Pulse
Canadians among the most positive in assessing the current economic situation in their country…
39%89%
74%69%
66%65%
63%61%61%
59%55%
42%34%
31%27%27%
25%21%
17%15%
8%8%
7%4%
3%
TotalSaudi Arabia
SwedenIndia
CanadaChina
GermanyTurkey
AustraliaArgentina
BrazilIndonesia
South AfricaBelgium
PolandRussiaMexico
South KoreaGreat Britain
United StatesItaly
JapanFrance
HungarySpain
% Very Good / Somewhat Good
Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
--2 Month Trend
Up Flat Down
--
--
--
--
--
--
----
----
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Canadian Public Affairs Public Perspectives – October 2011 – The Economic Pulse
Canadians continue to track well ahead of the Global average and the Americans in assessing the current economic situation in their country…
Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
% Very Good / Somewhat Good
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Apr 20
07
Oct
200
7
Apr 20
08
Nov
2008
Apr 20
09
Jan 2
010
Mar
201
0
Jun 2
010
Sep
201
0
Dec
201
0
Jan 2
011
Mar
201
1
Jun 2
011
Jul 20
11
Aug 2
011
Sep
201
1
United States Canada Global
66%
15%
39%
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Canadian Public Affairs Public Perspectives – October 2011 – The Economic Pulse
Prairies and Alberta most positive in assessment of the current economic situation in the country; Ontario, BC, Atlantic decline…
% Very Good / Somewhat Good
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Ap
r 20
08
No
v 20
08
Ap
r 20
09
Mar
201
0
Jun
201
0
Sep
201
0
Dec
201
0
Mar
201
1
Jun
201
1
Jul
2011
Au
g 2
011
Sep
201
1
Canada British Columbia Alberta Prairies Ontario Québec Atlantic
Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
Most Recent
Prairies 85%
Alberta 75%
Québec 71%
Canada 66%
Atlantic 64%
B.C. 63%
Ontario 59%
Nobody’s Unpredictable© 2011 Ipsos Canadian Public Affairs All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
Assessing the Local Economic Situation…
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Canadian Public Affairs Public Perspectives – October 2011 – The Economic Pulse
30%64%
53%52%
48%47%
45%43%43%
39%36%
31%26%
24%21%21%
18%18%
17%16%
13%12%
9%6%
5%
TotalSaudi Arabia
ChinaSwedenCanada
IndiaTurkey
GermanyAustralia
BrazilArgentinaIndonesia
South AfricaPolandMexico
BelgiumRussia
United StatesGreat BritainSouth Korea
ItalyFrance
HungarySpainJapan
% Strong (Top 3 - 5-6-7)
Canadians among the most positive in assessing the current strength of the economy in their local area…
Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy
--
2 Month TrendUp Flat Down
--
--
--
--
--
----
--
--
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Canadian Public Affairs Public Perspectives – October 2011 – The Economic Pulse
Canadians continue to track well ahead of the Global average and the Americans in assessing the current strength of their local economy…
% Strong (Top 3 - 5-6-7)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Mar
201
0
Jun
201
0
Sep
201
0
Dec
201
0
Jan
201
1
Mar
201
1
Jun
201
1
Jul
2011
Au
g 2
011
Sep
201
1
United States Canada Global
Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy.
48%
18%
30%
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Canadian Public Affairs Public Perspectives – October 2011 – The Economic Pulse
Alberta and Prairies lead in assessment of their current local economy; Ontario declines…
Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy.
% Strong (Top 3 - 5-6-7)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Ma
r 2
01
0
Ju
n 2
01
0
Se
p 2
01
0
De
c 2
01
0
Ma
r 2
01
1
Ju
n 2
01
1
Ju
l 20
11
Au
g 2
01
1
Se
p 2
01
1
Canada British Columbia Alberta Prairies Ontario Québec Atlantic
Most Recent
Prairies 76%
Alberta 67%
Canada 48%
B.C. 47%
Québec 46%
Ontario 42%
Atlantic 39%
Nobody’s Unpredictable© 2011 Ipsos Canadian Public Affairs All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
Assessing the Local Economic Situation -- Six Months from Today…
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Canadian Public Affairs Public Perspectives – October 2011 – The Economic Pulse
Canadians more in the middle of the pack in projecting the strength of their local economy in next six months…
Looking ahead 6 months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?
24%65%
57%54%
52%44%
40%34%
29%19%
17%16%16%
15%15%15%15%15%
14%10%10%
8%7%
6%2%
TotalBrazil
Saudi ArabiaIndia
ArgentinaChina
TurkeyMexico
IndonesiaPoland
United StatesGermanyAustralia
CanadaRussiaSpain
South KoreaSouth Africa
SwedenGreat Britain
ItalyBelgium
JapanHungary
France
% Much Stronger / Somewhat Stronger
2 Month TrendUp Flat Down
--
--
--
--
--
----
--
--
--
--
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Canadian Public Affairs Public Perspectives – October 2011 – The Economic Pulse
Canadians now slightly less positive than Americans in projecting the strength of their local economy in next six months…
% Much Stronger / Somewhat Stronger
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Mar
201
0
Jun
201
0
Sep
201
0
Dec
201
0
Jan
201
1
Mar
201
1
Jun
201
1
Jul
2011
Au
g 2
011
Sep
201
1
United States Canada Global
Looking ahead 6 months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?
24%
15%17%
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Canadian Public Affairs Public Perspectives – October 2011 – The Economic Pulse
Quebec, Atlantic and BC trail in assessment of the strength of their local economy in next six months…
Looking ahead 6 months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Mar
201
0
Jun 2
010
Sep
201
0
Dec
201
0
Mar
201
1
Jun 2
011
Jul 2
011
Aug
201
1
Sep
201
1
% Much Stronger / Somewhat Stronger
Canada British Columbia Alberta Prairies Ontario Québec Atlantic
Most Recent
Prairies 35%
Alberta 27%
Ontario 16%
Canada 15%
B.C. 12%
Atlantic 9%
Québec 9%
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Data for this report was taken from Ipsos Global @dvisor…
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Canadian Public Affairs Public Perspectives – October 2011 – The Economic Pulse
© 2011 Ipsos Reid. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos’ Confidential, Trade Secret and Proprietary Information.
The contents of this document constitute the sole and exclusive property of Ipsos Reid (“Ipsos”) and may not be used in any manner without the prior written consent of Ipsos. Ipsos retains all right, title and interest in or to any of Ipsos' trademarks, technologies, norms, models, proprietary methodologies and analyses, including, without limitation, algorithms, techniques, databases, computer programs and software, used, created or developed by Ipsos in connection with Ipsos' preparation of this proposal. No license under any copyright is hereby granted or implied.
The contents of this document are confidential, proprietary and are strictly for the review and consideration of the addressee and its officers, directors and employees solely for the purpose of information. No other use is permitted, and the contents of this document (in whole or part) may not be disclosed to any third party, in any manner whatsoever, without the prior written consent of Ipsos.