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“The views, opinions and findings contained in this report are those of the authors(s) and should not be construed as an offic ial Department of the Army position, policy or decision, unless so designated by other official documentation.”
This document is FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY (FOUO). It contains information that may be exempt from public release under the Freedom of
Information Act (5 USC 552). It is to be controlled, stored, handled, transmitted, distributed, and disposed of in accordance with USACE policy
relating to FOUO information and it is not to be released to the public or other personnel who do not have a valid “need to know” without prior
written approval of an authorized USACE official.
NOAA ATLAS 14
VOLUME 11 UPDATE
Flood Management Task Force Meeting
April 20th, 2018
Mikaela Mahoney
Water Management
Fort Worth District
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT:
PRECIPITATION FREQUENCY ESTIMATES EFFECTS EVERYTHING
NOAA ATLAS 14
Updated precipitation frequency
estimates for different regions– New statistical methods
– More data
– Greater range of duration and ARI
– Better preparedness planning
Volume 11 (Texas) expected
September 2018
Web-based data platform
Funded by End Users
BASE PROJECT SCHEDULE
Data collection and initial quality control – Done
Technical and Statistical Analysis– Done
Initial spatial interpolation of precipitation frequency
estimates – Done
Incorporating Hurricane Harvey – Done
Peer Review – In Progress
Revision of PF estimates – May 2018
Web Publication – September 2018
Documentation Published – December 2018
PRECIPITATION DATA
Formatted 11,931
stations
– ≤15-min
– 1-hour
– 1-day
Retained 3,900
stations
– Length of record
– Reliability of
record
TP40 (1961)
NOAA Atlas 14
(2018)
PLIMNARY
RESULTS
2-YEAR 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATE
13.0 12.011.010.09.08.0
7.06.05.04.03.0
PLIMNARY
RESULTS
TP40 (1961)
NOAA Atlas 14 (2018)
100-YEAR 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATE
NOAA Atlas 14 Precipitation Changes
Hill Country
Coastal Region
PEER REVIEW BOARD
Dr. John Nielsen-Gammon – Texas A&M University/State Climatology
Dr. William Asquith – Texas Tech University/USGS
Dr. Nick Fang – University of Texas at Arlington
Dr. DJ Seo – University of Texas at Arlington
Steve Fitzgerald – Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD)
Saul Nuccitelli - TxDOT
Daniel Huckaby - NOAA/NWS
Paul McKee – NOAA/NWS
Maureen O'Leary - NWS/NOAA
Jon Zeitler - NOAA/NWS
Alan Johnson – FEMA
Jason Johnson – USGS
Simeon Benson – USACE
Jerry Cotter - USACE
Landon Erickson - USACE
Craig Loftin – USACE
Helena Mosser – USACE
Steve Pilney – USACE
Paul Rodman - USACE
Max Strickler – USACE
CURRENT FINANCIAL OUTLOOK
NOAA Atlas 14 Funding
Budgeted Cost
(Base Effort)$1,577,138
Funds Raised to date $1,422,389
Remaining Funds Required $154,749
Additional Studies $4,000,000
– Harris County Flood Control
District
– NCTCOG
– TxDOT
Current Partners– Brazos River Authority
– City of Austin
– City of Fort Worth
– USACE
InFRM – Meteorology Research Initiatives
Ongoing studies
NOAA Atlas 14 (September 2018)
Extreme storm HHT & Extreme
storm DB
Studies still needed
Other methods to estimate
precipitation frequency (check)
Trend analysis
Storm studies
NOAA Atlas 14
PRECIPITATION FREQUENCY ESTIMATES EFFECTS EVERYTHING
