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No-Magic-Wands:

The Benefits and Dangers of

Automated Machine Learning

Dr. Ingo MierswaFounder

@ingomierswa

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The Problem

Organizations still face a data scientist bottleneck.

615million

informationworkers

363million

informationworkers

105million

informationworkers

Slide from Tableau Investor Presentation 2015 Q4. 615m knowledge workers in 2013 (Forrester), 17% (105m) use BI tools and 59% (363m) use spreadsheets (Forrsights).

The Few The Many The Most

BI Tools

Excel

White Space

Machine Learning for All Knowledge Workers?

150MillionCitizenDataScientists

The Unicorns

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Usability Functionality Reliability Adaptability TCO Vendor Validation

Source: Ventana Research Next Generation Predictive Analytics Benchmark Research

Most Important: Ease of Use

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My Data.xls Upload and Do Magic!

The Expectation:

Data Science in a Box™

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Benefits in a Nutshell

… for Citizen Data Scientists … for Real Data Scientists

It's easy!

I'm more productive!

What could possibly go wrong?

Prediction of Churn

Can we predict the likelihood for customer churn for each of our clients?

ChurnArea Code Phone State

Account Length Int'l Plan

VMail Plan

Day Calls

Day Charge

Day Mins

Eve Calls

Eve Charge

Eve Mins

Intl Calls

Intl Charge

Intl Mins

Night Calls

Night Charge

Night Mins

CustServ Calls

VMailMessage

no 415 382-4657 KS 128.0 No PlanVMail

Plan 110.0 45.1 265.1 99.0 16.8 197.4 3.0 10.0 91.0 11.0 244.7 4.0 25.0

no 510 356-2992 VA 76.0 No Plan 66.0 32.3 189.7 65.0 18.1 212.8 5.0 10.0 108.0 7.5 165.7 5.0 33.0

yes 408 360-1596 AZ 12.0 No Plan 118.0 42.4 249.6 119.0 21.5 252.4 3.0 11.8 90.0 12.6 280.2 9.0 .0

no 408 364-1995 DE 142.0 No Plan No Plan 133.0 31.8 187.0 74.0 11.4 134.6 5.0 7.4 127.0 10.9 242.2 3.0 .0

no 408 420-5645 IN 60.0 No Plan No Plan 57.0 37.5 220.6 115.0 17.9 211.1 3.0 1.8 6.8 129.0 11.2 249.0 3.0 .0

no 415 403-9733 WI 68.0 No Plan No Plan 70.0 25.3 148.8 164.0 21.0 246.5 3.0 12.1 103.0 5.8 129.8 3.0 .0

no 415 352-8305 WA 40.0 No PlanVMail

Plan 74.0 25.2 148.1 88.0 14.4 169.5 5.0 6.2 102.0 9.6 214.1 1.0 41.0

no 408 365-9011 MN 113.0International

Plan No Plan 93.0 21.3 125.2 119.0 17.5 206.4 8.0 2.2 8.3 139.0 5.8 129.3 4.0 .0

no 415 362-5889 HI 85.0 No Plan No Plan 109.0 40.1 235.8 94.0 13.4 157.2 3.0 12.0 99.0 8.5 188.2 5.0 .0

yes 415 334-1275 LA 155.0 No Plan 100.0 34.6 203.4 104.0 16.2 190.9 4.0 8.9 119.0 8.8 196.0 10.0 .0

no 415 340-4953 AR 80.0 No Plan No Plan 100.0 21.1 124.3 107.0 14.7 173.0 9.0 7.9 62.0 11.4 253.2 1.0 .0

no 408 366-4467 AK 104.0 No Plan No Plan 106.0 47.3 278.4 113.0 6.9 81.0 5.0 9.8 137.0 7.3 163.2 4.0 .0

no 408 383-1509 AL 98.0 No Plan 117.0 27.4 161.0 113.0 16.2 190.9 4.0 12.1 113.0 10.3 227.7 .0 .0

yes 510 363-1069 ME 36.0International

PlanVMail

Plan 89.0 33.5 196.8 122.0 21.7 254.9 6.0 20.0 126.0 6.2 138.3 8.0 42.0

no 510 391-4652 NJ 64.0 No Plan No Plan 83.0 27.6 162.6 109.0 13.0 152.3 3.0 14.2 122.0 2.6 57.5 3.0 .0

no 415 329-4391 MS 193.0 No Plan No Plan 124.0 29.1 170.9 95.0 11.3 132.3 3.0 11.6 89.0 5.1 112.9 4.0 .0

yes 510 414-8718 MS 61.0 No PlanVMail

Plan 124.0 31.9 187.5 103.0 12.5 146.6 6.0 6.4 129.0 10.2 225.7 10.0 27.0

no 408 355-2909 CA 75.0 No Plan No Plan 125.0 28.3 166.3 86.0 13.5 158.2 5.0 1.7 6.1 80.0 11.6 256.7 2.0 .0

no 408 411-5859 AR 163.0 No Plan No Plan 109.0 33.5 197.0 128.0 17.2 202.6 10.0 9.1 80.0 9.3 206.4 .0 .0

no 415 374-3534 MD 120.0 No Plan 68.0 34.1 200.3 97.0 18.7 220.4 4.0 10.5 116.0 11.4 253.8 3.0 39.0

Target Base Data Transaction Data

Machine Learning

Let ME be your Auto Model…

I will create an awesome model for you and tell you how well it works!

96% Accuracy

Reach ALL churn casesat 20% of cost

5 million customers @ $600Churn rate: 15%$450 million loss due to churn

Cost: at 25% of revenue, we can achieve a success rate of 60%for the identified top 20%

$150 million cost forretaining $270 million

6 Monthslater…Turns out that reaching out tothe top 20% only reaches 50%of the churn cases…

Still$150 millioncost for$135 millionretained

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My Data.xls Upload and Do Magic!

The Expectation:

Data Science in a Box™

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My Data.xls Upload and Do Magic!

Disclaimer: Using models produced by this technology carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all users. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding

to use these models in any business environment you should carefully consider your objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your assets and therefore you should not use these models in combination with any of your assets that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with

using these models, and seek advice from an independent data science advisor if you have any doubts.

THE RESULTS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE ARE BASED ON SIMULATED OR HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS THAT HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE THE RESULTS SHOWN IN AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, THESE RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL MODEL PREDICTIONS. ALSO, BECAUSE THESE PREDICTIONS HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED,

THESE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN BUSINESS FACTORS. SIMULATED OR HYPOTHETICAL MODEL RESULTS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS

OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THESE BEING SHOWN.

How this should look like:

Data Science in a Box™

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There are no Magic Wands

(Citizen) data scientists need to stay in full control to test, modify and fine tune every step.

#noblackboxes

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RapidMiner Auto Model

…accelerates everything data scientists do whenbuilding machine learning models

Auto Model automates Data Science –but without the black box!

Readdata

Select task

Prepare data

ResultsModelFilter low-

quality data

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Benefits of RapidMiner Auto Model

… for Citizen Data Scientists

#noblackboxesLearn from the results

… for Real Data Scientists

#noblackboxesStarting point for optimization

It's easy!

I'm more productive!

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TRUST#noblackboxes

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Our Mission

Real data science, fast and simple.

We do not compromise on the quality of results or completeness.

We focus on making data scientists and teams more productive.

We empower more people to do and use real data science.

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RapidMiner Highlights

Analysts

By the numbers

#1 Open-Source Platform

Last five years in a rowData Mining &

Analytics Software Poll

Leader2017

Predictive Analytics & Machine Learning

#1

Data Science Platform

350,000+

Data Science Community

500+

GlobalClients

Channel Partners

200+

Innovation Winner 2015

Wisdom of Crowds for Advanced & Predictive Analytics, Big Data Analytics & End-User Data Prep

Leader 2014 - 2018

Gartner Magic Quadrant for Data Science Platforms

Accolades

CB InsightsThe AI 100, 2017

“100 Startups Using Artificial Intelligenceto Transform Industries”

VENTANA RESEARCH2016 Technology Innovation Awards

Winner Predictive Analytics

Gartner, Magic Quadrant for Data Science Platforms, 22 February 2018. Gartner does not endorse any vendor, product or service depicted in its research publications, and does not advise technology users to select only those vendors with the highest ratings or other designation. Gartner research publications consist of the opinions of Gartner's research organization and should not be construed as statements of fact. Gartner disclaims all warranties, expressed or implied, with respect to this research, including any warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose.

Data Science Designer, Code Optional, Auto Model Deployment, Management & Collaboration

Simplified Big Data Science & Machine Learning

On-demand Innovation & Execution

RapidMiner Marketplaces

RapidMiner Studio RapidMiner Server

RapidMiner Radoop

ModelingEfficiently build and

deliver better models faster

ValidationConfidently &

accurately estimate model performance

Data AccessConnect to any data source, any format,

at any scale

Data ExplorationQuickly discover patterns or data

quality issues

Data PrepSpeed & optimize data exploration,

blending & cleansing tasks

IntegrationEmbed reliable

results into business processes

ManagementManage models,

user administration & security

CollaborationAccess, reuse and share processes &

data sources

ComputationRun processes on

enterprise hardware from

anywhere

SchedulingSchedule or trigger event-driven model

execution

Simplified AnalyticsReduces Hadoop

complexity

Lightning FastCovers complete analytics lifecycle

Broad Data AccessEliminate connectivity

struggles

Integrated SecurityEnsure security

compliance

Hadoop-optimizedLeverage Hadoop distributed power

Scalable ProcessingProcess in-Hadoop and

in-memory

Spark ExecutionExecute RapidMiner processes in parallel

∞ Extensive Domain ExpertiseExpert marketplace of certified RapidMiner skills

Plug-ins, Algorithms, ExtensionsProduct Marketplace to extend and innovate

RapidMiner Data Science Platform

Key Take-aways

Do NOT fall in the marketing trap: there are no magic wands!

Put guidance and productivity gains before empowering the whole world to build models.

Done correctly, Auto Model can truly accelerate data science and teach people #noblackboxes

RapidMiner Auto Model is doing it right and covers everything: data prep for modeling, model selection, parameter optimization, and correct validation

Can be combined with other parts of the RapidMiner platform: Studio for further process design & ETL and Server for model deployment & management

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Thank you!Dr. Ingo Mierswa@ingomierswa