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Nigerian Breweries PlcBeer for the bear market
Equity ResearchWole Famurewa
+234 802 319 3780
Temitayo Orekoya
+234 708 845 8120
Investment Summary 2
Company Overview
Background 3
Product Brands 4
Distribution Chain 5
Management 6
Shareholder Structure 6
Price Performance 6
Financial Analysis and Forecast 7
Assumptions 8
Valuation 10
Financials 11
Table of Content
Report date 18 July 2008
Target Price NGN 65.95
Current Price NGN 51.00
Enterprise Value (DCF) NGN bn 491.6
Common share outstanding 7.6bn
Market Capitalisation NGNbn 387.6
Change from 52-week High -9%
Change from 52-week low 26%
Web www.nbplc.com
Share Price performance
1 Week 0.0%
1 month 2.0%
3 month 0.0%
Year to date 4.1%
Year Revenue EBITDA Net Income EPS DPS Pay out Ratio P/E Div Yield ROE
2006 86.3 22.8 10.90 144.14 120.0 83% 35.4 2.4% 30.1%
2007 111.7 32.6 18.94 250.48 159.0 63% 20.4 3.1% 53.9%
2008E 138.3 43.5 26.35 348.42 243.9 70% 14.6 4.8% 61.2%
2009E 167.5 54.4 34.02 449.87 314.9 70% 11.3 6.2% 63.8%
2010E 198.3 65.9 42.10 556.72 389.7 70% 9.2 7.6% 63.9%
2011E 224.0 74.4 47.48 627.88 439.5 70% 8.1 8.6% 59.2%
2012E 253.2 84.3 53.97 713.61 499.5 70% 7.1 9.8% 56.0%
Nigerian Breweries PlcBeer for the bear market
Investment Summary� In this report, we initiate coverage on
Nigerian Breweries Plc (NB Plc), Nigeria's
largest brewer, attaching a BUY rating to the
stock with a 29% upside potential over the
next 12 months.
� Our bullish view is predicated on NB's
dominant market position and consistent
growth in the light of Nigeria's relatively low
beer consumption per capita. Moreover, the
value of Nigerian Breweries shares have been
relatively stable during the recent bear
market.
� Our fair valuation of NGN65.95 (compared
to its market price of NGN51) is based on free
cash flow (FCF) estimates from 2008 to 2017.
We project FCF to grow from NGN32bn in
2008 to NGN65bn in 2017. We assume that
revenue will double by the year 2017 to
NGN253.2bn from NGN111.7 bn in 2007. We
estimate PAT to grow from NGN18.9bn in
2007 to N54.3bn at the end of 2012 at a 5 year
CAGR of 23.4%.
-40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0%
International Brew
Dangote Flour
Dangote Sugar
Flour mills Nigeria
Guinness Nigeria
PZ Industries
Nigerian Breweries
3 months Stock performance
18th July 2008
2
Major player in the Nigerian Brewery sector
with strong selling brands
Company Overview
Background
Nigerian Breweries (NB Plc) is a subsidiary of the Dutch
brewer, Heineken. The company is Nigerian’s pioneer and
largest brewer with current annual production capacity
estimated at 10 mn hectolitres. Founded in 1946, NB operates
5 breweries in Nigeria. The first was commissioned in Lagos in
1949 and four others have subsequently been established in
Aba (1957), Kaduna (1963), Ibadan (1982), Enugu (1993) and
Ama (2003), providing a geographical spread across the
country, albeit bias for cities in the southern part of Nigeria.
NB along with Guinness Nigeria constitutes a formidable
oligopoly in the Nigerian beer market, with an 80% combined
market share. Over the years, NB has launched a series of
alcoholic and non alcoholic brands carefully crafted for the
Nigerian consumer these includes Star Lager Beer, the
company’s flagship product. Others include Gulder Larger
Beer, Heineken (Larger), Maltina (Malt drink in four variants -
Maltina Classic, Maltina Strawberry, Maltina Exotic and Maltina
with Pineapple) and Legend Extra Stout.
Listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange in 1990, NB is one of the
most capitalised and actively traded companies outside the
banking and insurance sectors. As at December 2007, the
company had 131,026 shareholders. Heineken N.V. of Holland
has a majority shareholding of 54.1%.
In its resolve to maintain leadership of the beer market, NB
launched the local production of the Heineken brand, an
International high quality premium beer, in 2004. This marked
the highpoint of a two-year process to position Heineken, which
was previously imported into the country, as a locally produced
brand. Currently, the company produces Heineken beer in its
new state of the art brewery in Ama (Enugu State, South-East
Nigeria).
In addition, NB recently introduced MALTINA SIP-IT, a variant of
Maltina in a ‘Handy Pack’. One of the latest additions to NB's
product range is the new Gulder Max - a stronger, darker and
higher gravity brewed variant of the regular Gulder with a 6.5%
alcoholic content. The introduction of GulderMax was designed
to strengthen the existing brands and to increase the beer
options as obtained elsewhere in the world.
Despite its rapid growth in recent years, NB is noted for its
efficient cost management, an effort that contributed to the
liquidation of the company's huge debt profile in 2006 and won
the company an award for the best cost saving company within
the Heineken group.
86.3
111.7
138.3
167.5
198.3
224.0
253.2
10.90 18.94 26.35 34.02 42.10 47.48 53.97
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E
Revenue Net Income
120.0159.0
243.9
314.9
389.7
439.5
499.5
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E
Dividend per share 2006 - 2012E
40
45
50
55
60
Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08
Figure 1 NB Price Performance - Year to date
3
Figure 2
Figure 3
Company Overview
Product Brands
Star beer has assumed the image and stature of a national
icon. A beer associated with brightness, social fun, high
quality taste and style - a world-class brand brewed by
Nigerian Breweries Plc (NB Plc) .
Star was introduced into the Nigerian market in 1949 as the
first indigenous beer brand. The beer market had hitherto
been dominated exclusively by imported brands. Shortly
after its entry into the market, the beer quickly overcame
the problems of market acceptance.
Star is largely responsible for the growth of the Nigerian
indigenous beer industry. The popularity gave other
prospective investors courage to consider the
establishment of new breweries.
Gulder Lager Beer was introduced in 1970 and then
relaunched in 1972. Gulder was introduced on a platform of
uniqueness and distinction for the confident, socially active
consumer driven by a desire for success. Gulder comes
packaged in a unique brown 60cl bottle (at the time of
launch, the only brown bottle in Nigeria) with 5.2% alcohol
content. The beer is made from malted barley, hops and
water with a distinctively bitter taste. Gulder is available in
many arts of West Africa, specifically Ghana, Republic of
Benin and Togo. It is also exported to the United Kingdom.
Maltina is Nigeria’s premier malt drink is now available in
four varieties (Maltina classic, Maltina strawberry, Maltina
exotic and Maltina with pineapple)
Amstel Malta is a non-alcholic malt beverage, meaning it
is brewed from barley, hops, yeast, and water much like
beer. Corn and caramel color may also be added.
Legend Extra stout brand now re-launched in a brand new
and fashionable packaging. The new Legend Extra Stout
now comes with a new attractive body and neck Label. For
the first time in the brand’s history, a back label has also
been introduced. The back label provides detailed
information about the brand, such as ingredients, alcoholic
contents etc. A unique, bottom-fermenting alcoholic
beverage produced from sorghum malt, sorghum and maize
and flavored with a natural stout aroma compound with
7.4% alcohol content.
4
The Distribution Chain
Figure 4. Nigerian Breweries Plants across Nigeria
Company Overview
The company delivers its products through 147 key distributors and wholesalers (2006: 149). NB does not own
and is not liable for the logistics related to the distribution of its products. It key distributors are carefully
selected to ensure that the company's products are available across Nigeria.
Aba BreweryEstablished in 1957
Estimated pop: 2.8mn;
2.0% of Total
population.
A new bottle line and
the restart of beer
production
Enugu Brewery and AMA BreweryEstablished in 1993 and
2003 respectively
Estimated pop: 3.3mn;
2.3% of Total
population.
Currently extending the
brewing plant.
Kaduna BreweryEstablished in 1963
Estimated pop: 6.1mn;
4.3% of Total
population.
Currently extending the
brewing plant.
Ibadan BreweryEstablished in 1982
Estimated pop: 5.6mn;
3.9% of Total
population.
Tank room expansion
and Fayrouz
production. Also the
production of Can
STAR
Lagos BreweryEstablished in 1949
Estimated pop: 9.0mn;
6.3% of Total
population.
Currently extending the
brewing plant.
5
Management
Shareholder structure
Price performance
Company Overview
Nigerian Breweries’s eleven-member board comprises the Chairman, Chief
K.B. Jamodu, the Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer, M. J.
Herkemij (Dutch) and nine others - O.S. Adebanji, Dr. O. O. Ajayi, Prof.
(Mrs) J.O.Akande, W.Fijnaut (Dutch), E. E. Imoagene, L. Le Couedic
(French), Th. A. de Man (Dutch), E. J. van Willegen (Dutch), I. E. Yamson
(Ghanaian).
Figure 6 Price Performance - Year to date Vs the NSE
Heineken N.V., 54%
Estimated Free
Float
46%
Figure 5.
40
45
50
55
60
Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08
6
Revenue
Table 1. Revenue growth Chart
2006A 2007A 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E
Nigeria 86.1 111.5 138.3 167.5 198.3 224.0 253.2
Export 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Revenue 86.3 111.7 138.3 167.5 198.3 224.0 253.2
Financial analysis and forecasts
Over the five-year period Dec 2003 to Dec 2007, NB has delivered the
following key financial metrics:
- Revenues have grown from NGN73.6bn at YE03 to NGN111.7bn in 2007, a
CAGR of 8.% over the five-year period.
- EBITDA doubled from NGN15bn at YE03 to NGN32bn in 2007, a CAGR of
11.6% over the five-year period.
- PAT increased from NGN5.1bn at YE03 to NGN18.9bn in 2007, a CAGR of
38% over the five-year period.
In the following section, we summarise the underlying assumptions for
valuation model.
We forecast the group’s total revenue rising at a CAGR of 17.8% (2007-
2012E), from NGN111.7bn in 2007 to NGN253.2bn by 2012E. Our model on NB
only assumes organic growth in Nigeria. The key drivers of these assumptions are
as follows:
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Revenue 86.3220 111.748 138.308 167.460 198.251 224.036 253.173
EBITDA 22.8343 32.6068 43.5046 54.4385 65.9382 74.3501 84.3234
PAT 10.9005 18.9428 26.3617 34.0757 42.2227 47.6861 54.2643
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
Th
ou
san
ds
Figure 7 Nigerian Breweries Revenue, EBITDA and PAT for the years 2006A to 2012E
7
Margins
Costs
Gross profit
SG&A
Tax
� Beer consumption per capita in Nigeria increases from 8.4 litres in 2007 to
13.2 litres in 2012E (a CAGR of 9.4%)
� Beer consumption in Nigeria rises from 14.0mn hectolitres in 2007 to
24.9mn hectolitres in 2012E (a CAGR of 12.2%)
� NB’s market share remains unchanged at 53.5%
� NB’s output rises from our estimated 7.5mn hectolitres in 2007 to 13.3mn
hectolitres in 2012E (a CAGR of 12.2%)
� We assume that the average price of beer per litre rises from
approximately NGN149 in 2007E to NGN190 in 2012E, representing a price
CAGR of 5.0%.
Assumptions
We do not have a detailed break down on the cost of goods sold relating to
NB business and have therefore made the following assumptions with
regards to gross profit .
NB’s pricing policy has been to pass on raw material price increases to its
customers in order to maintain its margin. Historically, NB has derived a
gross profit margin in excess of 50%. We have assumed that gross profit
margin will remain at historic levels of 50%.
SG&A costs have historically been tightly controlled and risen in line with
inflation (CPI). Given the lack of detail on operating costs we have taken a
conservative approach and assumed that SG &A will rise at a rate of 500
basis point above our forecast inflation rate.
We have assumed a corporate tax rate of 30% and an additional 2%
educational levy into our model from 2008.
NB’s pricing policy is to pass on raw materials increases to its customers.
Demand for beer has been relatively inelastic to minor price increases. We
assume that the company continues to maintain gross margins of 50% and
EBITDA margins greater than 30%.
Our financial forecast is based on the following assumptions
8
Capex
Assumptions
We forecast total gross profit rising at a CAGR of 16.4% (2007-
2012) from NGN59.2bn in 2007A to NGN126.6bn by 2012E. This
implies that the gross profit margin remains flat at 50%.
EBITDA rises from NGN32.6bn in 2007A to NGN84.3bn by
2012E, a CAGR of 20.9% (2007-2012E), maintaining the EBITDA
margin marginally above 30% throughout the forecast period.
Profit after tax increases from NGN18.9bn in 2007A to
NGN54.3bn by 2012, a CAGR of 23.4%. (2007-2012E).
EPS rises from NGN2.50 in 2007A to NGN7.17 by 2012, a CAGR
of 23.4% (2007-2012E).
We estimate that NB is currently running at 75% of capacity
(7.5mn hectolitres of approximately 10mn hectolitres installed
capacity). Management has announced that it is currently
optimising its facility, which will translate into an additional 20%
capacity (i.e. 12mn hectolitres of estimated installed capacity).
We believe that this will be sufficient under our current growth
assumptions until 2010. NB have not disclosed any plans to
increase installed capacity as yet, but we assume that this
decision will have to be made over the next 18 months.
We have therefore make the following assumptions:
NB increases its installed capacity by 5mn hectolitres in 2011 and
2016. We assume a cost of NGN3.5bn per 1mn hectolitre of
increased capacity at current prices.
Maintenance capex of 4% of sales.
51.36% 52.96%50.00% 50.00% 50.00% 50.00% 50.00%
26.45%29.18% 31.45% 32.51% 33.26% 33.19% 33.31%
12.63%16.95% 19.06% 20.35% 21.30% 21.29% 21.43%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Gross EBITDA NET
Figure 8 Profitability Margins
9
Valuation
Working capital is a strong indicator of the efficiency of a firm. The
inventory turnover ratio, is a good instrument for assessing the
effectiveness of working capital management it shows how fast/often
companies are able to get their goods completely off the shelves.
Generally, a high inventory turnover ratio is good for business. In the
BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China), inventory turnover ratio, ITR for
brewery companies ranges between 10x and 12x. NB in 2007 has grown
its ITR to 6.9x from 6.8x in 2006, which compare favourably with its
major competitor, Guinness, which has an ITR of 4.9x. We estimate that
NB Plc will improve its ITR to 10x by 2017.
The company’s trading working capital is positive, as it secures creditor
terms of approximately 65 days, but its trade debtors’ terms are 15 days.
We assume that the dividend payout ratio of 70% is maintained looking
forward.
All capital expenditure needs are met from internally generated funds.
NB maintains a positive cash position and no debt with a closing cash
position.
In its 1Q, 2008 results, in line with estimates, the company increased
turnover 25.93% to NGN32.4 bn from NGN25.5bn over the same period
in 2007. PAT grew 42.38% to NGN6.2bn on the back of increased sales
and an aggressive restructuring of the business, which cut costs
significantly and improved supply lines. NB’s supeiror marketing and
distribution strategy has helped the company maintain its position as a
market leader in Nigeria’s beer industry.
The launch of Heineken, and Amstel Malta in 33cl can, re-launch of
Gulder and Amstel Malta 33cl were some of the high points in 2007. The
number of third party delivery trucks also grew from 500 to 700
units, which enhanced turnaround time. The company hope to challene
Guinness Nigeria's dominance of the stout market, with the repackaging
of its Legend extra stout. Amid growing competition, the parent
company, Heineken N. V has committed significant resources to capacity
improvement projects such as a new bottle line and the restart of beer
production in Aba; tank room extension and Fayrouz production in
Ibadan (South West Nigeria); extension of Lagos brewery plant (brew
house, cellars and logistics master plan); extension of Kaduna brew
house and installation of second line in Ibadan for the production of
canned Star.
Pre-result release expectation
Based on aforementioned assumptions and a given the company’s
expansion projects, we estimate a post-tax profit of NGN12.5bn for the
second quarter results, while we believe revenues should firm up to
NGN65bn. This result is due for release by the third week of July 2008.
30.1%
53.9%61.2% 63.8% 63.9%
59.2% 56.0%
14.4%20.7% 23.6% 24.9% 25.3% 24.0% 23.1%
2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E
ROE ROA
In arriving at a fair value for Nigerian
Breweries Plc we estimated Free Cash Flow
(FCF) and PAT for the period between 2008
and 2017. We project a FCF to grow from
NGN32bn in 2008 to NGN65bn in 2017. We
assume that revenue, will growth at a rate
slightly lower than GDP and double by the
year 2017 to NGN253.2bn from NGN111.7 in
2007. We estimate PAT to grow from
NGN18.9bn in 2007 to N54.3bn at the end of
2017 at a 5 year CAGR of 23.4%.
In our DCF valuation, we assumed a terminal
growth rate of 3.0%. A Weighted Average
Cost of Capital, WACC of 14.8%, which is
estimated using a beta value of 0.8 based on
the 5-year historical returns on the company
share price and the Nigerian Stock Exchange
All Share Index (ASI), coupon rate of 10% on
the 1-year Federal Government (FGN) Bond
issued in the month of June, 2008 as our risk
free rate and a market risk premium of 6%.
We used 7.6bn ordinary Shares in issue at the
date of this valuation. Our Discounted Cash
Flow model values NB at NGN65.9 per share
while the Price to Earnings multiple generates
a NGN61.11 per share. A weighted average of
the two valuation model indicates a
NGN65.00 12 month target price for Nigerian
Breweries. Our forecast DPS for the forecast
period 2008 to 2012 are
NGN2.43, NGN3.14, NGN3.89, NGN4.39 and
NGN4.99 respectively.
We therefore place a BUY recommendation
on Nigerian Breweries with a 29% upside
potential from its current price of NGN51.
Working capital and cash flow
Q1 March 2008 Performance
10
Figure 9
Table 2. Nigerian Breweries Summary Income Statement (Year Ending December Nbn)
2006A 2007A 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012ECAGR 2007-2012
Total Revenue 86.3 111.7 138.3 167.5 198.3 224.0 253.2 17.8%
Growth y-o-y 7.7% 29.5% 23.8% 21.1% 18.4% 13.0% 0.0%
COGS 42.0 52.6 69.2 83.7 99.1 112.0 126.6 19.2%
Gross Profit 44.3 59.2 69.2 83.7 99.1 112.0 126.6 16.4%
Margin 51.4% 53.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0%
Opex costs 21.5 26.6 25.6 29.3 33.2 37.7 42.3 9.7%
EBITDA 22.8 32.6 43.5 54.4 65.9 74.4 84.3 20.9%
Margin 26.5% 29.2% 31.5% 32.5% 33.3% 33.2% 33.3%
D&A 6.0 5.5 5.8 6.2 6.7 7.9 9.1 10.6%
EBIT 16.8 27.1 37.7 48.2 59.2 66.5 75.2 22.6%
Margin 19.5% 24.3% 27.3% 28.8% 29.9% 29.7% 29.7%
Net Financial
Income -0.5 0.5 1.1 1.9 2.9 3.7 4.654.7%
PBT (Norm) 16.4 27.9 38.8 50.1 62.1 70.1 79.8 23.4%
Margin 19.0% 24.9% 28.0% 29.9% 31.3% 31.3% 31.5%
Other Income 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Exceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
PBT 16.4 27.9 38.8 50.1 62.1 70.1 79.8 23.4%
Margin 19.0% 24.9% 28.0% 29.9% 31.3% 31.3% 31.5%
Taxation 5.5 8.9 12.4 16.0 19.9 22.4 25.5 23.4%
ETR 33.7% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0%
PAT 10.9 18.9 26.4 34.1 42.2 47.7 54.3 23.4%
Margin 12.6% 17.0% 19.1% 20.3% 21.3% 21.3% 21.4%
EPS 144.14 250.48 348.58 450.58 558.31 630.55 717.54 23.4%
% Y-o-Y 32.1% 73.8% 39.2% 29.3% 23.9% 12.9% 13.8%
DPS 120.00 159.00 221.27 286.02 354.40 400.26 455.48 23.4%
% Y-o-Y 0.0% 32.5% 39.2% 29.3% 23.9% 12.9% 13.8%
Financials NGN bn
11
Table 4. Nigerian Breweries Summary Income Statement (Year Ending December $ mn)
2006A 2007A 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012ECAGR 2007-2012
Nigeria 662.5 878.1 1,265.4 1,584.3 1,782.8 2,000.3 2,260.5 20.8%
Growth y-o-y 0.0% 32.5% 44.1% 25.2% 12.5% 12.2% 13.0%
Total Revenue 664.0 879.9 1,265.4 1,584.3 1,782.8 2,000.3 2,260.5 20.8%
Growth y-o-y 0.0% 32.5% 43.8% 25.2% 12.5% 12.2% 13.0%
COGS 323.0 413.9 632.7 792.2 891.4 1,000.2 1,130.2 22.3%
Gross Profit 341.0 466.0 632.7 792.2 891.4 1,000.2 1,130.2 19.4%
Margin 51.4% 53.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0%
Opex costs 165.4 209.3 234.7 277.1 298.5 336.3 377.4 12.5%
EBITDA 175.6 256.7 398.0 515.0 593.0 663.8 752.9 24.0%
Margin 26.5% 29.2% 31.5% 32.5% 33.3% 33.2% 33.3%
D&A 46.2 43.3 53.0 58.9 60.5 70.4 81.4 13.5%
EBIT 129.4 213.4 345.0 456.1 532.4 593.4 671.5 25.8%
Margin 19.5% 24.3% 27.3% 28.8% 29.9% 29.7% 29.7%
Net Financial
Income -3.9 4.1 9.7 17.9 26.0 32.7 41.058.6%
PBT (Norm) 126.4 219.5 354.7 474.1 558.4 626.1 712.5 26.6%
Margin 19.0% 24.9% 28.0% 29.9% 31.3% 31.3% 31.5%
Other Income 0.9 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Exceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
PBT 126.4 219.5 354.7 474.1 558.4 626.1 712.5 26.6%
Margin 19.0% 24.9% 28.0% 29.9% 31.3% 31.3% 31.5%
Taxation 42.6 70.3 113.5 151.7 178.7 200.4 228.0 26.5%
ETR 33.7% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0%
PAT 83.9 149.2 241.2 322.4 379.7 425.8 484.5 26.6%
Margin 12.6% 17.0% 19.1% 20.3% 21.3% 21.3% 21.4%
EPS 1.11 1.97 3.19 4.26 5.02 5.63 6.41 26.6%
% Y-o-Y 0.0% 77.9% 61.7% 33.7% 17.8% 12.1% 13.8%
DPS 0.92 1.25 2.02 2.71 3.19 3.57 4.07 26.6%
% Y-o-Y 0.0% 35.6% 61.7% 33.7% 17.8% 12.1% 13.8%
Financials $ mn
12
Disclosures
This report has been issued and approved by PHB Asset Management Limited (PAML) and is based on
information from various sources that we believe are reliable. However, no representation is made
that it is accurate or complete. While reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no
responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any opinion expressed herein. This
document is for information purposes only. It does not constitute any offer or solicitation to any
person to enter into any trading transaction. Investments discussed in this report may not be suitable
for all investors. This report is provided solely for the information of PAML clients who are then
expected to make their own investment decisions. PAML conducts designated investment business
with market counter parties and customers and this document is directed only to such persons. PAML
accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report
or its contents. This report is for private circulation only and may not be reproduced, distributed or
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report should bear in mind that investments can fluctuate in price and value. Past performance is not
necessarily a guide to future performance. PAML and/or a connected company may or may not have
a relationship with any of the entities mentioned in this document for which it has received or may
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©PHB Asset Management Limited.
13