NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (corrected)

000

AXPZ20 KNHC 031109 CCA

TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1005 UTC SUN MAY 03 2015

ADDING ADDITIONAL WORDING ABOUT LARGE SWELL EVENT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM

THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS

BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND

METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH

0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 6N80W TO 4N95W TO 8N115W TO 6N127W. ITCZ

6N127W TO 8N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG

CONVECTION FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 77W-91W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO

STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 330 NM S OF AXIS FROM 117W-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE

DISCUSSION EXTENDS FROM CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST N OF THE AREA

NEAR 34N128W TO 25N140W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SE OF THE

TROUGH AND DOMINATES MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH AN

ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 13N113W. A 100-125 KT

JETSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS

FROM 21N140W TO 30N120W INTO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. STRONG

SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER

LEVELS N OF 20N W OF 110W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 105W. NLY WINDS 20-30 KT WILL

CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THEN WILL

DECREASE TO BELOW 20 KT SUN NIGHT.

LARGE SW SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC SWELL CONTINUES TO SPREAD N AND NE

ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...AND HAS REACHED THE OFFSHORE

WATERS OF CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING. MORNING

ALTIMETER PASSES MEASURED SEAS 12-14 FT W THROUGH SW OF THE

GALAPAGOS ISLANDS...WHILE SEAS ACROSS THE COLOMBIAN COASTAL

WATERS HAD REACHED 8 FT. THIS LARGE AND VERY STRONG SWELL WILL

CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT

THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND AFFECT THE ENTIRE AREA E OF 132W.

SIGNIFICANT SWELL WILL ALSO ENTER THE S PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF

CALIFORNIA...WERE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 7-10 FT BY

SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE LARGE VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL

GENERATE VERY LARGE SURF AND DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS ALONG

THE REGIONAL COASTS AND WITHIN THE SURFZONE THROUGHOUT THE

WEEKEND.

$$

DGS

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDEP.shtml