Next Generation Flood Forecasting and Warning System Evaluation and Work Plan Development

March 8, 2018

Nick Lorrain, CETManager, Capital ProjectsToronto and Region Conservation Authoritynlorrain@trca.on.ca

Sam Bellamy, P.EngPrincipal Water Resources EngineerMatrix Solutions Inc. sbellamy@matrix-solutions.com

1) Background

2) TRCA’s Future DSS Requirements

3) Study Process

4) Decision Support System Evaluation

5) Conclusions

6) Next Steps

Presentation Overview

Background

Current version of the Daily Planning Cycle

Background

Current version of the Daily Planning Cycle

• Provides decision making support based on precipitation forecasts counted in 24 hour increments

• Consists of basic excel hydrology calculations for tracking soil moisture and estimating peak flow at discrete sites

• Uses a single soil-moisture and recorded rainfall value to be representative for the entire jurisdiction

• Currently forecasts flows for 14 sites

Background

Limitations of the current version of the Daily Planning Cycle

• Advancements in hydrology and hydraulic modelling capabilities, the underlying equations for calculating flood thresholds in the DPC are outdated

• Spatial distribution of weather data and the resulting hydrologic impacts at a sub watershed scale is non-existent

• The DPC uses a single soil moisture and recorded rainfall value to be representative for the entire jurisdiction

• The DPC does not allow for the intake of real-time watershed information or radar

Current DPC is completely applicable for what it was intended to do, at the time it was made!

TRCA’s Future DSS RequirementsForecast horizon 3 days-24 hours 24 to 12 hours and 12-3 hours out 3 hours out - nowcastingAvailable data sources (for precipitation and weather)

Environment Canada (EC) text forecasts GEM weather model (Canada) HRDPS weather model (Canada) NAM model (US) QPF model (US) NOAA Snow cover and other satellite based snow-

water equivalent products EC 3-day thunderstorm outlook and map Weather network Thunderstorm outlook SREF model (US) Tracked Snow-Water Equivalent (tracked via

spreadsheet between biweekly readings)

(In addition to those shown to the left) HRDPS (Local Area Model, 2.5km – gridded output,

Canada) HRRR – gridded output (US, High Resolution Rapid

Refresh) EC forecaster comments Weather Network hourly precipitation prediction –

supposedly a forecaster’s interpretation of multiple models

Forecast gridded radar (NEXRAD) Forecast gridded radar (EC) (King City Radar) – may or

may not be available Forecast radar – Weather Network – may or may not

be gridded, may or may not be publicly available Other satellite derived products

Real-time Buffalo Radar (via Intellicast) NEXRAD forecast radar HRRR hourly model Real-time King City Radar Real-time TRCA Rain and stream gauges (ours) CoCoRAHs rain gauges Lightning maps (Solma, CLDM) EC Watches and warnings

Functionality we need – Wish List

Intake and consideration of multiple weather and precipitation forecast sources (NAM, GEM, etc.)

Quick check of current and expected watershed conditions

Heads up for deciding if a) need to issue a message, b) enhanced monitoring, or c) close out for the day

Decision and record keeping tool (place for forecaster comments)

Support for post-event dam operations (are we clear to draw-down the dam?)

Tracking of antecedent conditions, if hydrologic models/equations require it, in a way that accounts for spatial distribution (ie: by watershed, and by headwater versus main branch areas)

Ability to consider runoff or peak flow thresholds for each watershed, since thresholds vary.

Consider spatial and temporal distribution of forecast data, combined with soil moisture or SWE information (depending on equations) to determine flow rate predictions at key locations, including dam sites.

Complementary to what is already shown to the left, Riverine flash flood prediction in the form of flow rate

predictions at key locations (ideally, someday inundation areas, but that is not anticipated for the current DSS)

Consideration of the spatial distribution of expected precipitation

Quick run-time Easy to use interface (no DOS command prompt, clear

ability to understand the underlying processes) Well-understood, can test multiple scenarios at user

command Ability to intake hourly/15 min forecasts Remote access Graphical representation of weather forecast overlays,

and a map-based GUI component Sharable visuals (evac areas, etc – this is a future nice-

to-have, not anticipated as part of this DSS build)

Riverine flash flood prediction in the form of flow rate predictions at key locations (ideally, someday inundation areas, but that is not anticipated for the current DSS)

Consideration of the spatial distribution of expected precipitation

Quick run-time Easy to use interface (no DOS command prompt, clear

ability to understand the underlying processes) Good level of service for FVA Clusters Ability to test dam operation scenarios Intake of real-time gauging data for display and

calculation purposes, ideally intake of real-time gauging data for data correction/assimilation purposes

Comparison of predicted and actual rainfall and flow rates at key locations, ideally data correction or assimilation to increase accuracy of predictions

Ability to rank data sources and use the best one for the time (ie: radar data supersedes model data, gauged data supersedes radar data, etc.)

Sharable visuals (evac areas, etc – this is a future nice-to-have, not anticipated as part of this DSS build)

Data outputs and products needed

Aggregated precipitation forecasts in 6 hour blocks, and predicted peak flow rates

Tracking or assessment of antecedent conditions -snow and/or soil moisture

Parameters needed to estimate snowpack depletion (temperature, air, etc. – depends on snowmelt method used)

In addition to those to the left, Precipitation forecasts in hourly increments, and

predicted peak flow rates/hydrographs. Comparison against flow thresholds Comparison against dam operations rules

15-min precip- accurate forecasts/data (can be from gauges)

Good interpretation of radar to rainfall or composite gridded precipitation product that can be read by models.

Projected hydrographs to compare against thresholds Accurate thresholds, tied to flow rates

Dam ops rules

Decision Support System Wish List:

• Ability to use multiple weather forecasts and radar for long, short, and now casting

• Functionality– Decision and record keeping tool – Tracking of antecedent conditions– Consider spatial and temporal distribution of forecast data– Quick run-time– Easy to use interface– Intake of real-time gauging data for display and calculation purposes– Comparison of predicted and actual rainfall and flow rates at key locations– Ability to rank data sources and use the best available forecast

• Data outputs and products

TRCA’s Future DSS Requirements

TRCA’s Future DSS Requirements

TRCA’s Future DSS Requirements

Study Process

DSS Evaluation • Identify DSS Software• Complete evaluation matrix and scoring• Identify preferred platform

DSS Standards Development• Gauging network, density and location• Hydrology modelling methodology

DSS Work Plan Development• Prioritise watersheds• Complete cost estimate• Document the work plan

Summary Report

What is a DSS?

Forecast Data- Met forecasts

- Radar products

Realtime Network-Climate-Flows

-Water Levels

DSS- User Interface

- Imports, consolidates, validates, and manipulates forecast/climate data

- Preps Data Input files for Forecast Model- Manages and displays Forecast Model

output- Archiving

- Job Control

Forecast Model• Flows

• Real-time inundation• Reservoir Operations

Flood Messaging /Warning

DSS Evaluation Approach

Preliminary Review• Screening for minimum

requirements• 7 DSSs identified

Detailed Review and Interviews• Interviews and Live

Demo’s• 5 DSSs underwent

detailed review

Evaluation and Scoring• Standardized scoring

matrix DSS Recommendation

Key Considerations

• Selected DSS must be a long-term product from a stable supplier

• Must already be in regular use by water management agencies– Preferably in Canada

• Ability to integrate multiple climate forecast products

• Leverage past investment– Existing flood forecast system– Hydrologic models

Preliminary Review

• Initial review of 7 potential DSS platforms • Initial assessment focused on the following criteria:

– Company Software and Support: DSS product is currently in use and well supported by the company with a long term vision.

– Data Acquisition and Processing: DSS has the ability to gather, validate and process multiple data sources including TRCA’s real-time data collection system, radar sources, and commonly used climate forecasts

– Model Integration and Analysis: DSS can support multiple hydrology/hydraulic modelling platforms.

• Based on the above criteria, DSS platforms were narrowed down to 5 for secondary evaluation

DSSs included in Detailed ReviewFlood Forecasting & Warning DSS Program Operational Flood Forecasting Projects

CHIPCSWMM – Real‐time

Sao Paulo, BrazilToronto, Ontario (Don River Watershed, Pilot Project)Cooksville Creek Watershed, Toronto, Canada

USACEHEC‐RTS

San Diego River Watershed, USASatluj and Beas Basin, TibetMill Creek, Tennessee

DHIMike Operations

National Institute of Hydrology, IndiaChao Phraya River Basin, ThailandSlovenian Environmental Agency (ARSO)ARPA Piedmont, Italy

DeltaresDelft‐FEWs

Tennessee Valley Authority, USASaint John River Basin, New Brunswick, CanadaNational Weather Service (NOAA)> 30 watersheds

InnovyzeFloodWorks/Now ICMLive

Thames River, United KingdomSan Antonio River, USACork County, IrelandBangkok Thailand

Detailed Review - Survey

• Supplied vendors with a 30 question survey– Vendor and Experience

• Company Context• Product Implementation• Internal and External Product Support

– Data Acquisition and Processing• Real-time Dataset Support• Radar Integration• Linkages to Climate Forecasts

– Model Integration & Analysis• Scenario Management• Model Integration/Preferred Model Platform

– Visualization, Data Management and Hardware Requirements• Data Visualization/Storage/Archiving• Hardware Requirements

– Licensing Costs

Detailed Review – Interviews & Demos

• Following survey, interviews were held– Live demonstration– Technical Q&A

• Themes– Limited implementation of flood forecasting and DSS platforms within Canada.

• Platforms has largely been implemented in Europe, Asia, and USA– Development of Flood Forecasting DSS’s have largely been extensions of

existing model platforms• Delft-FEWs is the only platform evaluated that commonly interfaces with differing

modelling platforms. – Technical capabilities are generally similar between DSS’s. Differences include

• Level of local support• How broadly the DSS has been applied• Ease at which multiple climate forecasts can be considered and displayed• Differing levels of user freedom that can be implemented• Cost

Evaluation Summary

Vendor & Experience Data Acquisition and Processing

Model Integration and Analysis

Visualization,Data Management and Hardware Requirements

SoftwareCost

PCSWMMReal‐time

- Well established commercial vendor- Forecast product recently marketed - Local support

- Similar linkages to common climate model forecasts and radar sources

- Scripting ability to link to alternative forecast sources

- Developed to support PCSWMM- 3rd party model adaptors possible

- Similar abilities related to data management/visualization.

- Common scripting abilities allow customization

- Hardware requirements are minimal

- 4K + model license

HEC‐RTS

- Well established institutionalvendor- Long product history- Website states no support to non USACE members…..but

- Developed to support HEC-HMS- 3rd party model adaptors possible

- No licensing costs

MIKEOperations

- Well established commercial vendor- Long product history- Local support

- Developed to supportMIKE-11/SHE- Developing adaptorsfor WATFLOOD, HEC-HMS/RAS

- 20K + model license

Delft‐FEWs

- Well established institutionalvendor- Long product history- North American support

- 80 adaptors for differing hydrologic / hydraulic models

- No licensing costs

FloodWorks(ICMLive)

- Well established commercial vendor- Recent entrant to FF- Canadian support

- Developed to support InfoWorks ICM- 3rd party model adaptors possible

- 40K + model license

Conclusions

• Evaluation considered seven DSS’s, short-listed to five– Focused on literature review, vendor questionnaire, interview, live demonstration

and technical Q&A session

• Delft-FEWs was identified as the recommended DSS– Long history of product development and support (> 15 years)

• Institutional support• Active user community/annual conference

– Has been operationalized at a variety of scales• ~50 worldwide, ~ 20 in North America• Ranging from continental (NOAA National Weather Service, Australian Bureau of

Meteorology,) to regional (St. John River Basin NB and Netherlands)

– Demonstrated ability to integrate with many different modelling platforms

– Highly modular• Riverine flooding/inundation, water quality, groundwater, coastal flooding, real-time

control and optimization

Next Steps

Complete the standards development

Complete the work plan include cost assessment

Prepare NDMP Intake 5 ask for initial system build

Thank You