“NewSpace”The Coming Revolution in Commercial Human Spaceflight

Bigelow Aerospace “Genesis-1”in orbit, July 2006

Manned Orbital

Space Habitat

Deep Space

Space Shuttle (USA) [to 2010?]Ares 1/Orion Block 1 (USA) [from 2014]Soyuz (Russia)Shenzhou (China)

International Space Station [to 2016?]

Ares 1/Ares 5/Orion Block 2 (USA) [from 2018-2020?]- “Apollo on Steroids”

Manned Orbital

Space Habitat

Deep Space

Space Shuttle (USA) [to 2010?] Rocketplane Kistler K-1 OV (USA)Ares 1/Orion Block 1 (USA) [from 2014] PlanetSpace Silver Dart (Canada/USA)Soyuz (Russia) SpaceX Dragon (USA)Shenzhou (China)

International Space Station [to 2016?]Bigelow Aerospace Sundancer (USA)Bigelow Aerospace BA-330 (USA)

Ares1/Ares 5/Orion Block 2 (USA) [from 2018-2020?]CSI Lunar Express (Russia/USA)Deep Space Expedition Alpha (Russia/USA)SpaceX Lunar Dragon? (USA)

Manned SuborbitalVirgin Galactic SpaceShipTwo (USA/UK) Armadillo Aerospace VDR (USA)RpK Rocketplane XP (USA) Starchaser Thunderstar (UK)Blue Origin New Shephard (USA) ARCA Stabilo (Romania)Prodea Explorer (Russia/USA) CANDSPACE Proteus (S.Korea)Planetspace Canadian Arrow (Canada/USA)

OldSpace Major military contractors

Government “cost-plus” contracts($500 hammers)

Large project teams(~20,000 people in United Space Alliance)

Politicised funding (“porkbarrel”)

NewSpace

Small entrepreneurial companies(e.g. Masten Space Systems – 5 full-time employees)

Fixed-price commercial contracts

Rapid development cycle(“Build a lot, fly a lot”)

Off-the-shelf technology

History of Space Commerce 1970's: communication satellites

1980's: earth resources satellites, space manufacturing (ISF)

1990's: navigation (GPS), satellite internet (Iridium, Globalstar, Teledesic)

2000's: space tourism? (Ansari X-Prize)

2010's: commercial space stations? (America's Space Prize)

Virgin Galactic

Carrier aircraft (White Knight 2) and suborbital rocketplane (SpaceShipTwo)

Designed and built by Burt Rutan, funded by Richard Branson

$250M investment

5 spacecraft

2 carrier aircraft

$100M for new spaceport at Upham, New Mexico

140km max altitude, ~5min of microgravity. $200,000 per seat

~200 customers now, est. 500 by first commercial flight

WK2 rollout Farnborough 2007. Spacecraft test flights 2008-2009

British flight test crew

Commercial service 2009

Virgin Galactic

Virgin Galactic

Virgin Galactic

Virgin Galactic

Virgin Galactic

Rocketplane XP

Rebuilt LearJet 25, conversion to suborbital spaceplane

Takeoff under jet power, ignites rocket at altitude

Operating from Oklahoma Spaceport (former Strategic Air Command base).

Pilot + 3 passengers

Space tourism, nanosat launch

First test flight 2008?

Rocketplane XP

Rocketplane XP

Blue Origin

Funded by Jeff Bezos (Amazon.com)

Own private spaceport in Cuthbertson County, TX

VTVL modular design (“New Shepard”)

Nov 2006: First prototype launch successful

Test flights every 1-2 weeks

Manned flights to 100km by 2010

Stabilo (Romania)

Armadillo Aerospace

Founded by John Carmack (creator of Doom, Quake)

8 people working part-time, total spend ~$2.5M

VTVL unmanned tech demos

2004: successful hop test

2004: vehicle crash

Oct 2006: entered NASA Lunar Lander Challenge ($1.3M prizes)

Armadillo Aerospace

COTS NASA programme “Commercial Orbital Transportation Services” (also stands for “Commercial Off-The-Shelf”)

Develop commercial ISS resupply (buy tickets, don't build rockets)

$500M between two companies for cargo transport by 2010, with option for crew transport

Fixed-price contract, dependent on technical milestones

August 2006: Award split between two companies, SpaceX and Rocketplane Kistler

SpaceX

`Founded by Elon Musk (Paypal.com)

Aims to provide launches 3-5x cheaper than US competition

March 2006: Falcon-1 test launch failed, engine fire and shutdown

Q1 2007: Second Falcon-1 test launch

Q1 2007: Test firing Falcon-9 1st stage

Dragon manned capsule under development. First Dragon demo fight 2008, first manned flight 2010?

SpaceX

Launch configuration

On-orbit configuration

Dragon atop SpaceXFalcon-9 launch vehicle

SpaceX Dragon

Rocketplane-Kistler K-1: TSTO, fully reusable, recovery via parachutes & airbags

Launch from Woomera, Australia

Fleet of 5, launch every 2 weeks

Cost: $21M per launch

$207M under COTS programme

Prototype 75% hardware complete now

First launch 2009-2010.

Bigelow Aerospace Bob Bigelow, US hotel entrepreneur

$500M of own money for inflatable manned space station modules (TransHab, ex-NASA program)

1/3-scale test modules- Genesis-I: in orbit- Genesis-II: launch Q1 2007

Sundancer: man-capable module 2009

BA-330: full-scale permanently manned station 2011?

Working with Lockheed-Martin on crew transport

Orbital tourism, commercial research, space manufacturing

Genesis-I in orbit

Why should we care? It's cool

It's British!

Cheaper space operations = less pressure on space science budgets

Cheap/free and frequent flight opportunities for science payloads

Building commercial space infrastructure makes doing anything in space easier, including science.

The UK has a head start in this industry, but it could easily be lost due to governmental, institutional and public indifference.