Newedge Research - Coffee

8 February 2010

Véronique Lashinski, CMT

Technical Analysis +1 312 756 1562

[email protected]

Antoine Halff Energy

+1 646 557 8445 [email protected]

Dan Cekander

Grains +1 312 756 1560

[email protected]

Caile Mulcahy +1 312 756 1561

[email protected]

ICE and LIFFE Coffee Commodities

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NEWEDGE RESEARCH

May ICE Arabica (KCAK0) Coffee: KCAK0 is trending lower. As long as it remains under the median Bollinger line, the medium-term outlook will be bearish. Before that, first resistance is 135, and a close above 135 will signal a short-term corrective bounce, with a potential test of the median Bollinger band. Invalidation: A close above the median Bollinger line would compromise the downtrend. Re-evaluation would be needed. May LIFFE Robusta (LRCK0) Coffee: today’s hammer candlestick points to a short-term corrective bounce, towards 1355-1365. In the medium-term meanwhile, LRCK0 is trending lower, within a descending channel.

In this report: ICE Arabica, daily chart 2

ICE Arabica, weekly chart 2

LIFFE Robusta, daily chart 3

US Dollar / Brazilian Real 3

Forward curves 4

ICE Dollar Index, weekly chart 4

Technical numbers 5

LIFFE Robusta, May / July 10 spread, daily chart 3

ICE Arabica, May / July 10 spread, daily chart 2

ICE and LIFFE Coffee 8 February 2010

Commodity Research Page 2

Daily chart, ICE Arabica, May (KCAK0): KCAK0 is trending lower. As long as it remains under the median Bollin-ger line, the medium-term outlook will be bearish. Before that, first resistance is 135, and a close above 135 will signal a short-term corrective bounce, with a potential test of the median Bollinger band. Invalidation: A close above the me-dian Bollinger line would compromise the downtrend. Re-evaluation would be needed. ICE Arabica, weekly front month continuation (rolled 20 days prior to expiry): Uptrend broken. The underlying trend is now down. ICE Arabica, Spread May / July 10, daily chart, : The spread is trending lower. As long as it remains under –1.30, it is posi-tioned to decline to challenge sup-port at –1.70.



Daily chart, LIFFE Robusta, May(LRCK0): today’s hammer candle-stick points to a short-term corrective bounce, towards 1355-1365. In the medium-term, LRCK0 is trend-ing lower, within a descending chan-nel.

Daily chart, spread, LIFFE Ro-busta, May 10 / July 10 : The spread is trending sideways, within a –26 / -31 range.

A close either above –24 or below—32 is needed to point to a breakout of the range.

USD/ BRL, daily: The pair is forming a potential double top under 1.8969. As long as it re-mains under that level, support at 1.8176 is at risk. Then, a close below 1.8176 would activate the pattern and point to a 0.075-decline. Invalidation: a close above 1.90 would signal the immediate resump-tion of the rise and a test of 1.9213.

Source: Bloomberg



Forward curve, ICE Arabica: The curve is lower, but its overall shape changed little over the past week. Forward curve, LIFFE Robusta: The curve is lower, both on the week and on the month. ICE Dollar Index, weekly continua-tion: The Dollar Index is trending dynamically higher, between the me-dian and the higher Bollinger bands. The RSI is consistent with an up-trend. As long as it remains above the me-dian Bollinger line, the Index will be positioned to challenge 81.80, then the 50% retracement in the vicinity of 82.00. Continued strength in the Dollar in-dex will weigh down commodities priced in that currency, which in-cludes ICE and LIFFE Coffee. Invalidation: a close $1 below the median Bollinger band would be bearish.

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Today — Week ago — Month ago—

Today — Week ago — Month ago—



Source: Newedge and CQG

ICE Arabica CoffeeLast available KCAK0 132.45Moving averages5 Day Moving Avg 133.67 20 Day M.A. 138.98 Short-Term: down10 Day Moving Avg 134.68 40 Day M.A. 142.01 Medium-Term: down100 Day Moving Avg 141.24 200 Day M.A. 137.22 Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Senkou Span B 143.00 Tenkan Sen 134.10 The market is below key medium-termSenkou Span A 142.61 Kijun Sen 139.53 resistance at the cloud.Chikou Span 132.45Directional system+DMI 13.37- DMI 28.00 14 day ADX 22.36 neutral Oscillators14 Day RSI 36.27

13-26-9 MACD -255.02 MACD (signal line) -187.09 8 day S. Stoch. % K 17.05 The % K is above % D, and is rising.8 day S. Stoch. % D 16.48 oversold This points to higher prices.Bollinger Band:Bollinger band (top) 148.76 The market is between the 20-day MABollinger band (low) 129.19 and the lower band: this is a bearish feature.% B 0.17BandWidth 0.14LIFFE Robusta CoffeeCurrent Price LRCK0 1330.00 Net change 0.00Moving averages5 Day Moving Avg 1346.60 20 Day M.A. 1378.65 Short-Term: down10 Day Moving Avg 1355.70 40 Day M.A. 1386.05 Medium-Term: down100 Day Moving Avg 1437.04 200 Day M.A. 1479.99 Long-Term: downIchimoku Kinko Hyo Senkou Span B 1438.50 Tenkan Sen 1345.00 The market is under key medium-term resistanceSenkou Span A 1387.25 Kijun Sen 1379.00 at the cloud.Chikou Span 1330.00Directional system+DMI 14.51- DMI 32.00 14 day ADX 20.33 neutral Oscillators14 Day RSI 35.15

13-26-9 MACD -14.95 MACD (signal line) -10.57 8 day S. Stoch. % K 17.66 8 day S. Stoch. % D 17.92 oversold Bollinger Band:Bollinger band (top) 1437.50 The market is between the 20-day MABollinger band (low) 1319.80 and the lower band: this is a bearish feature.% B 0.09BandWidth 0.09



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