New York State Sea Level Rise Tast Force Report

8/8/2019 New York State Sea Level Rise Tast Force Report

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New York State Sea Level Rise Task ForceReport to the Legislature

DRAFT

DraftforPublicComment November 2010


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SeaLevelRiseTaskForceMembersPete

Grannis,Former Commissioner,NYS

Department

ofEnvironmental

Conservation, Task

ForceChair

FredAnders,Chief,NaturalResourcesManagement,DepartmentofState(representingRuthNoemColn,Acting

SecretaryofState)

JohnGibb,Director,StateOfficeofEmergencyManagement

FredNuffer,PublicAssistanceLiason,MitigationPrograms,StateOfficeofEmergencyManagement(representing

JohnGibb.Director,StateOfficeofEmergencyManagement)

IvanLafayette,DeputyInsuranceSuperintendentforCommunityAffairs,DepartmentofInsurance(representing

JamesWrynn,Superintendent,DepartmentofInsurance)

RichardSvenson,DirectoroftheDivisionofEnvironmentalHealthProtection,DepartmentofHealth(representing

RichardF.Daines,M.D.,Commissioner,DepartmentofHealth)

LisaWeiss,Route9AUrbanDesignDirector(representingStanleyGee,ActingCommissioner,Departmentof

Transportation)

AdamFreed,DeputyDirector,NewYorkCityMayorsOfficeofLongTermPlanningandSustainability

CarrieMeekGallagher,CommissionerofEnvironmentandEnergy,SuffolkCounty

MichaelGerrard,AndrewSabinProfessorofProfessionalPracticeandDirector,ColumbiaLawSchoolCenterfor

ClimateChangeLaw

GerceidaJones,

Professor

of

Astronomy,

New

York

University

JackMattice,Director,NewYorkSeaGrant(retired)

JerryMulligan,Commissioner,WestchesterCountyDepartmentofPlanning

SarahNewkirk,CoastalProgramDirector,TheNatureConservancy

BradTito,DeputyDirectorofEnvironmentalCoordination,OfficeoftheNassauCountyExecutive

JamesStaudenraus,VicePresidentofOperations,GeorgeHenryLtd

JohnWalters,III,Chief,PortWashingtonFireDepartment


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Acknowledgements

TheNew

York

State

Sea

Level

Rise

Task

Force

was

created

by

an

act

of

the

New

York

State

Legislature

(Chapter613oftheLawsofNewYork)inAugust2007.NewYorkStateDepartmentofEnvironmental

Conservation(DEC)CommissionerPeteGrannis,ChairoftheTaskForce,assignedSpecialCounselRobin

Schlafftoestablishandchairasteeringcommittee.KristinMarcellservedassteeringcommitteevice

chair.

Thesteeringcommittee,comprisedofstateagencystaffandrepresentativesofnongovernmental

organizations

(NGOs),

spent

an

extraordinary

amount

of

time

researching,

discussing

and

deliberating

issuesaddressedinthereport.Membersofthesteeringcommitteecoordinatedtheworkoffivework

groups:CommunityResilience,EcosystemsandNaturalResources,Infrastructure,LegalandPublic

Outreach. Eachworkgroupincludedrepresentativesfromacademia,businesses,NGOs,environmental

justiceandcommunitygroups,andfederal,stateandlocalagencies. Thisreportistheresultoftheir

efforts,andtheTaskForcegratefullyacknowledgestheircontributions.

ProjectionsofsealevelriseaffectingNewYorkStatewereprovidedbytheColumbiaUniversityCenter

forClimate

Systems

Research

based

on

work

undertaken

for

the

New

York

City

Panel

on

Climate

Change.

AlanBelensz,DirectoroftheDECOfficeofClimateChange,providedacriticalreviewofanearlydraft.

AdditionalDECstaffcontributorstowriting,editingandproductionofthisreportincludeAudreyTheir,

ElaineBloom,BernadetteLaMannaandEllenBidell. KimFarrowandMaryKadlecekmaintainedtheSea

LevelRiseTaskForcewebpage.MarkLoweryprovidededitorialassistanceandmanagedpublicoutreach

efforts.

Thedevelopmentofthisreportincludedapublicreviewofthesealevelriseprojections,theTaskForce

processandanearlydraftofthereportandrecommendations.Throughouttheprocess,participationof

stakeholdersandtheirthoughtfulcommentsimprovedthequalityofthereport.


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TableofContents

ExecutiveSummary

.................................................................................................................

5

Introduction............................................................................................................................ 8

KeyTerms......................................................................................................................................10

SeaLevelRise:CausesandProjections...........................................................................................11

HazardsofSeaLevelRise...............................................................................................................13

Findings

.................................................................................................................................

15

Recommendations................................................................................................................ 16

Ecosystems............................................................................................................................ 17

Low toModerateEnergyShorelines.............................................................................................20

SubmergedAquaticVegetation......................................................................................................21

BarrierIslands................................................................................................................................22

CoastalBluffs.................................................................................................................................23

MarineRockyIntertidalAreas........................................................................................................24

FreshwaterResources....................................................................................................................24

Ecosystems:ActionsNeededtoAdapttoSeaLevelRise.................................................................25

PublicWorksandInfrastructure............................................................................................ 28

Communications............................................................................................................................

31

Energy............................................................................................................................................31

ShorelineProtectiveStructures......................................................................................................31

SolidWaste....................................................................................................................................32

Transportation...............................................................................................................................33

Drinking

Water

Supplies

.................................................................................................................

33

WastewaterManagementSystems................................................................................................34

PublicWorksandInfrastructure:ActionsNeededtoAdapttoSeaLevelRise.................................35


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Communities......................................................................................................................... 37

PublicHealth..................................................................................................................................41

LossofShelter................................................................................................................................41

DisruptedLivelihoodsandLossofEconomicVitality.......................................................................42

QualityofLifeandCommunityCohesion........................................................................................42

Communities:ActionsNeededtoAdapttoSeaLevelRise..............................................................44

MeetingtheChallenge.......................................................................................................... 48

Recommendationsof

the

Sea

Level

Rise

Task

Force

..............................................................

52

AppendixA:MembersoftheTaskForceandWorkgroups.................................................... 77

AppendixB:PublicOutreachSummary................................................................................. 84

AppendixC:OrganizationalFramework................................................................................ 86

AppendixD:SummaryofStateSeaLevelRise(SLR)PolicyDevelopmentMidAtlanticand

Northeast.............................................................................................................................. 88


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ExecutiveSummary

NewYork

State's

extensive

ocean

coastline

has

places

that

we

know,

that

we

remember

and

that

have

shapedusinsomeway.Atmorethan3,000miles,thestatescoastlineincludesmanynotablelocations

MontaukPoint,ConeyIsland,RobertMosesStatePark,BatteryParkandtheHudsonRiver'sshoresfrom

NewYorkCitytothefederaldamatTroy.Morethan60%ofNewYorkersliveinhomesonornearthese

waterfrontareas.EachshorelineareaisuniqueandpartoftheessenceofNewYork.Buttheseplaceswill

changeassealevelrises,andthedifferenceswillbecomemoreobviousastheseacontinuestoriseto

unprecedentedlevels.Aresultoftheworldschangingclimate,arisingseawillaltermorethanjustthe

coastline.The

entire

state

will

feel

the

effects

as

residents

and

asignificant

amount

of

the

landscape

are

impacted.TheseareasarediverseandinterconnectedandshareNewYorksrichagriculture,commercial,

economicandenvironmentalhistoryandresources.

ThecommunitiesalongNewYorkState'scoastline,includingtheirstructures,theirresidents,their

environmentandthesurroundingnaturalresources,areproductsofdecisionsmadeoverthecourseof

manyyears.Thesedecisionsshapeddecadesofinvestment,developmentandconservation.Whilethe

extentof

the

impacts

to

coastal

communities

from

arising

sea

are

not

fully

known,

even

the

most

conservativeprojectionsmakeclearthattherewillbedramaticchangesinthiscentury.Thus,how

coastalcommunitiesandourstateaddressthiscollectivechallengeisimportanttotoday'sdecision

makers.Theresponsesneededtoprotectcommunitiesfromthethreatposedbysealevelrisewilltake

time,andnowthatthechallengesarebetterunderstood,governmentisobligatedtoprotectitscitizens

whilethereistimetodosoeffectively.NewYorkmustfocusonthesmartuseoflimitedresourcesto

addresstheimpactsassociatedwithsealevelrise.

THESEALEVELRISETASKFORCE

In2007,theNewYorkStateLegislaturecreatedtheSeaLevelRiseTaskForceandchargeditwith

preparingareportthataddressestheseissues,includingrecommendationsforanactionplantoprotect

coastalcommunitiesandnaturalresourcesfromrisingsealevels.TheNewYorkStateDepartmentof

EnvironmentalConservationleadstheTaskForce,whichhasadiversemembershipthatincludes

representativesof

state

and

local

government

agencies,

non

governmental

organizations

and

affected

communities.ThelegislaturedirectedtheTaskForcetoevaluatewaysofprotectingNewYorks

remainingcoastalecosystemsandnaturalhabitats,andincreasingcoastalcommunityresilienceinthe

faceofsealevelrise,applyingthebestavailablescienceastosealevelriseanditsanticipatedimpacts.

TheTaskForcehasstudiedanddeliberated,withpublicparticipation,thecomplexissuesinvolvedwith

l l i i N Y k S Thi i l di fi di d d i i h l f h


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THESEAISRISING

Ourclimate

is

changing,

causing

the

worlds

seas

to

rise.

Since

1970,

New

York

State

has

witnessed

incrementallyhigherincreasesinaveragetemperaturesthantherestoftheUnitedStates,anincrease

nearlytwicetheglobalaverage.Thesechangeshaveresultedinwarmerwintersandhottersummers

andotherchangesintheformoffewer,butheaviersnowsandheavier,moreintenserainfalland

storms.Thewarmingproducedbyglobalclimatechangecausesthesealeveltorisebecausewarmer

watertakesupmorespaceandhighertemperaturesaremeltingicesheetsaroundtheglobe.NewYork

Harborhasexperiencedanincreaseinsealevelofmorethan15inchesinthepast150years,with

harbortide

gauges

showing

arise

of

between

4and

6inches

since

1960.

TheTaskForcelookedtothebestavailablesciencetoestimatepotentialsealevelrise.Notallregionsof

themarinecoastwillbeimpactedinthesameway,andthisreportfocusesonestimatesfortwoareas:

thelowerHudsonValleyandLongIsland,andthemidHudsonValleyandCapitalRegion.Sealevelrise

affectingtheLowerHudsonValleyandLongIslandisprojectedtobe2to5inchesbythe2020sand12

to23inchesbytheendofthiscentury.However,rapidmeltoflandbasedicecoulddoublethese

projectionsin

the

next

few

decades,

with

apotential

rise

of

up

to

55

inches

by

the

end

of

the

century.

SealevelriseinthemidHudsonValleyandCapitalRegionwillbesomewhatlessbutwillfollowsimilar

trends.Thecombinationofrisingsealevel,continuingclimatechange,andmoredevelopmentinhigh

riskareashaveraisedthelevelofNewYorksvulnerabilitytopowerfulcoastalstorms.Without

meaningfulactiononanumberofkeyfronts,thisvulnerabilitywillincreaseinareaandmagnitudeover

time.

EVERYNEWYORKTIDALCOASTALCOMMUNITYWILLBEAFFECTEDBYSEALEVELRISE

SealevelrisewillhavedramaticimplicationsforNewYorkscoastalcommunitiesandtheirnatural

resources,affectingtheentireoceanandestuarinecoastlineofthestate.Everycommunityalongthe

HudsonRiverfromthefederaldamatTroytoNewYorkHarborandalongLongIslandSoundandthe

Atlanticcoastlinewillbeaffected.

Sealevelrisewillcontinuetoincreasetherisktodevelopedareas,futuredevelopmentandcoastal

habitatswhicharealreadyhighlyvulnerabletopowerfulcoastalstorms.Manyneighborhoodsandtheir

associatedbuildings,roads,andutilitieswillbedirectlyaffected,withthemostvulnerablecommunities

permanentlyinundated.


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eventsandfloodingwillbemoreoverwhelmedinareaswheretheintensityofimpactsincreases.

Secondaryimpactssuchaswaterbornepollutionassociatedwithfloodingofcontaminatedlands

locatedthroughout

coastal

communities

may

affect

water

quality

and

ecosystems.

Public

health

will

be

furtheraffectedbyvectorbornediseasesandimpactstowatersuppliescausedbychangesinrainfall,

heatandsaltwaterintrusion.

NewYorksnaturalresourcesandecosystemswillbegreatlyimpactedbythehumanresponsetosea

levelrise.Naturalsystemssuchaswetlandscurrentlyprovidecriticalbenefits,includingflood

protection,tocoastalcommunitiesonalargescaleatalmostnocost.Thesebenefitswouldbe

prohibitivelyexpensive

to

replicate

with

human

engineered

solutions.

Responses

that

harden

the

coastline,suchasseawallsandbulkheads,preventnaturalsystemsfrommigratinginlandaswater

levelsincrease,leavingthemtodrowninplace.Particularlyinlessurbanizedareas,thesechoicesmay

bemoreexpensiveandlesseffectiveoverthelongtermthanrelocationorelevationofatrisk

structures.Inaddition,suchsolutionswillalsolimitpublicaccesstobeaches.

THETASKFORCEREPORT

TheTaskForceworkedformorethantwoyearstoproducethisreport.Thereportexaminesthe

complexitiesofsealevelriseanditsimplicationsforNewYorkinthetwentyfirstcentury.Itincludes9

findingsand14specificrecommendationsforaction.

Thereportsfindingscoalescearoundtheneedforimmediateaction.Everyday,NewYork'sresidents,

governmentsandbusinessesmakedecisionsthataffectthefuturevulnerabilityof thestatescoastline.

Themagnitude

and

scope

of

the

challenge

posed

by

sea

level

rise

require

that

relevant

and

accurate

informationaboutclimaterisk,resilienceandadaptationbecomepartoftheseeverydaydecisions.The

vulnerabilitiesofcoastalcommunitiesmustbeinventoriedandassessed,andthisinformationshared

withresidentsofatriskcommunities.Appropriateresponsesmustbeformulatedandimplemented.

Governmentpoliciesandactionsmustbecoordinatedandprioritizedtoassistcommunitiesatgreatest

andmostimmediateriskinthemostcosteffectivewaysandinwaysthatrecognizetheimportanceof

ournaturalcoastalresourcesandtheirroleinNewYorksfuture.Theseeffortsmustbeguidedby

accuratescience,

up

to

date

mapping

and

effective

planning

tools.

WehopethattheTaskForcesworkwillsparkaction.Thepublicanditsgovernmentsmustbeinvested

inmeetingthechallengeofsealevelrise.Thechallengeisreal,andsealevelrisewillprogressregardless

ofNewYorksresponse.


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Introduction

Thesea

is

rising,

driven

by

changes

in

global

climate,

and

New

York

States

low

lying

marine

and

estuarinecoastalareastheirpeople,businesses,infrastructure,andecosystemsareatrisk.Morethan

62%ofNewYork'spopulationlivesinmarinecoastalcounties,andtheseareashavetremendous

economicvalueintermsofcommerceandnaturalbenefitssuchashabitat,waterqualityimprovement,

floodcontrol,andstormprotection.SealevelalongNewYork'scoasthasbeenrisingattherateof

almostonefootpercenturyforatleast100years,resultinginmoreseverestormimpacts,shoreline

erosion,andcoastalfloodingexperiencedbycoastalcommunitiestoday.Therateofriseisexpectedto

increasewith

global

warming,

perhaps

doubling

over

the

next

century.

1

Apowerfulcoastalstormoccurringtodayposesgreatdangerto

theregion,andthisthreatwillintensifyassealevelcontinuesto

rise.NewYorkStatemustinitiateactiontosafeguarditsnatural

resources,humancommunitiesandeconomicassets.Wemust

worktoincreasecommunityresiliencethecapacitytowithstand

orrecoverfromlossordamagewhileembracingalongterm

commitmenttounderstandevolvingthreatsandadjustresponses

intothefuture.

TheSeaLevelRiseTaskForce(TaskForce)wasestablishedby

statutein2007.2Itwaschargedwithsummarizingwhatisknown

abouttheimpactofsealevelriseandrecommendingactionsthatwillbothprotectcoastalecosystems

andhelphumancoastalcommunitiestoincreaseresilienceandadapttorisingsealevels.TheTaskForce

wasnot

charged

with

studying

other

climate

related

impacts

to

ouroceans,suchasacidification,changestooceancurrentsand

othereffectsofwarmingoceantemperatures.

Infrastructurecriticaltoboththestate

andnationaleconomieswillbesubjected

toincreasedriskofcoastalstormdamage

assealevelrises.

TheNewYorkStateDepartmentofEnvironmentalConservation

leadstheTaskForce,whoseworkgroupsincluderepresentatives

frommultiplestateagenciesandauthorities,federalandlocal

government,community

and

non

governmental

organizations,

businessesandacademia.3

Risingseasthreatentopermanently

inundatevaluablecoastalhabitats.


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TheTaskForcehassoughtpubliccommentandengagementthroughouttheprocessofdevelopingthis

report.4

AlthoughtheTaskForceseffortistheonlyonefocused

primarilyonsealevelriseinNewYorkState,itexists

withinalargercontextofcomplementaryinitiativesthat

haveexaminedclimatechangeandcoastalhazards.5

Thewidevarietyofstate,localgovernmentandprivate

partnersparticipatingincurrenteffortstoassessclimate

changeriskareusingthesameprojectionsofsealevel

riseandcoastalhazardsindevelopingpolicyforNew

YorkState.Theyalsoagreeonthetypesofactionsthat

shouldbetakentoreducelongtermvulnerabilityinour

coastalareas.Thisworkwillnowhelpshapetheefforts

oftheNewYorkStateClimateActionCouncil(CAC)asit

draftsthestatesClimateActionPlan.

Thoughscientificandpolicyunknownsremain,inactionis

notaresponsibleoption.NewYorkState,workingwith

otherlevelsofgovernment,needstoaddressthe

challengespresentedbysealevelrise,evenascoastal

communitiesandecosystemsareincreasinglyaffected.

The

following

discussion

outlines

the

basic

hazards

and

challengesofsealevelriseandpresentstheTaskForces

recommendationsforprotectingthestates

communitiesbothhumanbuiltandnaturalinthefaceofthesedangers.

CountiesImpactedby

SeaLevelRise

Albany Bronx Columbia Dutchess Greene Kings(Brooklyn) Nassau NewYork(Manhattan) Orange Putnam Queens Rensselaer Richmond(Staten

Island)

Rockland Suffolk Ulster Westchester

4SeeAppendixB:PublicOutreachSummary.


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KeyTerms6

Beachnourishment:

the

addition

of

sand,

often

dredged

from

offshore,

to

an

eroding

shoreline

toenlargeorcreateabeacharea,offeringtemporaryshoreprotectionandrecreational

opportunities

Coast:Inthisreport,thistermreferstoNewYorkStatesmarinecoastlineonly,nottotheGreat

Lakesorotherinlandcoastlines.

Coastalhazards:impactsassociatedwithsealevelrise,stormsurge,winddrivenwavesand

erosion

CoastalRisk

Management

Zone:

areas

to

be

classified

as

currently

at

significant

risk

of

coastal

floodingduetostormsandareasprojectedtobeathighriskoffloodingfromprojectedsealevel

riseandstrongstorms

Ecosystemservices:thebenefitspeopleobtainfromecosystemsthatcommunitieswouldhave

toreplaceartificiallyifthenaturalsystemswerelost.Thesebenefitsincludefloodcontrol,water

qualityimprovementandstormprotection.

Naturalprotectivefeatures:naturalsystemssuchaswetlands,dunes,barrierislandsand

aquaticvegetation

that

provide

large

scale

flood

protection

from

wind

driven

waves

and

storm

surgeaswellasmanyotherhumanandecosystembenefits

Nonstructuralshorelineprotectionornonstructuralmeasures:elevationand/orrelocationof

structuresandtheircontentstolimitflooddamageoraccommodationoffloodwaters(taking

noprotectiveactionaswaterrises)

Shoreprotection:arangeofactivitiesthatfocusonprotectinglandfrominundation,erosionor

storminducedfloodingthroughtheconstructionofvariousstructuresortheadditionof

sedimentsto

the

shore

Softshoreprotection,shorelinesofteningorsoftengineering:amethodofshoreprotection

thatpreventsshoreerosionthroughtheuseofnaturalmaterialssimilartothosealreadyfound

inagivenlocation,suchasaddingsandtoanerodingbeachorplantingvegetationwithroots

thatretainsoilsalongtheshore

Structuralshorelineprotectionorstructuralmeasures:constructionssuchasjetties,bulkheads,

dikes,riprapandseawallsdesignedtolessenoreliminatetheerosiveeffectofwaveson

propertyor

infrastructure.

Similar

terms

are

shoreline

hardening

and

traditional

shoreline

stabilization.TheStateofNewYorkconsidersbeachnourishmenttobeasoftstructural

measure.


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SeaLevelRise:CausesandProjections

Sealevelriseiscausedbyacomplexsuiteoffactors.Climatechangecontributestoglobalsealevelrise

intwoways:1)higherseawatertemperaturescausethevolumeofseawatertoincrease,aphenomenon

knownasthermalexpansionand2)meltingicecaps,glaciersandicesheetsincreasethetotalamount

ofseawater.

Inaddition,thelandsurfaceisslowlysinkingincoastalregionsofNewYorkState,withtheexceptionof

theHudsonEstuarynorthofKingston.Thismovementisaresultofgeologicalforcesandimpactsof

humanactivityanddevelopment.Itaffectslocal,orrelative,ratesofsealevelrise.Effectsofalltypesof

sealevel

rise

are

compounded

by

potential

increases

in

extreme

precipitation

and

storms

associated

withclimatechange.

Theinterplayofthesevariousfactorsandthegapsinourcurrentknowledgemakeprecisesealevel

predictionsforanygivengeographicareadifficult.However,allmodelsagreethattheoutlookforour

regionisdramaticandwillchangethecoastinfundamentalways.TheNewYorkCityPanelonClimate

ChangeandthedraftNewYorkStateClimateImpactsAssessment(ClimAID)aggregatedtheprojections

formean

annual

sea

level

rise

shown

in

Table

1below.

The

New

York

State

Climate

Action

Council

is

usingtheseprojectionsindevelopingitsClimateActionPlan,andtheTaskForcehaschosentousethis

rangeofprojectionsasthefoundationforitsriskassessmentsandrecommendations.

TABLE1:ProjectedSeaLevelRiseinNewYork1

LowerHudsonValley&Long

Island

2020s 2050s 2080s

Sealevelrise2

2to5in 7to12in 12to23in

Sealevelrise

withrapidice

meltscenario3


MidHudsonValley&Capital

Region

2020s 2050s 2080s

Sealevelrise2 1to4in 5to9in 8to18in

Sealevelrisewithrapidice

meltscenario3



14/93

TheseprojectionsaresupportedbyempiricaldatadocumentingrecentratesofsealevelriseinNew

YorkState.Forexample,gaugesattheNewYorkCityBatteryindicatethatsealevelinthe2000sis4to6

incheshigher

than

in

the

early

1960s.

7

The

New

York

City

Panel

on

Climate

Change

found

that

as

global

temperatureshaveincreased,theregionalsealevelhasrisenmorerapidlyinthepast100to150years

thanoverthelast1,000years.8

Beyondmodelsandmeasurements,NewYorkershavetheirownfirsthandexperiencetoconfirmthat

thedangersoffloodingandstormsurgesexacerbatedbyrisingwatersarerealandimmediate.

FiveCategory3hurricaneshavemadefirstlandfallinNewEnglandsince1900.Withtheexceptionof

one,all

made

landfall

along

Long

Island's

coastline.9

In

1938,

the

Great

New

England

Hurricane

or

Long

IslandExpressstruckLongIslandcommunitieswithdevastatingresults.Wavesupto50feethigh

submergedlowlyingareas,hundredsofhomesweredestroyed,andatleast50liveswerelost.The

stormwouldhavebeenconsideredaCategory3using

today'smeasurementscaleforhurricaneintensity.Ifthe

samehurricaneweretohitnow,withcurrentlevelsof

coastaldevelopmentinNewYorkandNewEngland,the

totalinsured

loss

to

commercial

and

residential

property

associatedwiththestormsurgefloodingalonehasbeen

estimatedatbetween$6billionand$10.5billion(2008

dollars).10

Twentyfouryearslater,in1962,apowerfulNoreaster

knownastheAshWednesdayStormstrucktheeastern

thirdof

the

United

States,

generating

ocean

waves

of

20

to30feet.11SurgeattheBatterywasmorethan7.5feet

andmorethan9feetatWilletsPointinQueens.Eastof

FireIslandInlet,twoandahalfdays(fivehightides)ofhighwatercarvedthroughdunesandcreateda

newinlet1,200feetwideatWesthamptonBeach.ConeyIslandwasentirelyinundated.

Only

a

small,

sagging

portion

of

the

main

buildingoftheWestBayBeachClubinQuantuck,Suffolk

County,remainedafterthe1938"LongIsland

Express"hurricane.

7Colle,B.A.,K.Rojowsky,andF.Buonaiuto.2010.NewYorkCitystormsurges:Climatologyandananalysisofthe

windandcycloneevolution.JournalofAppliedMeteorologyandClimatology49:85100.PubID#3772.

8NewYorkCityPanelonClimateChangeClimateRiskInformation,

http://www.nyc.gov/html/om/pdf/2009/NPCC_CRI.pdf


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AtSeagate,wavesovertoppedandseverelydamagedtimberbulkheads.InJamaicaBay,lowlyingareas

werecompletelyflooded.TheRockawaysexperiencedsevereerosionandlosteighthomes.Estimatesof

damageon

Staten

Island,

Brooklyns

South

Shore,

the

Rockaways,

Long

Beach

Island,

Long

Island,

Fire

Island,WestchesterandthePeconicshorelinetotaledmorethan$220millionintodaysdollars

(adjustedforinflation).12

Morerecently,aNoreasteronDecember11and12,1992causedastormsurgeofnearly7.75feetat

theBattery,propelledbywindgustsof80to90mph.TunnelsandsubwaysinlowerManhattanflooded,

asdidportionsoftheManhattanEastsideFDRdrive,areasofSeagate,BroadChannelandmanycoastal

townsonLongIsland.

NewYorkhasalwaysbeenvulnerabletotropicalstorms,hurricanesandmorecommonly

Noreasters.Withoutactiontoreducecommunityvulnerability,similarstormswillinthefuturethreaten

manymorelives,publicinfrastructureandprivatepropertyinNewYorkscoastalareasduetoever

increasingdevelopmentandpopulationgrowth.Withelevatedsealevelsandassociatedhigherstorm

surges,thegeographicextentofvulnerableareasanddamagewillincreasedramatically.

Inaddition

to

the

devastating

impacts

of

these

acute

events,

gradually

encroaching

seawater

will

have

chronic,incrementaleffectsoncoastalecosystemstructureandfunctionsandonhumanusesofthe

coast.

HazardsofSeaLevelRise

Sealevelrise,byitselfandincombinationwithothercoastalhazards,suchasintensestormsandthe

effectsofclimatechange,willhavemanyinteractingconsequences.

RisingWaterTable

Highergroundwaterlevelsmaysubmergeinfrastructureelements,interferingwiththeirfunctionand

preventingaccess.Failedsepticsystemscancreatepublichealthproblemsandharmecosystems.Saline

groundwatercancorrodevulnerableinfrastructurecomponents.Ahigherwatertablealsoreducesthe

abilityofthesoiltoabsorbrunoff,increasingthelikelihoodofflooding.

SaltwaterIntrusion

Asseawaterrises,itencroachesuponestuarine,brackishandfreshwaterenvironments,increasingtheir

salinityandpermanentlyalteringecosystems.Saltwaterintrusionalsothreatensaquifersandother

freshwatersourcesofpublicdrinkingwater.


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InundationandFlooding

Permanentinundationreferstothoseareasthatarecompletelyunderwaterorareunderwaterfora

portionof

each

day.

Frequently

flooded

areas

experience

inundation

regularly,

in

contrast

to

episodically

floodedareas,whichareatriskonlyfromextremeweatherevents.Risingsealevelswillexpandthe

areasexperiencingalltypesofinundationandfloodingandpushtheirboundariesfurtherinland.

Episodesofseverefloodingwillalsobecomemorefrequentasthesearises.13

StormSurge

Stormsurgeisadramaticelevationoftheoceansurfacethatleadstorapidflooding.Itiscausedbythe

combinedeffectsofoceanwaterpushedlandwardduringastorm,lowpressureattheseasurface,and

hightides.Withhigherbaselinesealevels,theeffectsofstormsurgewillbefeltfurtherinland.Increasedstormintensitywillcompoundcoastalerosionanddamagefromstormsurge.

Realisticprojectionsoftheeffectofthesephenomenainanygivenlocationovertimearecrucialin

ordertoproperlyplantoreducerisk.Development,humanpopulationsandecosystemswillinteract

withsealevelriseandrelatedcoastalhazardsandwitheachother,accordingtolocalcircumstances.

Thefollowingdiscussionsummarizesthemajorelementsthatwillaffectandbeaffectedbysealevel

rise.


17/93

Findings1.Sealevelriseandcoastalfloodingfromstormsurgearealreadyimpactingandwillincreasingly

affectNewYorksentireoceanandestuarinecoastlinefromMontaukPointtotheBatteryandup

theHudsonRivertothefederaldamatTroy.NewYorkmustactnowtoaddressthechallengeof

sealevelrise.

2.

The

likelihood

that

powerful

storms

will

hit

New

York

States

coastline

is

very

high,

as

is

the

associatedthreattohumanlifeandcoastalinfrastructure.Thisvulnerabilitywillincreaseinarea

andmagnitudeovertime.

3.Naturalshorelinefeaturessuchaswetlands,aquaticvegetation,dunesandbarrierbeaches

currentlyprovidelargescaleservicessuchasfloodprotection,stormbuffering,fisherieshabitat,

recreationalfacilitiesandwaterfiltrationatalmostnocost.Theseserviceswouldbeprohibitively

expensivetoreplicatewithhumanbuiltsystems.NewYorkislosingtidalmarshesatarapidpace

andwiththemthenaturalinfrastructurethatprotectstheshorefromfloods,waveattackand

erosion.

4.Sealevelrisewillcauseallshorelineecosystemstobecomemorefrequentlyinundated.Low

lyinglocationswillbecomepermanentlysubmerged.Habitatsandthespeciesassociatedwiththem

maymigratelandward;this,however,willbeimpededbythedensityofdevelopmentonmuchof

thestatesshorelineandthewidespreadhardeningofthatshoreline.

5.CurrentinvestmentandlanduseplanningpracticesbybothNewYorkStateandlocal

governmentsareencouragingdevelopmentinareasathighriskofcoastalfloodinganderosion.

6.Overthelongterm,cumulativeenvironmentalandeconomiccostsassociatedwithstructural

protectionmeasuressuchasseawalls,dikes,andbeachnourishmentareexpectedtobeseveral

timesmoreexpensiveandlesseffectivethannonstructuralmeasuressuchaselevationofatrisk

structuresandplannedrelocationawayfromthecoastalshoreline.

7.Aswaterlevelsrise,shoreprotectionstructuresalongthestatescoastlinewilllimitpublicaccess

tobeachesastheyeliminatethepubliclyaccessibleintertidalzone.

8.ExistingmapsofNewYorkStatescoastthatidentifycommunities,habitatsandinfrastructureat

i k f fl di d i i f d d il d h f l i


18/93

RecommendationsAdoptofficialprojectionsofsealevelriseandensurecontinuedandcoordinatedadaptationefforts.

Requirestateagenciesresponsibleforthemanagementandregulationofresources,infrastructure,

andpopulationsatriskfromsealevelrisetofactorthecurrentandanticipatedimpactsintoall

relevant

aspects

of

decision

making.

Classifyareaswheresignificantriskofcoastalfloodingduetostormshasbeenidentifiedand

implementriskreductionmeasuresinthoseareas.

Identifyandclassifyareasoffutureimpactsfromoceancoastalfloodingfromprojectedsealevelrise

andstormstoreduceriskinthoseareas.

Reduce

vulnerability

in

coastal

areas

at

risk

from

sea

level

rise

and

storms.

Support

increased

reliance

onnonstructuralmeasuresandnaturalprotectivefeaturestoreduceimpactsfromcoastalhazards.

Developmapsandothertoolsrequiredtoassistlocaldecisionmakersinpreparingforand

respondingtosealevelrise.

AmendNewYorkStatelawsandchangeandadoptregulationsandagencyguidancedocumentsto

addresssealevelriseandpreventfurtherlossofnaturalsystemsthatreduceriskofcoastalflooding.

Providefinancialsupport,guidanceandtoolsforcommunitybasedvulnerabilityassessmentsand

ensureahighlevelofcommunityrepresentationandparticipationinofficialvulnerability

assessmentsandpoststormrecoveryandredevelopmentandadaptationplanningprocesses.

Undertakeacomprehensiveassessmentofthepublichealthrisksassociatedwithsealevelrise,

coastalhazardsandclimatechangeincludingcompromisedindoorairquality,drinkingwater

impacts,posttraumaticstressandothermentalhealthproblems,increasesindiseasevectors,

impaired

access

to

health

care

and

loss

of

reliable

access

to

food

and

medical

supplies.

Raisepublicawarenessoftheadverseimpactsofsealevelriseandclimatechangeandofthe

potentialadaptivestrategies.

Developmechanismstofundadaptationtosealevelriseandclimatechange.


19/93

Ecosystems

Intact

natural

systems

are

essential

to

the

health

and

functioning

of

the

coasts

ecological

and

human

communities.Theyperformawidevarietyofeconomicallyvaluablefunctions14includingwaterquality

protection,watersupply,commercialandrecreationalfishproduction,floodmitigation,recreation,

carbonstorageandstormbuffering.They

provideimportanthabitatforplantsand

wildlife.Shorelinevistas,beachesandopen

spacesdefinecoastalcommunitycharacter

and

quality

of

life

for

residents

and

visitors.

Althoughecosystemchangeovertimeisa

naturalprocess,acceleratedsealevelriseand

relatedcoastalimpactscausedbyclimate

changewillleadtofundamentalchangesin

thenatureofcoastalhabitat.Typicalsalt

marshvegetationcouldbelostwhenmarshes

areinundated.Deeperwaterorlargerbays

couldleadtohigherwaveenergythatcould

causefurthererosionandmarshloss.

Withinundation,nearshorehabitatstendto

migratelandwardasshorelineecosystems

convertfromonehabitattypetoanotherand

thespecies

present

also

shift.

To

the

extent

thathumandevelopmentinhibitsthese

naturalshiftsinresponsetosealevelrise,we

risklosingmanyvaluablecoastalresources

andecologicalfunctionsaltogether.

AnumberofsaltmarshesonthesouthshoreofLongIslandand

alongtheLongIslandSoundhavebeenlostthroughconversionto

intertidalmudflatsorsubmergencebelowthewatersurface.


20/93

Propertydamagecausedbysealevelriseandstormsurgesislikelytopromptgreaterpublicdemandfor

shorelinestabilizationandprotectivestructuressuchasbulkheads,berms,seawalls,groinsandjetties.

Suchmeasures,however,preventtheshorelineanditsassociatedspeciesfrommovinglandward.They

alsodisruptthesedimentsupply,hinderingtheformationandadaptationofmanyshorelinefeatures,

includingtheabilityofbeach,duneandbarrierislandsystemstomigratelandward.Inaddition,thesestructureswillimpairpublicaccessaswaterlevelsriseandwillhaveotherunintendedconsequences.

Forexample,theycanaltertidalandwaveenergy,causingdamagetowetlandsandparksandother

waterfrontamenities.Whiletheyoffershorttermprotection,traditionalshorelinestabilization

structuresmaynotbethebestchoicetoreducethevulnerabilityofpropertyandresourcestocoastal

hazards.

CoastalNaturalResourcesProvideSignificantHumanBenefits

AtwoyeareconomicstudycommissionedbytheNewJerseyDepartmentofEnvironmental

Protectionin

2004

established

values

for

some

ecosystem

services

provided

by

coastal

wetlands,beachesandestuariesinNewJersey.Ecosystemservicesarethebenefitspeopleobtain

fromecosystems,suchasfloodcontrol,waterqualityimprovement,carbonstorage,andstorm

protectionthatcommunitieswouldhavetoreplaceartificiallyifthenaturalsystemswerelost.

ThereportestimatedthatthewastetreatmentservicesprovidedbycoastalwetlandsinNew

Jerseywerevaluedatover$1billionayear.Itisimportanttonotethatthisstudyfocusedsolely

ontheeconomicvalueprovidedtohumansandprobablyunderestimatestheabsolutevalueof

theseunique

natural

resources.

Source:Costanza,R.,etal.2006.TheValueofNewJersey'sEcosystemServicesandNaturalCapital.Report

toNewJerseyDepartmentofEnvironmentalProtection,DivisionofScience,Research,andTechnology,

Trenton,NJ.http://www.nj.gov/dep/dsr/naturalcap
http://www.nj.gov/dep/dsr/naturalcaphttp://www.nj.gov/dep/dsr/naturalcaphttp://www.nj.gov/dep/dsr/naturalcap


21/93

TheTaskForceassessedsevenmajorecosystemtypesitdeemedmostthreatenedbysealevelrise.

Wetlandlossincoastalareasisanationwidephenomenon,15andNewYorkStateisnoexception.Tidal

wetlandacreageisdroppingalongthestatesmarinecoast,andwhatremainsisshiftingfromhigh

marsh(periodicallyinundated)tolowmarsh(inundateddailyathightide).16InNewYorkCitysJamaica

Bay,vegetatedtidalwetlandsareundergoingrapidconversiontomudflats,experiencinga40%loss

since1974.17

Coastalwetlandsandmarshesareanimportantformof

naturalinfrastructurealongtheshoreandareestimated

toprevent

approximately

$23

billion

in

coastal

storm

damageeachyearonthenortheastandGulfcoasts.

Tidalwetlandsprovidespawninggrounds,nurseries,

shelter,andfoodforfinfish,shellfish,birdsandother

wildlife.Theyalsoimprovesurfacewaterqualityby

filtering,storing,anddetoxifyingwastes.

Althoughtherearemanyfactorsinvolvedintidalwetland

loss,sealevelrisewillexacerbatethephenomenon.Loss

ofmarshislands,whichareparticularlyvulnerabletosea

levelrise,hasbeenidentifiedinareasfromPeconicBayto

thenorthshoreofLongIslandandfromthesouthshore

ofLongIslandtoJamaicaBay.

Besidesservingasimportantfishandwildlife

habitats,coastalwetlandsareanimportantformof

naturalinfrastructureandareestimatedtoprevent

approximately$23billionincoastalstormdamage

eachyearonthenortheastandGulfcoasts.

Physicaldisruption

and

increased

inundation

caused

by

storms

undermine

the

integrity

of

marsh

structureandprocesses.Recentstudiessuggestthatstormssurgessuperimposedonhighersealevels

willincreasethefrequencyandextentoffloodingincoastalregionsandestuaries,thusincreasingthe

riskofdamagetovulnerablewetlands.18,

15Stedman,

S.

and

Dahl,

T.E.

2008.

Status

and

trends

of

wetlands

in

the

coastal

watersheds

of

the

Eastern

United

States1998to2004.NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration,NationalMarineFisheriesServiceandU.S.

DepartmentoftheInterior,FishandWildlifeService.

16DECdata.


22/93

Atthelowerendofprojectedsealevelriserates,the

slowdepositionofwaterbornesedimentwillenable

sometidal

wetlands

to

migrate

into

adjacent

upland

areas,mitigatingtheirloss.Suchmigrationwillnotbe

possibleinareaswhereshorelineprotectivestructures,

development,ornaturalimpediments(openwateror

steepslopes)preventit,asisthecasealongmuchof

NewYorkStatesheavilydevelopedcoastline.Ifthe

higherratesofprojectedsealevelriseoccur,migration

willnot

be

possible

in

most

areas.

New

York

States

tidal

wetlands,especiallymarshislands,willbelostto

inundation.19

Wheresediment

supplies

are

limited,

landward

migrationoflowenergysystemssuchasbeachdunes

maybelimited,changingtheshoreline'sconfiguration.

Credit:JayTanski

Low- toModerate-EnergyShorelines

Low tomoderateenergyshorelinesaresmall,nonvegetatedbeachesandtidalflatsalongthemargins

ofprotectedareassuchasestuariesandbarrierislandlagoons.Theirnarrow,steepupperbeachesand

relativelyflat

low

tide

areas20

contain

amosaic

of

microenvironments.21

This

intertidal

habitat

supports

residentspeciessuchashorseshoecrabs,killifish,crabsandshorebirds.Alongwithdamagetothese

populations,lossofthistypeofshorelinemayleadtochanges

whichaffecthumanusesoftheseareas,includingaccesstothe

uplandarea,fishingandboatingaccess,andresidentialuse.

Itisdifficulttopredicthowlow tomoderateenergyshorelines

will

respond

to

sea

level

rise.

At

the

lower

projections

of

sea

level

rise,theymightmigrateatsiteswherethereisadequate

sediment,arelativelylowslope,andnoobstructions.Higher

ratesofrelativesealevelriseorlackofadequatesedimentsupply

woulddrivetheshorelineinlandfasterandcouldhaveother

effectsthatcannotyetbeeasilyassessed.Sandybeachesmay

increaseasmarshesarelost.

Beacherosioncouldleadtolossof

recreationalareas.

19Hartig,E.K.,etal.2002.AnthropogenicandclimatechangeimpactsonsaltmarshesofJamaicaBay,NewYork

City Wetlands 22: 7189 and Fallon and Mushacke 1996 (unpublished) Tidal Wetlands Trends in Shinnecock Bay


23/93

Significantchangesinwaterdepthsorembaymentsizecouldaccelerateerosion.Wheresediment

suppliesarelimited,landwardmigrationofbeachdunesystemsmaybelimited.

SubmergedAquaticVegetation

Submergedaquaticvegetation(SAV)isagroupoffloweringplantsthathaveadaptedtolivingfully

submergedinlagoons,bays,estuariesandcoastalmarinewaters.Thistypeofvegetationhasaprofound

influenceoncoastalandestuarineenvironments.Itregulateswaterflow,stabilizessediments,servesas

afoodsourceformarinelife,andreplenishesdissolvedoxygeninthesurroundingwaters.Itprovides

criticalhabitatandnurserygroundsforwadingbirdsandwaterfowlandforcommercially,

recreationally,and

ecologically

important

fish

and

shellfish.

SAVbedsarecurrentlythreatenedbyahostoffactors.22In1930,therewereanestimated200,000

acresofthesebedsinNewYorkState.Thisareahas

decreasedbyalmost90percentovertimeto21,803acres.

Accordingtothe2009NewYorkStateSeagrassTaskForce

Report,mostofthislossisassociatedwithwaterpollution,

fishing

and

boating.

23

But

increasingly,

sea

level

rise

and

climatedriventemperaturechangearebecomingimportant

stressors.Thedeeperwaterscausedbyrisingsealevels

couldlimitlightpenetration.Shorelineprotectivestructures

willpreventthelandwardmigrationofexistingbeds.Assea

levelsrise,contaminantsleakingfrominundatedseptic

systemsorbrownfieldsitescouldcausefurtherdegradation,

resulting

in

additional

damage

to

SAV

beds

and

limiting

the

availablenurseryhabitatforeconomicallyimportantfishand

shellfish.

Hardenedshorelines,likelytoincreaseassea

levelrises,

will

prevent

the

landward

migrationofexistingseagrassbedsand

decreasetheavailabilityofsuitablenursery

habitatfornearlyeveryimportantfinfishand

shellfishinNewYork.Credit:ChrisPickerell


24/93

BarrierIslands

Barrierislandsarelong,relativelynarrowislandsandspitsrunningparalleltothecoast,enclosingbays

andlagoons.24

Composed

primarily

of

sand,

barrier

islands

are

constantly

reshaped

by

wind,

waves,

and

currents,especiallyduringstorms.Theyprotectnaturalandhumancommunitiesfromoceanstorms.

Commercialandsportcraftseekshelterbehindtheseislandsforsafepassagebetweenports.Sheltered

bybarrierislands,saltmarshesprovidehabitatcriticaltothespawningandearlylifestagesofmanyfish

species,supportingthemultimilliondollarcommercialandsportfishingindustriesalongourcoasts.

Theseislandssupportuniqueecologicalcommunities,andmanyofthebaysandestuariesenclosedby

barrierislandsonthenorthandsouthshoresofLongIslandaredesignatedasSignificantCoastalFish

andWildlife

Habitat

Areas

by

the

New

York

State

Department

of

State.

Theprocessescontrollingbarrierislandsarenot

completelyunderstood,andtherearesignificantlocal

variations.Forexample,whileallarehighlydynamicand

constantlychanging,somehavenotmigratedsignificantly

duringthelast750to1,300years.Therelationship

betweenthe

rate

of

sea

level

rise

and

how

the

barrier

islandswillrespondisnotasimpleone.Overthenext30

to50years,atprojectedlowtomoderateratesofsea

levelrise,thegreatestimpacttobarrierislandswilllikely

befromstormsanddisruptedsedimenttransportfrom

humanactivity.Overtime,barriersmaynotbeableto

maintainthemselvesifsealevelriseoutpacestheabilityof

thesystem

to

supply

sediment.

At

the

highest

rates

of

sea

levelrise,overwash(theprocessbywhichstormsurges

flowacrossbarrierislands,depositingsedimentandraising

theirelevation)andbreachingofnewinletswould

increasesignificantly,potentiallychangingthephysicaland

environmentalcharacteristicsofthebays.Thehabitat

affectedbychangestobarrierislandsincludeshorseshoe

crabegg

laying

sites;

shore

bird

foraging,

nesting

and

resting

sites;

and

fish

spawning

and

nursery

sites.

Becausethenaturalmechanismsthatcreatebarrierislandsdependontheislandsabilitytochangein

responsetostormsandsealevelrise,effortstostabilizecoastalbarrierislandsarecontrarytothevery

processesthatsustainthem.

Increasederosionofbarrierislandscouldresultin

lossofimportantnesting,foragingandspawing

sites.Credit:JayTanski


25/93

CoastalBluffs

Bluffsarerelictfeaturesoftheshoreline,meaningtheywereformed

byprocesses

that

no

longer

take

place.

As

aresult,

coastal

bluffs

can

remainstableortheycanerode,movinglandwardastheydo,but

theywillnotincrease.Blufferosionsuppliesthematerialsthatform

othershorelinefeatures:clay,finesilt,sand,gravelandboulders.

Risingsealevelscombinedwithfrequent,intensestormsarelikelyto

increasesevereblufferosion.Inareaswherebluffcompositionis

chieflyfine

grained

silt

and

clay

unsuitable

for

beach

building,

sea

levelrisemayincreasetheamountofthismaterialdepositedin

offshorewaters,25whereitcouldsmothercoloniesofbluemussel,ribbedmusselandAmericanoyster.

Closertoshore,largesedimentdepositscandamagefishspawning,feedingandnurseryareas.

Sealevel

rise

may

increase

bluff

erosion.Credit:JayTanski

Wherebluffsarecomposedprimarilyofsandandothercoarsematerial,increasedratesoferosionmay

changethepresentequilibriumbetweensedimentsupplyandotherprocessesthatgovernthe

formation

and

movement

of

shoreline

features.

Inadditiontotheimpactsoferodedmaterialsonaquaticandcoastalhabitat,increasedblufferosion

presentsathreattohomesbuiltonornearbluffsandlossofhabitatforspeciessuchasredfoxand

bankswallows.Increasedblufferosionmayleadtoanincreaseddemandforshorestabilization.

Stabilizationofbluffscomposedprimarilyofsandsandcobbles,however,maycutoffthesupplyof

materialtobeaches,causingthemtoshrinkorevendisappearentirelyovertime.26

25 Tanski J J 1981 Episodic bluff erosion on the north shore of Long Island NY Masters Thesis Marine Sciences


26/93

MarineRockyIntertidalAreas

Rockyintertidalareasaredominatedbybedrock,

stones,or

boulders,

with

little

vegetation.

They

are

generallyhighenergyhabitats,exposedtocontinuous

erosionbywinddrivenwavesorstrongcurrents,and

canbeeithernaturalformationsorhumanmade

structuressuchasstonejettiesandrockrevetments.

Thesezoneshavehighbiodiversityandhigh

productivity,providing

habitat,

nursery

grounds

and

foodformarineandterrestrialorganisms.Becauseof

theirexposedpositionandthefactthattheirresident

speciesaredependentonatidalcycleofalternating

wetanddryperiods,theseareasareparticularly

vulnerabletosealevelriseandotherphenomenarelatedtoclimatechange.Asthedurationoftidal

inundationincreases,specieswillmigratelandward.Inareasthatbecomecompletelyinundatedor

wherelandward

migration

is

obstructed,

intertidal

species

will

be

lost.

Naturalrubblefieldscanexpandonlyiftheupland

glacialsoilswithinwhichtheyareburiedareallowed

toerodewithadvancingsealevel.Credit:J.

Meyerowitz, 2009

Rockyintertidalhabitatcanbecreatedorpreservedthroughbothnatural(depositsofstoneerodedin

adjacentorupdriftareas)andartificialmeans(buildingjettiesandrockrevetments).Jettiesandrock

revetmentsareoftenconstructedonexistingnativehabitatfrequentlysandybeachesorbluffsto

protectshorelineproperty;thisdestroysthevalueassociatedwiththeoriginalhabitat.

FreshwaterResources

Assealevelrises,sowillthegroundwaterlevel,andthiswillhaveseveraldifferenteffectsonfreshwater

ecosystems.First,ahigherwatertablewillmeanathinnerunsaturatedlayerbetweenthelandsurface

andthewatertableandlesstimeduringwhichsoilsinlowlyingareasexperiencedryconditions.This

willsubstantiallyalterthehabitatintheseareas,increasingwetlandormoisturetolerantspecies,

includingdiseasevectorsandpests,attheexpenseofuplandspeciesthatrequiredrierconditions.


27/93

Freshwaterisunderlainbydensersaltwaterintheshallow(watertable)aquifersystemofLongIsland.1.Conceptualized

positionof

higher

sea

level.

2.

Corresponding

position

of

higher

water

table.

3.

Resulting

increase

in

hydraulic

gradient

and

flowtostreams.4.Associateddecreaseinthedepthtofreshwatersaltwaterinterface.Asthisinterfacemoveshigher

drinkingwatersuppliesmaybeaffected.Credit:BenGutierrez,USGS

Second,assealevelrises,thepointatwhichfreshwaterandsaltwatermeetwillshiftfurtherupstream

inriversandstreams,andfurtherinlandandupwardincoastalaquifers.Vegetationwilllikewiseshift

fromfreshwatertobrackishorsalttolerantspecies.

Anadromousfish(marinefishthatspawninfreshwater)willbeaffected,aswillotherfreshwaterfish

andfauna

that

currently

use

these

areas

for

nesting,

spawning

and

foraging.

Freshwater

habitat

could

migrateinland,thoughdams,bridges,shorelinedevelopmentandotherobstructionswillimpedesuch

movement.

Ecosystems:ActionsNeededtoAdapttoSeaLevelRise

TomaintainandexpandtheecosystemservicesprovidedbyNewYorkscoastalsystems,thestate

shouldpursuethefollowinggoals:

Minimizefuturehabitatloss

Protectfreshdrinkingwaterresources

P id t l t l ith d t t d t t l l iP id t l t l ith d t t d t t l l i


28/93

ItisessentialtostartwithacurrentandaccurateaccountingofshorelineconditionsthroughoutNew

YorkState(Recommendation6)thatshowshowshorelinesmaychangewithrisingsealevels.Suchan

inventory

should

include

the

location

of

areas

of

potential

inundation

as

well

as

locations

of

structural

protectionmeasuresthatcouldhinderthemigrationofnaturalsystemsrespondingtosealevelrise.

Thecollectedinformationmustserveasthebasisforcoastalnaturalresourcemanagementstrategies

thatarecoordinatedonfederal,stateandlocallevels.Suchstrategiesshouldemphasizeecosystem

basedmanagementandensureadequatefundingtopromoteeffectiveadaptation(Recommendations

2,11,12,13).

Asthe

first

line

of

defense

against

extremestorms,featuressuchas

dunes,barrierislandsandtidal

wetlandstakethebruntofwavesand

stormsurge,reducingtheimpacton

coastalcommunitiesand

infrastructure.Topreservecoastal

ecosystemfunctions,

natural

features

mustbeallowedtorespondnaturally

ormigrateinlandassealevelrises.

Currentfundingmechanismsand

technicalexpertisehaveencourageda

structuralapproachtoshore

protection;

this

approach

has

several

drawbacks.Structuralmeasuressuchasseawalls,dikes,andbeachnourishmentprojectsareexpensive

tobuildandmaintainandtheyofteninterruptsedimenttransportprocesses,resultinbiological

impacts,andchangeerosionpatterns.Theycreatebarriersthatpreventnaturalsystemssuchastidal

wetlandsfrommigratinginlandtoadapttosealevelrise.Additionally,thereisnoassurancethatthey

willbeadequateprotectionfromlongtermsealevelrise.

NewYorkStateneedsaregulatoryframeworkthatconsiderssealevel

riseinproposalsfordevelopmentinareaswherethemigrationof

dunesandothernaturalfeaturesmayberestricted.

Conversely,nonstructuralsolutions,suchaselevationandstrategicrelocation,canreduceoreliminate

thelongtermthreatoffloodingatamuchlowerlongtermcostandwithfewerimpactstonatural

systems.Inlightofthesefactors,federalandstateagenciesarebeginningtoincorporatenonstructural

solutionsintotheirlongtermcoastalprotectionplanningandmanagement.

Whereshorelinestabilizationisabsolutelynecessarytoprotectinvestmentinessentialpublic


29/93

NewYorkStateneedsaregulatoryframeworkthatconsiderssealevelriseinproposalsfordevelopment

andinfrastructureinhighriskcoastalareaswherethemigrationofdunesandothernaturalfeatures

may

be

restricted

(Recommendations

4,

5,

7).

Such

regulations

should

do

the

following:

Restrictstructuralshorelineprotectivemeasuresanddevelopmentinpriorityareasforwetland,dune,andbeachmigration

Prioritizeandincentivizetheuseofnonstructuralshorelineprotectionmeasurestoreducerisk Providelargerbuffersorsetbacksbetweennaturalprotectivefeaturesandnewdevelopment Requirelocalandregionalplanningeffortstobegintoestablishareasformigrationofnatural

protectivefeatures

Thereisalsoaneedforadditionalstudies,includingestablishmentoflongtermmonitoringsystems,

thatwillimproveourvulnerabilityanalysesfornaturalareasatgreatestriskofflooding

(Recommendation12).Theseincludethefollowing:

Monitorandevaluatethecauseof tidalwetlandlossandchangesatalandscapescale EvaluatepotentialshiftsintheupstreamextentoftheHudsonRiversaltfrontandinundationof

undergrounddrinkingwatersuppliesinLongIsland

Mapprojectedrangeshiftsofkeycoastalspecies Betterunderstandhowsealevelrise,storms,erosion,andengineeredshorelinemodifications

affectshoreline

changes,

water

quality,

wetlands,

and

aquatic

habitat


30/93

PublicWorksandInfrastructure

PublicandprivateinfrastructuredominateslargesectionsofNewYorkscoastline.Theseincludepower

plants,sewageanddrinkingwatertreatmentplantsandpumpstations,landfills,wastetransferstations,

majorroadandrailtransportationarteriesandahostofindustrialfacilities.Underneaththestreetsof

NewYorkCity,elaboratesystemsofpublicutilitiesthatenablethecitytofunctionarevulnerableto

increasedflooding.Denselypopulatedcommunitiesandallofthe

housing,businesses,recreationalresourcesandinstitutionsthatserve

themandhelpshapetheircharacterlineourmarinecoastsaswell.

Nearlyall

of

this

infrastructure

was

constructed

before

sea

level

rise

wasrecognizedasasignificantproblem.Today,sealevelriseis

recognizedasaphenomenonwithpotentiallydramaticimpactson

existingandnewinfrastructure.Decisionsregardingcoastal

infrastructurearecomplexinprocess(Table2).Decisionmakersin

bothpublicandprivatesectorsneedtoensurethatrelevantplanning

decisionsreflectthisrealitysothatNewYorkStateseconomyand

communitiesare

poised

to

thrive

well

into

the

future.

Ifwedonotbeginproactiveadaptationplanning,sealevelriseand

relatedcoastalhazardswillsignificantlyexacerbatecurrentflooding

problemsthatmuchofNewYorkStatescoastalinfrastructurealready

facesandcreatenewproblemsaswell.Theimpactsofinundationand

floodingarecomplex.Itisnotonlywaterthatcausesdamage.Sea

watercontains

salt,

which

corrodes

equipment

and

undermines

its

strength.

Floodwaters

can

release

storedchemicalsandpetroleum,pickupcontaminatedsoilandtransportleadbasedpaint.Floodwaters

canoverwhelmcombinedstormandwastewatersewersystemsandleadtoreleaseofuntreated

sewage.Manyelementsofexistinginfrastructurewerenotdesignedtowithstandextendedexposureto

moisture.Muchinfrastructurewillbesusceptibletoongoingstructuralandmoldproblems,suchas

thosethatbecamelongtermhindrancestorecoveryafterHurricaneKatrina.

Sealevelrisewillthreatencritical

powergenerationanddistribution

facilities.

Theseinfrastructuresectorsinfluenceandaredependentupononeanother.Disruptioninoneoften

impedesthefunctionof,orexacerbatesthedamageto,others.Forexample,solidwasteremoval

systemsdependheavilyontransportationnetworks,andallsectorsrelyontransportationforaccessto

sitesthatneedrepairafterflooding.

Past experience has further illuminated the consequences of such interdependence A Federal


31/93

Similarly,portableradiochargingunitsandhandheldsatelliteunitsbecameunusablewhentherewasno

powertochargetheirrechargeablebatteries.27

Ifnot

addressed,

these

and

other

complex

interactions

will

hinder

both

recovery

from

major

weather

eventsassociatedwithsealevelriseandadaptationtoitschroniceffects.

TheTaskForceexaminedseveralinfrastructuresectorsandthewaysinwhichtheymaybe

compromisedbysealevelriseandrelatedcoastalhazards.


32/93

TABLE2: ExamplesofPartiesResponsibleforCoastalInfrastructureDecisions

Examplesof

Infrastructure

Planning &

Development

Potentialfinancing&

Incentives

ApprovalorPermitsOftenRequired

Telecommunications

cables

PrivateutilityUsuallyprivatefundingonly

PublicServiceCommission

Stateorlocaltransportationdept

FederalCommunicationsCommission

Municipalities

PowerplantsPrivateutility

StateEnergyPlan

NYSERDA(research

assistance)

UsuallyprivatefundingonlyNYSDEC

NYSDOS(CoastalZoneMgt)

PublicServiceCommission

U.S.

EPA

FederalEnergyRegulatoryCommission

Localplanningcommission

Residential

development

Privatedeveloperor

landowner

Localwaterfrontorzoning

plan

EmpireStateDevelopmentCorp.

Localeconomicdevelopment

corp.

Federalfloodinsurance

DECandDOSviaBrownfield

CleanupProgram

EnvironmentalFacilities

Corporation

NYSDEC


ArmyCorpsofEngineers

Localplanningcommissions

Countydepartmentsofhealth

Commercial

development

Privatedeveloperor

landowner


plan



corp.

DECandDOSviaBrownfield

CleanupProgram

NYSDEC




Wastetransfer

stations

Municipalityorprivate

company

Localsolidwastemgtplan


plan


Corporation

NYSDEC



Localsanitationdept

Localplanning

commission

Shorelineprotection

structures

Privatesector

Municipalgovernments


Privatefunding

Municipalgovernments



corporations

NYSDEC


OfficeofGeneralServices(stateland)


U.S.Dept.ofInterior(inclFish&Wildlife

Service)


StateroadsNYSDOT Governor

FederalDept.ofTransportation

(matchingfunds)

NYSDEC



U.S.EPA

USCoastGuard(bridges)

U.S.Dept.oftheInterior

Wastewatersewer

lines

Municipality

Combinedseweroverflow


Corporation

NYSDEC

Localplanning&zoningcommissions


33/93

Communications

Communicationnetworksarevitaltoeveryaspectofdailylife,butespeciallytopolice,fireandother

emergencyservices.

Many

of

todays

communications

networks

(wireline,

wireless,

internet,

voice

over

internetprotocolandcable)areinterconnectedandthusvulnerabletodisruption.Floodinduced

outagestoonecentralizedfacilityorprimarycablepathcanresultintotallossofserviceoveranentire

area.Cascadeeffectoutagescanaffectfacilitiesbeyondtheimmediatelydamagedarea.Frequent

inundationofcommunicationdeliverysystemswillacceleratedeteriorationofcablesheathing,

telephonepoles,andothercomponents,makingoutagesmorelikelyandlongerlasting.Outageswill

increaseastheareasaffectedbystormsurgesexpandtoplaceswhereinfrastructurewasnotdesigned

towithstandsuchevents.

Energy

Theriskstoenergyfacilitiesparallelthosefacingcommunicationinfrastructure.Floodingofpower

plantscanresultintotallossofserviceforagivenarea.Frequentinundationofelectricandgas

transmissionanddistributionsystemscanacceleratetheirdeterioration,causingmorefrequentand

longer

lasting

outages

with

extended

repair

times.

Flooding

and

a

higher

water

table

can

impede

access

forrepairandmaintenanceofundergroundgasandelectriclinesandequipment.Above andbelow

groundstoragetankscontainingbulkliquidsalongthe

coastcouldbedamagedinstormsorcorrodedbysaltwater

inundation.Leakagecouldcontaminateecosystemsand

drinkingwaterandbecostlytocleanup.

ShorelineProtectiveStructures

Whenwaterovertopsbulkheads,seawallsand

revetmentsstructuresintendedtoprotecttheshoreline

againstseawateranderosionbuildingscanbedamaged

orlost,especiallyifthepresenceofprotectivestructures

hasencourageddevelopmentinhighriskareas.Assea

levelcontinuestorise,effortstopreventovertoppingmay

ultimatelybe

futile.

Engineeredshorelineprotectionstructureshave

thepotentialtoexacerbateerosion.

HurricaneKatrinapromptedtheNationalAcademyofEngineeringandNationalResearchCouncilto

declarethat:becauseofthepossibilityoflevee/floodwallovertoppingormore

importantly...failuretherisksofinundationandfloodingnevercanbefullyeliminatedbyprotective


34/93

Shorelineprotectivestructureshavelimitedlifespans,lastingonlyafewdecades,andattemptsto

maintaintheminthefaceofsealevelrisewillbecostly.29Forexample,thecostsofbeachnourishment

alonearesubstantial.

Accordingtoa2000publication fromtheNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration,Coastal

geologistsputthe10yearcostofmaintainingnourishedbeachesalongthedevelopedshorelinesof

NewJersey,NorthCarolina,SouthCarolina,andFlorida,using1996costsandaveragefrequencyof

renourishment,at$5.9millionpermile.30,31

Astheseprotectivemeasuresareeventuallyunderminedordestroyed,thepublicinvestmentwillbe

lost.However,

there

will

be

some

areas

where

shoreline

protective

structures

may

be

necessary,

such

as

NewYorkCity.Insuchcases,itmaybeappropriatetointegratesoftengineeringtechniquesand

elevationofcriticalfacilitiesintothedesignofshorelineprotectionprojects.

SolidWaste

Floodingcausesstructuraldamagetosolidwastefacilitiesandthetransportationinfrastructurethat

allowsmovementofwasteinandoutofthem.Poststormrepairworkonsolidwastefacilitiesand

transportationinfrastructure,moreover,will

conflictwiththeincreaseddemandfordebris

removalthatoccursafterastorm,potentially

overwhelmingthesystem.Wastefacilities

inundatedbywaterhavesignificantpotentialto

contaminatefloodwaterswithpetroleumand

othernoxioussubstances,causingodorsand

pathwaysfordiseaseand affectingnearby

ecosystems,residentsandbusinesses.

Sealevelrisethreatensmarinetransferstationsandother

coastalwastemanagementfacilities.Suchfacilitiesarealso

potentialsourcesofcontaminationiftheyareflooded

duringstorms.

29Social justice in coastal erosion management: The temporal and spatial dimensions J A G Cooper J McKenna


35/93

Transportation

Reliable,operationaltransportationnetworksareessentialformaintainingnormalbusinessand

residentiallife.

The

need

for

these

systems

is

never

more

critical

than

during

emergency

response

and

evacuation.Lossofroad,air,shipandrailtransportationfromfloodinghaswidespreadrepercussions,

compoundedbyprolongedrepairtimesduetolackofservice.Sectionsofcommuterandfreight

railwaysalongtheHudsonareatspecialriskduetotheirlocationjustfeetfromtheriver,asarecoastal

airports.

RegularorprofoundfloodingcouldthreatenrailmovementthroughouttheHudsonValley,including

plansfor

high

speed

rail

development.

Foundations

for

rail

lines

could

be

undermined

by

erosion,

and

signalingsystemsdamagedbysaltwaterinfiltrationcouldleadto

trainaccidents.Risingwatertableswillincreasetheriskofflooding

andtheneedtopumpstandingwaterfromundergroundorlow

lyingfacilitiessuchastheNewYorkCitysubwaysystem.Theycould

alsoweakenthesubstrateorsubgradeforothertransportation

infrastructure.Publicroadwayscanbecomepermanently

obstructedor

rendered

impassable,

requiring

relocation

of

critical

thoroughfares.

OfthemajorairportsintheNewYorkmetropolitanarea,both

LaGuardiaandJFKareatriskoffloodingfrompowerfulcoastal

stormsandsealevelrise.LaGuardiaisatgreatestrisk.Evenwithout

sealevelrise,atenfootstormsurge,similartothatofHurricane

Donna

in

1960,

would

begin

to

overtop

its

protective

barriers.

Waterlevelsabove13feetwouldcausesignificantfloodingattheairport.However,suchfloodingisnot

expectedtoaffecttheairportsstructuresandequipmentuniformly;amoredetailedstudyisneededto

evaluatewhichareaswouldbemostvulnerable.

Railroads,highwaysandsubwaysareall

atriskfromcoastalfloodingandsalt

waterdamage.

Sealevelrisewillalsoaffectpubliccommerce.The

goodsmovementindustry,especiallyincoastalstates,

reliesheavilyonwaterbornetransit.Sealevelrisemay

affectports,navigablewaterways,andtransportation

infrastructureconnections.

DrinkingWaterSupplies


36/93

ItalsothreatenstheHudsonRiver,whichisaprimarywatersupplysourceformanycommunitiesanda

potentialemergencywatersupplysourceforNewYorkCity,havingbeenusedassuchduringthree

severewatershortageswithinthelast45years.Saltwaterintrusioncouldaffectfreshwaterintakesat

theChelseaPumpingStation,CastlePointMedicalCenter,Poughkeepsie,PortEwen,Highland/Townof

Lloyd,DutchessCountyWaterAuthority,andRhinebeck.Inaddition,floodingandothersealevelrise

impactsposemanyofthesameriskstodrinkingwatertreatmentfacilitiesasthosethatthreatenother

infrastructuretypes:corrosion,erosionanddeterioration.

Watertreatmentplantsinthecoastalzoneareatriskfromfloodingandtheassociatedcorrosioncaused

bysaltwaterinfiltration.Inadditiontothetreatmentfacilitiesthemselves,thesubstratefordistribution

pipescould

be

damaged

by

erosion

and

arising

groundwater

table.

Wells

are

also

at

risk

from

salt

water

corrosionandrisinggroundwaterconditions.Costsofnecessaryrepairs,placementsandupdatesto

NewYorkState'swaterinfrastructureoverthenext20yearshavebeenestimatedat$38.7billion,

althoughestimatesofthecostsofmodificationstorespondtoclimatechangespecificallyhavenotbeen

developed.Thesecostswill,however,besignificant.32

WastewaterManagementSystems

Wastewatertreatmentplantsinthecoastalzoneareatriskfromfloodingandtheassociatedcorrosion

causedbysaltwaterinfiltration.Inadditiontothetreatmentfacilitiesthemselves,thesubstratefor

sewerpipescouldbedamagedbyerosionandarisinggroundwatertable.Septicsystemsarealsoatrisk

fromsaltwatercorrosionandrisinggroundwaterconditions.

Wastewatertreatmentplantsinthecoastalzoneareatriskfromfloodingandtheassociatedcorrosion

causedbysaltwaterinfiltration.Inadditiontothetreatmentfacilitiesthemselves,thesubstratefor

sewerpipescouldbedamagedbyerosionandarisinggroundwatertable.Septicsystemsarealsoatrisk

fromsaltwatercorrosionandrisinggroundwaterconditions.Costsofnecessaryrepairs,placementsand

updatestoNewYorkState'smunicipalwastewaterinfrastructureoverthenext20yearshavebeen

estimatedat$36.2billion,althoughestimatesofthecostsofmodificationstorespondspecificallyto

climatechangehavenotbeendeveloped.Thesecostswill,however,besignificant.33


37/93

PublicWorksandInfrastructure:ActionsNeededtoAdapttoSeaLevelRise

ThefirststepinassessingthevulnerabilityofNewYorksinfrastructureistoidentifyandmapareasat

greatestrisk.

The

next

step

is

begin

to

reduce

risk

in

those

areas

(Recommendations

3,

4,

5).

Alongside

thateffort,aninventoryofthetypesandvalueofinfrastructure,criticalfacilities(hospitals,policeand

firedepartments,schools,emergencyservices,key

transportationroutes),andprivateandcommercial

propertyinhighriskareasisrequired

(Recommendation6).

Policychanges

needed

to

reduce

vulnerability

includelimitationsonthesitingofnewdevelopment

orinfrastructure(includingtransportationcorridors)

inhighriskareas(Recommendations2,5,7).Also

neededarechangestopermitrequirementsfor

setbacksanddesignelevationsandmodificationsto

buildingcodesforstructuralelementsandcorrosion

resistantequipment.

Constructionofshorelineprotectionstructurescanencourage

developmentinhighriskareas.

Longtermplansformaintenance,retrofitsandupgrades

shouldincorporateopportunitiesforadaptingexisting

infrastructuretoprojectedchangesinfloodriskthrough

elevation,relocation,increasedwaterpumpingcapacity,

orothermeasures.Emergencymanagementplanning

mustincorporate

increased

demand

for

emergency

servicesandconsidersealevelriseimpactson

evacuationroutes.Useofstateresourcesforrepairor

constructionofshorelineprotectivemeasureswhether

naturalorengineered,temporaryorlongtermshould

beevaluatedtoensurethattheyarethemostcost

effective,longterm,sitespecificapproachesfeasible.

Plansfor

back

up

measures

for

critical

systems

such

as

energyanddrinkingwatershouldincludeimpactsofsea

levelrise.Determinationsofprioritycleanupof

hazardouswastesitesandbrownfieldsshouldconsider

the likelihood of increased flood risk. Some areas will

Nonstructural

solutions,suchas

elevationand

relocation

ofstructures,mustplay

amajorroleina

statewideresponse

especiallyinless

urbanized

areas

where

theymaybeless

expensiveandmore

effectiveatreducing


38/93

Nonstructuralsolutions,suchaselevationandrelocationofstructures,mustplayamajorroleina

statewideresponseespeciallyinlessurbanizedareaswheretheymaybelessexpensiveandmore

effectiveatreducinglongtermvulnerability(Recommendation5).Suchstrategiesincludeconserving

naturalsystemssuchasbarrierislands,tidalwetlandsanddunesystemsthatcurrentlyprovideflood

protectionandcommunitybenefitsatnocost.Lowimpactdevelopmentandgreeninfrastructurecan

alsohelpmitigatetheeffectsofsealevelrise,includingflooding.Lowimpactdevelopmentalso

emphasizesconservationanduseofonsitenaturalfeaturestoprotectwaterquality.Green

infrastructurereferstotheuseofnaturalorengineeredsystemsthatmimicnaturalprocesses.It

includesraingardens,rooftopcatchmentsystemsandgreenroofs,technologiesandpracticesthatallow

treatedwastewaterandstormwatertoinfiltratebackintogroundwatersystemsratherthanpipingit

intothenearestwaterbody,whereitmayexacerbatecoastalflooding.

Duetotheirescalatingcapitalandmaintenancecostsandtheincentivestheycreatefornew

developmentinhighriskareasstructuralprotectionmeasuresandfundingforthemshouldbe

significantlyreducedovertime.Inareaswherestructuralprotectioniswarranted,suchassomeareasof

NewYorkCity,thestateshoulddevelopguidancetoenhancetheecosystemvalueofstructural

protectionmeasures(Recommendation8). Atthesametime,thestatemustcoordinatewithfederal

agencieslike

the

Federal

Emergency

Management

Agency

(FEMA)

and

the

U.S.

Army

Corps

of

Engineers

(USACE)toreduceincentivesfornewdevelopmentandredevelopmentinhighriskareas

(Recommendation5,14).


39/93

Communities

Withoutsoundplanningforadaptation,sealevelriseandassociatedcoastalhazardswillwreakdamage

onboth

individual

and

community

scales.

Because

of

all

the

amenities

that

life

near

the

shore

offers,

peoplehavelongbeendrawntosettleintheareasmostvulnerabletostormdamage.Thenumberof

peopleatriskfromaCategory3hurricanealongNewYorkStatescoast,forexample,hasbeen

estimatedatnearly2millionand,foraCategory4hurricane,morethan3million.34Residential

structuresinthe100yearfloodplainofNewYorkCityandNassau,SuffolkandWestchestercounties

haveatotalestimatedvalueofover$125billion.Whilethisfigureincludesriverineaswellascoastal

floodplains,itreflectsthescaleoffloodexposureintheregion.35

Whilecoastaldevelopmenthasburgeonedthemanyfederal,state,andlocaldecisionsgoverningsiting,

design,constructionandfinancinghavenotyetincorporatedmeasuresnecessarytoaddressthelong

termeffectsofsealevelriseandrelatedcoastalhazards.Forexample,FloodInsuranceRateMaps

(FIRMS)issuedbyFEMAaspartoftheNationalFloodInsuranceProgram(NFIP)establishareasat

currentriskfrom100yearand500yearfloodsanddictateratesoffloodinsuranceforstructureswithin

thoseareas.However,FEMAfloodmapsincoastalcountiesinNewYorkState,withtheexceptionof

Nassauand

Suffolk

counties,

use

outdated

flood

studies

from

the

1980s.

Although

FIRMS

are

designed

solelytoserveasinsuranceratemaps,theyareoftenusedbystateandlocalplannerstoapproveor

disapprovestructures,decisionsthathaveinherentlongtermimpacts.BecausemanyFIRMSare

outdatedanddonotincludeareaswhereriskoffloodingwillincreaseduetosealevelrise,thispractice

dramaticallyunderestimatestheactuallongtermcumulativeimpactsofindividualdevelopment

decisionsinhighriskareas.

Thecurrent

structure

of

many

federal

and

state

funded

actions

and

programs

protect

or

subsidize

high

riskcoastaldevelopmentbyshiftingthecostoffloodprotectionandstormrecoveryfromproperty

ownersandlocalgovernmentstostateandfederaltaxpayers.Examplesofthesesubsidiesinclude

fundingforstructuralshorelineprotection(whichincludesartificialfillor'beachnourishment'),

insurancecoveragethroughtheNationalFloodInsuranceProgram,andfederalandstatepostdisaster

recoveryfundingandassistancethatencouragesreplacingorrebuildingstructureswithahighlevelof

riskexposure.36Thesepoliciesdistortmarketforcesfavoringcoastaldevelopment.

34NewYorkStateOfficeofEmergencyManagement.NewYorkStateStandardMultiHazardMitigationPlan,

Volume 1 Section 3 Table 329: Estimated Population Residing Within Hurricane Storm Surge Zones p 3170


40/93

AccordingtoNewYorkUniversitysInstituteforPolicyIntegrity:

AsaresultoftheNationalFloodInsurancePrograms(NFIP)belowmarketpremiumrates,

buildingin

floodplains

appears

more

attractive

to

private

developers

...

In

other

words,

the

flood

insuranceprogramencouragesprivatedevelopmentataratethatisinefficientandunsupported

fromasocialperspectivethatmorefullyconsiderstheecologicalandfinancialrisks.37

Protectingdevelopmentathighriskofcoastalfloodingthusfarhascomeatgreatexpensetothe

taxpayersofNewYorkState.Inthelastfiveyearsalone,thestatespentmorethan$22.6millionin

projectstoprotectpublicinfrastructureandcommercialandresidentialpropertyfromerosionand

floodingin

coastal

areas.

Costs

are

expected

to

continue

rising

due

to

inflation

and

market

forces.

The

predictedtotalcostfortheconstructionofaplannedLongBeach,LongIslandprojectinNassauCounty

isestimatedatover$100million,withaprojectedstateandlocalcostofroughly$3035million.Thefull

implementationoftheFireIslandInlettoMontaukPointStormDamageReductionProjectalternatives

inSuffolkCountyhasthepotentialtocostNewYorkStateandlocalgovernmentsupwardsof$500

millionoverseveraldecades.38

Currentfundingmechanismsandtechnicalexpertisehaveencouragedastructuralapproachtoshore

protection;however,thisapproachhasseveraldrawbacks.Structuralmeasuressuchasseawalls,dikes,

andbeachnourishmentprojectsareexpensivetobuildandmaintain.39Structuralmeasuresoften

interruptsedimenttransportprocesses,incurbiologicalimpactsandchangeerosionpatterns.Projects

likethesecreatebarriersthatpreventnaturalsystemsliketidalwetlandsfrommigratinginlandtoadapt

tosealevelrise.Additionally,thereisnoassurancethattheywillprovideadequateprotectionfrom

longtermsealevelrise.

Largescale

engineered

fortifications,

may

not

be

the

best

way

to

protect

large

cities

and

densely

populatedurbanareassuchasNewYorkCityfromcoastalstormimpactsandinundation.The

devastationfollowingHurricaneKatrinaresultedinanexaminationofstructuralprotectionmeasures,

leadingtofindingsthathavebroadnationalimplications.

37 Holladay S and Schwartz J Flooding the Market: The distributional costs of the NFIP Institute for Policy


41/93

AmongthesignificantfindingsoftheNationalAcademyofEngineeringandtheNationalResearch

Council:

therisks

of

inundation

and

flooding

never

can

be

fully

eliminated

by

protective

structures

no

matterhowlargeorsturdythosestructuresmaybe.40

TheCouncilfoundthatcontinuedimplementationofprimarilystructuraldefensessendsanunreliable

messagetothepublicthattheyaresafe:"Hardstructures,likelevees,moreoftenthannotgive

coastalresidentsafalsesenseofsecurity."

Nonstructuralsolutionscanreduceoreliminatethelongtermthreatoffloodingatamuchlowerlong

termcostwithfewerimpactstonaturalsystems.Thesealternativesrelyonplanningstrategiessuchas

landacquisition,bufferzones,conservationofnaturalfloodprotectionsystems,buildingelevation,

buildingcodesandotherlocalregulations.41,42

Themostnotableresearchspecificallyevaluatingtheefficacyandefficiencyofnonstructural

approachestoriskreduction,suchaslanduseplanningincoastalareas,hasbeenconductedatTexas

A&MUniversityunderDr.SamuelD.Brody.Researchinmultiplelocalcommunitiesexaminedthe

relationshipbetween

specific

mitigation

techniques

and

insured

flood

losses

and

demonstrated

that

noneofthestructuralapproachessignificantlyreducedinsuredresidentialpropertydamage.In

contrast,almosthalfofthenonstructuralstrategieswerefoundtobesignificantlyrelatedtoreduced

lossesfromfloodsreportedtotheNationalFloodInsuranceProgram.Havingafloodpolicywithinalocal

comprehensiveordevelopmentmanagementplanwasfoundtohavethestrongeststatistical

correlationwithdamagereduction.Protectedareasandsetbacksfromfloodproneareaswerealso

significantlyassociatedwithreducedfloodloss.43

Inlightofthesefactors,federalandstateagenciesarebeginningtoincorporatenonstructuralsolutions

intotheirlongtermcoastalprotectionplanningandmanagement.

40

The

New

Orleans

Hurricane

Protection

System:

Assessing

Pre

Katrina

Vulnerability

and

Improving

Mitigation

and

Preparedness,NationalAcademyofEngineeringandNationalResearchCouncil,NationalAcademiesPress,2009.

41Jacob,JohnS.;Showalter,Stephanie.August2007.TheResilientCoast:PolicyFrameworksforAdaptingtheBuilt

EnvironmenttoClimateChangeandGrowthinCoastalAreasoftheU.S.GulfofMexico.SeaGrant Texas.


42/93

Riskincoastalareasisalsoincreasingduetodecisionsthatfavorcoastaldevelopmentatthelocallevel.

Localgovernmentsareatthefrontlinesofdecisionmakingaboutregulation,taxation,zoning

Documents

New York State Sea Level Rise Tast Force Report