New Southern Sky Conference 2018 Auckland, 15-16 May 2018

The IATA Perspective on the GANP

Blair Cowles

Regional Director – Safety and Flight Operations

Asia Pacific

2

Global, Regional, Local

3

Global, Regional, Local

Global

• Economic Overview

Regional

• Asia Pacific Seamless Airspace Plan

Local

• IATA position on certain components of New

Southern Sky

4

City-pair connections exceed 20,000 this year

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

22000

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

US$

/RTK

in 2

014

US$

Nu

mb

er o

f u

niq

ue

city

-pai

rs

Unique city-pairs and real transport costs

Unique city pairs

Real cost of air transport

5

Boosting trade and tourism

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Trad

ed g

oo

ds,

US$

tri

llio

n

Tou

rist

sp

end

, US$

bill

ion

Value of trade carried by air and the spending of tourists

Value of traded goods carried by air

Spending by tourists carried by air

6

Air travel cycles have typically ended after 8 years

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10

Worldwide RPK cycles, indexed to low point

1982-91

1991-01

2001-09

2009-

WE ARE HERE IN 2017

7

Strong GDP growth extends this air travel cycle further

-5-4-3-2-10123456789101112131415

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

% c

han

ge o

ver

pre

vio

us

year

% c

han

ge o

ver

pre

vio

us

year

Worldwide RPK growth and GDP growth

Worldwide RPK growth

World GDP growth

8

Rising costs are the biggest challenge

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

% c

han

ge o

ver

pre

vio

us

year

US$

per

bar

rel

Jet fuel price and growth in unit costs

Unit cost growth

Jet fuel price

9

A further year of solid profits forecast for 2018

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

-6.0

-3.0

0.0

3.0

6.0

9.0

12.0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

US

$ b

illio

n

% r

even

ue

s

Global commercial airline profitability

Net post-tax profits

EBIT margin

10

Regional performance still differs but some convergence

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

N America Asia Pacific Europe L America Middle East Africa

% r

even

ues

EBIT margin by airline region of registration

2016 2017 2018

11

Agreed by all States

Very slow implementation

Mixed capability = mixed implementation success

Service defaults to lowest common denominator

Seamless ATM Plan = the regional blueprint

12

E•qui•lib•ri•umto achieve

13

It means striking the right balance between the needs of Service

Providers and Airspace Users, including:

Safety – as the foremost priority!

Regulation and legislation

Future investment plans and operational strategies

…in order to:

Prioritize investments to ensure safety and capacity

Support strategic objectives

Improve and support the international and domestic aviation sectors, and

Enhance understanding of CAPEX and OPEX plans

What does it mean?

14

Value of Aviation:

The Value of Aviation for a country can

amount to 100’s of millions of dollars per

year

This is a significant % of a Nation’s GDP

It includes jobs generated from the direct,

indirect and induced benefits of tourism

spending, infrastructure investment and

trade

Why is it worthwhile?

15

Communications

Navigation

Surveillance

Air Traffic Management

Airport Development

Most elements have a direct

impact on airline and ANSP

costs

ATM InfrastructureServices or Systems necessary for Air Traffic Services

16

The objective is to balance costs by identifying the need

for, and timing of:

Capital expenditure projects and operational costs

Cost of capital and depreciation of assets

…by taking into account such things as

Airline fleets and operational plans

Traffic volumes, and

Airport capacities and expansion plans

Identifying best balances

Any investment in change, either as a capital project

(CAPEX) or an operational initiative (OPEX), should

be driven by one or more of the following objectives:

Enhance safety

Provide a tangible benefit to the airline in the form

of efficiency or fuel savings

Provide a tangible cost saving to the State or

ANSP

…so what are the airlines’ needs?

17

Benefits

Airlines should be able to use current on-

board equipage and have a return on their

investment

Furthermore, the introduction of any new

capability or operational improvement,

should follow the principal of Most Capable

Best Served for service priority

Communication

IATA supports:

AMHS, VSAT, AIDC, LTE, VHF Voice, HF

Voice*, SATVOICE, CPDLC, VDL Mode 2, ATN

IPS, Digital-ATIS, AWOS

Maintain:

AFTN, VDL Mode 0 / ACARS

IATA doesn’t support:

VDL Mode 3 or 4

Communication

IATA and airlines support a priority

implementation of GNSS as the primary

means of navigation and the main enabler

of PBN

Airlines have invested heavily in modern

on-board avionics, yet ground infrastructure

and procedures in many locations are not

evolving

Navigation

Globally still have a significant number of

non-precision NDBs and VORs

Many air-routes still designed on ground-

based NAVAIDs

Non-precision approaches can be readily

improved by the introduction of GNSS-

based RNP APCH procedures with Baro-

VNAV

Navigation

IATA supports:

PBN, WGS-84, ILS, GNSS, ABAS, GBAS

Maintain:

DME, VOR

IATA doesn’t support:

NDB, TACAN, MLS

Neutral:

SBAS*

Navigation

Any surveillance technology should be

agreed upon collaboratively between the

ANSP and airlines

An operational improvement must be

identified, and then technology chosen in

consultation with the airlines based on a

positive cost-benefit analysis

Surveillance

Unnecessary overlapping of surveillance

coverage is discouraged

Particularly, any ADS-B implementation

should not retain overlapping radars

Surveillance

IATA supports:

SSR Mode S, ADS-C, ADS-B Out, SB ADS-B

Maintain:

SSR Mode A/C

IATA doesn’t support:

PSR, PAR, TIS-B

Neutral:

MLAT

Surveillance

Air Traffic Management (ATM)

ATM Automation System

Air Traffic Flow Management (ATFM)

UPRs, CDAs, RNP APCH

Collaborative Decision Making (CDM)

Airport-CDM (A-CDM)

System Wide Information Management

(SWIM)

Operational considerations

27

A robust national airspace planning process results in a

balance of benefits for service providers and customers:

It promotes transparency for improving safety and

efficiency

Consultation allows the service provider to better

understand future capability of the airlines

Service providers can assess and recoup relevant costs

It promotes effective financial planning for all

stakeholders

The End Result

Thank You