New Real Time Delphi Studies

• The World Bank: review of the Resource Allocation Framework of the Global Environmental Facility (GEF)

• UNESCO: design of UN World Water Development Report

• Peru’s Energy and Mining Supervisory Agency: 10-year future of electricity

• Millennia 2015 : developments and policies to improve the status of women

• World Federation of UN Associations: current relevance and issues of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

• MP: Priorities 2009-2010

• MP: Elements of the evolving economic system

Recent Improvements• Ease of initiation (load sheets)

• Addition of diverse inputs• radio buttons• yes/no• true/false

• Identification of levels of agreement and disagreement

• Question statement carries generic column heading

• Simplified pricing

Next RTD Steps

• Student version

• Promotion

• A version with only qualitative inputs

• Mixed row inputs

• Training others

Data Imputation

• The problem: completing incomplete historical data sets

• Fill the blanks in WDI historical data for a set of 30 countries and 28 variables over 20 years.

• Used the JP7 statistical package

Techniques

• Raw data

• Interpolation

• Limits

• Country by country time series

• Other parameters

• Regress across all countries

Effect of Techniques

Technique Data Available

Raw Data 60.1

Interpolation 62.5

Limits 67.8

Time series and other parameters

80.0

Regression across all countries 100.0

Raw Data Examples

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

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80

90

100

16. I

nfan

t Mor

t

0 10000 20000 30000 40000

13. GDP/Cap

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

24. C

orru

pt

0 10000 20000 30000 40000

13. GDP/Cap

Validation Examples

50

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100

12. F

ossi

l

Con

sum

pt A

ctua

l

50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

12. Fossil Consumpt Predicted

P<.0001 RSq=0.56 RMSE=8.744

0102030405060708090

100

16. I

nfan

t

Mor

t Act

ual

-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

16. Infant Mort Predicted

P<.0001 RSq=0.96 RMSE=4.3438

Next Steps

• Extend to other countries

• Continue validation

• Search for automated means of imputation

• Create “go-no go” rules

• Combine with global model