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New Principles for Economic Success in the Age of Biocapacity Constraints
Mathis Wackernagel, Ph.D. STOA Lecture – November 29, 2011
A Euro Crisis … or a Resource Crisis?
Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors
3
Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors
Global Footprint--------------------------- = 1.5Global Biocapacity
“today”
4
The Ecological Footprint
CARBON footprint
5
Biocapacity:How much
bioproductive area is available to us?
Ecological Footprint:How much bioproductive
area do we demand?
Accounting Framework for Ecological Services
6
The Basic Equation
Amount per yearYield = -------------------------
Area
Amount per yearArea = -------------------------
Yield
Translate area from ha into global ha…
The Basic Equation
Ecological Footprintper person
Biocapacity per person
Italy
9
Composition of Italy’s Biocapacity Deficit
Ecological Footprintper person
Italy
Biocapacity per person
Commodity prices (WB index)Source: World Bank – pink sheet
11
12
x
World Commodity Prices
=
Cost of Biocapacity Deficit
Biocapacity DeficitItaly
Italy’s Biocapacity Deficit
Cost of Italy’s Biocapacity Deficit (WMP of all that cannot be renewed within Italy)
13
Italy’s GDP per person
Italy’s Biocapacity Deficit
Change in Italian’s relative income
14
0
1E-10
2E-10
3E-10
4E-10
5E-10
6E-10
7E-10
8E-10
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
RATI
O in
GN
I per
cap
ita
to w
orld
tot
al(in
con
stan
t 20
00 U
S$)
Italian's share in world income
Italian's relative income
world average
Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors in Europe Ecological Footprint and Biocapacity PER CAPITA,1961-2005
HU
DKATDE
ES
RO
SECH
IT
PT
NL
FR
PO
GR
RU
BE
FI
UK
IR
SK
CZ
BY
RS UA 15
0
2E-10
4E-10
6E-10
8E-10
1E-09
1.2E-09
1.4E-09
1.6E-09
1.8E-09
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
RATI
O in
GN
I per
cap
ita
to w
orld
tot
al(in
con
stan
t 20
00 U
S$)
American's share in world income
American's relative income
world average
0
1E-10
2E-10
3E-10
4E-10
5E-10
6E-10
7E-10
8E-10
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
RATI
O in
GN
I per
capi
ta t
o w
orld
tot
al(in
con
stan
t 20
00 U
S$)
Italian's share in world income
italian's relative income
world average
0
1E-10
2E-10
3E-10
4E-10
5E-10
6E-10
7E-10
8E-10
9E-10
1E-09
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
RATI
O in
GN
I per
capi
ta t
o w
orld
tot
al(in
con
stan
t 20
00 U
S$)
German's share in world income
German's relative income
world average
0
5E-11
1E-10
1.5E-10
2E-10
2.5E-10
3E-10
3.5E-10
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
RATI
O in
GN
I per
cap
ita
to w
orld
tot
al(in
con
stan
t 20
00 U
S$)
Chinese's share in world income
Chinese's relative income
world average
Costs of resources Ecuador’s residents consume but Ecuador’s ecosystems cannot regenerate
(at world market price)
United Kingdom
Mexico
IndiaChina
World
United States of America
Germany France
Ecuador
Italy
Switzerland
GreeceSpain
Portugal
Denmark
$-
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
GN
I per re
sident in
US D
olla
rs (2000))
Biocapacity Deficit or Biocapacity Remainder (gha/ cap)
Factory world…
or?
Biocapacity Deficit and Absolute Income (1980 – 2007)
United Kingdom
Mexico
IndiaChina
World
United States of America
Germany France
Ecuador
Italy
Switzerland
GreeceSpain
Portugal
Denmark
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
Fractio
n o
f world
tota
l GN
I held
by a
vera
ge re
sident
(billio
nth
s)
Biocapacity Deficit or Biocapacity Remainder (gha/ cap)
…global auction?
Biocapacity Deficit and Global Income Share (1980 – 2007)
21
Insights• Downward escalator of resource costs
outpaces economies’ ability to run upwards.
• Euro crisis is a symptom of a deepening resource crunch.
• Turning around resource trends is a necessary condition for Europe’s economy to recover.
22
New principles• Nature has a budget. Do you know
how much biocapacity you have? and how much you use?
• Biocapacity is the currency of the 21st century. Blindness to biocapacity budget costs lives & opportunities.
• Self-interest for countries and cities to act is overwhelming
23
