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New Orleans Hurricane Protection
System Overview
by
Mike ParkHPS Program Manager
Task Force HopeU.S. Army Corps of Engineers
March 19, 2008
New Orleans Hurricane Protection
System Overview
by
Mike ParkHPS Program Manager
Task Force HopeU.S. Army Corps of Engineers
March 19, 2008
One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
100-Year Level of Protection100-Year Level of Protection
One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
Jun Sep Jun Sep Jun Sep Jun Sep Jun Sep Jun Sep
LaCPR Subsequent Actions
08 09 10 11 1207
Peak HurricaneSeason
CY
IHNC
SELA
Pump Repair
Storm Proof
PerimeterProtection
InteriorDrainage
PermanentPumping
PlaqueminesLarose to GMGrand Isle
Planning
CurrentDate
Required Funding (10/08)
100 Year Protection (6/1/11)
Pre-award
Construction
Baseline Schedule:
Levees, Floodwalls, Armoring
Current System Programmatic ScheduleCurrent System Programmatic Schedule
*Assumes required funding received beginning of FY09
One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, ReliableOne Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
US Army Corpsof Engineers®
Cost to Complete EstimateCost to Complete Estimate
• $7.1B – current appropriation provides improved system protection
• $7.5B – total estimated additional funds required to restore authorized and provide 100-yr level of System protection and complete SELA
• $5.8B – included in FY09 President’s budget request
• $7.1B – current appropriation provides improved system protection
• $7.5B – total estimated additional funds required to restore authorized and provide 100-yr level of System protection and complete SELA
• $5.8B – included in FY09 President’s budget request
One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, ReliableOne Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
US Army Corpsof Engineers®
Construction StatusConstruction Status
• Total expected construction contracts: ~298
• Awarded 140+ construction contracts for $1.4B
• Overall Program Estimate: ~$14.6B
2008 and Beyond• 2008 – Anticipate awarding about 40+ contracts for
around $2B
• Award IHNC Surge Barriers w/Advance Measures
• Award 30+ contracts for Levees, Floodwalls and Armoring
• Award 3 contracts for pump station repairs
• Award 3 contracts for SELA (interior drainage)
• Total expected construction contracts: ~298
• Awarded 140+ construction contracts for $1.4B
• Overall Program Estimate: ~$14.6B
2008 and Beyond• 2008 – Anticipate awarding about 40+ contracts for
around $2B
• Award IHNC Surge Barriers w/Advance Measures
• Award 30+ contracts for Levees, Floodwalls and Armoring
• Award 3 contracts for pump station repairs
• Award 3 contracts for SELA (interior drainage)
One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan-
07
Apr-0
7
Jul-0
7
Oct-07
Jan-
08
Apr-0
8
Jul-0
8
Oct-08
Jan-
09
Apr-0
9
Jul-0
9
Oct-09
Jan-
10
Apr-1
0
Jul-1
0
# o
f C
on
stru
ctio
n C
on
trac
ts A
war
ded
Planned Awards Awarded
28 - TFG104 - Awarded thru 2/08126 - Schedule Awards thru 2/08166 - Remaining to Award298 Total
Rescheduled
Contract AwardsContract Awards
One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
Construction CompleteConstruction Complete
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Dec-0
6
Jun-
07
Dec-0
7
Jun-
08
Dec-0
8
Jun-
09
Dec-0
9
Jun-
10
Dec-1
0
Jun-
11
Dec-1
1
Jun-
12
Dec-1
2
# o
f C
on
stru
ctio
n C
on
trac
ts C
om
ple
ted
Planned Completion Construction Complete
28 - TFG Construction Complete66 - Construction Complete as of 2/0875 - Schedule Complete as of 2/08204 - Remaining to Complete298 Total
One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
IHNC Surge ProtectionIHNC Surge Protection
• $800M reallocation approved – all funds in place for award
• Project Partnering Agreement (PPA) negotiations ongoing
• Targeting award of Design-Build contract March 08 – includes advance measures
• Estimating construction start – June 08
One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
Ongoing ConstructionOngoing ConstructionPerimeter ProtectionPerimeter Protection
LPV 148.01 – Verret to Caernarvon
• Raise to 17.5’–20.5’
LPV 142 – IHNC to Paris Rd.
• Raise to 15’
LPV 103 – Orleans Canal to London Canal
• Raise to 19.5’LPV 104 – London Canal to
IHNC• Raise to 17.5’-20.5’
LPV 102 – Lake Marina to Orleans Canal
• Raise to 19’LPV 4.1 – St. Charles Levee Reaches 1A,
1B, 2A• Raise to 13’-14’
WBV 18.1 – Hwy 90 to Lake Cat. PS
• Raise to 11’-12’
WBV 15a.1 – Lake Cat PS to Segnette State Park
• Raise to 12’
WBV 14b.1 – Orleans Village to Hwy 45
• Raise to 12’
WBV 01 – Sectorgate to Boomtown Floodwalls
• Raise to 14’
WBV 6a.1 – Belle Chasse to Hero Cutoff
• Raise to 10’
WBV 02b – Boomtown to Hero PS Floodwalls
• Raise to 14’
One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
STORM
SYSTEM
CONSEQUENCES
Forensic Analysis and Risk-Based System-Wide Assessment
Results are “in the Ground”
IPET and Risk Informed PlanningIPET and Risk Informed Planning
One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
All Hurricanes are All Hurricanes are NOT Created EqualNOT Created EqualHurricane Size MattersHurricane Size Matters
Low
Pre
ssure
Very
Low
Pre
ssu
re
Click Mouse For Animation
Hu
rric
ane Inte
nsi
ty
Hurricane Size (Radius of Max Wind Field – Nautical Miles)
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Storm surge potentialincreases as a functionof intensity, size and track.
Though Rita and Betsyhad similar intensities,Betsy, because of its larger size, had thepotential to produce a 4 foot higher storm surge.
37%
7 ft
10 ft
13 ft
17 ft
23 ft
27 ft
20 ft
Camille-5
Katrina-3
Betsy-3
Rita-3
Surg
e Po
tent
ial
One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7
Time (days)
Ele
vati
on
(ft
)
Hurricane Paths Considered in Hurricane Paths Considered in the Risk Analysisthe Risk Analysis
• 3 HPS Geometries3 HPS Geometries
– Pre-KatrinaPre-Katrina
– Current (1 June 07)Current (1 June 07)
– 100-year LOP (~2011)100-year LOP (~2011)
• 152 storm hydrographs152 storm hydrographs
• 350+ features350+ features
– FloodwallsFloodwalls
– LeveesLevees
– Pumps StationsPumps Stations
→ 62,928 Hurricane 62,928 Hurricane
HydrographsHydrographs
One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
HAZARDHAZARD RISKRISKSYSTEMSYSTEMPERFORMANCEPERFORMANCE
Water levels – surge and wave Water levels – surge and wave height at 138 locations height at 138 locations
152 hurricanes - 25-yr to 152 hurricanes - 25-yr to 5,000 + frequency5,000 + frequency
Variety of intensities, sizes, Variety of intensities, sizes, speeds and tracksspeeds and tracks
Pre-Katrina, Current, FuturePre-Katrina, Current, Future
Performance of entire 350-Performance of entire 350-mile system (138 reaches, mile system (138 reaches, 350 features)350 features)
Overtopping, potential Overtopping, potential breaches, rainfall, pumpingbreaches, rainfall, pumping
Probability of flooding in each sub-Probability of flooding in each sub-basinbasin
Potential Property damage and Potential Property damage and loss of life caused by flooding loss of life caused by flooding
Based on pre-Katrina population Based on pre-Katrina population and property conditions for each and property conditions for each sub-basin in New Orleans and sub-basin in New Orleans and vicinity vicinity
RISK = Chance of Flooding from Hurricanes X Loss of Property or Life
CONSEQUENCESCONSEQUENCES
Index of relative Index of relative losses in terms of losses in terms of Life & Property Life & Property
IPET Risk Assessment ModelIPET Risk Assessment Model
One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
Polder system probabilities & water volumes (conditional values per event)
Hazard analysis (hurricane rates and effects)
Life loss
(h1,l1)
HPS Risks
Spatial peak surge & effective wave height (SW), and durations
Polder consequences(water volume, elevation & loss per event)
Hurricane spatial effects
Hurricane (hi) & rate (li)
Overtopping(O)
Breach*(B)
Economic loss ($)
Life risk Economic
risk ($)
(h2,l2)
(hi,li)
(hN,lN)
Precipitation inflow (Q)
Closure & operations
(C)
Not all closedC
O
O
B
B
Evacuation effectiveness
Low effectiveness E1
Medium effectiveness E2
High effectiveness E3
Exceedance rates & probabilities
B
B
Point estimates with epistemic uncertainty estimates
Inundation elevations
Loss exceedance rates & probabilities:1. per polder2. per Parish3. for region4. for storm categories
Drainage, pump & power
(P)
P
P
P
P
Net water-levels
(W)
Post-surge elevation
Water volumeRainfall volume
P
P
*includes all failure modes of all reaches and their features
All closed C
Loss in a time period T
Water volume
Water volume
Water volume
Water volume
Water volume
Post-surge elevation
O
O
B
B
B
B
P
P
P
P
Post-surge elevation
Water volume
Water volume
Water volume
Post-surge elevation
Water volume
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Event TreeEvent Tree
One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
Risk MethodologyRisk Methodology
One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
Understanding the Flood MapsUnderstanding the Flood Maps
0-2 ft2-4 ft
4-6 ft
6-8 ft
> 8 ft
Shallow Flooding
Deep Flooding
Click Mouse For Animation
• Color coding on maps Color coding on maps indicates depth of indicates depth of inundation.inundation.
One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
2007, 50-Year
2007, 100-Year
2007, 500-Year
Flood Depth MapsFlood Depth Maps
One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
Pre-Katrina, 1% Hurricane Flood Depth, 0% Pumps
2007, 1% Hurricane Flood Depth, 0% Pumps
2011, 1% Hurricane Flood Depth, 0% Pumps
2011, 1% Hurricane Flood Depth, 100% Pumps
2007, 1% Hurricane Flood Depth, 100% Pumps
Pre-Katrina, 1% Hurricane Flood Depth, 100% Pumps
2011, 1% Hurricane Flood Depth, 50% Pumps
2007, 1% Hurricane Flood Depth, 50% Pumps
Pre-Katrina, 1% Hurricane Flood Depth, 50% Pumps
1% Hurricane Based Flood Depth Maps1% Hurricane Based Flood Depth Maps
One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
Before Katrina, you had a 1% chance every year of flooding this deep from Hurricanes
Notes:• The depth map tool is a relative indicator of progress, over time,
demonstrating risk reduction as a function of construction progress • The water surface elevations are mean values• The scale sensitivity of the legend is +/- 2 feet• The info does not depict interior drainage modeling results• The storm surge is characterized as the result of a probabilistic analysis of
5 to 6 storm parameters of a suite of 152 storms and not a particular event
Notes:• The depth map tool is a relative indicator of progress, over time,
demonstrating risk reduction as a function of construction progress • The water surface elevations are mean values• The scale sensitivity of the legend is +/- 2 feet• The info does not depict interior drainage modeling results• The storm surge is characterized as the result of a probabilistic analysis of
5 to 6 storm parameters of a suite of 152 storms and not a particular event
Assumes 0% Pumping Capacity Assumes 0% Pumping Capacity
March 08March 08
One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
On June 1, 2007, you had a 1% chance every year of flooding this deep from Hurricanes
Notes:• The depth map tool is a relative indicator of progress, over time,
demonstrating risk reduction as a function of construction progress • The water surface elevations are mean values• The scale sensitivity of the legend is +/- 2 feet• The info does not depict interior drainage modeling results• The storm surge is characterized as the result of a probabilistic analysis of
5 to 6 storm parameters of a suite of 152 storms and not a particular event
Notes:• The depth map tool is a relative indicator of progress, over time,
demonstrating risk reduction as a function of construction progress • The water surface elevations are mean values• The scale sensitivity of the legend is +/- 2 feet• The info does not depict interior drainage modeling results• The storm surge is characterized as the result of a probabilistic analysis of
5 to 6 storm parameters of a suite of 152 storms and not a particular event
Assumes 0% Pumping Capacity Assumes 0% Pumping Capacity
March 08March 08
One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
With the 100-year level of protection, you have a 1% chance every year of flooding this deep from Hurricanes
Notes:• The depth map tool is a relative indicator of progress, over time,
demonstrating risk reduction as a function of construction progress • The water surface elevations are mean values• The scale sensitivity of the legend is +/- 2 feet• The info does not depict interior drainage modeling results• The storm surge is characterized as the result of a probabilistic analysis of
5 to 6 storm parameters of a suite of 152 storms and not a particular event
Notes:• The depth map tool is a relative indicator of progress, over time,
demonstrating risk reduction as a function of construction progress • The water surface elevations are mean values• The scale sensitivity of the legend is +/- 2 feet• The info does not depict interior drainage modeling results• The storm surge is characterized as the result of a probabilistic analysis of
5 to 6 storm parameters of a suite of 152 storms and not a particular event
Assumes 0% Pumping Capacity Assumes 0% Pumping Capacity
March 08March 08
One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
Before Katrina, you had a 1% chance every year of flooding this deep from Hurricanes
Notes:• The depth map tool is a relative indicator of progress, over time,
demonstrating risk reduction as a function of construction progress • The water surface elevations are mean values• The scale sensitivity of the legend is +/- 2 feet• The info does not depict interior drainage modeling results• The storm surge is characterized as the result of a probabilistic analysis of
5 to 6 storm parameters of a suite of 152 storms and not a particular event
Notes:• The depth map tool is a relative indicator of progress, over time,
demonstrating risk reduction as a function of construction progress • The water surface elevations are mean values• The scale sensitivity of the legend is +/- 2 feet• The info does not depict interior drainage modeling results• The storm surge is characterized as the result of a probabilistic analysis of
5 to 6 storm parameters of a suite of 152 storms and not a particular event
Assumes 50% Pumping Capacity Assumes 50% Pumping Capacity
March 08March 08
One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
On June 1, 2007, you had a 1% chance every year of flooding this deep from Hurricanes
Notes:• The depth map tool is a relative indicator of progress, over time,
demonstrating risk reduction as a function of construction progress • The water surface elevations are mean values• The scale sensitivity of the legend is +/- 2 feet• The info does not depict interior drainage modeling results• The storm surge is characterized as the result of a probabilistic analysis of
5 to 6 storm parameters of a suite of 152 storms and not a particular event
Notes:• The depth map tool is a relative indicator of progress, over time,
demonstrating risk reduction as a function of construction progress • The water surface elevations are mean values• The scale sensitivity of the legend is +/- 2 feet• The info does not depict interior drainage modeling results• The storm surge is characterized as the result of a probabilistic analysis of
5 to 6 storm parameters of a suite of 152 storms and not a particular event
Assumes 50% Pumping Capacity Assumes 50% Pumping Capacity
March 08March 08
One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
With the 100-year level of protection, you have a 1% chance every year of flooding this deep from Hurricanes
Notes:• The depth map tool is a relative indicator of progress, over time,
demonstrating risk reduction as a function of construction progress • The water surface elevations are mean values• The scale sensitivity of the legend is +/- 2 feet• The info does not depict interior drainage modeling results• The storm surge is characterized as the result of a probabilistic analysis of
5 to 6 storm parameters of a suite of 152 storms and not a particular event
Notes:• The depth map tool is a relative indicator of progress, over time,
demonstrating risk reduction as a function of construction progress • The water surface elevations are mean values• The scale sensitivity of the legend is +/- 2 feet• The info does not depict interior drainage modeling results• The storm surge is characterized as the result of a probabilistic analysis of
5 to 6 storm parameters of a suite of 152 storms and not a particular event
Assumes 50% Pumping Capacity Assumes 50% Pumping Capacity
March 08March 08
One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
Before Katrina, you had a 1% chance every year of flooding this deep from Hurricanes
Notes:• The depth map tool is a relative indicator of progress, over time,
demonstrating risk reduction as a function of construction progress • The water surface elevations are mean values• The scale sensitivity of the legend is +/- 2 feet• The info does not depict interior drainage modeling results• The storm surge is characterized as the result of a probabilistic analysis of
5 to 6 storm parameters of a suite of 152 storms and not a particular event
Notes:• The depth map tool is a relative indicator of progress, over time,
demonstrating risk reduction as a function of construction progress • The water surface elevations are mean values• The scale sensitivity of the legend is +/- 2 feet• The info does not depict interior drainage modeling results• The storm surge is characterized as the result of a probabilistic analysis of
5 to 6 storm parameters of a suite of 152 storms and not a particular event
Assumes 100% Pumping Capacity Assumes 100% Pumping Capacity
March 08March 08
One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
On June 1, 2007, you had a 1% chance every year of flooding this deep from Hurricanes
Notes:• The depth map tool is a relative indicator of progress, over time,
demonstrating risk reduction as a function of construction progress • The water surface elevations are mean values• The scale sensitivity of the legend is +/- 2 feet• The info does not depict interior drainage modeling results• The storm surge is characterized as the result of a probabilistic analysis of
5 to 6 storm parameters of a suite of 152 storms and not a particular event
Notes:• The depth map tool is a relative indicator of progress, over time,
demonstrating risk reduction as a function of construction progress • The water surface elevations are mean values• The scale sensitivity of the legend is +/- 2 feet• The info does not depict interior drainage modeling results• The storm surge is characterized as the result of a probabilistic analysis of
5 to 6 storm parameters of a suite of 152 storms and not a particular event
Assumes 100% Pumping Capacity Assumes 100% Pumping Capacity
March 08March 08
One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
With the 100-year level of protection, you have a 1% chance every year of flooding this deep from Hurricanes
March 08March 08
Notes:• The depth map tool is a relative indicator of progress, over time,
demonstrating risk reduction as a function of construction progress • The water surface elevations are mean values• The scale sensitivity of the legend is +/- 2 feet• The info does not depict interior drainage modeling results• The storm surge is characterized as the result of a probabilistic analysis of
5 to 6 storm parameters of a suite of 152 storms and not a particular event
Notes:• The depth map tool is a relative indicator of progress, over time,
demonstrating risk reduction as a function of construction progress • The water surface elevations are mean values• The scale sensitivity of the legend is +/- 2 feet• The info does not depict interior drainage modeling results• The storm surge is characterized as the result of a probabilistic analysis of
5 to 6 storm parameters of a suite of 152 storms and not a particular event
Assumes 100% Pumping Capacity Assumes 100% Pumping Capacity