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New Nuclear Weapon System
Submarine Missile
Warhead
New Ship Submersible Ballistic Nuclear (SSBN)
3 or 4 new nuclear-armed submarinesfirst in service in 2024
Submarine Programme08 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38 41 44 47 50 53 56 59
Vanguard
New SSBN
Nuclear-Armed Submarines
Submarine Programme08 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38 41 44 47 50 53 56 59
Vanguard
New SSBN
Trafalgar
Astute
MUFC
Nuclear-Armed Submarines
Conventionally-Armed Submarines
New SSBN Timeline2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
ConceptDesign
Initial Design
Detail Design
Outputs
Build
Main Gate
InitialGate
New SSBN Timeline
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
ConceptDesign
InitialDesign
Detailed Design
Production Outputs
Build & Commission
Sea Trials
In Service
InitialGate
MainGate
Reactor options for new SSBN
PWR 2New Generation
Nuclear Propulsion Plant (NGNPP)
Reactor on Vanguard & Astute
New Design
Passive cooling system
Safer ?
New Prototype ?
More expensive ?
Continuous Patrols
Alert – “measured in days” non-verifiable
“our planned future programme should takeus up to 750 [patrols]” Rear Admiral Matthews
One armed submarine on patrol at all times
Patrols
1968-2007 300
2008-2060 ? 450
Total 750
New Nuclear Weapon System
Submarine Missile
Warhead
Missile System
Initially - TridentLater - Trident or new US missile
Missile options
24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 48 50 52 54 56 58 60
British “successor” submarine in-service 2024 – 2060
Trident D5 in service with US Navy until 2042
ULMS & SSBN(X) in service with US Navy from 2029
Underwater Launched Missile System(ULMS)
New US missile to replace Trident D5
In service by 2029
Initial concept studies started in 2007
Considered by Strategic Advisory Group November 2007
Operational independence ?
“without United States cooperation … Polaris would become ineffective after only a few months”
Sir Charles Ellworthy March 1971
New Nuclear Weapon System
Submarine Missile
Warhead
Nuclear Warhead
Options for nuclear warhead
UK Tridentwarhead
New warheador
Plutonium pit
No replacementLifespan 60 years plus
New PitFire Resistant
Life Extension
New Warhead
High Explosives
Replace EDC 37 High Explosive after 16 ? years
Insensitive High ExplosivesSafer, Larger & Heavier
Life Extension
New Warhead
Modernisation of Aldermaston
Implications for Scotland
2024 – 2055
• nuclear warheads in transport and storage
• nuclear-armed nuclear-powered submarines
• potential nuclear attack on targets in Scotland
Warhead accident - Plutonium dispersal
30 mSvConsiderEvacuation
3 mSvConsiderShelter
Plutonium: 4 KgExplosives: 20 lbWind: SW 5 m/sComputer Programme Hotspots 2.06
Total EffectiveDose Equivalent
Comparison of Hotspots & LAESI
Downwind Distance
Dose Countermeasure
400 m 300 mSv Evacuate
2.5 km 30 mSv Consider Evacuation
16 km 3 mSv Consider Shelter
HOTSPOTS MODEL
LAESI GUIDELINES
Distance Arc Countermeasure
600m 360 Evacuate
5 km 45 Shelter
Ground deposition of Plutonium
100 kBq/m2
10 kBq/m2
Plutonium: 4 KgExplosives: 20 lbWind: SW 5 m/sComputer Programme Hotspots 2.06
Submarine Hazards
Reactor
Fuel for 30 year operation 98% enriched HEU;decay products greatest in later years.
Submarine Hazards
HMS Tireless in Gibraltar 2000/01
Submarine Hazards
Missiles
The rocket fuel in 12 Trident missiles is equivalent to 820 tonnes of TNT
Submarine Hazards
Nuclear Warheads
Nuclear warheads are fixed around the third stage of each missiles
Submarine Hazards
Torpedoes
Torpedoes are designed to sink a modern submarine
August 2000:Torpedo accident on Kursk
Submarine Hazards
Fire
Fire on a submarine can lead to a nuclear accident
October 2004Fire on Upholder (HMCS Chicoutimi)
Submarine Hazards
USS Scorpion bow USS Scorpion stern
Sinking2 US and 6 Russian nuclear submarines
have sunk following accidents
Submarine Hazards
• Explosion of 820 tonnes rocket fuel
• Detonation of nuclear warhead
• Dispersal of 200 kg plutonium from warheads
• Dispersal of radioactive material from reactor
Where could an accident happen ?
Faslane
Base for Trident and proposed base
for Successor SSBN
Faslane Shiplift
Lifts submarine with missiles & nuclear weapons
Construction problems
Vulnerable to aircrash
May be replaced by dry dock
Coulport
Warheads attached & removed in
Explosives Handling Jetty
Submarines in transit
Risk to towns in Clyde estuary
Hazard zones for submarines in transit
2 km zonearound wheresubmarinesregularly sail
Equivalent topreplannedcountermeasureszone for berths.
Hazard zones for submarines in transit
10 km zonearound wheresubmarinesregularly sail
Equivalent toextendibilityzone for berths.
Loch Goil Z berth
Noise Range
Rothesay Z berth
Mooring Buoy in Rothesay Bay
Highland Z Berths
Highland Z Berths & Trials
Broadford Z Berth
Rona Noise Range
Lochewe Z Berth
Submarine exercise areas
Dounreay
PWR2 Reactor Prototype
Possible new Prototype ?
New nuclear reactor at Dounreay ?
In service 2018 – 2044 ?
Transport of new fuel, used fuel and waste across Scotland
New Tritium Production Facility ?
Decay of current tritium stockpile2006 2054
• Previous source: Chapelcross
• Location of new facility unknown
Scope of safety schemes
Road transport of nuclear weapons
LAESI guidelines
Road & rail transport of Defence Nuclear Materials
LAESI guidelines
Submarine reactor accident at a berth
Clyde and Highland Safety Schemes
Reactor accident at HMS Vulcan Dounreay
Vulcan safety scheme
Reactor or Warhead accident at sea
No specific scheme
Safety schemes scenarios
SafetySchemeScenario
WorstCase
NuclearWarheadTransport
PlutoniumDispersal
NuclearYield
SubmarineLoss of Coolant
ContainmentFailure
Nuclear-Armed
Submarine
Loss of Coolant
Nuclear Yield& Containment
Failure
Containment Failure Accident
NII LicencingFunction Site NII Licensed
Warhead Manufacture
Atomic Weapons Establishment
Yes
Submarine Refit & Maintenance
DevonportDockyard
Yes
Fuel Rod Fabrication
Derby Yes
Submarine Maintenance
Faslane No
Warhead Handling
Coulport No
Prototype Reactor
HMS Vulcan, Dounreay
No
Relative risks
Probability
Effect
LeastEffect
GreatestEffect
MostLikely
LeastLikely
Nuclear War
SubmarineOr Warhead
Accident
Effect of nuclear war - Targeting
Nuclear targeting priorities:
1. Nuclear weapons & Command/Control2. Military facilities3. Military industrial facilities4. Other industrial & civilian facilities
With fewer weapons the emphasis is on top priority targets.
Primary Nuclear Targets in Scotland
Berths 10 & 11Faslane
Berth 12 & ShipliftFaslane
Explosives Handling Jetty Coulport
Reentry Body Magazine Coulport
Effect of nuclear attack on Faslane
10 Sv100 % fatalities
4.5 Sv50 % fatalities
300 mSvEvacuate
Weapons: 6 x 550 Kt warheadsGround Zero: Faslane/CoulportWind: 5 m/s WNWExposure: 1 week; Shelter factor: 0.5 Computer Programme: Hotspots 2.06
Nuclear Waste issues
Nuclear Warheads Final disposal;Waste generated atAldermaston & Coulport
Used Fuel Used Fuel from 3-4 new submarines
In-service waste from submarine
Handled at Faslane
Prototype for new reactor ?
Used Fuel; in-service waste & decommissioning
Submarines after decommissioning
No solution or location identified
Disposal of submarine
hulks
Defuelled 11
AwaitingDefuelling
3
In service 13
CurrentSubtotal
27
Astute 7 ?
New SSBN 4 ?
MUFC 7 ?
Potential Total 2070 45
Rosyth Dockyard
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Nuclear Weapons Budget 2007 - 2011
07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11
£ million
AWE Operating
Other
“TridentReplacement”
+ AWE Development
21002000
17001500
Trident Replacement Procurement Costs
Warhead £2-3 bn
Infrastructure £2-3 bn
Submarine £11-15 bn
Total £15-20 bn
Nuclear Weapons Costs 2008-2058
Average Annual cost £1.5 bn
Total cost over 50 years £75 bn