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New Metropolitan Politics in the Mountain West

Robert Lang, Ph.D.Professor and Director, Brookings Mountain West/UNLVDepartment of SociologyTom Sanchez, Ph.D.Professor and Chair, Urban Affairs and PlanningVirginia Tech

Christina Nicholas Ph.D. Candidate, UNLVDepartment of Sociology

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America Keeps Growing

America adds 100 million people faster than any other nation except India and Pakistan—But faster than China. Most of this gain is in large metros.

200 million in 1967300 million in 2006400 million in 2039

Source: Census Bureau

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The Big Picture•The New 3D Politics

Density + Diversity = Democrats

•Election 2008The Suburbs Ruled!

•Looking Ahead to 2010 and Beyond Demography = Destiny? Not always. Especially not when the U.S. is in a deep recession.

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The New U.S. Urban Hierarchy

Types Descriptions Examples

MetropolitanStatistical Area

An “urbanized area” or “principal city” with at least 50,000 people plus surrounding counties with a 25% “Employment Interchange Measure” (EIM) in 2000

Pittsburgh, Denver

CombinedStatisticalArea

Two or more adjacent micro and metropolitan areas that have an EIM of at least 15% in 2000

Washington/ Baltimore, Cleveland/Akron

MegapolitanArea—Defined byUNLV/U of Utah

Two or more metropolitan areas with anchor principal cities between 50 and 200 miles apart that will have an EIM of 15% by 2040 based on projection

Sun Corridor (Phoenix/Tucson),Northern California (San Francisco/Sacramento)

Mega-RegionDefined by RPAand LincolnInstitute

Large, connected networks of metropolitan areas that maintain environmental, cultural, and functional linkages

Piedmont, Texas Triangle

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Old vs. New Census Definition

2000 Share 2000 Share Old Classification Population of US New Classification Population of US

Metropolitan 226,207,070 80.4% Metropolitan 232,579,940 82.6%

Central City 80,303,510 28.5% Principal City 92,566,816 32.9% Non-Central City 145,903,560 51.8% Non-Principal City 140,013,124 49.8%

Non-Metropolitan 55,214,836 19.6% Micropolitan 29,412,298 10.5%Non-Metropolitan 19,429,668 6.9%

US Total 281,421,906 100.0% US Total 281,421,906 100.0%

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Original Metro Typology•Brookings-County Typology

▫Is Based on Commuting Patterns, Land Uses, and Growth Rates

▫Uses Five Categories•Core—Cook, IL•Inner Suburb—De Kalb, GA•Mature Suburb—Fairfax, VA•Emerging Suburb—Douglas, CO•Exurb—Pinal, AZ

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Metropolitan Areas•Nearly All Population Gains to Mid Century are in Metropolitan Areas

•A Greater Share of Metropolitan Growth Will Occur in Built Up Areas

•Republican Rural and Exurban Vote Cannot Offset The Democrats Gains in Urbanizing Suburbs Much Longer

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Dems Win 4 in 5 of P.V. Since 1988

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Electoral Collage Votes, 1988-2008

Year Democrat Republican Dem VotesRep

Votes Winner Difference

2008 Obama McCain 365 173 Dem 192

2004 Kerry Bush 252 286 Rep 34

2000 Gore Bush 267 271 Rep 4

1996 Clinton Dole 379 159 Dem 220

1992 Clinton Bush 370 168 Dem 202

1988 Dukakis Bush 112 426 Rep 314

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Suburban Politics•The 2006 Democratic Gains Made in Urbanizing Suburbs Expanded in 2008 and Helped Obama win the Presidential Election

•Democrats now Dominate the Urbanizing Suburbs and are at least Competitive at the Metropolitan Fringe

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2008 Democrats Gain and Loss

Source: USA Today

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Red versus Blue (2006)

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Geographic Breakdown of Mountain West  

2009 Metropolitans Micropolitans Non-Core Based

StateTotal 

Population  Population % Population % Population % 

Arizona 6,595,778 6,121,626 92.8 383,549 5.8 90,603 1.3

Colorado 5,024,748 4,338,362 86.3 278,251 5.5 408,135 8.1

Idaho 1,545,801 1,150,758 74.4 384,038 24.8 11,005 0.7

Nevada 2,643,085 2,377,271 89.9 216,839 8.2 48,975 1.8

New Mexico 2,009,671 1,335,985 66.4 597,079 29.7 76,607 3.8

Utah 2,784,572 2,492,831 89.5 168,307 6.0 123,434 4.4Southern

Mountain West 11,248,534 9,834,882 87.4 1,197,467 10.6 216,185 1.9Northern

Mountain West 9,355,121 7,981,951 85.3 830,596 8.8 542,574 5.7

Mountain West 20,603,655 17,816,833 86.4 2,028,063 9.8 758,759 3.6

Source: U.S. Census, 2009 Population ProjectionsSouthern Mountain West is New Mexico, Arizona, and Nevada.Northern Mountain West is Colorado, Idaho, and Utah.

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Metropolitan Statistical Area Breakdown by Principal and Non-Principal Cities  Metropolitans Principal City Non-Principal City

State  Population  Population %  Population % 

Arizona 6,121,626 3,135,578 51.3 2,986,048 48.7

Colorado 4,338,362 1,950,563 45.0 2,387,799 55.0Idaho 1,150,758 473,028 41.1 677,730 58.9

Nevada 2,377,271 862,806 36.3 1,514,465 63.7

New Mexico 1,335,985 740,062 55.4 595,923 44.6

Utah 2,492,831 631,883 25.3 1,860,948 74.7

Southern Mountain West 9,834,882 4,738,446 48.2 5,096,436 51.8

Northern Mountain West 7,981,951 3,055,474 38.3 4,926,477 61.7

Mountain West 17,816,833 7,793,920 43.7 10,022,913 56.3Southern Mountain West is New Mexico, Arizona, and Nevada.Northern Mountain West is Colorado, Idaho, and Utah.

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Largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas in Mountain West

Metropolitan Statistical AreaTotal

Population Non-Principal City

Population %

Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ 4,364,094 2,050,069 46.9

Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, CO 2,552,195 1,562,512 61.0

Boise City-Nampa, ID 606,376 319,428 52.6

Las Vegas-Paradise*, NV 1,902,834 1,138,372 59.8

Albuquerque, NM 857,903 328,684 38.3

Salt Lake City, UT 1,130,293 947,191 83.8

Source: U.S. Census, 2009 Population Projection* Paradise is a census designated place. Population projection obtained from American Community Survey 2006-2008.

Suburbs

50,000 + Core

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The Democrats won the Mountain West metro counties in 2004 but won these places by larger margins in 2008 and help flipped three states to the Democrats.

Mountain West

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D/D R/D

R/R

D/D R/D

R/R

Metropolitan Non-Metropolitan

2004 and 2008 Presidential Elections:Republican to Democrat switch by

Non-Metropolitan and Metropolitan Counties

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Voter Distribution by State in the Mountain West, 2004 and 2008 Presidential Elections

Voter Turnout Republican Democrat ChangeStates Year Registered Population % Population % Population % Turnout    % R

Arizona 2004 2,643,331 2,038,069 77.1 1,104,294 54.2 893,524 43.8 - -

2008 2,987,451 2,320,851 77.7 1,230,111 53.0 1,034,707 44.6 0.6 -1.2

Colorado 2004 2,411,551 2,146,372 89.0 1,101,256 51.3 1,000,607 46.6 - -

2008 3,210,249 2,422,237 75.5 1,073,629 44.3 1,288,633 53.2 -13.6 -7.0

Idaho 2004 798,015 612,786 76.8 409,235 66.8 181,098 29.6 - -

2008 863,538 667,499 77.3 403,012 60.4 236,440 35.4 0.5 -6.4

Nevada 2004 1,071,101 831,833 77.7 418,690 50.3 397,190 47.7 - -

2008 1,208,382 970,018 80.3 412,827 42.6 533,736 55.0 2.6 -7.8

New Mexico

2004 1,145,172 775,301 67.7 376,950 48.6 370,941 47.8 - -

2008 1,185,439 833,154 70.3 346,832 41.6 472,412 56.7 2.6 -7.0

Utah 2004 1,278,251 942,010 73.7 663,724 70.5 241,199 25.6 - -

2008 1,432,525 971,185 67.8 596,030 61.4 327,670 33.7 -5.9 -9.1

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Voter Distribution in the Mountain West, 2004 and 2008 Presidential Elections

Voter Turnout Republican Democrat Change

Region Year Registered Population % Population % Population % Turnout   % R

Southern Mountain

West2004 4,859,604 3,645,203 74.1 1,899,934 51.0 1,661,655 46.4 - -

2008 5,381,272 4,124,023 76.1 1,989,770 45.7 2,040,855 52.1 1.9 -5.3

Northern Mountain

West2004 4,487,817 3,701,168 79.8 2,174,215 62.8 1,422,904 33.9 - -2008 5,506,312 4,060,921 73.5 2,072,671 55.3 1,852,743 40.7 -6.3 -7.5

Mountain West 2004 9,347,421 7,346,371 78.6 4,074,149 55.5 3,084,559 42.0 - -

2008 10,887,584 8,184,944 75.2 4,062,441 49.6 3,893,598 47.6 -3.4 -5.8

Southern Mountain West is New Mexico, Arizona, and Nevada.Northern Mountain West is Colorado, Idaho, and Utah.

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Voter Distribution by largest MSA in each State, 2004 and 2008 Presidential Elections

Voter Turnout Republican Democrat Change

Year Registered Population % Population % Population % Turnout % R

Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ

2004 1,643,514 1,277,117 74.8 716,461 56.4 532,101 41.7 - -2008 1,876,590 1,486,666 76.3 805,869 55.0 646,420 42.6    1.5 -1.4

Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, CO

2004 1,198,210 1,059,838 90.1 505,613 51.6 533,748 46.4 - -2008 1,612,155 1,218,297 76.8 490,491 44.7 696,228 52.5    -13.3 -6.0

Boise City-Nampa, ID

2004 301,031 229,241 75.2 147,016 70.5 75,221 25.6 - -2008 335,878 263,160 78.3 147,122 64.2 106,733 31.5    3.12 -6.3

Las Vegas-Paradise, NV

2004 684,313 546,858 79.9 255,337 46.7 281,767 51.5 - -2008 815,190 652,787 80.1 257,078 39.4 380,765 58.3    0.2 -7.3

Albuquerque, NM

2004 467,388 341,350 71.5 162,582 52.7 167,328 43.9 - -2008 523,430 381,341 72.5 152,585 45.1 222,678 53.2    1.0 -7.6

Salt Lake City, UT

2004 529,967 339,214 69.5 235,845 60.6 147,056 35.4 - -2008 574,920 404,555 66.6 194,646 50.3 192,350 45.6 -2.9    -10.2

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What if only micropolitans and non-core based areas voted in

2008?Voter Turnout Republican Democrat

    Registered Population % Pop. % Pop. %

Colorado Micropolitans 168,232 123,592 73.5 61,708 52.1 59,048 45.6Non-Core Based 272,842 202,439 78.0 103,059 63.9 93,566 31.9

Nevada Micropolitans 110,626 92,034 82.1 54,704 62.8 34,482 33.8Non-Core Based 22,526 18,350 79.5 9,059 63.3 6,093 32.0

New Mexico

Micropolitans 343,694 226,422 66.5 105,498 46.5 117,289 51.8Non-Core Based 53,936 36,419 69.5 17,005 49.8 18,568 47.9

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Did the Metropolitan Vote Tip the State to Democrats in

2008?

Total State Total Metropolitan

VotesMetropolitan

Democrat Votes  Voters Population % Population %

Colorado 2,422,237 2,096,206 86.5 1,136,019 54.2

Nevada 970,018 859,634 88.6 493,161 57.4

New Mexico 833,154 570,313 68.4 336,555 59.0

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Metropolitan votes failed to tip the state to Democrats in 2004.

Total State Total Metropolitan

VotersMetro Democrat

Votes  Voters Population % Population %

Colorado 2,146,372 1,841,348 85.7 875,583 47.6

Nevada 831,833 731,729 88.0 366,920 50.1

New Mexico 775,301 518,847 67.0 261,007 50.3

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Thank you.