Climate Change in Papua New Guinea:

Framework for the National Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan

Government of Papua New Guinea

and

World Bank

June 2010

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Table of Contents

Table of Contents i Abbreviations iv Acknowledgments v Executive Summary vi 1. Introduction 1 2. The Context and Processes for Preparing the Framework 1 3. Policy, Planning, Budgetary and Institutional Contexts 3 4. Understanding Climate Change–Scientific and Anecdotal Evidence 6 a) Current Situation 6 b) Anticipated Changes in Climate 10 c) Impacts and Vulnerabilities 11

d) Possible Adaptation Measures 15 e) Greenhouse gas (GHG) Emissions 17 f) Policy Implications 19 g) Recent Government Stocktake 20 5. Key Policy Objectives and Strategic Priorities 22 6. Sector Policies and Linkages 24 a) Agriculture 24 b) Energy 30 c) Forestry 34 d) Health 34 e) Water 35 7. Legal, Institutional, Planning and Budgetary Frameworks 39 8. Participation, Ownership, Partnership, and Cooperation 37 9. Financing 39 10. Research, Development and Uptake, including Technologies 40 11. Capacity Development, including Awareness Raising, Education,

and Training 41 12. Performance Monitoring, Evaluation, and Reporting 41 13. Road Map for Implementation 42 References 43

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Annex 1 Elaboration of Policy and Institutional Contexts 44

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Abbreviations

CDM Clean Development Mechanism

CO2 Carbon dioxide

COP Conference of the Parties

DEC Department of Environment and Conservation

DNA Designated National Authority

ESEG Environmentally Sustainable Economic Growth

GEF Global Environment Facility

GHG GHG

LNG Liquefied natural gas

LULUCF Land-use, land use change, and forestry

MRV Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification

MTDS Medium Term Development Strategy

NADP National Agriculture Development Plan

NDMC National Disaster Management Centre

NEC National Economic Council

OCCES Office of Climate Change and Environmental Sustainability

ODA Official Development Assistance

PNG Papua New Guinea

PV Photovoltaic

RE Renewable energy

REDD Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation

REDD+ Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation, enhancing carbon stocks, and managing forests sustainably in developing countries

RET Renewable energy technology

UNEP United Nations Environment Programme

UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

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Acknowledgements This report was developed through the joint efforts of the World Bank and the government of Papua New Guinea (PNG). For the World Bank, the team was comprised of Samuel Wedderburn and John Hay. Leadership for the government’s team was provided by the Office of Climate Change and Sustainable Development. The document was peer reviewed by Sameer Akbar and Akio Nishimae of the World Bank. This version of the document reflects the guidance given to the team at the Decision Meeting held on May 6, 2010. Disclaimer: This paper is a product of the joint efforts of staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank and the government of PNG. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

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Executive Summary

This document sets out a draft Framework for the National Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan to reduce PNG’s vulnerability to the impact of climate change while also limiting the country’s net emissions of GHGs. It builds on the wide-ranging national and regional consultations that took place earlier in 2008 around a draft National Climate Change Policy Framework for PNG. It also builds on a 2008 national stock-take report and a 2010 report on climate-compatible development for PNG prepared by the PNG government. This draft national Framework is designed to evolve as further information becomes available. It will contextualize and complement actions taken at sector, regional, and provincial levels. The Framework is intended to lead to national and other policies which will provide the basis of a coordinated government and stakeholder approach to addressing the challenges of climate change under two broad areas, adaptation and mitigation, and to bridge these with appropriate technologies and finance. Policy, Planning, Budgetary, and Institutional Contexts. PNG’s Medium Term Development Strategy (MTDS) identifies six development targets. Climate change will make these even more difficult than would otherwise be the case, but it also presents some opportunities. As a result, climate change could be added to the crosscutting governance strategies and programmes highlighted as essential to effective MTDS implementation. PNG has little experience of cross-sector budget initiatives. In the future, promotion of cross-sector budget initiatives by departments and ministers will be important if funding allocations for such cross-cutting initiatives as disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation are to be reflected in the national budget stream.

Agriculture is the predominant occupation in PNG, with 82% of the population engaged in agriculture, including animal and fishery work. The agriculture sector is already feeling the impacts of climate change. The agriculture-dependent population is being, and will be, most affected by climate change. It can also contribute to reducing the effects of climate change in PNG, if it is well informed and meaningfully engaged. The National Agriculture Development Plan (NADP) could be strengthened in ways that help ensure that achievement of its goals will not be threatened by climate change. Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) is a component of the government’s Environmentally Sustainable Economic Growth (ESEG) policy initiative. It aims to identify development options that are environmentally and ecologically sustainable. This could provide long-term income generation opportunities for landowners and revenue streams for government. Climate change provides similar challenges and opportunities to those identified above with respect to the PNG fishery, energy, health, water security, transport policy and services, and disaster management.

A key institutional framework is provided by the Department of National Planning and Monitoring, which has a major role to play in developing and implementing climate-related policies and plans. The position of Programme Officer for Climate Change was recently established within the Social and Administration Division. Given that the mission of the Department of Environment and Conservation is to ensure PNG’s natural resources are managed to sustain environmental quality, human well being and support improved standards of living, the Department has a major role to play in developing and implementing climate-related policies and plans. A similar situation exists for the Energy Division of the Department of

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Petroleum and Energy and the PNG Forest Authority. Especially if REDD is formalized as an international response to climate change, the Forest Authority will be a key player. The functions of both the National Disaster Committee and the National Disaster Management Centre (NDMC) have become marginalised in recent times. As a result, there is little coordination or promotion of disaster preparedness and response and disaster risk reduction across government agencies. This is a major concern, given the likelihood that climate change will increase the frequency and magnitude of weather and climate related disasters in PNG.

Recently, the Prime Minister of PNG announced establishment of the Office of Climate Change and Development, replacing the Office of Climate Change and Environmental Sustainability. A high priority for this institution will be to develop a Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) system, fund disbursement mechanism, and benefit-sharing model that ensures benefits accrue equitably to resource owners. Understanding Climate Change–Scientific and Anecdotal Evidence. PNG will be affected by climate change, but it could also be a beneficiary from some of the measures to mitigate change. Noteworthy measures include the resource owners and the state potentially receiving payments for the service of retaining carbon stored in its existing, and perhaps restored and newly planted, forests. In order to achieve these potential benefits, the government is being urged to be in close consultation with and support of the private sector, civil society and development partners (where needed and available). The government is also being urged to establish credible and transparent policies and mechanisms addressing climate change, including through carbon trading. These measures address the immediate victims and challenges of climate change. Key Policy Objectives and Strategic Priorities. Key national policy objectives and strategic priorities proposed are related to adaptation, mitigation (including REDD), financing and identification, and uptake of appropriate technologies. The choice of possible objectives and priorities is also influenced by higher-level national policies and plans and relevant documentation. The policy options are assessed from the perspectives of global environmental benefits, national interests, and community needs, among others. This includes suggesting options for performance targets and indicators that might be used to assess implementation of the national climate change strategy. The key policy objectives underpinning PNG’s comprehensive response to climate change might be framed by the goal of sustainable economic growth and sustained social progress. Relevant policy objectives might well include some or all of the following: enhanced resilience of PNG to climate change; increased use of cost-effective measures to reduce GHG emissions; increased sequestration of carbon through avoided deforestation and degradation; exploit beneficial synergies, such as those between adaptation, disaster risk reduction and mitigation; improved systems of climate change governance, including stronger institutions and more informed decision-making; timely mobilization of adequate internal and external financial resources; ensure the people of PNG are equipped and empowered with the relevant knowledge and skills to address climate change; and increased use of appropriate technologies to reduce PNG’s net GHG emissions and increase resilience to climate change. The above key policy objectives and strategic priorities are consistent with those recently identified by the PNG government as priorities for climate-compatible development, namely that � Climate change mitigation, adaptation and low-carbon growth need to be incorporated into

national development planning. Policies in other sectors will also have to be reviewed to ensure they are climate-compatible;

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� Further research and analysis will be required in some areas, such as developing a comprehensive GHG inventory and enhancing our understanding of climate risks;

� Many aspects of climate-compatible development require existing institutions to develop new capacities and ways of working. International support will be necessary to help develop these capacities;

� A new institution will have to be created to take charge of climate change policy at the heart of government in the post-Copenhagen reality;

� Pilot programmes will be required to enhance the knowledge base, identify the most effective institutional arrangements, test the new policies and build capacity, and;

� A large-scale consultation exercise will need to be launched to involve local communities and landowners in critical elements of the strategy, especially arrangements for benefit sharing.

PNG is also committed to mitigating domestic GHG emissions. Vision 2050 envisages low-carbon economic development, with an aspirational goal of carbon neutrality by 2050. Preliminary analysis suggests that emissions could be reduced by up to two thirds (compared with a “business-as-usual” growth scenario) by 2030, at an average estimated cost of approximately USD 4/t of carbon dioxide equivalent. The present study suggests possible priorities related to each of the objectives presented above, as well as proposed performance targets and indicators. Priorities identified include government providing leadership, support and direction to assist other sectors of society to recognize their adaptation needs and to achieve their adaptation goals and also promoting and facilitating research and development activities on adaptation aspects of climate change. A legal framework to address climate change risks should be developed, beginning with climate change legislation. Decision-making and governance should recognize that all stakeholders have a role to play in addressing the risks and benefits of climate change. The government should also promote environmentally sound adaptation activities that support sustainable livelihoods and economic prosperity, and also harmonize adaptation and disaster risk reduction. A prudent investment mechanism to enable the implementation of national adaptation strategies and action plans should be developed and implemented. Resource owners and other stakeholders should fully participate in and benefit from REDD initiatives. Together, these and the other proposed actions would facilitate sustainable economic and social progress, consistent with the MTDS’s three objectives and seven core sectoral expenditure priorities. Collectively, the priorities reflect actions to reduce PNG’s vulnerability to climate change, including natural disaster risks, as well as the opportunities and associated emissions reduction potential that could place PNG on a lower carbon intensity growth path. Sector Policies and Linkages. A sector-by-sector analysis suggests how best to ensure each sector develops high resilience to climate change, reduces emissions of GHGs, and takes advantage of any opportunities climate change presents to the sector. The sectors considered in this section are the ones that are the most significant emitters of GHGs, have the greatest potential to sequester carbon, or are the most vulnerable to climate change. These are agriculture, energy, forestry, health, and water. Costs and Benefits of Adaptation to Coastal Flooding and Increased Incidence of Malaria

Two hazards expected to cause most damage in the near future are coastal flooding and malaria. Total expected losses for coastal flooding and malaria are estimated to increase from

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USD 150 million today, to USD 300-350 million by 2030, due to a combination of climate change and the increasing value of economic assets (analysis of expected losses from other hazards are being finalized). An anticipated 20 cm. rise in sea level 50-70 years will increase annual losses due to coastal flooding from USD 20 million today to an estimated USD 90-100 million by 2030. Climate change will be responsible for USD 7-15 million of this annual loss by 2030. Much of the overall increased loss originates from damage to high-value commercial assets in major port cities, whose value will increase with economic development. Swift action (e.g., zoning laws) is thus required to curb further economic development in these zones. Beyond the economic loss, flooding could affect up to 65,000 people directly by 2030. This does not include the impact of flooding on food security, through the destruction of crops caused by salinisation and groundwater contamination.

Rising temperatures may increase the malaria infection rate from 27% to 29-31%, depending on the scenario–mainly due to a shift of endemic and epidemic malaria zones to higher elevations. Risk zones could shift upwards by 30-115 m. under the low and high climate change scenarios, respectively. In addition, the economic cost per case of introduction of malaria in previously risk-free regions could be up to 2.5 times as high as in the currently endemic regions (from USD 80 to USD 200) because of lower immunity and the disease taking more of an epidemic form, with substantial losses in economic activity. This increases the expected loss from USD 130 million today to an estimated USD 210-250 million by 2030. Climate change is responsible for USD 15-50 million on an annual basis. The remainder of the increased loss is due to a growing population in malaria risk zones, assumed to be 2.1% annually.

Adaptation measures for malaria and coastal flooding were assessed for the purpose of hazard mitigation and insurance of losses that cannot be mitigated. Between 40-65% of expected losses can be averted through cost-effective measures. With sufficient community buy-in, as much as 85% of loss aversion could be achieved through the application of measures in selected high-risk areas.

Participation, Ownership, Partnership, and Cooperation. Equitable participation, benefit sharing, productive partnerships, and effective cooperation will be key to PNG securing a sustained and successful response to climate change. The analysis highlights the need for good governance, strong and inclusive leadership, and lasting cooperation.

Financing. The analysis also highlights the need for timely mobilization of adequate internal and external financial resources, including establishing a well-governed and transparent Climate Change Trust Fund, design and implementing a prudent investment mechanism to fund adaptation and developing a national adaptation and insurance mechanism. Multi-stakeholder support will be required if any of these mechanisms are to succeed.

Research, Development and Uptake, including Technologies.

Development, transfer, and uptake of appropriate technologies form an essential dimension of the response to climate change. In order to avoid the transfer of inadequate, unsustainable, or unsafe technologies, technology recipients should be able to identify and select technologies that are appropriate to their actual needs, circumstances, and capacities. The challenge is to ensure that decisions regarding mitigation and adaptation technologies are made and implemented by people who are well informed.

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Capacity Development, including Awareness Raising, Education, and Training. The proposed priority responses to climate change by PNG reflect the fact that the need for increasingly effective responses to climate change are placing growing demands on existing capacities, especially those related to human resources. Climate change also brings requirements for new knowledge and skills, as well as motivation to take the required actions.

Performance Monitoring, Evaluation and Reporting. Monitoring and evaluation are also integral parts of any policy response to climate change. Possible performance targets and indicators with which to assess the effectiveness of PNG’s national climate policy are presented. Similar and consistent targets should be developed for sector and other policies. The draft National Climate Change Policy Framework for PNG proposes key areas for results, as well as associated performance indicators. These could be assessed and possibly revised in light of the analyses and suggestions presented here. Road Map for Implementation. Guidance is provided on how to move beyond the Framework to preparation of a national climate change strategy and action plan. Emphasis is on activities, roles, and responsibilities, rather than on a timetable. The latter is the responsibility of government. It is proposed that the government circulate the framework, both internally and to external stakeholders, and conduct consultations. Subsequently, government could prepare a draft National Climate Change Policy and Strategy, including an Action Plan. After further consultations and revisions, this could be submitted to NEC, along with the proposed climate change legislation. NEC could be asked to endorse and follow up on both these submissions.

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1. Introduction

Climate change adaptation is already taking place in PNG, as elsewhere, but in a piecemeal manner. A more strategic approach is needed to ensure that timely and effective adaptation measures are taken, guaranteeing coherency across different sectors and levels of governance. Enhancing PNG’s resilience to the impacts of climate change also provides an opportunity to further invest in a low-carbon economy, for instance, by promoting energy efficiency, sustainable logging, forest conservation, and the use of green products. While future climate projections for PNG still contain significant uncertainties, particularly with respect to future changes in rainfall in specific areas of the country, there is substantial scope to make economic and social development investments more robust, by incorporating responses to the anticipated changes in climate. Greater robustness can be realized by, for example, applying win-win solutions that address the increasing risk of extreme events through disaster risk reduction, and by exploiting the synergies between mitigation and adaptation. As a result of its expressed intention to place climate change among the top national concerns, the government of PNG proposed development of a climate change policy framework, and requested the World Bank’s assistance. The framework would also help in the preparations for the Copenhagen United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties (COP) in December 2009, to show progress since the First National Communications and to facilitate dialogue with the donor community. In response, a World Bank mission visited PNG in early 2009 and discussed the government’s priorities in the areas of climate change mitigation and adaptation. Agreement was reached on the scope of Bank support to assist the government in preparing a stocktake report and to subsequently work with government to prepare a climate change policy framework. The framework would in turn provide the foundation for a national strategy and action plan. During the preparation of this work there were a number of changes in the dynamics of the climate change agenda in PNG. From an initial emphasis on REDD, government adopted a broader perspective on climate change, recognizing the significance of adaptation for PNG. The Office of Climate Change and Environmental Sustainability, which was mandated to provide leadership on climate change and was the government counterpart for this study, was dissolved and eventually replaced with the Office of Climate Change and Development. The draft framework has been used for the intended purposes. The document was an important source of information in PNG’s preparation for the Copenhagen COP. It was also used in preparing the report, “Climate Compatible Development for Papua New Guinea,” which was released by the government earlier in 2010 and sets out the country’s vision for addressing climate change. 2. The Context and Processes for Preparing the Framework At the international level, the broader policy contexts for PNG’s responses to climate change is provided by the UNFCCC, the Kyoto Protocol’s flexible mechanisms and an emerging mechanism for reducing emissions from deforestation in developing countries. As a Party to the UNFCCC, PNG must report on its GHG emissions and provide information on the steps taken or envisaged to implement the Convention, as well as the financial support needed in order to meet the agreed full costs of complying with its obligations. The Convention includes provisions for subsequent agreements that would set mandatory emission limits. The principal update to the UNFCCC is the Kyoto Protocol, which PNG ratified in March, 2002. It establishes legally binding commitments for the reduction of GHGs produced by Annex I (industrialized) nations, as

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well as general commitments for all Parties. The Protocol includes "flexible mechanisms" such as Emissions Trading, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), and Joint Implementation to allow Annex I countries to meet their GHG emission limitations. They can do this by purchasing the GHG “emission reductions credits” generated by projects that reduce emissions in non-Annex I (developing) countries or from Annex I countries with excess allowances. In practice the Kyoto agreement means that non-Annex I countries, such as PNG, have no GHG emission restrictions, but have financial incentives to develop GHG emission reduction projects to receive "carbon credits" that can then be sold to Annex I buyers, thereby encouraging sustainable development. Arguably, the international climate-related initiative of greatest relevance to PNG is the proposed mechanism for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD). Several challenges to REDD implementation remain to be resolved if there is to be a REDD mechanism that is able to deliver environmentally-effective and economically-efficient emission reductions. The key challenges include: MRV for national inventory purposes; capacity building and ensuring enabling policy environments, including land tenure; and minimizing perverse incentives. The stocktake report, which was prepared prior to a second mission in mid-2009, was intended to take stock of how PNG had begun to address the above issues, as well as characterizing emerging risks and opportunities and identifying requirements for additional information and assessments needed to prepare a climate change strategy and action plan. That mission received feedback on the draft report and agreement was also reached on the structure and content of the climate change policy framework and on the distribution of work to be undertaken in preparing the framework, the work schedules, timelines for key benchmarks and on the specific deliverables. Between the two missions, the government had also prepared a draft National Climate Change Policy Framework. Initially, the World Bank was concerned that the government was following a parallel policy formulation track, independent of the Bank’s technical and related support. However, subsequent discussions revealed that the government took this initiative purely because of the need to underpin national and regional consultations with a preliminary description of the government’s intentions regarding its national climate change strategy. The government and the Bank agreed that the draft framework prepared by the government in support of the above consultations suffered from a lack of substantive supporting analyses, amongst other things. Nevertheless, the draft framework prepared by government helped inform the more substantive framework development processes being undertaken by government, with support from the Bank. The urgency for the consultations, and hence, some underpinning documentation, came from within government and apparently from some development partners. Four regional climate change conferences, covering all provinces, were convened by government. These included presentations by relevant government agencies, including line and sector ministries and the Disaster Management Office, development partners and non-governmental organisations. The private sector did not make any presentations. The forest sector also held a consultation workshop. At the time the climate change policy framework was being prepared jointly by the government and the World Bank Group, departments were at various stages of preparing their own climate change policies or strategies. The forestry sector was arguably the most advanced, having prepared the draft Forestry and Climate Change Policy Framework for Action. The draft was the

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focus of the two day workshop mentioned above. Its preparation and content had been guided by, and was consistent with, the National Climate Change Policy Framework. The Department of Environment and Conservation had signalled an intention to prepare its own climate change policy once the national policy had been approved. The reason wasa desire to learn from the work of others, and to ensure consistency between policies. However, delaying the preparatory process would have several drawbacks, not the least of which was the inability of other sectors to ensure their policies are consistent with those of the Department of Environment and Conservation. In addition, the department is responsible for developing and implementing the national ESEG initiative. This would be strengthened by the existence of both national and environment-sector climate change policies. At the time, relevant non-governmental organisations were well informed about climate change and were welcoming the opportunity to become increasingly engaged with government, including being involved in the regional and sectoral consultations noted above. In contrast and overall, the understanding and involvement of the private sector was very patchy. The PNG Institute of Engineers, the PNG Institute of Architects, and the PNG Institute of Surveyors demonstrated acommendable depth of understanding and commitment to the policy development process. Early in 2010, the government released the report, “Climate-compatible Development for Papua New Guinea.” It was prepared by the Department of Environment and Conservation on behalf of the prime minister, and government of PNG, and presents a revised view on PNG’s development, including opportunities for economic development, climate change mitigation and adaptation. The World Bank is acknowledged for its important contributions to the report. The report acknowledges that the scientific understanding that underlies its findings is still evolving, and remains imperfect for several important subject areas. For example, it notes that a full GHG inventory for Papua New Guinea has not yet been completed. As a result, estimates and extrapolations for PNG’s current carbon emissions have been made for some categories and sectors where data was incomplete or missing. 3. Policy, Planning, Budgetary and Institutional Contexts National policy, planning, and budgetary frameworks also provide another important context for PNG’s responses to climate change, as do the related, high-level institutional frameworks. The MTDS is the PNG government’s overarching plan for social and economic development. The MTDS identifies six development targets, namely: (i) eradicating extreme poverty and hunger; (ii) achieving universal primary education; (iii) promoting gender equality and empowering women; (iv) reducing child mortality and improving maternal health; (v) combating HIV AIDS, malaria and other diseases; (vi) ensuring environmental sustainability; and (vii) promoting global partnerships. Climate change will make achieving the targets even more difficult than would otherwise be the case, but it also presents some opportunities. As a result, climate change could be added to the crosscutting governance strategies and programmes that have already been highlighted as essential to effective MTDS implementation. The Department of National Planning and Monitoring is making progress with identifying development indicators for the MTDS, while the Department of Prime Minister and the National Economic Council (NEC) are moving ahead on institutional performance and reform. Currently, plans and budgets are formulated at the business unit level and promoted through the budget process by their respective departments. For cross-sector activities, individual departments are expected to budget for their separate components. There is little experience of cross-sector budget initiatives. In the future, promotion of cross-sector budget initiatives by departments and

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ministers will be important if funding allocations for such cross-cutting initiatives as disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation are to be reflected in the national budget stream. Agriculture is the predominant occupation in PNG, with 82% of the population engaged in agriculture, including animal and fishery work. The agriculture sector is already feeling the impacts of climate change. The population that is most dependent upon agriculture is being, and will continue to be, most affected by climate change. It can also contribute to reducing the effects of climate change in PNG, if it is well informed and meaningfully engaged. Sector agencies have combated some of these impacts through adaptive measures, but as will be shown, more effort is required. The NADP has six components, namely: (i) agriculture research, extension, information and training; (ii) food and horticultural crops development; (iii) tree and industrial crops development; (iv) livestock, apiculture and aquaculture development; (v) spice and minor crops development; (vi) gender, social and HIV/AIDS related issues; and (vii) regulatory and technical services. Almost all are relevant to adaptation and/or mitigation. The goal of the National Food Security Policy, which is now a component of the NADP, is to ensure that all people of PNG at all times have access to safe and nutritious food in adequate quality and quantity to maintain a healthy and active life. The NADP could be strengthened in ways that help ensure achievement of this goal will not be threatened by climate change. The National Health Plan 2001-2010 is focused on addressing present day health issues, including those related to cultural and traditional practices, e.g., diarrhoea, typhoid; modernization and urbanization, e.g., diabetes; and industrialization and development, e.g., injuries. The intention is to ensure that the next Health Plan includes actions that will reduce the possibility that climate change will exacerbate these and other health challenges. The recently approved Electricity Industry Policy is designed to address three strategic objectives of government, namely: (i) improving access to electric services; (ii) improving reliability of electricity supply; and (iii) ensuring that power is affordable for consumers. Climate change presents an added challenge as well as an opportunity to achieving these objectives. REDD is a component of the government’s Environmental and Sustainable Economic Growth policy initiative which aims to identify development options that are environmentally and ecologically sustainable, and could provide long-term income generation opportunities for landowners and revenue streams for government. The fourth goal of PNG Constitution provides the cornerstone for forest policies. It ensures that “the forest resources of the country are used and replenished for the collective benefit of all Papua New Guineans, now and for future generations.” Climate change policy will need to reflect this important consideration. Climate change provides similar challenges and opportunities to those identified above with respect to the PNG fishery, water security, transport policy and services, and disaster management. The relevant policy, planning, and budgetary contexts are summarized in Annex 1. A key institutional framework is provided by the Department of National Planning and Monitoring. Its role is to assist government to articulate, implement, and realize its development objectives, through various development processes and systems. Recently, the position of Programme Officer for Climate Change was established within the Social and Administration Division. The Department of Environment and Conservation (DEC) was established in 1985 and vested with the powers to protect the environmental values of air, water, soil and biodiversity and the sustainable use of the natural resources, as mandated by the Fourth Goal of the National Constitution. Thus, DEC’s mission is to ensure PNG’s natural resources are managed

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to sustain environmental quality, human well-being, and support improved standards of living. As a result, DEC has a major role to play in developing and implementing climate-related policies and plans. The Energy Division of the Department of Petroleum and Energy is responsible for energy policies and plans, data collection and analysis, and advice to the government on energy sector issues, including oil and natural gas exploration and development, renewable energy (RE), and rural electrification. Provincial governments have responsibility for maintaining the government’s stand-alone rural generation facilities. In terms of both adaptation and mitigation, the Energy Division also has a key role to play in formulating and progressing PNG’s responses to climate change. A similar situation exists for the PNG Forest Authority. Its mandate is to manage PNG’s forest resources, undertake acquisition of forest resources for development, to distribute benefits, and the replenishment of the forest resource through plantation establishment, enrichment planting, and assisted natural regeneration. Especially if REDD is formalized as an international response to climate change, the Forest Authority will be a key player. It is already taking major initiatives in both mitigation and adaptation. Coordination of disaster preparedness and response is the responsibility of the Disaster Management Centre, as part of its weekly mandated disaster risk management function. It is championed by the National Disaster Committee, which is required to approve and report on the Centre’s annual work plan. Since the functions of both the Committee and the Centre have become marginalised in recent times, there is little coordination or promotion of this function across government agencies. This is a major concern, given the likelihood that climate change will increase the frequency and magnitude of weather-related disasters in PNG. A recent study (World Bank, 2010) has recommended that any proposals dealing with issues related to disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in PNG must clearly show political and institutional commitments, without which there is little point in proceeding. Proposals must address the establishment of clear institutional frameworks and governance accountability across appropriate sectors and between levels of government. The political commitment in PNG rose in response to the increased frequency and impact ofextreme weather events in several parts of the country. The prime minister is now recognized as a champion for the disaster management agenda (World Bank, 2010). The same report also noted that the opportunity exists to integrate the institutional arrangements for climate change adaptation and disaster risk management, while maintaining separate programmes as appropriate. Moreover, in the context of development programmes there are opportunities to support sector programmes in the food and water security and fisheries industries, which have some relationship to potential climate change, but have not been initiated by climate change considerations. All have elements of technical development and promulgation of outcomes to communities. Any initiatives should be ideally linked with a governance framework development in a bottom-up/top-down context. Resources required for these initiatives are substantial, and cooperative arrangements through those sectors are needed. World Bank (2010) highlights that the way forward is strongly dependent on the continued presence of an in-country champion to provide some basis for a sustainable outcome. Any initiatives should also result in capacity development throughout PNG. Further work is required to identify appropriate areas of activities that meet these criteria and for the development of project contexts with the appropriate sector. Any proposals should form the basis of a longer-term strategic commitment.

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4. Understanding Climate Change–Scientific and Anecdotal Evidence

A robust climate change strategy must be built on a sound knowledge base. This section highlights that the issues of climate change are both pervasive and urgent. It presents PNG-focused information on recent and projected changes in climate and the associated impacts and resulting vulnerabilities, coping experiences at national and community levels, trends in GHG emissions, and the opportunities to increase carbon sinks along with the potential for financial, economic, ecological, and social co-benefits. The policy implications of these findings are summarized. In the last decade, PNG experienced a number of adverse climatic hazards. The most serious ones have been dry spells, seasonal droughts, intense rainfall, flash floods, and high sea levels. Some of these impacts, especially riverine floods, massive landslips, and erosion, and flooding due to higher sea levels, have since increased in frequency, intensity, and magnitude over recent times, and have adversely impacted on food and water security, water quality, energy, infrastructure, and the sustainable livelihoods of most of PNG’s rural communities. These impacts have the potential to destabilize economic growth, exacerbate food and water shortages, erode recent hard won gains in poverty reduction and hinder progress towards the Millennium Development Goals. Climate change is thus already having repercussions for PNG society, the economy, and for the country’s natural ecosystems. a) Current Situation PNG is highly exposed to climate variability and climate change and has regularly experienced extreme weather conditions. People have begun to notice differences in the climate. For example, rains are not coming when they should, islands are being flooded, and malaria is appearing in Highland valleys where the temperature was previously too cool for mosquitoes. Weather and climate-related disasters that have severe adverse effects on the lives of people, and on the economy, include the following: (i) cyclones, restricted to the extreme south of the country; (ii) major landslides, especially in Morobe and Highlands Provinces; (iii) flooding in most parts of the country; (iv) droughts, often associated with El Niño conditions, and; (v) frost in the Highlands. Traditional coping strategies provide a measure of protection. However, coping capacities exceed with increasing frequency. While volcanic eruptions have caused considerably more economic damage (relative to other hazards) floods follow closely, due to the greater frequency of occurrence. Much of the terrain on the larger islands of PNG is very steep. Heavy rain or earthquakes frequently cause landslides that may occur over a wide area. Casualties and property damage from landslides are not unusual. Each year, between May and October, the Highlands of mainland New Guinea experience frosts at altitudes above 2,100 meters. Where these frosts remain infrequent, crops can recover from the temporary damage they cause. If the frequency or duration of the frosts increases, crops can be destroyed. As the staple root crops have a long growth period in cooler areas, this can lead to food shortages lasting many months. Major droughts occurred in parts of PNG in 1896, 1902, 1914, 1941, 1972, 1982, and 1997, with less severe events in some other years. All of these years had periods during which the Southern Oscillation Index indicated El Niño conditions. In 1997, there was a national state of disaster as a result of a drought (caused by El Niño, many thought). Loss of hydroelectric power generating capacity and abnormal frosts were also associated with this event.

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1 9 4 5 1 9 4 9 1 9 5 3 1 9 5 7 1 9 6 1 1 9 6 5 1 9 6 9 1 9 7 3 1 9 7 7 1 9 8 1 1 9 8 5 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 7 2 0 0 1-1

-0 .5

0

0 .5

1

TEMP

ANOMALY(DEG

A N N U A L

5 YR R U N M E A N

V A R IA TIO N F R O M N O R M A L TE MP IN P N G S IN C E 1945 .

A secondary result of the drought and frosts associated with the 1997 El Niño was the increased incidence of bush fires in many parts of the affected areas of mainland New Guinea. Initially, these fires appear to have been started by landowners burning off the remains of their crops, so as to be ready to plant new crops when rain returned. Some of these fires got out of control in the unusually dry conditions and spread far beyond the originally planned areas. Later, reports issued regarding many fires lit by landowners in response to a belief that smoke would bring clouds, which would in turn bring rain. As the vegetation was even drier when these fires were lit, they often spread out of control. The associated calm conditions left much of the mainland shrouded in smoke haze. Figure 1 shows temperature changes over recent decades. Such increases are consistent with, and likely linked with, the observed trend of increasing water temperature (Figure 2). The observed extreme high water temperatures threaten corals and other in-shore marine organisms.

Figure 1. Temperature anomalies for PNG, 1945 to 2001.

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Figure 2. Monthly mean water temperatures for Manus Island, PNG. Source: Bureau of Meteorology, 2008.

Figure 3F shows annual rainfall totals for PNG from 1957 to 1999. While the annual rainfall amounts do exhibit a slight trend towards drier conditions, the considerable year-to-year variation is of greater importance. It is mostly dictated by the prevailing monsoonal pattern. The slight decrease in decadal rainfall is associated with more frequent episodes of drought, which are in turn related to a greater frequency of El Niño conditions in the 1980s and 1990s.

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Figure 3. Annual rainfall totals and the decadal trend.Source: PNG First National Communication. Figure 4 shows sea-level anomalies recorded at Manus Island. The anomalies had tides, seasonal cycles, and the trend removed from the sea-level observations. The lowest recorded sea levels occurred during the 1997/1998 El Niño.

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Figure 4. Sea-level anomalies for Manus Island, PNG.Source: Bureau of Meteorology, 2008.

Based on the available data, the observed trend in sea level around PNG is 7.9 mm./year. When the inverted barometric pressure effect (1.6 mm./year) and vertical movements in the observing platform (0.1 mm./year) are taken into account, the net relative sea level trend is 6.2 mm./year, as at December 2008. This is considerably greater than the estimated range of global sea-level rise over the past century, namely 1 to 2 mm./year. From a risk perspective, short-lived periods of high sea level are more important than longer-term trends. Such periods of high sea level can contribute to flooding and accelerated coastal erosion. Manus Island (Figure 5) experiences highest sea levels near the start of the year. At mid-year, the highest sea levels are typically about 10 cm. lower. Importantly, this pattern does not occur every year, and the seasonal cycle was particularly disrupted during El Niño.

Figure 5. Monthly sea levels at Manus Island. Source: Bureau of Meteorology, 2008.

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Even under current conditions, agriculture, which underpins food security and supports 82% of the population, is highly vulnerable to climate variability and extremes, including storms, floods, and droughts. Climate change will heighten this vulnerability. b) Anticipated Changes in Climate Climate projections for 2050 are in Table 1. Temperatures are expected to rise steadily, especially outside of the monsoon season. Floods and droughts may increase in intensity. Figure 6 shows the extent to which 12 global climate models agree on future trends when used to estimate changes in the mean rainfall in the Pacific Region. The models used in the study validate well for the South Pacific. There is general agreement that the mean rainfall will increase along the tropical belt in the 21st century, and to a lesser extent for the South Pacific Convergence Zone. However, for the remainder of the South Pacific, the certainty of change is much less. Compared to the rest of the South Pacific, the increased mean annual rainfall (indicated for PNG in Table 1) is therefore relatively certain.

Table 1

Projections of PNG Climate for 2050 (Sources: PNG First National Communication to UNFCCC, 2000; UNDP Country profile, ALM Project)

Temperature Rainfall Sea Level Weather Extreme Climate Extreme

HADCM2 + 1.2 C CSIRO9M2 +1.3 C ------------------------- Dec to Feb: +0.8 to 1.6 C Jun to Aug: +0.75 to 1.75C

Mean annual: HADCM2 2.2% CSIRO9M2 8.9% Dec to Feb: -5 to +4% Jun to Aug: -4 to +6%

Best Guess 20 cm. High Est. 40 cm.

Droughts and floods effects intensified

Greater ENSO influence on extremes

Figure 6. Number of models, out of 12, that show a decrease in mean annual rainfall between 1980-1999 and 2080-2099. Source: NIWA, 2008.

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Box 1

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT (PNG, 2000) Vulnerability information from the Initial National Communication

a. Approximately 4,500 km. out of a total of 17,100 km. of coastline is expected to be moderately or severely inundated affecting up to 30% of PNG’s population. Coastal inundation and loss in being experienced already in the outer atoll islands of the Mortlock, Tasman and Duke of York Islands. Their vulnerability is likely to be exacerbated by their exposure to extreme events, such as tropical cyclones associated with erosions, coastal flooding, inundation, and land loss.

b. PNG is highly susceptible to extreme climate events, such as, prolonged droughts associated with the ENSO events and coral bleaching and a major tropical cyclone can cause severe damage to agriculture and biodiversity

c. Most vulnerable sectors included coastal zone, water resources, agriculture, and biodiversity, which are considered vital to the welfare and livelihoods of communities.

Figure 7 shows simulated changes in annual average tropical cyclone occurrence for PNG and adjacent areas for 40-year time slices centred on 2030 and 2070, using a model with a 15-kilometer-grid spacing. For PNG and the immediately adjacent ocean areas, the results suggest that tropical cyclone frequencies will decline from their already relatively low values.

Figure 7. Simulated changes in annual average tropical cyclone occurrence for PNG and surrounding areas for 40-year time slices centred on 2030 and 2070. Blue regions indicate a decrease in tropical cyclone occurrence and red regions indicate an increase in occurrence. Source: CSIRO and Australian Bureau of Meteorology (2007).

In a more recent study (PNG, 2010), three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios were used to account for the full breadth of uncertainty of the climate change effect to 2030. Depending on the scenario, temperature will increase by 0.2-0.7 degrees Celsius, rainfall will change minimally (by -0.9-3.4 mm.), and sea level will increase 0.08-0.2 m. by 2030. c) Impacts and Vulnerabilities

PNG’s First National Communication identified the general vulnerability of the country to climate change (see Box 1). The anticipated impacts of climate change for specific sectors are briefly summarized in Table 2. Climate change continues to accelerate beyond scientific predictions. As a result, impacts are already being experienced in PNG, including bleaching of corals reefs and the associated decline in the productivity of inshore marine ecosystems as well as atoll communities being affected by rising seas, with erosion of beaches and destruction of food gardens and coconut groves. Malaria epidemics are becoming more prevalent in the highlands. The Carteret Islands and the Motlocks are already experiencing firsthand the impacts of sea-level rise. These atolls are very flat and most of their land is under water. As a result, coconut fruit have become increasingly important for survival.

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Table 2

Summary of Climate Change Impacts for given Sectors (Source: First National Communication to the UNFCCC, 2000)

Sector Impacts

Agricultural Production and food security

Reduced agricultural production due to the following: - Rapid post-harvest deterioration of crops; - Greater rate of water loss through evaporation; - Soil degradation; - Humid conditions will favour increased incubation of pests and diseases; and - Shorter time for crops to mature.

Water Sector - Loss of freshwater due to saltwater intrusion.

Disaster risks - Flooding is likely to cause a loss of coastal and industrial infra, (e.g., roads, settlements and marine installations) particularly in low-lying areas.

Human health and safety - Storms can damage and destroy health centres and related infra, thereby disrupting essential health services; - Nutritional related disease arising from malnutrition and food shortages; and - Increases in the incidence of vector borne and other diseases.

Malaria epidemics in the highlands of PNG are "now basically happening every year" as a result of global warming. The World Health Organization (2006) recorded 4,986 malaria cases in the Western Highlands province in 2005, compared with 638 cases in 2000. About 40% of Papua New Guineans live in the highlands, where there used to be "no malaria or low epidemic outbreaks." Research undertaken in PNG has shown that a small rise in temperature can increase significantly the size of mosquito populations. Despite the known causal links between climate and malaria transmission, there is still much uncertainty about the potential impact of climate change on malaria at local and global scales. Analogue reasoning suggests that if climate change improves mosquito-breeding conditions, the number of mosquitoes would increase, thereby increasing the transmission of malaria. Vulnerability studies have identified several climate change “hotspots” (Figure 8). Areas in PNG where agriculture, forestry, water resources, health, and transport are highly vulnerable to climate change were also identified (Figure 9).

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Figure 8. PNG climate risk landscape: current climate risks already pose a significant threat to people and assets (source: PNG, 2010).

Figure 9. Areas in PNG where agriculture, forestry, water resources, health, and transport are highly vulnerable to climate change. Source: Office of Climate Change and Environmental Sustainability (OCCES).

Outbreaks of plant and livestock disease can have a devastating effect on both staple and export crops in PNG. PNG’s quarantine laws are comprehensive, but resources for enforcement are limited. As a result, events such as the introduction of coffee rust, which devastated the coffee industry in the 1980s, could occur for other crops. Insect pest infections can also have a

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major effect on crops. Locust swarms form regularly in the Markham Valley. Infestations of other pests are experienced in certain seasons, such as the first rains after a dry period. Livestock diseases could also cause serious damage to the small livestock industry.

Water availability is subject to natural climatic and other geophysical conditions. In addition, various land uses and waste disposal linked to population growth are also affecting the capacity to meet the need to provide water for a range of uses, in terms of both quantity and quality. Catchments such as Laloki, Wahgi, and Bumbu are already overstressed with poor quality water yields and high water demand from various users.

Increased frequency and levels of extreme high water events could affect the position and health of coastal ecosystems and pose a hazard to coastal development and human safety. Mangroves migrate landward as a natural response to a rising sea level. In some cases where this natural landward migration is not possible, e.g., because of the natural physiographic setting or due to the presence of seawalls and other obstructing development, the mangrove area reduces over time. Mangroves could experience serious degradation due to rising sea levels. Low island mangroves may already be under stress. The responses of mangrove wetlands and other coastal systems to global climate change effects other than sea-level rise, such as increased air and sea-surface temperatures, changes in precipitation and salinity, and changes in storminess, are less certain and not well understood. In addition to climate change effects, mangroves and other coastal ecosystems face numerous other threats, including logging, reclamation for development, and disease outbreaks. UNEP (2007) estimated the mangrove area in PNG to cover 372,770 hectares [ranging from 353,770 to 391,770]. Applying the highest rate of sea-level rise projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the mangrove area could be reduced to 341,457 hectares by 2100.

Two hazards that expected to cause most damage in the near future are coastal flooding and malaria (PNG, 2010). The inland flooding hazard is also expected to cause substantial damage and detailed analyses are currently in place.

The total expected losses for coastal flooding and malaria are estimated to increase from USD 150 million today, to USD 300-350 million by 2030, due to a combination of climate change and the increasing value of economic assets. Rising sea levels will increase the frequency of severe coastal flooding. A 20 cm. rise, as assumed under the high climate change scenario, will almost double the frequency of a 100-year event to once in 50-70 years. This increases the expected annual loss from USD 20 million today to an estimated USD 90-100 million by 2030. Climate change will be responsible for USD 7-15 million of this annual loss by 2030. The remainder of the loss is attributed to the increased value of assets due to economic development in flood-prone areas. Much of this loss originates from damage to high-value commercial assets in major port cities, whose value will increase with economic development. Swift actions (e.g., zoning laws) are thus required to curb further development in these zones. Beyond the economic loss, flooding could affect up to 65,000 people directly by 2030. This does not include the impact of flooding on food security, through the destruction of crops caused by salinisation and groundwater contamination.

Rising temperatures may increase the malaria infection rate from 27% to 29-31%, depending on the scenario–mainly due to a shift of endemic and epidemic malaria zones to higher elevations. Risk zones could shift upwards by 30-115 m. under the low and high climate change scenarios, respectively. In addition, the economic cost per case of introduction of malaria in previously risk-free regions could be up to 2.5 times as high as in the currently endemic regions (from USD 80

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to USD 200) because of lower immunity and the disease taking more of an epidemic form, with substantial losses in economic activity. This increases the expected loss from USD 130 million today to an estimated USD 210-250 million by 2030. Climate change is responsible for USD 15-50 million on an annual basis. The remainder of the increased loss is due to a growing population in malaria risk zones, assumed to be 2.1% annually.

Figure 10 illustrates the consolidated expected loss contributed by both coastal flooding and malaria hazards. In the worst-case scenario, expected estimated loss as a result of climatic hazards will increase by 230%.

Figure 10. The consolidated expected loss contributed by both coastal flooding and malaria hazards (source: PNG, 2010).

d) Possible Adaptation Measures

In PNG (2010) adaptation measures for malaria and coastal flooding were reviewed for the purpose of hazard mitigation and insurance of losses that cannot be mitigated. Between 40-65% of expected losses can be averted through cost-effective measures. With sufficient community buy-in, it is possible to reach as much as 85% of loss aversion through the application of measures in selected high-risk areas. For malaria, the most promising measures are: (i) ensuring continuous availability of artemisinin combination therapy and rapid tests if treatment is needed; (ii) distributing long-lasting insecticide treated nets; and (iii) conducting targeted indoor residual spraying. Distribution of these measures to all districts, especially to remote villages, is critical for a successful nationwide implementation. Furthermore, all measures should be accompanied by a clear educational campaign. For coastal flooding, the most promising initiatives are: (i) community-based mangrove planting and monitoring; (ii) building sea walls, preferably with locally available material, in residential and small-scale commercial areas where urgent action is required; and (iii) building dikes in high-risk, high- density economic areas (e.g., Wewak city). Suitable adaptation measures can differ strongly between the type of regions it aims to protect. Structural measures, such as sea walls and dikes, should be implemented where urgent action is required. Mangroves require at least five to eight years of growth before becoming functional. In addition, particular attention should be paid to maintaining and reviving coral reefs, especially on the north coast and around

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flood-prone islands. Where structural measures are not cost-effective, insurance should be considered to better share and finance risk.

Figure 11 illustrates the low average cost-benefit ratio for cost effective adaptation measures for the two hazards discussed above.

Figure 11. Analysis of the six hazards resulting from climate change, with detailed analysis on coastal flooding and malaria, showing the low average cost-benefit ratio for cost effective adaptation measures for the two malaria and coastal flooding (source: PNG, 2010). Implementing these measures reduces the costs of climate risk from USD 140 million in the best case (USD 300 million expected loss, 85% cost-effective loss aversion, see Figure 11), and USD 200 million in the worst case (USD 350 expected loss, 65% cost-effective loss aversion) for coastal flooding and malaria. This 40-55% reduction in the costs of climate risk underscores the need for immediate action (Figure 12).

Figure 12. Expected losses from climate-related hazards and adaptation measures (USD million at constant prices) (source: PNG, 2010).

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If implemented in a timely manner, the costs of climate risk by 2030 break down as follows: residual loss of USD 50 million in the best case (65% below today’s level) and USD 120 million in the worst case (20% below today’s level). In either case, cost-effective measures do not only fully eliminate the additional future expected loss, but also decrease PNG’s current exposure to both coastal flooding and malaria hazards. Insurance could be used to reduce expected loss further. Cash costs of implementation range between USD 80-90 million, assuming implementation at a cost-benefit ratio of about 0.35, based on a weighted average of both coastal flooding and malaria cost-benefit ratios. e) GHG Emissions Table 3 shows how emissions have grown in recent years, largely as a result of increased energy consumption. Before independence, PNG boasted some 33 million hectares of natural forests. Since independence that area has been reduced to about 29 million hectares. However, three million hectares is degraded forests, which leaves some 26 million hectares of intact forests. Moreover, the 26 million hectares is continuously being deforested or degraded through logging, commercial agriculture, shifting cultivation and mining, and petroleum activities. The PNG government recognises that the drive for economic growth will be largely by the exploitation of natural resources. This brings a risk of unsustainable increases in logging, commercial agriculture, shifting cultivation, and mining and petroleum activities to satisfy medium-term development goals. Thus, although these activities are economically important for PNG, they pose a direct threat to the existence of natural forests and the associated biodiversity.

Table 3

Carbon Dioxide Emissions (Million Metric Tons of CO2)

Total from Consumption of Fossil Fuels (Source: National GHG Inventory)

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

2.46 2.43 2.55 2.58 2.47 2.6 2.66 2.66 2.56

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

2.56 2.58 2.58 3.66 4.23 4.28 4.35 NA NA An estimate by the World Resources Institute (2008) indicates that land use change and forestry account for 96% of PNG’s net GHG emissions. Some 4,724-4,735 million metric tons of carbon were stored in PNG’s primary forests in 2002, not including carbon in forest soils. Between 1972 and 2002, deforestation resulted in the release of a net 926.5 million tonnes (Mt) of carbon (3,397 Mt of CO2), with an additional 76.39-88.83 Mt of carbon (280.1-325.7 Mt of CO2) being released through logging related forest degradation. The main drivers of forest change in PNG over the last 30 years were: (i) plantations: 1%; (ii) forest fires: 4.4%; (iii) subsistence agriculture: 45.6%; (iv) logging: 48.2%; and (v) mining: 0.6%. Thus, logging and subsistence agriculture account for the highest loss of forestry. GHG emissions are expected to continue to increase, by up to 32% by 2030 under the business-as-usual scenario (Figure 13) (PNG, 2010). In comparison with other APEC member

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economies, the increase in CO2 emissions is minimal. Current land use, and-use change and forestry (LULUCF) emissions are estimated at 80-97 Mt CO2e p.a. and would increase by up to 32% by 2030 to 89-128 Mt CO2e under the same business-as-usual scenario. Other GHG emissions are still low in comparison, but would increase from 2.5-3.5 Mt CO2e in 2010 to 10-14 Mt CO2e by 2030 under the same scenario.

Figure 13. Business-as-usual GHG emissions by sector (Mt of CO2e/year) (source: PNG, 2010). There are numerous technically feasible, cost-effective options for emissions abatement and sequestration by reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and increasing forest carbon stocks. For every driver of deforestation and degradation, there are multiple abatement options, including full abatement by stopping an activity, or partial abatement by reducing the carbon intensity of the activity. There is up to 77 Mt of abatement potential in 2030 from programmes tackling emissions from LULUCF (PNG, 2010). For the non-forestry sectors, emissions can be reduced by approximately 20%, i.e., 2.2 Mt CO2e in 2030 compared to business-as-usual levels, mostly from the power sector. Approximately half the abatement potential (1.2 Mt CO2e) would come from a near total decarbonisation of the power sector at largely negative abatement costs (but at a substantial capital cost, approaching USD 200 million of investment required if rural electrification is included). This decarbonisation will also reduce indirect emissions from the manufacturing and service sectors as these sectors would rely on a cleaner generation of energy. There are also interesting abatement opportunities in the oil and gas and transportation sectors. The drive for emissions growth in power will be mainly by the tripling of installed capacity in the three grid-connected areas. Although Papua New Guinea’s power sector already has a high share of renewable energy, there is potential to decarbonise it completely because renewable energy sources are relatively abundant (PNG, 2010). PNG can make great strides towards its stated objective of becoming carbon neutral by 2050 if it takes full advantage of technically achievable abatement and sequestration opportunities. Carbon neutral means that emission from all sectors should be compensated by carbon enhancement through afforestation/reforestation and carbon protection from forest conservation. Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and increasing

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forest carbon stocks sector in particular can make a substantial contribution, decreasing emissions by up to 70% by 2030 compared with the business-as-usual scenario (Figure 14).

Figure 14. Emissions from all sectors under maximum abatement scenario for 2005 to 2030 (Mt of CO2e/year) (source: PNG, 2010). f) Policy Implications PNG will be affected by climate change, but it could also be a beneficiary from some of the measures to mitigate change, notably from the resource owners and the state potentially receiving payments for the service of retaining carbon stored in its existing, and perhaps restored and newly planted forests. To address the challenge of climate change, including the immediate victims, and for these potential benefits to be achieved, the government is being urged, in close consultation with and support of the private sector, civil society, and development partners (where needed and available), to establish credible and transparent policies and mechanisms for addressing climate change, including through carbon trading. The approaches should be plausible to PNG’s forest resource owners, development partners, the international carbon market (including rigorous auditing/regulatory requirements), and the world community. With the growing recognition of the role of rainforests in storing carbon, and the extent to which forest clearance contributes to GHG emissions and climate change, PNG has been active in promoting the need to incorporate standing forests under post-Kyoto arrangements from 2012. This means extending emission trading and other arrangements beyond afforestation, as currently provided for by the CDM arrangements under the Kyoto Protocol. PNG has proposed to start, on a voluntary basis, reductions of emissions by reducing deforestation.

For REDD to effectively generate funding for forest protection through the carbon market, the private sector must be fully engaged. The private sector has the capacity for strong implementation of action on emissions reductions, but requires a framework to operate within, and guidance if it is to be effectively engaged. REDD requires significant financial investment. The private sector is in the best position to make the required large-scale investments, but local communities should also be engaged and benefit. The carbon market can work to engage local communities and drive private sector investment, but only if designed correctly.

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Legislation and government policies concerning natural resource management place traditional resource owners and local communities in a central role. Currently, however, methods for planning and implementing local initiatives in natural resource management or conservation are poorly developed in PNG. For the past decade, very little support has been given to local groups wanting to pursue some form of sustainable development, or introduce locally important environment or biodiversity protection measures. The country’s intended system of protected areas or conservation areas is not working, largely because there is inadequate response to community interest. Many opportunities to protect sites and species of high conservation importance are therefore being lost. In most cases, community control over development is minimal and benefits to them are almost non-existent. Communities are looking for ways to retain control over their natural resources, to protect the subsistence base on which their survival depends and to find methods for raising cash without destroying their environmental capital. Many local communities are interested in using appropriate measures–site-specific, species or habitat-based–to safeguard the natural productivity and diversity of their lands and coastal sea areas for sustainability. Business can use the tools and mechanisms provided in order to address this growing threat in a way that strengthens sustainable development. The private sector can play an important role through investment, financial flows, technology development, and deployment. In PNG, private sector adaptation and disaster risk reduction mainstreaming is of urgent importance. Science and technology can provide the ability to avoid serious harm being inflicted on the most vulnerable groups of people by climate change. Public services are increasingly being privatised, but without the introduction of requisite risk management considerations. The need for such mainstreaming is reinforced by the private sector internationally. This increases climate-related risks, as evidenced by the global emergence of many climate change investor groups to confront business losses attributed to climate change. Business can also make an important contribution to efforts to adapt to the impacts of climate change. A strong partnership between governments, international institutions, and the private sector is needed in order to mobilize the capital and technology needed to prepare PNG for the impacts of climate change. Despite mitigation efforts, the impacts of climate change are already being felt by PNG, and will worsen in the future. PNG needs substantial investment in disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation if it is to avoid an additional burden falling on its already strained development efforts. Led by both the national and provincial governments, these investments represent a significant business opportunity. Government leadership on adaptation is emerging, and organizations have progressed in understanding the impacts of climate change as well as developing some tools and mechanisms to enable a strong response. However, to date, much of the private sector has been standing on the sidelines, awaiting a strong policy framework to be put in place. Nevertheless, a significant number of companies in PNG already undertake actions that enhance adaptive capacity and expand the coping range of communities. g) Recent Government Stocktake A recent report (PNG, 2010) prepared by DEC on behalf of the Prime Minister and PNG presents a comprehensive assessment of Papua New Guinea’s climate-compatible development, including opportunities for economic development, climate change mitigation, and adaptation. It highlights that PNG is committed to developing a thriving economy (annual growth

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of 7%, Figure 15), a fair and happy society, and a sustainable environment, as set out in the Vision 2050. PNG has taken a global lead in seeking to combat climate change, particularly by proposing measures to activate the carbon abatement opportunity offered by preserving tropical forests. Deforestation and forest degradation are major contributors to GHG emissions, through large-scale logging and the conversion of forests into agricultural use. These activities continue because the value of forests as carbon sinks and a source of livelihood have not been fully recognised by market mechanisms.

Figure 15. Development strategy for PNG, with heavy reliance on agriculture, mining, oil, gas, and services (source: PNG, 2010). Together, with other rainforest nations, PNG is working to create a mechanism for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation, enhancing carbon stocks, and managing forests sustainably in developing countries (REDD+). REDD+ will enable developed countries to pay for the ecosystem services provided by PNG and other developing countries. The Copenhagen Accord of December 2009 recognised the fundamental role of REDD+ in climate change mitigation and makes substantial funding available for the first time, starting with a commitment of USD 3.5 billion globally for the period 2010-12. In total, funding of USD 30 billion will be made available for the three-year period to support the implementation of mitigation and adaptation actions in developing countries in line with their national development strategies. This recognition marks a broader shift in the terms of the climate change debate, in which there must be an alignment between climate change and economic development. PNG is also committed to mitigating domestic GHG emissions. Vision 2050 envisages low-carbon economic development, with an aspirational goal of carbon neutrality by 2050. Preliminary analysis suggests possible emissions reductions by up to two-thirds (compared with a “business-as-usual” growth scenario) by 2030, at an average estimated cost of approximately USD 4/t of carbon dioxide equivalent. This reduction can be achieved through large-scale abatement measures such as changing forestry practices, increasing agricultural yields and shifting to renewable power sources. Some of these measures will require significant investment in building infrastructure now to support a low-carbon growth path over the next 40 years.

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REDD+ mechanisms are expected to be an important source of the necessary funds, but in order to access these funds PNG will have to develop an effective and transparent institutional framework to manage them. It will also need to develop technical and managerial capacity for activities such as MRV of agreed emissions reductions. REDD+ is also expected to provide a significant boost to conservation, protected areas, and biodiversity; specific policies for these areas will be developed by DEC under its policy for ESEG, which complements this strategy. Besides mitigating GHG emissions, PNG will ensure that development is more climate-resilient. Protecting PNG’s people and economy from these risks requires a thorough understanding of the nature and the size of the problem and the best ways to tackle it here in PNG. Preliminary analysis suggests that the average cost of coastal flooding could increase from USD 20 million per year to USD 90-100 million by 2030 and the economic loss due to malaria from USD 130 million to USD 210-250 million per year, as a result of the interaction of climate change with the increased value of assets at risk due to economic growth. Cost-effective adaptation measures could avert 65-85% of these losses. International support will be required to carry out further analysis, build capacity, develop pilot programs, and scale up the selected measures. Climate-compatible development will require broad cooperation across all elements of PNG’s society. PNG is preparing to reshape its national institutions so that it is able and ready to implement climate-compatible development. Beyond government, the refinement and successful implementation of the climate-compatible development strategy will require strong coordination and collaboration with private sectors and NGOs, as well as technical and financial support from the global community. Most importantly, the strategy will only work if local communities are involved in its design, supporting its implementation, and sharing in its benefits. The Copenhagen Accord recognizes that mitigation and adaptation to climate change are inseparable from economic development. PNG welcomes this and is now taking steps to ensure climate-compatible development for its entire people. 5. Key Policy Objectives and Strategic Priorities This section draws on both the understanding and principles documented above, to inform identification of possible key national policy objectives and strategic priorities related to mitigation (including REDD), adaptation, financing, identification, and uptake of appropriate technologies. The choice of possible objectives and priorities is also influenced by higher-level national policies and plans as well as the content of the draft National Climate Change Policy Framework for PNG, draft climate change plans and other documentation. The policy options are assessed from the perspectives of global environmental benefits, national interests, and community needs, among others. This includes suggesting options for performance targets and indicators that might be used to assess implementation of a national climate change strategy. The key policy objectives underpinning PNG’s comprehensive response to climate change might be framed by the goal of sustainable economic growth and sustained social progress. Relevant policy objectives might well include some or all of the following: Enhanced resilience of PNG to climate change–reducing the potential for climate change to destabilize economic growth, exacerbate food and water shortages, and erode recent gains in poverty reduction, hindering the PNG’s progress to meet Millennium Development Goals; the focus should be on reducing vulnerability and building the resilience of communities and the

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private sector to adapt and respond effectively to the adverse effects of climate change; adaptation support should be prioritised to assist those most vulnerable to climate change impacts and those who are least able to respond. Increased use of cost-effective measures to reduce GHG emissions–PNG can benefit from mitigation efforts such as energy conservation and efficiency, but faces a mitigation quandary—its relatively small GHG emissions limits access to carbon finance while at the same time PNG is heavily reliant on petroleum-based fuels for power generation and transport. Increased sequestration of carbon through avoided deforestation and degradation–reducing the rate of deforestation and degradation and increasing conversion of non-intact forests and other land use to intact forests can enhance both carbon and non-carbon values. Exploit beneficial synergies, such as those between adaptation, disaster risk reduction and mitigation–this is a productive way to balance the current trade-offs being made between the multiple objectives of sustainable development, slowing the build-up of GHGs in the atmosphere, and reducing vulnerability to climate change. Improved systems of climate change governance, including stronger institutions and more informed decision-making–collaboration between governments, and with other stakeholders, is essential for effective responses to climate change; improved governance, including organizational, institutional, policy, and decision-making frameworks, increases effectiveness of leadership and coordination, and provides the basis for more informed decision-making and more efficient and effective allocation of resources. Timely mobilization of adequate internal and external financial resources–a major challenge for PNG is to ensure adequate, predictable and sustainable financial resources for mitigation, adaptation, and technology development and uptake. Ensure the people of PNG are equipped and empowered with the relevant knowledge and skills to address climate change–motivated individuals with the requisite knowledge and skills are critical to PNG being able to respond to climate change in a timely and effective manner. Increased use of appropriate technologies to reduce PNG’s net GHG emissions and increase resilience to climate change–this objective will require use of new and RE technologies, new technologies for energy efficiency and conservation, carbon sink technologies and adaptation technologies. The above key policy objectives and strategic priorities are consistent with those recently identified by the PNG government (PNG, 2010) as priorities for climate-compatible development, namely: � Climate change mitigation, adaptation and low-carbon growth need to be incorporated into

national development planning. Policies in other sectors will also have to be reviewed to ensure they are climate-compatible;

� Further research and analysis will be required in some areas, such as developing a comprehensive GHG inventory and enhancing our understanding of climate risks;

� Many aspects of climate-compatible development require existing institutions to develop new capacities and ways of working. International support will be necessary to help develop these capacities;

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� A new institution will have to be created to take charge of climate change policy at the heart of government in the post-Copenhagen reality. A high priority for this institution will be to develop MRV system(s), fund disbursement mechanisms and benefit-sharing models that ensure benefits accrue equitably to resource owners;

� Pilot programmes will be required to enhance the knowledge base, identify the most effective institutional arrangements, test the new policies and build capacity; and

� A large-scale consultation exercise will need to be launched to involve local communities and landowners in critical elements of the strategy, especially arrangements for benefit sharing.

Table 4 presents possible priorities related to each of the above objectives, as well as proposed performance targets and indicators. Together, the proposed actions would facilitate sustainable economic and social progress consistent with the MTDS’ three objectives and seven core sectoral expenditure priorities. The priorities described in Table 4 reflect the opportunities and associated emission reduction potential that could place PNG on a lower carbon intensity growth path as well as the actions to reduce PNG’s vulnerability to climate change, including links to disaster risk reduction. 6. Sector Policies and Linkages The following sector-by-sector analysis will focus on how best to ensure each sector develops high resilience to climate change, reduces emissions of GHGs and takes advantage of any opportunities climate change presents to the sector. The sectors considered in this section are the ones that are the most significant emitters of GHGs (Figure 13), have the greatest potential to sequester carbon or are the most vulnerable to climate change. a) Agriculture Agriculture is the predominant occupation in PNG, with over 82% of the population engaged in agriculture, including animal and fishery work. It is the source of sustenance, food security, and income generation for many households. The agricultural population is being and will continue to be most affected by climate change. However, it is this same population that can also contribute to reducing the effects of climate change on PNG, if it is well informed and becomes engaged in addressing climate change. Agriculture is vulnerable to the potential impacts of climate change. In particular, the predicted changes to temperature, rainfall, drought frequency, and extreme events may significantly impact agriculture.

Table 4

Possible Priorities, Performance Targets and Indicators for Each Policy Objective

Objective Priorities Performance Targets Indicators

� Enhanced resilience of PNG to climate

� Government providing leadership, support and direction to assist other sectors of society to

� National Adaptation Framework prepared and being implemented

� Number of adaptation projects consistent with

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Objective Priorities Performance Targets Indicators

change recognize their adaptation needs and to achieve their adaptation goals

� Promote, encourage and facilitate research and development activities on adaptation aspects of climate change

� Prepare and implement National Guidelines for Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change

� Prepare and implement national adaptation strategies and measures

� Develop evidence-based awareness and understanding of vulnerability to climate change

� Promote environmentally sound adaptation activities that support sustainable livelihoods and economic prosperity

� Adaptation support for the most vulnerable who are least able to respond

implemented

� Comprehensive understanding of key vulnerabilities and the priority adaptation measures to address them

� National Mainstreaming Guidelines prepared and being implemented

� Adaptation strategies in place for key sectors

� Science-based assessments of vulnerability for key sectors and communities

� High awareness in key sectors of appropriate measures to increase resilience

� Pilot adaptation projects implemented in most vulnerable sectors and communities

the framework

� Number of targeted, policy and action relevant reports documenting research findings

� Number of policies, plans and codes where climate change adaptation is given practical consideration

� Number of sectors with agreed adaptation strategies

� Number of sectors and communities with rigorous assessments of vulnerability

� Number of sectors with practical strategies and plans

� Number of communities with declining vulnerability

� Increased use of cost-effective measures to reduce GHG

� Implement energy efficiency and energy conservation measures

� Reduce emissions across all sectors, including energy, transport, agriculture, forestry, mining and petroleum and waste, using cost effective measures

� Actively engage with CDM to maximize financial and technical assistance for emissions reduction

� GHG emissions reduced 50% by 2020 and 100% by 2050

� Mitigation strategies in place for all sectors, with each sector contributing to achievement of the national target

� National Policy on CDM promoting the use of clean industrial practices and technology

� CDM Framework and National Policy consistent with the UNFCCC framework

� National GHG emissions data from GHG inventory

� Sector GHG emissions data from GHG inventory

� Policy approved

� Designated National Authority (DNA) approved and operational

� Total carbon credits in CDM

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Objective Priorities Performance Targets Indicators

UNFCCC framework for DNA operations prepared and implemented

projects

� Increased sequestration of carbon through avoided deforestation and degradation

� Promote and implement REDD strategies

� Sustainable land management

� Ensure resources owners and other stakeholders fully participate and benefit from REDD initiatives

� National REDD Strategy approved and implemented

� National Carbon Assessment and Monitoring System approved and implemented

� National Sustainable Land Management Plan, including strategies for maximizing carbon sequestration approved and implemented

� Nation Policy for benefit sharing under REDD approved and implemented

� Amounts of carbon sequestered in PNG’s forests and soils

� Government and international approvals

� Forested area under sustainable management

� Portion of major resource owners who approve of National Policy

� Beneficial synergies exploited

� Comprehensive analysis of climate change options

� Harmonize adaptation and disaster risk reduction

� Exploit beneficial synergies between adaptation and mitigation

� Adaptation, mitigation and REDD options, synergies and priorities assessed

� Policy, institutional, funding and other relevant arrangements for adaptation and disaster risk reduction integrated, as appropriate

� Relevant synergies between adaptation and mitigation identified and demonstrated

� Number of initiatives based on the assessment findings

� Extent to which adaptation and disaster risk reduction are integrated

� Number of projects exploiting the synergies

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� Improved systems of climate change governance

� Prepare National Strategic Plan on Climate Change, in close consultation with relevant central agencies of government

� Empowered, well-managed and participatory Office of Climate Change and Environmental Sustainability

� An active and informed national government strategy for UNFCCC negotiations

� A legal framework to address climate change risks, beginning with a Climate Change Legislation

� Decision making and governance recognize that all stakeholders have a role to play in addressing the risks and benefits of climate change

� Promote and coordinate partnerships, cooperation and institutional strengthening with key stakeholders

� National Strategic Plan on Climate Change and Environmental Sustainability prepared and approved

� Fully operational Office of Climate Change and Environment Sustainability

� PNG’s Position for the Post-2012 UNFCCC climate change negotiations prepared and articulated

� Climate Change Act in force

� Roles, responsibilities and benefits for all stakeholders elaborated in the National Strategic Plan

� Effective leadership and coordination by government, resulting in far more informed decision-making and resource allocation

� Plan submitted to the Central Agencies Coordinating Committee for endorsement and approval by the National Executive Council

� Ratings in performance based assessments of the Office

� International agreements consistent with PNG’s national policies

� Act passed by parliament

� Climate change policies, strategies and plans reflect participatory approaches

� Allocation of resources for climate change based on agreed performance criteria

� Timely mobilization of adequate internal and external financial resources

� A well-governed and transparent Climate Change Trust Fund

� Design and implement a prudent investment mechanism to enable the implementation of national adaptation strategies and action plans

� Develop a national adaptation and insurance mechanism

� Climate Change Trust Fund established and operational

� Funding provided through the CDM, the GEF and Official Development Assistance (ODA) sources

� National Adaptation and Climate Insurance mechanism developed and operational

� Multi-stakeholder support for the Trust Fund

� Available funding for mitigation and adaptation, relative to needs

� Multi-stakeholder support for the mechanisms

� People of � People with capacity to be � Climate change � Number of

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PNG are equipped and empowered with the relevant knowledge and skills to address climate change

resilient to the risks and impacts of climate change

� Promote, encourage and facilitate research and development activities on mitigation and adaptation aspects of climate change

� Ensure that the children of PNG become the agents of change and emissions reduction and adaptation become integral parts of their lives

included and mainstreamed in the current curricula of the formal education system

� Research and development projects in place to ensure PNG is well informed on emerging issues and opportunities

� Formal and informal education activities to share information and create interest in climate change issues and responses

students receiving formal education in climate change

� Gaps and uncertainties in understanding of climate change

� Number of individuals receiving formal and information education in climate change

� Increased use of appropriatetechnologies to reduce PNG’s net GHG emissions and increase resilience to climate change

� A RE agenda

� Increase use of appropriate low carbon and RE technologies

� Increase use of new and traditional adaptation technologies

� Agenda to increase access to RE technologies approved and implemented

� Increased use of low carbon and RE technologies

� New and traditional adaptation technologies assessed and priority technologies identified and documented

� Renewable energy agenda approved

� Emissions reduction attributable to new technologies

� Uptake of priority adaptation technologies

Climate change affects agriculture in several ways:

� Productivity, in terms of quantity and quality of crops � Practices, through changes of water use (irrigation) and agricultural inputs such as

herbicides, insecticides, and fertilizers � Environmental effects, in particular in relation of frequency and intensity of soil drainage

(leading to nitrogen leaching), soil erosion, and reduction of crop diversity � Rural space, through the loss and gain of cultivated lands, land speculation, land

abandonment, and hydraulic amenities; and � Adjustments, since organisms may become more or less competitive, and people may

develop more competitive organisms, such as flood resistant or salt resistant varieties of rice

Increasing atmospheric CO2 levels, driven by emissions from human activities, can act as a fertilizer and enhance the growth of some crops, such as wheat, rice, and soybeans. However, it is anticipated that other aspects of climate change (e.g., temperature and precipitation changes) will temper any beneficial CO2 fertilization effect. Weeds will evolve rapidly to overcome control

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measures. Short-lived weeds, and those that spread vegetatively, will evolve at the greatest rate. Grassland and arable weeds could become more tolerant to control measures. Surveillance and eradication processes for significant pests will become increasingly important. The rate of evolution will increase in hotter, drier conditions and in '’extreme years,'’ possibly resulting in some types of herbicide tolerance becoming more common. Increases in the range of many native pests are likely. Species that are not economically important at present may become so. Agricultural activities contribute directly to emissions of GHGs through a variety of processes, including enteric fermentation in domestic livestock, livestock manure management, flooded and irrigated rice cultivation, agricultural soil management, field burning of agricultural residues, and energy consumption for cultivation, transport, storage, and other purposes. There are several opportunities for agriculture to reduce GHG emissions as well as increase the quantity of sequestered carbon, including:

� Developing feed supplements that reduce methane emissions from cattle and sheep � Increasing conservation tillage and other crop residue management practices to lower

emissions from equipment and increase soil organic-matter content � Improving management of cattle waste and, where possible, trapping, and processing

methane for its energy and nutrient content � Applying nitrogen fertilizers at times, and in quantities and forms, determined by plant

requirements � Using low GHG emission fuels, such as gas, diesel, and ethanol � Growing tree crops as well as food crops to capture carbon � Afforesting savannas � Growing bio-energy crops, to capture carbon as well as provide energy

Policy objectives and priorities worthy of consideration are shown in Table 5.

Table 5

Proposed Climate Change Response Objectives and Priorities for the Agriculture Sector

Objective Immediate Priorities

Identify and demonstrate cropping and related practices that reduce emissions and increase stored carbon

Identify and demonstrate opportunities for cost-effective energy efficiency and energy conservation

Reduced net GHG emissions from agriculture

Increased use of non-food, bio-energy crops

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Up-scale surveillance and eradication processes for significant pests and diseases

Ensure that intensification of food production systems does not increase vulnerability to climate change

Increased resilience of agriculture-dependent communities by diversifying food and income sources

Increased resilience to climate change

Identify and demonstrate measures that will reduce climate-related disasters in the agriculture sector and communities

Improved understanding of the linkages between agriculture and climate change, through education, training, and awareness raising

A strong enabling environment for mitigation and adaptation in the agriculture sector

Improved decision-making and good governance, including strengthened partnerships and cooperation

b) Energy In addition to being the major source of PNG’s GHG emissions, much of this sector’s infrastructure is in areas that are predicted to become increasingly physically unstable owing to changes in the environment. Already, there have been environment-related disruptions to hydroelectric installations, oil and gas production, pipelines, and electrical transmission. As a result of the commissioning of new energy sources, revised environmental standards, stimulus spending and further economic development, there is likely to be substantial investment in new energy infrastructure in the near future. It is therefore critical that new and existing infrastructure be designed or retrofitted for changing environmental conditions, and especially changes in climate. PNG has substantial deposits of hydrocarbons, mainly natural gas. The recoverable, proved and probable natural gas resources are estimated at 428 billion cubic meters (m3), equivalent to about 3 billion barrels of oil. Planning and design work are proceeding for the production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) for export. The pipeline carrying gas from onshore gas fields to the planned LNG plant may enable the supply of natural gas to domestic users, particularly power generators. The country is potentially rich in RE resources suitable for power production, particularly hydropower. However, much of the resources are in remote locations, where there is limited demand and the energy resources are not readily exploitable. Other potential energy sources are geothermal, wind, solar, and marine. There is no single preferred energy source–the geography of PNG calls for articulated power sector optimization, based on small, disaggregated markets. Between the early 1980s and mid-1990s the University of Papua New Guinea, the University of Technology, and the government’s Energy and Forestry Departments assessed rural RE potential. There is only limited information since then. No systematic geothermal energy or wind energy assessments have been carried out recently. There are also limited hydrological surveys, and thus, hydroelectric potential is approximate. Solar energy is among the largest potential sources of energy in PNG. Site assessments showed that the best locations for solar photovoltaic (PV) systems are the offshore islands and the southern regions. There has been a longstanding interest within PNG’s two universities to develop RE technologies. Until the mid-1980s PNG was the region’s leader in biomass energy for agro processing, biogas, biomass gasification, wood, and charcoal cooking, ethanol production, solar PV, and resource assessments. In 1994, the World Bank estimated the gross potential for

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large-scale hydro as roughly 20,000 MW, with a technically feasible potential of 14,000 MW. The economically feasible sites could deliver about 4,200 MW. These estimates excluded micro and mini-hydro for rural communities. These have a large exploitable potential. Coconut plantations are widespread throughout PNG and may be a potential source of power as coconut-based bio-diesel becomes a viable option. There is very limited knowledge of PNG’s potential for ocean thermal energy conversion, tidal energy, or wave energy. Despite recent developments, there are no commercially available and proven technologies. Although two thirds of PNG is covered with forest, much of it is inaccessible or unsuited for energy production. Almost 60% of land is subject to strong or severe erosion and 18% is permanently inundated or regularly flooded. The main practical biomass energy potential is in areas of logging or agricultural production, using either the crop output or residues. Recently, the private sector has largely driven RE use. The coffee industry still uses wood-burning driers, the palm oil industry exploits wood waste for electricity, and Ramu Sugar plans to use wood for combustion in its bagasse boilers. At least several thousand new solar home lighting systems are expected to be installed in rural PNG, overwhelmingly through private initiatives. Yet barriers to successful long-term use of RE technologies (RETs) seem to be considerable. About three quarters of mini/micro hydro systems installed are no longer in use, a large percentage of PV systems have failed, and the majority of distributed power systems are operating poorly, or not at all. Accurately projecting future patterns of energy demand, and hence CO2 emissions, is difficult. However, one study has estimated that if PNG invested massively in RETs that are already commercially available it could, in principle, reduce emissions by about 1000 gigagrammes (Gg) per year, or about 70% of total 2001 emissions. This estimate ignores various economic, financial, political, social, technical, environmental, and other practical constraints, and, is thus only broadly indicative of possibilities. The bulk of potential reductions would come from hydropower, geothermal, and fuel ethanol. Even a large PV or wind energy programme would provide only modest GHG reductions. The study did not consider emerging applications such as fuel cell technology using some of PNG’s vast natural gas resource as fuel. Although this is not RE, natural gas produces only about 60-70% of the emissions of liquid petroleum fuels, depending on the fuel displaced. A more recent assessment of the benefits of energy substitution for reducing GHG emissions, undertaken by the Asian Development Bank, suggests that hydropower and the use of landfill gas provide significant opportunities. More widespread use of RE will have environmental implications. For both GHG reductions and RE production, the biggest impacts may come from large hydropower, ethanol, geothermal, biodiesel and small hydro, respectively. If poorly planned or implemented, any of these could have detrimental environmental impacts. Hydro projects above 10 MW can undermine moves toward sustainable development, and even energy security, especially where changes in weather patterns reduce rainfall. GHG emissions can come from rotting matter in reservoirs. Smaller hydro can be environmentally and socially low-impact. For hydro projects to have low social and environmental impacts, they should be planned, built and operated in line with the recommendations of the World Commission on Dams. Environmental issues for ethanol as a fuel in PNG are similar to those of biomass use in general, namely conversion of forests to biomass plantations, encouraging clear cutting, nutrient draining, use of toxic chemicals, increased erosion and possible loss of wetlands. Despite possible hydrogen sulphide emissions, geothermal is relatively environmentally friendly,

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producing about 0.1% of the GHG emissions of fossil fuelled power plants for the same energy output. If carelessly developed, there can be negative impacts from drilling wells. It is generally assumed that only 10% of vegetable oil production in PNG might be used for fuel. As a result, the impact should be no more severe than current agricultural practices. Vegetable oils are low in emissions, contain almost no sulphur or hazardous materials, and are readily biodegradable. Policy objectives and priorities worthy of consideration are shown in Table 6.

Table 6

Proposed Climate Change Response Objectives and Priorities for the Energy Sector

Objective Immediate Priorities

Reduce energy demand through cost effective energy conservation measures

Undertake energy resource assessments, evaluate options and demonstrate feasibility of using alternative sources of energy with lower global warming potential

Reduced GHG emissions from energy production

Evaluate and demonstrate cost-effective improvements in the efficiency of energy supply and transmission

Assess vulnerability of existing energy infrastructure to climate change (including extremes and variability) and prepare fundable proposals to reduce the significant risks Increased resilience of energy infrastructure

to climate change Develop and apply guidance on assessing climate risks for planned energy infrastructure and ensure guidance is applied at the design stage

Improved understanding of the linkages between energy production and climate change, through education, training, and awareness raising A strong enabling environment for mitigation

and adaptation in the energy sector Improved decision-making and good governance, including strengthened partnerships and cooperation

c) Forestry As noted above, one of the major contributing factors to PNG’s increased net GHG emissions is the release of carbon in the biomass of tropical rainforests, including soils. This occurs as a result of deforestation, notably for conversion to agricultural production, and of forest degradation. The latter is prevalent with selective logging and lower intensity agriculture or gardening. While PNG is clearly not a significant producer of GHGs from industrial or household energy consumption, overall or per capita, it does retain the largest area of remaining tropical rainforest in the Southeast Asian/Pacific region, and one of the largest globally. PNG and other rainforest nations recognize that they have a major role to play, by continuing to sequester carbon in their forests and halting or even reversing deforestation and forest degradation. PNG’s position and commitments to REDD include reducing the rate of deforestation and degradation and increasing the activities for converting non-intact forests and other land use to intact forest. REDD compensation mechanisms are seen as having two components, namely compensation for loss of revenue from activities that are driving an increased rate of deforestation and degradation; and compensation for implementing activities that reduce

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emissions under REDD mechanisms. There are also non-carbon values from which the governments and landowners can benefit, including protected areas–tourism, maintaining cultural heritage, spiritual aspirations, recreation and others; and environmental services for communities–clean water; coastal protection; catchment protection for water supply; clean air; and biodiversity protection. Increasingly, local communities in PNG are becoming frustrated with the perceived lack of effective development and progress in the rural areas and are demanding greater control of their own resources and local developments. Provincial and local government reforms have provided an opportunity to address this issue, and in the process initiate and establish sustainable development concepts in the planning and implementation framework of the country at large. However, there are large differences in the value placed on natural resources, as illustrated in Table 7.

Table 7

Estimated per ha values for Various Forest Uses in PNG Source: WWF

The forest sector already has a well-developed framework for action related to climate change. The PNG Forest Authority prepared it. Its goal is to “ensure that the PNG people build their capacity to be resilient to the risks and impacts of climate change through implementing adaptation measures; contributing to mitigation of GHG emissions; improving decision-making and good governance; improving understanding of climate change and its effects; education and awareness; and developing and strengthening partnerships and cooperation. The framework is organized around seven “principles,” all of which are consistent with the principles proposed here for the national framework. They are the following:

� Ownership of carbon credits � Implementing adaptation measures � Contributing to mitigation of GHG emissions � Improving decision-making and good governance � Improving understanding of forestry and climate change � Education and awareness

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� Partnership and cooperation

With the emergence of a national climate change framework, the forest sector might now place emphasis on identifying opportunities to improve alignment with national policy, including performance targets and indicators, as well as minimizing any adverse consequences of policy implementation for other sectors and for the country as a whole. d) Health The health sector will be impacted by climate change. For example, changes in temperature and weather patterns can impact on the growth of micro-organisms, as well as on natural disasters. As a result, emerging or re-emerging diseases can occur. Changes in temperature make it more conducive for the hosts of certain diseases to migrate to new locations, as is the case for malaria. The movement of certain poisonous snakes will be encouraged by temperature variations, leading to more snake bites. High temperatures result in more deaths associated with heat stress, the most vulnerable being children, the elderly, and the infirm. Food scarcity increases malnutrition problems as well as social problems, such as stealing and tribal fights. Increases in food borne disease can often be attributed to poor water supplies, or to no potable water being available. The health sector is responding as part of a restructuring initiative and will include climate change considerations in the National Health Plan 2011-2020. The Department of Health is also working closely with provincial health authorities to monitor the issue, and foster cross-disciplinary partnership with stakeholders. This includes raising awareness and promotion of climate change and its implications for health. Existing infrastructure will be strengthened and staff numbers will be assessed to ensure adequate human resources are available to attend to climate-related issues such as natural disasters. Policy objectives and priorities worthy of consideration are shown in Table 8. e) Water

In rural PNG only 20% of the population has access to an improved water supply. This includes public standpipes, boreholes, protected wells, or springs. For the rest of the population, water is taken directly from the source. In the urban areas where PNG Water Board Services lie, 91% of the population have access to treated and reticulated water. However, only 60% of these households receive piped water directly into their houses. The water resources available in a catchment are initially subject to natural climatic and other geophysical conditions. In addition, various land uses and waste disposal linked to population growth are also affecting the capacity to meet the need to provide water for a range of uses, in terms of both quantity and quality. There are few catchments that are directly accessible to the main urban towns and cities in PNG. Thus, development of these sources to sustain the demand is difficult. People settling in critical areas, such as headwaters, raise concerns such as contamination of the source. Land uses, such as agriculture, including cultivating crops that consume large amounts of water, often prevent other users from benefiting from the same source.

Catchments such as Laloki, Wahgi, and Bumbu are already overstressed with poor quality water yields and high water demand from various users. Additionally, there are no catchment management plans that indicate appropriate land uses for the area and distribute water resources on an equitable basis. The continuing increase in population caused communities and settlements to move into catchments that cannot support the new land uses, causing stress

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to both the environment and water resources. Clearing of riverbanks is causing increased erosion as well as build up of sediment in waterways. There is a need to develop a policy to regulate activities within such critical catchments, and provide for equitable distribution of the resources to all users.

Table 8

Proposed Climate Change Response Objectives and Priorities for the Health Sector

Objective Immediate Priorities

Raise awareness of the links between climate change and human health and well-being, and empower people and communities to reduce related health risks

Improved capacity of health services to undertake rapid testing and timely responses when disease outbreaks occur

Increased resilience of individuals

and communities to climate change

Implement pro-active human health risk reduction measures such as disaster risk reduction, injury prevention, and eradication of mosquito breeding sites

Reduced GHG emissions by the health sector

Reduce energy consumption through cost effective energy conservation and efficiency measures

Increased use of climate-ready technologies

Evaluate and adopt technologies that reduce climate-related risks including those related to mosquito control, water supply, drainage and sanitation systems, early warning, and injury prevention

Improved understanding of the linkages between human health and climate change, through education, training, and awareness raising A strong enabling environment for mitigation

and adaptation in the health sector Improved decision-making and good governance, including strengthened partnerships and cooperation

Policy objectives and priorities worthy of consideration are shown in Table 9. 7. Legal, Institutional, Planning and Budgetary Frameworks

This section addresses the key requirements of the enabling environment if responses to climate change are to be effective and efficient. The focus is on how to maximize the alignment between development, implementation of the climate change strategy, and the wider development planning and related processes. One of the important realizations in recent years is that sustained achievement of development outcomes can be realized only through an integrated, ongoing and dynamic strengthening process (Figure 16). In the context of mitigation and adaptation, this encompasses five major components of the enabling environment:

� Wider knowledge and decision support tools � Specific assessments of opportunities to inform planning and decision making � Mainstreaming adaptation and mitigation into plans, policy, legislation and regulations � Monitoring and evaluation

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� Awareness raising and wider capacity building

Table 9

Proposed Climate Change Response Objectives and Priorities for the Water Sector

Objective Immediate Priorities

Establish water conservation areas

Expand application of sustainable land use practices to promote water conservation and protect watersheds

Reduced climate-related risks to water security for

individuals, communities, and industry Raise awareness of the links between climate change and water security, and empower people and communities to reduce climate-related risks to water quality and supply

Improved management of water catchments and infrastructure

Reduce energy consumption through cost effective energy conservation and efficiency measures

Increased use of climate-ready technologies Evaluate and adopt technologies that reduce climate-related risks including water quality testing, early warning, water conservation, waste, and wastewater management

Improved understanding of the linkages between climate change and water quality and quantity, through education, training, and awareness raising A strong enabling environment for mitigation

and adaptation in the water sector Improved decision-making and good governance, including strengthened partnerships and cooperation

Figure 16. Policy framework for climate change mitigation and adaptation. In addition, several initiatives contribute to achievement of process outcomes that provide for and promote effective responses to climate change, namely:

ContinuousImprovement

IndicatorsM onitoring

ReviewStrengthen

Decision SupportInformation

UnderstandingSkills

EmpowermentM ethods

Tools

Adaptation&

Mitigation

PoliciesStrategies

PlansActions

PrioritizeOpportunities

& Risks

ReviewEffectivenessof Outcomes

EnablingEnvironment

LegislationPolicy Instruments

Participatory PlanningM ainstreaming

FundingKnowledge & Skills

TechnologiesInstitutions

ImplementAdaptation& Mitigation

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� Mobilizing and capturing the benefits of grass roots action by the private sector and civil society

� Good governance and informed decision-making � Effective leadership and coordination amongst government agencies � Harmonization of needs-driven donor contributions � Well-organized and integrated policy, planning and budgetary processes

Harmonization of both the planned and actual responses with the national legal, institutional, planning, and budgetary frameworks is critical to ensuring strong coordination across sectors, as well as between national, regional, provincial, and community initiatives. This highlights the need for a policy framework and policy development process that addresses, through mitigation and adaptation, the additional immediate and longer-term opportunities and risks to development resulting from climate change. There are many potential synergies when mitigation and adaptation are undertaken in an integrated and coordinated manner, especially if this is done in the context of both national sustainable development and implementation of the many multilateral environmental agreements, not just the UNFCCC. There are many dimensions to the policy framework and process for mitigation and adaptation (Figure 16). Firstly, the framework acknowledges the iterative nature of the policy development process. The first iteration of the cycle will normally start with activities designed to support informed decision making related to needed or possible mitigation and adaptation initiatives. An enabling environment is critical to the successful implementation of those initiatives. Continuous improvement is ensured by reviewing the effectiveness of the initiatives that are undertaken. The information gained in the monitoring process will be used as input into the decision making in the next iteration. Informed decision making requires the capacity to undertake assessments such as those suggested in Tables 5 and 6. The outcomes of this phase of the cycle are preferred adaptation and mitigation strategies, selected on the basis of the costs and benefits in reducing both unacceptable climate-related risks and GHG emissions, and on the extent to which they contribute to sustainable development. Importantly, the framework recognizes the significance of the enabling environment for adaptation and mitigation. Most mitigation and adaptation initiatives will be undertaken at the enterprise or community level, but their success will very much depend on the supportive nature of the enabling environment. This is usually strengthened through longer-term actions by government. These actions are often with support from the international community, especially in the case of developing countries. The enabling environment for mitigation and adaptation comprises the high-level and robust systems and capabilities that foster adaptation and mitigation processes. This includes the mainstreaming of climate change, policy instruments (e.g., legislation and regulations), participatory planning, enhancement and use of human knowledge and skills, technology transfer (this includes revitalization and application of traditional knowledge and practices), and institutional capacities and financing. For example, the planned climate change legislation for PNG will provide the overarching legal framework to address the issues of climate change. A key component of the enabling environment in the context of addressing climate change and related issues is the ability to “mainstream”–that is infuse or integrate–policies and measures to address climate change into ongoing and new development policies, plans, and actions. Mainstreaming aims to enhance the effectiveness, efficiency, and longevity of initiatives directed at reducing climate-related risks through mitigation (in the longer term) and through adaptation

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(in the interim), while at the same time contributing to sustainable development and improved quality of life. Mainstreaming can help address the complex tensions between development policies aimed at immediate issues and the aspects of climate policy aimed at both current and longer-term concerns. The tensions often become most apparent when choices have to be made on the disbursement of limited government funds–for example, choices between supporting education and health programmes on the one hand, and funding climate change adaptation and mitigation initiatives on the other. Indeed, mainstreaming is largely about reducing tensions and conflicts, and avoiding the need to make choices, by identifying synergistic win-win situations. Thus, mainstreaming focuses on “no regrets” measures for adaptation and mitigation. Relevant policy instruments can be regulatory, market-based, or based on voluntary action. There are numerous options within each category. Emission standards and building codes are examples of regulatory policies, while vehicle taxation based on engine size, general fuel taxes, or subsidies towards RE sources are examples of market-based instruments. Voluntary initiatives include eco-labelling. The motivation behind market-based instruments is to achieve environmental goals at lower costs than would be possible through the use of regulatory measures. There is increasing recognition that “optimal taxes” in an economic sense are difficult to implement, and, for this reason, taxes are now often of a political nature (e.g., awareness building) rather than an economic one. Hence, environmental taxes are often designed to modify behaviour, by increasing prices and therefore reducing demand. If consumers are price sensitive, suppliers will be forced to factor the cost of any new tax into their cost structure. Taxes as policy instruments need to be equitable and simple. This means that the political, social, and economic impacts of the taxes need to be distributed fairly, while the total transaction or collection costs should not exceed the revenue generated through the taxes. Effective and efficient institutions, especially governmental institutions, are an important part of the enabling environment for adaptation and mitigation. Institutional capabilities and cooperation are perhaps key in this respect. Recently the Prime Minister of PNG announced the establishment of the Office of Climate Change and Development, replacing the Office of Climate Change and Environmental Sustainability (PNG, 2010). Climate change, including identification and implementation of appropriate technology-based mitigation and adaptation responses, is often a new and intimidating area of responsibility for government officials. For this and other reasons, there is often a tendency to defer to colleagues in environment and related ministries who have more experience, at least at a general level. The resulting scattered and uncoordinated approach to such a pervasive issue as climate change is far from optimal. Even in the absence of climate change, the cross-cutting nature of most development in countries such as PNG highlights the need for mechanisms that facilitate cooperation and collaboration between all ministries that have either a direct or indirect interest in the efficient and sustainable implementation of development. Climate change simply adds impetus to addressing this need. Mechanisms are required to ensure that individual and institutional cooperation and collaboration occurs. No one institutional set-up for oversight of policy development and implementation related to climate change is appropriate to all countries. However, international experience would favour a two-tiered structure comprising an inter-ministerial committee, with non-governmental representation, serviced by an inter-agency task force made up of senior officials and other individuals with relevant technical and policy-making experience. Furthermore, there is evidence to support the fact that these bodies should be directed and coordinated at the highest possible level of government. Lesser players are all too often ineffective in dealing with powerful

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ministries such as Public Works, Finance, Planning, Health and Natural Resources. The additional risks climate change imposes on development are in many cases indirect, with the initial impacts being felt by the water resources sector, agriculture, human health, infrastructure, and vulnerable terrestrial and marine ecosystems, with significant consequences for the national economy and for society at large. In conclusion, the leaders and senior officials of these key and influential ministries have abundant reason to engage with colleagues to ensure that appropriate action is taken to ensure that economic and social development, and natural ecosystems, are not impacted severely by climate change and that mitigation initiatives are implemented, consistent with sustainable development priorities.

8. Participation, Ownership, Partnership, and Cooperation Equitable participation, benefit sharing, productive partnerships and effective cooperation will be key to PNG securing a sustained and successful response to climate change. As a result, Tables 4 through 6, as well as 8 and 9, highlight the need for good governance, strong and inclusive leadership, and lasting cooperation. Participatory policy-making and planning often provide the foundation for building enduring and equitable relationships. These participatory processes actively engage significant stakeholders in the planning process, including objective setting, collective enquiry, and decision making. Participatory policy-making and planning have been advocated in the development literature, especially to ensure positive benefits from development at the community level. Participatory techniques, methods or approaches generate constructive collaboration among stakeholders who may not be used to working together, often come from different backgrounds, and may have different values and interests. Planning practitioners use a wide variety of methods, tailored to different tasks and situations, to support participatory planning. These include workshop-based and community-based methods for collaborative decision-making, methods for stakeholder consultation, and methods for incorporating participation and social analysis into plan development.

9. Financing Table 4 highlights the need for timely mobilization of adequate internal and external financial resources, including establishing a well-governed and transparent Climate Change Trust Fund, designing and implementing a prudent investment mechanism to fund adaptation, and developing a national adaptation and insurance mechanism. Multi-stakeholder support will be required if any of these mechanisms are to succeed. Presently, banks and other lending institutions are very reluctant to finance not only adaptation, but also mitigation, except for large projects where carbon credits and other factors ensure the viability of the financial arrangements. The investment environment is not yet conducive for win-win partnerships due to limited awareness, low technical and institutional capacity, and financial constraints, including the small scale of most CDM projects in small island countries such as PNG. Financing difficulties can often be best addressed through the promotion of institutions and mechanisms that can provide innovative financing, including micro-financing, green finance, secured loans, leasing arrangements, and public–private partnerships. Under such arrangements, adaptation and mitigation can thrive, without direct government intervention. The recent implementation of performance-based budgeting in PNG has yet to deliver the full range of benefits in terms of public sector management and service delivery. For example, performance-based budgeting should result in substantial improvements in addressing climate change through both mitigation and increased climate resilience. This would include incorporating emissions reduction and climate resilience targets in all sector plans and in the

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management plans of line and other ministries. Such developments would in themselves represent a major step towards mainstreaming climate change considerations and would do much to enhance the response to climate change within government operations. The PNG government may wish to respond to the fact that proactive, no-regret responses to climate change are a profitable investment rather than an unproductive cost. This might involve redefining the core functions and the targets of agencies that have demonstrated, through performance-based budgeting, an ability to meet their performance targets. As shown in Figure 17, this could be followed by allocating increased portions of government revenues to these better performing agencies.

Figure 17. Key features of the economic and development planning cycle. 10. Research, Development and Uptake, including Technologies

The challenges and opportunities presented by climate change are continually evolving. As a result, ongoing efforts are required to ensure that reviews of, and decisions related to, revisions and implementation of policies and plans are always well-informed. Mechanisms must be in place to ensure the effective flow and application of targeted, user-friendly and policy relevant information and advice, both from the international community to stakeholders in PNG, as well as between stakeholders and key players at all levels within the country. As shown in Tables 4 through 6 as well as 8 and 9, development, transfer and uptake of appropriate technologies form an essential dimension of the response to climate change. If the transfer of inadequate, unsustainable, or unsafe technologies is to be avoided, technology recipients must be able to identify and select technologies that are appropriate to their actual needs, circumstances and capacities. There are many barriers to successful technology transfer. All along the transfer path, from the supply side of technology transfer (the innovators and developers) to the demand side (the recipients and users), impediments occur at every node, and, due to restrictions on the movement of information and materials, for every linkage in the technology transfer chain. Examples of challenges include shortfalls in technology creation

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and innovation, underperformance in technology sourcing, sub-optimal enabling environments, and insufficient and unverified information. Small and medium enterprises are disproportionately impacted by these challenges. 11. Capacity Development, including Awareness Raising, Education and Training

Priorities identified in Tables 4 through 6, as well as in Tables 8 and 9, reflect the fact that the need for increasingly effective responses to climate change is placing growing demands on existing capacities, especially those related to human resources. Climate change also brings requirements for new knowledge and skills, as well as motivation to take the required actions. Well-developed knowledge, skills and motivation are thus critical to successful responses to climate change. Information, knowledge and understanding support the development of behaviours that, in combination with practical skills and a strong enabling environment, result in committed action to implement climate-friendly decisions. At the individual level, and also, at higher community, business and organizational levels, the process of monitoring and evaluation reveals the appropriateness of either continuing with the existing mitigation and/or adaptation activities, or using additional knowledge and skills to undertake more appropriate actions. Numerous players act, formally or informally, as information providers and skill developers. One challenge is to ensure the results of their endeavours are sustained.

12. Performance Monitoring, Evaluation, and Reporting

Monitoring and evaluation are also integral parts of any policy response to climate change. They are keys to being able to assess the success of responses to climate change, relative to national, sectoral goals, and other objectives. This provides an opportunity to upscale and replicate the successful interventions and to modify or halt those activities where achievements are inadequate. In this way, both adaptation and mitigation strategies will themselves adapt–to such developments as new information and understanding, to successes and failures in past efforts, and to the availability of new technologies, or re-adoption of traditional technologies. A cycle of continuing improvement in the effectiveness of mitigation and adaptation interventions will be established, for the betterment of both at risk communities and the national economy at large.

Possible performance targets and indicators with which to assess the effectiveness of PNG’s national climate policy are presented in Table 4. Similar and consistent targets should be developed for sectors and other policies. The draft National Climate Change Policy Framework for PNG proposes the following key results areas, as well as associated performance indicators:

� Establishing overall permanent capacity � Establishing operational capacity of the designated national authority � Strengthening communication and dissemination of information on climate change and

carbon trading � Developing national REDD strategy for carbon emissions mitigation � Establishing national carbon assessment and monitoring system � Developing and strengthening climate change adaptation measures � Developing and strengthening use of clean technology and industrial practices � Securing and consolidating finance for mitigation and adaptation � Preparing and consolidating PNG’s position in the post-2012 UNFCCC REDD

negotiations

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� Preparing and consolidating PNG’s position in international carbon trade negotiations � Development of a benefit distribution regime for carbon trading � Developing designated projects for carbon trading � Marketing and promoting PNG’s carbon stocks � Establishing and strengthening financial management � Establishing and strengthening human resource management � Establishing information technology systems support

These could be assessed and possibly revised in light of the analyses and suggestions presented above.

13. Road Map for Implementation This section provides guidance on how to move beyond the framework to preparation of a national climate change strategy and action plan. Emphasis is on activities, roles and responsibilities, rather than on a timetable. The latter is the responsibility of government. Thus, the proposal is that the government circulate the framework, both internally and to external stakeholders, and conduct consultations. Subsequently, government could prepare a draft National Climate Change Policy and Strategy, including an Action Plan. After further consultations and revisions this could be submitted to NEC, along with the proposed climate change legislation. NEC could be asked to endorse and follow up on both these submissions.

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References Air Worldwide Corporation, World Bank and SOPAC, 2008. Pacific Catastrophic Risk Financing

Initiative, Country Risk Profile, Papua New Guinea. Air Worldwide Corporation, Boston, USA: 6.

APEC, 2006: Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 2006. Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre,

Japan: 4. Bureau of Meteorology, 2008: Pacific Country Report, Sea Level and Climate: Their Present

State. Papua New Guinea, December 2008: 32. CSIRO and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, 2007: Climate Change in Australia, Technical

Report. NIWA, 2008: Kiribati Adaptation Programme. Phase II: High Intensity Rainfall and Drought.

NIWA Client Report: WLG2008–12, NIWA Project GOK 08201. OCCES, 2009: Draft National Climate Change Policy Framework for PNG, PNG Office of

Climate Change and Environmental Sustainability (OCCES): 41. OCCES and World Bank, 2009: Climate Change in Papua New Guinea: A National Stocktake,

PNG Office of Climate Change and Environmental Sustainability (OCCCES) and the World Bank: 82.

PNG, 2000: Papua New Guinea Initial National Communication: 83. PNG, 2010: Climate-compatible Development for Papua New Guinea. Department of

Environment and Conservation, PNG: 50. World Bank, 2010: Reducing the Risk ofDisasters and Climate Variabilityin the Pacific Islands:

Papua New Guinea Country Assessment. World Bank, Washington, DC: 36.

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Annex 1

Elaboration of Policy and Institutional Contexts

This Annex provides a description and analysis of the broader policy contexts within which PNG’s responses to climate change will operate. At the international level, these include the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Kyoto Protocol’s flexible mechanisms, and an emerging mechanism for reducing emissions from deforestation in developing countries. National policy, planning, and budgetary frameworks also provide another important context. Related, high-level institutional frameworks are also described. a) International Policy Context PNG signed the UNFCCC at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in 1992. The UNFCCC was ratified by the government of PNG in April, 1993. The convention is aimed at stabilizing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The signing and ratification of the UNFCCC are testimony of the government’s strong commitment to fulfilling the nation’s obligations to the international community. It also signifies the immediate and far-reaching concerns PNG has about the issues pertaining to the likely impacts of climate change, including sea-level rise. As a non-Annex 1 Party to the UNFCCC, PNG’s only obligation is to report on its GHG emissions and provide information on the steps taken or envisaged to implement the convention, as well as the financial support needed in order to meet the agreed full costs of complying with its obligations. The UNFCCC sets no mandatory limits on GHG emissions for individual nations and contains no enforcement provisions. However, it does include provisions for subsequent agreements that would set mandatory emission limits. The principal update to the UNFCCC is the Kyoto Protocol, which PNG ratified in March, 2002. The Kyoto Protocol entered into force in February, 2005. It establishes legally binding commitments for the reduction of GHGs produced by Annex I (industrialized) nations, as well as general commitments for all Parties. In effect it provides for a “cap and trade” system which imposes national caps on the emissions of Annex I countries. On average, this cap requires countries to reduce their emissions to 5.2% below their 1990 baseline over the 2008 to 2012 period. The Protocol includes "flexible mechanisms" such as Emissions Trading, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation to allow Annex 1 countries to meet their GHG emission limitations by purchasing GHG “emission reductions credits” generated by projects that reduce emissions in non-Annex 1 (developing) countries or from Annex 1 countries with excess allowances. In practice, the Kyoto agreement means that non-Annex 1 countries, such as PNG, have no GHG emission restrictions, but have financial incentives to develop GHG emission reduction projects to receive "carbon credits" that can then be sold to Annex I buyers, thereby encouraging sustainable development. In addition, the flexible mechanisms allow Annex 1 nations with efficient, low GHG-emitting industries and high prevailing environmental standards, to purchase carbon credits on the world market instead of reducing GHG emissions domestically. Annex 1 entities typically will want to acquire carbon credits as cheaply as possible, while non-Annex 1 entities want to maximize the value of carbon credits generated from their domestic GHG projects. Arguably, the international climate-related initiative of greatest relevance to PNG is the proposed UNFCCC mechanism for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest

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degradation (REDD). In 2005, at the eleventh Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UNFCCC, PNG and Costa Rica proposed a mechanism that would mean that developing countries willing and able to reduce emissions from deforestation would be financially compensated. REDD provides a new framework to allow deforesting countries to break the historical trend where previous approaches have been unsuccessful. In order for REDD’s inclusion in a post-2012 framework, a decision on the nature of a REDD mechanism needs to be agreed at the COP to be held in December, 2009. Several challenges to REDD implementation require resolution if there is to be a REDD mechanism, whether fund or market-based, that is able to deliver environmentally-effective and economically-efficient emission reductions. The key challenges include: monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) for national inventory purposes; capacity building and ensuring enabling policy environments, including land tenure; and minimizing perverse incentives. b) National Policy, Planning and Budgetary Contexts The Medium Term Development Strategy (MTDS) is the PNG government’s overarching plan for social and economic development. It has widespread internal and external support, following an extensive programme of consultation conducted throughout the country and with PNG’s development partners. These took place amidst widespread concern over PNG’s deteriorating economic and social development performance during the 1990s and the earlier part of the present decade. The MTDS is based on PNG’s Programme for Recovery and Development, which has three objectives: (i) good governance; (ii) export-driven economic growth; and (iii) rural development, poverty reduction and empowerment through human resources development. The MTDS identifies seven core sectoral expenditure priorities: (i) transport infrastructure maintenance; (ii) promotion of income-earning opportunities; (iii) basic education; (iv) adult learning; (v) primary health care; (vi) HIV/AIDS prevention and; (vii) law and justice. These underpin six development targets, namely: (i) eradicating extreme poverty and hunger; (ii) achieving universal primary education; (iii) promoting gender equality and empowering women; (iv) reducing child mortality and improving maternal health; (v) combating HIV AIDS, malaria, and other diseases; (vi) ensuring environmental sustainability; and (vii) promoting global partnerships. As a framework to guide the allocation of resources in both the development and recurrent budgets, the MTDS and the Medium Term Financial Strategy play an important role to support fiscal governance and the objectives of the Strategic Plan for Public Sector Reform. The MTDS recognizes the central responsibility of government to provide a number of core functions necessary to improve basic living standards and ensure social cohesion, including law and justice, primary health care, basic education, and infrastructure. Capacity building and support for the delivery of these functions is a priority of the MTDS. It also outlines key supporting policies and measures to create an enabling environment for development, focusing on political and policy stability, the rule of law, the business environment, protecting the vulnerable and disadvantaged, gender equality, and protecting the natural environment. A number of crosscutting governance strategies and programmes are highlighted as being essential to effective MTDS implementation. The MTDS includes sound expenditure priorities and an ambitious but appropriate governance agenda. A medium-term fiscal strategy and medium-term debt strategy outline the government’s approach to funding the MTDS. The public expenditure review and rationalization process is seen as a vehicle for generating the savings and cost-efficiencies necessary for successfully implementing the MTDS. However, the MTDS is essentially a policy document, without strong links to sector or thematic implementation plans or concrete targets or indicators. MTDS

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implementation is proving to be challenging, requiring concentrated effort. Some progress has been made by the government to redirect expenditures toward priority areas. Three key implementation measures being undertaken by government, with support from development partners, are: (i) implementing a whole-of-government-performance-management framework that is owned by the PNG government and that donors can support and adopt; (ii) developing clear sector and thematic operational plans linked to medium-term expenditure frameworks; and (iii) further strengthening government–development partner coordination toward effective MTDS implementation. The Department of National Planning and Monitoring is making progress with identifying development indicators for the MTDS, while the Department of Prime Minister and the National Economic Council (NEC) are moving ahead on institutional performance and reform. Currently, plans and budgets are formulated at the business unit level and promoted through the budget process by their respective departments. For cross-sector activities, individual departments are expected to budget for their separate components. There is little experience of cross-sector budget initiatives. In the future, promotion of cross-sector budget initiatives by departments and ministers will be important if funding allocations for such cross-cutting initiatives as disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation are to be reflected in the national budget stream. Agriculture is the predominant occupation in PNG, with 82% of the population engaged in agriculture, including animal and fishery work. It is the source of sustenance, food security, and income generation for most households. The agricultural sector is an important contributor to PNG’s economy. In export terms, agriculture contributes on the average K1,200 million to PNG’s economy, while food production for subsistence, food security, and income generation is estimated at K5,000 million. The agricultural population is being, and will be, most affected by climate change. It can also contribute to reducing the effects of climate change in PNG, if it is well-informed and meaningfully engaged in responses to climate change. The agriculture sector is already feeling the impacts of climate change. Sector agencies have combated or contained some of these impacts through adaptive measures. These include taking initiatives to contain and limit the effects of crop and plant diseases and insects such as potato blight, taro beetle, cocoa pod borer, coffee berry borer, New Castle disease of poultry, and fruit flies. Specific activities include breeding for pest and disease resistance and tolerant crops, including drought tolerant crops. Agronomic practices are being targeted for high yields and post harvest technologies for quality and long-term storage are being promoted along with new varieties and crops such as rice, African yam, and potato. The overall goal of the NADP is to stimulate economic growth in the agriculture sector in all districts, through well-coordinated planning and implementation that promotes food security, income generation, and poverty alleviation. The NADP objectives are to do the following:

� Reduce costs of production and improve the quality of agricultural produce for both

domestic and international markets � Increase income earning opportunities for those dependent on agriculture � Allocate resources based on priority areas � Ensure that development is socially, economically, and environmentally sustainable � Improve the recognition of women’s contributions to rural industries and increase

opportunities for women’s decision making in agriculture The NADP has six components, namely: (i) agricultural research, extension, information and training; (ii) food and horticultural crops development; (iii) tree and industrial crops development;

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(iv) livestock, apiculture and aquaculture development; (v) spice and minor crops development; (vi) gender, social and HIV/AIDS related issues; and (vii) regulatory and technical services. Many of these components are relevant to adaptation and/or mitigation. The National Food Security Policy is now a component of the NADP. Its goal is to ensure that all people of PNG at all times have access to safe and nutritious food in adequate quality and quantity to maintain a healthy and active life. The goal is to be achieved from food production and/or income generation from food as well as from non–food crop sectors, and it is to be pursued through intensification of food production systems, diversification of production systems–crops, livestock, fruits and aquaculture systems; introduction of small irrigation systems; and analysis and resolution of constraints to food security. Current Department of Health policies, plans, manpower, standards, guidelines and resource allocations in the National Health Plan 2001-2010 are focused on addressing present day health issues. These include the following:

� Cultural and traditional practices–e.g., diarrhoea, typhoid � Modernization and urbanization–e.g., diabetes � Industrialization and development–e.g., injuries

Climate change is now recognised as an additional issue for the health sector. The electric industry in PNG has not operated with an appropriate policy framework to guide its development for some considerable time. The provision and availability of electricity throughout PNG is unreliable and inadequate to meet demand. The issues of access, reliability, and affordability of electricity supplies are long standing for the bulk of the population living in rural areas, as well as for many urban dwellers. Access to electricity services in PNG is very low and essentially limited to major load centres only. These are mostly urban areas. In contrast, 90% of PNG’s population live in the rural areas. This portion of the population has very limited access to electricity. Despite a series of policy initiatives, rural electrification remains ad hoc and dispersed generation facilities perform very poorly. Access is further constrained by the once long-standing power regulation that mandated only PNG Power Limited to sell electricity commercially. The recently approved Electricity Industry Policy is designed to address three strategic objectives of government, namely: (i) improving access in the provision of electricity services; (ii) improving reliability of electricity supply; and (iii) ensuring that power is affordable for consumers. The government’s intention through this policy is to increase the share of the population having access to electricity up to 70% by the year 2050. This policy objective is tied strongly to the level of general infrastructure development–roads and bridges, schools, aid posts and health centres and business investments. Therefore, the policy will be implemented in accordance with the broader developmental policies of government. The policy also sets a minimum reliability benchmark at 98.5% for electricity supplies in PNG. The benchmark represents PNG Power Limited’s normal performance for reliability across the system before the level of reliability fell in recent times. In addition, the policy aims to address the problems of inefficiency and high costs of service provision to make electricity supplies affordable for all citizens and consumers of electricity in PNG. REDD is a component of the government’s ESEG initiative which aims to identify development options that are environmentally and ecologically sustainable, and could provide long term

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income generation opportunities for landowners and revenue streams for government. Relevant strategies include: (i) Department of Environment and Conservation (DEC) New Strategic Direction 2007; (ii) DEC Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation Programme Framework 2008; (iii) PNG National Biodiversity: Strategy and Action Plan 2007; (iv) Protected Areas Initiative 2006; (v) National Forest Development Guidelines 2008; and (vi) PNG Forest Authority Forestry and Climate Change Framework for Action 2008-2015. The fourth goal of the PNG Constitution provides the cornerstone for forest policies. It ensures that “the forest resources of the country are used and replenished for the collective benefit of all Papua New Guineans now and for future generations.” The main objectives of the forestry policy are: (i) management and protection of the nation’s forest resources as a renewable natural asset; and (ii) utilization of the nation’s forest resources to achieve economic growth, employment creation, greater Papua New Guinean participation in industry and increased viable onshore processing. There are three supporting objectives, namely: (i) the collection of information and advancement of knowledge relating to the utilization and maintenance of PNG’s forest resources through forest research; (ii) increased acquisition and dissemination of skills, knowledge and information in forestry through education and training; and (iii) effective strategies, including administrative and legal machinery, to manage the forest resource, and incorporating national, provincial and local interests. DEC’s REDD Programme Framework covers five key work steams for development of an effective enabling environment for the REDD initiative, namely: (i) carbon assessment and monitoring; (ii) policy, legal and planning; (ii) communication, education and awareness; (iv) capacity development; and (v) national and sub-national demonstration activities. These general work streams are being developed into many sub-activities, each with budgets, milestones and timeframes. A national programme monitoring and evaluation framework is being put in place to assess all aspects of the REDD programme and provide lessons learned to improve implementation as the programme moves forward. The DEC New Strategic Direction 2007 provides a Management Arrangements and Strategy Development Framework for the MDG7 and REDD Policy. Since other government agencies need to participate in the development of the REDD strategies, interdepartmental coordination will be provided by the Office of Climate Change and Environmental Sustainability (OCCES). This is especially important in relation to integration of strategies designed to address the concerns of land users and resource owners. The National Tuna Fishery Management Plan guides the PNG fishery. It establishes an overall management structure and an application framework for the long line, purse-seine and pole and line fisheries, including license limits and total allowable catches. PNG has embarked on onshore investments in the tuna fishery. As a result, foreign and domestic access by purse-seine vessels is increasingly linked to commitment to onshore investment, notably in the form of tuna processing.

Water issues relate generally to drinking water supply and environmental maintenance, as there is no systematic irrigation and no current plans for new hydropower investment. Water supply has received considerable attention in terms of review, policy development, and law, but water resources management in general is badly neglected, despite the efforts of the Bureau of Water Resources. Water resources management in the broad sense receives limited resources and attention, as do management of flood hazards, catchment areas, forests, and wetlands. Water quality degradation is severe in places. Water supply projects are attempting to reverse these trends, but regulations with regard to wastewater treatment and effluent discharges are not

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effectively administered or enforced. Management practices are better in other areas, including handling the environmental and social effects of projects and allocation of water to consumptive use.

Water services are restricted to urban water supply, a work in progress. Major providers generally are autonomous and accountable, with private sector or commercially based state enterprises in several towns. Service coverage and quality are low, but are improving due to significant investment projects. Tariff structures are set to cover costs rather than manage demand; there is considerable cross-subsidization, and only partial cost-recovery. Marginal profitability means that facilities may deteriorate without externally funded investment; in many places, though, there are no subsidies, no revenues, and no service. General levels of education are low, so that there is little understanding about water issues, including the need for conservation. Regulation of wastewater discharge is provided for, but seldom implemented. As a result, water quality is adversely affected. The Department of Transport is the lead agency in the transport sector. It prepared the National Transport Development Plan 2006-2010 and stated its vision: to strive for excellence by working in partnership with the community to facilitate a well integrated and sustainable transport system for PNG–as well as its mission–to administer and facilitate the formulation of relevant policies and legislations to achieve safe, social, economic, and environmentally sustainable transport outcomes for PNG. The department also prepared an Investment Plan for the same period. The core functions of the department are to provide transport policies across all three modes, coordinate and monitor implementation, and administer relevant legislation. The Department of Works and sector agencies implement the transport policies. Specific challenges in PNG include the growth in freight and passenger traffic; demand for transport services; cost of transport infrastructure, some of which is influenced by climate and weather related; degradation through road land use; and regulation to guard against transport pollution. The vision of the Department of Works is to provide and maintain a priority road network that will contribute to a holistic quality of life that can be embraced and enjoyed by the people of PNG with access to opportunities available in a modern global village. Its mission is to provide and maintain an adequate and safe road network in an accountable, transparent and environmentally sustainable manner, in consultation with stakeholders to facilitate national development, and embrace the standard of living as embodied in the PNG Constitution. The Civil Aviation Authority is a State-owned entity enacted under the Civil Aviation Act 2000. It operates as a business in civil aviation and provides a service as a contribution to the economic and social development of PNG, and in particular: (i) to promote and regulate civil aviation safety; (ii) to enhance safety, security, efficiency and service quality in the civil aviation system in a sustainable manner; (iii) to facilitate access to the air transport network; and (iv) to contribute to the safe, smooth flow of passengers, aircraft and cargo within the civil aviation system. The Authority plans to establish a section that will address climate change issues more effectively and develop clear policy guidelines on aviation in PNG. This would include monitoring and reporting, to ensure that there was full information collected on a consistent basis, including about fuel consumption and passenger and cargo miles flown. There is a need for a transparent system so that stakeholders have confidence that they are operating in an equivalent environment with their competitors. A concerted effort is needed to examine the GHG emissions issues in the aviation industry and to develop this work in the context of a global strategy.

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In 2005, the NDMC launched a National Disaster Mitigation Policy. This policy is based on the “One Step Ahead” approach, promoting proactive planning and implementation of mitigation in disaster and risk management. It establishes a nationwide response network and implementation strategy. However, the Plan lacks a communication component, including disseminating information to the general public. Information is not readily available for NDMC to use in informing the public on types of disasters and when they are expected. c) Relevant Institutional Frameworks The role of the Department of National Planning and Monitoring is to assist government to articulate, implement, and realize its development objectives, through various development processes and systems. It endeavours to add real value through strategic planning to ensure sustainable development of PNG into the future. The organizational structure of the Department is shown in Figure A1. Recently, the position of Programme Officer for Climate Change was established within the Social and Administration Division.

Figure A1. Organizational structure of the Department of National Planning and Monitoring.

DEC was established in 1985 and vested with the powers to protect the environmental values of air, water, soil, and biodiversity and the sustainable use of the natural resources as mandated by the Fourth Goal of the National Constitution. Thus, DEC’s mission is to ensure PNG’s natural resources management sustains environmental quality; human well-being; and supports improved standards of living. DEC is responsible for management and protection of the country's water resources, pollution control, and water related laws and regulations, and their enforcement. Its hydrological survey branch is responsible for monitoring surface water and

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rainfall stations. DEC’s activities are severely constrained by a lack of funds. Figure A2 presents DEC’s organizational chart.

The Energy Division of the Department of Petroleum and Energy is responsible for energy policies and plans, data collection, and analysis, and advice to the government on energy sector issues, including oil and natural gas exploration and development. A 36,000-barrel per day refinery began producing fuel for the local market in 2004, with some exports planned to neighbouring countries. In practice, the division concentrates on electric power, although PNG Power Limited, the national electricity utility, undertakes most power sector planning. Extremely limited resources have seriously hampered data collection and analysis. Data collection for RE all but ceased in the mid 1980s. The division is also responsible for the rural electrification programme. The provincial governments have responsibility for maintaining the government’s stand-alone rural generation facilities (C-Centres), although most of these centres have fallen into poor condition and disuse since their inception.

Figure A2. Organizational chart of the Department of Environment and Conservation.

The mandate of the PNG Forest Authority is to manage PNG’s forest resources, undertake acquisition of forest resources for development, to distribute benefits through royalties and levies with 95% going to landowners, and the replenishment of the forest resource through plantation establishment, enrichment planting and assisted natural regeneration. The following institutions are responsible for forest monitoring and forest inventories: (i) the PNG National Forest Authority; (ii) the Forestry Research Institute; (iii) the University of PNG, through the University’s Remote Sensing Centre; and (iv) DEC. In the area of forest law enforcement, the PNG Forest Authority is responsible for implementing the Forestry Act. This act enabled preparation of the National Forest Development Guidelines. These give strong guidance to the National Forest Plan that underpins all forest-based activities. The Forest Authority and DEC are responsible for forestry and forest conservation, including creation of forest reserves under

53

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the Forest Act, wildlife management areas, National Parks, reserves, sanctuaries under the National Parks Act, the Fauna (Protection and Control) Act, and the Conservation Areas Act.

PNG is rich in natural resources, including water. However, due to a lack of both human resources and political interest, and also to underlying financial constraints, it has not been able to achieve sustainable development in the water sector. The water sector in PNG is fragmented and poorly coordinated. The Water Resources Act (1982) regulates the use of water. Water supply is administered by the Water Board, which has legal authority for cross-sector activity. It is a statutory organization responsible for water supply and sewerage in 11 towns throughout the country, though not the capital city. Since 1987, development and management of rural water supplies and sanitation have been delegated to the Department of Health. The Geological Survey of the Department of Mineral Resources is responsible for providing advice on groundwater exploration, assessment, management, and protection of resources.

The organizational structure for disaster management is shown in Figure A3. The National Disaster Committee is tasked to: (i) supervise the national state of preparedness for emergencies and to report on it to the NEC; (ii) maintain the National Emergency Plan of the NEC; (iii) assign responsibilities for disaster-related activities to departments and other bodies; (iv) coordinate departmental relief actions and collate national relief requirements; (v) advise the NEC if an appeal for international assistance is required; (vi) lay down guidelines for the preparation and format of provincial disaster plans; (vii) examine and where necessary approve all grants from national funds for emergency relief; (viii) raise public awareness at the effects of natural phenomena and measures which can be taken to prevent them; (ix) supervise the establishment of stock-piles of relief supplies; and (x) in the case of a disaster, to advise the NEC of all the circumstances and on the advisability of declaring a National Emergency under the Constitution. The roles of the National Disaster Management Centre are defined by the Disaster Management Act 1984 (amended in 1987). The centre acts as a Secretariat to the National Disaster Committee and undertakes all actions requested by the Committee. This includes coordinating stakeholders for all natural-caused disaster/emergency related matters, including assessments and relief supplies. It also collaborates with technical agencies to undertake studies and assessments related to hazard mapping, vulnerability assessment, and risk analysis, mitigation, and adaptation measures. Its functions related to funding, implementation, policy formulation, community-based disaster risk management interventions, and regional disaster risk management interventions.

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Figure A3. Organizational structure for disaster management.

The coordination function for disaster risk reduction is the responsibility of the Disaster Management Centre, as part of its weekly mandated disaster risk management function. The National Disaster Committee champions it, and the National Disaster Committee is required to approve and report on the centre’s annual work plan. Since the functions of both the Committee and the centre have become marginalised in recent times, there is little coordination or promotion of this function across government agencies.