NEW ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

Risks or Challenges?

Ana PalacioXXXI Reunión del Círculo de Economía

Sitges, 29 de mayo de 2015

New Relevant Actors: MNCs, NGOs, terrorism “New rules or a world without rules”: Russia,

ISIS The rise of informality and the erosion of

rules & institutions: G´s, IFIs Withdrawal of the United States from the

world scene & rise of regional champions What about the EU?

Global Challenges in 2015: The Breakdown of Global

Order?

EU Internal (1/3)

Political Nostalgia: a recurrent multifaceted phenomenon Cohesiveness: national perception of the EU usefulness and

the risk of unravelling – Brexit and Grexit Ambition – both lack and excess

Economic Sustainbility – the need for a new model for growth? Competitiveness: 50-25-7

Legal “An ever closer Union”: Energy Union and Single Digital

Market

EU Internal (2/3)

Digital AgendaTargets:

Better access to consumers and businesses to online goods and services across Europe

Creating the right conditions for digital networks and services to flourish

Maximising the growth potential for our European Digital Economy

What needs to be done? Harmonisation and adaptation of rules on personal data protection,

copyright, online purchasing, EU-VAT, digital innovation, investment and fair competition

Build trust, encourage PMEs and start-ups, affordable parcel delivery, prevent unjustified geo-blocking, cross-border access to digital contents

EU Internal (3/3)

Energy Union

Energy security, solidarity and trust

A fully integrated European energy market

Energy efficiency contributing to moderation of demand

Decarbonising the economyResearch, Innovation and Competitiveness

EU Transatlantic

Atlantic Basin: Economic Potential Bridge to Latin America Untapped Potential in Africa

TTIP Reinforcing Rules-Based Approach Maintaining a European Voice

NATO Filling the Credibility Gap

EU Neighbourhood

The failure of neighbourhood policy: The Mediterranean

Enclaved Economies Demographics/Governance Legal Assistance

The Eastern Partnership Crumbling Economies Repressive Regimes Hollow rule of law

From Risks to Challenges?

As Europeans, our challenge summarizes in taking ownership of the

EU project and making the voice of the EU contribute

to the emerging World Order

US Infrastructure Development

Highlighted Pipeline Reversals and Expansions Accommodating Increased

Domestic and Canadian Supply

“The United States is now the world’s largest producer of petroleum and natural gas. Combined with new clean energy technologies, and improved fuel efficiency, and growth in oil and natural gas production, U.S. energy security is stronger than it has been for over half a century.”

The Quadrennial Energy Review, April 2015

The Growing GDP Gap

Productivity Gap

Africa´s Electricity Gap

The Insidious Challenge of Subsidies

Climate Challenge

Continuing Role of Coal

Impact of Falling Oil Prices & Shift in Production Models

Source: Eiichi Hasegawa

Economic Growth and Economic Outlook

Projections

Global Oil & Gas Reserves in Proximity of EU

The EU is located close to nearly 70% of the world’s oil & gas reserves.