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Institute for Global Environmental Strategies
Asian LDCs and Climate: Case for the Early Action
Koji Fukuda Policy Researcher, Climate Change Group
Day1: Enabling Low Carbon and Climate Resilient Development for Myanmar Second Myanmar Green Economy, Green Growth Forum
13 November 2012, Nay Pyi Taw
1. Objective • “Opportunities to leapfrog ahead of its ASEAN neighbors”
indeed exist, but how to best seize such opportunities remains a key policy question
• Strategic thinking required for 1)how to frame climate change agenda in light of national development plan/vision, and 2) how to attract/utilize international support to address domestic challenges for low-carbon climate resilient development
• Aim: to revisit and identify;
2
How other LDCs in the region recognize and tackle climate change agenda domestically
How other LDCs utilize international resources to implement climate policy and measures
How other LDCs attempt to address challenges that they face domestically
To supplement strategic thinking for constructing national approach to seize leapfrogging opportunities for Myanmar
2. Background: Country Focus
3
Bhutan
Bangladesh
Laos
Cambodia
Per capita GNI: $1,870 Population: 7 million
Per capita GNI: $700 Population: 149 million
Per capita GNI: $1,050 Population: 6 million
Per capita GNI: $750 Population: 14 million
Source: 2012 World Development Indicators
2. Background: Emission Profiles
4
Myanmar
GHG sources & sinks
CO2 CH4 N2O
Energy 15,178.25 0.63 0.06 Industrial Processes
1,281.48 - -
Agriculture - 1,127.73 14.32 LULUCF 7,837.97 - - Others (Waste)
- 62.49 -
Total Emission 24,297.63 1,190.85 14.38
Source/Sink CO2 removal (Gg)
CO2e total emission
CO2e net emission
Share (%)
Energy 0 7863.47 7863.47 10.6 Industrial 0 463.29 463.29 0.6 Agriculture incl. livestock
0 22,843.25 22,843.25 30.7
LUCF -142,221.20 40,404.73 -101,816.50 54.3 Waste 0 2825.97 2,825.97 3.8 Total -142,221.40 74,400.71 -67,820.50 100.0
Bangladesh YR1994 (INC 2002)
Bhutan YR2000 (SNC 2011) Laos YR1990 (INC 2000)
GHG sources & sinks
Total CO2 eq CO2 CH4 N2O
Energy 928.80 414.90 22.70 0.12 Industrial Processes
- - - -
Agriculture 5,696.67 0 271.27 0 LULUCF -104303.8 16,628.67 29.50 0.20 Waste 240.03 0 11.43 0 Total Emission
-97438.3 17,043.57 334.90 0.32
GHG sources & sinks
Total CO2 eq CO2 CH4 N2O
Energy 1,881.35 1,272.08 24.13 0.33 Industrial Processes
49.85 49.85 0 0
Agriculture 10,560.15 - 339.25 11.08 LULUCF -17,906.54 -19,635.96 74.77 0.51 Others (Waste)
273.39 - 6.77 0.42
Total Emission
-5,141.79 -18,314.03 444.92 12.35
GHGsources & sinks
Total CO2 eq CO2 CH4 N2O
Energy 270.23 260.31 0.38 0.01 Industrial Processes
237.76 237.76 0 0
Agriculture 1005.30 0 25.85 1.49 LUCF -6,309.6 -6,309.6 0 0 Waste 46.27 O 2 0.01 Total Emission
-4,750.04
-5,810.9 28.23 1.51
Cambodia YR1994 (INC 2002) Khin Lay Swe (2012)
3.How LDCs Recognizes & Tackles Climate Change Domestically
Framing climate change measures in terms of security issues Benchmark and target setting for 5yr plan Participatory approach for formulating strategy (integrating voices of
ministries/agencies, CSOs, research institutions) 5
Adaptation & DRR as national priority Setting climate change actions in terms of ensuring 4 types of
security (food, water, energy, livelihood) Climate change benchmark & targets for pre-identified programs Indicative investment volume for “environment, climate change
and disaster management” cluster
6th Five-year plan (SFYP, 2011-2015)
Bangladesh: Climate Change Mainstreaming and Setting PAMs
Emphasizing mainstreaming adaptation across various sectors
1) Food security, social protection, health 2) Capacity building, institutional strengthening 3) Comprehensive disaster management 4) Infrastructure 5) Research and Knowledge management 6) Mitigation and low carbon development
National Plan for Disaster Management (2010-2015) Other Thematic Plans
Bangladesh PRSP-2
Bangladesh Climate Change
Strategy & Action Plan
(BCCSAP, 2009)
Learning Points
3. How LDCs Utilizes International Support
6
Bangladesh: International Support
To finance BCCSAP activities implemented by line agencies Donor support (UK, Sweden, Denmark,
EU) with the WB serving as Trustee(5yr) Governing council (17 members) chaired
by the Ministry of Environment/Forestry 10% of resources channeled for
CSO/NGO $125 million pooled, 3 proposal selected - $25m for cyclone shelters (LGED) - $25m for climate resilient crops (DAE) - $25m for coastal hilly afforestation (MoEF)
Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy & Action Plan (BCCSAP, 2009)
Bangladesh Climate Change Resilient Fund (BCCRF)
NAPAs, NCSA, TNA Bilateral, multilateral e.g. CIF/Pilot Program for Climate Resilience ($110 million), GEF/SCCF, GEF/LDCF, UNDP-UNEP PEI, GCCA, UN-REDD(Partner country) CDMs Regional knowledge platforms
Securing resources through “funds” (pooling financial resources) Enabling strategy/AP by linking with finance Stakeholder engagement for BCCSAP implementation (CSO/NGO)
Learning Points
Emergency relief, other works
National budget $300 million, 66% allocation to BCCSAP,
34% to emergency relief, other works 62 gov projects, 53 NGO projects Selection of fund recipients by Trust
Committee, monitoring by CCU/MoEF
66% 34% Climate Change Trust Fund
Other International Support Tools/Initiatives/Mechanisms
4.How LDCs Recognizes & Tackles Climate Change Domestically
7
Environment Policy and Strategy - to ensure sustainable development in conservation of environment Recognizing country’s high vulnerability to climate change (glacial lake
outburst flood(GLOF), flash floods, landslides by rains) Indicative description & costs for climate adaptation activity:
assessment and monitoring of climate change induced and geological hazards
“Conservation of environment” included in the guiding philosophy
Bhutan: Climate Change Mainstreaming and Setting PAMs
Utilizing NAMAs as a means to set national mitigation goal/direction Framing forest cover target under the constitution Utilizing regional initiative to promote CC agenda (SAARC)
10th Five-year plan(2008-2013)
Gross National Happiness(GNH)
To remain carbon-neutral by 2020
Scenario projections for GHG emissions (2005-2040) Indicative short-term/mid-term interventions to achieve carbon
neutrality
NAMAs
National Strategy and Action Plan for Low
Carbon Development –final draft-(2012)
Other Highlights Constitutional mandate to maintain 60% of land under forest cover
at all times Disaster Risk Management Framework SAARC Action Plan on Climate Change
Learning Points
4. How LDCs Utilizes International Support
8
Bhutan: International Support
Support for Assessments/Action Plans e.g. NAPAs, TNA, INC/SNC, National Roadmap for the Climate Summit Mainstreaming support e.g. UNDP-UNEP Poverty-Environment Initiative(PEI): Integrating sustainability indicators into result areas /performance indicators for 11th National Plan (2013-2018) Other bilateral, multilateral support e.g. proposed GEF/LDCF(Water, early warning system, public awareness), GEF/SCCF(adaptation/health), hazard map development, GLOF-related supports, UN-REDD(Partner country), FCPF(Candidate country), CDM(microhydro power project) Knowledge Platform e.g. Asia-Pacific Adaptation Network(APAN), Regional Climate Change Adaptation Knowledge Platform for Asia (AKP)
International Support Tools/Initiatives/Mechanisms
Mainstreaming support Utilizing knowledge platform to extract practices/lessons
Learning Points
5.How LDCs Recognizes & Tackles Climate Change Domestically
9
Cambodia: Climate Change Mainstreaming and Setting PAMs
Reducing vulnerability & building resilience to adverse impacts Setting series of priority actions and sectoral priorities
1) forestry: reduce GHG emission by forest degradation: enhance management efficiency of reserved forests, appropriate protection development 2) urban/transport: Preparation for M/P and infrastructure development including commuter light train
Environmental sustainability Sectoral reforms (agriculture, fisheries, forestry )
Contributes to low carbon development, SD, poverty eradication Mitigation entails measures for energy & non-energy sectors
National Forestry Program(NFP2010-29) REDD+TaskForce, REDD+ Roadmap Renewable Energy Action Plan (REAP 2003~) Strategy for Agriculture and Water (2006-10) Green Growth Roadmap (Master Plan under development)
Rectangular Strategy II
National Developmental Strategies and Plans (NDSP
Update 2009-13)
Cambodian Climate Change
Strategic Plans (CCCSP)
Other Thematic Plans
Inclusion of urban/transport sector as part of priority area: possible early actions to avoid carbon lock-in risks
Utilizing “Green Growth” for improving access to LC energy (rural)
Learning Points
NAMAs Implementation of REDD+
5. How LDCs Utilizes International Support
10
Cambodia: International Support
To finance adaptation activities to be implemented by line ministries, agencies, CSOs, with technical support provided by donors as required
international donors (SIDA, DANIDA, EC, UNDP), administered by UNDP Program Support Board(PSB): Policy-level decision making within CCCA, 8 members (4
ministries, 4 donors) Multi-stakeholder Technical Advisory Panel(TAP): technical advisory support to CCCA &
PSB, 10-15 members (ministries, donors, academia, CSOs) $8.901 million pooled, 8 grants approved for Coastal Zone Projects (2011)
Climate Change Alliance Trust Fund (CCCA-TF)
Learning Points
Utilizing CCCA support scheme to build capacity for national decision-making body for climate change (NCCC)
Stakeholder engagement in implementation
NAPAs, NCSA, TNA Other multilateral, bilateral supports e.g. CIF/PPCR, GEF/SCCF(FSP, MSP), GEF/LDCF, FCPF, UN-REDD (National Program), , FCPF (Participant), UNDP-UNEP PEI CDMs (biomass, biogas, waste heat/ gas, hydro) Knowledge Platform (e.g. APAN, AKP)
Other International Support Tools/Initiatives/Mechanisms
6.How LDCs Recognizes & Tackles Climate Change Domestically
11
Laos: Climate Change Mainstreaming and Setting PAMs
Seventh National Socio-Economic Development Plan(NSEDP7,
2011-15)
Integrating climate change (adaptation, mitigation) Join others to arrest the process of global warming, climate
change, gas emissions…(sec 4.4)
National Strategy on Climate
Change(NSCC)
National Action Plan for Climate Change (NAPCC)
Identifying 7 priority sectors and actions for identified sectors Agriculture, LUCF, industries, energy, transport, urban Forestry cover target: to increase from 40.3%(2010) to 65%
(2015), 70% (2020)
Currently under finalization
Other Thematic Plans
Electrification target: 70% by 2010, 90% by 2020 (NGPES) Forestry Strategy 2020 (2005) but no ref. to CC Strategy for Agricultural development 2011-20 (2010) Renewable Energy Development Strategy (2011) REDD+ Task Force
Effort to develop action plans based on Identified priority sectors Target setting for forestry cover
Support for Assessments/Action Plans e.g. NAPAs, NSCA, TNA, INC Mainstreaming support e.g. GCCA: Mainstreaming CC in poverty reduction and development Other bilateral, multilateral support e.g. GEF/LDCF, GEF/SCCF(agriculture, disaster management), FCPF(Participant), CIF/Forestry Investment Program(FIP), CDMs (hydro, EE, biogas, cement, afforestation/reforestation), individual bilateral support (e.g. transportation NAMAs, M/P) Knowledge Platform e.g. Asia-Pacific Adaptation Network(APAN), Regional Climate Change Adaptation Knowledge Platform for Asia (AKP)
6.How LDCs Utilizes International Support
12
Laos: International Support
International Support Tools/Initiatives/Mechanisms
Mainstreaming support, support for NAMA formulation
Observed Common Trends and Challenges of LDCs
13
Common Trends • Many Asian LDCs remain net sink at moment, but facing increasing GHG
emissions (higher demand for energy services, urbanization, motorization, declining forest cover due to competing priorities/interests for land-use)
• Adaptation to adverse impacts of climate change and DRR remains to be national priority for LDCs
• Observed examples of early actions: transport M/P, light train (Cambodia), urban sector included in national CC strategy (Laos), constitutional mandate for forestry cover (Bhutan), CC-poverty linkage by PRSP2 (Bangladesh)
Capacity
Climate Change Mainstreaming
Financial Resources
Awareness
Limited technical, financial, institutional capacity
Government official, academia, general public
Resource Acquisition Prioritizing allocations Absorptive capacity
CC-developmental linkage Sectoral linkage Budgetary linkage
Long-term planning for targeted training, pooling domestic expertise
Legal framework on responsibilities of line ministries, F/P coordination skills, MoF/MoPlanming engagement
Understanding sources & means National consensus on allocation Fiscal autonomy vs dependency
Long-term planning for domestic sensitization activities Mutual learning opportunities
Ways Forward
14
Experiences of neighboring LDCs offer various learning points for Myanmar to leapfrog, particularly in terms of;
1) Framing CC in light of development plans/strategies; 2) Harnessing emerging concepts (e.g. NAMAs, GG) to shape/push domestic
actions forward and to attract international finance; 3) Ensuring inclusiveness throughout planning & implementation stage 4) Multiple ways to handle international support
Assessing transferability of observed good practices/lessons and
tailoring in Myanmar context for implementation as a next step
Pursuing low-carbon climate resilient development is a long-term goal/vision, which requires step-wise planning/strategy for how to get there
Readiness & Planning Stage Implementation Stage understanding domestic CC needs understanding current status future projections national/sectoral integration appropriate institutional setup
appropriate implementation framework resource acquisition domestic market development knowledge management review/evaluation and feedback mechanism
Appendix 1: Quick Glance at Where Asian LDCs Stand Today
15
Bangladesh Bhutan Cambodia Lao PDR Myanmar National Communications
12Nov 2002 (INC) 13 Nov 2000(INC) 28Nov 2011(SNC)
8 Oct 2002(INC) 2 Nov 2000 (INC) INC finalized, waiting for submission
NAPA Nov 2005 May 2006 March 2007 May 2009 On-going (draft 2012)
NCSA Mar 2007 Dec 2005 Feb 2007 April 2009 Not started TNA On-going Nov 2003
(agriculture) March 2003 (energy, non-energy)
April 2004 (mitigation sectors)
Not yet
CDM CER issued: 1 Registered: 4 At/after Validation:1 DNA approved:6
CER issued: 1 Registered: 2 At/after Validation:1 DNA approved:5
CER issued: 1 Registered: 6 At/after Validation: 4 DNA approved:7
CER issued: 0 Registered: 2 At/after Validation: 8 DNA approved:10
At/after Validation:1
Adaptation Fund Not yet Not yet Yes, MIE project Concept approved*1
Not yet Yes, MIE project Concept approved*2
CIF-PPCR Country program - Country program - - GEF-SCCF Not yet (approved)
National projects:1 Not yet Not yet Not yet
GEF-LDCF National projects:3
National projects:3 National projects:4 National projects:3 National projects:1
GEF-TF National projects:5 Regional/global:6
National projects:4 Regional/global:1
National projects:5 Regional/global:2
National projects:5 Regional/global:1
Regional/global:2
UN-REDD Partner Country Partner Country Partner Country (National Program)
- -
FPCF - Candidate Participant Participant - CIF-FIP - - - FIP Country - *1 Adaptation Fund, KHM/MIE/Food/2011/1: Developing Enhancing Climate Resilience of Rural Communities Living in Protected Areas of Cambodia *2 Adaptation Fund, MMR/MIE/Rural/2011/1: Addressing Climate Change Risks on Water Resources and Food Security in the Dry Zone of Myanmar
Appendix2: Indicative “to-do” list(1)
16
Readiness Planning Implementation
Low-Carbon Climate Resilient
Development
Indicative “to-do” list Potential Means Policy Questions Understanding domestic climate needs
TNA, Vulnerability Assessment, NSCA
Assessments thoroughly conducted? Are the assessment results properly
disseminated?
Understanding current status - GHG emissions - climate risks/hazards
GHG inventories NCs BUR (2014~)
Systematic staff arrangement for NC/inventory preparation? data development? Data sharing scheme properly set
up? Developing future projections -In-house technical capacity for running/assessing models/results - Robust national statistics/data development
TA for projection TA for national statistics
development Technical training
Sufficient human resources allocated for national data management? Domestic experts nurtured? International support sought?
National & sectoral integration of climate change - mainstreaming CC - short/mid/long-term goals - prioritize sectors/activities - project/program formulation - stakeholder engagement
National consultation at appropriate fora (national CC committee) National strategies Secotral plans NAMAs, CDMs, REDD International support
Vertical consistency (national plan-strategy-A/P-projects)
Horizontal consistency (sectoral plans/measures) ensured?
Budgetary linkage well established? National strategy for effectively
utilizing concepts/schemes?
Putting appropriate institutional framework in place - Establish domestic coordination mechanism
National climate change committee Inter-ministerial
coordination
Coordination skill of F/P Are finance ministry and planning
ministry taking part?
Appendix2: Indicative “to-do” list(2)
17
Implementation
Low-Carbon Climate Resilient
Development
Indicative “to-do” list Potential Means Examples and policy questions Setting implementation framework - identify who does what (domestic, international) - identify overseeing & coordinating body
National climate change committee Inter-ministerial coordination Coordination with donors
Do stakeholders(ministries, research institutions, NGOs, donors) have clear understandings of their roles in implementation? Do domestic coordination and
oversight mechanism clearly established to monitor progress?
Resource acquisition - identify donors - who supports what
Traditional ODA, Multilateral funds, Multi-donor facility (pooling), Budgetary support
Do stakeholders have sufficient understandings of sources, and pros/cons?
Strengthening market environment - enable private sector engagement
Domestic institutional & regulatory setup Incentives
Is institutional and regulatory framework set up to enable private sector engagement? Are fiscal incentives available to
promote green investment? Knowledge management - replication, awareness
Knowledge platform Is domestic knowledge platform established to promote awareness and replication of good practices?
Review/evaluation & feed-back mechanism - set & operationalize domestic MRV modality - identify domestic entity for verification
3rd party entity for review Verification entity
Are candidates for possible verification entity identified? Do these entities have sufficient
technical capacity?
