New Activities of Emission ModelingNew Activities of Emission ModelingIntegration of Climate Change Policy &Integration of Climate Change Policy &

Solid Waste Treatment PolicySolid Waste Treatment Policy

Toshihiko MASUINational Institute for Environmental Studies

6th AIM International WorkshopNIES

27-28 March, 2001

Object of New Model Analysis

Evaluation of effects of environmental policies for both global environmental problems (climate change, ...) and domestic environmental problems(solid waste, air pollutant, water pollutant, ...) on economic activities and material balance

Past & Present of This Analysis

• 1998 Analysis using dynamic optimization model (EJOR; 15 sectors & 11 wastes)

• 1999Construction of recursive model(IGES; 32 sectors & 18 wastes)

• 2000Preliminary Analysis on Policy(JSCC; 33sectors & 18 wastes)

• 2001⇒Future directions

Introduction of environmental-economic linkage model

end-use moduleeconomic modulematerial balance module

Introduction of recursive economic model and its preliminary results

Introduction of modification of economic model and its analysis

Activities on AIM Workshop

Overview of Economic Model

• Computable General Equilibrium Model• Recursive Dynamics• Pollutant Generation and Treatment

– Pollutant is regarded as “badsbads”

• Environmental Constraints: – CO2 Emissions– Final Disposal of Solid Wastes

• 33 Sectors, 31 Commodities, and 18 Solid Waste

Model Flow (Sorry too Small!)

PTGUTL

House-hold

ACT(V)

production

PK

PL

POH

PP(V,P)

PM(H,V)

PENE(V,”pro”)

PY(U)

PIWM

PMWM

RED(J,P)

pollutantself

management

PA(P)

PX(H)

PXE(EN)PM(H,J)

PENE(J,P)

PZ

PEK(P)

PL

SWS(F)

sewageserviceactivity

PS(F)

PM(H,”sew”)

PENE(“sew”,”pro”)

PP(“sew”,P)

PEK(“sew”)

PL

PK

POH

IWM(W,WMW)

industrialwaste

managementactivity

PX(H)

PM(H,”iwm”)

PENE(“iwm”,”pro”)

PP(“iwm”,P)

PEK(“w_i”)

PL

PK

POH

PZ

PIW(W,WMW)

PXE(EN)

MWM(W,WMW)

municipalwaste

managementactivity

PX(H)

PM(H,”mwm”)

PENE(“mwm”,”pro”)

PP(“mwm”,P)

PEK(“w_m”)

PL

PK

POH

PZ

PMW(W,WMW)

PXE(EN)

IWS(W,WMW)PWIX(W)

MWS(W,WMW)PWMX(W)

IWX(W)

MWX(W)

PWI(W)

PY(U)

PWM(W)

PY(U)

MWG(J)

IWG(J)

PW(J,”w_m”)

PW(J,”w_i”)

EXD(U)

ABR

PEX(U)

PDM(U)

PIM(I)

MRPA(J,P)

self management

PP(J,P)

MRPS(J,F)PP(J,F)

MRPE(J,P)

discharge into env.

PEV(P) PP(J,P)

MRPW(J,S)PP(J,S)PW(J,S)

PK

PL

PEK(P)

PZ

PCARB

PEV(P)

PDM(U)

INV(U)

PDM(U)

PX(U)

PIM(U)

PINV(U) CAPF PCAP

INFR(IVP) PSI(IVP)

ECPF1(P)

ECPF２(P)

PECP(P)

PGI(U)GI(U)

PDM(U)

PX(U)

PIM(U)

CON(I)

PDM(U)

PX(I)

PIM(I) PC(I)

HOUSE PCONPENEH

COH

PDM(U)

PIM(U)

POHPS(F)

PECH(EN)

IOM(H,J)

PDM(H)

PIM(H) PM(H,J)

PX(H)

EAGG1(EN)

EAGG2(EN)

EAGG3(EN)

PE(EN)PDM(EN)

PIM(EN)

PXE(EN)CEM(EN,J,D)

CEMH(EN)

PEC(EN,J,D)

PECH(EN)PCARB

PCARB

EAH

EAG(J,D)PENE(J,D)

PENEH

GWS

HSS

PWM(W)

PS(F)

PGS

PGW

HWS

GSS

PWM(W)

PS(F)

PDM(“mwm”)

PDM(“sew”)

PDM(“mwm”)

PDM(“sew”)

PDM(U)

PE(EN)

PE(EN)

PE(EN)

PE(EN)

PCAP

PSI(IVP)

PECP(P)

PGI(U)

PTG

PCON

PDM(U)

PIM(U)

PGW

PGS

PE(EN)

Flow of goodssee “commodities” in the model

Activitysee “sectors” in the model

PTGUTL

House-hold

ACT(V)

production

PK

PL

POH

PP(V,P)

PM(H,V)

PENE(V,”pro”)

PY(U)

PIWM

PMWM

RED(J,P)

pollutantself

management

PA(P)

PX(H)

PXE(EN)PM(H,J)

PENE(J,P)

PZ

PEK(P)

PL

SWS(F)

sewageserviceactivity

PS(F)

PM(H,”sew”)

PENE(“sew”,”pro”)

PP(“sew”,P)

PEK(“sew”)

PL

PK

POH

IWM(W,WMW)

industrialwaste

managementactivity

PX(H)

PM(H,”iwm”)

PENE(“iwm”,”pro”)

PP(“iwm”,P)

PEK(“w_i”)

PL

PK

POH

PZ

PIW(W,WMW)

PXE(EN)

MWM(W,WMW)

municipalwaste

managementactivity

PX(H)

PM(H,”mwm”)

PENE(“mwm”,”pro”)

PP(“mwm”,P)

PEK(“w_m”)

PL

PK

POH

PZ

PMW(W,WMW)

PXE(EN)

IWS(W,WMW)PWIX(W)

MWS(W,WMW)PWMX(W)

IWX(W)

MWX(W)

PWI(W)

PY(U)

PWM(W)

PY(U)

MWG(J)

IWG(J)

PW(J,”w_m”)

PW(J,”w_i”)

EXD(U)

ABR

PEX(U)

PDM(U)

PIM(I)

MRPA(J,P)

self management

PP(J,P)

MRPS(J,F)PP(J,F)

MRPE(J,P)

discharge into env.

PEV(P) PP(J,P)

MRPW(J,S)PP(J,S)PW(J,S)

PK

PL

PEK(P)

PZ

PCARB

PEV(P)

PDM(U)

INV(U)

PDM(U)

PX(U)

PIM(U)

PINV(U) CAPF PCAP

INFR(IVP) PSI(IVP)

ECPF1(P)

ECPF２(P)

PECP(P)

PGI(U)GI(U)

PDM(U)

PX(U)

PIM(U)

CON(I)

PDM(U)

PX(I)

PIM(I) PC(I)

HOUSE PCONPENEH

COH

PDM(U)

PIM(U)

POHPS(F)

PECH(EN)

IOM(H,J)

PDM(H)

PIM(H) PM(H,J)

PX(H)

EAGG1(EN)

EAGG2(EN)

EAGG3(EN)

PE(EN)PDM(EN)

PIM(EN)

PXE(EN)CEM(EN,J,D)

CEMH(EN)

PEC(EN,J,D)

PECH(EN)PCARB

PCARB

EAH

EAG(J,D)PENE(J,D)

PENEH

GWS

HSS

PWM(W)

PS(F)

PGS

PGW

HWS

GSS

PWM(W)

PS(F)

PDM(“mwm”)

PDM(“sew”)

PDM(“mwm”)

PDM(“sew”)

PDM(U)

PE(EN)

PE(EN)

PE(EN)

PE(EN)

PCAP

PSI(IVP)

PECP(P)

PGI(U)

PTG

PCON

PDM(U)

PIM(U)

PGW

PGS

PE(EN)

Flow of goodssee “commodities” in the model

Activitysee “sectors” in the model

Household

Production Activities

Including activitiesfor env. preservation

Market

Integration of recycled commodities and

ordinary commodities

Model Overview

capital labor energyinputs for pollution

managementother inter-

mediate inputs

solidwaste

household

investment

final consumption

resource input

environmentalindustry

disposal

recycling

wastetreatment

resource input

finaldisposal

CO2

environmentalinvestment

intermediatemanagement

polic

y

polic

y

polic

y

polic

y

polic

y

polic

y

productionactivity

marketpo

licy

Economic Sectors & CommoditiesID contents ID contents

AGR agriculture, forestry and fisheries WTR collection, purification and distribution of waterMIN mining SAL wholesale and retail tradeFOD manufacture of food FIN finance and insuranceTEX manufacture of textile mill products EST real estate

TRS transportation and communicationsSRV services

CHM manufacture of chemical and allied products GOV government serviceNPS non-profit institution services

SEW sewage serviceFMT manufacture of fabricated metal products MWM municipal waste treatment serviceMCH manufacture of general machinery IWM industrial waste treatment service

COL coal mining and manufacture of coal productsOIL crude oil production and manufacture of petroleum

TRE manufacture of transportation equipment GAS natural gas production and manufacture of gasTHE* thermal power generationHYD* hydro power generation

OTH miscellaneous manufacturing industries NUC* nuclear power generationCNS construction ELE** electricity

*: only sector, and **: only commodity.

NMM manufacture of ceramic, stone, and clayproducts EMC manufacture of equipment for environmental

preservation

PLP manufacture of lumber, wood products,pulp, paper and paper products

BMT manufacture of iron, steel, non-ferrousmetals and products

ELM manufacture of electrical machinery,equipment and supplies

PRI manufacture of precision instruments andmachinery

Treated Solid WastesContents

ASH ashSLD sludgeWOL slush, waste oilWAC waste acidWAL waste alkaliWPL * waste plasticsWPP * waste paperWWD * waste woodWTX * waste fiber and textileWAP * animal and plants wastesWRB * waste rubberSCM * metal trash, scrap metalWGC * waste glassSLG slagWCT construction and demolition wasteDST dust, sootEXC animal excrementCRC animal carcass

ID

*: category of municipal waste.

Modification since Last Year

• Base Year: 1990 ⇒ 1995– Revision of Database

• Time Step: 5 years ⇒ 1 year• Efficiency Improvement:

Exogenous ⇒ Change by New Capital Formation• Taxation: Not Expressed ⇒ Expressed• Capital Stock: Whole Sector ⇒ Individual Sector• Material Balance: Inconsistent ⇒ Consistent• English Manual: Nothing ⇒ Ver. 0 (almost finished)

Simulation and Parameters Modification

Database in 1995

Input-Output TableEnergy BalanceTable Waste Generation

Table

・・・

Calculation in 1995

Parameters

Calculation in 1996

Revision of parameters based on calculated new capital stock share

Revision of parameters based on calculated new capital stock share

Calculation in 1997 ...

Scen

ario

s *Efficiency of new capital*Change of preference*Environmental constraints*…

Production Structure of CGE Model

goods & service m

activity

intermediategoods 1

energy

productioncapital

laborpollution 1

value added

intermediategoods n

composed intermediategoods & service

…

input for pollutionmanagement

pollution p…

goods & service 1 …

σ=0σ=1

σ=0

σ=0

σ=0

electricity

fossil fuel 1

fossil fuel CO2 emission(environmental

resource)

fossil fuel e…

composedfossil fuel

σ=0

σ=0

σ=0produced recycledσ=0

σ：elasticity of substitution

environmentalcapital

laborenergyintermediategoods

σ=0

selfmanagement

contractmanagement

discharge(environmental

resource)

σ=∞

Share of energy inputs depends on the diffusion of capital stock

Necessary Datasetsfor Model Development

Input-output tableEnvironmental industries are disaggregated for detailed analysis.

Energy balance tablePollutant generation, emission & reductionSolid waste flow

Quantity of solid waste generation, management, disposal, and recycle

Input for pollutant managementIncluding not only environmental investment but also energy, labor, and other inputs for pollutant management.

Make matrix This matrix should be prepared when joint products*1 are modeled.

*1 joint products: technologically inseparable products ex. town gas and coke

Necessary Data (1) –Input-output Table

Intermediate Demand Final Demand

Goo

ds A

Goo

ds B

Goo

ds Z

Con

sum

ptio

nEx

pend

iture

Fixe

d C

apita

lFo

rmat

ion

Expo

rt

Impo

rt

Out

put

Goods A

Goods B

Goods ZInte

rmed

iate

Inpu

t

Wage

Val

ue A

dded Operating

SurplusIndirect Tax

- SubsidyDepreciation

Output

XAB

XBB

XZB

WB

SB

TB

DB

YB

XBA XBZ CB FCB EXB IMB YB

…

…

…

:

Intermediate input of Goods B to

produce Good Z

YB=ΣiXiB+WB+SB+TB+DB

YB=ΣoXBo+CB+FCB+EXB-IMB

Environmental equipment, sewage, waste management

service and so on are disaggregated for detailed

analysis.

Fixe

d C

apita

lFo

rmat

ion

for E

nviro

nmen

tPr

eser

vatio

n

EnvironmentalInvestment

Necessary Data (2) –Energy balance table

Energy Type

Ener

gy 1

Ener

gy 2

Ener

gy e

Indigenous Production

Imports

Prim

ary

Ener

gy

Petroleum Refineries

Tran

sfer

Electricity

:

…

:

Tota

l

Sector A

Fina

lC

onsu

mpt

ion

Sector B

:

Residential (Household)

Sector classification is the same as that

in IO table.

Energy balance table is used for estimation of

energy related pollutant generation such CO2, SOx.

Energy type is at least classified into energy

goods in IO table.

Sect

or A

Necessary Data (3) –Pollutant generation, reduction & emission

Industrial Sector

Sect

or B

Sect

or Z

Hou

seho

ld

Generation

Self Reduction

Emission

Pollu

tant

a

GBa

SRBa

EBa

SRAa SRZa SRHa

Contract Reduction

…

…

CRBa

GZa GHa…

CRZa CRHa…

EZa EHa…

GAa

CRAa

EAa

Generation

Self Reduction

Emission

Pollu

tant

p

GBp

SRBp

EBp

SRAp SRZp SRHp

Contract Reduction

…

CRBp

GZp GHp…

CRZp CRHp…

EZp EHp…

GAp

CRAp

EAp

Tota

l

SRTOTa

GTOTa

CRTOTa

ETOTa

SRTOTp

GTOTp

CRTOTp

ETOTp

… … … ……… …

GTOTp=ΣiGip+GHp

Gip=SRip+CRip+Eip

Treated pollutants depend on the analysis.

To the environment

Sector classification is the same as that

in IO table.

Gen

erat

ion

Necessary Data (4) –Solid waste flow

Dire

ct R

euse

Inte

rmed

iate

Man

agem

ent

Tota

l Reu

se

Solid Waste a

Solid Waste b

Solid Waste s

Solid

Was

te DRbWGb WMb TRb

:

Tota

lFi

nal D

ispo

sal

TDb

WGs=DRs+DDs++WMs

Treated solid wastes depend on the analysis.

To the environment(Final disposal site)

Dire

ctFi

nal D

ispo

sal

DDb

Waste Management

Red

uctio

n

Reu

se

Fina

lD

ispo

sal

MZb MDbMRb

DRsWGs WMs TRb TDbDDs MZs MDsMRs

WMs=WMs+MRs+MDs+

TRs=DRs+MRs

TRs=DRs+MRs

To the market(Recycled goods)

From industry &household

Necessary Data (5) –Input for pollutant managementSectors

Sect

or A

Prod

uctio

n

Tota

l

Goods A

Goods B

Goods ZInte

rmed

iate

Inpu

t

Wage

Val

ue A

dded Operating

SurplusIndirect Tax

- SubsidyDepreciation

Output

XAB

XBB

XZB

WB

SB

TB

DB

YB

XBA

…

…

…

:

…

…

…

…

…

…

…

Sector B

:

…

Pollu

tant

a

Sect

or Z

XBZ

Pollu

tant

p

XABY

XBBY

XZBY

WBY

SBY

TBY

DBY

YBY

:

XABa

XBBa

XZBa

WBa

SBa

TBa

DBa

YBa

:

XABp

XBBp

XZBp

WBp

SBp

TBp

DBp

YBp

:

Xio=ΣpXiop+XioY

Output of pollutant sub sectoris equal to the quantity

of self reduced pollutant

YBp=ΣiXiBp+WBp+SBp+TBp+DBp

Each sector is disaggregated into sub sectors such as

production and pollutant self management.

Necessary Data (6) –Make matrix

Commodities

Com

mod

ity A

Com

mod

ity B

Com

mod

ity Z

Sector A

Sector B

Sector Z

Sect

ors

Total output

YAB

YBB

YZB

YB

YBA YBZ

…

…

…

:

Tota

l out

put

QB

Quantity of commodity Zproduced by Sector B.

QB=ΣcYBc

YB=ΣaYaB

YB, total output of commodity B,is equal to the total of IO table.

By using IO table (commodities x commodity) and make matrix, U Matrix (matrix on commodity input by kind of economic activity) is calculated based on the commodity technology, which assumes that each commodity has its typical input structure, regardless of which industry is the producer.

Simulations

1. Evaluation of Environmental PoliciesRecycled paper, low emissions vehicle, and environmental investment for waste management

2. Evaluation of Production Activity ChangeIncrease of reused material input share

3. End-use Model for Waste ManagementSewage sludge treatment

Environmental constraintsCO2 constraint: Kyoto Target (CO2 emissions in 2010/1990 ⇒ 6 % reduction)Final disposal site: Government Target (Quantity of final disposal in 2010/1996 ⇒

50% reduction)

Simulation Results 1(1)

1. Evaluation of Environmental PoliciesA) Enhancement of demand of recycled paper

and low emissions vehicleB) Enhancement of environmental investment to

solid waste management

Background: Operation of several law for enhancement of demand of recycled commodities

Simulation Results 1(2)

GDP Changes from No Policy Case

-1000

100200300400500600700800

2005 2010Year

billio

n ye

n at

199

0 pr

ice A)-1 Recycled paper

A)-2 Low emission vehicleA)-3 Paper + vehicleB) Env. investment

Simulation Results 1(3)

Change of CO2 emissions costs from No Policy Case

-21-18-15-12-9-6-303

2005 2010Year

%

A)-1 Recycled paperA)-2 Low emission vehicleA)-3 Paper + vehicleB) Env. investment

Simulation Results 1(4)

Change of final disposal costs from No Policy Case

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

2005 2010Year

%

A)-1 Recycled paperA)-2 Low emission vehicleA)-3 Paper + vehicleB) Env. investment

Simulation Results 2(1)

2. Evaluation of Production Activity ChangeA) Expansion of share of recycled material inputB) Increase of waste collection cost C) Introduction of waste power generation

Background: – Targets of material reuse by government and business

organization – Uncertainty of recycling activities –collection cost, additional

cost, …

Simulation Results 2(2)

Change of Waste Treatment

0.0E+00

5.0E+07

1.0E+08

1.5E+08

2.0E+08

2.5E+08

3.0E+08

3.5E+08

4.0E+08

4.5E+08

Gener

atio

n in

199

5Re

use

in 1

995

Gener

atio

n in

201

0 (n

o co

nstra

ints

)

Reus

e of

in 2

010

(no

cons

train

ts)

Gener

atio

n in

201

0 (n

o po

licy)

Reus

e of

in 2

010

(no

polic

y)

Gener

atio

n of

A) i

n 20

10

Reus

e of

A) i

n 20

10

Gener

atio

n of

B) i

n 20

10

Reus

e of

B) i

n 20

10

ton

CRC

EXC

DST

WCT

SLG

WGC

SCM

WRB

WAP

WTX

WWD

WPP

WPL

WAL

WAC

WOL

SLD

ASH

0.0E+00

1.0E+07

2.0E+07

3.0E+07

4.0E+07

5.0E+07

6.0E+07

7.0E+07

Gener

atio

n in

199

5Re

use

in 1

995

Gener

atio

n in

201

0 (n

o co

nstra

ints

)

Reus

e of

in 2

010

(no

cons

train

ts)

Gener

atio

n in

201

0 (n

o po

licy)

Reus

e of

in 2

010

(no

polic

y)

Gener

atio

n of

A) i

n 20

10

Reus

e of

A) i

n 20

10

Gener

atio

n of

B) i

n 20

10

Reus

e of

B) i

n 20

10

ton

WGC

SCM

WRB

WAP

WTX

WWD

WPP

WPL

Municipal waste Industrial waste

Simulation Results 2(3)

GDP Change

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Year

GD

P c

hange

tri. yen

at

199

5 p

rice

GDP Loss from env. Const. Scenario A) Scenario B)

Simulation Results 2(4)

GDP Change in each sector (2010/1995)

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

AGR

MIN

FOD

TEX

PLP

CHMNM

MBM

TFM

TM

CH ELM

TRE

PRI

OTH CNSW

TR SAL

FIN

EST

TRS

SRV

GOVNP

SEM

CSE

WM

WM

IWM

COL

OILGAS TH

EHY

DNU

CGDP

No constraints No policy scenariio A) scenariio B)

Simulation Results 2(5)

Marginal cost of CO2 and final disposal

CO2

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

1995 2000 2005 2010Year

Yen a

t 1995 p

rice /

tC

No policy

scenario A)

scenario B)

scenario C)

Final Disposal

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

1995 2000 2005 2010

Year

Yen a

t 1995 p

rice /

ton

No policy

scenario A)

scenario B)

scenario C)

Simulation Results 3(1)

End-use model construction– Sewage sludge* treatment from 1997 to 2026– 26 technologies for treatment– Minimization of total treatment cost

subject to upper limit of quantity of final disposal and material recycling demand

* Volume of sludge is 36 % of final disposal.

Background: Parameter modification by technology change

Simulation Results 3(2)

Change of technology share

dehydrated cakecompostdrying

incinerationfusioncarbonization

In 1997 In 2026Fixed technologyand low recycledmaterial demand

In 2026Introduction of advanced

technology andenhancement of recycled

material demand

Future Directions• Separation of some sectors

– Recycled paper, electric furnaces of crude steel, ...• Separation of intermediate treatment of solid wastes

– Incineration for reduction / other treatments for recycling• Apply this model to AIM collaboration countries

– Modification of model for wide use– Application to India with Dr. Rana

• Apply to Material Balance Analysis– Steel, paper, wood, carbon, ...

• Integration with Bottom-up Model– AIM end-use model / energy efficiency– Waste treatment technology model / solid waste treatment