Networks of the Future(Smart, Multipurpose and Flexible by Design)

World Water Congress and Exhibition Busan, Korea

(16-21, September, 2012)

Kala VairavamoorthyExecutive Director

Patel School of Global Sustainability UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA

• Entire earth system is changing!

Bad News – External Pressures make the Future Difficult

Would we really do the same again?

If we knew that:

• Understanding pipe condition impacts our ability to maintain services and is critical to our long term investments

• Over the next 20 years, electricity costs will double, that electricity cost in 2050 are anybody’s guess.

• Only 20% of urban areas are now built and there is a possibility to do things differently.

• Our projections were significantly off (+/-) ?

Image from WssTP

The future is now!

 Many of the big players see

opportunities for making cities smarter

Smart City Technology IBM Smarter Cities

Sustainable Cities

Smart and Connected Communities

Smart CitiesSmart City of Tomorrow

Smart Water Networks

 

IBM 2010

Many of the big players see opportunities for making cities

smarter…..IBM

 

• Develop and apply technologies to improve core city systems (incl. energy, water transport, ITC )

• Creation of new value through interoperation of different infrastructure systems

• Increase efficiencies, while positioning cities for long-term economic growth

• Optimize around the citizen – citizen centric approach to service provision

Many of the big players see opportunities for making cities

smarter…IBM

WDN zone (DMA) demarcation toolWhat is smart for the water sector:

convergence of technologies..... Hitachi

Quelle: E-Energy Jahreskongress 2009, Prof. Gunter Dueck

Comprehensive management of the water cycle by adopting more intelligent individual technologies, including water recycling and other water treatment technologies, IT, and monitoring & control technologies……….

……..treating the water cycle as a flow of both water and information

Massoud Amin, 2010

Water can learn from the power sector

Clusters create resiliency

Real-time ‘talking’ between customer

and supplier

Security through diversity

 But water is lagging behind in thinking and investments

• 14% of investment for energy grids will go into smart energy grids (Zome 2012)

• 5% of investment for traffic system will go into smart traffic systems (Pikeresearch 2012)

• 3% of investment for water system will go into smart water systems (Pikeresearch 2010)

Smart use of water

Smart control

Smart by design

There are many typologies for smart networks thinking

Smart use of water

Smart control

Smart by design

There are many typologies for smart networks thinking

Grey water

Brownwater

Urine

Solid waste

The Water Machine

Surface Water

Ground Water

Rain Water

Energy

Heat E

n.en

ergy Potable

WaterReclaimed non-potable

QualityA,B,C

Hygienized SludgeNutrients

Electr

ic En

.

G,R,FX-S

But how will water machines be plumbed?

Service water for toilet & laundryService water for garden

Potable water

Pipe Bundles for Different Water Qualities

Kitchen Bath

ToiletLaundry

Garden

Water Machine Water Users

Challenge: Deliver Water Quality Fit for Purpose

Service water for toilet & laundry Potable water

Different Water Qualities at Different Time

Kitchen Bath

ToiletLaundry

Garden

Challenge: Deliver Water Quality Fit for Purpose

0 6 12 18 24

Water Machine Water Users

But how will water machines be plumbed?

Smart use of water

Smart control

Smart by design

There are many typologies for smart networks thinking

‘Smart’ helps manage pipe-bursts more effectively

Allen et al. 2011

Calculate Location of Burst Optimal ValveIsolation

Allen et al. 2011

Isolate Leak

‘Smart’ helps manage pipe-bursts more effectively

Allen et al. 2011

Repair Team

Alert Customer

Pipe Break- Location GPS- Pipe Material- Pipe Depth- …

‘Smart’ helps manage pipe-bursts more effectively

‘Smart’ allows appliances to negotiate with the water market

Wat

er D

eman

d

Time

Ele

ctri

c D

eman

d

Smart meter

Wat

er D

eman

d

Time

Ele

ctri

c D

eman

d

Smart meter

Central Control Unit

‘Smart’ allows appliances to negotiate with the water market

Central Control Unit

Wat

er D

eman

d

Time

Ele

ctri

c D

eman

d

Flattened Peak

Flattened Peak

‘Smart’ allows appliances to negotiate with the water market

Criticality Analysis (1000 pipes)

URGENT ACTION

MONITORING REQUIRED

REHABILIATION PROGRAMMES

NO ACTION

Significance

Pip

e C

ondi

tion

Pipe condition assessment is currently a dark art

Pipe Significance

Embedded Sensors Monitor• Pressures• Velocities• Temperature• Water Quality• Soil Conditions• Material Strains• Pipe Stress

With ‘smart sensors’ it may become better understood

SensorData

HistoricalData

Big Data Analytics

Pipe Replacement Rehabilitation Optimal Plan

Pipe Condition Assessment

URGENT ACTION

MONITORING REQUIRED

REHABILIATION PROGRAMMES

NO ACTION

Networks of the future will have lives of their own

Smart Pipes

• Nano scale sensors embedded into pipes during manufacturing.

• Sensors monitor data on hydraulic, material, and environmental

• Sensors provide geo-referenced data points

Metje et al. 2011

Corrosion formation

Corrosion Repair

Self Healing

• Various strategies: capsule, vascular, intrinsic

• Pipes store healing agents and polymerizers that solidify when mixed

• Healing efficiencies 100%

• Recovery strength >100%

White et al. 2011

Frictionless

• Slippery Liquid-Infused Porous Surfaces (SLIPS)

• Super-thin Nano-substrates infused with a liquid lubricant creates a smooth surface

• Reduced biofilm formation by 96-99%

Epstein et al. 2012

Smart use of water

Smart control

Smart by design

There are many typologies for smart networks thinking

• Entire earth system is changing!

We need smart networks to be adaptive in an uncertain world

Uncertainty in storm events

Uncertainty in quantity & qualityUncertainty in

demand

Uncertainty in runoff response

Uncertainty in carrying capacity/breakage rate

1990 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

F

We need smart networks to be adaptive in an uncertain world

Flexibility is the ability of urban water systems to use their

active capacity to act to respond on relevant alterations

in a performance efficient, timely and cost effective way

What is adaptive/flexible ?

Flexibility is the ability of urban water systems to use their

active capacity to act to respond on relevant alterations

in a performance efficient, timely and cost effective way

Capability for active change of system

Characteristics of the change process

Deal with future uncertainties

What is adaptive/flexible ?

Environment

Desired Use

Flexible Design

Robust Design

Changing

Fixed

Fixed/Known Changing/Unknown

Flexibility VS Robustness

Optimum Design

• Real Options Theory• Net Disturbance

Propagation (NDP)• Range of Resemblance (RR) • Communality Index (CI)

Sustainable Urban Drainage

ecological treatment

green roofs

pervious pavement

infiltration trench

stormwater harvesting

retention pond

SUDs provides modular diversity that increases flexibility resulting

in a complex adaptive system(Sieker et al., 2008, Eckart, 2008)

Suite of Options

SWD

Filter strips

Open trenches

Permeablepavers

Bio Retention

Green roofs RWH

8

Sustainable Urban Drainage

Time

SUDs provides Complex Adaptively

RuralSemi-Urban

Urban

Helm 2007

Sewers

SUDS

Case Study: Kupferzell Germany

Eckart, Sieker, Vairavamoorthy (2010)

Conventional Sewer SUDS

20 annual floodCODPhosporusWetlandsEvaporationDischarge from retentionResource consumptionUsabilitySpace demand

Average high waterSSCupperMicro climateUsability resourcesInvestment costsStaff ratioPresenceSmall scale pattern

Average low waterNitrogenLeadRecharge groundwaterVariety processesOperational costsUtility valueSoil conservationOperational live span

Good performance for several indicators

(high homogeneity and

high flexibility)

Good performance only for few indicators

(low homogeneity and low flexibility)

Eckart, Sieker, Vairavamoorthy 2011

Indicator of Flexibility - Homogeneity Performance

Alt 2 Sewer

Alt 1 SUDS

Case Study ‘Hamburg-Wilhelmsburg’

• Alt 1 SUDS: lower regret for all metrics• Alt 2 Sewer: higher regret for all metrics

Comparison Flexibility Provided by Alternative Solutions

Regret Range of Change

Regret Performance

Regret Effort of Change

Alt 1 SUDS 0 4.71 0

Alt 2 Sewer 25 13.61 31

• Combination of the 3 metricsAlt 1 SUDS is more flexible than Alt 2

Sewer

Move away from a deterministic, path-dependent approach to a

more flexible & adaptive approach

Take home message

(educate future urban leaders to understand how to design and manage urban systems, institutions and regulations in a changing & uncertain world)

Transitioning

Graph Theory Transition Systems

Existing System

Future System Based on Old System

Future System Totally

New System

Transit

ioning ?

Transitioning

Perf

orm

an

ce

Investment

Transitioning Existing Systems ?

0 10 20 30 40

0 10 20 30 40

0 10 20 30 40

0 10 20 30 40

0 10 20 30 40

0 10 20 30 40

0 10 20 30 40

0 10 20 30 40

0 10 20 30 40

0 10 20 30 40

0 10 20 30 40

Sempewo, J., Vairavamoorthy, K. and Grimshaw, F. (2010)

Move away from tinkering and think about how you might have designed from scratch -then look at transitional pathways & don’t be scared to decommission

Take home message

Institutions are the origin of change and the

medium for legitimizing change

MMM

Kalanithy Vairavamoorthyvairavk@usf.edu

Thank You