Futures,Vol. 30, No. 2/3, pp. 189–198, 1998Pergamon 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved

Printed in Great Britain0016–3287/98 $19.00+ 0.00

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ESSAY

Netweaving alternative futuresInformation technocracy or communicative community?

Tony Stevenson

The metaphor of networking is widely used to describe how the emerging communi-cations and information technologies are supposedly overcoming the tyranny of dis-tance. In this case it has positive overtones, as if the barriers are coming down for amore open exchange among different people separated by distance and culture, makingfor some kind of better world, but is such technological optimism justified? Also, is itdeliberate promotion on the part of eager technocrats whose vested interests have beenfavoured often ahead of a concern for the human condition? Here, an alternative meta-phor, netweaving, is used in order to examine the apparent tensions and paradoxessurrounding the introduction of new communications and information technologies.Especially it will investigate the complex associations between apparently opposingdimensions within three layers of the social fabric: globalisation/localisation;centralisation/decentralisation; and standardisation/diversification. A futures studiesassessment is used to anticipate alternative scenarios for the impact on the social fabricby the emerging technologies a generation from now, in 2020. 1998 Elsevier ScienceLtd. All rights reserved

At the outset, it is important to discuss theimplications of the title. The metaphor ofnetweaving is used in preference to that of net-working, since it will be argued that netweav-ing provides a more insightful framework forhelping to understand what is happening nowin the coevolution of human society with theemerging communications and information(C&I) technologies, from the Internet to per-sonalised telephony.

Tony Stevenson is President of the World FuturesStudies Federation, and Director, The Communi-cation Centre, Queensland University of Tech-nology, GPO Box 2434, Brisbane 4001, Australia(Tel: + 61 7 3864 2192; fax: + 61 7 3864 1813;email: t.stevenson@qut.edu.au).

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In a wider sense, networking has becomean overused word. It does have a positivevalue in the conventional wisdom ofexclusionist rational economics and techno-logical optimism where it is believed to pro-mote freer and more open exchange amongpeople separated by distance and culture, asif the new technologies are tearing down thesocial and commercial barriers once seen tomaintain the tyranny of distance. As StevenJones1 has said, the rhetoric promises arenewed sense of community and, in manyinstances, new types and formations of com-munity.

In another context such as marketing, net-working is the metaphor for forging beneficiallinkages among people, to bring them together

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in multilateral sales relationships, like at aTupperware party or a convention of surgeonssponsored by a drug company. However, crit-ics of this free-market approach would suggestthat networking is nothing more than blatantwheeling and dealing to further self interest.Even the marketers are starting to avoid it.Further, in the context of cooperative com-munities, networking also carries positive con-notations of its contribution to multilateralexchange, but for purposes of participation indecision making, mutual understanding andsharing of resources.

Netweaving, although not a commonlyaccepted term and one with hazy origins, avo-ids such confusion in values and provides auseful, new metaphor for studying the way C&I technologies and their applications areunravelling or recreating the social fabric.

The social fabric

It is widely agreed that emerging C&I techno-logies are set to change the nature of the socialfabric like nothing before, but in what way isstill unclear. Whether the social fabric willshrink or expand, whether it will become morecolourfully rich or more drab is still in ques-tion.

There are the technological optimists whopredict a thicker, richer weave as the outcome,while the pessimists fear a wrenching of thesocial fabric by the influential merchants withknowledge and money. The idealists hope fora more harmonious, cooperative linkage ofmulticultural interests acting locally in a globalnetwork, while certain pragmatists see a con-tinuation of the trend to an homogenised, glo-bal culture.

Will there emerge an either/or range ofgold lame for the haves, while the have-notsmust make do with the tattered sackcloth ofthe pauper? Will there be an expanded, richtapestry of diverse colours and communicativetextures harmoniously entwined, or a drab,shrunken uniformity? Or, will there develop abazaar with a wide array of all these socialfabrics?

The C&I paradox

There is no easy answer to these questions. Onsuperficial inspection, the emergence of thenew C&I technologies certainly seems to beshrinking the world in terms of linkages across

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spatial and cultural differences. Electronic mailand the World Wide Web have connectedpeople who once did not communicate, but ata closer look, this shrinkage could be threaten-ing a sense of local community by leechingthe very creativity that is, sometimes nostal-gically, supposed to rely on and nourish localinitiative, decentralised autonomy and diver-sity. While it is forming new global similar-interest communities based on yet more infor-mation, is it leaving the way open for globaltechnocratic control or world wide standardis-ation, or is it impeding the yearning to recoverhighly communicative communities based onmutual support in which the meaning given toinformation, and shared, is more highly valuedthan is its quantity? Or, is it doing both?

The emerging C&I technologies are quali-tatively different from the traditional techno-logies. Because they are digital, rather thananalog, the transmission of data is of higherquality. Because they use new bearers, such asfibre optic cable and enhanced copper wire,higher volumes of information can be trans-mitted, leading eventually to the incorporationof full-motion colour in most applications; andbecause of both these features, they allowinteractivity between and among manypeople, allowing for greater access to pro-duction of information, as well as reception.However, is the interactivity of the Internet areal substitute for personal face-to-face inter-action at this stage, and will it ever be?

Because these C&I technologies aresmarter (more ‘intelligent’) as a result of patch-ing computing to telecommunications, theyare capable of paradoxical or contradictoryeffects. These effects are apparent in the ten-sions particularly between three pairs of forceswhich, if not directly competing, at least havea bearing on different elements or different lay-ers of the social fabric. They are: globalisationand localisation; centralisation and decentra-lisation; and standardisation and diversifi-cation.

Whether they are simultaneous, recipro-cal bipolar opposites, paradoxical comp-lementarities, or different forces acting at dif-ferent logical levels2 needs furtherinvestigation.3 Or are they coevolving? What-ever their nature, they certainly help to dem-onstrate the significant, if complex, way inwhich emerging C&I technologies are actingon the human symbolic system to weave thefuture.

Essay: T Stevenson

Human symbolising

Walter Truett Anderson4 has reminded us howthe human ability to symbolise has transfor-med both social interaction and inner, humanexperience, as well as the biosphere itself.Developing into speech and, later, writing, thissymbolising has been at the very heart ofhumankind’s manipulation of plant and ani-mal life. The same symbolic system, attendedby modern transportation, communications,commerce, human migrations, and the bio-logical manipulations of agriculture andscience, is “wrapping a new system of linkagesaround the globe, creating new patterns ofinteraction among all things that inhabit it. Theeffects of human civilisation sweep through allnatural ecosystems, change them, and connectthem in new ways to the rest of the world”.5

As Peter Allen6 has said, human beingscreate their future through an imperfect learn-ing process in which the interaction of theirdecisions is spurred by the difference betweenexpectation and experience. He says there israrely enough information for complete under-standing. Thus ignorance, or multiple under-standing, allows exploration and hence learn-ing. It would be interesting to examine howsuch a process follows Bateson’s7 notion oftacit learning or metacommunication.

The globalisation spawned by suchhuman processes in this advanced, symbolicsystem and its impingement on the species’own biophysical homeland, now stand readyto turn back on the very social system whichcreated such conditions. This backlash will beaided and abetted by the emerging C&I net-works, now blithely called superhighways,which have the potential to alter humangovernance and quality of life.

Even back in the 1970s, according to Har-lan Cleveland,8 we did not realise how explos-ive would be the marriage of computers andtelecommunications, requiring us to rethinkthe very fundamentals of our philosophy, torethink an economics based on scarcity,governance based on secrecy, laws based onexclusive ownership and management basedon hierarchy. But the rethinking is compli-cated by the notion highlighted by JamesRosenau9 that new technologies have intensi-fied pressures “toward both globalisation andindividualisation, centralising and decentralis-ing dynamics that are at one and the sametime reinforcing and offsetting”.

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Global/local tensions

It appears that globalisation is contending withcontemporary, countervailing trends for local-isation as witnessed, for example, by increasedtribalism and ethnic conservatism, as well ascalls for more local autonomy. It seemsimpossible to consider the impacts of globalis-ation without also examining its reciprocalassociation with local change among individ-uals. As Rosenau10 argues, macro changesimpact significantly upon micro actors and,conversely, the micro changes feed back tosustain or enlarge the dynamics unfolding atthe macro level.

By juxtaposing photographs of recentevents, Rosenau metaphorically has summar-ised “the central tension presently rackingworld affairs”. One image shows the earthtaken from the moon, a blue sphere seeminglysuspended in timelessness, expressing “thelarge extent to which all humans are confinedto the same limited space and thus bound tothe same vulnerabilities”. The other is an intra-uterine photograph of a foetus, “the beginningof life set to evolve its own identity and totrace its own unique course”. Communi-cations technologies have repeatedly circu-lated, worldwide, “contradictory images thatsignify permanence and fragility, universalityand diversity, continuity and change”.

The C&I technologies have the potentialto impact on both globalisation and localis-ation, and to link them on a global scale. Theycan provide a linkage between local and glo-bal activities through the global coverage oflocal events, such as the Chernobyl disaster,and the localisation of global issues in the waythat Chernobyl has suggested the need at thelocal level to check the potential for radiationdisaster in neighbourhood toxic dumps. Theyhave the potential for the powerful to gain glo-bal control of the telecommunications systemwhich mediates the technologies and theirapplications since it is the largest artificial con-trivance yet known; and at the same time theinteractivity progressively being added to thesystem has the potential to empower locally.

Centralisation or decentralisation?

This potential to evoke similar tensionsbetween centralisation and decentralisation isevident in van Dijk’s11 argument that, at thelevel of the Western nation state, governmentsseek to strengthen the central determination of

Essay: T Stevenson

limiting conditions, such as state expenditureand the efficient registration of citizens, whileseeking to decentralise local administration.C&I technologies have much to offer nationalgovernments in van Dijk’s example, not onlyin controlling financial disbursement andmaintaining data bases on information andpeople, but at another level, in decentralisingcapital formation, documentation and work.

Janet Lippman Abu-Lughod12 has shownhow communications revolutions, from print-ing to the telephone, have routinely permittedthe decentralisation of some elements ofsociety while, at the same time, tending toconcentrate others. She suggests that the con-solidation of the absolutist nation state wasassisted by the ability to codify, in print, regu-lations and directives from the centre to theperipheries. Simultaneously, in Europe, itiner-ant printers diffused common knowledge andmade possible printed production for special-ised market niches.

Standardisation or diversity?

Similarly, C&I technologies also have a role inthe reciprocal trends to standardisation anddiversification. For example, satellite tele-vision is increasing the standardisation ofEnglish as an international language: theWorld Wide Web publishes largely in English;MTV takes the Western lyrics of much contem-porary rock music into Eastern Europe andAsia; and foreign ministers appear in the elec-tronic media speaking English. At the sametime, C&I technologies have the potential forcreating diversity, for example, offering instan-taneous translation, a capacity that would bewelcomed by the critics, such as TsudaYukio13 who sees the dominance of English asthe third most serious discrimination issue inthe world after race and gender.

There are instances where a trend towardsglobal standardisation of culture and socialnorms has engendered a backlash whichappears as local fundamentalism wherebylocal groups or communities react byretreating into their traditional local cultures,sometimes in rather extreme and exclusiveways. There are current examples in the for-mer Yugoslavia, in the struggles of small terri-tories of the former Soviet Union to gain inde-pendence and regain their traditional cultures,and in central Africa. Also, ethnic conserva-tism is becoming obvious in many immi-gration policies of Western nations, and in the

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related public discourse as we are seeing nowin Australia.

Major cross currents of change

The complex interplay of just three sets ofreciprocal trends, as briefly introduced above,makes it difficult to answer the original ques-tions posed, and it makes forecasting virtuallyimpossible, especially over the time span tothe year 2020. Surely forecasting must be futilewhen we take into account yet more trends,or as they have been called here, the cross cur-rents of change which are sweeping throughour contemporary society. We cannot reason-ably assume that the set of initial conditionswill not change significantly during a gener-ation. This renders problematic the use of pre-dictive methods for extrapolation from patternsof historical data within a very large numberof variables enfolded in a highly complexhigh-order process of change through 20 ormore years.

Given these difficulties, it is proposed totake a line of speculation rather than analysisin order to further illuminate our assessmentsof the future; a domain in space–time forwhich no empirical data are available. Afutures studies approach is used to envisionalternative futures. This certainly will not giveany better forecasts than the extrapolativemethods. Forecasting is not intended. Instead,the futures approach allows a comparativeanalysis of some of the choices available to usfor the year 2020 by working backwards fromthe future, instead of forwards from the past orpresent. It would be interesting to compare thedata inferred from envisioning with the outputsgenerated from certain new processes of non-linear modelling and simulations.14

Firstly, however, I present a brief examin-ation of some of the major cross currents ofchange, borrowing from Jim Dator’s15 five tsu-namis of change.

Demography

I The world’s population continues toincrease exponentially.

I One hundred years ago the white popu-lation of the world represented 50%; it ispresently 20%; by 2020, at this rate, it couldbe 5%.

I Transmigration is occurring, particularly in

Essay: T Stevenson

eastern Europe, Africa and central Asia, likenever before.

I In so-called developed countries, the popu-lation is ageing, while in developing coun-tries the proportion of young people is rap-idly increasing.

I Certain communities and people want toreturn to a village lifestyle and certain pro-jects seek to revitalise small communities torecapture the communities support systemsof village life.

I AIDS and other new viruses have the poten-tial to reach epidemic proportions.

Globalisation

Globalisation is occurring simultaneously withlocalisation; centralisation with decentralis-ation; and standardisation (for example, a glo-balised culture) with diversification. Whetherthese are directly opposing forces, or para-doxical movements, or happening at differentlogical levels, they are happening concur-rently. New C&I technologies have the poten-tial for these ‘contradictory’ changes to materi-alise in terms of economic, technical, political,social and cultural change. They can furthercentralise social control or empower com-munities for self-determination.

Governance

I The concepts of North–South anddeveloped–developing are collapsing. Cer-tain so-called developed countries, forexample the USA, contain large pockets ofpoverty, while certain so-called developingcountries now contain powerful new elites.

I The nation state, at least partly because ofC&IT, is losing its influence. Much financialexchange and trade now bypass the formerauthority of nation states. The non-govern-mental, alternative summit at Rio de Jan-neiro, and other alternative meetings inBeijing and Istanbul, are examples of thechallenge to the authority of nationalgovernments by non-governmental organis-ations (NGOs).

I Corridors of economic influence (forexample, Orange County, California and theKansai district, Japan) and networks ofregions are replacing the traditional criticalmass of the nation state. The world is divid-ing into the haves and have-nots in a pattern

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no longer necessarily related to nation-state-hood.

Technology

I C&IT are further altering the relationshipsamong people, and between humanity andnature; there are the technical optimists andthe technical pessimists.

I Genetic engineering and nanotechnologypotentially make an entirely artificialworld possible.

Economy

I There is record personal, corporate andnational debt with a significant number ofinstitutions in the capitalist and non-capital-ist world technically insolvent.

I The international monetary system, partlybecause of the mounting debt and signifi-cant trade imbalances, is in danger of col-lapsing.

I The rush to a free-market, capitalist systemin certain once-communist countries, parti-cularly Russia, is leading to a search for aneconomic system beyond the control ofboth the market and the state; in the case ofRussia, control is increasingly in the handsof organised crime.

I The concept of development, like modernis-ation, is a Western notion. It is being chal-lenged by countries struggling to catch upwhere the right to development is increasingin currency. Meanwhile, in developedcountries, the notion of sustainable com-munity (rather than development) is emerg-ing.

Ecology

I We face a massive repair bill to restore nat-ure’s self-renewing capacity.

I The concept of ecology, with the extreme‘deep’ ecology, gets increasing attention.

I There is increasing recognition of the closeassociation between economics and ecol-ogy.

I On the other hand, there is a concurrent,emerging notion that nature has already

Essay: T Stevenson

been destroyed and that humankind mayneed to learn how to govern evolution.

De-Westernisation

I Democracy is increasingly being recognisedas a Western construct. Certain developingnations have asserted their own definitionsof democracy while, in the West, there is agrowing suspicion about whether democ-racy is practised, and even whether it works,since it can cater poorly for governance ofthe minority of the electorate.

I There is a similar, increasing awareness thathuman rights is a Westernised notion.

I Multiculturalism in the West does not meanpower sharing, whereas in certain non-Western countries it does.

I The study of the philosophy of sciencereveals that it is a Western invention whichoften disregards the earlier contributions ofnon-Western thinkers. There is an emergingproject to ‘rediscover’ non-Western sciencefrom the perspectives of non-Western cul-ture.

Mindset

I World views are no longer restricted tonotions of ethnicity or geography; there isrecognition of a plurality of possible worldviews.

I Postmodernism is spreading in influencebeyond art and the humanities into aspectsof governance, futures studies and socialdevelopment.

I There is an awakening of human spiritualityas an antidote to entrenched rationalism, innumerous parts of the world.

Alternative futures

From this list of cross currents and the forego-ing analysis, after using some personal specu-lation enriched by a wide variety of visioningworkshops in many parts of the world, and fol-lowing earlier visions for C&I,16 four alterna-tive futures have been derived from a futuresstudies perspective. These alternatives areintended to set the framework within whichwe can consider the complex choices facing

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us from the integration into our social fabricof the emerging C&I technologies.

Again, this is not an attempt to forecastthe future. That would be impossible given thecomplex interactions of the cross currents ofchange in which the world is enmeshed.Further, there are too many unknown variablesthat will intervene on the way to the future.

Assuming that the future is not preor-dained but interactively created in a complexcoevolutionary process, it seems useful toengage in a futures-visioning process. Ideallysuch a process should involve all stakeholders.The process assumes that by having fore-sight—looking ahead—there is a range ofalternative futures available to us at any onetime. The future we end up in is the result ofthe choices we have today and the decisionswe make about those choices.

The four future scenarios proposedassume there will be no unforeseen natural orhuman-inspired catastrophe. It is also assumedthat the C&I technologies will continue to bemajor players with the significant potential forchange that has been widely attributed tothem.

The scenarios are:

I Gold Lame and Sackcloth scenario;I Drab Uniform scenario;I Rich Tapestry scenario; andI Bazaar scenario.

The Gold Lame and Sackcloth scenario seesHollywood global culture widen the gapbetween the haves and have-nots. The DrabUniform is an homogenising alternative wherethose with influence strengthen their control.In a Rich Tapestry future, diversity and collab-oration, two of the potentialities for the emerg-ing technologies, are the salient character-istics. While the Bazaar scenario, a mixture ofthe three other futures, is more likely toeventuate within a generation, a plea is madefor the Rich Tapestry scenario where networksare owned by consortia of communities.

It is important that these scenarios bewoven for at least a (Western) generation intothe future, about the year 2020, since such atime frame is surely the minimum lead timeneeded for the significant choices and changesthat need to be made and the education of anew group of effective adults with changedmindsets.

Through such visioning, the choicesavailable will become clearer and their impli-cations can be debated. Thus individuals can

Essay: T Stevenson

make a difference in deciding which futurethey prefer to hand on to future generations.They can anticipate, and take responsibilityfor, the consequences of today’s actions bylinking longer-term visions to today’s choicesand decisions, a practice not common in con-temporary business and politics.

While Asia-Pacific is presently attractingglobal attention for its anticipated economicleadership, these scenarios do not confinethemselves to that geographic region. Elec-tronic networks, such as the Internet, are mak-ing geographic space an anachronism.

Gold Lame and Sackcloth scenario

This is a highly possible, if not probable, scen-ario. We have, basically, an escalation of thecurrent situation. The gap between rich andpoor, whether in terms of access to infor-mation, materials or money, gets even wider.The fabric of the rich is crafted from the thre-ads once worn by certain of their oppressed.Difference is tolerated, but mainly to dis-tinguish between those who have and thosewho do not. Those in power travel first classwhile the rest must struggle to survive. Thecentre controls those at the periphery andfurther colonises their labour, mind, lifestyleand spirit. Optimisation of productivity isvalued higher than widespread creativity andhappiness. The nation state is largely replacedby elite transnational networks of vested inter-ests which by the end of the 1990s havefurther bypassed the authority of the nationstate with the aid of C&I technologies. TheNorth–South gap is being replaced by mar-ginalisation of certain regions, even within thepresent industrialised nation states, or what isleft of them. Ownership of the networks is inrelatively few hands and they have a leadinginfluence on social governance. Culturebecomes further globalised; Hollywood ownsthe World Wide Web. English, predominantlywith an American accent, becomes even morewidely used as the international language.Education is increasingly centralised to glo-balise the world society. The economicimperative still seeks to assert human domi-nance over nature and the balance betweeneconomics and ecology still favours econom-ics. Technology is power and information ismoney. Aided by science and technology, lifebecomes more automated and the livingenvironment more artificial, with spiritualitythe only haven for the have-nots. Life is still

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institutionalised but new global institutionsreplace many of the old, local ones. Individualliberty and human dignity are realisablemainly by those at the centre. The vastmajority have submitted further to depen-dence on the controllers of the system.

Drab Uniform scenario

This is an extreme scenario with an overloadof information, but it is possible if not prob-able. The networks have hoisted global cen-tralising authority to a small, powerful elite ofbusiness and political interests (even moreconcentrated and centralised than in the GoldLame and Sackcloth scenario). It may be thatthis technocratic authority is held by the own-ership of the international network monopoly,itself. Virtually everyone but the small groupof global elite is subservient to a standardisingauthority and is virtually homogenised ineconomic and political terms. Most people areclothed alike in symbolic, uniform fabric. Dif-ference is scorned. Those in power travel in asmall first class suite while the rest must strug-gle to survive. The powerful centre standard-ises humanity on a global dimension in termsof their labour, mind, lifestyle and spirit.Efficiency and productivity reign supreme, atleast in the minds of the controllers. Nationstates are few, having been replaced by a cen-tral, concentrated network of business andpolitical interests made possible by C&I tech-nologies. Much of what was the North hasbeen turned into the South, just as much ofNew York City now resembles the Third, if notFourth, world. Small enclaves of the rich andpowerful exist in isolation under tight security.Ownership of the networks is centralised inthe power monopoly which is in league withorganised crime. Traditional culture breaksdown under the strain of a uniform global aes-thetic. English is forcing most other languages,except Chinese, out of common usage. Edu-cation is increasingly centralised and standard-ised globally. Nature falters under the econ-omic imperative and artificial replacementsare engineered through nanotechnology. Theworld is fast becoming artificial with humanspirituality in decline. Life is still institutional-ised but globally. Individual liberty and humandignity are out of the question for most but asmall elite. While the vast majority have sub-mitted further to dependence on the control-lers of the system, guerilla movements arebeginning to challenge global law and order.

Essay: T Stevenson

Rich Tapestry scenario

This is a highly desirable, communicativescenario for the vast majority, but is improb-able without a change in the current, domi-nant mindset, at least with the economic andpolitical leadership. Certain critics wouldname it the ‘utopian’ scenario. The gap, interms of access to information, materials andmoney, begins to close. The fabric mostvalued is a rich tapestry of diverse colours andtextures with the primary purpose of creatingunderstanding across diverse cultures and sub-cultures. Difference is not only tolerated butencouraged. Threads from all social strata arevalued and shared. There is no need for firstclass. Most people travel that way, but withmodest trimmings. There is a hardly definablecentre. People are self-reliant and value self-determination. Labour is owned by individualsnot by a central authority. Most laborious tasksare performed by automation, leaving the car-ing functions to individual effort. Work isneither compulsory nor overbearing andpeople have more quality time in which to becreative and happy. The nation state, left withlittle authority, is largely replaced by a net-work of communities largely self-organising atlocal and regional levels with the help of C&I technologies used appropriately. The North–South gap is becoming harder to define, withpockets of underdevelopment in countries ofboth the former North and South. The once-marginalised are being singled out for specialassistance. Internet collaborates with othernetworks which also are associated with a net-work of networks, including those which arecooperatively owned and maintained by com-munities collaborating in local and global con-sortia. The Los Angeles entertainment hub hasretreated from cultural dominance. Severallanguages are emerging in international use,especially Chinese. English is still widely usedinternationally, but citizens with internationalinterests are becoming multilingual as was thecase in the uniting Europe of the 1990s. Edu-cation is increasingly decentralised to accountfor regional and local preferences. A socialcompact between economy and ecology seeksto rehabilitate environmental degradation andprevent further abuse. Ecological engineeringis a prime social and business function. Tech-nology is increasingly relegated to being a toolfor solving social problems, rather than anengine for social change. The artificial isvalued as highly as the natural and humanspirituality finds new dimensions and means

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of expression. Life is largely being deinsti-tutionalised with a waning of interinstitutionalcompetition. Individual liberty and human dig-nity are highly valued along with socialresponsibility and a sense of community.There is a new meaning for human potential.

Bazaar scenario

This is the most probable scenario, given thatit may take more than a decade to see achange in the conventional wisdom of econ-omic rationality and representative, ratherthan participative, democracy. There are richand poor, with some slight closing of the gap.There is a variety of fabrics, gold lame andsackcloth, drab uniforms in certain regionsand a growing inventory of rich tapestries. Dif-ference is accepted, but not uniformly. Thereare several classes of travel, depending onwhere one lives. There is centralised controlin certain regions and autonomy in others.Nation states still exist, but most are waning.There are several centres of control, as well asregions where individual and communityautonomy values personal labour, and differ-ent mindsets and lifestyles. Creativity is valuedas highly as productivity depending on thecommunity. A mosaic of networks coexist withpatches of centralised authority, both sup-ported in their own way by C&I technologies.The North–South gap is less discernible; itdoes exist but not on North–South lines. Cer-tain former industrialised areas have swappedplaces with what today are the underdevel-oped. Ownership of the networks is fairlywidely spread, although monopolies exist oversome regions. Culture becomes further glo-balised in certain regions, while other regionsmaintain and, even enhance, their traditionalheritage. English becomes more widely used,but so does Chinese and, perhaps, a languagesuch as Indonesian. Education is standardisedin some regions but deinstitutionalised inothers. Certain regions strike a balancebetween nature and economy, while othersbecome even more economically rational.Technology and information are differentlyvalued, according to one’s community. Arti-ficial environments are evident in certainregions while in others nature has been paidmore respect than at present. Human spiritu-ality is valued by some and despised asirrational by others. Certain communities havedeinstitutionalised while others have inventednew institutions for control and standardis-

Essay: T Stevenson

ation. Individual liberty and human dignity arevalued highly in some regions more thanothers. Maybe, looking at this scenario today,it would be more appropriate to call it Bizarre!Yet it seems, today, the most likely.

From scenarios to backcasting

Recalling that the envisioning of alternativescenarios is not intended as a definitive con-struction, they offer a means to allow a varietyof different perspectives to be examined anddebated in the present day. Envisioning, suchas this, enables individuals to participate in thechoices available on the pathways to thefuture.

The use of scenarios is made more power-ful with backcasting,17 a method of identifyingthe changes that need to have occurred alongthe way to the realisation of a scenario, as wellas the necessary strategies and actions thatneed to be put in place for such changes tooccur. Backcasting is simply a means of work-ing backwards from the future. For example,in order for collaborative netweaving to takeplace, that is an empowering of local com-munities to link globally for exchange of goodsand services, as in the Rich Tapestry scenario,backcasting must identify what new insti-tutions need to be in place, or laws amended,by about the year 2010, for any significantchange to occur in 2020. This may demand alobbying campaign with the customs officialsof the nation state to change customs regu-lations, that is assuming nation states still holdsuch legal power.

It is readily admitted that envisioning isrestricted by the inability to foresee whatchanges and interventions lie ahead.Envisioning can also be limited by a failure tofreely admit idiosyncratic, or nonaverage,thinking. It is a means of foresight which, ifdone continually, allows forthcoming changesto be anticipated as early as possible, provid-ing a range of options for choice and decisionmaking. It is like driving a car. We do notknow what is around the bend, but we arecontinually preparing for it.

Futures visioning is not meant as areplacement for history, simply a way ofextending the temporal perspective. It is stillimportant to learn from history; and futures-oriented thinking, by breaking free of past andcurrent conventions, can often help redefinehistory in terms of new views of the future.

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Which C&I future?

Four scenarios have been constructed in orderto examine, critically, some of the optionsopen to the human condition through theintervention of emerging C&I technologies.Personally, I believe the Rich Tapestry scen-ario offers hope for the most desirable futureof any others discussed. However, it does needwhat may be generally viewed as an unlikelycommitment, or a change of mindset or heart,by those currently driving the development ofthe emerging C&I technologies. While it ishighly unlikely to see this kind of scenariobecome, soon, a global reality, there could bepockets of the world in which localempowerment becomes a reality.

Parts of the Gold Lame and Sackclothscenarios have been anticipated by authorssuch as Petrella18 and constitute a linear extra-polation of many trends already evident incontemporary society. However, we cannotignore the simultaneous forces for centralis-ation and decentralisation, standardisation anddiversification that most likely will ensuresome social plurality by 2020.

The Drab Uniform scenario, as a harshextreme, seems unlikely to eventuate globally,given the pluralism of today’s society, butthere are parts of the world where neo-fascismand radical nationalism may see it eventuate.Russia is one possibility where criminalelements and/or nationalist radicals could takecontrol of society, given present events.

From the current position in space–time,and given the tensions discussed, it seemsmore likely that the Bazaar scenario will mosttypify the global future within a generation. Inpractice, a generation does not seem longenough to expect significant changes in theNorth–South gap, the power difference heldover the users by the technocrats, and the con-servative antivisionary leadership provided bytoday’s political leaders whose horizon stopsat the next election, or the self interest ofpresent investment in C&I technologies andtheir associated applications.

This paper has presented an example ofalternative scenarios for the development ofthe emerging telecommunications networks. Itis also an example of how the range of alterna-tives could ideally be used as an agenda forpublic education on the options for the futureand a stimulus for their political participationin the policy development of our futurenetweaving. But, are we yet living in a suf-ficiently communicative society to expect

Essay: T Stevenson

such public participation in a critically-important technological assessment? Orshould the likes of Bill Gates or the DisneyCorporation make that assessment for us?Open question.

Notes and references

1. Jones, S., Understanding community in theinformation age. In CyberSociety: Computer-mediated Communication and Community,ed. S. Jones. Sage, Thousand Oaks, 1994, pp.10–35.

2. For example, Bateson, G., Steps to an Ecologyof Mind. Intertext Books, London, 1972.

3. See Stevenson, T., Burkett, I. and San SanMyint, Interconnecting diverse, local com-munities for global change. Paper for presen-tation at the International CommunicationAssociation Conference, Sydney, July 1994.

4. Walter Truett Anderson, To Govern Evolution:Further Adventures of the Political Animal.Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, Boston, 1987, pp.11–29.

5. Ibid, p. 243.6. Allen, P., Why the future is not what it was:

New models for evolution. Futures, July/August1990, 555–570.

7. Berman, M., The Reenchantment of the World.Cornell University Press, Ithaca, 1981, pp.193–234.

8. Cleveland, H., Birth of a New World: An OpenMoment for International Leadership. Jossey-Bass, San Francisco, 1993, pp. 3.

9. Rosenau, J., The process of globalization: Sub-stantive spillovers, elusive exchanges, and sub-tle symbols. Paper presented at the 60th Con-gress de l’Association Canadiene–Francaisepour l’Avancement des Sciences, Montreal,May 13 1992, p. 1.

10. Rosenau, J., Citizenship in a changing globalorder. In Governance without Government:Order and Change in World Politics, eds.James Rosenau and Ernst-Otto Czempiel. Cam-bridge University Press, Cambridge, 1992, pp.272–273.

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11. Van Dijk, J. A. G. M., Communication net-works and modernisation. CommunicationResearch, 1993, 20(3), 399.

12. Lippman Abu-Lughod, J., Communication andthe metropolis: Spatial drift and the reconsti-tution of control. Asian Journal of Communi-cation, 1992, 2, 12–30.

13. Yukio, T., The dominance of English andlinguistic discrimination. Media Development,1992, 1, 34.

14. For example Allen, P., Dynamic models ofevolving systems. System Dynamics Review,1988, 1(2), 109–130.

15. Dator, J., American state courts, fire tsunamisand four alternative futures. Futures ResearchQuarterly, 1993, 9(4), 9–30.

16. Stevenson, T., Alternative future scenarios fornetworking communication. Keynote addressto the 6th Hanbek International Conference,Toward Creation of a New Humanity for theEra of Information Society, Seoul, 8 May 1996;Stevenson, T., Communicating in a shrinkingworld: local/global networking. Paperpresented at the plenary session Communicat-ing in a Shrinking World: Reaching Out AcrossCulture, Asian Mass Communication and Infor-mation Research Centre Annual Conference,Bangkok, 22–25 June 1994; Stevenson, T. andLennie, J., Technology Studies 1995a, 2(1), 1–25; Stevenson, T. and Lennie, J., Emergingdesigns for work, living and learning in theCommunicative Age. Futures Research Quar-terly, 1995b, 11(3), 5–36.

17. Boulding, E. and Ziegler, W., Image and actionin peace building. Journal of Social Issues,1988, 44(2). Backcasting is the opposite offorecasting which seeks to extrapolate thefuture from the past or present. Unlike fore-casting, backcasting does not constrain whatis possible in future, since it works back fromscenarios or visions which need not be restric-ted by past and present conventions, insti-tutions, values and mindsets; although it is theproduct of an extant mindset. Used withenvisioning techniques, it offers a way ofbreaking free from the current stalemate whichmay have been perpetuated by existing prob-lems and ways of seeing and doing things.

18. Petrella, R., Techno-apartheid for a globalunderclass. The New Federalist, 1993, 5(6), 3.