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NESCOE’s 2019 Economic Study:
Offshore Wind Integration
Business Network for Offshore Wind
October 17, 2019
Ben D’Antonio, Counsel & Analyst
New England States Committee on Electricity
2
² Focus:ResourceAdequacy,SystemPlanning&
Expansion
² Resources:5full-timestaffwithdiversedisciplines&
experience.Consultantsonmarkets,transmission&for
independentstudies
²Moreinformation:includingfilings&commentsat
§ www.nescoe.com
§ Twitter:@NESCOEStates
NESCOEisNewEngland’sRegionalStateCommittee,
governedbyaBoardofManagersappointedbyeachofthe
NewEnglandGovernorstorepresentthecollectiveviewsof
thesixNewEnglandstatesonregionalelectricitymatters
Overview
• StateLawsandSelectedMechanisms
• ResourceAdequacyandStateLaws
• AnalysisofRenewableandCleanEnergy
3
StateLawOverview
• EachNewEnglandStateadoptslawsandregulations
reflectiveofthepolicieseachstateidentifiesasappropriate
forconsumersinthatstateaswellasthemechanisms
throughwhichtoimplementthosepolicies
• NewEnglandStateswithpoliciesthatprioritizeclean
energyresourceshavecommittedtoexploreamechanism
tovaluetheattributesofthoseresources,whileensuring
consumersinanyonestatedonotfundthepublicpolicy
requirementsmandatedbyanotherstate’slaw– Mostrecentexample:https://www.coneg.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/New-England-
Governors-Statement-of-Cooperation-on-Regional-Energy-3-15-19.pdf
4
RenewableResources
Common Technologies State State-Specific Additional Technologies
• Wind
• Solar Photovoltaic (PV)
• Small Hydro
• Landfill Gas
• Biomass (subject to
eligibility requirements)
• Anaerobic Digestion
• Geothermal
• Solar Thermal
• Ocean Thermal
• Wave
• Tidal
• Fuel Cells using
Renewable Fuels
MaineMunicipal Solid Waste (“MSW”) with recycling,
combined heat and power (“CHP”), Thermal
MassachusettsSustainable biomass, certain new or incremental
hydroelectric, MSW with recycling
Connecticut
Sustainable biomass, MSW, fuel cells using non-
renewable energy, CHP, new hydro, large-scale hydro
(only if shortfall in Class I resources, capped at 5% in
2020), low-emission advanced renewable energy
conversion technologies
Rhode Island Sustainable biomass
Vermont Large Hydro, small distributed generation
New
Hampshire
“Useful thermal energy”, CHP, new or co-fired
biomass, biodiesel
5
RenewablePortfolioStandard
6
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Connecticut
Class I 19.5% 21.0% 22.5% 24.0% 26.0% 28.0% 30.0% 32.0% 34.0% 36.0% 38.0% 40.0%
Class II 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
Class III 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
Maine
Class I 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
Class Ia 2.5% 5.0% 8.0% 11.0% 15.0% 19.0% 23.0% 27.0% 31.0% 35.0% 40.0%
Class II 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%
Massachusetts
Class I 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% 22.0% 24.0% 26.0% 28.0% 30.0% 32.0% 34.0% 35.0%
Class IIa 2.7% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2%
Class Iib 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%
Clean Energy Standard 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 5.0%
New Hampshire
Class I 9.6% 10.5% 11.4% 12.3% 13.2% 14.1% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
Class II 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
Class III 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%
Class IV 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
Rhode Island
Existing 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
New 12.5% 14.0% 15.5% 17.0% 18.5% 20.0% 21.5% 23.0% 24.5% 26.0% 27.5% 29.0%
Vermont
Distributed Generation 2.2% 2.8% 3.4% 4.0% 4.6% 5.2% 5.8% 6.4% 7.0% 7.6% 8.2% 8.8%
Standard 52.8% 56.2% 55.6% 55.0% 58.4% 57.8% 57.2% 60.6% 60.0% 59.4% 62.8% 62.2%
RenewablePortfolioStandard
7
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
An
nu
al
Ele
ctri
c E
ne
rgy
(G
Wh
)
Year
Total projected RPS targets (all classes) for New England,
2019 to 2030, in GWh
Total New RPS Resources
Total Exising RPS Resources
PublicPolicyResource Outlook
8
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
An
nu
al
Ele
ctri
c E
ne
rgy
(G
Wh
)
Total projected policy resource targets (all classes) and goals for New England,
2019 to 2030, in GWh
Traditional Resources
MA Clean Energy
New Renewables
Existing Renewables
Behind-the-Meter Solar PV
Energy Efficiency
Long-TermContracts
• CleanEnergyRequestforProposals(RFP)– EntitiesfromthreeoftheNewEnglandStates- Connecticut,Massachusetts,andRhodeIsland- jointly
issuedanRFPfromprivatedevelopersofcleanenergyandtransmission.Thethreestatesselectedprojectsthatwere,collectively,about460MW.Noneoftheprojectsincludedtransmission.
• MassachusettsLong-TermContractsforCleanEnergy– MassachusettsElectricDistributionCompanies(EDCs)enteredintolong-termcontractswithH.Q.
EnergyServicesInc.andrelatedtransmissionagreementswithCentralMainePowerCompany(CMP)inconnectionwiththeNewEnglandCleanEnergyConnect100%Hydroproject.TheMassachusettsDepartmentofPublicUtilities(DPU)approvedthelong-termcontractswithHydroQuebecEnergyServices,Inc.FERCapprovedtherelatedtransmissionagreementswithCMP.Theprojectissubjecttofurtherfederalreviewandapproval.
• Connecticut,Massachusetts,andRhodeIslandLong-TermContractsforOff-shoreWind– MassachusettsEDCsenteredintolong-termcontractswithVineyardWindLLCforan800megawatt
offshorewindgenerationproject.In2019,theDPUapprovedtheVineyardWindcontractsandsubsequentlyapprovedarequestbytheEDCstoissueanRFPsolicitingadditionaloffshorewindgeneration.
– TheRhodeIslandPublicUtilitiesCommissionhasapprovedalong-termcontractfortheRevolutionWind400megawattoffshorewindgenerationproject.
– In2018,theCTPublicUtilitiesRegulatoryAuthorityapprovedlong-termcontractsforthe200megawattRevolutionWindproject.
• ConnecticutZeroCarbonSolicitationandProcurement– ConnecticutselectedtwonuclearpowerbidsfromMillstonePowerStationandSeabrookNuclear
PowerPlant,alongwithninesolarprojectbidstotaling165MW– twoofwhicharepairedwithenergystorage– andone104MWoffshorewindprojectinasolicitationforzero-carbonelectricity-generatingresources.
**Note:Severalstateshavealreadyprocuredcleanenergyresourcesvialongtermcontractundertheseandotherexistingstateenergyprocurementauthorities** 9
ResourceAdequacyandStatePolicies
• States’long-termcontractswithresourcescapableofsupportingstatepoliciesmaynotbecountedtowardISO-NE’sFCMprocurementtarget
• RenewableTechnologyResource(RTR)ExemptionPhasing-out
• ISO-NE’s“CASPR”reformsallownewresourcessupportedbylong-termcontractstobuy-outretiringresources’capacitysupplyobligations
10
RenewableandCleanEnergyAnalysis
11
2015
Whitepaper
2017
ScenarioAnalysis
Modeling
2018
Mechanisms
Analysis
For more information,
please visit the Resource
Center at NESCOE’s Website
nescoe.com
2019-2020
Off-shoreWind
Integration
This analysis is to inform
consideration of options;
it is not a recommendation
or an expression of
preferences
EconomicStudyRequest
• ScenarioAnalysis– Increasinglevelsofincrementaloffshorewindresources
• TransmissionAnalysis– High-LevelConceptualTransmissionOverlays
– TransmissionUpgradeCostEstimates
– VariousPointsofInterconnection
• WholesaleMarketImpacts– Energy,Capacity,AncillaryServices
– PricesandAirEmissions
– AncillaryServicesRequirements
12
ScenariosRequested
MW of New Offshore Wind
By 2030
1,000
2,000
4,000
By 20355,000
7,000
• Primary location of new resources: MA or RI/MA Wind Energy Areas (WEA) on
the outer Continental Shelf
• Remaining amount of new offshore wind resources would be from a yet-to-be
determined WEA in the Gulf of Maine
13
TransmissionAnalysis Request
• IntegratenewwindresourcesatdifferentpointsofinterconnectionintoNewEnglandandestimatetransmissionupgradecostsassociatedwiththeseconceptualconfigurations
• ConsiderallreasonablepointsofinterconnectioninNewEngland,includingtheprospectofinterconnectingsouthernWEAsnorthofCapeCod
14
2019EconomicStudyAssumption
• Off-shorewindadditionswillbemodeledtocoverareasoffthecoastofRhode-IslandandSouthernMassachusettsthatareclosetotheareasthathavebeenauctionedbytheBureauofOceanEnergyManagement(BOEM)– BasedonNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)data,thosearethesiteswith
thehighestcapacityfactor
15Source:ISO-NE
ISO-NEPreliminaryAssessment
• Thetransmissionsystemwillbemodeledusing2030internaltransmission-interfacetransfercapabilities
• Basedonthecurrentlyexpectedtransmissionsystemfor2030,theISOanticipatesthatthefollowinglevelsofoff-shorewindadditions(approximately7,000MW)havethepotentialtoavoidmajoradditional345kVreinforcements*
16
Bourne/Canal/Pilgrim (MA): 2,400 MW
Brayton Point (MA): 1,600 MW
Mystic (MA): 1,200 MW
Montville (CT): 800 MWKent County/Davisville (RI): 1,000 MW
*Some 345 kV reinforcement/expansion
may still be needed for this scenario.
This anticipation is preliminary
(system impact studies have
not been completed for all of these MW).
This anticipates minimal interconnection
at nameplate levels and capacity
interconnection at intermittent capacity
values – does not anticipate all of the
MW being able to run simultaneously
at nameplate levels at all times on the system.
Possible off-shore wind additions* (MW and location)
Source:ISO-NE
2019EconomicStudyDetails
17
NESCOE
Year 2030
Gross
Demand
Energy
Efficiency
Behind-the-
Meter PV
(Nameplate)
Utility Scale
PV
(Nameplate)
Supply
(incl.
Demand
Resources)
RetirementsRFP Committed
Generation
Off-Shore
Wind
Additions
(Nameplate)
Demand from
Heat Pumps
Demand from
Electric Vehicles
Battery
Storage
Additions
NESCOE_2000
Based on 2019 CELT Forecast
2019 CELT
generators and cleared
FCA 13
resources
FCA 13 and
Mystic 8&9
NECEC (1,090 MW
of firm import)1,000 MW of off-
shore wind
(nameplate)1
1,000 MW
None
550,000 vehicles 2,000 MW
NESCOE_3000 2,000 MW
NESCOE_5000 4,000 MW
NESCOE_6000 5,000 MW2,050 MW
NESCOE_8000 7,000 MW1 Includes Vineyard Wind (800 MW) and Revolution Wind (200 MW)
• TheNESCOE_2000throughNESCOE_6000scenarioswillberunwithoutsignificantassumedtransmissionreinforcements
• TheNESCOE_8000scenariowillberunwithfourhypotheticaltransmissionreinforcements– High-levelassumptionswillbemaderegardingthelevelofincreasesintransfercapabilityprovidedbyeachassumedtransmissionreinforcement• SEMA/RIexport(assumedtransmissionreinforcements#2,#3,and#4)
• West-East/East-West(assumedtransmissionreinforcement#4)
Source:ISO-NE
2019EconomicStudy
HypotheticalTransmission• Off-shorewindadditionsabove7,000MWasshownonthepriorslidewouldrequire:
– Additionallargeunitstobeassumedretiredinareasofnewinjections;and/or
– Potentialneedforsignificanttransmissionreinforcements,asshownbelow
• TheISOwillneedtoassesstheallowablelevelofinjectionsoftheassumedtransmission
reinforcements
18
#2: 345 kV reinforcements from the
Cape to Stoughton/K. Street
#3: 345 kV reinforcements from Brayton Point
to Millbury/West Medway/West Walpole
#4: 345 kV reinforcements between
Montville and Kent County
#1: Direct injection into K
Street
Source:ISO-NE
2019EconomicStudyScenarios
19
Interconnection
Point
Bourne/Canal
/Pi lgrim Brayton Point
Kent County
/Davisvi l le Montvi l le Mystic Mi l l s tone
Assumed Major Additional
Transmiss ion Reinforcement(s ) Total MW
RSP Area SEMA SEMA RI CT Boston CT
NESCOE_2000 800 500 700 None 2000
NESCOE_3000 1,500 800 700 None 3000
NESCOE_5000 2,400 800 1,000 800 None 5000
NESCOE_6000 2,400 1,600 1,000 800 200 None 6000
NESCOE_8000_1 2,400 1,600 1,000 800 2,200 #1: Direct injection into K Street 8000
NESCOE_8000_2 3,400 1,600 1,000 800 1,200
#2: 345 kV reinforcements from the
Cape to Stoughton/K. Street 8000
NESCOE_8000_3 2,400 2,600 1,000 800 1,200
#3: 345 kV reinforcements from
Brayton Point to Mi l lbury/West
Medway/West Walpole 8000
NESCOE_8000_4 2,400 1,600 1,500 1,300 1,200
#4: 345 kV reinforcements between
Montvi l le and Kent County 8000
Anbaric_8000 3,400 1,600 1,000 800 1,200
#2: 345 kV reinforcements from the
Cape to Stoughton/K. Street 8000
Anbaric_10000
Anbaric_Sens3,400 2,600 1,500 1,300 1,200 #2, #3 and #4
10000
Anbaric_12000 3,400 2,600 1,500 1,300 2,200 1,000 #1, #2, #3 and #4 12000
Offshore wind injections dis tributed to mimic 1) awarded RFPs 2) locations of queue pos i tion requests and 3) location of assumed transmiss ion reinforcements
Signals anticipated maximum level of MW injection at the interconnection point before major additional 345 kV reinforcements are needed
Signals MW injection at the interconnection point requiring major additional 345 kV reinforcement(s )
Values shown in MW
Source:ISO-NE
nescoe.com