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SMTAI, September 24, 2003 NEMI Technology Roadmaps NEMI Technology Roadmaps What What s new for 2002? s new for 2002?

NEMI Technology Roadmaps What’s new for 2002?thor.inemi.org/webdownload/projects/ese/RM_SMTAI03.pdf · John Cartwright, Intel •Product Lifecycle Information Barbara Goldstein,

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Page 1: NEMI Technology Roadmaps What’s new for 2002?thor.inemi.org/webdownload/projects/ese/RM_SMTAI03.pdf · John Cartwright, Intel •Product Lifecycle Information Barbara Goldstein,

SMTAI, September 24, 2003

NEMI Technology Roadmaps NEMI Technology Roadmaps

WhatWhat’’s new for 2002?s new for 2002?

Page 2: NEMI Technology Roadmaps What’s new for 2002?thor.inemi.org/webdownload/projects/ese/RM_SMTAI03.pdf · John Cartwright, Intel •Product Lifecycle Information Barbara Goldstein,

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Topics to be DiscussedTopics to be Discussed

• NEMI Background

• Roadmap Process

• Key findings

• Current NEMI collaboration

• Gap analysis meetings

• Proposed changes for 2004

• Conclusion

Page 3: NEMI Technology Roadmaps What’s new for 2002?thor.inemi.org/webdownload/projects/ese/RM_SMTAI03.pdf · John Cartwright, Intel •Product Lifecycle Information Barbara Goldstein,

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SoftwareSolutions

B2B Collaboration

Marketing Design Manufacturing OrderFulfillment

Supply Chain ManagementInformation Technology

LogisticsCommunications

Business Practices

Build toOrder

Materials

ComponentsDesign

Technology

Customer

NEMI MissionNEMI Mission

Assure the Global Leadership of the North American Electronics Manufacturing Supply Chain

Equipment

MaterialsTransformation

Page 4: NEMI Technology Roadmaps What’s new for 2002?thor.inemi.org/webdownload/projects/ese/RM_SMTAI03.pdf · John Cartwright, Intel •Product Lifecycle Information Barbara Goldstein,

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What Does NEMI Do?What Does NEMI Do?

Leverage the combined Power of MemberCompanies to Provide Industry Leadership

• NEMI Roadmaps the Needs of the North AmericanElectronics Industry

• NEMI Identifies Gaps (both business & technical) inthe North American Infrastructure

• NEMI Conducts Industry Forums on Emerging Topics

• NEMI Stimulates R&D Projects to fill Gaps

• NEMI Establishes Implementation Projects toEliminate Gaps

• NEMI Stimulates Standards to speed the Introductionof New Technology & Business Practices

Page 5: NEMI Technology Roadmaps What’s new for 2002?thor.inemi.org/webdownload/projects/ese/RM_SMTAI03.pdf · John Cartwright, Intel •Product Lifecycle Information Barbara Goldstein,

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ProductNeeds

TechnologyEvolution

GAPAnalysisResearch

Projects

NEMI Implementation Cycle

NEMI Roadmap Cycle

CompetitiveSolutions

RoadmapProject

Completion

Industry SolutionNeeded

Academia

Government

NEMIUsers & Suppliers

Collaborate

No WorkRequired

Availableto Market

Place

Broad IndustryParticipation

Page 6: NEMI Technology Roadmaps What’s new for 2002?thor.inemi.org/webdownload/projects/ese/RM_SMTAI03.pdf · John Cartwright, Intel •Product Lifecycle Information Barbara Goldstein,

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Roadmap LinkagesRoadmap Linkages

Optoelectronics andOptical Storage

InterconnectSubstrates—Ceramic

InterconnectSubstrates—Organic

Magnetic and OpticalStorage

Supply ChainManagement

Displays

Semiconductors

NEMIOptoelectronics

TWG

NEMIMass Data

Storage TWG

NEMI / SIAPackaging

TWG

NEMI / IPCInterconnect

TWG

NEMI Roadmap

NEMISupply ChainManagement

TWG

Page 7: NEMI Technology Roadmaps What’s new for 2002?thor.inemi.org/webdownload/projects/ese/RM_SMTAI03.pdf · John Cartwright, Intel •Product Lifecycle Information Barbara Goldstein,

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Attributes of NEMI RoadmapAttributes of NEMI Roadmap

• The NEMI Roadmap is customer driven, nottechnology driven.

• The OEMs, through the Product Sector Champions,start the roadmapping process by presenting whatthey need to remain competitive in the world market.

• Focus of Roadmaps is on Manufacturing rather thanEnd Products.

• The Technology Working Groups (TWGs) identifygaps and showstoppers in the technology. Theymay also suggest potential solutions.

• The NEMI Technical Committee discusses thesegaps and forms Technology Integration Groups(TIGs) to address them.

Page 8: NEMI Technology Roadmaps What’s new for 2002?thor.inemi.org/webdownload/projects/ese/RM_SMTAI03.pdf · John Cartwright, Intel •Product Lifecycle Information Barbara Goldstein,

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The Drivers: Product Sector ProfilesThe Drivers: Product Sector Profiles

Product Sector

Characteristics

Consumer High volume consumer products for which cost is the primary driver

Portable Handheld, battery-powered products driven by size and weight reduction

Office Products which seek maximum performance within a few thousand dollar cost limit

Large Business

High-end products for which performance is the primary driver

Automotive/Defense

Products which must operate in extreme environments

Page 9: NEMI Technology Roadmaps What’s new for 2002?thor.inemi.org/webdownload/projects/ese/RM_SMTAI03.pdf · John Cartwright, Intel •Product Lifecycle Information Barbara Goldstein,

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Roadmap DevelopmentRoadmap Development

Product SectorsTWGs

Co

nsu

mer

Po

rtab

le

Off

ice

Au

to &

Aer

osp

ace

Lar

ge

Bu

sin

ess

Sys

tem

s

Digital Silicon Technology

Design Technologies

Manufacturing Technologies

Comp./Subsyst. Technologies

Modeling, Thermal, etc.

Board Assy, Test, etc.

Packaging, Substrates, Displays, etc.

Product Sector Needs Vs. Technology Evolution

Business Processes Prod Lifecycle Information Mgmt.

Page 10: NEMI Technology Roadmaps What’s new for 2002?thor.inemi.org/webdownload/projects/ese/RM_SMTAI03.pdf · John Cartwright, Intel •Product Lifecycle Information Barbara Goldstein,

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2002 Product Sector Champions2002 Product Sector Champions

Product Sector Chair Co-Chair

Automotive Products Aerospace/Defense Products

D.H.R. Sarma, Delphi William E. Murphy, Imco

Jim Spall, Delphi

Consumer Products John Thome, Consultant

Portable Products John Thome Kingshuk Banerji, Motorola

Office System Products

Terry Dishongh, Intel

Joshua Moody, HP

Large Business System Products

Evan Davidson, IBM

Scott Mitchell, Sun

Page 11: NEMI Technology Roadmaps What’s new for 2002?thor.inemi.org/webdownload/projects/ese/RM_SMTAI03.pdf · John Cartwright, Intel •Product Lifecycle Information Barbara Goldstein,

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2002 Roadmap Input & Coverage2002 Roadmap Input & Coverage

• Developed by >350 individuals from 170organizations (including non-member companies)

• Covers 18 technology, business practice andinfrastructure topics in the areas of:– Semiconductor technology

– Business processes/technology

– Design technologies

– Manufacturing technologies

– Component subsystem technologies

Page 12: NEMI Technology Roadmaps What’s new for 2002?thor.inemi.org/webdownload/projects/ese/RM_SMTAI03.pdf · John Cartwright, Intel •Product Lifecycle Information Barbara Goldstein,

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Roadmap Structure - 18Roadmap Structure - 18 TWGs TWGs

Semiconductor Technology Digital Silicon Technology

Business Processes/TechnologiesProduct Lifecycle Information Management

Design Technologies Modeling, Simulation, and Design Tools Thermal Management Environmentally Conscious ElectronicsManufacturing Technologies

Board AssemblyTest, Inspection, and MeasurementFinal Assembly

Component/Subsystem Technologies Connectors

PackagingInterconnection Substrates - OrganicInterconnection Substrates - CeramicPassive ComponentsRF ComponentsOptoelectronicsDisplaysMass Data StorageEnergy Storage Systems

Page 13: NEMI Technology Roadmaps What’s new for 2002?thor.inemi.org/webdownload/projects/ese/RM_SMTAI03.pdf · John Cartwright, Intel •Product Lifecycle Information Barbara Goldstein,

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2002 TWG Structure2002 TWG Structure

John Cartwright, Intel

Barbara Goldstein, NIST•Product Lifecycle InformationManagement

Mark Newton, AppleRobert C. Pfahl,Motorola

•Environmentally consciousmanagement

Yogendra Joshi, GITRichard C. Chu, IBM•Thermal management

Dr. KoneruRamakrishna, Mot.

Dr. Sanjeev Sathe, IBM•Modeling, simulation & design tools

Design Technologies

Ben Poole, Sanmina-SCI

Business Processes/Technologies

Alan K. Allan, IntelPaolo Gargini, Intel•Digital Silicon Technology

Co-ChairChairSemiconductor Technology

Page 14: NEMI Technology Roadmaps What’s new for 2002?thor.inemi.org/webdownload/projects/ese/RM_SMTAI03.pdf · John Cartwright, Intel •Product Lifecycle Information Barbara Goldstein,

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2002 TWG Structure (cont.)2002 TWG Structure (cont.)

Dan Doughty, Sandia Labs• Energy Storage Systems

John MacWilliams, Consultant• Connectors

Roger F. Hoyt, IBMTom Coughlin, Consultant• Mass data storage

Dr. Norman Bardsley, USDCM. Robert Pinnel, USDC• Displays

Dr. Laura Turbini, CMAPJohn Stafford, Consultant• Optoelectronics

J. Stevenson Kenney, GITDr. V.J. Nair, Motorola• RF components

Dr. Joseph Dougherty, PSULarry Marcanti, Nortel• Passive components

Dr. Wayne Johnson, AuburnHoward Imhoff, Midas Vision• Interconnect subs – ceramic

Dieter Bergman, IPCJohn T. Fisher, NEMI• Interconnect subs – organic

Bill Bottoms, 3MT Solu.Joseph Adam, Skyworks• Packaging

Component/Subsystem Technologies

Dr. Reijo Tuokko, Tampere U.Mike Reagin, Delphi Delco• Final assembly

David Doyle, OrbotechMichael J. Smith, Teradyne• Test, inspection &measurement

Kirk VanDreel, Plexus

Alex Chen, Celestica

• Board Assembly

Co-ChairChairManufacturing Technology

Page 15: NEMI Technology Roadmaps What’s new for 2002?thor.inemi.org/webdownload/projects/ese/RM_SMTAI03.pdf · John Cartwright, Intel •Product Lifecycle Information Barbara Goldstein,

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Highlights of 2002 NEMI RoadmapHighlights of 2002 NEMI Roadmap

• Produced the first NEMI Roadmap on Electronic Connectors.

• Provided extended Situation Analysis/Benchmarking Reports on:– RF Components

– Optoelectronics

– Displays

– Mass Data Storage

– Energy Storage Systems

– Connectors

– Modeling, Simulation and Design Tools.

• Expanded emphasis on identifying market needs and businesssituation throughout roadmap.

• Combined three existing TWGs into a new TWG (PLIM - ProductLifecycle Information Management) to facilitate identification andintegration of business and technology needs.

• Maintained strong linkages with other Technology roadmaps.

• Strengthened validation of predictions by 2000 NEMI Roadmap.

Page 16: NEMI Technology Roadmaps What’s new for 2002?thor.inemi.org/webdownload/projects/ese/RM_SMTAI03.pdf · John Cartwright, Intel •Product Lifecycle Information Barbara Goldstein,

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Table 6. Cellular handset: Key Attribute NeedsTable 6. Cellular handset: Key Attribute Needs

Table 6. Cellular handset: Key Attribute Needs!

Parameter Metric 2003 2005 2007 2013

RF section cost (for a given function) Relative to costs in2000

0.7 0.35 0.17 0.05

Number of freq bands 2 4 6 6

Number of Antennas (Diversity) 1 2 2 3

Number of Modulation formats 2 4 5 5

Data transmission rate (peak)? kb/s 14 160 1500 11,000

Transmit Peak-to-Average Ratio (worst) dB 4 dB 5 dB 5 dB 4 dB

Talk time minutes 90 120 160 200

Battery Voltage V 3.3 2.7 1.5 1.2

RF section area mm2 1800 1200 800 500

RF component thickness mm 2.5 1.5 1.5.MEMs 1.0,MEMS

From Portable emulator:

Average Component I/O Density I/O per cm2 70 80 100 140

Max Component I/O Density** I/O per cm2 280 320 350 450

I/O per Component, avg. # 3.6 4.0 4.4 5.0

Package I/O Pitch (Perimeter) mm 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Package I/O Pitch (Area array) mm 0.5 0.4 0.25 0.2

Max I/O per package I/O per pkg 256 288 312 360

Flip Chip I/O Pitch (Area) mm 0.25 0.25 0.20 0.10

Substrate Lines and Spaces microns 60 35 30 20

!

Page 17: NEMI Technology Roadmaps What’s new for 2002?thor.inemi.org/webdownload/projects/ese/RM_SMTAI03.pdf · John Cartwright, Intel •Product Lifecycle Information Barbara Goldstein,

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Situation Analysis-BusinessSituation Analysis-Business

• Market downturn since mid-2000 has greatly impactedforecasted growth projections in the 2000 roadmap.

• Business models across the electronics industrycontinue to change, leading to significant shifts in rolesand responsibilities across the supply chain.

• As in the last NEMI Roadmap, supply chain managementoffers the greatest potential for increasing productivity.

• Manufacturing ramp-ups continue to accelerate in theportable and consumer segments.

• There has been a movement of manufacturing to Chinafrom both North America and Southeast Asia: a low-cost, highly skilled workforce, and a massive marketopportunity.

Page 18: NEMI Technology Roadmaps What’s new for 2002?thor.inemi.org/webdownload/projects/ese/RM_SMTAI03.pdf · John Cartwright, Intel •Product Lifecycle Information Barbara Goldstein,

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Opto Forecast For Capital SpendingOpto Forecast For Capital Spending

Page 19: NEMI Technology Roadmaps What’s new for 2002?thor.inemi.org/webdownload/projects/ese/RM_SMTAI03.pdf · John Cartwright, Intel •Product Lifecycle Information Barbara Goldstein,

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Direct Materials SourcingStrategic SourcingComponent & Supplier ManagementRFx ManagementChange Management

Product Data Management

Product Portfolio ManagementNPDI Intelligence

Program ManagementProject Management

Reporting

Product Data PublishingService Parts PlanningConfiguration Management

Product Structure (BOM)Document ManagementEngineering Change Mgt

Collaboration

Collaborative Product DesignProduct Design ToolsProcess Engineering

VisualizationCAD-to-CAD integration

Customer Needs ManagementRequirements Management

Preference AnalyticsETO/BTO/DTO

Data Flows

ERP

CRM

ERPSCMCRM

Product Lifecycle Management

ERP

PLIM As Depicted By AMR ResearchPLIM As Depicted By AMR Research

Page 20: NEMI Technology Roadmaps What’s new for 2002?thor.inemi.org/webdownload/projects/ese/RM_SMTAI03.pdf · John Cartwright, Intel •Product Lifecycle Information Barbara Goldstein,

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Situation Analysis-RegulatorySituation Analysis-Regulatory

• Environmental legislation in various productsegments will require the electronics industry toshare detailed material content data of theirproducts and components.

• To meet regional legislative requirements,manufacturers must remove environmental“Materials of Concern,” such as lead, mercury,bromine and cadmium.

• Globally, the electronics industry is facing end-of-life or producer responsibility legislation.

Page 21: NEMI Technology Roadmaps What’s new for 2002?thor.inemi.org/webdownload/projects/ese/RM_SMTAI03.pdf · John Cartwright, Intel •Product Lifecycle Information Barbara Goldstein,

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Table 2: Table 2: Restricted Materials TemplateRestricted Materials Template

!

Electronic Assembly(component,laminate,interconnect)!

Mechanical Assembly(plastic, metallichousings)

Other(Battery, backlight,cables, packaging,etc.)

!NorthAmerica

AsiaNorthAmerica Asia

NorthAmerica Asia

Pb !2006 ’00-'05

!20068 !

2002 Pre-’02!

Cd !2006

! !Pre-’02

! !Pre-’02

!

Hg ’02-’06 2006!

’02-’06 20068 !’02-’06 Pre-’02

!

Sb ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

Cr(VI) !20068 ! !

20068 ! !Pre-’0211 !

OrganicBr/Cl

!20068 ’00-’05

! Pre-’0220068

! !20068 !

Europe EuropeEurope

Page 22: NEMI Technology Roadmaps What’s new for 2002?thor.inemi.org/webdownload/projects/ese/RM_SMTAI03.pdf · John Cartwright, Intel •Product Lifecycle Information Barbara Goldstein,

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Situation Analysis-MarketSituation Analysis-Market

• The use of Cell Phones for web access is forecasted toexceed the use of personal computers for web access by2005-6.

• PC growth is forecasted to be low/stalled through 2003.

• The LCD industry will invest $40B in manufacturingcapacity for displays over the next several years to keepup with demand.

• Wireless networking and automotive entertainment areemerging as volume drivers.

• Wireless networking will grow to 2B units by 2006-2007.

Page 23: NEMI Technology Roadmaps What’s new for 2002?thor.inemi.org/webdownload/projects/ese/RM_SMTAI03.pdf · John Cartwright, Intel •Product Lifecycle Information Barbara Goldstein,

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Situation Analysis-TechnologySituation Analysis-Technology

• Growth in silicon device size is slowing, and the rate ofreduction in feature size will resume its historic three-yearcycle.

• LCD and plasma displays are starting to encroach on theCRT market.

• MEMS technology is making new capabilities feasible suchas: displays; servo control for mass data storage, opticalswitches, laser tuning; RF components, passives; andmicro-batteries.

• System in Package (SiP) has emerged as the fastestgrowing packaging technology - although still representinga relatively small percentage of the unit volume.

Page 24: NEMI Technology Roadmaps What’s new for 2002?thor.inemi.org/webdownload/projects/ese/RM_SMTAI03.pdf · John Cartwright, Intel •Product Lifecycle Information Barbara Goldstein,

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Identified Needs-Integrated DesignIdentified Needs-Integrated Design

• The extension of Moore’s Law beyond 2005 will require newpackaging technologies to reduce the cost of packaging.

• DfX areas need greater attention (e.g. Design for supply chainoptimization).

• Co-design of mechanical, thermal, rf, and electrical performanceof the entire chip, package, and system is a key cross-cuttingneed.

• Increased capability of design tools to handle technologiessuch as microvia and embedded passives.

• Improved communication between CAD designers and CAMusers in the distributed design/manufacturing environment.

• Simulation tools are needed by 2005 for optoelectronics andnano-electronics.

Page 25: NEMI Technology Roadmaps What’s new for 2002?thor.inemi.org/webdownload/projects/ese/RM_SMTAI03.pdf · John Cartwright, Intel •Product Lifecycle Information Barbara Goldstein,

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Identified Needs-Environmental/RegulatoryIdentified Needs-Environmental/Regulatory

• New materials, components, and processes needto be developed, qualified, and introduced in2003-2006 to enhance recycleability, improveenergy efficiency, and reduce ecological impact.

• New efficient methods need to be developed andimplemented for data exchange of environmentalattributes. Clearly an area where industrystandard solutions are needed.

Page 26: NEMI Technology Roadmaps What’s new for 2002?thor.inemi.org/webdownload/projects/ese/RM_SMTAI03.pdf · John Cartwright, Intel •Product Lifecycle Information Barbara Goldstein,

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Identified Needs- Manufacturing TechnologiesIdentified Needs- Manufacturing Technologies

• Board assembly will be challenged with providingmaterial control and identification standardsduring the transition between lead-free andeutectic materials and throughout the product lifecycle.

• For board assembly of optoelectronics to becompetitive in North America, it is important todevelop low-temperature soldering andautomated fiber handling and assembly.

• Cost improvements are needed to make flexibleautomation viable for all manufacturing.

Page 27: NEMI Technology Roadmaps What’s new for 2002?thor.inemi.org/webdownload/projects/ese/RM_SMTAI03.pdf · John Cartwright, Intel •Product Lifecycle Information Barbara Goldstein,

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Table 1: Board Assembly - Conversion CostsTable 1: Board Assembly - Conversion CostsSummarySummary

First Year of Significant Production 2001 2003 2005 2007 2010 2013 2016!

!Parameter Metric

Cost

! !Automotive and Aerospace Products ¢÷I/O 2000 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.5

! !

! ! ! !2002

!2.0 1.8 1.6

!1.6

! !

! !Consumer Products ¢÷I/O 2000 0.6 0.5 0.4 ! 0.22

! !

! ! ! !2002

!0.4 .35 0.3 0.2 0.15

! !

! !Portable Products ¢÷I/O 2000 0.65 0.5 .45

!0.3

! !

! ! ! !2002

!0.5 .45 0.40 0.3 0.3

! !

! !Office Systems Products ¢÷I/O 2000 0.32 0.29 .26

!0.19

! !

! ! ! !2002

!0.28 .25 0.23

! ! ! !

! !Business System Products ¢÷I/O 2000 1.0 0.8 .75

! !0.65

!

! ! ! !2002

!0.8 .75 0.7 0.65 0.6 0.55

!

!

Page 28: NEMI Technology Roadmaps What’s new for 2002?thor.inemi.org/webdownload/projects/ese/RM_SMTAI03.pdf · John Cartwright, Intel •Product Lifecycle Information Barbara Goldstein,

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Identified Needs- Component/SubsystemIdentified Needs- Component/SubsystemTechnologiesTechnologies

• In-circuit test technologies that can be incorporated into thebuild process.

• Industry standards, design guidelines and tools for ceramicinterconnection substrates.

• Assembly processes and equipment that support integratingelectronics and optics into single packages.

• Improved optoelectronic subcomponents and materials thatallow automation will be the key to expanding the market.

• Low cost high volume optical connectors to expand opticalbroadband communications to the board and componentlevel.

Page 29: NEMI Technology Roadmaps What’s new for 2002?thor.inemi.org/webdownload/projects/ese/RM_SMTAI03.pdf · John Cartwright, Intel •Product Lifecycle Information Barbara Goldstein,

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Paradigm ShiftsParadigm Shifts

• The convergence of broadband communicationsand digital technology has increased productopportunities while creating uncertainty inmarketing

• System in Package modules (ex. Bluetooth, WiFi(802.11b,a,g) and GSM (Global System for MobileCommunication )) is speeding the design of newportable and office system products and reducingrisk to the OEM.

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Comparison of Popular Wireless DataComparison of Popular Wireless DataCommunications StandardsCommunications Standards

! Bluetooth 802.11b 802.11a

Frequency 2.4GHz 2.4GHz 5GHz

Maximum Data Rate 1Mb/s 11Mb/s 54Mb/s

Maximum Power 100mW 100mW 50mW (5.15-5.25GHz)250mW (5.25-5.35GHz)1W (5.725-5.825GHz)

Modulation GFSK QPSK OFDM (64QAM)

GFSK (Gaussion Phase Shift Keying), QPSK (Quadrature Phase Shift Keying), OFDM (OrthogonalFrequency Division Multiplexing)

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Wireless Data Standards ComparisonWireless Data Standards Comparison

Fixed PointWireless LAN

Streaming Video

802.11a

Wireless Consumer DataCommunications Market

10kb/s 100kb/s 1Mb/s 10Mb/s 100Mb/s

802.11b

Bluetooth

COST

KeyboardsMice

Phone Line ModemsRF ID

TelemetryMeter Reading

…..

Computer CableReplacements

Mobile DataFixed Point

Wireless LANStreaming Video

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Strategic ConcernsStrategic Concerns

• EMS companies are being asked to provide R&Dleadership while keeping their overhead functionslow. This desire requires close collaboration withinthe Supply Chain.

• Rapid improvement in the productivity of design, test,and modeling software is becoming critical in DigitalSilicon, Packaging, Board Assembly, Modeling andSimulation, and Thermal Management.

• The China market and labor center is so large andunique that it must be addressed by OEMs, EMSproviders, and their suppliers.

• Business issues are as important as technologyneeds.

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ProductNeeds

TechnologyEvolution

GAPAnalysisResearch

Projects

NEMI Implementation Cycle

NEMI Roadmap Cycle

CompetitiveSolutions

RoadmapProject

Completion

Industry SolutionNeeded

Academia

Government

NEMIUsers & Suppliers

Collaborate

No WorkRequired

Availableto Market

Place

Broad IndustryParticipation

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Technology Integration Groups (TIGs)Technology Integration Groups (TIGs)

Co-Directors of Planning: Leslie Guth, LucentTechnologies; Srinivas Rao, Solectron

• Board Assembly– Chair: Tom Pearson, Intel– Co-Chair: Aichyun Shiah, PhD, Solectron

• Substrates– Chair: Hamid Azimi, Intel– Co-Chair: Jack Fisher, IPC

• Environmentally Conscious Electronics– Chair: Rick Charbonneau, StorageTek

• Factory Information Systems– Co-Chairs: John Cartwright, Intel

Barbara Goldstein, NIST• Optoelectronics

– Chair: Alan Rae, PhD, Cookson Electronics– Co-Chair: Peter Arrowsmith, PhD, Solectron

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SoftwareSolutions

B2B Collaboration

Materials

ComponentsDesign

Technology

MaterialsTransformation

Substrates TIGProjects:

• High Frequency HDI Materials• Advanced Embedded Passive Technology

(managed by NCMS)• Integral Passives Testing

Board Assembly TIGProjects:

• Test Strategy• Fiber Optic Splice Improvement• DPMO• Optoelectronics Solder Automation• Flip Chip & CSP Underfill

Factory Information Systems TIGProjects:

• Virtual Factory Information Interchange- Product Data Exchange (PDX) Standards

• Data Exchange Convergence Project- Technical Structure- Industry Adoption

Optoelectronics TIGProjects:

• Fiber Handling Processes• Fiber Optic Signal Performance• Optoelectronics for Substrates

Environmentally Conscious Electronics TIGProjects:

• Lead-Free Assembly• Tin Whiskers HAST• Tin Whisker Modeling• Lead-Free Hybrid Assembly & Rework

Business Leadership Team:

• Perfect Bill of Materials (BoM)• Engineering Collaboration

Build toOrder

Equipment

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Addressing the identified Gaps:Addressing the identified Gaps:2003 GAP Analysis Meetings2003 GAP Analysis Meetings

Alan RaeOMI, Ottawa3:00 - 5:005/1/2003Optoelectronics

Jim McElroyAPEX1:30 - 5:304/2/2002PLIM-Business Initiatives

Hamid AzimiAPEX3:15 - 5:153/31/2002Interconnect Substrates

Paul WilliamsAPEX3:15 - 5:153/31/2002Board Assembly

RickCharbonneau

Santa Clara,CA7:30 - 12:003/7/2003Environment (ECE)

LEADERLOCATIONTIMEDATETWG

2003 NEMI Gap Analysis Meetings

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Bottom LineBottom Line

• Today’s business metrics are the new reality– Learn to be profitable at these levels

vs.

– Continued red ink while waiting for upturn

• Growth of Electronics Mfg. in China is explosive– Today 7.5% of Electronics assembly in PRC

– Projected to be 35% by 2020 (Prismark Partners)

– Americas expected to shrink from 39.7% to 28%

• Component & equipment companies areresponding with varied approaches– Leadership

– Survival

– “Deer in the Headlights”

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Bottom LineBottom Line

• Innovative new products continue to driveindustry, but

• “Time to Commodity” is shrinking

• As rate of technology advancement slows, abilityto wring out cost can improve profitability (e.g.mass storage segment)

• Design as well as manufacturing is becomingmore distributed making collaboration and supplychain orchestration more challenging

• Industry collaboration through groups such asIPC and NEMI are an effective way to deal with thefuture.

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2004 NEMI Roadmap Changes & Goals 2004 NEMI Roadmap Changes & Goals

• Work more closely with the ITRS.

• Maintain strong linkages with other technology roadmaps.

• Strengthen Emulators by:– Separating Automotive and Defense

– Reviewing Key attribute Charts and making needed changes

– Change designation to Product Emulator Groups (PEGs)

– Expanding PEG participation utilizing T.C. input

– Completing Chapters for T.C. review at APEX 2004

– Add new Medical and SIP PEGs

• Only provide charted differences in Emulator predictions between 2002 and 2004.

• Move FIS area to Board Assembly TWG from PLIM.

• Move Embedded Passives to Substrate TWG from Passives TWG.

• Expand emphasis on identifying market needs and business situation throughoutroadmap.

• Clearly identify gaps and R&D needs in all TWG chapters.

• Complete Cross Cut issues earlier in the process.

• Limit Executive Summary to 35 pages.

• Limit Chapters to 50 pages.

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Proposed 2004 Product Emulator DescriptionsProposed 2004 Product Emulator Descriptions

Emulators Characteristics

Portable / Consumer High volume Consumer Products for which cost is the primary driver including Hand held, battery -powered products driven by size and weight reduction

System in a Package Complete function provided in a packag e to system manufacturer

Office Systems / Large Business Systems

Products which seek maximum performance from a few thousand dollar cost limit to literally no cost limit

Network / Datacom / Telecom Products

Products that serve the networking, datacom and telecom markets and cover a wide range of cost and performance targets

Specialty Emulators Defined by Operating Environment

Medical Products Products which must operate within a high reliability environment

Automotive Products which must operate in an automotiv e environment

Defense and Aerospace Products which must operate in extreme environments

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2004 Roadmap Structure - 18 TWGs2004 Roadmap Structure - 18 TWGs

Business Processes/TechnologiesProduct Lifecycle Information Management

Design TechnologiesModeling, Simulation, and Design ToolsThermal ManagementEnvironmentally Conscious Electronics

Manufacturing TechnologiesBoard AssemblyTest, Inspection, and MeasurementFinal Assembly

Component/Subsystem Technologies Digital Silicon Technology

ConnectorsPackagingInterconnection Substrates - OrganicInterconnection Substrates - CeramicPassive ComponentsRF ComponentsOptoelectronicsDisplaysMass Data StorageEnergy Storage Systems

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Why do Companies Participate in NEMIWhy do Companies Participate in NEMIRoadmap Activities?Roadmap Activities?

• Excellent opportunity to “test the NEMIcollaboration waters” without committing tomembership

• The experience leads to a better understanding ofthe “state of the art” in those areas ofparticipation

• Early access to the roadmap chapter’s technicaland business information for the participatingcompany

• Opportunity to shape the industry’s futurepriorities concerning R&D

• Opportunity to impact NEMI’s future directionthrough “technology gap” identification andsolutions most important to your company

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Why do Companies Participate in NEMIWhy do Companies Participate in NEMIRoadmap Activities? (continued)Roadmap Activities? (continued)

• Those who participate in the Roadmap creationget a broad view of the supply chain landscapefrom customers, competitors, and suppliers

• Roadmaps can become “self fulfillingprophecies” as many within Industry focus on theidentified challenges and benchmark theircompany against the user needs

• As General Dwight D. Eisenhower was fond ofsaying, “It’s not the Plan (that is created) but thePlanning (process) that provides maximuminsight”