Notre Dame Season Preview 2015

Key Facts:

Offense:

Depth Issues in Backfield?

If everything goes as planned this season, the offseason losses of quarterback Everett

Golson and running back Greg Bryant will have minimal effect on the offense. After all, in the

most recent Notre Dame game, Golson and Bryant were the backup quarterback and the third

string running back, respectively. That being said, if injury or ineffectiveness strikes the back-

field, the offense could quickly find itself out of options. Zaire is now the only quarterback on the

team with any game experience; he has two talented backups in DeShone Kizer and Brandon

Wimbush, who were both highly touted signings out of high school but neither possesses any

college game experience. Similarly, at running back, an injury to starter Tarean Folston could

prove catastrophic. Behind Folston is converted slot receiver C.J. Prosise, a great talent who

2014 Record: 8-5

2014 Final F/+ Ranking (Football Outsiders): 34

Returning Starters: 7 offense, 10 defense

Five Year Recruiting Ranking (247Sports’ Com-posite): 9

Records last five years: 8-5, 8-5, 12-1, 9-4, 8-5

Program F/+ (Football Outsiders): 14

flashed his ability with a huge 50 yard TD run in the Music City Bowl but is not considered an

every down back. If either Folston or Prosise suffers injury or fails to live up to his billing, the

Irish will be forced to play newly converted wide receiver Justin Brent or one of two true fresh-

man at running back. That being said, the backfield is still stocked with talent. Malik Zaire is the

best running quarterback of the Brian Kelly era, and with his ability to run the read option the of-

fense could be the most productive of the last five years. Zaire lacks the accuracy of Everett

Golson on short throws, but as he showed in the spring game he does not lack for arm strength,

and a full fall of first team reps should help him improve as a passer. Tarean Folston lacks game

breaking speed but has averaged an efficient 5.2 yards per carry over his first two years and is

a reliable option. C.J. Prosise does have game breaking speed and could represent a much

needed home run threat in the backfield. Together with the offensive line, Zaire, Folston, and

Prosise have a chance to create a rushing attack that is both efficient and explosive.

Offensive Line Must Preform

The majority of 2014 was a letdown from an offensive line standpoint, as the line ranked

30th in adjusted sack rate and 32nd in adjusted line years

(http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaaol). With the talent on hand, it was expected

that the line would preform better, and while it struggled to reach lofty expectations in the regu-

lar season, it exceeded them in the bowl game, as the team rushed for 263 yards on 5.2 yards

per attempt against a talented SEC opponent. This year the line loses Christian Lombard, Matt

Hegarty, and Connor Hanratty, but brings back star left tackle Ronnie Stanley and center Nick

Martin as returning starters. Along with Steve Elmer Jr, Mick McGlinchey, and Quenton Nelson,

the line looks to be stocked with talent despite the personnel losses. If the offense moves to a

more run based attack as expected, the line will be expected to repeat its performance in the

bowl game week after week. If the line establishes itself as one of the best in the country the of-

fense should have no problem becoming an efficient attack. However, if the line struggles the

entire offense will ground to halt. The development of the offensive line might be even more im-

portant than the development of Zaire as a quarterback, because if the line opens up running

opportunities consistently Zaire won’t need to win games with his arm.

Depth, Talent at Wide Receiver

Wide receiver figures to be the position most set up for success on the offense. Star re-

ceiver Will Fuller figures to compete for the Biletnikoff Award this season and has talent both as

a possession receiver and a deep threat. He has averaged 15.3 yards per catch for his career

and last year emerged as the star of the unit following Davaris Daniel’s dismissal. With 15

touchdowns last year including a long touchdown catch of 75 yards Fuller will be expected to act

as the standard bearer for the unit. Chris Brown is a senior who lacks the top notch ability of

Fuller but is a solid number two option who could have his most productive season yet. The slot

position also looks set, as fifth year senior Amir Carlisle has talent to add and sophomore Torri

Hunter Jr. provides a nice depth option. At tight end it appears the starter will be Durham

Smythe, who will be expected to do nothing less than carry on the recent tradition of great Notre

Dame tight ends, four of whom have been taken in the first or second round of the draft since

2008. This unit is chalk full of four and five star recruits and returns all major contributors outside

of Ben Koyack. It should be one of the best units on the entire team.

Defense:

Comeback Year for Defensive Line

Last year’s defense allowed 171 rush yards per game, ranked 70th in rushing S&P+,

and ranked 64th in defensive success rate (Football Outsiders). In other words, it was easy for

opponents, especially in the second half of the season, to maintain an efficient offense and stay

on schedule just by utilizing their run game. The issues in rush defense began with the defen-

sive line. Despite lots of talent in the top group, including Sheldon Day, the line was plagued by

injuries and a lack of quality depth as the line surrendered 251 rushing yards per game over the

last 6 games of the season. For Notre Dame’s defense as a whole to improve in 2015, the line

must start living up to its recruiting rankings and control the line of scrimmage. With only 26

sacks in 2014, the line must also be able to generate more consistent pressure on the quarter-

back. DE Andrew Trumbetti, who played in 12 of 13 games as a freshman and flashed signs of

brilliance, should be much improved after a full year in the program. Trumbetti and Day, who will

play both tackle and end, will be relied upon to generate quarterback pressure, while nose

tackle Jarron Jones and backup Daniel Cage will be relied upon to plug up the middle of the

line. With everyone in the two deep returning except Just Utupo, the defensive line should im-

prove considerably in 2015.

Linebackers Should Continue Success

Last year’s season ending injury to MLB Joe Schmidt proved to be the turning point in

the Irish season, as the defense fell apart without his vocal leadership over the last four games

of the season. The team recognized his value when they voted him team MVP, but Schmidt is

not the most talented player on the team, or even the defense. That honor belongs to Jaylon

Smith, a junior who has a chance to be a top pick in the NFL draft and is the heir apparent to

Manti Te'o as the anchor of the Notre Dame defense. Smith has started since his first day on

campus, and set an ND record with 63 tackles as a freshman in 2013. Last year Smith was the

only thing holding the ravaged defense together, as he recorded 112 tackles, including 65 solo

tackles. He also led the Irish with 9 tackles for loss and tied for second with 3.5 sacks. With

Smith, Schmidt, Nyles Morgan, James Onwalu, and Jarret Grace all returning Notre Dame has

an embarrassment of riches at the linebacker position. Defensive Coordinator Brian Van-

Gorder’s biggest problem may be where to play everybody, as Smith, Schmidt, and Morgan all

played on the inside last year. However he decides to arrange the players the linebackers

should be the emotional heart of the defense and should preform as one of the best linebacker

units in the country.

Secondary Welcomes Back Star

The worst news to come out of the summer of 2014 was the suspension of KeiVarae

Russell. The star cornerback was slated to be a top performer on the 2014 team and was ex-

pected by coaches to be one of the best cornerbacks in the country. Instead the team was

forced to start Cole Luke and Devin Butler at the cornerback positions. Butler struggled the en-

tire year, but Cole Luke was a revelation, and this year the cornerback position looks to be

stronger than ever. With the return of Russell and the ability of Luke, Notre Dame has two shut-

down cornerbacks for the first time in the Kelly era. The two starting corners can both be trusted

to guard receivers one-on-one, which will give VanGorder increased flexibility to position

safeties wherever he wants without worrying about leaving his cornerbacks on an island. Speak-

ing of safeties, the team looks for improved performance from experienced safeties Elijah Shu-

mate and Max Redfield. If safety play improves to a level on par with the cornerback play Notre

Dame should have one of the best secondaries in the country.

Special Teams

Despite his reputation as an unreliable field goal kicker and his disastrous November,

Kyle Brindza was a force in field position, averaging 41.5 yards per punt and generating touch-

backs on 65% of his kickoffs. With Brindza lost to graduation, Notre Dame looks to redshirt

freshman Tyler Newsome and true freshman Justin Yoon to replace his production on punts and

in the kicking game, respectively. The two players are relative unknowns as they have yet to

play in college, but the coaching staff has recruited well at these positions and the freshman will

be expected to contribute. In the return game the loss of Greg Bryant to academic suspension

for the season will hurt, but any of the talented and young wide receivers can step in to help Will

Fuller and Amir Carlisle.

Schedule Factors

2015 ScheduleDate Opponent Proj F/+ Rank

Sep 5 Texas 43

Sep 12 @ Virginia 57

Sep 19 Georgia Tech 17

Sep 26 Massachusetts 111

Oct 3 @ Clemson 18

Oct 10 Navy 58

Oct 17 USC 12

Oct 31 @ Temple 55

Nov 7 @ Pittsburgh 40

Nov 14 Wake Forest 90

Nov 21 Boston College* 60

Nov 28 @ Stanford 10

*Shamrock Series game in Fenway Park

Overall, this presents as a very manageable schedule for the Irish. The key to the sea-

son will be the three week stretch of playing at Clemson, home to Navy, and home to USC. The

Clemson game will be played in the harshest environment the team will encounter this season,

and Clemson rates as an ACC favorite with a possible Heisman contender in quarterback De-

shaun Watson. The Navy game should be an easy win based on talent, but the Irish have strug-

gled with Navy the past two years and struggled even more with the game after Navy (28-21

loss to Pittsburgh in 2013, 55-31 loss to Arizona State in 2014). This year there will be no time

for a post-Navy hangover as the Irish take on rival USC in the biggest game of the season. If

Notre Dame makes it to the post-USC bye week with zero or one losses they will be in prime

contention for a playoff bid. Other obvious pitfalls include Georgia Tech (who runs Navy’s diffi-

cult offense with even better personnel) and a season ending trip to Stanford. Between Georgia

Tech, Clemson, USC, and Stanford, the Irish play two of the favorites in both the Pac-12 and

ACC, so there shouldn’t be concerns with the schedule’s ability to impress the playoff commit-

tee.

Season Projection

The five years of Brian Kelly’s tenure have consisted of increasing amounts of promise,

improved recruiting of talent, and mostly stagnant results on the field. Despite recruiting signifi-

cantly better talent than Charlie Weis, Kelly has managed to significantly improve upon his first

year record (achieved with Weis’s players) of 8-5 only once since, a 12-0 regular season in

2012. That was the best season the program has had since Lou Holtz, but it has proven to be

more of an outlier than a harbinger of consistent success. This year, for the first time since that

2012 season, there are no significant excuses for the Irish to not win at least 9 games in the

regular season. Everett Gloson did transfer, but Malik Zaire is 3 years into the program and

should be able to capably step in and run the offense. The only other significant loss was Greg

Bryant (academic suspension), but he was not projected to be a starter. With 17 starters return-

ing, including basically an entire starting defense, this may be the year that we figure out the

ceiling of this program under Brian Kelly, for better or worse. Notre Dame has had talent in the

program for years, and this is the year that the coaching staff must demonstrate that that talent

is being properly developed and that their great recruiting can translate into on field success.

That being said, another 4 or 5 loss season would be an unqualified disaster. Brian Kelly was

brought in to achieve a consistent level of success higher than 4 loss seasons. Notre Dame

should be seriously competing for the playoff year in and year out, and the team is not going to

get much more talented or experienced than this. I think a 10 win season is the most likely out-

come, with the most likely losses to Georgia Tech and Stanford. A 10-2 season and a big 6 bowl

would not be as good as reaching the playoffs, but it would demonstrate a healthy program and

set up a big 2016 season. An 11-1 or 12-0 season is as likely as an 8-4 or 9-3 season depend-

ing on the team’s luck with turnovers and injuries. A playoff season would be absolutely huge for

the program by validating the past 5 seasons of Brian Kelly’s tenure and demonstrating Notre

Dame’s ability to remain nationally relevant. An 8-4 season would be equally devastating for the

program. It would call into question Kelly’s ability to coach the team to success, it would push us

further out of the national consciousness and harm recruiting, and it would lead to another off-

season of questions and turmoil in 2016. At this point in the program’s development it is fair for

the fan base to expect playoff contention, at the very least big 6 bowls. It is up to Brian Kelly to

deliver on those expectations.