NCDS and BCS70: The 1958 and 1970

National Birth Cohort Studies

Heather JoshiCentre for Longitudinal Studies

Institute of Education, London Universitywww.cls.ioe.ac.uk/cohorts

NCDS Follow-ups

NCDS Follow-ups and sources of information 1958-2000

PMS NCDS1 NCDS2 NCDS3 EXAMS NCDS4 NCDS5 NCDS6 (1958) (1965) (1969) (1974) (1978) (1981) (1991) (2000) Birth 7 11 16 20 23 33 42

17,733a 16,883 16,835 16,915 16,906 16,457 15,600 15,145

Mother — Parents — Parents — Parents

School — School — School — School

Tests — Tests — Tests

Medical — Medical — Medical — Medical

Subject — Subject — Subject — ———— — Subject — Subject — Subject

Census — ———— — Census

Spouse/ Partner

Motherc

Children

17,414b 15,568 15,503 14,761 14,370 12,537 11,407 11,419

Notes: a: Target Sample - immigrants with appropriate date of birth included for NCDS1-3.

b: Achieved Sample - at least one survey instrument partially completed. c: This could be the Cohort Member, their Spouse, or Partner.

BCS70 Follow-upsBCS70 Follow-ups and sources of information 1970-2000

BBS

(1970) Birth

CHES (1975)

5

CHES (1980)

10 Youthscan

(1986) 16

BCS70 (1996)

26

BCS70 (2000)

30

Mother — Parents — Parents — Parents

School — School

Tests — Tests — Tests

Medical — Medical — Medical — Medical

Subject — Subject — Subject — Subject

16,135a 13,135 14,875 11,628 9,003 11,261

Note: a Achieved Sample – when at least one survey instrument partially completed.

Women labour market states 16-30

1958 COHORT

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29Age

1970 COHORT

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

Age

Unemployed

Out of the labour force

Part time work

Full time work

Government training

Full time education

Percentage of years 16-30 spent unemployed, by region

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

North NW Y& H W Mid E Mid E Ang SW S- E London Wales Scot

%

Men BCS70 Women BCS70 Men NCDS Women NCDS

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0 5 10 15 20 25

£ per hour, 2001 prices

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f s

am

ple

Men

Women

Raw pay gap: 37%

Gender pay gap: born 1958

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0 5 10 15 20 25

£ per hour, 2001 prices

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f s

am

ple

Men

Women

Raw pay gap: 20%

Gender pay gap: born 1970

Female to male ratio for selected variables.

Cohort studies,1991 and 2000

0.00

1.00

2.00

Mat

hs a

bility

O leve

l

A leve

l

Diplo

ma

Degre

e

FT wor

k ex

perie

nce

Job

Tenu

re

rati

o NCDS 42NCDS 33BCS70 30

Unequal treatment by wage level: full-timers in the cohorts

Female to male pay ratio adjusted for human capital, by level of wages

0.6

0.65

0.7

0.75

0.8

0.85

Bottom Second Middle Fourth Top

Wage quintile

BCS 2000NCDS 1991NCDS 2000

Source

• Unpacking Unequal Pay between Men and Women across Cohort and Lifecycle. Cohort Studies Discussion Paper No 2, Centre for Longitudinal Studies, Institute of Education

• Peter Dolton, LSE• Gerry Makepeace, Cardiff Business School• Heather Joshi , Institute of Education, London

Lifetime migration in and out of Scotland in two birth cohort studies

NCDS BCS70 NCDS BCS70birth to 42 birth to 30 birth to 42 birth to 30

% of Scottish born'Stayers 'in Scotland 961 851 82% 87%Moved out 217 127 18% 13% Moved in 95 101 8% 10%

Scottish born 1178 978

n

Movers and stayers Scotland in NCDS and BCS70

By country of birth and location at 16 : sample nos

NCDS Location at age 42 BCS70 Location at age 30Scotland Rest of GB Total Scotland Rest of GB Total

Born in ScotlandScotland 16 750 118 670 56Not Known 16 200 32 177 22Rest GB 16 11 67 4 49

All Scottish born 961 217 1178 851 127 978Born in Rest of GB

Scotland 16 16 14 47 10Not Known 16 26 2591 10 2003Rest GB 16 53 6951 44 7287

All born in Rest of GB 95 9556 9651 101 9300 9401TOTAL 10829 10379

Highest qualification of movers in and out of Scotland,birth to age 42, 1958 cohort

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Other GB , Other GB9529

Scotland, Scotland 958

Scotland, other GB 216

Other GB, Scotland 95

Net Outflow 121

Location at birth and 42, sample size

0 no quals

1 nvq1/low grade cse

2 nvq2/o levels

3 nvq3/a levels

4 nvq4 - 6/degree +

Highest qualification of movers in and out of Scotland,birth to age 30, 1970 cohort

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

Other GB 0 & 30 9265 Scotland 0 & 30 ,851 Scotland 0, other GB30 127

Other GB 0 , Scotland30 101

Net Outflow 26

Location at birth and 30, sample size

0 no quals

1 nvq1/low grade cse

2 nvq2/o levels

3 nvq3/a levels

4 nvq4 - 6/degree +

Brain Drain?

• Graduates over-represented in both out-flows and in-flows

• In 1958 cohort higher proportion of graduates in smaller inflow means net flow has same composition as resident population

• In 1970 cohort net outflow is small and in opposite directions for different levels of education

Percentage of parents sharing child care in early 30s (female respondents only)

1958 1970

Both parents employed 46 53

One parent employed 24 30

Neither parent employed 52 54

Percentage unhappy in their partnership in early 30s

1958 1970

Men: Married 3 22

Cohabiting 3 18

Women: Married 2 24

Cohabiting 5 21

1946 Cohort

(36 years 1992)

1946 Cohort

(43 years 1989)

1958 Cohort

(33 years 1991)

1958 cohort

(42 years 2000)

1970 cohort

(30 years 2000)

MEN

Depression & anxiety*

8 10 7 14 14

Trouble with nerves etc

8 15 7 15 13

WOMEN

Depression & anxiety*

18 16 12 21 20

Trouble with nerves etc

16 28 19 29 29

*PSE and PSF in 1946 cohort, Malaise in 1958 and 1970 cohorts

Reports (%) of mental illness

1946

cohort (36 years 1982)

1946

cohort (43 years 1989)

1958

cohort (33 years 1991)

1958

cohort (42 years 2000)

1970

cohort (30 years 2000)

MEN

Asthma 3 6 8 10 13

High blood pressure

3 9 5 11 5

WOMEN

Asthma 3 6 10 12 14

High blood pressure

5 13 6 12 10

Reports (%) of physical illnesses

0

10

20

30

40

50

NVQ 4 –NVQ 6

NVQ 2 Noqualifications

Highest qualification

Per

cent

age 1958 cohort

1970 cohort

Experience of ever been arrested in two cohorts by highest qualification: men

Average (mean) childhood height (cm) in relation to father’s social class

Father’s social 1958 cohort at 7 years 1970 cohort at 10 years

class MALES

I 124 140

II 124 140

IIInm 123 138

IIIm 123 138

IV 123 138

V 121 138

All classes 123 139

FEMALES

I 124 139

II 123 139

IIInm 123 139

IIIm 122 138

IV 122 138

V 121 137

All classes 112 139